Israel, secretly having nuclear weapons, will not join the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty

Israel signals no change on nuclear policy as U.S. reaffirms anti-proliferation drive

By Dan Williams  , JERUSALEM, Aug 1 (Reuters) – Israel signalled it would not change policy around its assumed nuclear arsenal on Monday as Washington affirmed a global treaty designed to roll back the spread of such weaponry.

The rare, if veiled, remarks by Prime Minister Yair Lapid came as countries party to the 1970 nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) met in New York for a periodic review conference.

Israel has not signed the voluntary NPT, which offers access to atomic energy in exchange for the forswearing of nuclear weaponry.

It has been leading regional calls for world powers to crack down on NPT-signatory Iran’s suspected use of civilian nuclear technologies as cover for military designs. Tehran denies wrongdoing.

Addressing the Israel Atomic Energy Commission, Lapid spoke of the country’s “defensive and offensive capabilities, and what is referred to in the foreign media as ‘other capabilities'”.

“These other capabilities keep us alive and will keep us alive as long as we and our children are here,” he said, according to a transcript from his office.

Under a decades-old ambiguity policy designed to deter surrounding enemies while avoiding provocations that can spur arms races, Israel neither confirms nor denies having nuclear weaponry.

Scholars believe it does, having acquired the first bomb in late 1966. Israeli journalists, circumscribed by military censorship, often refer cryptically to such capabilities or cite foreign media reporting on them………………
more https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-signals-no-change-nuclear-policy-us-reaffirms-anti-proliferation-drive-2022-08-01/

August 1, 2022 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Israel, weapons and war | Leave a comment

ISRAEL AND THE NUCLEAR NORM

How does existential fear interact with nuclear policy?

INKSTICK Doreen Horschig 22 July 22, Globally, if you ask people “do you support the use of a nuclear weapon?” most people will say “no.” Public opinion polls consistently reflect such anti-nuclear stances and norms. Citizens of EU states that host US nuclear weapons are in favor of a global nuclear weapons ban. Chinese citizens strongly oppose the use of nuclear weapons under any circumstances and a majority of Americans think that the very invention of nuclear weapons was bad. Even under the shadow of the Russia-Ukraine War, 85% of Central and Eastern Europeans reported in March 2022 that there are no situations in which using nuclear weapons would be morally justified.

However, this public aversion toward nuclear weapons can erode.

In a recent experimental study that I conducted in Israel, I found that when faced with a threat to their security, respondents showed high support for nuclear use. In light of this, I explored why it is that people might deviate from anti-nuclear norms and become willing to endorse a nuclear strike against a foreign country.

. I found that when respondents are reminded of their own mortality, they are more likely to support a nuclear strike.

In other words, psychological mechanisms explain why people may violate the nuclear norm. Individuals move away from their existing moral principles and resort to an aggressive defense mechanism that they perceive as effective in destroying the root cause of an existential threat.

ISRAELI SUPPORT FOR A NUCLEAR STRIKE

Israeli support for a retaliatory nuclear strike in a real-life scenario is likely to be even higher than in the theoretical study. First, because the main finding for the support of the use of nuclear weapons in the study is based on a first strike by Israel. If an adversary uses nuclear weapons first, support for a retaliatory strike in response tends to be higher than a nuclear first strike. 

……… the results of the same study surveying Americans showed similar support for nuclear use in the case of an existential threat……………….

WHY PUBLIC OPINION MATTERS

Why should we be concerned about public support for nuclear weapons when elites hold the power in nuclear policy? After all, the current debate on gun legislation in the United States shows that public opinion has little to no impact on federal policy. Even though the majority of Americans support stronger gun control policies, few changes have been made. But public attitudes on nuclear weapons do matter for two main reasons, which are intensified by the rise of populism along with nationalist and authoritarian leaders.

First, leaders and war advocates can use the public’s existential fear to their advantage by inflating threats. ……………………

Second, leaders might be more inclined to use a nuclear weapon if they believe they have their public’s support……………………………..Recent research findings also suggest that the public is unlikely to act as a strong restraint on leaders seeking nuclear weapons. Hence, not only can a supportive public embolden leaders to use a nuclear weapon in nuclear-armed states, but also to proliferate in non-nuclear weapons states.

It is essential to educate the public on the realities of nuclear use. People support the use of nuclear weapons because they believe them to have a distinctive military utility. Yet, often conventional weapons are just as effective in destroying an adversarial target (unless, for example, it is a deeply buried weapons storage).

Beyond that, people need to understand the costs and consequences of such a strike. If aversion toward nuclear weapons can easily erode, public knowledge on nuclear weapons needs to be more robust to begin with.  https://inkstickmedia.com/israel-and-the-nuclear-norm/

July 22, 2022 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Israel, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Israel Expands Operations Against Iranian Nuclear, Military Assets

WSJ, 20 June 22, Israel is targeting a broader range of key targets in a series of covert operations, people familiar with the new strategy say, Israel is intensifying its campaign to thwart Iran’s nuclear, missile and drone programs with a series of covert operations targeting a broader range of key targets, said people familiar with the effort.

The new moves are the latest evolution of a strategy that has been dubbed the Octopus Doctrine by Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who aims to bring Israel’s battle against Iran onto Iranian territory after years of targeting Iranian agents and Tehran’s proxies outside the country in places such as Syria……………….. (subscribers only)  https://www.wsj.com/articles/israel-expands-operations-against-iranian-nuclear-military-assets-11655726066

June 21, 2022 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Israel, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Israel warns it could act against Iranian nuclear programme

Prime minister tells atomic energy agency chief that Tehran misleading world with ‘false information’

  Irish Times,   By Mark WeissFri Jun 3 202

Israel has warned that it reserves the right to act to prevent Iran obtaining a nuclear bomb if the international community fails to do so. …………

The talks took place ahead of Monday’s scheduled IAEA board of governors’ meeting, at which the US and the E3 — Britain, France and Germany — plan to push for the nuclear watchdog to rebuke Iran following a report by Mr Grossi that Iran has enough enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon and has not provided credible explanations for the IAEA’s findings of violations.

Iran has always insisted that its nuclear programme is peaceful and condemned the UN watchdog’s report as “not fair and balanced”, saying it “does not reflect the reality of the negotiations between Iran and the IAEA”.

“We will respond firmly and appropriately to any unconstructive action at the board of governors,” Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh warned in a statement.

Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said the IAEA head’s visit to Israel was in conflict with the agency’s impartiality, Iranian media reported.,,………

talks to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action were derailed after Russia invaded Ukraine and the decision by US president Joe Biden not to remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from the state department’s list of foreign terrorist organisations.

Amid the ongoing uncertainty of reviving the Iran nuclear deal, Israel’s military has stepped up preparations to strike against Tehran’s nuclear facilities and on Friday concluded a wide-scale exercise, dubbed Chariots of Fire, simulating attacks against underground nuclear facilities and reacting to expected retaliation from Tehran and Iranian proxies in the region. https://www.irishtimes.com/world/middle-east/2022/06/03/israel-warns-it-could-act-against-iranian-nuclear-programme/

June 4, 2022 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Israel, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Yes, Israel Has Submarines Armed With Nuclear Weapons (We Think)

1945, Maya Carlin, Middle East Defense Editor with 19FortyFive. 15 May 22

At the beginning of the year, Israel announced its plan to purchase three Dakar-class diesel-electric submarines for $3.4 billion dollars. Israeli media also reported that the cost of these submarines spiked in price during the negotiation process, likely due to the platform’s increased size and advanced capabilities.
. Rumors have circulated that the newly purchased submarines are equipped with a vertical launch system (VLS). When this type of system is installed on nuclear-powered attack submarines, a more significant variation of weapons can be deployed. According to Naval News, “If correct, the Israeli submarine isonly the second modern AIP (air-independent propulsion) equipped submarine in the world designed with this capability.”
Along with an advanced VLS system, this new class of submarines may be capable of launching nuclear weapons. However, these boats are mainly constructed more localized patrols, as these submarines aren’t nuclear powered. The Dolphins are significantly smaller than their counterparts in Russia and the U.S., plus its non-nuclear engines, while advanced, still limit the amount of time they can be underway safely. 

While the Dakar-class submarines will no doubt advance Israel’s Naval and deterrence capabilities, its first Dolphin-class boats imported from Germany in the late 90s should not be underestimated – as they took Israel’s nuclear deterrent and most likely placed it underwater.

…………………..   clearly, what makes these submarines truly special is what many believe is their nuclear-armed cruise missiles. While sources vary on specifics, many naval experts believe that these submarines are armed with a cruise missile that is nuclear-tipped that has a range of 1,500 kilometers.

The Dolphin-class boats are considered the most advanced and capable submarines on the globe. Additionally, the submarines are also the most expensive machinery that the IDF has acquired in its history. …….https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/05/yes-israel-has-submarines-armed-with-nuclear-weapons-we-think/         Maya Carlin is a Middle East Defense Editor with 19FortyFive.

May 16, 2022 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Israel, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Israel ranked as world’s eighth largest nuclear power

20 Apr, 2022 Idan Eretzm    

According to a report published by the American Federation of Scientists, Israel has 90 nuclear warheads.

According to a report published by the American Federation of Scientists entitled “Status of World Nuclear Forces,” Israel is the world’s eighth largest nuclear power.

The estimated global nuclear warhead inventories in 2022 are dominated by the US and Russia, which have 5,428 and 5,977 nuclear warheads respectively, out of 13,000 nuclear warheads worldwide. China has 350 nuclear warheads, France 290, the UK 225, Pakistan 165, India 160, Israel 90, and North Korea 20…………………………….  https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-israel-ranked-as-worlds-eighth-largest-nuclear-power-1001409769

April 21, 2022 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Israel, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Israel Simulated Attack On Iran’s Nuclear Facilities In Recent Drills

Israel Simulated Attack On Iran’s Nuclear Facilities In Recent Drills

The Israel Air Force has held a drill to simulate an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities with dozens of warplanes, as tensions remain high in the region.

According to an unsourced report by Israel’s public broadcaster Kan news on Tuesday, the classified military exercise was held some two weeks ago, with a US Air Force officer in attendance.

The drills that took place over the Mediterranean included various scenarios such as mid-air refueling, long-range strikes, and different responses to anti-aircraft missiles………………  https://www.iranintl.com/en/202202021753

February 3, 2022 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Israel, weapons and war | Leave a comment

It is time for Israel to come clean about its nuclear weapons.

It is time for Israel to come clean about its nuclear weapons, America The Jesuit Review, Drew Christiansen, January 14, 2022  Yet again, Covid-19 has led to the postponement of the 10th Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference, which was originally scheduled for 2020, the 50th anniversary of the treaty going into effect. The meeting of the state parties to the treaty is now delayed until this coming August. The treaty is the most important in the badly shredded network of arms control agreements that were drawn up in the Cold War and post-Cold War eras to prevent nuclear war and to set the world on the path to abolition of nuclear weapons.

The NPT is the one treaty to which the historic, or legacy, nuclear powers (China, France, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States) all belong. All have opposed the 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons that explicitly aims for the abolition of nuclear weapons. But non-nuclear states largely support the TPNW, as they believe the legacy states have abused the NPT to defend their own interests and, particularly in the last decade, to evade their own commitments to nuclear disarmament.

Non-nuclear states also perceive legacy states as playing favorites with certain nations outside the NPT, including Israel. In today’s nuclear landscape, however, Israel can no longer justify its evasiveness about its nuclear status, and its aggressive policies toward potential nuclear states among its regional rivals have made it a destabilizing force, constraining progress toward disarmament. It is time for Israel to come clean about its nuclear capacity and to join the international system of arms control.

The new realities of a multipolar nuclear world

While the TPNW establishes a duty for member states to try to universalize the treaty, the NPT has no such requirement. Its members seem content to sustain the status quo with a divide between the legacy nuclear states and non-nuclear states, with four nuclear-armed states outside the treaty (Pakistan, India and North Korea, in addition to Israel). In recent years, however, the bipolar balance of power between the United States and the former Soviet Union that sustained the treaty, with lesser powers in subordinate roles, has evolved dramatically.

This means that in its 52nd year, the NPT, with its current membership, is less useful as a framework for nuclear disarmament than it was only a decade ago. New realities include the fact that China is vying to become a nuclear superpower on par with the United States and Russia by modernizing its nuclear arsenal. Also, North Korea has become a powerful rogue state, developing a variety of weapons and delivery systems, challenging the United States, and threatening America’s East Asian allies of South Korea and Japan.

As for Israel, it remains the sole (though undeclared) possessor of nuclear weapons in the Middle East and seems determined to remain so. Securing its nuclear superiority has become the driving force of its strategic policy. After bombing nuclear reactors in Iraq and Syria, it has reportedly conducted assassinations of nuclear scientists and sabotage operations, and it encouraged the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the 2015 international agreement designed to deny Iran the potential for developing its own bomb. Senior Israeli aides now regard those moves as a mistake because the Iranian program has shown surprising resilience. The situation in Iran is also a reminder that in a multipolar nuclear world, with major actors outside the NPT, that treaty fails to provide the nuclear peace it once promised……………….. https://www.americamagazine.org/politics-society/2022/01/14/israel-npt-nuclear-nonproliferation-treaty-242184

January 15, 2022 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Israel, weapons and war | Leave a comment