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Caitlin Johnstone – The Trumpanyahu Administration Is Preparing Another Iran Attack, And Other Notes

Caitlin Johnstone, 23 Oct 26, https://www.caitlinjohnst.one/p/the-trumpanyahu-administration-is-179?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=82124&post_id=221731326&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1ise1&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

Well, it looks like they’re going to attack Iran again. Might be after the US midterms. Might be sooner.

President Trump is telling the press that he is done negotiating with the Iranians and that something will be happening “fairly soon”, while America’s other president, Benjamin Netanyahu, proclaims that the time has come to topple Tehran once and for all.

Haaretz reports that Netanyahu is calling for “preemptive strikes” on Iran, which is empire-speak for “attack completely out of the blue without any provocation or justification whatsoever”.

The New York Times reports that the US and Israel are preparing for an attack after the midterms, with sources claiming that “targets would likely include Iran’s energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile and drone arsenal” inflicted with the goal of collapsing the Iranian economy.

All this could perhaps be dismissed as empty bluster, except that NBC News is reporting that US troops are being evacuated from their posts in the middle east — exactly what happened in the lead-up to the US-Israeli attack on Iran last February.

Iran is warning that it will hit new targets and expand its strikes geographically in the event of a US/Israeli attack, saying “cables, data centers, artificial intelligence facilities, and numerous other sites will be destroyed” in order to damage US economic interests.

So I guess this is happening. Another brazen assault in an evil war of aggression that makes life harder for people all around the world.

The US empire must end.

Another choice quote from the Bell review on “antisemitism” in British schools which I missed in my write-up yesterday:

“British attitudes relating to Jewish people and Israel show two broad trends. AntiJewish attitudes are typically less prevalent and have remained more stable, whereas anti-Israel sentiments are more prevalent and have been increasing.”

The report explicitly acknowledges that hatred toward Jews is not on the rise, and that only anti-Israel sentiments are increasing. And yet they still published a 107-page review claiming that “antisemitism” is a major problem in British schools.

This tells you everything you need to know about what the word “antisemitism” actually refers to in today’s world. It just means criticism of Israel.

Hat tip to Nate Bear on Twitter for highlighting this quote.

Double Down News has a great report out explaining that the “antisemitism” review was based on heavily manipulated data, ultimately citing the claims of just 29 individuals to justify its outlandish claim that anti-Jewish discrimination is running rampant throughout the British school system.

Anyone who talks about “left wing antisemitism” like it’s a real thing should be immediately and permanently labeled a bad faith actor and an ideological enemy without any further discussion.

❖

Zionism is not a religion, it’s a political ideology which indisputably gives rise to apartheid and ethnic cleansing. You can tell me that your personal religious beliefs compel you to be a Zionist, but then I’ll say your religious beliefs are bad and you should change them. Your religion does not magically exempt you from the basic requirements of human decency.

It should not be taboo to say this. If your religious tolerance prohibits you from telling someone they shouldn’t espouse a racist political ideology which inflicts endless war, genocide, ethnic cleansing, apartheid and abuse upon your fellow human beings, then you have too much religious tolerance.

October 25, 2026 Posted by | Iran, Israel, USA, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Iran fortifying nuclear sites; warns of land incursions into Gulf states if the US launches new strikes – report

i24NEWS, October 13, 2026, https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/middle-east/iran-eastern-states/artc-iran-fortifying-nuclear-sites-warns-of-land-incursions-into-gulf-states-if-the-us-launches-new-strikes-report

Iran is fortifying its defenses, rallying loyalists and threatening a wider, harsher response against the US and its Gulf allies as it prepares for potential American attacks after the midterms, The Wall Street Journal reported. Iranian officials warned publicly and privately that Tehran will respond with further escalation across the Middle East if the US launches new strikes.

People familiar with the warnings said some officials hinted that Iranian forces could conduct land incursions into neighboring countries. Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, said Sunday that Tehran could target the United Arab Emirates, as well as data centers and internet cables across the region.

Tehran also warned Arab officials it could strike Saudi oil facilities, some of the people said.

The US military is also gearing up. A third aircraft carrier strike group and another Marine expeditionary unit are heading to the Middle East.

President Donald Trump ruled out an attack before the Nov. 3 midterms last week, but has publicly mulled hitting the Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site, and US officials said the military is preparing a range of options for new strikes.

At home, Iran is preparing the public for renewed war. Satellite images analyzed by the Institute for Science and International Security showed Iran built makeshift dirt mounds last month around its Pickaxe Mountain and Natanz nuclear sites to impede any ground raid.

Brig. Gen. Gholamreza Jalali, who oversees contingency plans, said Iran’s airports, seaports and power plants “have prepared for wartime conditions.” Billboards in Tehran also advertise civilian courses in firing shoulder-launched anti-aircraft missiles.

Separately, IAEA chief Rafael Mariano Grossi had previously told Bloomberg Television that “there are some indications that there is movement around this construction site,” referring to Pickaxe Mountain, but added: “We don’t have any concrete information as to activities that may be taking place there,” Ynet reported, citing Bloomberg.

October 18, 2026 Posted by | Iran, weapons and war | Leave a comment

War puts Iran’s nuclear ambiguity under scrutiny

A revisionist argument is emerging in Tehran over Iran’s nuclear strategy:
that its longstanding policy of nuclear ambiguity failed its most important
test when it did not deter the United States and Israel from attacking, and
should now be reconsidered. Nezamoddin Mousavi, a former conservative
lawmaker with longstanding ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
(IRGC), gave unusually explicit expression to that argument this week,
declaring that “nuclear ambiguity did not prevent war” and raising the
prospect of revisiting Iran’s nuclear doctrine and even its membership in
the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

Iran International 10th Oct 2026,
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610106118

October 15, 2026 Posted by | Iran, politics | Leave a comment

Walt Zlotow – Fanatical US Iran war supporters must stop fantasy Iran attacked US 47 years ago

Walt Zlotow  West Suburban Peace Coalition  Glen Ellyn IL 8 Oct 26, https://theaimn.net/fanatical-us-iran-war-supporters-need-to-stop-fantasising/

During my 75 years following US justifications for waging senseless war, I’ve never heard anything as bizarre as that supporting the current senseless war on Iran.

Trump’s war defenders claim Iran has been waging war on America for 47 years beginning with the US embassy hostage takeover in November 1979. During the intervening 47 years, Iran has killed thousands of US miliary personnel in the Middle East. They condemn all preceding presidents beginning with Jimmy Carter for not defending against Iran’s dastardly war on America. They praise Trump for finally confronting Iran head on in a war of existential threat to our homeland.

This narrative is repeated endlessly on conservative media, even the floor of Congress. In arguing against a War Powers Resolution to end Trump’s deranged Iran war that may crash the world economy, Montana Sen. Tim Sheehy said, “We didn’t start this war, we did not. But we will finish it. Democrats were right to call the conflict a war of choice, but the choice was made by Iran’s regime decades ago — not by Trump. It’s a war of choice that was begun by a radical, lunatic band of terrorists that took over a beautiful nation 47 years ago. This regime that we are fighting does not care about our partisan politics, don’t care who you voted for, who you pray to, or where you live. They want to kill all of us. And they don’t just say it, they actually do it. And they’ve been doing it for 47 years.”

Somehow, Sen. Sheehy missed that it was President Trump repeatedly threatening to wipe out the entire Iranian civilization; indeed, even before the United Nations General Assenbly. It was Trump who sucker punched Iran with bombs while negotiating peace in June 2025, and again in all out war on February 28 this year. After twice being deceived with bombs, Iran fought back ferociously, essentially defeating the most murderous, duplicitous regime on earth.

In truth, it’s America that has been at war with Iran for decades and a lot longer that 47 years. One must go back 73 years to Operation Ajax, America’s first Iran regime change operation, which toppled the legitimate Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh in 1953 to retain British, US control of Iranian oil. Once deposed, the US installed Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the Shah of Iran, to serve US interests in perpetuity. For the Iranian people it meant the Shah’s brutal rule enabled by the US military and CIA which killed upwards of 10,000 anti Shah dissidents.

After twenty-six years the Iranian people forced the Shah to flee in February 1979, allowing the transition from monarchy to an Islamic Republic.

Had President Carter not allowed America’s three decade puppet ruler to seek refuge in the US, there would likely never been the November 4, 1979 takeover of the US embassy by 500 students resulting in taking 66 US hostages for 444 days.

Shortly thereafter the new Iranian government made 3 reasonable demands of the US, that if granted, would likely have promptly returned the hostages.

Most important was return of the Shah, a mass murderer, to face justice in Iran. Second, a US apology for the ’53 US coup that overturned Mosaddegh and installed the Shah’s brutal rule. Third, return of the $20 billion the Shah stole and the US seized after the revolution.

Besides quick return of the 66 hostages, there would have been no failed April 1980 rescue mission that killed 8 service members.

But the hard liners in the Carter administration led by National Security Adviser, Zbigniew Brzezinski would have none of that, setting off 47 years of endless US machinations in behest of every US administration and Israel to complete the second Iranian regime change in 73 years.

No, Iran has never attacked the US or been at war with the US…until President Trump bombed an Iranian school, killing over a hundred little girls on the first day of his deranged, criminal war to depose the Iranian regime at the behest of Israel.

Instead of diplomacy, common sense, peace, Trump gives us war, death, economic decline, possible global economic collapse. And he justifies this madness with the fantasy that the victim has been the aggressor for 47 years.

October 13, 2026 Posted by | Iran, USA, weapons and war | Leave a comment

How much longer can the world absorb the Iran shock?

 The war that was intended to deliver a swift overthrow of the Iranian
regime is now in its eighth month, with no end in sight. So, what might
happen next?

My preliminary conclusion is that one should never
underestimate human stupidity or human ingenuity. So far it is a rough draw
between the two. How long will this last?

That is the question. In a
devastating analysis, John Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago
describes the war on Iran as “The Mother of All Strategic Blunders”.
Among other things, he notes, the US went into the war on the false claim
that Iran was on the verge of acquiring a nuclear weapon; it thought air
power alone would produce regime change, which has never worked; it had no
contingency plan for dealing with Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz.


It has also failed to achieve any of its four principal objectives —
regime change, ending Iran’s nuclear enrichment capability, ending its
long-range missile capability and ending its support for Hamas, Hizbollah
and the Houthis.

The closure of the strait has done significant damage to
the international economy and may do much more; and the US alliance
structure (in the Gulf and elsewhere) has been damaged. All this, moreover,
is only about half of the full charge sheet.

But the economic damage has
been surprisingly modest. As Johannes Urpelainen of the Johns Hopkins
School of Advanced International Studies noted in August, “Many experts
initially thought that this supply disruption would send oil prices to USD
200 per barrel, causing massive inflation and a global recession. Instead,
oil prices peaked at USD 126 per barrel in April 2026.”

First, the energy
transition has reduced the global economy’s dependence on oil. Second,
supply chains have proven resilient and adaptive. Third, producers outside
the Middle East have acted fast to produce more oil and natural gas.
Finally, drawdowns of global oil inventories have filled the remaining gap.

 FT 7th Oct 2026, https://www.ft.com/content/37e12a42-d473-4b1b-8fc5-4ea5f06d3bfb

October 11, 2026 Posted by | Iran, politics international, USA | Leave a comment

Iran Launches Surprise Attacks On US Bases As Trump Covers Up Soldier Casualties

September 24, 2026, Robert Inlakesh MintPress News, https://scheerpost.com/2026/09/24/iran-launches-surprise-attacks-on-us-bases-as-trump-covers-up-soldier-casualties/

Iran’s IRGC has been striking various US targets and an average of two to three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz on a daily basis, as gas prices hit working class Americans where it hurts. On this episode of The Target stream, Mint Press News’ Robert Inlakesh explains how these blows have been compounded by revelations that the Pentagon is concealing its Iran War casualties.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) carried out another ballistic missile attack against what they would later state was a US military base in Jordan, in the latest edition of The Target we cover the story before it was officially announced and put it together with a broader series of strikes on American military targets that are no longer even being acknowledged by US Central Command.

Tehran’s preemptive operations are not receiving much attention in the corporate media, despite visual confirmation of them occurring, alongside on the ground reports and later confirmations from Iranian military officials. Combined with the fact that multiple vessels are being targeted in the Strait of Hormuz by the IRGC’s naval forces on a daily basis, this spells a new regional equation.

So long as the Iranian attacks are not on a larger scale as to demand a response, the US military is simply pretending as if they are not happening at all. The previously announced equation was that Iran’s civilian infrastructure would be targeted each and every time a tanker is struck in the Persian Gulf.

Compounding the US’s declining hegemony and military embarrassments have been reports that the Pentagon has deliberately hid the deaths of a number of American military personnel. According to a bombshell report from the Washington Post, five sources who are familiar with the US’s casualty figures claimed that they knew about four deaths that were not publicly registered by the Pentagon, an additional source said that number could be five.

Meanwhile, gas prices are burdening working class Americans who are growing increasingly frustrated with the Trump administration’s mismanagement of the economy. A Reuters/Ipsos Poll, published this Monday, found that only 17% of US citizens say that they are happy with the federal government’s management of the economy.

Although it has remained largely out of the mainstream spotlight, Saudi Arabia’s war on Yemen continues to backfire as it faces new rounds of ballistic missile and drone strikes against their oil infrastructure. The Yemeni Armed Forces continue to liberate territory from Saudi-proxy forces, as airstrikes based upon intelligence granted to Riyadh by officials in Tel Aviv have resulted in a growing number of civilian massacres.

Also on the stream, Robert Inlakesh takes an in depth look at the Lebanon front and what its weapons arsenal could mean during the upcoming regional escalation, analysing the Israeli predicament on southern Lebanese occupied lands. Hezbollah had proven it possessed a large range of weapons during its 2024 war with Israel. In 2026, the Party has chosen not to use its strategic arsenal so far, indicating that it is following a carefully calibrated escalation ladder.

September 29, 2026 Posted by | Iran, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Iran sends peace terms to US

Tehran is awaiting US President Donald Trump’s response to its conditions for restarting negotiations, security chief Mohsen Rezaei has said

19 Sep, 2026 , https://www.rt.com/news/645996-iran-sends-peace-terms-us/

Iran has conveyed its peace terms to the US through Qatari mediators, the country’s top security official, Mohsen Rezaei, has said, arguing that it is in America’s interests to accept them.

The 60-day period provided under the US-Iranian memorandum of understanding to negotiate a settlement expired last month without a deal, while disrupted maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues to drive up energy prices.

“Seven conditions set by Iran for the start of any negotiations have been conveyed to the US administration. Tehran’s message is clear and unambiguous: If Washington wants to escape the predicament it has created for itself and avoid becoming further entangled in it, it has no choice but to recognize Iran’s rights and accept its conditions,” Rezaei wrote on X on Saturday.

In an interview with Al Jazeera, Rezaei, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said the terms include “an end to the war on all fronts, the release of our frozen funds and an end to the naval blockade.”

Iranian officials previously said they are also seeking the withdrawal of US forces from the region and compensation for the US and Israeli strikes launched on February 28.

“Trump’s threats will not achieve any results. We are prepared for a decisive war,” Rezaei added.

US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that “hopefully we are toward the end of the war” and suggested that Iran wants to make a deal. The following day, however, he once again threatened to “annihilate” the Iranian leadership if the conflict does not end on his terms.

The US military revealed on Friday that the nearly seven-month conflict has cost $43.6 billion, with nearly two-thirds of the bill going toward replenishing depleted munitions.

According to Bloomberg, widely reported ammunition shortages could delay arms deliveries to US allies by several years. Trump and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth have denied that the conflict has left the US short of missiles and bombs.

September 25, 2026 Posted by | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

Calls to quit NPT grow in Iran as critics warn of strategic trap

Maryam Sinaiee, Iran International, https://www.iranintl.com/en/202609165573

alls for Iran to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty are gaining ground among hardliners after the IAEA referred the country to the UN Security Council and its nuclear chief was barred from attending the agency’s annual conference in Vienna.

The growing debate has exposed a divide within Iran’s political establishment between those who see NPT membership as offering little protection and others who warn that withdrawal would surrender one of Tehran’s remaining diplomatic and legal advantages.

Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, appeared to threaten withdrawal from the treaty on Sunday, saying that “political and destructive actions” by the International Atomic Energy Agency would “push countries toward leaving the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.”

But President Masoud Pezeshkian reiterated the same day, during a visit to India, that Iran was not seeking nuclear weapons. “If we were seeking nuclear weapons, we would not have become a member of the NPT,” he said.

The debate intensified after Mohammad Eslami, head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, was prevented from attending the IAEA General Conference in Vienna.

Austria had sought an exemption from a UN travel ban to allow Eslami to attend, but the sanctions committee did not approve it after a US objection.

Calls for immediate withdrawal

Supporters of immediate withdrawal say NPT membership has failed to protect Iran from international pressure or attacks on its nuclear facilities.

Continued membership, they argue, only makes sense if members’ nuclear rights are given equal weight alongside their obligations.

Sepehr Khalaji, who headed the Government Information Council under former President Ebrahim Raisi, questioned why Iran remained in the treaty.

“They bombed the nuclear facilities, martyred the scientists, sanctioned nuclear technology and say they will strike the remaining nuclear facilities. They referred Iran’s case to the Security Council, and they do not allow the head of the Atomic Energy Organization to enter the IAEA. So why are we still in the IAEA? Why don’t we withdraw from the NPT?” he wrote on X.

Parliamentary push

The debate has also reached parliament, where lawmakers are preparing a proposal for Iran to withdraw from the NPT.

Hassan-Ali Akhlaghi, a member of parliament, told the Fars news agency on Wednesday that lawmakers had prepared a triple-urgency bill that would be put to a vote if approved by the parliamentary leadership.

Given what he called the IAEA’s “entirely hostile and illogical” resolution, Akhlaghi said Iran should leave the treaty as soon as possible.

The proposal, however, has not yet formally reached parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee and is not currently on the parliamentary agenda.

Warnings of a trap

The conservative Khorasan newspaper on Wednesday warned that leaving the treaty could increase political and diplomatic pressure on Iran without producing significant security gains.

“On the surface, these positions may appear to be a revolutionary and deterrent response to the enemy; but when the pieces of the situation are put together, another worrying picture emerges,” it wrote.

Khorasan argued that the United States and Israel were deliberately trying to push Iran’s political debate toward more radical positions, including testing a nuclear weapon, changing its nuclear doctrine and immediately withdrawing from the NPT.

The newspaper said leaving the treaty before Iran had achieved deterrence could reveal Tehran’s intentions rather than demonstrate strength, potentially giving its opponents an opportunity to act.

“Iran has obtained an important part of the practical outcome without making an official and costly withdrawal: the IAEA no longer has its previous access, while Tehran continues to benefit from the legal protection of NPT membership and the political support of Russia and China,” Khorasan wrote.

“Official withdrawal would destroy this useful grey zone without creating a new strategic advantage.”

Reformist politician Rasoul Montajab-Nia made a similar argument.

“If the agency has not acted impartially toward Iran, we should not resort to disrupting the framework, because this would mean fuelling disputes and war with other countries.”

Montajab-Nia said withdrawal would not benefit Iran and would be “in line with Israel’s objectives.”

The nuclear threshold

At the outer edge of the debate, some advocates of developing nuclear weapons have argued that Iran should remain in the NPT unless it decides to change its nuclear doctrine — and then coordinate withdrawal with a nuclear test.

Foad Izadi, a hardline political commentator, told the Moj news agency that Iran had no need to leave the NPT while its current nuclear doctrine remained in place.

But if Tehran decided to change that doctrine, he said, Iran could withdraw from the treaty after a nuclear test or simultaneously with one.

September 23, 2026 Posted by | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

The Peril of Trump’s Final Act: Would He Use a Tactical Nuclear Weapon in Iran?

The real straits of Trump are dire: He is trapped in a war that has already been lost, a reality that he will never allow himself to admit. Under Republican control, the House has voted repeatedly to end the war. With Democrats likely to take the majority in the midterms, Trump faces the prospect minimally of investigative hearings that will bare the true extent of the losses, costs, and internal military opposition to his folly. He has to find a way to declare victory and get out, and soon.

Trump is trapped in a war that has already been lost, a reality that he will never allow himself to admit.

Robert L. Borosage, https://www.thenation.com/article/world/trump-iran-war-tactical-nuclear-weapon/

Donald Trump is trapped: His war of choice against Iran is lost, an abject strategic catastrophe. Now Trump has to choose: sustain another forever war until Iran breaks, a strategy his own generals oppose, or produce a grand finale to get out without admitting defeat. And there is the rub.

Reality has shattered Trump’s conceits. Instead of a few days, the war has lasted six months and counting. Instead of regime change and popular uprising, the Iranian regime stands with new hardened leadership. Instead of another display of US military prowess, the US military has been driven out of major bases across the region, stockpiles of vital offensive and defensive missiles have been depleted, and the US Navy has been overstretched and exhausted.

And Iran keeps ratcheting up the pressure. It controls the Strait of Hormuz, and its Houthi allies have just seized control of the alternative route through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and blown up Saudi Arabia’s key east-west pipeline. Crude oil is now over $110 per barrel and rising; the price of diesel—the fuel of commerce—is at record levels. The cost of fertilizer, fuel, and virtually anything that requires transport is going up, with the global economy at risk.

In response, Trump grows ever more delusional. “The failing Nation of Iran,” he claims, “wants to make a deal, quickly and badly.” He suggests that Iran is waiting until after our midterm elections to sue for peace, at which point the price of gasoline will “drop like a rock.” Then he muses that we might just stay in Iran: “We’ll ultimately get out, unless we decide to stay and keep the oil like Venezuela.” He turned to Oman as a mediator on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and then threatened that if it “gets in the way, we’ll bomb the shit out of them.”

He dismisses the war as “small potatoes,” claims full control of the Strait, suggests that the “Countries of the World…should and will reimburse the United States of America when this SCAM Confligration [sic] is over,” and jokes that he might rename the Strait “Trump Strait,” saying, “I should get something out of it.”

The real straits of Trump are dire: He is trapped in a war that has already been lost, a reality that he will never allow himself to admit. Under Republican control, the House has voted repeatedly to end the war. With Democrats likely to take the majority in the midterms, Trump faces the prospect minimally of investigative hearings that will bare the true extent of the losses, costs, and internal military opposition to his folly. He has to find a way to declare victory and get out, and soon.

Many experts report that the United States and Israel are gearing up to launch another full-scale operation, probably just after the US midterms. The Trump administration has just approved a $2.8 billion Israeli arms package that includes 40,000 bombs, half of which are 2,000-pound bombs. Even so, skeptics question how much a new bombing wave could achieve, given the depletion of US weapons stocks, naval power, and base support, without the use of nuclear weapons.

And that caveat makes the situation truly alarming.

Recently released satellite photos are said to show renewed construction activity under Iran’s remote Pickaxe Mountain. Heavily fortified underground facilities are thought to be located there beneath hundreds of meters of solid granite rock, a ceiling deemed impenetrable by conventional weapons. This makes it a natural spot for Iran to rebuild its nuclear program. Trump recently warned that the US would be bombing the mountain “very soon.”

At the same time, Hegseth’s Pentagon has been moving to integrate tactical nuclear weapons into conventional war strategy. The aim, as Under Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby put it in the chilling language of the megadeath intellectuals, is to provide “credible, rational nuclear options that a President of the United States adopting the simple principle of being a normal human being with common sense would actually implement.”

The United States, the only country ever to drop a nuclear weapon, has repeatedly refused to adopt a “no first use” policy. The president has sole authority to order the use of a tactical nuclear weapon. Neither Congress nor the public would be given prior notice. Would Trump use a tactical nuclear weapon on relatively isolated Pickaxe Mountain in Iran as his exit line?

According to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, using a nuclear weapon against a non-nuclear nation is a violation of international customary law. But Trump, as his noxious deputy chief of staff, Stephen Miller, infamously asserted, dismisses international law and treaties as “international niceties,” arguing that “the real world…is governed by strength, by force…by power.” Trump boasts that the only limit on his international power is “one thing. My own morality. My own mind. It’s the only thing that can stop me.”

Long-standing US policy, reaffirmed in the Trump administration’s 2018 Nuclear Posture Review, states that the United States “will not use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapons states that are party to the NPT [Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty] and in compliance with their nuclear nonproliferation obligations.” This promise extends to over 190 countries, including Iran —at least until last week, when the Trump administration pushed through an International Atomic Energy Agency resolution declaring Iran in violation of its obligations under the treaty. Iranian analysts warned, probably correctly, that the move presaged an imminent attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Dropping a nuclear weapon on Iran would not only be criminal; it would be incredibly dumb. Iran would respond by unleashing an assault on oil and desalination and energy platforms across the Emirates and an unprecedented assault on Israel.

It would also set off a race for nuclear weapons, as countries across the globe would understand that the reason Iran was targeted and not North Korea is that the latter has nuclear weapons and the former does not. Trump made that clear when he bizarrely told the zealots gathered at the Republican Midterm Convention that if Iran had nuclear weapons, “I’d be calling the supreme leader, and I’d be saying, ‘Mr. Supreme Leader, how are you, sir?  Is there anything we can do for you?’ as opposed to bombing the crap out of him.” As one commentator noted, the video of that could serve as a nuclear proliferation promo ad.

Use of a tactical nuclear weapon would set a precedent for Russia or China to invoke if they chose to use or threaten the use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine or Taiwan or other adversaries. It would put the nuclear arms race, already gaining dangerous momentum, into hyperdrive. And it would indelibly brand the US as a dangerous, pariah nation, feared but despised across the globe.

For these and other reasons, it is hard to imagine any president making that decision. But Trump, trapped, desperate, angry, delusional, intent on punishing his enemies and displaying his prowess, could well be tempted. And the anticipated Democratic election victories this fall will corner him—and that will make him even more dangerous, as we saw with the sacking of the Capitol after his 2020 loss in the presidential race.

These harrowing prospects should intensify efforts to bring the war to an end, and to warn clearly against escalation. The war is already opposed by a growing majority of Americans. Congress will be out of session until the midterms, but citizens can make certain that candidates are pressed on this issue as they campaign. Editorialists should weigh in against escalation. China’s President Xi, slated to meet with Trump in September, could put ending the war high on the agenda. US Arab allies in the region have an existential stake in avoiding a final cataclysm in this misbegotten war and should both demand restraint from the US and intensify negotiations with Iran and its Houthi allies. Recently, progress toward a settlement on Iranian “administration” of the Strait of Hormuz was interrupted by the Houthi offensive in Yemen and attacks on Saudi Arabia. European leaders could play a role, publicly warning Israel’s Netanyahu not to sabotage negotiations.

The last weeks of reduced military activity and apparent stalemate have been misleading. The economic costs of the war—now with oil transport through both Hormuz and the Red Sea constricted—are escalating. The pressure on Trump to escalate, to unleash another round of bombing in order to declare victory and get out, is rising. Without a concerted movement toward a settlement, the unimaginable is becoming more conceivable.

September 21, 2026 Posted by | Iran, USA, weapons and war | Leave a comment

United States blocks nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami from UN meeting in Vienna

Iran has condemned the exclusion of the head of its atomic energy organisation from an annual gathering of the United Nations nuclear agency in Austria.

The Nightly, Staff Writers. Reuters, 15 Sept 26

The United States has blocked Iran’s nuclear chief from attending a United Nations atomic watchdog meeting in Vienna by opposing an exemption from so-called “snapback” UN sanctions, prompting protests from Iran.

Iranian nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami had been due to attend and address this week’s International Atomic Energy Agency general conference, an annual meeting of IAEA member states that began on Monday.

At the opening, however, Iran said Austria had revoked Eslami’s visa after originally granting him one.

“The cancellation and so-called legal justification advanced for it are a stark indication of a political act and advanced formal politicisation of this organisation,” Iran’s ambassador to the IAEA told the conference.

Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said the United States had pressured Austria into the move while Iran and Russia said it formed part of a broader effort to prevent Iranian officials from obtaining visas for international travel……………………….. https://thenightly.com.au/politics/iran-protests-as-united-states-blocks-nuclear-chief-mohammad-eslami-from-un-meeting-in-vienna-c-22869942

September 17, 2026 Posted by | Iran, politics international, USA | Leave a comment

Trump Is Planning Round Three of the US-Israeli War Against Iran — But Will Tehran Strike First?

In conversation with Trita Parsi, Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute

Ian Proud, Sep 11, 2026, https://thepeacemonger.substack.com/p/trump-is-planning-round-three-of?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=3221990&post_id=215182894&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1ise1&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

This conversation with Trita Parsi, Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, was recorded before President Trump promised Americans $5,000 if he wins the midterms. That pledge does not change the argument. It sharpens it. With round three of the US-Israeli war against Iran looming, the big question is who will strike first?

Trita argues that the slow military escalation and economic warfare now under way are not the third round of the war against Iran. They are the preparation for it.

In his view, the United States and Israel are planning a much larger campaign after November. Trump believes he has already tried diplomacy, sanctions and what might generously be called limited war. What he has not tried is the menu of threats he issued and then abandoned: taking an island, striking desalination plants, hitting critical infrastructure.

After the midterms, Trita fears, that is the direction he will go. Israel is likely to be part of it. Washington kept the Israelis out of round two because it did not trust them to stay inside the box. If the United States no longer wants a box, Trump and Netanyahu may have another crack, despite prior efforts having proved a catastrophic failure.

That, Trita argues, is why Iran is hitting American bases in Jordan. Those sites matter because they help shoot down missiles bound for Israel. Tehran is clearing the path so that, when round three comes, more of its missiles get through.

The obvious objection is that Trump may emerge from the midterms a bruised lame duck. Trita does not think that restrains him. American institutions, he says, are weaker now than ever before. Congress has shown no appetite to defund the war. A Democratic House, and perhaps a Democratic Senate, would mean impeachment of Trump and a president playing defence at home.

However, that is when Trump has been most reckless before. After he lost to Biden in 2020, Mark Milley later said his fear was that Trump would look for an Iran war to block a peaceful transfer of power. He did not get that war. He got 6 January instead. Humiliation makes Trump dangerous, rather than cautious.

But the problem is that Tehran understands this and can see how critical the midterms will be to Trump’s power in the second half of his term. Trita therefore thinks there is a high likelihood that Iran starts the third round of the war a week or two before the midterms, to inflict the maximum political cost on Trump.

That may well damage Trump at the polls. But it may also leave him with fewer constraints and a taste for risk.

The escalation trap is now familiar. Washington reads every tactical gain — more oil leaving the Gulf, a weaker Iranian economy — as proof that time is on its side.

Trita’s warning is the opposite. If the squeeze actually works, Iran will not crumble. It will escalate. It has the options which it is demonstrating daily. Even if Iran fully reopened the Strait of Hormuz, the United States would not lift the blockade. The key demand on the American side has ratcheted up to state collapse, which appears no more likely to happen now than in February.

The Pentagon talks of bombing Iran periodically to degrade its ability to close the Strait. That is not a strategy, but rather “mowing the lawn”.

Yet, no one will be able to sell this war as a victory if in practice it means an on-off air campaign and no diplomacy as the world economy sinks further into depression. Which brings us back to the midterms and the fact that Trump may find that, despite the inducement of a $5000 bribe, many Americans will realise that what they need is a new lawnmower.

You can watch the full conversation here:

You can find Trita’s analysis on his Substack: tritaparsi.substack.com.

Wherever you are in the world, whatever your nationality and religion, I wish you much peace.

September 14, 2026 Posted by | Iran, USA, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Satellite images reveal surge in building activity at Iranian nuclear site after Trump’s bomb threat

Trump said the US would have to hit Iran ‘very hard’ if they found they’d been working on Pickaxe Mountain

Bryony Gooch, Thursday 10 September 2026 , https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/satellite-image-iran-pickaxe-mountain-trump-bomb-b3048042.html

The UN’s nuclear watchdog has said that nuclear activity is taking place at Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain, a day after new satellite imagery showed a surge in construction activity at the site.

Analysis of satellite images at the heavily fortified site, which is believed to host two deeply buried tunnel complexes, and the nearby damaged Natanz uranium enrichment facility, suggests there has been active excavation.

The development threatens to bring further escalation between the US and Iran after Donald Trump recently warned the US would bomb the nuclear site.

Researchers from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies used six years of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) change detection with Sentinel-2 optical change detection and very-high-resolution (VHR) Airbus imagery from July 9, 2026, as well as a Satellogic image from August 9, 2026.

The images revealed that there was more road activity at Pickaxe Mountain in 2026 than at any point in the site’s history, suggesting the raising and hardening of the portal accesses, paving of the internal road network, reinforcement around access areas, they said.

It comes as the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, told Bloomsberg on Thursday there was activity at Pickaxe Mountain.

Trump said at the midterm Republican convention on Wednesday that they would hit Iran “very hard” if the US found they’d been working on the nuclear site.

“We notice there’s a little activity ‌at Pickaxe. I would advise Iran not to get cute because we will have to hit them very hard,” ‌Trump said in a speech at the midterm Republican convention. He has been threatening strikes on Pickaxe Mountain since at least mid-July.

Fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis in Yemen has also escalated in the past few days, a second theatre of war that threatens global energy supplies from the Middle East.

Houthi militants have taken control of the Yemeni Red Sea city of Mocha and are launching attacks on the strategic Red Sea islands of Hanish, the Yemeni sources told Reuters on Thursday.

Government forces and their allies are relocating south to Dhubab, which sits directly on the strait, across from the island of Perim. Control of Dhubab and the island is key to gaining hold of the strait, they said.

September 13, 2026 Posted by | Iran | Leave a comment

Iran Targets US Warships With New Precision Munitions As Shock Offensive Rocks The ‘Greater Israel’

Robert Inlakesh MintPress News,  September 10, 2026, https://scheerpost.com/2026/09/10/iran-targets-us-warships-with-new-precision-munitions-as-shock-offensive-rocks-the-greater-israel/

Iran launches newly acquired precision missiles towards US warships in the Persian Gulf as the Trump administration’s ‘Economic D-Day’ backfires tremendously. In this Monday’s episode of The Target Stream Mint Press News’ Robert Inlakesh takes a look at the latest developments reshaping the US-Israeli war on the Islamic Republic.

Tel Aviv has raised its level of alert anticipating a potential surprise attack during the Jewish holiday period of Yom Kippur, fearing that Tehran may have in store a major multi-front offensive in the coming month. Whether the fears of a large-scale missile attack are based upon dependable intelligence or not, the Israelis have decided to escalate the war on neighbouring Lebanon regardless.

The Israeli army recently claimed that it had secured full “operational control” over the strategically important Ali Al-Taher Hills area in southern Lebanon, without providing any proof that such control has in fact been established. Seemingly contradicting their claims, they have continued to launch hundreds of strikes against the Ali Al-Taher hills and its surrounding area, which is of military value due to its position overlooking southern Lebanon’s Nabatieh governorate. An advance of this magnitude, which includes an attempt to dismantle a known missile base there, constitutes yet another flagrant violation of the shaky Lebanon ceasefire.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah has occasionally launched drone operations against Israeli soldiers and military vehicles, while holding itself back from reviving its daily operations against the occupying army.

On this edition of the stream we also look at the decision taken by the Ansarallah-led Yemeni government to launch new offensive actions to capture strategic locations towards the south of the country. The offensive led to major breakthroughs, including the encircling of the city of Taiz. In reaction, Saudi-proxy forces unsuccessfully launched their own counter-offensives in a bid to capture new territory in the province of al-Jawf and towards the city of Bayda.

Inlakesh also analyses the latest battle footage from Yemen, including new video documentation of the Yemeni Armed Forces using anti-personnel munitions dropped from Quadcopter drones and precision missile strikes, one of which eliminated an entire convoy of trucks carrying munitions.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also released footage of its missile strikes against US targets and for the first time drone strike documentation against tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. All of this contributes to the continued spike in oil prices, which US President Donald Trump has continually stated will begin falling.

Another issue addressed at length in the newest edition of The Target is the viral debate ongoing with Streamer Sneako, on whose show a number of guests have argued that former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is responsible for more civilian deaths than Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. We look at what the figures actually show and why so many people are engaged in spreading disinformation that works to undermine the Gaza genocide.

September 13, 2026 Posted by | Iran, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Energy secretary says US might not reach nuclear agreement with Iran

Chris Wright tells ABC there ‘may not’ be an agreement that would prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons

Maya Yang, Guardian, Mon 7 Sep 2026

US energy secretary Chris Wright said on Sunday morning that the US may not be able to reach a nuclear agreement with Iran that would prevent the country from having nuclear weapons.

Asked on ABC on Sunday morning about any sign of such a deal, as negotiations appear stalled and the US-Israel war on Iran continues, Wright said: “There may not be a nuclear agreement.”

He talked about options for ending the “existential threat” of a nuclear armed Iran coming about by further US military action to knock out the country’s capacity to manufacture and deploy such missiles, saying: “It may be simply [a case of] destroying their capabilities to do it” or else “an agreement may await the next administration in Iran”.

He later said on CBS that the US was not shutting down diplomatic outreach and was “always open for a deal”. Wright told that network’s Face the Nation show that the “biggest role” of the US military in the Gulf region currently was to stop Iranian energy exports.

“We are strangling their economy to try to bring either a change in policy from the existing regime or a new regime,” he said.

In an earlier interview with CNN on Sunday, Wright declined to declare the strait of Hormuz safe for oil tankers – unless they are being escorted by the US navy – and stopped short of saying whether the navy would need to remain in the Gulf region “indefinitely” in order to keep the vital energy passageway operating, as the conflict drags on.

This came despite Donald Trump’s repeated claims that ships can safely navigate the narrow marine waterway, and the US president’s insistence last week that the US controls the strait, while floating the idea that it be named after him – statements that were followed by further strikes from both sides in the area.

Wright, appearing for an interview on CNN’s State of the Union show on Sunday as well as ABC and CBS, was asked whether he could “unequivocally” assure safety to merchant ships transiting the strait. The question came after a New York Times report found that August was the deadliest month for merchant vessels in the area since March…………………………………………………………………………………

Wright was also asked by CNN if he would say the US is still at war. “We’re still in a conflict, for sure,” he said. On Thursday, the US vice-president JD Vance said at a White House press briefing: “I wouldn’t call it a war,” instead referring to a military conflict. Trump then defended Vance, saying: “A lot of people do not call it a war, I would call it a military conflict, because it’s small potatoes for us … it’s not a big thing.”

The Republican US senator John Kennedy of Louisiana was asked on Sunday by NBC if the war would be over by November.

“Probably not,” he said.

The conflict passed the six-month mark in late August. The former defense secretary Leon Panetta warned in an interview with the Guardian this weekend that it could last a lot longer. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/06/us-iran-nuclear-agreement-chris-wright

September 9, 2026 Posted by | Iran, politics international, USA | Leave a comment

US and allies push IAEA board to report Iran to UN Security Council, diplomats say

By Francois Murphy and John Irish, September 5, 2026,
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-allies-want-iaea-board-report-iran-un-security-council-diplomats-say-2026-09-04/

  • Summary
  • Board declared Iran in breach in June of last year
  • Israel started bombing its nuclear sites the next day
  • A standoff over access to those sites continues
  • Reporting Iran to the council escalates the clash

VIENNA/PARIS, Sept 4 (Reuters) – The United States, Britain, France and Germany are seeking a resolution by the U.N. nuclear watchdog’s ‌board next week reporting Iran to the U.N. Security Council for the first time in 20 years, according to diplomats and the proposed text seen by Reuters.

If passed, the resolution would follow up on one adopted on June 12 of last year declaring Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for not ​fully cooperating with an investigation into uranium traces found at undeclared sites.

Israel started bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities the next ​day, soon joined by the U.S. Iran’s uranium-enrichment plants were destroyed or badly damaged.

Iran has not let ⁠International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors return to the bombed sites since then or verify what remains of its stocks of enriched uranium, ​some of which was enriched to up to 60% purity, a short step from weapons grade.

FRESH DIPLOMATIC ESCALATION

A resolution by the IAEA’s 35-nation ​board reporting Iran to the Security Council would also be the culmination of a standoff over IAEA access to those sites, since the board has passed two resolutions in the past year demanding Iran declare its enriched uranium stocks and grant the IAEA full access to verify them.

“(The board) requests the (IAEA) ​Director General to transmit this resolution and the previously adopted resolutions … to all Members of the Agency and to the Security Council ​and the General Assembly of the United Nations,” said the latest resolution draft seen by Reuters.

It also “reiterates its call upon Iran to urgently remedy ‌its non-compliance ⁠with its Safeguards Agreement by taking all steps deemed necessary by the Agency and the Board, so that the Director General can provide the necessary assurances regarding the correctness and completeness of Iran’s declarations”.

The draft has not yet been formally submitted to the board and negotiations over the exact wording are ongoing, diplomats said. Whenever the four powers have submitted a draft resolution on Iran in ​recent years, it has passed.

Concrete action ​by the Security Council against ⁠Iran is unlikely since Tehran’s allies Russia and China are permanent, veto-wielding members.

IAEA CONCERNS OVER ENRICHMENT

Iran has often retaliated following IAEA board resolutions against it by escalating its nuclear activities or scaling back ​cooperation with the IAEA, but its options for both are currently extremely limited.

It is unclear what ​other repercussions there ⁠might be on Tehran’s conflict with the U.S.

As a party to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran has the right to develop nuclear technology, including enrichment, for peaceful purposes. Iran says it would never produce nuclear weapons.

It is, however, the only country to enrich to 60% without making ⁠a bomb. ​The IAEA has said the amount it has enriched to that level is ​of serious concern.

September 7, 2026 Posted by | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment