The tally of North Korea’s nuclear weapons
Nuclear Notebook: How many nuclear weapons does North Korea have in 2021? Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
By Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, July 21, 2021 orth Korea has made significant advances over the past two decades in developing a nuclear weapons arsenal. It has detonated six nuclear devices––one with a yield of well over 100 kilotons––and test-flown a variety of new ballistic missiles, several of which may be capable of delivering a nuclear warhead to targets in Northeast Asia and potentially in the United States and Europe. However, there is considerable uncertainty about which of North Korea’s missiles have been fielded with an active operational nuclear capability.
It is widely assumed that North Korea has operational nuclear warheads for medium-range missiles. However, it is unclear whether it has managed to develop fully functioning nuclear warheads that can be delivered by long-range ballistic missiles and, following violent atmospheric reentry, detonate as planned. That said, just because North Korea has not yet publicly demonstrated a capability to deliver a functioning nuclear reentry vehicle on a long-range ballistic missile does not necessarily indicate that it is not working on developing one or could not field one in the future. It is clear from its development efforts and public statements that North Korea ultimately intends to field an operational nuclear arsenal capable of holding regional and US targets at risk.
Due to the lack of clarity surrounding North Korea’s nuclear program, agencies and officials of the US intelligence community, as well as military commanders and nongovernmental experts, struggle to assess the program’s characteristics and capabilities. Based on publicly available information about North Korea’s fissile material production and missile posture, we cautiously estimate that North Korea might have produced sufficient fissile material to build 40 to 50 nuclear weapons and that it might possibly have assembled 10 to 20 warheads for delivery by medium-range ballistic missiles.
North Korea’s nuclear policy
North Korea declared a no-first-use policy following its fourth nuclear test in 2016; however, it diluted its statement with the caveat that it would not “be the first to use nuclear weapons […] as long as the hostile forces for aggression do not encroach upon its sovereignty”………………
Nuclear testing and warhead capabilities
After six nuclear tests––including two with moderate yields and one with a high yield––there is no longer any doubt that North Korea can build powerful nuclear explosive devices designed for different yields. ………………………..
Medium-range ballistic missiles
North Korea has developed three medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs), all three of which are likely to be operational. This is the category of missile that is most likely to have an operational nuclear capability…………
Intercontinental ballistic missiles
The most dramatic development has been North Korea’s display and test-launching of large ballistic missiles that appear to have intercontinental range. North Korea has publicly shown five types of missiles in this category: the Taepo Dong-2, the Hwasong-13, the Hwasong-14, the Hwasong-15, and the Hwasong-16. These systems are in various stages of development, and some may simply be mockups or technology demonstrators……………………. https://thebulletin.org/premium/2021-07/nuclear-notebook-how-many-nuclear-weapons-does-north-korea-have-in-2021/
North Korea Needs the Bomb to Protect Itself From America
North Korea Needs the Bomb to Protect Itself From America
Pyongyang isn’t crazy, just focused on a credible threat.
Foreign Policy,By Doug Bandow, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute. 9 July 21, ”’………….. North Korea’s quest for nukes has helped make it an economic disaster, turning it into a global pariah and diverting resources from economic investment. That’s one reason the country, as Kim admitted in public recently, is facing another critical food crisis. However, it now is an unofficial member of the world’s exclusive nuclear club.
Nevertheless, the mere possession of nuclear weapons does not mean it threatens America with them. North Korea makes no pretense of having global concerns, other than using diplomatic relations for profit when possible. In the abstract, the Kim dynasty has no interest in the United States or even the Western Hemisphere. Pyongyang’s priority is regional, especially avoiding domination by another power.China exerted substantial influence (Russia less so) over the ancient Korean kingdom, long known as a shrimp among whales. Japan was a colonial oppressor during the first half of the 20th century. Most important today is North Korea’s relations with South Korea, as the two states remain engaged in a de facto civil war, short-circuited by outside intervention in 1953. One reason China’s importunities against North Korea’s nuclear program fall flat is because such weapons help Pyongyang preserve its independence from Beijing.
However, the United States has intruded in Northeast Asia. America intervened in the Korean War, maintains forces in and around the Korean Peninsula, is prepared to intervene in a future conflict, and regularly threatens to wage preventive war.
Indeed, Washington’s willingness to routinely oust governments on Uncle Sam’s naughty list makes the United States particularly dangerous. Washington can’t even be trusted to live up to a denuclearization accord, as Libya’s Muammar al-Qaddafi discovered a decade ago. The Iranians learned that one president’s word does not bind their successor.The North desires a deterrent. At the party congress earlier this year, Kim explained, according to a summary report by state media, that “Korea was divided by the U.S., the world’s first user of nukes and war chieftain, and the DPRK has been in direct confrontation with its aggressor forces for decades, and the peculiarities of the Korean revolution and the geopolitical features of our state required pressing ahead uninterruptedly with the already-started building of nuclear force for the welfare of the people, the destiny of the revolution and the existence and independent development of the state.”
That is a prolix way of saying Pyongyang needs the bomb to protect itself from Washington………… https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/07/north-korea-nuclear-weapons-united-states-deterrence/
How to deal with a nuclear-armed Kim Jong Un
How to deal with a nuclear-armed Kim Jong Un, by David A. Andelman, May 10, 2021, CNN,The Biden administration has pledged to pursue “calibrated” diplomacy.
to persuade North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to halt his mad dash toward a deliverable nuclear weapon. But that is a vain hope. Instead, the world and especially the United States must find a way to live with a North Korea armed with The Bomb. And keep Kim from using — or selling — it.
Discussions with a number of individuals who have dealt with the North Korean government or monitored the actions of its ruling family have convinced me that no Kim — neither Kim Jong Un, nor his father nor his grandfather — ever has or will give up a quest for a deliverable nuclear weapon. Nor is Kim likely to relinquish such a device once it can be deployed. Indeed, North Korea clearly does have any number of such devices — some analysts say it could be more than 60 — though the delivery vehicles are still in development.
That brings us to the realm of what may be possible and achievable. For Kim, possession of a nuclear weapon is a question of existential survival. His ultimate fear is no doubt the fate of Libyan strongman Colonel Moammar Gadhafi — dragged from a drain pipe by rebels and executed, a direct consequence of the decision to relinquish his own nuclear program that allowed his enemies in the West to undermine his regime.
Still, it’s not clear that President Biden or his principal advisers are prepared to accept any nuclearized North Korea. President Joe Biden has said that any diplomacy “has to be conditioned upon the end result of denuclearization.” At the same time, he and his team are rightly rejecting former President Donald Trump’s “go big or go home” approach — agreeing to remove all sanctions in exchange for North Korea fully dismantling its weapons program — which Kim rejected out of hand at their last, abortive summit in Hanoi……….
The essence of any such [diplomacy] plan must lie in the United States finding a way to persuade the North to join the global nuclear non-proliferation club. Implicit would be the acceptance that it already has a weapon. In turn the North will need to make its weapons and their security clearly visible and open to inspection…………
The essence of any such plan must lie in the United States finding a way to persuade the North to join the global nuclear non-proliferation club. Implicit would be the acceptance that it already has a weapon. In turn the North will need to make its weapons and their security clearly visible and open to inspection. https://edition.cnn.com/2021/05/09/opinions/north-korea-nuclear-biden-andelman/index.html
North Korea’s new tactical nuclear weapons means new dangers, new U.S. strategy needed
| North Korea’s tactical nuclear weapons expand deterrence, risk Experts say sanctions relief would get North Korea’s attention to return to negotiations as the country faces economic downfall. Aljazeera, By Frank Smith3 Apr 2021 Seoul, South Korea – North Korea appears to be well on its way to becoming a mature nuclear state despite longstanding United Nations sanctions, after Pyongyang’s tests in late March of cruise and ballistic missiles capable of carrying tactical nuclear warheads. North Korea’s nuclear development increased dramatically under leader Kim Jong Un, who took power in 2010 following the death of his father, Kim Jong Il. Kim Il Sung, the founder of North Korea and Kim Jong Un’s grandfather, conducted 15 ballistic missile tests between 1983 and 1993, according to the database of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a Washington think-tank.Kim Jong Il oversaw two nuclear tests and 16 missile tests. Kim Jong Un has presided over four nuclear tests and 91 ballistic missile tests, as well as the launches of cruise missiles and the firing of rocket-propelled artillery. “They clearly see this type of weapons development as a key to their survival, and they will not stop,” Eric Gomez, director of defence policy studies at the Cato Institute, told Al Jazeera, while at the same time suggesting there was a window through which the US could at least reduce the threat with greater efforts and compromise. North Korean missile development has continued even as the North has been subject to strict UN Security Council sanctions and through on-and-off talks on denuclearisation.Negotiations have now been stalled for about two years and North Korea has rebuffed offers to resume discussions from the new US administration under Joe Biden. Predictable patternThe development of nuclear and missile programmes has followed a somewhat predictable pattern……….. ……Kim’s wish listTactical nuclear weapons are one of the items on Kim’s wish list that elicit concern, because, despite Kim Jong Un’s assumed preference to maintain personal “assertive control” over any launch of North Korea’s nuclear weapons, with tactical nuclear weapons that expectation changes.“Tactical nuclear weapons are a big headache when it comes to command and control … as they lend themselves to pre-delegation to officers in the field,” explained Panda. That means tactical nuclear weapons could be more widely distributed throughout the country, to more officials capable of launching them in the case of a perceived attack, which raises additional concerns, according to analysts………… ………..the US will have to give more concessions than it has been willing to in the past. Experts said sanctions relief would get North Korea’s attention, particularly with the deterioration of the country’s economy as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and the closure of borders with China, its key trading partner.It’s an “important source of leverage … a door the North Koreans would be looking to crack open,” said the Carnegie Endowment’s Panda, advocating talks aimed at risk reduction. The Biden administration has said it will soon conclude its policy review on North Korea, which will provide some clarity concerning the new US president’s strategy towards Pyongyang……. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/3/north-korea-expanding-and-enhancing-its-weaponry |
Kim Jong-un wants ”arms control talks” with USA, not denuclearisation in the short term
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North Korea’s new nuclear gambit and the fate of denuclearisation, East Asia Forum, 22 March 2021 Author: Evans JR Revere, BrookingsIn March 2012, North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho told a group of US experts and former officials that North Korea would not denuclearise until the United States removed its ‘threat’. He defined this as the US–South Korea alliance, the presence of US troops in South Korea, and the US nuclear umbrella defending South Korea and Japan.
‘If you remove the threat’, Ri said, ‘we will feel more secure, and in 10 or 20 years we will be able to consider denuclearisation’. ‘In the meantime,’ he declared, ‘we can sit down and engage in arms control talks as one nuclear power with another’. Ri’s remarks provided valuable insight into North Korea’s strategy and goals at the time. Today, his words shed light on why North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has doubled down on nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Faced with a new US president whose North Korea policy remains unclear, Kim Jong-un has decided to pre-empt the outcome of the ongoing US policy review by ending all prospects of denuclearisation and expanding his nuclear and missile capabilities instead. In doing so, Kim hopes to compel Washington to engage in ‘arms control talks’ if it hopes to slow the North’s nuclear program. Kim’s gambit to change the main topic of US–North Korea dialogue from denuclearisation to arms control was hiding in plain sight in his January 2021 address to the Korean Workers Party Congress. He described North Korea’s nuclear weapons development as the nation’s ‘strategic and predominant goal’ and an ‘exploit of greatest significance in the history of the Korean nation’. Declaring North Korea a ‘responsible nuclear weapons state’, Kim’s message was that the regime is now a permanent nuclear power and Washington must deal with it as such. No less important was Kim’s announcement of a plan to enhance his nuclear and missile arsenals by developing ‘ultramodern tactical nuclear weapons’, multiple-warhead missiles and solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles. Kim’s remarks signalled his determination to make a dangerous threat even more potent. Much has been said about the Biden administration’s ongoing North Korea policy review. But Kim Jong-un’s remarks to the Party Congress suggest Pyongyang has conducted its own review, the result of which will be a major challenge for a new US administration still finding its feet…………… https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2021/03/22/north-koreas-new-nuclear-gambit-and-the-fate-of-denuclearisation/ |
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Expert panel reports that North Korea is relying on cyberattacks to fund nuclear weapons.
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North Korea relying on cyberattacks to fund nuclear weapons: experts https://coingeek.com/north-korea-relying-on-cyberattacks-to-fund-nuclear-weapons-experts/ Ed Drake-12 Feb 21,
North Korea has relied on cyberattacks to fund an upgrade to its nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles arsenal, with help with materials and technology from other rogue states such as Iran, according to findings by experts examining the impact of sanctions on the country. A panel of experts at the United Nations, tasked with monitoring the impact and enforcement of sanctions against the country, reported their findings to members of the Security Council this week, suggesting that a “total theft of virtual assets from 2019 to November 2020…valued at approximately $316.4 million.” North Korea is subject to international sanctions designed to prevent the funding of its nuclear and ballistic weapons programs. The UN findings show the role cybercrime has played in funding the illegal development of weapons in North Korea, as well as the risks posed to digital currency users holding their money on cryptocurrency exchanges.
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Kim Jong Un signals plans to develop new nuclear weapons
Kim Jong Un signals plans to develop new nuclear weapons. North Korea raises tensions with incoming US administration of Joe Biden. Ft.com Edward White in Seoul JANUARY 9 2021 Kim Jong Un has signalled plans to develop new nuclear weapons and described the US as North Korea’s “biggest enemy”, moves that threaten to raise tensions with US president-elect Joe Biden. The North Korean leader’s comments, made at a rare gathering of top political officials in Pyongyang, marked the dictator’s strongest broadside against Washington since Mr Biden won the presidency in November’s election.
“Our external political activities going forward should be focused on suppressing and subduing the US, the basic obstacle, biggest enemy against our revolutionary development,” Mr Kim said, according to a translation by South Korea’s Yonhap news agency. ………. https://www.ft.com/content/b4971c6e-8b89-43b5-93d2-9098d5f229ef
Economic crisis forces North Korea to put new nuclear parade facilities on ice.
Kim Jong Un forced to put new nuclear parade facilities on ice. Satellite images show economic crisis is delaying North Korean leader’s vanity projects, Edward White in Seoul, DECEMBER 24 2020 “…….”…….The delays are the latest indications of the financial crisis unfolding in the secretive state, where the economy has been buffeted by sanctions, pandemic-linked border closures and damage from extreme flooding and typhoons this year. Rapid construction previously observed at Wonsan, as well as a new hospital in Pyongyang and facilities at a training ground for the regime’s theatrical nuclear weapons parades continue to “lose steam”, according to analysis of images published on Wednesday by 38 North, a programme run by the Stimson Center, a US think-tank. ……. https://www.ft.com/content/68dd3c40-5add-4ce7-979c-63cbb945aa58
Good Biden-Kim Relationship Necessary to Avoid a Nuclear Crisis
Because North Korea has nuclear weapons, the Biden administration cannot unilaterally impose terms on Pyongyang. Refusal to even talk with Pyongyang until it takes steps to denuclearize is a foolish and dangerous approach. Such an approach will likely inflame tensions and return Washington to a tense nuclear standoff with Pyongyang that poses a risk of miscalculation and accidental escalation into a nuclear war. Biden may be under pressure to be “tough” on North Korea to differentiate himself from Trump’s alleged cozy relationship with the North Korean dictator. However, a hostile stance toward Pyongyang will only make North Korea feel more insecure and drive Kim to pursue further nuclear development to ensure his regime’s survival.
North Korea sparks new nuclear weapons fears
North Korea sparks new nuclear weapons fears, By Sarah Keane, 20 November 2020 NORTH Korea sparks new nuclear weapons fears as experts confirm uranium factory is now active
The International Atomic Energy Agency watchdog has spotted fresh activity at Kim Jong-un’s ‘secret’ uranium factories, sparking new nuke bomb fears….. https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2020/11/20/north-korea-sparks-new-nuclear-weapons-fears/
North Korea, with its new intercontinental-range ballistic missile makes it clear that it is a nuclear weapons nation
A Nuclear North Korea’s Wake-up Call, A spectacular pre-dawn parade on Saturday served to remind the world of North Korea’s continuing missile progress. The Diplomat, By Ankit Panda, October 13, 2020 On Saturday, October 10, North Korea celebrated the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK), the country’s ruling party. The occasion was celebrated in a grand way, with an unprecedented pre-dawn military parade. Thousands of uniformed military personnel marched through Pyongyang’s renovated Kim Il Sung Square in perfect unison, trailed by scores of heavy military vehicles……..
The parade reached its climax with the reveal of an all-new intercontinental-range ballistic missile (ICBM) design. Prior to the parade, North Korea’s largest known nuclear-capable ballistic missile was the Hwasong-15, the ICBM that was tested for the first (and so far only) time in November 2017. After four Hwasong-15s rolled through Kim Il Sung Square, an even larger missile appeared in its wake. Four of these super-large ICBMs followed in the wake of the Hwasong-15s, in a single file formation. Not only were these missiles the largest ever to be seen in North Korea, they were the largest road-mobile missiles on integrated launchers seen anywhere in the world……….
For the United States, this missile is not good news. Not only does it underscore the failure of the Trump administration’s diplomatic attempts to constrain North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs; it also emphasizes the continuing growth of Pyongyang’s qualitative capabilities. A lot remains unknown about the precise capabilities of this new missile, but its sheer size certainly implies that it would be capable of carrying and delivering multiple nuclear reentry vehicles to likely the entire continental U.S. As North Korea’s weapons-grade fissile material stocks continue to grow, it likely will have enough fissile material on hand to justify allocating resources toward a multiple reentry vehicle capability. ………
By adding warheads to its ICBMs, North Korea will improve the probability that at least one of its thermonuclear reentry vehicles successfully penetrates U.S. missile defenses. To keep up with changes in North Korea’s growing force, the U.S. will have to spend hundreds of millions adding interceptors. North Korea, meanwhile, even under economic sanctions, appears fully capable of continuing to expand its ICBM capabilities………
Despite the nighttime setting, Kim’s reveal of his new ICBM made it clear as day that North Korea remained a capable and growing nuclear state………
What the parade does in the end is clarify the big picture about North Korea’s status as a nuclear weapons possessor: its nuclear forces grow larger and more refined with every passing week. Having largely crossed the qualitative thresholds it felt were needed for a rudimentary and minimally credible deterrent in 2017, Pyongyang is continuing to evolve its force.
Ankit Panda is editor-at-large at The Diplomat, the Stanton senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and author of ‘Kim Jong Un and the Bomb: Survival and Deterrence in North Korea’ (Hurst/Oxford University Press, 2020). Follow him on Twitter at @nktpnd. https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/a-nuclear-north-koreas-wake-up-call/
New North Korean missile will prove a big diplomatic headache for US, expert warns
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New North Korean missile will prove a big diplomatic headache for US, expert warns, 9 News, By Richard Wood • Senior JournalistOct 12, 2020 North Korea’s unveiling of a new intercontinental ballistic nuclear missile (ICBM) will impact global security in the months ahead, according to one expert.
The massive weapon was carried by an 11-axle truck during a military parade in the capital of Pyongyang to mark the 75th birthday of the isolated state’s ruling party on the weekend.
Malcolm Davis, senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, told Nine.com.au the display of the new ICBM shows that the Trump Administration’s talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un had failed…….. https://www.9news.com.au/world/north-korea-nuclear-missile-will-test-next-us-president/8c1ee861-4b14-47f9-93c4-e9466d06dfb9
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Kim Jong Un showcases North Korea’s biggest intercontinental missile
Pyongyang advances its weapons technology despite impact of sanctions and coronavirus, Edward White, 11 Oct 20,
Kim Jong Un Set to Show Off Nuclear Advances in Message to Trump
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Kim Jong Un Set to Show Off Nuclear Advances in Message to Trump, By Jon Herskovitz and Jeong-Ho Lee
10 October 2020, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is expected to hold his biggest military parade in at least two years and show off a nuclear arsenal that poses one of the most daunting security challenges for the winner of the U.S. presidential election.
The event — part of festivities Saturday to mark the 75th anniversary the Workers’ Party of Korea — could showcase the “new strategic weapon” Kim pledged to unveil at the start of the year. ….. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-09/kim-jong-un-set-to-show-off-nuclear-advances-in-message-to-trump |
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Reduced water level poses a problem for North Korea’s nuclear reactor, if it’s restarted
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Reservoir dam near N. Korea’s nuclear complex breached: think tank https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200926002900320
September 26, 2020 SEOUL, Sept. 26 (Yonhap) — A reservoir dam near North Korea’s Yongbyon nuclear complex has been breached, a U.S. think tank has said, citing recent satellite imagery.
The reduced water level has left the two pump houses servicing the reactors “high and dry,” with the water level above the dam down significantly and the intake cisterns exposed, said 38 North, which specializes in North Korea. “The inability to maintain a stable reservoir level … poses a potential problem for continuous reactor operations” if the 5-megawatt nuclear reactor is restarted or the Experimental Light Water Reactor is brought online, 38 North said, citing satellite imagery of Yongbyon complex on Sept. 21. The complex is home to the 5-megawatt nuclear reactor that was the source of weapons-grade plutonium for North Korea. Pyongyang can harvest one nuclear bomb worth of plutonium by reprocessing spent fuel rods from the reactor. The U.S. website said there are no observable indications that the 5-megawatt nuclear reactor is operating or that the Experimental Light Water Reactor has been started. |
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