US VASSALS BLOCK UKRAINE PEACE
Jeff Rich on why Britain and Europe cannot end the Ukraine war while Washington still sets the terms
Ian Proud, Sep 02, 2026
I sat down with historian Jeff Rich of The Burning Archive to discuss the seemingly intractable challenge of ending the war in Ukraine. Jeff spent 33 years as an Australian official before turning to global history. I spent 24 years as a British diplomat, including four and a half years at the British Embassy in Moscow after the Ukraine crisis began. We come at the problem from different directions but landed in the same place.
This is not a two-party war. It is a five-party war: Russia, Ukraine, the European Union, the United States and Britain. Each is trying to finish it on its own terms. None of them has built a peace process. That is why the search for a single “deal” keeps failing.
A single peace deal won’t be enough to settle four different conflicts at once, something I wrote about for Responsible Statecraft in June.
Jeff’s answer is similar to mine; a multi-treaty settlement.
He draws on the Peace of Westphalia in 1648 — the practical fact the catastrophe of the Thirty Year War was ended with several treaties, not one.
He also draws on the Cambodia settlement of the early 1990s. That war mixed a civil conflict, an East–West confrontation and a split inside the communist world.
The way out was a UN mandate and a UN transitional authority that gave China a face-saving off-ramp from the Khmer Rouge.
The parallel with Western sponsorship of the present Ukrainian government is uncomfortable, yet unavoidable. Peace for Ukraine will emerge from separate interlocking tracks: Russia–Ukraine terms to end the fighting; a deal on EU–Ukraine accession, which will be as complicated as ending the war; an agreement on the long-term Europe/UK relationship with Russia; neutrality for Ukraine in treaty form; and a long-term settlement between Washington and Moscow.
The historical fascists are preparing to take their revenge
SOTT – Signs of the Times, Thierry Meyssan, Voltairenet.org, Tue, 01 Sep 2026
Before our very eyes, the historical forces of fascism are reorganizing.The losers of World War II, those who massacred millions of Soviets, Chinese, and Jews, are once again in power in Japan, Israel, and Ukraine. They hope to take their revenge. It is up to us to denounce their preparations and prevent them from unleashing the apocalypse.
The losers of World War II are demanding revenge. They have no interest in it. They just want to win and reorganize the world hierarchically, with themselves at the top. Here’s what they have to say.
For the “militarists,” Japan never lost the war.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is a staunch supporter of the Emperor. Every August 15th, the anniversary of the surrender, she visits the Yasukuni Shrine. This shrine honors all those who gave their lives for the Emperor during the “Fifteen Years’ War” — that is, the invasion of the Far East and World War II. She regularly pays her respects at the graves of those convicted of crimes against humanity, something she is legally prohibited from doing since becoming Prime Minister.
This year, unable to attend, she sent offerings. Four of her ministers and about one hundred and fifty parliamentarians who were able to go, did so.
For them, the crimes of the Imperial Army never existed. They are merely fabrications by Japan’s enemies. But Koreans and Chinese have a different memory: the Imperial Army treated all those who did not acknowledge the Emperor’s divinity as subhuman.Japanese conscripts were trained to massacre and torture these individuals, and if they refused, they were severely beaten. In Nanjing, 100,000 women and children were raped and enslaved to satisfy the Emperor’s soldiers, and then 300,000 people were massacred. In Korea, Unit 731 performed vivisections on prisoners without anesthesia; crimes that inspired Dr. Mengele at Auschwitz.
The same crimes were repeated in Singapore, Malaysia, Indochina and Thailand, although the population did not have as strong a memory of them as in Korea and China.
The Japanese militarists are not seeking to repeat their crimes. They know full well that in modern times, they cannot demand the worship of an emperor who has acknowledged that he is no longer a god. But they are rearming their country.
While commemorating the massacres of Hiroshima and Nagasaki on August 6 and 9, Sanae Takaichi carefully avoided mentioning that they had been perpetrated by the United States under President Harry Truman. Similarly, unlike her predecessors, she expressed neither remorse nor offered any apology for Japan’s role in World War II.
Japan only admitted its defeat in 1945 with the declaration of socialist Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama on the 50th anniversary of the event, on August 15, 1995. This was called into question by liberal-democratic Prime Minister Shinzō Abe on the occasion of the appointment of the Minister of Self-Defense Forces on August 3, 2016. This is now the official position of Japan, defended by Shinzō Abe’s protégé, Sanae Takaichi [ 1 ] .
It was with full knowledge that Mrs. Takaichi violated the pacifism of the Japanese constitution and supplied military trucks to Ukrainian “integral nationalists” and soldiers to NATO HQ in Wiesbaden on May 29 [ 2 ] .
For the “revisionist Zionists,” it is time to resume the war against the “Zionists.”
The Kahanist (that is, the disciple of the terrorist rabbi Meir Kahane) Itamar Ben-Gvir, Minister of National Security, announced on August 28 that his men had located the wreck of the Altalena. This was a ship, chartered by the “Revisionist Zionists,” with nearly 900 militiamen on board, which the “Zionist” Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion had sunk before it reached Israel on June 22, 1948.
The “revisionist Zionists,” that is, the followers of the Ukrainian Vladimir Zeev Jabotinsky, and the “Zionists” proper, that is, the followers of the Hungarian Theodor Herzl, engaged in a fierce hatred. Herzl wanted a homeland where Jews would escape pogroms, while Jabotinsky wanted a Jewish empire like the Italian and German empires………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………And now
We can no longer ignore what is happening. The forces of historical fascism — not some nostalgic eccentrics clinging to parades in uniform, but those who aspire to continue the Second World War — have awakened. They have begun to rewrite history. They have used our indifference to erase the memory of their crimes.
Our immediate responsibility is to deny them any political responsibility before they attempt to take their revenge and trigger the apocalypse. We must demand immediate elections in Ukraine and Japan. Elections have been called in Israel, but we must ensure that the election campaign is fair.
References:……………………………………………….. https://www.sott.net/article/508192-The-historical-fascists-are-preparing-to-take-their-revenge
UKRAINE DEAL DEAD
Russia, in his view, would still prefer a compromise closer to Istanbul and the later Anchorage discussion than the occupation of the whole of Ukraine.
Governing a hostile country is not Moscow’s first choice.
George Beebe on Iran, Trump’s shrinking leverage, and the crash coming in Ukraine
Ian Proud, Sep 01, 2026, https://thepeacemonger.substack.com/p/ukraine-deal-dead?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=3221990&post_id=213666173&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1ise1&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
George Beebe was CIA Director for Russia analysis and is now Director of the Grand Strategy Programme at the Quincy Institute. In this conversation he describes a Trump Administration that wrote a coherent National Security Strategy and then walked away from it. This has left prospects for a credible peace deal for Ukraine remote at best.
“………………………………………………………………………………………. The United States is now in a cul-de-sac: damaged reputation, strained forces, a distracted White House, and no clean exit that does not involve concessions.
That matters for Ukraine because attention and political capital are finite within the Trump White House.
Beebe’s strategic case for ending the war has not changed. A forever proxy war leaves Europe unstable, incentivises a tighter Russia-China partnership, and makes a China-first American strategy impossible.
Russia, in his view, would still prefer a compromise closer to Istanbul and the later Anchorage discussion than the occupation of the whole of Ukraine.
Governing a hostile country is not Moscow’s first choice.
What has changed is Washington’s ability to deliver.
Iran has taken the oxygen out of the room.
Trump needs political juice to force a deal through a hostile Senate and a permanent bureaucracy that still treats detente with Russia as heresy.
Beebe does not think he has that juice.
Midterms loom.
The president is fighting an unpopular war with a precarious economy. Other countries are already pricing him as a lame duck.
If Moscow concludes the administration is not agreement-capable — cannot lock in NATO limits, cannot move sanctions — Plan B is the battlefield.
That is not the conquest of Kyiv. It is a rump Ukraine, too weak to be rebuilt as a Western military outpost, and a worse peace for Ukrainians, Europeans and Americans alike.
Then comes what Beebe calls it a hard crash.
Time is not on Ukraine’s side.
Manpower is failing.
Energy infrastructure is already in tatters ahead of another winter.
Russia can hit harder than Ukraine can endure.
When the gap between Western media victory narratives and the facts becomes undeniable, Washington does not usually say “we did our best.”
It goes into “do-something” mode.
That is how mismanaged wars become direct NATO-Russia crises.
I agree with him.
Europe has no plan.
It has a reflex: ask for more Patriots, flatter Trump, keep Kyiv fighting.
That is not friendship.
It is spending Ukrainian lives to delay an admission of failure.
Beebe’s alternative is old-fashioned and unfashionable: a concert among the United States, Russia and China, starting with Iran and Ukraine, based on self-interest rather than trust.
Whether this White House can still do that is the live question.
Turkey’s Erdogan signals further nuclear projects with Russia
Turkey is planning to expand its nuclear cooperation with Russia to build
more power plants, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Tuesday. The signal
of deepening ties with Russia is likely to raise concerns among Western
allies, who have been worried by Ankara´s closeness to Moscow as the war
in Ukraine rages. Rosatom, a Russian state corporation, is close to
completing the Akkuyu nuclear power station on Turkey´s Mediterranean
coast. Its four reactors are expected to generate around 10% of Turkey´s
electricity when it comes online.
Daily Mail 1st Sept 2026, https://www.dailymail.com/wires/ap/article-16096403/Turkeys-Erdogan-signals-nuclear-projects-Russia.html
North Korea hits out at Trump’s ‘pointless’ demands and vows to strengthen nuclear force
Trump has been seeking another summit with Kim Jong-un, following three meetings in 2018 and 2019
Kyu-seok Shim, 31 August 2026
North Korea declared on Monday that Washington’s hostile policy remains unchanged and pledged to continue strengthening its nuclear capabilities, rebuffing repeated American calls for denuclearization.
In a statement released via state media KCNA, a Foreign Ministry spokesperson accused Washington of maintaining a confrontational stance through demands for Pyongyang’s “complete denuclearisation,” criticism of its human rights record, and upcoming joint military exercises with South Korea and Japan.
“The Trump administration has thus fully reconfirmed its invariable hostile policy to wantonly violate the sovereignty, political system and security interests of the DPRK,” the spokesperson said, referring to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
The official described the country’s nuclear arsenal as “an absolute guarantee for defending its sovereignty,” adding that U.S. demands would not weaken its nuclear status………………………………………………………………………………………… https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/north-korea-trump-nuclear-force-hostile-us-policy-b3042186.html
US treasury chief claims Washington ‘unlikely to restart’ large-scale hostilities against Iran
Bessent said that illegal US sanctions are a replacement for a war of aggression that has failed to break Tehran
News Desk, AUG 20, 2026, https://thecradle.co/articles/us-treasury-chief-claims-washington-unlikely-to-restart-large-scale-hostilities-against-iran
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on 20 August that Washington will likely “not restart” large-scale military operations against Iran, as the White House shifts to a campaign of maximum economic sanctions.
If we are doing the maximum economic pressure, then that means that likely there will not be a large-scale kinetic restart,” Bessent said in an interview with CNBC’s Squawk on the Street news program.
Trump had announced hours earlier on Truth Social that Washington would impose major economic penalties on any country extending Tehran what he called “any type of lifeline.”
“This will be an ECONOMIC D-DAY, and we need all of our Allies to stand with the United States of America to isolate, and defeat, the Iran threat,” Trump wrote.
Bessent said he would lay out the details of the plan at a press conference, telling CNBC that the message to every US ally would be: “You are either with us or against us.”
“If you insist on doing business with [Iran], either transferring money, buying their oil or doing seaborne ship transfers, then the US Treasury and the US government … will put its full might and force toward enforcing against you,” he said.
He described the campaign as “the greatest coordinated economic isolation in the history of the world.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi dismissed the campaign the same day, writing on X that it would deliver Washington nothing but “further defeat.”
“The so-called ‘Economic D-Day’ is a diversion from America’s own crisis: unprecedented debt & surging interest costs,” Araghchi wrote, describing US “economic terrorism” as a threat to the global economy.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Washington had reached for economic warfare only after its military campaign failed to deliver.
“They claim Iran is on the verge of defeat and hanging by a thread, yet they are begging all their allies to help them,” he wrote on X, adding that the US had “named their next failure an ‘economic war.’”
Vice-Chairman of the Belt and Road Institute in Sweden Hussein Askary notes that the US naval blockade imposed in April has pushed Iran to shift its trade overland, sharply increasing freight traffic on the China–Iran railway and raising the strategic value of Eurasian land corridors as Tehran works to keep supply routes open beyond the reach of maritime pressure.
The Pentagon is reviewing whether to scale back its presence in Persian Gulf states after Iranian retaliatory strikes battered the largest US bases overseas, with sources saying a westward pullback is under consideration.
A regional intelligence source told Press TV that the Pentagon has concluded no military plan exists that could guarantee open shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil.
Hormuz Catastrophe: Netanyahu & Trump Knew Risks, Escalated Anyway
SCHEERPOST, August 25, 2026, Dan Steinbock Informed Comment
Iran has not collapsed, while Hormuz has become a global economic choke point. The central failure was not ignorance of the risks, but the political decision in Washington and Tel Aviv to gamble that coercive military power could overcome them.
So, why did they set the stage for the catastrophe that was both unwarranted and unnecessary?
The Israeli conventional war game
In February 2024 – after 4 months of the Israeli obliteration of Gaza – over 100 senior military and government officials participated in a report by Reichman University’s Institute for Counter-Terrorism which outlined in painful detail how unprepared the Israeli home front was for an all-out war with Hezbollah.
This lethal scenario was written long before Hamas’ October 7th attack on Israel. It is the result of a three-year study. The 130-page report was the work of six think tanks made up of over 100 terrorism experts, former senior security officials, academics, and government officials who examined critical aspects related to the level of preparedness for the IDF and the home front in the event of a multi-front war.
The project was led by Professor Boaz Ganor, a world-renowned counter-terrorism expert. In the months leading up to October 7, he presented his research to relevant military and political authorities in an attempt to rouse intelligence and decision-makers from complacency and misconceptions.
The Netanyahu government ignored him and the analysis.
The Israel-Iran nuclear war game
In late 2023 – almost in parallel with the Hamas attack – a high-level U.S. war game was conducted in Washington. The participants included members of U.S. executive branch, Republicans and Democrats in the Congress, leading academics, think-tank experts and Pentagon officials. The game started in 2027 with Israeli intelligence reports that Iran was mating nuclear warheads to its long-range missiles. Consequently, Israel targets Iran’s key nuclear and missile sites with U.S. standoff hypersonic missiles.
Intriguingly, initially the U.S. participants presumed that self-restraint would prevail in this high-level war game. Yet, the simulation’s cold logic compelled them into a sequence of steps that quickly went nuclear. The adverse consequences were felt by millions of civilians in both Israel and Iran.
The lessons of the war game were ignored by both the Netanyahu government and the Trump administration.
Why did Netanyahu court the U.S. into the Iran conflict fully knowing the consequences?
Both war games were common knowledge among the US and Israeli military elites well before October 7, 2023. I referenced each in my book The Fall of Israel (2024). So, why were the lessons of these games effectively ignored?
The evidence points less to strategic ignorance than to political and strategic risk-taking. In particular, The Fall of Israel shows that Netanyahu’s government repeatedly treated regional escalation as a means of escaping an increasingly untenable post-October 7 position: prolong Gaza invasion, weaken Hezbollah, expand Israel’s northern security zone and ultimately confront Iran.
I argued that Netanyahu rejected a Gaza ceasefire while expecting Trump’s return to provide greater freedom of action against Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.
But the risks were hardly invisible even in 2023. The high-level U.S. war game in late projected that an Israel-Iran confrontation could rapidly escape Israeli and American control and go nuclear. The Hezbollah scenario likewise anticipated thousands of rockets, saturation of Israeli defenses, attacks on infrastructure and paralysis of ports and trade.
Netanyahu’s calculation therefore appears brutally simple: the risks of escalation were judged preferable to the political risks of de-escalation. A wider war could restore deterrence, destroy adversaries, preserve his coalition and keep the strategic initiative.
The catastrophic externalities—Lebanon, Iran, Hormuz, the Gulf and the world economy—were treated as manageable collateral risks. They were not Israel’s problem. They were the world’s problem.
Why did Trump take the bait when Washington understood the stakes?
Trump inherited an enormous institutional warning system. U.S. officials, Pentagon planners and bipartisan experts had already modeled escalation from an Israeli attack on Iran through retaliation, Israeli counterstrikes, nuclear signaling and ultimately nuclear exchange.
The war game initially assumed rational self-restraint; but its own sequence demonstrated how quickly that assumption could collapse.
Yet Trump appears to have made the classic great-power error: confusing overwhelming tactical superiority with strategic control.
To the interventionists, the political attractions were obvious—destroy Iran’s nuclear capacity, reinforce Israel, demonstrate American dominance and claim a decisive victory where previous administrations had failed.
But the premise that Iran could be compelled to surrender under bombardment underestimated asymmetric retaliation, regional proxies, geography and the extraordinary leverage of Hormuz.
The result is the opposite of the promised quick victory. By August, Trump’s approval had fallen to 33%, while 80% of Americans said they expected the war to be prolonged. Earlier Pew polling found 59% of Americans believed using force against Iran was the wrong decision and 62% disapproved of Trump’s handling of it.
Ironically, Washington has converted a military operation into a strategic endurance contest in which Iran possesses an exceptionally powerful economic weapon: Hormuz.
Soaring oil/gas prices, plunging growth, 6+ million displaced……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
What options remain and how badly has America damaged itself
There are four remaining trajectories. First, negotiated de-escalation: reopen Hormuz, freeze attacks, restore oil/LNG flows and negotiate Iran’s nuclear status.
Second, prolonged managed conflict: intermittent strikes, sanctions and restricted shipping, producing structurally higher energy prices.
Third, regional expansion: Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and Gulf infrastructure become increasingly active fronts.
Fourth, the tail risk: escalation toward nuclear confrontation—the scenario the war games warned could arise from supposedly controlled conventional operations.
What is urgently needed is an internationally mediated settlement involving Iran, the Gulf states, Europe, China, Russia and the UN—not another unilateral U.S. military ultimatum. As I argued in The Fall of Israel, unipolar solutions are increasingly incapable of managing a multipolar Middle East………………………………………………… https://scheerpost.com/2026/08/25/hormuz-catastrophe-netanyahu-trump-knew-risks-escalated-anyway/
Why Britain and Europe MUST talk to Russia, and why no one wants to make the first move
In conversation with Mark Galeotti
Ian Proud, Aug 21, 2026. https://thepeacemonger.substack.com/p/why-britain-and-europe-must-talk?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=3221990&post_id=212103666&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1ise1&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
After four and a half years of war in Ukraine, European leaders are still largely stuck repeating the same empty mantras: “as long as it takes,” “no talks until Russia withdraws,” “dialogue is a reward for good behaviour.”
In my latest conversation on The Peacemonger channel, leading Russia expert Mark Galeotti explains why this approach has become deeply self-harming — and why someone, somewhere, is going to have to break the logjam.
Galeotti, honorary professor at UCL, director of Mayak Intelligence and host of the widely followed podcast In Moscow’s Shadows, is characteristically clear-eyed.
The war is no longer delivering strategic benefits for Europe (I’d argue that it has been a disaster from the start).
Russia is slowly advancing in the Donbas.
Ukraine is paying a catastrophic human and economic price.
Europe is bankrolling the conflict while outsourcing its diplomacy to Washington and preparing to phase out the last of its Russian gas imports — a move with predictably severe economic consequences.
Yet no one wants to be the first to say out loud what many now admit privately: that a negotiated end is necessary, and that talking to Russia is not a concession but a necessity.
Galeotti is particularly interesting on Britain’s potential role.
Outside the European Union and still regarded by Moscow as both a serious antagonist and a serious player, the UK has a rare opportunity to act as a pragmatic interlocutor.
The “only Nixon could go to China” logic applies.
Under a possible Burnham government more focused on domestic priorities, that opportunity may be greater than under previous administrations — but it will still require political courage.
The conversation ranges widely beyond the battlefield.
We discuss the urgent need to restore military-to-military contacts, law-enforcement cooperation and academic exchanges — the practical, professional channels that have been allowed to atrophy.
Galeotti is scathing about the hollowing-out of British diplomatic and academic expertise on Russia, and the long-term cost of cutting off the next generation of specialists from time on the ground.
He is equally clear-eyed about the Russia–China relationship: transactional, competitive and far more fragile than the “friendship without limits” rhetoric suggests.
Western policymakers who talk of a seamless “Dragon Bear” alliance are, in his view, peddling dangerous nonsense.
When the war eventually ends — and Galeotti, like me, does not expect it this year — European politicians will face the awkward task of polishing a strategic failure as success, as I have long said.
The longer the fighting continues, the more expensive and politically toxic the post-war period will become.
This is a sober, realistic conversation free of both Russophobia and wishful thinking.
If you want to understand why Europe is stuck, and what it would actually take to start moving toward a settlement, I strongly recommend watching the full discussion which you can find here.
Saudi Arabia in no hurry to bow to Trump’s demands on nuclear deal
For decades, Arab states held fast to the belief that the road to America
goes through Israel. Establishing ties with their Jewish neighbour, so the
theory went, was the surest way to gain the White House’s favour.
The Saudi-American agreement on nuclear co-operation announced last month tests that theory. A day after the deal was signed, President Trump, stung by
Israeli criticism, added a new condition. There would be no civil nuclear
plant for Saudi Arabia unless the kingdom joined his Abraham Accords, the
agreements under which the Gulf states would make peace with Israel.
The belated demand has thrown the future of the agreement into doubt. Officials
and analysts say the slow process to have the deal ratified by the US
Congress is under way, but the White House has tied itself into knots by
announcing a new condition that was not in the original agreement.
Times 20th Aug 2026,
https://www.thetimes.com/world/middle-east/article/saudi-us-nuclear-deal-trump-israel-demand-ppplvcts0
Russia Pushes Ahead With Uzbekistan Nuclear Plans Despite Money Troubles
By Eurasianet -Oil Price 18th Aug 2026
- Rosatom is developing specialized programs to train Uzbek personnel to operate a planned nuclear plant combining large VVER-1000 reactors with smaller RITM-200N units.
- A training center in Uzbekistan is planned to eventually accommodate hundreds of nuclear-industry specialists.
- The initiative comes as Rosatom cuts costs and postpones or abandons some investments in response to a difficult economic environment.
Despite apparent financing difficulties hovering over the construction of nuclear reactors in Uzbekistan, the Russian nuclear agency Rosatom has announced it is developing a training program for Uzbek technicians who will eventually operate the plant.
Rosatom specialists need to develop new, specific training modules for what is envisioned as an “integrated nuclear plant” featuring the operation of both large-scale and small modular reactors. “This requires developing training materials tailored to the specifics of small reactors, integrating knowledge from related fields, and strengthening the practical training component,” according to a statement published by Uzbekistan’s nuclear energy agency…………………..
Questions about financing have dogged Rosatom in 2026, prompting concerns about delays in the Uzbek reactor project. Observers widely believe that the Kremlin’s continuing meat-grinder campaign in Ukraine and accompanying Western sanctions are severely limiting Rosatom’s operations. In July, Rosatom chief Alexei Likhachev announced cutbacks due to “poor economic conditions.” Without providing specifics, he indicated that several projects would have to be abandoned or postponed, adding that priority for continuing projects would be given to those offering the greatest chance of profitability by 2030.
Rosatom officials have not indicated where the Uzbek integrated plant stands in the company’s financial calculus. The news that a training center is in the works, however, suggests that the Kremlin considers the Uzbek project to be, at the very least, geopolitically significant. https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Nuclear-Power/Russia-Pushes-Ahead-With-Uzbekistan-Nuclear-Plans-Despite-Money-Troubles.html
Delusional’: Iran Fires Back At Trump’s Make ‘Hormuz Strait A Territory Of The US’ Ambitions
by Tyler Durden, Monday, Aug 17, 2026 – https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-fires-back-trumps-make-hormuz-strait-territory-us-ambitions-delusions
Predictably, Iran has on Saturday issued a full-throated rejection of President Trump’s Friday evening words related to the status on the conflict and energy transit in the region.
In a speech on New York’s Long Island, Trump introduced the idea of declaring the Strait of Hormuz a US territory. “After we finish defeating Iran, which is being very badly defeated — pretty soon, I’ll be declaring the Hormuz Strait a territory of the United States,” Trump told a crowd of law enforcement officer
“Essentially, that’s what it is. We have the blockade. No ships get through unless we want them to,” he added. He claimed oil prices were coming “way down”.
Some pundits pointed to what seemed like classic hyperbole and his penchant for floating extreme scenarios in off-the-cuff fashion; however, Trump made the statement without any qualifiers other than it will happen when Iran is “badly defeated” by the United States. That seems to be the big if in the future scenario.
A Saturday X response from Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi asserted the US has zero authority to claim the strait:
“The Strait of Hormuz has been Iranian, is Iranian, and will remain Iranian,” he wrote, as translated from Persian to English. “This strait will only be closed and opened under Iran’s command.”
The Iranian official then claimed all of Trump’s assumptions about the conflict were delusional, showing that Washington does “not accept the reality of defeat” and so must stop indulging in its “delusions”.
The Iranians have been reiterating that they will continue to enforce their blockade, also as the US Navy continues blocking imports and exports from Iranian ports.
Tehran continues to present the Oman deal – still pending finalization – as completely independent of US desires and conditions, and so better not interfere:
Iran has reached an agreement with Oman on a shipping route map for the Strait of Hormuz after weeks of technical negotiations, Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei has told state-run Defa Press.
“Despite US obstruction, the talks have made positive progress over the past three weeks and an agreement has been reached on the shipping route map.”
He added that both sides were still negotiating outstanding issues, including a statement to be issued by Tehran and Muscat, noting that exchanges between the two countries would continue until the process was finalized.
Given the two sides continue holding to conflicting absolutist demands and conditions, there’s a likelihood of further fighting – though it could continue to at a limited, tit-for-tat and slow pace.
Some Republican hawks are calling for some kind of bold military action by Trump, such as ordering the takeover of Kharg Island in order to show the Iranians and the American public that Tehran does not have the upper hand ahead of US November midterm elections.
However, the nearly six months of war so far has tended to demonstrate that each new escalation has not tended to go well for Washington, as Iran digs in its heels and escalates a response in turn.
US says lower oil prices, not Iran’s nuclear program, are now top priority in war
The top US priority now in the Iran war is no longer its nuclear program but to bring gasoline prices down for American consumers, the vice president said Thursday, with the treasury secretary adding that new economic punishment to wear down Tehran is imminent.
The comments by Vice President JD Vance and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent illustrate the powerful leverage Tehran has gained by shutting down the Strait of Hormuz.
Preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon – consistently touted by President Donald Trump as his main reason for the war – now takes a back seat to getting oil flowing again freely through the strait, Vance said on Fox News.
Vance’s comments underscored the stark reality that the war now centers on control of the strait, the critical fuel supply conduit that was open before Trump started the war along with Israel in late February.
Iran has all but shut it down in retaliation and thus found a crucial bargaining chip against Trump as he struggles to find a way out of the war and shies away from resuming large-scale attacks.
The 80-year-old president’s approval rating is plummeting, the war is unpopular among Americans and midterm elections are approaching in November.
Republicans fear Trump and the war, which has caused gasoline prices to soar, will cost them their control of Congress.
“I know that oil is down today and it’s way down from the highs in the early days of the conflict,” Vance said on Fox News. “That’s goal number one – keep oil and gas cheap for Americans all over our country.”
“And then obviously goal number two is ensure that Iran never gets a nuclear weapon,” he added.
‘Low-keying it’
The vice president has been among the members of the administration most skeptical of the offensive launched against Iran in late February.
These remarks, however, appear to confirm the more cautious approach now favored by the US president, which involves maintaining strong economic pressure on Iran by blockading its ports and preventing it from selling oil.
Heralding more economic punishment, Bessent threatened to subject Iran to economic isolation “like the world has never seen before.” He said new measures are expected next week.
Only days ago Trump had said an agreement to reopen the strait was imminent. Now his administration seems to be digging in, with diplomacy on hold as he hopes economic suffering will cause Iran to yield.
“We are low-keying it,” Trump said Sunday. “We are only semi-negotiating with them. We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money,” Trump told the news outlet Axios.
The US military reportedly burned through stockpiles of costly high-tech missiles and other weapons in the months since the war started at a cost of billions and is now reportedly running low, limiting Trump’s options for resuming attacks on Iran.
“Sometimes we’re focused on the energy piece of it because we want Americans to be able to afford the price of oil and gas. Sometimes we’re obviously focused on the military… on the nuclear program,” Vance also said.
Trump had said recently he would hold off on attacking Iran again only if an agreement were reached quickly to reopen the strait.
Now Iran has set a list of conditions for reopening the passageway that the Trump administration is unlikely to accept: an end to the war on all fronts, the lifting of the US blockade of Iranian ports, the end of sanctions, the release of frozen assets and compensation for wartime damage.
Those conditions echo the terms of a so-called memorandum of understanding which was reached in June and collapsed as fighting resumed. It included a provision to create a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran.
Benjamin Netanyahu describes UK as ‘first Islamic republic to get a nuclear weapon’
Israeli PM criticised by political rival for attacking an international ally and overseeing ‘horrific diplomatic failure’
Emma Graham-Harrison in Jerusalem and Rowena Mason, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/aug/14/benjamin-netanyahu-describes-uk-first-islamic-republic-to-get-nuclear-weapon
The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, called the UK “the Islamic republic of Britain” in a podcast interview, where he also described the country as the “first Islamic republic to get a nuclear weapon”.
His comments, made during an interview for Israel’s army radio, played into a common far-right Islamophobic trope about Britain’s small Muslim population.
Netanyahu praised positive coverage of Israel by the journalist Randolph Churchill, the son of former prime minister Winston Churchill, over half a century ago, then said: “Go find that in today’s Britain, in what is called the Islamic republic of Britain.”
Rather than challenge Netanyahu’s comments, the host questioned whether he is unfairly singling out the UK, asking: “Isn’t all of Europe is like that?”
Netanyahu replies by doubling down. “Yes, but you know someone said the first Islamic republic with nuclear weapons will be the Islamic republic of Britain.”
Pakistan, officially the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, has had a nuclear arsenal since the 1990s.
Relations between the UK and Israel have been increasingly strained in recent months, especially since Andy Burnham took over in No 10. Shortly before becoming prime minister, he apologised for Labour’s initial response to Israel’s military action in Gaza, saying the party “didn’t get it right” and needed to “do better” under his leadership, signalling a significant shift in the UK’s approach to the Middle East.
In July, he said he would “do more to put pressure on the Israeli government”, including through further sanctions on individuals and entities, as well as a potential ban on the trade of goods with illegal settlements.
The US vice-president, JD Vance, made remarks similar to Netanyahu’s comments during the 2024 presidential campaign, saying the UK could become the first “truly Islamist country that will get a nuclear weapon”.
London’s mayor, Sadiq Khan, has also been a frequent target of racialised attacks from rightwing leaders abroad, including Donald Trump, seeking to gain political advantage from Islamophobic lies.
Muslim leaders in the UK have said that hate crimes targeting their community are hitting new levels amid a rise in far-right rhetoric and growing support for anti-immigrant political parties.
Avi Dabush, who is running for the Knesset with Israel’s opposition Democrats party, attacked Netanyahu for mocking a critical ally at a time when Israel faces unprecedented global isolation. “That’s what happens when there’s a horrific diplomatic failure, and an inability to rally countries in the world in favour of our interests,” he said in a social media post.
Leading the most far-right government in Israel’s history, Netanyahu has alienated traditional allies while aligning with far-right figures, including some with a history of antisemitism.
The British Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office said: “These comments are completely unacceptable and we have raised them with the Israeli government.”
The Prime Minister’s Office did not respond to requests for comment on whether Netanyahu’s statement represented the official position of the Israeli government.
‘Menace to the World’: With Iran Talks Stalled, Trump Vows to Declare Strait of Hormuz a US Territory
“He absolutely needs to be impeached, removed, and locked up,” said one progressive critic, calling the president “a completely unhinged lunatic.”
Jessica Corbett, Aug 14, 2026, https://www.commondreams.org/news/donald-trump-strait-of-hormuz
In yet another remark that triggered alarm around the world, President Donald Trump said Friday that he planned to declare the Strait of Hormuz—which Iran has blockaded for much of the past five months over his and Israel’s illegal war—a US territory.
Just two days after the latest inflation figures demonstrated, in the words of one expert, “Trump’s catastrophic mismanagement of our economy,” the president ignored the economic fallout from his war, which led Iran to restrict ship traffic through the strait, driving up fuel prices worldwide.
“We’re bringing the prices way down,” he told a Long Island crowd. Trump also said that “after we finish defeating Iran, which is being very badly defeated, pretty soon, I’ll be declaring the Hormuz Strait a territory of the United States.”
Some critics responded to clips of the comments on X by mocking Trump—an infamous liar. Congressman Ted Lieu (D-Calif.) quipped, “Awesome! And the Easter Bunny is real.”
Ryan Costello, policy director at the National Iranian American Council, said that “this jingoism rings a bit hollow when most of the US bases near the strait have been essentially abandoned due to danger from Iranian missiles and drones.”
Progressive political commentator Kyle Kulinski declared that “he absolutely needs to be impeached, removed, and locked up. He’s a completely unhinged lunatic, and he’s a sadistic violent menace to the world.”
After high initial claims about lower prices, Trump admitted that gasoline has soared due to his war, but said: “For you to pay a tiny little bit more for your gasoline, just remember, you’re doing it so that a very evil country cannot have a—a country, really it’s the No. 1 state sponsor of terror in the world—we don’t want to have them have a nuclear weapon. So, remember that when you have to pay a little bit more, you’re at $4, it’s OK. I’ll never apologize. I did the right thing.”
Trump’s threat over the strait between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman came just before a monthlong ceasefire between the US and Iran is set to expire on Monday. A senior White House official told Politico that the situation is “static.”
“It doesn’t matter how close or how far we are,” said the official, who has heard no mention of a potential extension of the ceasefire. “What matters is if Iran wants to come to the table and agree to a deal. Right now, they haven’t done that.”
The Associated Press reported Friday that “the Trump administration appears to be reaching out to a broader swath of countries that might be able to help pressure Tehran,” and Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, told the outlet that “everyone is just urging both sides to stop this reckless game of chicken.”
In addition to launching an illegal war on Iran in February, and invading Venezuela in January to abduct its president, Trump has made threats against various other nations during his second term, including Canada, Cuba, Colombia, Greenland, and Mexico. He’s also threatened to seize the Panama Canal and killed hundreds of people by blowing up boats allegedly smuggling drugs.
‘U.S. Out of Korea’
August 15, 2026, by Bruce K. Gagnon https://space4peace.blogspot.com/2026/08/us-out-of-korea.html
Currently in South Korea national protest actions are being held at U.S. bases around the country as part of ‘U.S. Out of Korea’ campaign being organized by a vast coalition of peace groups.
The numbers vary but it is believed that between 48,000-60,000 US military personnel and their families now live on Camp Humphreys. (When regular war games are held the numbers rise.) This would make Camp Humphreys the largest U.S. base outside of the continental United States.
Much of the base expansion was due to the closing of the Yongsan U.S. Army base in downtown Seoul. That base had become a toxic mess and since closing it is still partially unavailable for new usage due to the U.S. essentially refusing to clean-up the damages. They have left it to the ROK (Republic of Korea) government to deal with. That is after the U.S. forced the South Korean government to pay about 90% of the costs to relocate Yongsan to Camp Humphreys.
Of course one reason for the move was the toxic mess at Yongsan. But other reasons I have heard was to move the base about 90 minutes to the south thus making it more difficult for North Korea to hit the base in any war. Plus the ROK government didn’t like having Seoul as a prime target.
In 2015 I had the honor to participate in some of these events and below is a report I posted on this blog on August 12, 2015.
Bruce
We were taken to U.S.’s Osan Air Force Base in Pyeongtaek for a guided tour by a prominent local activist. We were driven around the perimeter of the bulging base that is now adding a second runway – likely as a result of Obama’s ‘pivot’ of Pentagon forces into the Asia-Pacific to encircle China. (More airfields are needed for Pentagon warplanes.) In order to make the base expansion possible the U.S. has forced the South Korean government to take even more lands from local farmers. Local citizens and their supporters resisted this land grab by waging a long fierce campaign but their villages and rice fields were eventually stolen.
Osan AFB currently has F-16 and A-10 warplanes stationed there as well as the high-flying U-2 spy planes. In addition the air base hosts PAC-3 (Patriot third generation) missile defense systems that are aimed at China. Their job is to take out the retaliatory response following a U.S. first-strike attack against Chinese nuclear forces. (The U.S. has also recently created a Space Force unit at Osan AFB.)
The tour continued to the nearby US Army base called Camp Humphreys that is also undergoing major expansion. Similar to Osan AFB, the U.S. forced the grabbing of two rice-farming villages near the Army base to provide additional lands for the base expansion. These new facilities at Camp Humphreys will allow the U.S. to move its current base inside downtown Seoul southward making it more difficult for North Korea to retaliate against the U.S. bases following a Pentagon attack on the north.
We had dinner with one rice farmer who lost his land when his village was taken. He and others moved to another nearby location but they couldn’t replace their rice farms in the local area. The farmer, now the mayor of his current small village, had to buy new rice land two hours away and must make that long drive back and forth to work in his rice fields. I was told he spent time in prison for “obstructing” the expansion of the Army base during their protest campaign.
The Pentagon currently has in South Korea about 70 bases and military facilities. In order to pay for the current expansion of its bases the U.S. has demanded that the South Korean government pay for the big changes taking place at these military outposts. (My liberal Democrat Congresswoman Chellie Pingree calls it ‘burden sharing by the host nation’.) Thus for the Korean people it is a double insult – not only is their government an occupied client state of the U.S. empire but the people must increasingly pay for unwanted toxic and dangerous U.S. military operations inside of their country.
Our guide today several times, while driving us around the perimeter of the two bases, said, “The U.S. is a bad country.” I immediately thought how much I wished the American people could take this tour and hear his words. This remarkable activist also spent time in prison for trying to protect his people from the American assault on their culture and way of life. I was told that he helps take care of the elderly farmers who were not able to purchase new rice fields and now struggle to find ways to make money in order to survive.
I came away from Pyeongtaek feeling sad, ashamed of the U.S., and disgusted with those many American people who don’t really care what happens to the people around the world who are displaced by U.S. military bases – or are killed by the soldiers that make war from these outposts on behalf of corporate capitalism.
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