Iran’s Revolutionary Guards chief says -The world knows Iran is not pursuing nuclear weapon
Iran threatened on Monday to restart deactivated centrifuges and ramp up enrichment of uranium to 20 percent purity as its next potential big moves away from a 2015 nuclear agreement that Washington abandoned last year.
“Why do they globally sanction us about the nuclear issue when the world knows that we are not pursuing a weapon? In reality they are sanctioning us because of knowledge,” he said. “Nuclear weapons have no place in Islam. Islam never approves of weapons of mass destruction.”
Reporting By Babak Dehghanpisheh, Editing by William Maclean
Australia would be wise not to mindlessly follow USA into war against Iran
We must think very carefully before committing to war in the Gulf, The Age, By Hossein Esmaeili, July 8, 2019 Conflict between the United States and Iran is deepening and the two states are marching towards war. The Persian Gulf, where a third of the world’s natural gas and a fifth of the world’s oil is sourced, may soon see another large scale and probably long-lasting international conflict………
the European Union is backing measures, provided by France, United Kingdom and Germany, known as Instruments In Support of Trade Exchange (INSTEX), to facilitate trade between the EU and Iran to partially get around the US sanctions, in order to save the 2015 nuclear deal, to maintain dialogue with Iran and to prevent an international military crisis.
Australia would be much wiser to join the EU’s INSTEX and engage in dialogue with Iran……..
Should Morrison decide to enter into a conflict in one of the most volatile regions of the world, he will not have the decision-making power to end it. He would do well not to drive Australia into such a war, instead, given Australia’s international reputation, he should help European countries, the world community and the United Nations to avoid a useless armed conflict, which will not benefit any country.
Hossein Esmaeili is an associate professor of international law at Flinders University. https://www.theage.com.au/world/middle-east/we-must-think-very-carefully-before-committing-to-war-in-the-gulf-20190708-p52566.html
Special UN meeting to discuss Iran: Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany try to keep nuclear deal
UN nuclear watchdog to hold special meeting on Iran at request of US, RTE, 6 July 19 The United States has called an emergency meeting of the UN atomic watchdog’s 35-nation Board of Governors to discuss Iran, according to the US mission to the agency.
It comes after Tehran breached its 2015 nuclear deal with major powers.
Any country on the board can call a meeting, and the International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed in a note to member states that the meeting would be held next Wednesday after the IAEA this week said Iran had exceeded the maximum stock of enriched uranium allowed under the deal……..
The IAEA is in charge of verifying the restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities imposed by the deal, which also lifted international sanctions against Tehran. The IAEA has repeatedly said it is up to the parties to the deal to decide whether there has been a breach of its terms.
Iran has said it will go over the deal’s nuclear restrictions one by one in retaliation against crippling economic sanctions Washington has imposed on it since the US withdrawal. It has said that as of 7 July it will enrich uranium beyond the 3.67% purity cap imposed by the deal.
Other signatories to the 2015 deal, apart from Iran and the United States, are Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany. Those five countries are trying to keep the deal alive. https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0706/1060486-un-nuclear-watchdog-iran/
Israel lobby in US pushing for war against Iran: Analyst
Russia’s President Putin officially halts participation in nuclear treaty
Putin signs bill suspending participation in nuclear treaty https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/07/03/world/putin-signs-bill-suspending-participation-nuclear-treaty/#.XR0oyOszbGg 3 July 19
MOSCOW – President Vladimir Putin has signed a bill suspending Russia’s participation in a pivotal nuclear arms treaty. Putin’s decree released on Wednesday formalizes Russia’s departure from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty with the United States following Washington’s withdrawal from the pact.
The U.S. gave notice of its intention to withdraw from the INF in February, setting the stage for it to terminate in six months unless Moscow returns to compliance. Russia has denied any breaches, and accused the U.S. of violating the pact. Moscow followed Washington’s example in February, also suspending its obligations under the treaty.
Putin has warned the U.S. against deploying new missiles in Europe, saying that Russia will retaliate by fielding new fast weapons that will take just as little time to reach their targets.
USA Has Put Europe In A Tough Spot On Iran
CORNISH: You used the term bully earlier in talking about the U.S. effort when it comes to Iran. Do you see this as a test of European power, whether it’s strong enough to oppose the U.S. and enforce this deal?
DALTON: European companies and the European Union recognize that the dominance of the dollar in international trading gives the United States very considerable power. And I believe that the Iran episode is going to be a turning point. It will show Russia, China, India, the European Union the value of building up alternative mechanisms for concluding international trade that do not use the dollar in any shape or form.
So I think the United States is set maybe to use their excessive power on this occasion but, over the long term, to lose power. ……https://www.npr.org/2019/07/02/738146393/british-nuclear-expert-says-u-s-has-put-europe-in-a-tough-spot-on-iran
Climate change at G20: nuclear included in plans, but not with enthusiasm
David Lowry’s Blog 2nd June 2019 Climate change was the only issue where consensus failed to be reached at the G20 meeting of leaders of the globe’s biggest economies, held in in
Osaka, Japan at the end of last week. Nuclear still is seen as having a
place in the energy mix, but without any real enthusiasm. http://drdavidlowry.blogspot.com/2019/07/g20-in-osaka-blows-hot-and-cold-over.html
USA Security Adviser John Bolton denies report of ‘nuclear freeze’ agreement with North Korea
John Bolton shoots down report of ‘nuclear freeze’ agreement with North KoreaWhite House adviser dismisses reports of a ‘freeze’ of North Korea’s nuclear weapons arsenal. Politico, By QUINT FORGEY 7/1/19, White House National Security Adviser John Bolton on Monday dismissed reports that the administration is considering agreeing to a “freeze” of North Korea’s nuclear weapons arsenal as opposed to a more comprehensive denuclearization pact.Prior to U.S. President Donald Trump’s meeting Sunday with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un — where Trump became the first sitting commander-in-chief to step into the isolated communist state — the New York Times reported that administration officials have been mulling a deal with Pyongyang to halt production of new nuclear material as a way to kickstart a new round of talks with Kim’s regime. But the head of Trump’s National Security Council slammed the Times story, writing online that “there should be consequences” for its publishing. Bolton did not specify whether it was the Times or whoever its source was that should face those consequences.
“I read this NYT story with curiosity. Neither the NSC staff nor I have discussed or heard of any desire to ‘settle for a nuclear freeze by North Korea,’” Bolton tweeted, describing the report as “a reprehensible attempt by someone to box in the President.”…… The North Korean government has been especially critical of Bolton throughout Trump’s yearlong crusade to broker an arms agreement with Pyongyang, with a foreign ministry spokesman branding the hawkish former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations as a “warmonger” and “defective human product” in May. https://www.politico.eu/article/john-bolton-shoots-down-report-of-nuclear-freeze-agreement-with-north-korea/ |
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Report that Trump administration is considering accepting North Korea as a nuclear power
New York Times: Trump administration mulling plan that would accept North Korea as a nuclear power, By Devan Cole, CNN July 1, 2019 Washington The Trump administration is mulling a potential deal with North Korea that would accept the country as a nuclear power if it freezes its existing nuclear programs in exchange for the US lifting its “most onerous” sanctions against the country, The New York Times reported Sunday.
The plan would aim to prevent more nuclear weapons from being created in the country, but “it would not, at least in the near future, dismantle any existing weapons, variously estimated at 20 to 60. Nor would it limit the North’s missile capability,” according to the paper.
The Times, which noted that US officials previously said they would never support such a plan, said officials in the administration hope the idea “might create a foundation for a new round of negotiations” with North Korea and noted that the administration’s current goal is still to fully denuclearize the country.
………. As a part of the plan reported by the Times, US negotiators would try to get North Korean negotiators to agree to “expand the definition” of Yongbyon, the country’s main nuclear-fuel production site. Under the potentially new definition of Yongbyon, the site would reach “beyond its physical barriers” to include various facilities around the country, including one where America and South Korea believe the country is producing uranium fuel.
A senior US official involved in North Korean policy told the Times “there was no way to know if North Korea would agree to this,” and noted that in the past, North Korean negotiators “insisted” that only Kim “could define what dismantling Yongbyon meant,” according to the report.
Stephen E. Biegun, the State Department’s special representative for North Korea, told the Times on Sunday that the paper’s account of the administration’s potential deal was “pure speculation” and that his team was “not preparing any new proposal currently,” saying, “What is accurate is not new, and what is new is not accurate.”
White House national security adviser John Bolton also disputed the Times report Monday, tweeting that he read the story “with curiosity.”……….
Former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper told CNN’s John Berman that “the general idea of accepting the current nuclear arsenal, whatever it is, is a good start point.”
“I’ve come around to the position some months ago that perhaps as at least an initial plateau, in the interest of getting something done, it might be worth considering capping what the North Koreans have now and then maybe on a much longer term basis trying, you know, to get them to reduce their nuclear holdings to zero, which I think is going to be very difficult,” Clapper said Monday on CNN’s “New Day.”
Clapper, who served in the Obama administration, said the plan reported by the Times would “require some very complex negotiations” and that it would need a verification regime, which “would be a hard pill for the North Koreans to swallow.”https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/01/politics/north-korea-nuclear-freeze-trump-administration/index.html
‘Wonderful chemistry’ between Trump and Kim, as nuclear negotiations remain stalled
Keeping Up With the Plot of the Trump-Kim Nuclear Show, Bloomberg, By Jon Herskovitz and Youkyung Lee, July 1, 2019, Three meetings between the leaders of the U.S. and North Korea resulted in no concrete plans to end Pyongyang’s atomic ambitions. President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un have toned down hostile rhetoric since they first shook hands in Singapore in June 2018. They were cordial even after their second summit broke down in Hanoi in February, and took an historic stroll together into North Korea four months later. All the while, Pyongyang’s nuclear program quietly advanced as U.S.-backed sanctions choked its moribund economy. The two countries can’t agree on what the denuclearization of North Korea means and what rewards should be given, if any, in response to Pyongyang’s moves toward disarmament. But Trump has invited Kim to the White House, while a top aide to Kim has touted the “mysteriously wonderful” chemistry between the two leaders.
1. What have they agreed to?
The first summit resulted in a bare-bones declaration that contained four main items: To normalize ties between the U.S. and North Korea, formally end the 1950-53 Korean War, repatriate U.S. war remains and — crucially — “to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.” But “work toward” is undefined. It’s also unclear whether the U.S. nuclear umbrella over South Korea is included. U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo says that Kim accepted the “final, fully verified denuclearization of North Korea.” North Korea points out the agreement referred to the entire peninsula and insists U.S. weapons must go at the same time, or it would be left vulnerable to attack. A meeting between Kim and Trump within the Demilitarized Zone in June 2019 led to an agreement to resume working-level talks that could iron out details of any deal.
2. What does the U.S. want?
To start, the U.S. wants North Korea to provide an inventory of weapons, facilities and fissile material it has produced. Kim’s regime calls that akin to asking for a “target list.” Further steps would include inspections, closing facilities and destroying weapons, and even surrendering nuclear material, according to proliferation experts. Past talks have faltered on the question of inspections and verification.
3. What does North Korea want?
Kim wants “corresponding measures,” or immediate rewards, for any steps his regime makes. In a televised New Year’s address, Kim threatened to take a “new path” if Washington didn’t relax crippling economic sanctions.
He signaled that any deal might require weakening the U.S.-South Korean alliance, urging Seoul not to resume military exercises with the American side. And he made clear that he believed the denuclearization pledge includes “strategic assets” such as America’s nuclear-capable planes and warships. But his language was less bellicose than past years, possibly reflecting his limited options.
4. What has North Korea offered?
In Hanoi, North Korea offered to shut down parts of its Yongbyon nuclear complex, which has served as the crown jewel of its atomic program, in return for sanctions relief. The aging facility about 60 miles north of Pyongyang was once the main source of its fissile material, turning out roughly enough plutonium each year for one atomic bomb. But North Korea has since turned to uranium enrichment for weapons. Still, Yongbyon remains its main atomic research facility and a complete closure would affect its nuclear program…….. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-01/keeping-up-with-plot-of-the-trump-kim-nuclear-show-quicktake
Trump says Iran ‘playing with fire’ after exceeding nuclear deal limit
WASHINGTON (Reuters) 2 July 19, – U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday Iran was playing with fire after Tehran said it had exceeded its limit for low-enriched uranium allowed under a 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.
Asked at a White House event if he had a message for Iran, Trump said he did not have a message, but Iran knew what it was doing and was “playing with fire.” Reporting by Jeff Mason; Writing by Mohammad Zargham; editing by Grant McCool .https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-iran-usa-fire/trump-says-iran-playing-with-fire-after-exceeding-nuclear-deal-limit-idUSKCN1TW3X3
Urgent need for international diplomacy: the world facing a renewed nuclear arms race
Without diplomacy, the world’s major powers risk a renewed nuclear arms race, The Hill, BY DR. VIATCHESLAV MOSHE KANTOR, 07/01/19 The reaction to the airing of the HBO series “Chernobyl,” dramatizing the most disastrous nuclear power plant accident in history, and to the news of President Trump’s aborted strike on Iran, amply shows the potential for horrific widescale nuclear catastrophe and the public’s desire to know the true extent of the risk.
Elsewhere, the eyes of the world are trained on the clock that is ticking down to the expiration of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty) in August 2019 and the potential end of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) in 2021.
These are troubling times. Despite the weekend’s high-profile foray into North Korean territory by President Trump – the first such visit by a sitting U.S. president – substantive progress between the United States and North Korea over the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is at a standstill. ……
The prospects of a multilateral treaty with China are looking slim. In the background, heightening tensions between the U.S., Europe and Russia risks undermining global stability. …..
This instability coincides with a crisis in diplomacy and a discernible lack of dialogue between the world’s major powers. This could not come at a worse time, when for the first time in nearly 50 years the demise of key international treaties means there will be no agreed limits on nuclear weapons. In the absence of substantive bilateral talks, there are no prospects of setting such limits in place. …….
Talks are apparently underway to secure the extension of the New START Treaty by a further five years, although this outcome is by no means certain.
Any future nuclear catastrophic event would not necessarily be the result of the actions of an established government intentionally deploying a nuclear weapon but could occur through a tragic accident like the disaster at Chernobyl…….
Organizations such as The International Luxembourg Forum are important mainstays of dialogue, promoting nuclear nonproliferation and working to reduce the risks of nuclear conflict. Nuclear experts have a key role to play in rebuilding a culture of trust and understanding in our political life. ……. https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/451125-without-diplomacy-the-worlds-major-powers-risk-a-renewed-nuclear
A call for Australia to get nuclear weapons
Nuclear arsenal must be on Australia’s agenda, argues defence expert, SMH, By Harriet Alexander, July 1, 2019 Australia can no longer rely on the United States to protect it in Asia and should consider developing its own nuclear weapons for the event that China becomes hostile, former defence strategist and security analyst Hugh White argues in a controversial new book.
Professor White argues in How to Defend Australia the assumption that the United States would protect the nation against any attack by a major power, which has underpinned Australian defence policy since the Cold War, is no longer true as China emerges as the dominant power in Asia.
For Australia to be self-reliant, it would need to boost defence spending from 2 per cent to 3.5 per cent of GDP – or $30 billion – and consider the “difficult and uncomfortable” question of developing its own nuclear capability, said Professor White, a professor in strategic studies at the Australian National University……..
Although most think tanks and strategic policy institutes in the United States continued to assert that dominance in Asia was a strategic priority, America’s global leadership has not figured as a priority for President Donald Trump nor for the contenders to the Democrat nomination, Professor White said. ……
Professor White said Australia should only consider defensive weapons such as submarine-launched ballistic missiles.
“We need to be extremely careful about how we talk about this and very conscious of the extraordinary cost to us of acquiring nuclear weapons,” Professor White said.
“It would make us less secure in some ways, that’s why in some ways I think it’s appalling.”
The last prime minister to canvass the development of nuclear weapons in Australia was Robert Menzies in the 1960s.
Professor White, a former deputy secretary for strategy and intelligence with the Department of Defence, was dismissed as alarmist when he first foreshadowed in 2010 the demise of American influence in Asia. But the Lowy Institute’s international security program director Sam Roggeveen said he had since been proved correct.
Mr Roggeveen said the regional complications of Australia developing nuclear weapons would be huge, with Indonesia probably having to follow suit, but the logic was inescapable.
“If we ever completely decouple from the [US] alliance then it’s hard to see how we could essentially maintain our independence against China’s coercion if we didn’t have nuclear weapons,” Mr Roggeveen said.
The bipartisan political consensus on Australian defence policy is opposed to the development of nuclear weapons, and the domestic shipbuilding program would leave Australia “hopelessly vulnerable” if it ever came to a fight with China, Mr Roggeveen said.
“According to White, we are locking in a defence force for a generation that will be totally unsuited to the world we are entering,” he wrote in a book review for The Interpreter. “That’s the scandal.”
The Minister for Defence, Linda Reynolds, said: “Australia stands by its Non-Proliferation Treaty pledge, as a non-nuclear weapon state, not to acquire or develop nuclear weapons.”
La Trobe Asia executive director Euan Graham said the US alliance was more resilient than Professor White described and China had shown no signs of aggression, but he agreed Australia should think about developing its nuclear capability.
“We’re talking about 15 to 20 years acquisition timeframe and the security environment that we’re facing will almost certainly be more severe then that it is now,” Dr Graham said.
“I think Australia has to be thinking about what will be be required to move to a nuclear weapon posture because that can’t happen overnight.” https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/nuclear-arsenal-must-be-on-australia-s-agenda-argues-defence-expert-20190701-p52306.html
No solution found to the nuclear issue, after European talks with Iran end
European Talks With Iran End, Leaving Nuclear Issue Unsettled, NYT, By David E. Sanger, June 28, 2019 WASHINGTON — A last-minute effort by European powers to persuade Iran not to breach limits on its stockpile of nuclear fuel ended inconclusively on Friday, with the Iranians saying that Britain, France and Germany had made only modest progress in developing a system to get around tight American sanctions on trade with Tehran.
As he left the talks in Vienna, Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian deputy foreign minister, said he expected Iran would go ahead with its plan to break the ceiling on how much low-enriched uranium it was allowed to possess. That breach could come as early as this weekend, potentially setting off another confrontation with the Trump administration, after a week of recriminations and military threats following the downing of an American drone and attacks on tankers.
“It is still not enough, and it is still not meeting Iran’s expectations,” Mr. Araghchi told reporters, according to news reports from Vienna. …….
Breaking the stockpile limit would not, by itself, give Iran enough fuel to produce a nuclear weapon. But the European participants in the 2015 agreement have been urging the Iranians not to dispense with the accord, for fear that the Trump administration might react with a military or cyberstrike against the Iranians…….
The United States’ special envoy for Iran, Brian H. Hook, said this week that the sanctions have already cost Iran more than $50 billion…….https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/28/us/politics/europe-iran-nuclear-deal.html
Iran doesn’t want to leave the nuclear agreement, calls on Europe for trade help
No Intention to Quit JCPOA Despite Nuclear Rollbacks Financial Tribune, 29 June 19, Europe should take further measures to ensure that the special trade channel set up to keep trade with Iran afloat satisfies Tehran’s demands, a senior diplomat said on Saturday, while stressing that the country does not intend to leave the nuclear agreement.
“I personally believe that INSTEX, in its current condition, isn’t enough. This mechanism without money is like a beautiful car without fuel,” Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, Majid Takht-Ravanchi, told the media in New York, IRNA reported.
In early May, a year after US President Donald Trump pulled out of the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, Tehran announced a decision to abandon some of its commitments under the deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
Iran would resume higher uranium enrichment in 60 days if the remaining signatories fail to make good on promises to shield its oil and banking sectors from the reimposed and tightened US sanctions.
On Friday, the European Union announced in a statement that the Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges or INSTEX, the financial mechanism set up by France, Britain and Germany to facilitate some trade with Iran, is now operational and the first transactions are being processed. ….. (subscribers only) https://financialtribune.com/articles/national/98697/no-intention-to-quit-jcpoa-despite-nuclear-rollbacks
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