Symposium 2013 Ian Fairlie

Assessing long-term Health Effects from Fukushima’s Radioactive Fallout – Dr Ian Fairlie

“…..Fukushima’s second anniversary in March 2013 is an opportune moment to assess its likely long-term consequences, although the accident is by no means over given the precarious state of the four wrecked reactor buildings – especially the spent fuel pond at Unit 4.

The figure below (reproduced from the French Government’s Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN 2011)) indicates the extent of the radioactive fallout from Fukushima’s explosions and gaseous emissions in areas near Fukushima. In addition, lower concentrations fell over other areas of Japan, over neighbouring countries and eventually circulating the Northern Hemisphere.

Exposure to radioactive fallout will result in radiation doses to the people living in these areas and this post will attempt to estimate future cancer deaths arising from these doses. Population doses are usually termed collective doses…….

First, it is important to realise that air emissions from Fukushima are much more important, in terms of health effects, than Fukushima’s sea discharges…….

In areas near Fukushima, most of the long-term dose to the public originates from Cs-134 and Cs-137 isotopes which fell from Fukushima’s plumes to the ground. These have longish half-lives (2 years for Cs-134 and 30 years for Cs-137) and they irradiate people with gamma and beta rays. This is called groundshine. Smaller doses originate from being immersed in the plume, from eating contaminated food and drinking contaminated water. In areas further away, the situation is reversed with most of the dose coming from ingestion and lesser amounts from groundshine…….

It’s important to realise that the use of 2.4 and 38 year soil weathering half lives means that groundshine doses from Fukushima (and Chernobyl) last more than 70 years – ie a lifetime. Many scientists remain unaware of this implication but it is based on good evidence.

The dose consequences are shown in graphical form in figure 1 below (reproduced from Beyea et al, 2012) which shows that, after 75 years, the total collective dose from groundshine is about 6.5 times greater than the groundshine dose received in the first year. Unfortunately the recent second WHO (2013) report on the health risks from Fukushima used a factor of 2 and not 6.5: one of a number of deficiencies in its report.

http://www.ianfairlie.org/news/assessing-long-term-health-effects-from-fukushimas-radioactive-fallout/

1.This Month

“Lessons from Fukushima” booklet, available in 14 languages.

of the week

Gender and Radiation Impact Project

Tri-Valley CAREs – Communities Against a Radioactive Environment

3 Reasons Why Nuclear Energy Is Terrible! 2/3

Pros and cons of public opinion polls – Jason Robert Jaffe

What About the Ozone Hole | Global Weirding

For First Time, Majority in U.S. Oppose Nuclear Energy, Gallup, BY REBECCA RIFFKIN , March 18, 2016,

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

54% of Americans oppose nuclear energy, 44% in favor
First time in Gallup’s trend that majority oppose nuclear energy
Both major parties less likely to favor nuclear energy than in 2015

WASHINGTON, D.C. — For the first time since Gallup first asked the question in 1994, a majority of Americans say they oppose nuclear energy. The 54% opposing it is up significantly from 43% a year ago, while the 44% who favor using nuclear energy is down from 51%.

Gallup asks Americans as part of its annual Environment poll if they favor or oppose the use of nuclear energy as one way to provide electricity. Each year from 2004 to 2015, a majority of Americans said they favored the use of nuclear energy, including a high of 62% in 2010.

In 2011, Gallup conducted its annual Environment poll a few days before the Fukushima nuclear plant disaster in Japan, and at that time, 57% of Americans were in favor of nuclear energy. The next time the question was asked in 2012, a similar majority still favored the use of nuclear energy.

And although there have not been any major nuclear incidents since Fukushima in 2011, a majority of U.S. adults now oppose nuclear energy. This suggests that energy prices and the perceived abundance of energy sources are the most relevant factors in attitudes toward nuclear power, rather than safety concerns prompted by nuclear incidents.

Lower gasoline prices over the past year are likely driving greater opposition toward the use of nuclear power. As Americans have paid less at the pump, their level of worry about the nation’s energy situation has dropped to 15-year-low levels. This appears to have resulted in more Americans prioritizing environmental protection and fewer backing nuclear power as an alternative energy source.

Democrats and Republicans Less Likely to Favor Nuclear Energy

Republicans continue to be more likely than Democrats and independents to be in favor of nuclear energy. Still, support for the use of nuclear energy among Republicans and Democrats has declined in comparison to 2015. A slight majority of Republicans, 53%, are in favor of nuclear energy, down significantly from 68% last year. One in three Democrats, 34%, favor it, down from 42% in 2015. Independents’ support is essentially unchanged from last year, but is down from the high Gallup found in 2010……..

Survey Methods

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted March 2-6, 2016, with a random sample of 1,019 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting.

Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 60% cellphone respondents and 40% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by time zone within region. Landline and cellular telephone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods. https://news.gallup.com/poll/190064/first-time-majority-oppose-nuclear-energy.aspx

EVENTS

November-December 2018 International Uranium Film Festival – U.S. Southwest tour

November 29th and 30th and December 1st, Navajo Nation Museum, Hwy 264 & Post Office Loop, Window Rock, Navajo Nation, AZ

December 2nd, Flagstaff, AZ

December 6th, Guild Cinema, 3405 Central Ave, Albuquerque, NM

December 7th, Grants, NM

December 9th, Jean Cocteau Cinema, 418 Montezuma Ave, Santa Fe, NM

PETITIONS

Tell Congress: Stop Trump from ordering a nuclear first strike without a Congressional declaration of war.

PREVENT UNNECESSARY RADIOACTIVE RISKS ACROSS THE USA NATION

Protect Idaho’s water. Stop nuclear waste.

nuclear-news

The News That Matters about the Nuclear Industry Fukushima Chernobyl Mayak Three Mile Island Atomic Testing Radiation Isotope