Good Biden-Kim Relationship Necessary to Avoid a Nuclear Crisis
Because North Korea has nuclear weapons, the Biden administration cannot unilaterally impose terms on Pyongyang. Refusal to even talk with Pyongyang until it takes steps to denuclearize is a foolish and dangerous approach. Such an approach will likely inflame tensions and return Washington to a tense nuclear standoff with Pyongyang that poses a risk of miscalculation and accidental escalation into a nuclear war. Biden may be under pressure to be “tough” on North Korea to differentiate himself from Trump’s alleged cozy relationship with the North Korean dictator. However, a hostile stance toward Pyongyang will only make North Korea feel more insecure and drive Kim to pursue further nuclear development to ensure his regime’s survival.
North Korea sparks new nuclear weapons fears
North Korea sparks new nuclear weapons fears, By Sarah Keane, 20 November 2020 NORTH Korea sparks new nuclear weapons fears as experts confirm uranium factory is now active
The International Atomic Energy Agency watchdog has spotted fresh activity at Kim Jong-un’s ‘secret’ uranium factories, sparking new nuke bomb fears….. https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2020/11/20/north-korea-sparks-new-nuclear-weapons-fears/
North Korea, with its new intercontinental-range ballistic missile makes it clear that it is a nuclear weapons nation
A Nuclear North Korea’s Wake-up Call, A spectacular pre-dawn parade on Saturday served to remind the world of North Korea’s continuing missile progress. The Diplomat, By Ankit Panda, October 13, 2020 On Saturday, October 10, North Korea celebrated the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK), the country’s ruling party. The occasion was celebrated in a grand way, with an unprecedented pre-dawn military parade. Thousands of uniformed military personnel marched through Pyongyang’s renovated Kim Il Sung Square in perfect unison, trailed by scores of heavy military vehicles……..
The parade reached its climax with the reveal of an all-new intercontinental-range ballistic missile (ICBM) design. Prior to the parade, North Korea’s largest known nuclear-capable ballistic missile was the Hwasong-15, the ICBM that was tested for the first (and so far only) time in November 2017. After four Hwasong-15s rolled through Kim Il Sung Square, an even larger missile appeared in its wake. Four of these super-large ICBMs followed in the wake of the Hwasong-15s, in a single file formation. Not only were these missiles the largest ever to be seen in North Korea, they were the largest road-mobile missiles on integrated launchers seen anywhere in the world……….
For the United States, this missile is not good news. Not only does it underscore the failure of the Trump administration’s diplomatic attempts to constrain North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs; it also emphasizes the continuing growth of Pyongyang’s qualitative capabilities. A lot remains unknown about the precise capabilities of this new missile, but its sheer size certainly implies that it would be capable of carrying and delivering multiple nuclear reentry vehicles to likely the entire continental U.S. As North Korea’s weapons-grade fissile material stocks continue to grow, it likely will have enough fissile material on hand to justify allocating resources toward a multiple reentry vehicle capability. ………
By adding warheads to its ICBMs, North Korea will improve the probability that at least one of its thermonuclear reentry vehicles successfully penetrates U.S. missile defenses. To keep up with changes in North Korea’s growing force, the U.S. will have to spend hundreds of millions adding interceptors. North Korea, meanwhile, even under economic sanctions, appears fully capable of continuing to expand its ICBM capabilities………
Despite the nighttime setting, Kim’s reveal of his new ICBM made it clear as day that North Korea remained a capable and growing nuclear state………
What the parade does in the end is clarify the big picture about North Korea’s status as a nuclear weapons possessor: its nuclear forces grow larger and more refined with every passing week. Having largely crossed the qualitative thresholds it felt were needed for a rudimentary and minimally credible deterrent in 2017, Pyongyang is continuing to evolve its force.
Ankit Panda is editor-at-large at The Diplomat, the Stanton senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and author of ‘Kim Jong Un and the Bomb: Survival and Deterrence in North Korea’ (Hurst/Oxford University Press, 2020). Follow him on Twitter at @nktpnd. https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/a-nuclear-north-koreas-wake-up-call/
New North Korean missile will prove a big diplomatic headache for US, expert warns
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New North Korean missile will prove a big diplomatic headache for US, expert warns, 9 News, By Richard Wood • Senior JournalistOct 12, 2020 North Korea’s unveiling of a new intercontinental ballistic nuclear missile (ICBM) will impact global security in the months ahead, according to one expert.
The massive weapon was carried by an 11-axle truck during a military parade in the capital of Pyongyang to mark the 75th birthday of the isolated state’s ruling party on the weekend.
Malcolm Davis, senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, told Nine.com.au the display of the new ICBM shows that the Trump Administration’s talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un had failed…….. https://www.9news.com.au/world/north-korea-nuclear-missile-will-test-next-us-president/8c1ee861-4b14-47f9-93c4-e9466d06dfb9
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Kim Jong Un showcases North Korea’s biggest intercontinental missile
Pyongyang advances its weapons technology despite impact of sanctions and coronavirus, Edward White, 11 Oct 20,
Kim Jong Un Set to Show Off Nuclear Advances in Message to Trump
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Kim Jong Un Set to Show Off Nuclear Advances in Message to Trump, By Jon Herskovitz and Jeong-Ho Lee
10 October 2020, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is expected to hold his biggest military parade in at least two years and show off a nuclear arsenal that poses one of the most daunting security challenges for the winner of the U.S. presidential election.
The event — part of festivities Saturday to mark the 75th anniversary the Workers’ Party of Korea — could showcase the “new strategic weapon” Kim pledged to unveil at the start of the year. ….. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-09/kim-jong-un-set-to-show-off-nuclear-advances-in-message-to-trump |
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Reduced water level poses a problem for North Korea’s nuclear reactor, if it’s restarted
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Reservoir dam near N. Korea’s nuclear complex breached: think tank https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200926002900320
September 26, 2020 SEOUL, Sept. 26 (Yonhap) — A reservoir dam near North Korea’s Yongbyon nuclear complex has been breached, a U.S. think tank has said, citing recent satellite imagery.
The reduced water level has left the two pump houses servicing the reactors “high and dry,” with the water level above the dam down significantly and the intake cisterns exposed, said 38 North, which specializes in North Korea. “The inability to maintain a stable reservoir level … poses a potential problem for continuous reactor operations” if the 5-megawatt nuclear reactor is restarted or the Experimental Light Water Reactor is brought online, 38 North said, citing satellite imagery of Yongbyon complex on Sept. 21. The complex is home to the 5-megawatt nuclear reactor that was the source of weapons-grade plutonium for North Korea. Pyongyang can harvest one nuclear bomb worth of plutonium by reprocessing spent fuel rods from the reactor. The U.S. website said there are no observable indications that the 5-megawatt nuclear reactor is operating or that the Experimental Light Water Reactor has been started. |
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Satellite imagery shows North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Center is drying off after breaching of overflow dam
North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Center: Drying Off, 38 NORTH BY: PETER MAKOWSKY, FRANK PABIAN, JACK LIU AND JENNY TOWN, SEPTEMBER 25, 2020 EXCELLENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
Commercial satellite imagery of the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center from September 21 reveals minimal damage to the buildings throughout the complex, but notable damage along the river. Moreover, the breaching of the overflow dam, which regulates the water level of the river adjacent to the reactor area, raises a more serious concern about the ability to maintain a steady reservoir of water for the reactors when they may be operating in the future.
Additionally, substantial grain drying activities are observed throughout the complex and nearby town. While this is a common occurrence during the harvest season, the scale of what is taking place is well beyond what has been observed in previous years.
Reactor Area
There are no observable indications that the 5 MWe reactor is operating or that the Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR) has been started. Some vehicles are present around the 5 MWe reactor area, but this has become fairly common over the past year.
The typhoons, which recently impacted North Korea’s west coast, have once again shown the vulnerability of the reactors to seasonal flooding. This is despite the numerous measures taken to protect the site, including dredging along the riverbank to build up the embankments.
The eastern end of the reservoir dam has been breached, resulting in a dramatically lower water level behind the dam, a sharp contrast with the previously reported flooding. The reduced water level has left the two pumphouses servicing the reactors “high and dry,” with the water level above the dam down significantly and the intake cisterns exposed.
The inability to maintain a stable reservoir level, regardless of weather conditions, poses a potential problem for continuous reactor operations if the 5 MWe reactor is restarted or the ELWR is brought online.
Uranium Enrichment Plant (UEP)
At the Uranium Enrichment Plant, what appeared to be work on the cooling units in July to repair, replace or remove old units seems to have been suspended as post-typhoon clean up and repairs and harvest-related activities are currently underway.
Construction and clean-up on the nearby causeway and bridge continues. It appears that sections of the two man-made islands and channels that were damaged from previous flooding are undergoing repairs……. https://www.38north.org/2020/09/yongbyon092520/
U.S. general says that North Korea has a ”small” number of nuclear weapons (over 70?)
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N. Korea has ‘small number’ of nuclear weapons: US general, Korea Herald, By Yonhap, Sept 18, 2020 WASHINGTON — North Korea has a “small number” of nuclear weapons, the vice chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff said Thursday, although that number was not defined. Air Force Gen. John Hyten told a virtual forum that the specific numbers were “classified” and in many ways hard to understand. “But a small number is a confident characterization of nuclear capabilities that can threaten their neighbors or the United States,” he said in a symposium hosted by the National Defense University’s Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction. Hyten offered no further explanation of what he meant by “a small number.” The US has never officially discussed its assessment of North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, but the communist state is widely estimated to possess more than 70 nuclear warheads. In its latest annual report,” North Korean Tactics,” published in July, the US Army said the North is “estimated” to possess 2,500 to 5,000 tons of chemical weapons. With regard to its nuclear arsenal, however, the report simply states “estimates for North Korean nuclear weapons range from 20 to 60 bombs, with the capability to produce six new devices each year.” North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests, between October 2006 and September 2017. Hyten’s remark follows a recently renewed controversy, at least in Seoul, over Pyongyang’s nuclear capabilities. In his latest book, “Rage,” Washington Post journalist Bob Woodward discusses a US response to a North Korean attack that he says could include the use of up to 80 nuclear weapons……….. http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200918000129 |
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USA DID have a plan to drop 80 nuclear weapons on Nortrh Korea
Yes, The United States DidDraw Up A Plan To Drop 80 Nuclear Weapons On North Korea, In 2017, a war between North Korea and the United States was “much closer than anyone would know,” President Trump claims. The Drive BY THOMAS NEWDICK, SEPTEMBER 18, 2020.
Current nuclear war plans are among any nuclear-armed military’s most closely guarded secrets. Details of one such attack plan recently became available, however, revealing that the United States envisaged using 80 nuclear weapons in case of war with North Korea. The way this particular detail emerged is also pretty unusual — the associated passage appeared in U.S. journalist Bob Woodward’s book Rage, detailing President Trump’s administration, which was published this week.
In an interview with NPR, Woodward cleared up any confusion, noting that the 80 nuclear weapons were part of a U.S. attack plan — OPLAN 5027, which would include ‘decapitating’ the North Korean regime of dictator Kim Jong-un.
Woodward said that Mattis confided in him that he was not worried that Trump might launch a preemptive strike against North Korea. Instead, the source of his angst was the North Korean leader in Pyongyang.
In fact, such was Mattis’s level of concern that he would sleep in his gym clothes, Woodward claims. “There was a light in his bathroom… if he was in the shower and they detected a North Korean launch.”
There were alarm bells set up in Mattis’s bedroom and kitchen too, and on more than one occasion during the summer of 2017 they sounded the alert, and he entered the communications room in his Washington DC residency. Woodward explains that Mattis’s car was also constantly followed by an SUV with a team equipped to plot the flight path of any incoming missile, whether it was threatening Japan, South Korea, or the United States. If Mattis considered the missile hostile, he had a mobile communications link to issue launch orders to shoot it down. …………
Clearly, the status of a nuclear-armed North Korea provided much pause for thought within the U.S. administration during Mattis’ tenure as Secretary of Defense. That a strike plan against North Korea involving 80 nuclear weapons was discussed between the president and his defense secretary isn’t all that hard to imagine………..
One of the options under consideration in Washington was OPLAN 5015, a nuclear strike to take out the North Korean leadership, which Woodward also refers to, drawing again from his extensive interviews with Trump. Specifically, Woodward mentions “updating” such a plan — after all, Kim Jong-un and his predecessors will have always been priority targets in the case of an all-out war. ……………… https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/36519/yes-the-united-states-did-draw-up-a-plan-to-drop-80-nuclear-weapons-on-north-korea
In 2017, USA considered plans to attack North Korea using nuclear weapons
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US reviewed plans to use nuclear weapons on North Korea, strike leadership https://www.nknews.org/2020/09/us-reviewed-plans-to-use-nuclear-weapons-on-north-korea-strike-leadership/
Amid growing tensions in 2017, U.S. brushed up on plans to attack North Korea using nuclear weapons
Chad O’Carroll September 14, 2020 The United States reviewed plans to strike North Korea with as many as 80 nuclear weapons and updated leadership strike plans during the first year of Trump’s presidency, according to veteran journalist Bob Woodward’s new book, “Rage.”Woodward’s book reveals that, as tensions between North Korea and the U.S. sharpened in 2017 over Pyongyang’s testing of advanced missile technologies, then-Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis grew anxious about the possibility of nuclear war. Woodward cited direct interview material and informed sources to make these claims.Mattis did not think Trump would launch a preemptive strike on North Korea, but when tensions were
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The United States and its allies must learn how to live safely with a nuclear North Korea
On North Korea, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,Toby Dalton, Co-director and Senior Fellow Nuclear Policy Program, 9 Sep 20,
The United States and its allies must learn how to live safely with a nuclear North
Three practical goals should inform a new U.S. policy toward North Korea:
- Prevent crises that could lead to war
- Cap North Korea’s arsenal of nuclear and long-range missiles and prevent their export
- Buffer the alliances with Japan and South Korea against likely North Korean provocations
Additional objectives—for instance, preventing illicit trafficking and improving human rights—are important but ultimately secondary. Though desirable, regime change is too risky and uncertain to pursue, as recent experiences in Iraq and Libya suggest.
Accomplishing these three goals will require new negotiations just to establish rules of the road. North Korean demands are bound to be distasteful, but the costs of a negotiated agreement would be far less than those incurred through war or through increased military deployments in East Asia and the construction of a more extensive missile defense shield.
The costs of a negotiated agreement would be far less than those incurred through war.
Reaching a deal will involve helping North Korea overcome its suspicious, hard-nosed attitude. But an even greater challenge will be changing how Washington thinks about detecting and addressing the Kim regime’s possible cheating on a deal……… https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/09/09/on-north-korea-pub-82524
South Korea adviser calls for ‘six-party security summit’ to discuss North Korea nuclear issue
Moon’s adviser calls for ‘six-party security summit’ to discuss N.K. nuclear issue, Korea Herald, By Yonhap, 4 Sept 20, SEOUL (Yonhap) —A special security adviser to President Moon Jae-in on Friday suggested reviving the six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear program in the form of a six-way summit, saying the issue is not a matter only between Washington and Pyongyang.
Moon Chung-in, special adviser for diplomatic and security affairs, made the remark during a security forum hosted by the Korea Institute for National Unification, stressing the importance of a “top-down approach” in efforts to resolve the issue.
“We need to revise the six-party talks that we failed in the past and we need to hold a ‘six-party security summit’ so that the leaders can discuss the issue of security and come up with an agreement on common security,” he said.
North Korea’s nuclear activity still a ‘serious concern’: UN watchdog
Nuclear activities in North Korea remain a cause for “serious concern,” and the rogue totalitarian state continues to enrich uranium, which could be used in an atomic weapon, the UN’s watchdog said in a recent report.
The activities by the country are in “clear violation of relevant UN Security Council resolutions,” the International Atomic Energy Agency wrote in the report that was released Tuesday.
The report also notes that what was once the heart of the country’s nuclear program, the Yongbyon site, has likely been shut down since 2018 — and that no plutonium has been produced there in the past year.
Nuclear activities in North Korea remain a cause for “serious concern,” and the rogue totalitarian state continues to enrich uranium, which could be used in an atomic weapon, the UN’s watchdog said in a recent report.
The activities by the country are in “clear violation of relevant UN Security Council resolutions,” the International Atomic Energy Agency wrote in the report that was released Tuesday.
The report also notes that what was once the heart of the country’s nuclear program, the Yongbyon site, has likely been shut down since 2018 — and that no plutonium has been produced there in the past year.
Still, the information it’s able to get about the program is “declining” because the agency’s been locked out of the hermit nation.
“Knowledge of the DPRK’s nuclear program is limited and, as further nuclear activities take place in the country, this knowledge is declining,” the report states.
Vulnerability of nuclear reactors to extreme weather events. Flooding all too close to North Korea’s main nuclear reactor
North Korea floods kill 22, approach nuclear reactor — but Kim doesn’t want help, WP, By Simon Denyer August 14, 2020 , TOKYO — Flooding caused by weeks of unusually heavy monsoon rains has killed at least 22 people in North Korea, with four others missing, and even approached the country’s main nuclear reactor, but leader Kim Jong Un says he is too worried about coronavirus to accept outside help.
The International Federation of the Red Cross said the floods have left at least 22 people dead and four missing, citing the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea Red Cross and the country’s State Committee for Emergency and Disaster Management.
The floodwaters approached the Yongbyon nuclear complex last week, reaching the bases of two pump houses designed to cool the country’s main nuclear reactor, according to the 38 North website, citing satellite imagery.
The floodwaters have receded somewhat and pose “no imminent danger,” as the main reactor apparently has not been operating for some time and a nearby experimental light water reactor has yet to come online, said Jenny Town, deputy director of 38 North, part of the Stimson Center.
“But this year, the river level is usually high,” Town added. “If this were to happen when a reactor was running, it could cause problems in the cooling systems that would necessitate the reactors to be shut down.” ………. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korea-floods-kill-22-approach-nuclear-reactor–but-kim-doesnt-want-help/2020/08/13/f53992a8-ddda-11ea-b4f1-25b762cdbbf4_story.html
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