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An Iranian missile attack on the UK is no longer far-fetched. 

It is unsurprising that Iran considers the UK bases used by US bombers to attack
the country – RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire and Diego Garcia in the
Indian Ocean – to be “legitimate targets”.

Such threats might have been
dismissed in the past as unrealistic bombast, but in a year when warfare in
the Gulf and Ukraine has been dominated by drones, along with cruise and
ballistic missiles, nations that once believed themselves safe have
suddenly become vulnerable. Iran fired two missiles at Diego Garcia in
March which failed in flight or were shot down, but the Iranians clearly
believed they had the range to reach the island. Diego Garcia is 2,350
miles from Tehran, while London is 2,750 miles away.

iNews 25th July 2026, https://inews.co.uk/opinion/iranian-missile-attack-uk-no-longer-far-fetched-4660624

July 29, 2026 Posted by | Iran, UK, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Trump threat to hit Pickaxe renews calls in Iran for nuclear bomb, NPT exit

Official position remains unchanged

Before Ali Khamenei’s death, Iranian officials and nuclear negotiators consistently maintained that his fatwa was a permanent religious ruling rather than a temporary political decision.

According to their interpretation, not only the production and use of nuclear weapons but even their possession solely for deterrence is forbidden under Islamic law. They argued that Iran’s deterrence should instead rest on missile capabilities, technological advances and human capital.

Maryam Sinaiee, Iran International, Jul 23, 2026, https://www.iranintl.com/en/202607237263

President Donald Trump’s threat to strike Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain nuclear-linked facility has intensified hardline calls for Tehran to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and develop a nuclear weapon.

The debate gained fresh momentum after Trump warned Tuesday that the United States would target the deeply buried facility, known in Persian as Mount Kolang Gaz La, if Iran sought to restore its nuclear program there.

Advocates of this view argue that the recent wars demonstrated that conventional military capabilities alone no longer provide sufficient deterrence, making a nuclear option increasingly necessary. Others stop short of openly advocating nuclear weapons but argue that Iran should at least leave the NPT in response to growing US threats.

The arguments echo comments made by Fereydoun Abbasi, the former head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran and a politician closely associated with Saeed Jalili’s hardline camp, months before he was killed in Israeli strikes during the 12-day war in June 2025.

In January 2025, Abbasi argued that under the new security environment, “the dangers of not building a bomb and lacking strong deterrence are far greater than the costs of acquiring it,” warning that weak deterrence would only encourage direct aggression.

Abbasi also maintained that Iran had long ago crossed the scientific and technical threshold required to build a nuclear weapon, arguing that the remaining obstacle was no longer technical but rather “a strategic decision.”

In his view, when threats from Israel and its allies become existential, missile deterrence and reliance on regional allies are no longer sufficient, leaving the country increasingly vulnerable without a nuclear deterrent.

Social media campaign targets negotiating officials

Many hardline social media users now argue that Iran should build a nuclear bomb as quickly as possible. They have also criticized officials they describe as “eager for negotiations”—including President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi—for failing to put withdrawal from the NPT on the government’s agenda.

One X user writing under the name Ayyar reacted to Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei’s statement that Iran remained committed to the NPT.

“Just hours after Baghaei declared that Iran is still a member of the NPT, Trump threatened to bomb the Pickaxe Mountain nuclear facility,” the user wrote. “They killed the country’s leader along with thousands of Iranians and repeatedly struck our nuclear facilities. What exactly must the enemy do before we leave the NPT? Are you asleep?”

Another user, writing under the name Sam, argued: “Why are we afraid of leaving the NPT? Afraid of a global consensus against Iran? Staying in the treaty hasn’t prevented that. We have no choice but to build nuclear weapons for comprehensive deterrence. Nuclear weapons could be the final answer.”

Another account, Seyed Mehrdad, wrote: “The answer to a nuclear threat is not threatening regional infrastructure. Deterrence lies in leaving the NPT and conducting a live nuclear test.”

Other users argued that Iran should not remain without nuclear weapons if countries such as Turkey or Saudi Arabia eventually acquire them, insisting that “missile power alone cannot guarantee deterrence.”

Another post claimed that nuclear-capable bombers would not threaten Iran if the country already possessed nuclear weapons, reflecting a broader argument among hardliners that only an atomic arsenal could prevent further US or Israeli attacks.

Debate spreads beyond social media

The discussion has also spread into conservative media. On June 28, the IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency published an opinion piece titled “There Is No Alternative but to Build an Atomic Bomb,” arguing that Iran required nuclear deterrence to secure the “peace of mind” necessary to resolve other disputes through negotiations.

Fars later clarified that the article had appeared in its interactive opinion section and did not represent the agency’s official editorial position.

Other conservative outlets, including Kayhan, and hardline members of parliament have generally avoided explicitly endorsing nuclear weapons. They have, however, increasingly referred to concepts such as “redefining deterrence,” “reviewing nuclear commitments” and “revising the country’s defense doctrine.”

Calls for NPT withdrawal intensify

Trump’s latest warning against Pickaxe Mountain has also prompted some conservative figures to publicly raise the possibility of leaving the NPT.

Political analyst Mohammad Hossein Khoshvaght, who has close ties to the late supreme leader’s family, questioned whether conventional responses to US attacks would simply encourage further aggression, asking whether such a cycle could continue “until Iran is brought down.”

Former senior Revolutionary Guards commander Ghorbanali Salavatian urged Iranian authorities to formally notify international organizations that Iran would withdraw from the NPT if the United States attacked Pickaxe Mountain.

He added that such a withdrawal should occur “without delay” if an attack took place.

Khamenei’s fatwa returns to focus

The debate has also reopened questions surrounding the religious prohibition on nuclear weapons issued by the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Following Khamenei’s death, some social media users argued that Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new supreme leader, should revoke or revise his father’s fatwa declaring nuclear weapons religiously forbidden in light of the changed security environment.

One user wrote in March that because Ali Khamenei was no longer a living source of emulation, his fatwa was no longer binding. The user described the pursuit of nuclear deterrence as “a national demand and the right of the Iranian people.”

The issue had already surfaced in September 2025, when 70 members of parliament argued that Khamenei’s previous ruling should be changed or reinterpreted and demanded authorization for the development and possession of an atomic bomb to establish “nuclear deterrence.”

The lawmakers argued that while the use of nuclear weapons could remain religiously forbidden, producing and possessing them solely for deterrence should be treated differently.

Official position remains unchanged

Before Ali Khamenei’s death, Iranian officials and nuclear negotiators consistently maintained that his fatwa was a permanent religious ruling rather than a temporary political decision.

According to their interpretation, not only the production and use of nuclear weapons but even their possession solely for deterrence is forbidden under Islamic law. They argued that Iran’s deterrence should instead rest on missile capabilities, technological advances and human capital.

Under Shiite jurisprudence, however, a new marja, or source of emulation, may issue rulings that differ from those of his predecessors.

Araghchi acknowledged this possibility in an interview with Al Jazeera in April, saying any change to the nuclear fatwa would depend on the position adopted by Iran’s new supreme leader.

For now, the government’s formal position remains unchanged. Baghaei said Monday that Iran remained a member of the NPT and recognized its obligations under the treaty, although he added that Tehran continually reviewed its foreign policy and national security options.

Baghaei also said Wednesday that no nuclear activity was taking place at Pickaxe Mountain, accusing Washington of using the site as a “fabricated pretext” for further attacks and sabotage.

July 27, 2026 Posted by | Iran, politics | Leave a comment

The Chris Hedges Report: Is Iran Becoming Another ‘Forever War’?

 July 22, 2026, https://chrishedges.substack.com/p/is-iran-becoming-another-forever

The Trump administration has embroiled the United States in another quagmire, similar to the Vietnam War and recent wars in the Middle East, by going to war against Iran. Now that the June 17th Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Iran is dead, the US and Iran seem to be stuck in a tit for tat war where the US bombs Iran and Iran retaliates against US and allies’ in the region. As Gulf States that are being targeted by Iran mount pressure on President Trump to stop the attacks, and a global economic crisis looms, the US is running out of options and time.

For a greater understanding of the balance of power in the region, the US’ military capacity and possible outcomes of the US-Iran War, Chris Hedges speaks with Professor John Mearsheimer in this episode of The Chris Hedges Report. Mearsheimer argues that what happens in the coming week is crucial in determining whether there can be a peaceful resolution to the conflict. At present, Iran has the upper hand, and the United States lacks the capacity to follow through on President Trump’s threats to escalate if Iran doesn’t acquiesce to Trump’s demand that it concede. If the US does escalate, then there is a real risk that in addition to a renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Yemen may close the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, cutting off oil flows as strategic reserves around the world dwindle, which could trigger a global depression.

Hedges and Mearsheimer discuss the similarities between the war on Iran and the Vietnam War. Leadership in the United States knew early on that they could not win in Vietnam, but they continued escalating anyway. It is likely that the Trump administration knows that they have failed in Iran, but they refuse to give in even though they lack an exit strategy. Mearsheimer frames the June 17th MOU as the first concession by the US and says, “The idea that we have a newfound advantage over the Iranians now that we didn’t have when we signed the June 17th MOU agreement makes no sense at all.”

Hedges summarizes the potential paths available to the United States: “One, if the United States does continue to attack infrastructure, we are headed for a humanitarian disaster in the Gulf. If it doesn’t, then it leaves open the possibility of some kind of a negotiated settlement that is even more advantageous to Iran than the memorandum of understanding.” A glimmer of hope, Mearsheimer offers, is that President Trump halted further attacks on Iranian infrastructure this week, but what happens next is uncertain.

July 27, 2026 Posted by | Iran, USA, weapons and war | Leave a comment

US Troops Always Die For The US Alone

 July 22, 2026, Nate Bear, https://www.donotpanic.news/p/us-troops-always-die-for-the-us-alone

In the wake of the death of three American troops on a base in Jordan following a retaliatory attack by Iran, I’ve seen a lot of commentary online stating that they “died for Israel.”

This idea that Americans are dying for Israel has become an oft-repeated narrative since the US and Israel began their illegal war of aggression on Iran.

I understand the impulse, attraction and utility of this argument.

Yes, Zionists and their apartheid death state have a huge amount of slaughter, blood and destruction on their hands.

And yes, the entity and its supporters have established a symbiotic relationship with US governance which has allowed them to advance the genocide of the Palestinian people and their project of regional domination.

And I think it’s likely that convincing Americans that Americans are dying for another country helps undermine support for Israel and brings us closer to the day that the relationship is severed for good.

But the apartheid entity and its supporters are merely the parasite feeding from the lifeblood of the host. The host is providing the weapons and money as well as the global political cover for the grossly engorged entity to act with impunity.

And it is doing it wilfully.

The most revealing comment ever made about Israel didn’t come from Donald Trump, it came from Joe Biden, who as far back as 1986 said, loudly and proudly from the floor of the Senate, that “if Israel did not exist the United States would have to invent an Israel to protect our interests in the region.”

This should tell you absolutely everything you need to know.

The Middle East and West Asia is a vital zone of influence for empire, and Israel is just one of the on-shore aircraft carriers that enables imperial power projection thousands of miles from its shores.

The US soldiers died in Jordan, just one of the nodes in a broad network of bases spanning Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, Iraq, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, some of which have been in existence since the 1940s. While Israel is particularly useful to the imperium because it shares the expansionist, colonial instincts of its host, all these countries have friendly relations with the entity, the Gulf Arabs having long ago decided to choose Zionism and the siren call of empire over regional solidarity and Palestine. These bases don’t exist for Israel or the protection of Israel, they exist, exactly as Joe Biden said, to advance American interests.

Arguing that Americans are dying for Israel feels to me like a way to offload responsibility for a globe spanning empire, to indulge a fantasy that a benign America exists, and to deny the historical reality of American barbarism. It feels, ultimately, like a way for Americans to absolve themselves of their imperial sins.

Israel is a vital component of empire, but its crimes flow from the impunity and barbarity of US empire, not the other way around.

And for sure, the dismantling of a proxy regime like Israel is a necessary step on the road to a more just world, but that’s exactly what Israel is. A proxy. The tip of a spear. And an important one at that, but it isn’t the throwing arm. From Ukraine to Taiwan to its mercenaries and local insurgent groups across the globe, empire has plenty of other spear tips.

Did the apartheid state make the US invade Vietnam, commit genocide in Korea, bomb Panama, destroy clinics in Sudan or murder Venezuelans in Caracas just seven months ago? Did the Jewish ethno-state make it so that rape followed by the murder of Vietnamese women was so common that US soldiers had a special term for it: double veteran?

I don’t think so.

If Israel ceased to exist, the US regime wouldn’t pack away its toys, dissolve its one trillion dollar military death machine and go home. It would find or create another Israel.

The US resumed bombing Iran all on its own, after all.

The tragedy isn’t that American empire gets impressionable young men and women to die for Israel, the tragedy is that it gets them to die for it. For empire.

I don’t mean a tragedy we should be particularly sad about. I mean a tragedy in the original meaning of the world.

A Latina (as one of the dead soldiers, Isabella Gonzalez, was) dying for an empire of white nationalist supremacy currently trying to deport her neighbours, an empire which will never mourn her, is a genuinely classical level of tragedy, one the Greeks would be proud of.

Framing the deaths of soldiers in the Middle East as deaths for Israel makes it sound as if there would be some other just cause for which US troops could die.

There isn’t. All American troops die for empire.

The goal shouldn’t be to get Americans to stop dying for Israel.

The goal should be to get Americans to stop dying for the United States of America.

July 27, 2026 Posted by | Iran, USA, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Iran accuses US of violating international law after strike on nuclear plant

Energy watchdog says Darkhovin nuclear plant symbolises Iranian nation’s dignity and self-reliance

MEE staff, Middle East Eye, 19 July 2026 

Iran’s nuclear energy watchdog condemned the United States for bombing the construction site of the Darkhovin Nuclear Power Plant.

In a statement, the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran (AEOI) said the US had targeted a symbol of the Iranian nation’s dignity and its efforts to achieve self-reliance.

“The terrorist and criminal US regime, whose nature is nothing but bullying and lawlessness, carried out an aggressive and barbaric act in violation of international law,” the organisation said in a statement.

The AEOI did not disclose the extent of the damage but described the attack as a violation of international law.

The power plant is located in Khuzestan province in southwestern Iran. Construction of the current reactor began in 2022 at a site on the Karun River, about 70km south of Ahvaz and roughly 100km north of the Persian Gulf.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said it was looking into reports of the overnight attack. 

“The facility is in the very early stages of construction and contained no nuclear material when last visited by the IAEA,” the UN agency said, adding that the attack is not believed to pose any radiological risk. 

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi reiterated a call for “military restraint in the vicinity of all nuclear-related sites”.

Earlier on Saturday, Iranian officials said Iran had withdrawn from a memorandum of understanding with the Trump administration after the US resumed its bombardment of the country.

Iran and the US have intensified their attacks since an interim ceasefire deal signed a month ago fell apart last week, raising the possibility of a return to all-out war.

US Central Command (Centcom) said the latest air strikes began at 6pm ET (10pm GMT) on Saturday at the direction of President Donald Trump……………………………………….https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iran-accuses-us-violating-international-law-after-strike-nuclear-plant

July 25, 2026 Posted by | Iran, Legal, USA | Leave a comment

American forces struck a nuclear power plant under construction in southern Iran,

President Trump said American forces ‘hit Iran hard’ in honour of the US service members killed in Jordan on Friday

The state atomic energy
agency called the attack a “clear violation of international law”. The Atomic
Energy Organisation said that several projectiles hit the Darkhovin nuclear
power plant in Khuzestan province, but did not give details about possible
damage from the attack.

The United Nations’ International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA) called for restraint, adding that it was looking into the
reports. It also highlighted that the plant was in the “very early stages
of construction” and “contained no nuclear material when last visited
by the IAEA”.

 Times 20th July 2026,
https://www.thetimes.com/world/europe/article/iran-claims-us-strikes-hit-nuclear-power-plant-0kb7cpghx

July 24, 2026 Posted by | Iran, USA, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Satellite images show damage inside Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant

Satellite images [on original] reveal strikes between July 7 and 12 on Iran’s largest nuclear power plant

By Al Jazeera Staff, 17 Jul 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/17/satellite-images-show-damage-inside-irans-bushehr-nuclear-power-plant

Satellite imagery reveals new damage inside Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant complex following the latest wave of US strikes during renewed military escalation between Washington and Tehran.

A comparison of European Sentinel-2 satellite images captured on July 7 and July 12 shows newly formed impact scars inside the Bushehr complex, along with another apparent strike site within nearby support facilities.

The open-source unit of Al Jazeera Network compiled satellite imagery, field footage and official data from the US Central Command (CENTCOM) to map the locations of US strikes across Iran between July 7 and July 15.

Ehsan Jahanian, deputy governor of Bushehr province, had said on July 9 that several locations across the province had been struck, including areas surrounding the Bushehr nuclear power plant, a military site in Choghadak and a fishing port in the south of the province, according to Iran’s state news agency IRNA.

Jahanian later denied reports that the nuclear power plant itself had been hit, saying the reactor remained unaffected and continued operating normally.

The strikes came during a broader US military campaign against Iran. US Central Command (CENTCOM) said it struck about 90 military targets on July 7-8, including air defence systems, missile and drone storage sites, naval assets and military infrastructure along Iran’s southern coast.

The US did not identify Bushehr or any nuclear facility among the announced targets.

Iran’s only operating nuclear power plant

Bushehr is Iran’s only operating nuclear power plant. Located about 17km (11 miles) south of the city of Bushehr, the 2.5-square-kilometre (one-square-mile) complex includes reactor buildings, cooling-water channels connected to the ocean, assembly halls and a harbour used to receive equipment and materials for construction and reactor operations.

The site contains two reactor buildings, one operational and another that has remained unfinished for years.

According to the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Power Reactor Information System (PRIS), Bushehr-1 has a net electrical capacity of about 915 megawatts.

It was first connected to Iran’s electricity grid in September 2011 before entering commercial operation in September 2013.

Unlike uranium enrichment facilities such as Natanz or Fordow, the operating Bushehr reactor contains nuclear fuel and radioactive materials associated with power generation, making any damage to its cooling, power supply or containment systems significantly more sensitive.

Previous incidents

The July strike was not the first reported projectile incident near the Bushehr plant in 2026.

The IAEA event reports submitted by Iran’s nuclear regulator recorded multiple incidents, including projectiles striking inside the plant’s premises on March 17, March 24 and March 27, as well as another impact near the fence surrounding the reactor’s first unit on April 4. In each case, Iranian authorities reported that the reactor continued operating normally and that no damage to the reactor itself had been recorded.

The IAEA has repeatedly stressed that nuclear facilities should never become targets of armed attacks because of the potential consequences for people, the environment and regional nuclear safety.

July 22, 2026 Posted by | incidents, Iran | Leave a comment

Iran Accuses Kushner, Witkoff of Pursuing Profits Over Peace in Diplomatic Talks

Drop Site reported that Iran warned Vice President JD Vance that “the pair were more interested in exploiting insider knowledge of the negotiations to profit in financial markets than they were in reaching a deal.”

Jake Johnson, Common Dreams, Jul 16, 2026

Iranian officials reportedly warned US Vice President JD Vance late last month that two officials leading the Trump administration’s diplomatic efforts in the Middle East—special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner—were trying to profit from their proximity to critical negotiations rather than working to secure a lasting peace agreement.

According to Drop Site, which cited an unnamed Iranian official, “Iran conveyed to Vance that the pair were more interested in exploiting insider knowledge of the negotiations to profit in financial markets than they were in reaching a deal.” The Iranian side also “expressed concern about repeated leaks from Kushner to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.”

Iranian officials reportedly warned US Vice President JD Vance late last month that two officials leading the Trump administration’s diplomatic efforts in the Middle East—special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner—were trying to profit from their proximity to critical negotiations rather than working to secure a lasting peace agreement.

According to Drop Site, which cited an unnamed Iranian official, “Iran conveyed to Vance that the pair were more interested in exploiting insider knowledge of the negotiations to profit in financial markets than they were in reaching a deal.” The Iranian side also “expressed concern about repeated leaks from Kushner to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.”

Iranians estimated that people with inside information have raked in $9 billion in profits stemming from financial market moves related to the US-Israeli war on Iran, which sparked significant volatility in energy and equity prices.

On several occasions during the war, massive trading volumes have closely preceded major conflict-related announcements by US President Donald Trump. (Kushner is Trump’s son-in-law, and Witkoff is a close personal friend of the president.)

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of the Iranian Parliament and the country’s top negotiator, accused the Trump administration in March of peddling “fake news” to “manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped.”……………………………………………..

“The public has no reason to trust Jared Kushner’s integrity as a government official to put their interests above his financial benefit,” Donald Sherman, president of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, said after Trump formally named Kushner a special peace envoy in February.

Less than a month later, The New York Times reported that Kushner was trying to raise at least $5 billion in funding for his private equity firm, Affinity Partners, from Middle East governments. Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund is the largest investor in Affinity.

Witkoff, a real estate investor, has also faced scrutiny for potentially massive conflicts of interest.

Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Ariz.) noted during a House hearing last month that Witkoff “co-founded the cryptocurrency venture firm World Liberty Financial, alongside President Trump and President Trump’s children.”……………………………………. https://www.commondreams.org/news/kushner-witkoff-profit-iran-war

July 20, 2026 Posted by | Iran, secrets,lies and civil liberties, USA | Leave a comment

Trump says US will ‘take out’ Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain nuclear facility

:by Ellen Mitchell – 07/13/26, https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5966603-trump-threatens-pickaxe-mountain-iran/

President Trump on Monday said the U.S. could soon attack Pickaxe Mountain in Iran as American forces launched a new round of strikes against the country.

“Pickaxe is a possible target for a nice big fat shot right near the front door,” Trump said in an interview on “The Hugh ​Hewitt Show” Monday afternoon. “We’re going to take out Pickaxe Mountain. Tell the Iranians to be ​ready.”

Trump added that while the U.S. sees “no activity” at the heavily fortified site that hosts two deeply buried tunnel complexes, Washington will “probably give Pickaxe a shot relatively soon.”

Located near Iran’s damaged Natanz uranium enrichment facility in the Zagros Mountains, Pickaxe was not among the three nuclear sites targeted by the U.S. military in June 2025. But Trump told show host Hugh Hewitt that the U.S. has “a lot of eyes” on it.

Experts ⁠have assessed, however, that the depth of the facility means America’s most powerful bunker buster bombs are unlikely to penetrate it. The site is buried up to 2,000 feet below granite and is suspected to be housing uranium enrichment capabilities and stockpiles. 

Trump’s threat comes as American forces launched a new round of strikes against Iran at 4:45 p.m. EDT on Monday and hours after the president declared the U.S. Navy would reinstate the naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.

“These strikes will continue imposing a heavy cost on Iranian forces and degrade their ability to attack innocent civilians and commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz,” U.S. Central Command said in a statement.

The strikes mark the third consecutive day of U.S. attacks against Iran, with forces last week conducting four separate rounds of strikes against Tehran in what U.S. officials characterized as retaliation for Iran’s targeting of commercial vessels attempting to transit the vital shipping lane.

“We’re ​going to ⁠hit them very hard tonight, and we’re going to hit them hard tomorrow. And there’s not a damn thing ⁠they ​can do about it,” Trump told Hewitt.

July 16, 2026 Posted by | Iran, USA, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Trump Says Iran Deal Is “Over,” Signals More US Strikes Are Likely Coming

 July 9, 2026,  By Chris Walker, https://scheerpost.com/2026/07/09/trump-says-iran-deal-is-over-signals-more-us-strikes-are-likely-coming/

“Negotiators keep talking if they want, but I don’t see it,” Trump said on the status of future discussions.

In remarks at the NATO summit in Turkey on Wednesday, President Donald Trump claimed that the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the U.S. and Iran, negotiated last month, was no longer in effect, citing the resumption of military attacks between the two countries.

Trump’s comments come as the U.S. and Iran have exchanged fire over the past several days, with U.S. Central Command announcing on Tuesday night that they had completed strikes on around 80 targets.

The president was visibly upset when responding to questions from reporters about the war.

“I think it’s over. I don’t want to deal with them anymore,” Trump said. 

The U.S. president engaged in name-calling against Iran’s leaders, calling them “sick people” and “scum” — a noted departure from his positive descriptions of them when negotiations were going better. 

The MOU was not a final peace deal, but rather an agreement between the U.S. and Iran that aimed to end hostilities while a larger agreement was being brokered. Trump derided Iran for denying negotiated deals he claimed were being made during those discussions.

“We make a deal. They [Iran] go outside, talk to the press, they say ‘we never even talked about it,’” Trump complained.

Over the past month, Trump has made several baseless claims about the dealmaking process without confirmation from Iran, including that Iran had agreed to give up control of the Strait of Hormuz and that the country would agree to destroy its enriched nuclear materials. 

Asked whether he would engage in future negotiations with Iran, Trump demurred. “I don’t care,” he said, adding that he’d let “negotiators keep talking if they want, but I don’t see it.”

He also indicated that the U.S. would conduct more military attacks later on. “We hit them very hard last night. Probably hit them hard again tonight,” Trump said. 

On Tuesday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that the U.S.’s continued threats and attacks against Iran, which violate parts of the MOU, would impede “negotiations on a final deal.”

CENTCOM said it hit 80 targets on Tuesday, with one U.S. official calling the strikes bigger than previous retaliatory ones. While the U.S. insisted its targets are military posts, the attacks are happening near larger cities and close to civilian infrastructure.

Iran media reported explosions near military targets in Bushehr early on Wednesday morning, a port city near the northern edge of the Persian Gulf that has a population close to 250,000 people. The city is home to the only civilian nuclear power plant in the country. 

The U.S. also appeared to bomb the city of Bandar Abbas, near the Strait of Hormuz, which has a population of over 526,000 people. Early morning footage showed fires from explosions and large smoke plumes over the city. 

And Iranian media said several explosions were seen in Sirik, a port city in the southern part of the country, with attacks reportedly hitting commercial and fishing piers. Several people also suffered injuries from shrapnel due to the attacks. 

According to figures compiled by Al Jazeera, around 3,468 Iranians have been killed in the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran since February 28. More than 26,500 Iranians have been injured due to the war. The true number of casualties is likely higher, as the figures were last updated in mid-June.

July 14, 2026 Posted by | Iran, politics international, USA | Leave a comment

Deferring a Crisis: The Iran-US Ceasefire Cracks

9 July 2026 Dr Binoy Kampmark, https://theaimn.net/deferring-a-crisis-the-iran-us-ceasefire-cracks/

Ceasefires in the Middle East seem especially susceptible to revision, alteration and contradiction. Missiles still get fired; airstrikes initiated. Destruction to infrastructure, and death, follows. Yet despite the misunderstandings, the sniping and the harrying, these odd understandings are often described by those funny political coves as “holding”. In the case of the ceasefire between Tehran and Washington, articulated with some fanfare with a Memorandum of Understanding, only the most piously delusional would claim it was holding in any way.

The June 18 MoU stipulates from the outset that the US, Iran and their allies “declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, and undertaken from now on not to initiate any war or any military of operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon.” The parties further understood that Iran would commit to a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping; the US would grant modest sanctions relief on Iranian crude, refined products and petrochemical products as well as lift its own naval blockade. Further talks would take place to reach a final agreement in 60 days.

The Lebanon side of the bargain has, from the outset, been a wretched shambles, with Israel continuing its operations with various shades of intensity against Hezbollah even as it seeks to occupy the south of the country. The Lebanese government has been increasingly confined to the status of humiliated water carrier. As for Tehran and Washington, the Strait of Hormuz has again become an area of rattling contentiousness.Despite being a mere 33 kilometres at its at its narrowest point, this humble body of water was, prior to the February 28 US-Israeli assault on Iran, responsible for the transiting of 20 to 21 million barrels of oil a day, making up somewhere between 20% to 21% of the total global consumption of petroleum liquids. Liquified natural gas to the proportion of 22% of global trade also took place through the strait.

Iran has continued to target vessels in the strait’s southern corridor, notably those transiting near the Omani coastline. Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has declared in rather purplish terms that the Strait was a “divine gift from God granted us during this war and our greatest instrument of power.” Iran maintained sovereignty over Hormuz, though it would coordinate management matters with Oman and the Gulf states. Indeed, pursuant to Clause Five of the MoU, Iran and Oman had “already reached agreement on all legal and service-related matters.” It was only at the insistence of the Gulf states that transit fees would not be charged for 60 days.

On July 7, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations centre noted three attacks on commercial shipping in the strait. While Tehran is suspected of being behind these, given that the tankers were not seemingly travelling through Iran’s approved transit route, it has so far not claimed responsibility for the actions.

These incidents took place even as representatives gathered in the disagreeable atmosphere of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit just concluded in Ankara. US Central Command (CENTCOM) was swift in initiating strikes conducted “in response to Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels” transiting through the Strait. On July 8, another wave of attacks was announced by CENTCOM “to further degrade” Tehran’s “ability to threaten the freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The United States is holding Iran accountable for recent unjustified aggression against commercial shipping and civilian crews navigating a vital international waterway.” Sanctions have also been reimposed on Iranian oil sales.

The response from Iran was not long in coming, keeping to the script written at the start of the war. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (RGC) promptly announced drone and missile strikes against the US Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain and Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait. Again, the Gulf states must be rueing their misplaced reliance on Washington’s security guarantee.

The NATO summit provided the appropriate backdrop of perverse dysfunction for US President Donald Trump, who managed to berate bruised allies even as various arms deals were made. In responding to a question about whether the ceasefire with Iran had ended, he claimed, as far as he was concerned, “it’s over.” He had no further appetite to “deal with them anymore, they’re scum.” They were “sick people, they’re led by sick people, and they’re vicious, violent people. And if they had a nuclear weapon, they’d use it.”

Groping for some rationalisation of these latest US attacks – some 80 sites struck across southern Iran – military pundits sense a shift towards crippling Tehran’s maritime denial capability, notably the country’s menacing use of fast attack craft, small submarines and armed speedboats. (CENTCOM insists that 60 small boats had been targeted.) But the occluding language of Washington’s military-industrial complex, one so inured to the propaganda of muscular might over subtle sense (when in doubt, resort to the favoured word “degrade”), remains blinded to the continued resilience of Iran’s war machine.

Even Trump, for all his raging petulance, can see that the diplomatic trail has not gone entirely cold, if only because he has no other sensible option. At the summit, he made grumbling mention of his chief negotiators, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. “I don’t care, they can talk. But I think they’re wasting their time.” The Iranians were “a bunch of lying guys.” Given that negotiations, especially covering Iran’s nuclear program, have been placed in cold storage for the duration of the funeral obsequies for the late supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, those lying guys will be waiting full of anticipation.

July 13, 2026 Posted by | Iran, politics international, USA | Leave a comment

U.S. launches ‘powerful strikes’ on Iran after tanker attacks in Strait of Hormuz

[your]NEWS, Tue, 07 Jul 2026, https://www.sott.net/article/507318-US-launches-powerful-strikes-on-Iran-after-tanker-attacks-in-Strait-of-Hormuz

U.S. Central Command said American forces began “powerful strikes” against Iran after three commercial vessels were attacked while transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. forces began launching strikes against Iran on Tuesday after Tehran attacked commercial ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz, according to U.S. Central Command.

CENTCOM announced the military action in a post on X, saying the strikes were aimed at imposing costs on Iran for targeting civilian-crewed commercial vessels in an international waterway.

“U.S. Central Command forces have begun launching a series of powerful strikes against Iran to impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping crewed by innocent civilians in an international waterway,” the command wrote. “The U.S. strikes are in response to Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels that were transiting the Strait of Hormuz.”

CENTCOM said Iran’s actions violated the ceasefire and created a dangerous escalation in one of the world’s most important shipping corridors.

“Iran’s demonstrated aggression was unwarranted, dangerous, and a clear violation of the ceasefire.”

Reuters reported that the strikes came after the vessel attacks, citing Central Command’s statement that the U.S. response was tied to Iranian targeting of commercial shipping in the strategic waterway.

Iran responded by saying it would take all necessary measures to protect its security and interests. The Iranian Foreign Ministry blamed the United States for any violations of the truce agreement and pointed to Washington’s revival of oil sanctions Tuesday as a breach of the agreement.

The confrontation came after maritime security warnings intensified around the Strait of Hormuz. CNBC reported Tuesday that the threat level near the waterway had been raised to “severe” after Iran attacked tankers traveling on a route protected by the U.S. Navy.

The Strait of Hormuz sits between Iran and Oman and serves as a critical passage for global energy shipments. A significant share of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas moves through the narrow waterway, making disruptions there a major concern for energy markets and international shipping.

The military strikes also came as the Trump administration continued its broader pressure campaign against Tehran. That effort includes restrictions on Iran’s ability to generate revenue from oil exports.

The administration recently moved to end a waiver that had allowed certain countries to continue purchasing Iranian oil despite U.S. sanctions. The waiver had permitted limited transactions involving Iranian crude exports, and ending those exemptions was intended to further restrict Tehran’s access to oil income.

The Trump administration has argued that cutting off Iranian oil revenue is a key part of pressuring Tehran over its nuclear program and regional activities.

Iran has repeatedly warned that efforts to limit its energy exports could lead to retaliation, including actions affecting commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.

The latest tanker attacks and U.S. strikes have increased concerns that shipping through Hormuz could face further disruption. Any prolonged threat to traffic through the waterway could affect oil prices and raise costs for consumers.

Tuesday’s strikes mark another escalation between Washington and Tehran as tensions continue over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, regional conduct and oil revenue.

July 13, 2026 Posted by | Iran, USA, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Iran trumps US on Hormuz

US President Donald Trump’s innate inability to empathise with others and lack of intelligence to foresee consequences are likely to hand Iran a long-term financial advantage and incidentally, but more importantly, threaten the treaty that has been the most productive of peace and prosperity in recent history – the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

Crispin Hull,June 30, 2026, https://www.crispinhull.com.au/2026/06/30/iran-trumps-us-on-hormuz/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_source_platform=mailpoet&utm_campaign=crispin-hull-column


The tit-for-tat breaches of the US-Iran 60-day ceasefire in the past few days certainly point that way. Let me explain.

Of 193 members of the UN, 44 are landlocked. The other 149 have coastlines linking each of their coastlines to the other 148 countries’ coastlines such that they can as a practical matter drive to those other nations by boat or ship with no natural barrier or no requirement to use easily blocked roads or railways.

The UN convention took eight years to negotiate in the 1970s. It was a triumph of diplomacy and law over the assertion of power and force. It resulted in one of the greatest trade-offs in history between powerful nations, on one hand, and less powerful nations, on the other. 

In short, before the convention, powerful trading nations saw their economic interests in both the unfettered exploitation of the resources of the oceans and in having freedom of navigation across the oceans to help free trade, but ultimately they were willing to forgo the former in order to secure the latter. 


The trade-off was enormous. Rich, powerful nations thought that freedom of navigation across the world’s oceans was so important for trade and hence prosperity that they were willing to grant poor and less powerful nations significant exclusive rights to their adjacent oceans in return for that freedom.

The question posed by the negotiators was how to achieve peace and greater prosperity. The answer was negotiation and compromise.

Each nation, even the militarily and economically weak, got the exclusive rights to all the ocean’s resources, particularly fishing and mining, up to 200 nautical miles from their shore and the total sovereign rights of territorial waters up to 12 nautical miles from their shore. 

n return vessels from any nation, especially militarily strong and rich trading nations could sail anywhere on the oceans, but if they came within 12 nautical miles of another nation’s shores they had to inform that nation of their passage, and make their passage expeditious – no more lingering with menace close to other nations’ shores (gunboat diplomacy).

The arrangement facilitated trade and made the passage of warships less threatening. Good all round. 

Before that, the three-nautical-mile limit was the general unwritten rule. Within that limit, nation states could do whatever they liked with their ocean and beyond that foreign vessels could do whatever they liked – from fishing to playing wargames.

Three nautical miles was of practical importance. In the nineteenth century that was the limit of a cannon shot. It meant that a ship outside that limit could not hit land and that land-based artillery could not hit a ship.

But It also meant that the nations either side of major choke points in world navigational routes – especially Gibraltar, Malacca and Hormuz – which did not have at least a little strip of international waters in the middle had to permit free passage of all vessels. 

The latest US-Iran talks and spats over Hormuz, now puts this arrangement in jeopardy. At its narrowest Hormuz is less that 24 nautical miles wide. It means that the territorial waters of Iran to the north and Oman to the south overlap in the middle. It means any ship travelling through has to identify itself to either Iran or Oman and travel expeditiously, or it could be prevented from passage.

Under the ceasefire agreement Iran agreed to allow free passage, but the agreement was vaguely worded. Vessels seeking passage opted to travel as close to the Omani side as possible. Iran read that as a breach of the ceasefire and fired on those vessels. The US retaliated by hitting Iranian targets on the coastline.

It is clear that Iran wants to come to some arrangement with Oman to charge vessels fees in the future in return for passage rather than allowing Oman to let its side of the Strait be used for free safe passage. Whether those fees are characterised as fees for services or a toll, they will still be contrary to the convention. And once one nation starts, others will surely follow.

With drones and rockets we now have the reverse of the 19th century position. Instead of a nation worrying about ship-based weapons firing on its land, ships now have to worry about land-based weapons firing upon ships. 

It puts Iran in the box seat. With that threat in place Iran can insist on payment of a fee before guaranteeing safe passage. Iran can just use the insurance system to enforce payment. Without insurance no ship-owner will transit, and without guarantee of safe passage no insurer will grant insurance to a vessel.

All very foreseeable. But it would require thinking in a way that strategists usually think – asking the question: what would I do if I were in the enemy’s position? How would I react if I were the enemy? But Trump is incapable of viewing anything from any perspective but his own.

Arguably, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea has done more in the past 40 years to prevent hostilities and to create the certainty for shipping that generates trade and prosperity than all the force and threat of force that any single nation can muster.

But Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have always preferred force to negotiation.

From the start, they asked the wrong question and got the wrong answer. Netanyahu, facing an election this October, asked how could he stay in power after the Hamas-inspired attack on Israel in October 2023 so he does not have to face questions about how he allowed such a lapse of security? Trump asked, having torn up the well-negotiated Obama deal with Iran to prevent its acquisition of nuclear weapons, how can he ensure Iran does not get those weapons.

The wrong answer they got was: war. In Netanyahu’s case it was genocidal war. If only they chose negotiation and the rule of law rather than force, the world would not be facing an even stronger Iran and an indefinite economic threat to the world that its stranglehold over Hormuz now gives it.

If the world had insisted that Israel follow the 1947 UN resolution that called for the termination of the British Mandate and the partition of historic Palestine into independent, democratic Arab and Jewish states with guaranteed rights for all citizens, there would now be peace in the Middle East.

Trump has always preferred force and the threat of force over the rule of law – domestically and internationally. What he does at home is for the Americans to worry about. After all, they voted him into office. But there is little or no redress for those affected by what he does in the world – usually foolishly and impetuously.

That is why Australia should use whatever tools it has to steer international affairs towards the rule of law and negotiation and away from the use of force.

July 3, 2026 Posted by | Iran, politics international, USA | Leave a comment

Iran deal grants access to nuclear inspectors, IAEA chief says

By Reuters, June 26, 2026, Reporting by Tim Kelly; Editing by Thomas Derpinghaus and David Dolan,
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-deal-grants-access-nuclear-inspectors-iaea-chief-says-2026-06-26/

TOKYO, June 26 (Reuters) – The interim U.S.-Iran peace accord gives U.N. nuclear inspectors access to Iran, the watchdog’s top official said ​on Friday, after Tehran indicated key sites would remain off-limits ‌until a final deal with Washington was reached and sanctions lifted.

The U.S. and Iran last week signed a memorandum of understanding paving the ​way for 60 days of talks to resolve thornier ​issues, including those related to Iran’s nuclear programme. Iran’s ⁠deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi said on Wednesday there were ​no plans to grant access to inspectors.

But International Atomic Energy Agency ​boss Rafael Grossi said on Friday that inspections had to happen.

“There is an agreement and to comply with that agreement, the IAEA will have to ​have access and inspect,” he told a press conference in Japan. “We ​hope to be there soon.”

U.N. inspectors have already held an initial exchange with ‌Iranian ⁠officials to discuss technical issues, Grossi said. The first goal of any visit to Iran would be to check whether IAEA seals on previously inspected material remained intact and whether any ​material was missing, ​he said.

“Intentions are ⁠not enough. We have to have a very strong verification system in place,” he said.

Iran ​has not informed the watchdog how much of ​its enriched ⁠uranium survived U.S. and Israeli attacks or where it is.

The IAEA estimates Iran had 440.9 kg of uranium enriched to up ⁠to ​60% before the conflict began. If ​enriched further, that would be enough for 10 nuclear weapons, according to an IAEA ​yardstick.

June 30, 2026 Posted by | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

The IAEA Faces a New Nuclear Puzzle Inside Iran

By RFE/RL staff – Jun 26, 2026, https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-IAEA-Faces-a-New-Nuclear-Puzzle-Inside-Iran.html

  • Experts say effective IAEA inspections require broad access to verify Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles, enrichment activities, and nuclear infrastructure.
  • A key challenge will be locating Iran’s roughly 450 kilograms of highly enriched uranium and ensuring it is properly downblended and cannot be re-enriched.
  • Former officials argue that restoring the IAEA’s “continuity of knowledge” after recent military strikes and restricted access will be one of the agency’s toughest tasks.

Amid an ongoing row between Washington and Tehran over whether international monitors can verify Iranian compliance with its nuclear nonproliferation commitments, former officials have told RFE/RL that the scale, scope, and degree of access are crucial to the success of inspections.

Details on those have yet to be determined, though Raffael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said the UN body “will be working on the modalities — dates, procedures, places — very soon.”

That doesn’t mean, according to experts, that the organization hasn’t already drawn up a wish list for any eventual inspections

They almost certainly have a plan for when they go back in, what the priorities are, where they would want to go first, second, third,” Laura Rockwood, a former IAEA negotiator on Iran, told RFE/RL.

“The key thing is to find out where in particular the enriched uranium is…. I’d be willing to bet you that they have in place a plan for the day they need to go back in,” added Rockwood, who took part in high-level negotiations on Iran during a 28-year career at the IAEA before retiring in 2013.

Downblending Uranium

While US President Donald Trump has said that Iran has agreed to the highest level of nuclear inspections and Iran says it has no plans to allow the inspections, point No. 8 of the US-Iranian memorandum of understanding (MOU) states the two sides have agreed on a “minimum methodology” that Iran’s stocks of highly enriched uranium (HEU) will be “downblended on site under the supervision of the IAEA.”

But the details of this could also prove contentious.

“If IAEA inspectors were able to measure and characterize both the high and low enriched material before the downblending, then simple arithmetic gives a good sense of what the product is. They’d then want to measure to confirm and seal that product for future accountability,” Matthew Sharp, who served as director for Iran nuclear issues on the US National Security Council (NSC) from 2021-2022, told RFE/RL.

“If, on the other hand, Iran does the downblending itself and then provides the product to inspectors, it would be much more difficult to know how much HEU Iran started with, which could create uncertainties as to whether all of the 60 percent or other enriched material had been downblended or if some remained out of our awareness,” said Sharp, now a senior nuclear fellow at the MIT Center for International Studies.

Right now, the location of Iran’s roughly 450 kilograms of HEU is unclear. After the US and Israeli air strikes, it could be buried under rubble in a bunker beneath a mountain, or the Iranian authorities may have moved some or all of it elsewhere to hide it.

But if it can be successfully located and downblended, the next step is stopping Iran from re-enriching it again at a later date.

Monitoring Enrichment

The MOU says the two parties agreed “to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear needs, based on a satisfactory framework being agreed upon in the final deal.”

Experts told RFE/RL that verifying this must include a role for the IAEA.

“Any suspension on uranium enrichment is relatively meaningless if it cannot be verified and if the IAEA does not have the access to ensure that there are no covert nuclear activities related to enrichment going on elsewhere in the country,” said Kelsey Davenport, director of nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association.

“The level of access, the provision of information to the International Atomic Energy Agency, how quickly Iran has to comply with IAEA requests for access — all of that is going to be crucial,” she told RFE/RL.

“Once the enrichment level is low, below 5 percent, it’s much safer to ship out that material. It could be stored under an international fuel bank in Kazakhstan,” Davenport added.

The idea of shipping the downblended uranium out of Iran is something US officials appear keen on. At a recent background call with reporters, one official said dilution within Iran was “the floor” but that “we will push for more than that.”

A senior US official said Washington would rely heavily on the UN nuclear watchdog and US technical teams for verification. “We’re not in the trusting business,” the official said.

The IAEA has previously verified Iran’s compliance with its commitments to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which it ratified in 1970, and the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Lessons From The Past

Experts say many lessons have been learned from these experiences. They point to the importance of the IAEA’s Model Additional Protocol, which provides additional tools for verification.

Rockwood, now a senior fellow at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, was the principal author of the protocol.

Under the additional protocol, instead of just routinely being limited to nuclear material and nuclear facilities, we have access to information and locations concerning the entire nuclear fuel cycle, including the production of centrifuges,” she said. “So, if you know roughly how many centrifuges they are capable of making, you want to know where they are, and we can ask for that kind of access with an additional protocol.”

Iran signed the Additional Protocol in 2003 but has not sent an official letter to the IAEA that would bring it into force.

Iran provisionally implemented its provisions between 2003 and 2006 and for a period under the JCPOA. However, noted Rockwood, “there were lots of indications of noncompliance by Iran” during this time.

This, she said, could be expected to continue — with added complications.

June 29, 2026 Posted by | Iran, Uranium | Leave a comment

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