Symposium 2013 Ian Fairlie

Assessing long-term Health Effects from Fukushima’s Radioactive Fallout – Dr Ian Fairlie

“…..Fukushima’s second anniversary in March 2013 is an opportune moment to assess its likely long-term consequences, although the accident is by no means over given the precarious state of the four wrecked reactor buildings – especially the spent fuel pond at Unit 4.

The figure below (reproduced from the French Government’s Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN 2011)) indicates the extent of the radioactive fallout from Fukushima’s explosions and gaseous emissions in areas near Fukushima. In addition, lower concentrations fell over other areas of Japan, over neighbouring countries and eventually circulating the Northern Hemisphere.

Exposure to radioactive fallout will result in radiation doses to the people living in these areas and this post will attempt to estimate future cancer deaths arising from these doses. Population doses are usually termed collective doses…….

First, it is important to realise that air emissions from Fukushima are much more important, in terms of health effects, than Fukushima’s sea discharges…….

In areas near Fukushima, most of the long-term dose to the public originates from Cs-134 and Cs-137 isotopes which fell from Fukushima’s plumes to the ground. These have longish half-lives (2 years for Cs-134 and 30 years for Cs-137) and they irradiate people with gamma and beta rays. This is called groundshine. Smaller doses originate from being immersed in the plume, from eating contaminated food and drinking contaminated water. In areas further away, the situation is reversed with most of the dose coming from ingestion and lesser amounts from groundshine…….

It’s important to realise that the use of 2.4 and 38 year soil weathering half lives means that groundshine doses from Fukushima (and Chernobyl) last more than 70 years – ie a lifetime. Many scientists remain unaware of this implication but it is based on good evidence.

The dose consequences are shown in graphical form in figure 1 below (reproduced from Beyea et al, 2012) which shows that, after 75 years, the total collective dose from groundshine is about 6.5 times greater than the groundshine dose received in the first year. Unfortunately the recent second WHO (2013) report on the health risks from Fukushima used a factor of 2 and not 6.5: one of a number of deficiencies in its report.

http://www.ianfairlie.org/news/assessing-long-term-health-effects-from-fukushimas-radioactive-fallout/

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1.This Month

Draft Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons

https://s3.amazonaws.com/unoda-web/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/A-CONF.229-2017-CRP.1-Rev.1.pdf?mc_cid=750541a689&mc_eid=2d1420c6ab

of the week

Oak Ridge Environmental Peace Alliance

Climate Change Impacts

United Nations Debating First Ever Worldwide Nuclear Weapons Ban Treaty

How China became the world’s second largest economy

The meteoric rise of Chinese consumerism will reshape the world, and maybe even destroy it . Quartz, 4 June 17, BY Marc Bain @marcbain

When China was still largely rural, poor, and socialist, politicians exhorted the country’s people to patriotic activities such as increasing grain output for their economy’s sake. Now, to sustain China’s economic boom, the country needs good citizens to go shopping.

And the people have obliged. Between 2000 and 2010, consumption in China multiplied from about $650 billion to nearly $1.4 trillion, and the country’s big spenders have become notorious for ravenously gobbling up pricey Swiss watches and high-end handbags. Today Chinese shoppers’ appetites extend well beyond China’s borders, and can sway the fortunes of global fashion labels. Japan even coined the term bakugai to refer to an explosive shopping spree by Chinese tourists. The spending power and influence of China’s consumers will only grow as China’s middle class continues to rapidly expand.

Excerpts from Interview with Karl Gerth:

“….I think the Chinese dream is the American dream plus 10%. It’s not the European dream of restraint and conservation. I think they’re closer to Americans. They want even more, bigger, better—….

Chinese now see demand, in other words consumer desire, not as the death of production but rather as the start. Stoking consumer desire is one way of generating economic growth, rather than just, as socialist countries famously did, making steel and other producer goods ad infinitum as an end in itself. They push the idea that the way to make China wealthy and powerful is to stimulate consumer desire and allow economic inequality……

I think that China is a giant Rorschach test. You can look at it and see positive and negative in quite dramatic measures. Call me old-fashioned, but I think planetary survival trumps many other things, and therefore my Rorschach test largely comes up as negative.

There are epic amounts of air pollution, so much so that every person I know who lives in a Chinese major city, their go-to app is to figure out how dangerous the air is that day, and what they should do about it. That is hugely a consequence of of car pollution, plus all the other pollution as a consequences of them going down this developmental path……

Others should also realize that China is coming from a land of huge scarcity.

I would be slightly more tolerant of them wanting a small fraction of what the average American has before telling them that it’s an empty, vacuous existence and that they should focus on satisfying their inner desires through meditation rather than through Big Macs. https://qz.com/994345/the-meteoric-rise-of-chinese-consumerism-will-reshape-the-world-and-maybe-even-destroy-it/