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The United States and its allies must learn how to live safely with a nuclear North Korea

On North Korea, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,Toby Dalton, Co-director and Senior Fellow  Nuclear Policy Program, 9 Sep 20, 

The hard realities of North Korea’s nuclear program require a new approach by the United States.North Korea’s nuclear weapons are a fait accompli. Kim Jong Un is determined to hold on to them to guarantee his survival. Neither unilateral disarmament nor military confrontation is a viable U.S. policy approach, and maximum economic pressure will not change Kim’s calculus. The United States and its allies must learn how to live safely with a nuclear North Korea.

The United States and its allies must learn how to live safely with a nuclear North

Three practical goals should inform a new U.S. policy toward North Korea:

  1. Prevent crises that could lead to war
  2. Cap North Korea’s arsenal of nuclear and long-range missiles and prevent their export
  3. Buffer the alliances with Japan and South Korea against likely North Korean provocations

Additional objectives—for instance, preventing illicit trafficking and improving human rights—are important but ultimately secondary. Though desirable, regime change is too risky and uncertain to pursue, as recent experiences in Iraq and Libya suggest.

Accomplishing these three goals will require new negotiations just to establish rules of the road. North Korean demands are bound to be distasteful, but the costs of a negotiated agreement would be far less than those incurred through war or through increased military deployments in East Asia and the construction of a more extensive missile defense shield.

The costs of a negotiated agreement would be far less than those incurred through war.

Reaching a deal will involve helping North Korea overcome its suspicious, hard-nosed attitude. But an even greater challenge will be changing how Washington thinks about detecting and addressing the Kim regime’s possible cheating on a deal……… https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/09/09/on-north-korea-pub-82524

September 10, 2020 - Posted by | North Korea, politics international, USA

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