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Investigation by IAEA finds no evidence that Russia is violating nuclear test ban

Nuclear watchdog chief: no evidence that Russia is violating test ban, US general said Moscow had ‘probably’ violated moratorium, Guardian,  Julian Borger  31 May 19
Lassina Zerbo contradicts claims of testing at remote island  
The head of the international watchdog that monitors signs of nuclear testing has said there is no evidence to support a US allegation that Russiahas conducted low-yield tests in violation of an international ban.Lassina Zerbo, the executive secretary of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organisation (CTBTO), said the agency had already investigated the claim made on Wednesday by the head of the US Defense Intelligence Agency, Lt Gen Robert Ashley, that Russia had “probably” violated the moratorium on tests of any yield.

In a public appearance in Washington, Ashley did not give details, and in response to follow-up questions, he said only that Russia had the “capability” to carry out such tests. The US has long voiced suspicions that Russia could be carrying out low-yield testing at a remote Arctic island base, Novaya Zemlya.

Zerbo said the agency had conducted a test of its global network of sensors on Wednesday to estimate what size of nuclear blast it would be able to detect at Novaya Zemlya.

The test found that its monitoring system would have picked up a blast of 3.1 on the Richter scale, which would be roughly equivalent, in that area, to a nuclear detonation of 100 tons – tiny in comparison to the yield of most nuclear warheads, which are normally measured in thousands of tons. The bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki were 15 and 20 kilotons, respectively………

It is unclear why Ashley chose to revive the allegation about Russian low-yield testing now, in the apparent absence of any new evidence. Some observers pointed to the fact that Ashley made the claim that testing had “probably” taken place only in his prepared remarks, but did not repeat the claim in a question and answer session, leading to speculation the claim could have been inserted into Ashley’s speech by the White House. The national security adviser, John Bolton, has a long record of hostility to arms control agreements.

On his watch, the US has pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) agreement with Russia. He is believed to be opposed to the extension of the New Start agreement, signed in 2010 with Russia, limiting deployed strategic nuclear warheads and their delivery systems on both sides. It is due to expire in 2021.

Sarah Bidgood, Eurasia programme director at the Centre for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, suggested the issue had been rehashed “in order to support the narrative that Russia is an unreliable partner in arms control, with whom verification does not work”. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/30/nuclear-watchdog-no-evidence-russia-violating-test-ban

June 1, 2019 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international, weapons and war | Leave a comment

IAEA Nuclear inspectors reported Iran continued adhering to its 2015 accord with world powers

Iran Sticking to Nuclear Deal as EU Vies to Prevent Its Collapse https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-31/iran-sticks-to-nuclear-limits-under-2015-deal-with-world-powers By Jonathan Tirone, June 1, 2019,

IAEA issues quarterly inspections report on Iran program

Tensions rising in region between Iran, U.S. and Gulf states

Nuclear inspectors reported Iran continued adhering to its 2015 accord with world powers, giving European nations room to pursue their troubled efforts to prevent a total collapse of a pact facing intensifying U.S. pressure.

International Atomic Energy Agency monitors said Iran’s inventories of enriched uranium and heavy water remained below the thresholds allowed under the 2015 agreement, according to a restricted report seen by Bloomberg News.

It’s the 15th consecutive quarterly report showing that Iran has observed its obligations, and comes amid growing concerns that the Trump administration’s campaign to counter Iranian influence in the Middle East could spill into war.

The IAEA conducted snap inspections “to all the sites and locations in Iran which it needed to visit,” read the 6-page IAEA report that was circulated Thursday among diplomats in Vienna. “Throughout the reporting period, Iran’s total enriched uranium stockpile has not exceeded” the maximum permitted 300 kilograms, it said.

Iran’s president signaled May 8 that stockpiles of nuclear material would soon exceed limits after the U.S. revoked waivers permitting it to be shipped abroad. That declaration was made on the one-year anniversary of the U.S. decision to unilaterally exit the nuclear accord and reimpose sanctions, including on vital oil exports. With its economy plunging into recession, Iran said it will violate even more sensitive provisions of the deal unless European signatories deliver the financial relief offered in return for moderating its nuclear program.

Tensions have since spiked further after the U.S. accelerated the deployment of a carrier strike group to the Gulf to counter unspecified Iranian threats, suggested without providing proof that Iran and its proxies were to blame for attacks on ships in the crucial waterway as well as a Saudi oil pipeline, and sent more troops to the region.

President Donald Trump has made confronting Iran a cornerstone of his foreign policy and is squeezing its economy to force it to roll back its ballistic missile program and support for groups such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which the U.S. deems a terrorist organization.

The White House is counting on Saudi Arabia and other Arab allies to form a united front to contain Iran, prompting a series of meetings involving regional leaders in the kingdom this week.

The stockpile of low-enriched uranium rose 7%, to 174 kilograms (384 pounds), the IAEA said. Its inventory of heavy-water was unchanged at 125 metric tons, less than the 130 metric tons permitted by the agreement.

Iran has been enriching uranium well below capacity and should be able to boost its rate of production, according to a senior diplomat with knowledge of Iran’s program. The country said May 22 it would ramp up the rate at which it produces the material by four times. That implies accumulating as much as 18 kilograms of new low-enriched uranium a month rather than some 4 to 4.5 kilograms previously, the person said.

The stored uranium is still well short of what would be needed to construct a bomb, were the material to be further enriched, and if Iran made the decision to pursue weapons. Iran had previously accumulated enough of the heavy metal to construct more than a dozen weapons before the agreement forced it to eliminate some 97% of its stockpile. Tehran says its nuclear program is solely for civilian energy and medical use.

Heavy water, so named because it contains extra hydrogen atoms, can moderate neutrons inside a nuclear reactor or act as a tracer in medical applications. Iran had been shipping excess inventory to Oman before the U.S. blocked that activity. IAEA inspectors continued to confirm Iran’s Arak reactor, for which the heavy water production was originally intended, remained disabled as agreed under the 2015 accord. Tehran says it could reconstitute that project in the third quarter without sanctions relief.

The IAEA report follows U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton’s statement on Wednesday in the United Arab Emirates that a violation of the deal would show Iranians haven’t “constrained their continuing desire to have nuclear weapons.” The Trump administration has threatened to sanction Europeans for trying to hold the atomic pact together via a non-dollar-denominated financial channel.

Critically, the IAEA report said Iran continued allowing access to sites under what its director general has called “the most robust verification system in existence anywhere.” Inspectors conducted a record number of surprise visits in Iran last year.

Iran has also stuck to the number of centrifuges — the supersonic spinning machines that separate uranium isotopes — allowed for enrichment. Iran is holding “technical discussions” about new generations of more powerful centrifuges that are undergoing testing.

June 1, 2019 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

Merkel urges world to do all ‘humanly possible’ on climate change

SBS, 1 June 19 In her commencement address delivered at Harvard University in the United States, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has urged the world to join together to combat climate change.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Thursday urged the world to do “everything humanly possible” to combat climate change and pledged to do her part.

“Climate change poses a threat to our planet’s natural resources,” Ms Merkel said in her commencement address delivered at Harvard University in the United States.

“It and the resulting crises are caused by humans.”,…….  https://www.sbs.com.au/news/merkel-urges-world-to-do-all-humanly-possible-on-climate-chang

June 1, 2019 Posted by Christina Macpherson | climate change, politics international | Leave a comment

USA Dept of Energy funding bankrupted French company AREVA – now resuscitated as Framatome

Lightbridge fuel development gains DOE funding, WNN 30 May 2019, Framatome has received a voucher through the US Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear (GAIN) programme to support development of Lightbridge Fuel in collaboration with Idaho National Laboratory (INL).

….. Enfission – a joint venture of Lightbridge Corporation and Framatome – was set up in January 2018 to commercialise nuclear fuel assemblies based on this technology.

The GAIN initiative was launched in November 2015 to provide a way to fast-track nuclear innovation,…..

This is Framatome’s third GAIN voucher and its first supporting the Lightbridge Fuel design.

Framatome said its collaboration with INL under this GAIN voucher will “leverage the laboratory’s experience in fuel and material development, as well as its performance knowledge, to facilitate Framatome’s understanding of phenomena unique to uranium-zirconium metallic fuel”.

…… For this work DOE will fund INL at a value of USD477,000…… https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Lightbridge-fuel-development-gains-DOE-funding

June 1, 2019 Posted by Christina Macpherson | business and costs, politics international, technology | Leave a comment

USA National Security Adviser John Bolton Accuses Iran of Seeking Nuclear Weapons, 

National Security Adviser John Bolton Accuses Iran of Seeking Nuclear Weapons,  TIME BY JON GAMBRELL / AP , MAY 29, 2019  (ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates) — President Donald Trump’s national security adviser warned Iran on Wednesday that any attacks in the Persian Gulf will draw a “very strong response” from the U.S., taking a hard-line approach with Tehran after his boss only two days earlier said America wasn’t “looking to hurt Iran at all.”

John Bolton’s comments are the latest amid heightened tensions between Washington and Tehran that have been playing out in the Middle East.

Bolton spoke to journalists in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, which only days earlier saw former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis warn there that “unilateralism will not work” in confronting the Islamic Republic……..

A longtime Iran hawk, Bolton blamed Tehran for the recent incidents, at one point saying it was “almost certainly” Iran that planted explosives on the four oil tankers off the UAE coast. He declined to offer any evidence for his claims.

…….Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has repeatedly criticized Bolton as a warmonger. Abbas Mousavi, a spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, said later Wednesday Bolton’s remarks were a “ridiculous accusation.”

Separately in Tehran, President Hassan Rouhani said that the “road is not closed” when it comes to talks with the U.S. — if America returns to the nuclear deal. However, the relatively moderate Rouhani faces increasing criticism from hard-liners and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei over the collapsing accord…….

Bolton also said the U.S. would boost American military installations and those of its allies in the region.  …..

Bolton’s trip to the UAE comes just days after Trump in Tokyo appeared to welcome negotiations with Iran. http://time.com/5597424/john-bolton-iran-nuclear-weapons/

May 30, 2019 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international, USA | Leave a comment

Young voters supported Europe’s Greens – big winners in European elections

Guardian 28th May 2019 Europe’s Greens, big winners in Sunday’s European elections, will use
their newfound leverage in a fractured parliament to push an agenda of urgent climate action, social justice and civil liberties, the movement’s leaders say. “This was a great outcome for us – but we now also have a great responsibility, because voters have given us their trust,” Bas Eickhout, a Dutch MEP and the Greens’ co-lead candidate for commission president, told the Guardian.
“Our voters, especially the younger generation, for many of whom we are now their first choice, are deeply
concerned about the climate crisis, and they are pro-European – but they feel the EU is not delivering. They want us to change the course of Europe.”https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/28/greens-eu-election-mandate-leverage-climate-policy

May 30, 2019 Posted by Christina Macpherson | climate change, EUROPE, politics international | Leave a comment

Torres Strait Islanders take their human rights case to UN against Australia, on climate change.

Torres Strait Islanders ask UN to hold Australia to account on climate ‘human rights abuses’ The Conversation, Kristen Lyons  Professor Environment and Development Sociology, The University of Queensland. May 27, 2019  Climate change threatens Australia in many different ways, and can devastate rural and urban communities alike. For Torres Strait Islanders, it’s a crisis that’s washing away their homes, infrastructure and even cemeteries.The failure to take action on this crisis has led a group of Torres Strait Islanders to lodge a climate change case with the United Nations Human Rights Committee against the Australian federal government.

It’s the first time the Australian government has been taken to the UN for their failure to take action on climate change. And its the first time people living on a low lying island have taken action against any government.

This case – and other parallel cases – demonstrate that climate change is “fundamentally a human rights issue”, with First Nations most vulnerable to the brunt of a changing climate.

The group of Torres Strait Islanders lodging this appeal argue that the Australian government has failed to take adequate action on climate change. They allege that the re-elected Coalition government has not only steered Australia off track in meeting globally agreed emissionsreductions, but has set us on course for climate catastrophe.

In doing so, Torres Strait Islanders argue that the government has failed to uphold human rights obligations and violated their rights to culture, family and life………

Torres Straight Islanders are on the frontlines

Some Torres Strait Islands are less than one metre above sea level and are already affected by climate change.

Rising tides have delivered devastating effects for local communities, including flooding homes, land and cultural sites, with dire flooding in 2018 breaking a sea wall built to protect local communities…….

Parallel threats across the Pacific

While the Torres Strait appeal to the UN is groundbreaking, the challenges facing Torres Strait Islanders are not unique.

Delegates at the Pacific Islands Forum in Fiji last week described climate change as the “single greatest threat” to the region, with sea level rise occurring up to four times the global average in some countries in the Pacific.

Climate change is already causing migration across parts of the Pacific, including relocation of families from the Carteret Islands to Bougainville with support from local grassroots organisation Tulele Peisa.

The Alliance of Small Island States, an intergovernmental organisation, has demanded that signatories to the Paris Agreement, including through the Green Climate Fund, recognise fundamental loss and damages communities are facing, and compensate those affected.

The growing wave of climate litigation

Across the Torres Strait, the Pacific, and other regions on the frontline of climate change, there are a diversity of responses in defence of land and seas. These are often grounded in local and Indigenous knowledge……https://theconversation.com/torres-strait-islanders-ask-un-to-hold-australia-to-account-on-climate-human-rights-abuses-117262?

 

May 27, 2019 Posted by Christina Macpherson | climate change, Legal, politics international | Leave a comment

At June G20 meeting, Japan to push for international conference on nuclear waste disposal (but no talk on stopping making radioactive trash)

Japan to push for int’l conference on nuclear waste disposal at June G-20 meet  https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20190525/p2a/00m/0in/006000c    TOKYO — The Japanese government announced May 24 that it plans to arrange an international meeting to consider how to dispose of highly radioactive nuclear waste.

Tokyo is set to get approval for the plan at the Group of 20 Ministerial Meeting on Energy Transitions and Global Environment for Sustainable Growth scheduled for mid-June in Karuizawa, Nagano Prefecture, and aims to launch the first roundtable this autumn.

Nuclear waste is a problem for all countries operating nuclear power plants, and the Japan-backed international summit on cooperating to dispose of it will be a world first. Participating nations are expected to aim for improved cooperation and formulation of an international “basic strategy” on dealing with radioactive waste.

High-level nuclear refuse is usually “vitrified” — mixed with melted glass and solidified — before being deposited in an underground storage facility. Japan’s own disposal plans call for holding the waste for 30 to 50 years to cool it before burying it in stable rock formations at least 300 meters below ground. Finland is already building a major underground disposal site, while its neighbor Sweden is conducting a safety evaluation at the location of its own planned facility. However, there is no precedent for actually operating such an installation, and Japan has not yet even begun the survey process to choose a site.

The Japanese government will thus use the June 15-16 G-20 environment and energy summit meeting to urge member nations to cooperate on realistic solutions. Specifically, Japan will press nations with advanced nuclear disposal technology including those in Europe to share their know-how, and also promote international collaboration among research facilities and staff exchanges. The international roundtable will put together a collection of proposals on a basic nuclear waste disposal cooperation strategy and how to explain the issue to the citizens of member nations.

(Japanese original by Hajime Nakatsugawa, Business News Department)

May 27, 2019 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Japan, politics international, wastes | Leave a comment

Trump may use ’emergency’ powers to bypass Congress, to sell missiles to Saudi Arabia

Trump prepared to bypass Congress on Saudi arms sale: senators
Democrats warn Trump may use ’emergency’ loophole to sell missiles to Saudi Arabia without congressional approval. 
Aljazeera, by William Roberts, 24 May 2019   Washington, DC – Democrats in the United StatesSenate have warned that the Trump administration is preparing to approve a major new arms sale to Saudi Arabia, using an “emergency” loophole to bypass Congress.

“I am expecting that the administration is going to notice a major arms sale through emergency powers,” Senator Chris Murphy, a Democrat, told Al Jazeera on Thursday, after he said an administration official gave the Senate Foreign Relations Committee “informal notice” of the forthcoming announcement.

US arms control law allows Congress to reject weapons sales to foreign countries but an exemption in the law allows the president to waive the need for congressional approval by declaring a national security emergency. …..

‘Terrible mistake’

Senator Bob Menendez, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee who has previously blocked missile sales to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, warned the administration would be making “a terrible mistake”.

In a statement, Menendez said he would “pursue all appropriate legislative and other means to nullify” the planned sale and he warned US weapons makers could be subject to criminal and civil penalties if they export weapons under “potentially invalid licenses”.

Calling Saudi Arabia “one of the worst human rights abusers in the world”, Menendez said the US’s reputation would suffer from “delivering deadly weapons to governments that clearly intend to misuse them”. …….

 https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/05/trump-prepared-bypass-congress-saudi-arms-sale-senators-190523203131884.html

May 25, 2019 Posted by Christina Macpherson | politics, politics international, Saudi Arabia, USA | Leave a comment

Trump violates US and International Law by threats to attack Iran

An Attack on Iran Would Violate US and International Law— 

Trump’s threats to use military force in Iran and the use of force itself are illegal under the United Nations Charter and the War Powers Resolution. Marjorie Cohn, Truthout   25 May 19,
President Donald Trump, National Security Advisor John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo rattle their sabers, there is no evidence that Iran poses a threat to the United States. It was Trump who threatened genocide, tweeting, “If Iran wants to fight, that will be the official end of Iran.” The Pentagon is now considering sending 10,000 additional troops to the Gulf region for “defensive” purposes and not in response to a new threat by Iran. Threats to use military force — like the use of force itself — violate U.S. and international law.Last week, Pompeo said U.S. intelligence had determined that Iranian-sponsored attacks on U.S. forces “were imminent.” The Trump administration asserted, “without evidence,” according to The New York Times, that new intelligence revealed Iran was sponsoring proxy groups to attack U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria.

The Pentagon announced its intention to deploy a Patriot antimissile battery to the Middle East. Three days later, Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan said the United States would send up to 120,000 troops to the region if Iran attacks U.S. forces or speeds up work on nuclear weapons.

But on May 14, Maj. Gen. Chris Ghika, a senior British military official and deputy commander of the U.S.-led coalition fighting ISIS, told reporters at the Pentagon that “there has been no increased threat from Iranian-backed forces in Iraq or Syria.”

The U.S. and Israel Plan Regime Change in IranThe Trump administration and its close ally Israel have long had their sights on regime change in Iran…….

The U.S., Not Iran, Is Acting AggressivelyThe New York Times cites military and intelligence officials in the U.S. and Europe who maintain that during the past year, “most aggressive moves have originated not in Tehran, but in Washington” where Bolton “has prodded President Trump into backing Iran into a corner.” Bolton “has repeatedly called for American military strikes against Tehran,” The New York Times reported.

Pompeo listed 12 demands Iran must meet to secure a new nuclear agreement. “Taken together, the demands would require a complete transformation by Iran’s government, and they hardened the perception that the administration is really seeking regime change,” according to The Associated Press.

The Pentagon has prepared plans for an air attack on Iran, veteran Middle East war correspondent Eric Margolis reported in July 2018. He wrote:

The Pentagon has planned a high-intensity air war against Iran that Israel and the Saudis might very well join. The plan calls for over 2,300 air strikes against Iranian strategic targets: airfields and naval bases, arms and petroleum, oil and lubricant depots, telecommunication nodes, radar, factories, military headquarters, ports, water works, airports, missile bases and units of the Revolutionary Guards.

Trump’s reckless withdrawal from the nuclear deal actually increases the chances Iran will develop a nuclear program. After complying with the JCPOA for a year after Trump pulled out of it, Iran is now threatening to resume high enrichment of uranium, which it had agreed to halt under the deal.Trump’s threats to use military force in Iran and the use of force itself are illegal under the United Nations Charter and the War Powers Resolution.

The U.S. Violates the United Nations CharterRatified treaties are “the supreme law of the land” under the Supremacy Clause of the Constitution. That means their provisions constitute U.S. law. The United Nations Charter, which the U.S. ratified in 1945, is therefore binding domestic law.

In Article 2, the Charter provides, “All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.”

The only exception to the Charter’s prohibition on the threat or use of force is when a country acts in self-defense or with the approval of the U.N. Security Council.

Countries may engage in individual or collective self-defense only in the face of an armed attack, under Article 51 of the Charter. Iran has not mounted an armed attack against the United States. Under the well-established Caroline case, there must exist “a necessity of self-defence, instant, overwhelming, leaving no choice of means, and no moment for deliberation.”

Pompeo’s claim that Iranian-sponsored attacks will “imminently” occur against U.S. forces remains unsubstantiated. Nothing in the Charter allows a U.N. member country to unilaterally decide to use military force unless it does so in self-defense.  If the United States were to attack and/or invade Iran, it would be acting unlawfully and not in self-defense.

Violation of the War Powers ResolutionA U.S. attack on Iran would also violate the War Powers Resolution. Congress enacted that law to reclaim its constitutional authority to send U.S. troops into combat after the disastrous Vietnam War. The resolution allows the president to introduce U.S. Armed Forces into hostilities or imminent hostilities in only three situations:

First, when Congress has declared war, which it has not done since World War II. Second, in the event of “a national emergency created by attack upon the United States, its territories or possessions, or its armed forces,” which has not occurred. Third, when Congress has enacted “specific statutory authorization,” such as an Authorization for the Use of Military Force (AUMF). There is no AUMF or other congressional statute authorizing the use of military force in Iran.

After the September 11 attacks, Congress passed an AUMF, authorizing the president “to use all necessary and appropriate force against those nations, organizations, or persons he determines planned, authorized, committed, or aided the terrorist attacks that occurred on September 11, 2001, or harbored such organizations or persons.”

Although the 2001 AUMF was tied to the 9/11 attacks, it has been misused to justify multiple military operations in several countries, many of them unrelated to 9/11………   https://truthout.org/articles/an-attack-on-iran-would-violate-us-and-international-law/

May 25, 2019 Posted by Christina Macpherson | legal, politics international, USA | Leave a comment

North Korea warns that nuclear talks “will never be resumed” if USA continues ‘hostile acts’

North Korea vows ‘fiercer’ response, end to nuclear talks if U.S. continues ‘hostile acts’, Japan Times, BY JESSE JOHNSON, STAFF WRITER, MAY 24, 2019

North Korea said Friday that nuclear talks with the United States “will never be resumed” unless Washington halts what Pyongyang said were “hostile acts” and demands of “unilateral disarmament,” warning of a “fiercer” response if this continues.

In a statement carried by the North’s official Korean Central News Agency, an unidentified Foreign Ministry spokesman delivered Pyongyang’s latest warning to the U.S. in the wake of President Donald Trump’s failed summit with leader Kim Jong Un in Hanoi in February.

“We hereby make it clear once again that the United States would not be able to move us even an inch with the device it is now weighing in its mind, and the further its mistrust and hostile acts towards the DPRK grow, the fiercer our reaction will be,” the spokesman said, using the acronym for the North’s formal name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

“Unless the United States puts aside the current method of calculation and comes forward with a new method of calculation, the DPRK-U.S. dialogue will never be resumed and by extension, the prospect for resolving the nuclear issue will be much gloomy,” the spokesman said.

The Hanoi talks, the second summit between Trump and Kim, collapsed without a deal due to large differences over the scope of North Korea’s denuclearization and potential sanctions relief by the U.S. Reuters reported in March that Trump had passed Kim a note bluntly calling for North Korea to surrender all its nuclear weapons and fuel, a demand he could not abide by…….. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/05/24/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific/north-korea-vows-fiercer-response-end-nuclear-talks-u-s-continues-hostile-acts/#.XOhfUxYzbGg

May 25, 2019 Posted by Christina Macpherson | North Korea, politics international | Leave a comment

Washington now a great place for warmongers

Donald Trump needs to reclaim control over his policy toward Iran.  National Interest, by Paul R. Pillar  22 May 19, The current crisis atmosphere in U.S.-Iranian relations, in which the risk of open warfare appears greater than it has been in years, is solely, unequivocally due to the policies and actions of the Trump administration. To point this out does not mean that actions of the Iranian regime have not come to be part of the crisis atmosphere as well. It instead means that such an atmosphere would never have existed in the first place if the administration had not turned its obsession with Iran into the relentless campaign of stoking hostility and tension that has become one of the single most prominent threads of the administration’s foreign policy.Without that campaign, and without the administration’s assault on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—the agreement that restricts Iran’s nuclear program—Iran would continue to comply with its obligations under the JCPOA and all possible paths to an Iranian nuclear weapon would remain closed.

The channels of communication established during negotiation of the JCPOA would continue to be available to address other issues and to defuse any incidents that threatened to escalate into war (as was done during the previous U.S. administration). Whatever Iran has been doing for years in the Middle East, such as assisting Iraq in defeating the Islamic State and assisting its longtime ally in Syria, it would continue to do. In short, there would be no new threat and no crisis.

Some of the current discourse about Iran nonetheless makes it sound not only as if there is something new and threatening but that the Iranian regime is the initiator of the threat. At least seven reasons account for this misconception.

One is the demonization of Iran that is rooted in genuinely nefarious things the Iranian regime did in the past and dates back to when Ted Koppel was talking to Americans every weeknight about U.S. diplomats held hostage in Tehran. Over the years other factors have contributed to the demonization, including domestic American political pressures connected to certain regional rivals of Iran that want to keep it weak and isolated. The result is lasting and pervasive suspicion that colors American perceptions of everything involving Iran, regardless of the facts of whatever is the issue at hand………. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/paul-pillar/washington-has-become-warmongers-paradise-58832

May 23, 2019 Posted by Christina Macpherson | politics international, USA, weapons and war | 1 Comment

The US demanded the closure of five atomic facilities during the Hanoi summit, but Kim offered only two

Trump clarifies nuclear gulf between US, North Korea  The US demanded the closure of five atomic facilities during the Hanoi summit, but Kim offered only two, Asia Times, By ANDREW SALMON 22 May 19, President Donald Trump, speaking to US broadcaster Fox News on Sunday evening, said Washington had sought, during a February summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, to shutter five nuclear sites, but Pyongyang was only willing to close two.

Trump’s comments were among the clearest indications yet on why that summit, held in Hanoi, Vietnam, broke up without any agreement being reached. The future of further talks – and indeed, the future of North Korea’s promised denuclearization process – have been uncertain ever since. ………

What constitutes Yongbyon?

North Korea’s nuclear sites are necessarily shrouded in mystery. The secretive state is known to have two programs producing weapons-grade fissile materials – a processed plutonium-based program and a highly enriched uranium (HEU) based pr has been expanded since six-party denuclearization talks foundered in 2008.

There are two complicating factors. Firstly, the second program may be dispersed over multiple sites, and secondly, it is not entirely clear to researchers what or where the limits of Yongbyon are, which has been expanded since six-party denuclearization talks foundered in 2008.

The latter point suggests that it is not clear whether Kim, in his reported offer to dismantle Yongbyon, was referring to the facility itself, or to an extended complex of facilities in the Yongbyon area – which could, feasibly, explain the two sites Trump mentioned. ……

given Trump’s lack of detail and the speculation required to analyze it, one expert dismissed his televised comments entirely.

“I have no opinion as to those numbers, it is irrelevant,” Chun In-bum, a retired South Korean general, told Asia Times. “It is very difficult to know how many really credible nuclear facilities there are – I would not even venture to try to guess.”  https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/05/article/trump-clarifies-nuclear-gulf-between-us-north-korea/

May 23, 2019 Posted by Christina Macpherson | North Korea, politics international, USA | Leave a comment

Trump and Kim “in love”, but have few options now that discussions have collapsed

Trump and Kim’s Cozy Relationship Makes Nuclear Talks Tougher The leaders, who “fell in love” during their first summit, have few options now that discussions have collapsed. Bloomberg, By Youkyung Lee, 20 May19,Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un often explain their surprisingly warm relationship in the language of romance. They “ fell in love” during the first-ever summit between a U.S. president and a North Korean leader in Singapore last year, Trump said. A top North Korean diplomat similarly describes the chemistry between the two leaders as “mysteriously wonderful.”

Since the breakup of the most recent round of talks in Hanoi in February, however, Kim has registered his displeasure not as a lover scorned, but as a dictator at the helm of an increasingly advanced nuclear arsenal. Over one week in May, he personally oversaw the trials of at least two short-range ballistic missiles capable of striking all of South Korea, where some 28,500 U.S. troops are based.

The back-to-back launches broke an almost 17-month pause in major weapons testing and likely violated United Nations resolutions banning North Korea from firing ballistic missiles—but crucially, it didn’t violate Kim’s pledge to Trump to halt testing of long-range missiles that could strike the continental U.S. The act was both aggressive and subtle, showing the U.S. that North Korea was willing to play ball but refused to be played.

In securing the unprecedented meeting with Trump and entering direct negotiations with the U.S. president, Kim left himself few options if the conversations were to go poorly. The U.S. has been in a similar position since Trump tweeted just after the Singapore meeting that North Korea was “no longer a nuclear threat.” Both leaders must now walk a delicate line to save face and avoid what neither of them wants: nuclear war.

Kim’s primary goal going into the Hanoi summit was considerably more mundane. He was seeking to make North Korea a normal country in the eyes of the world and to remove sanctions that are crushing the economy and stoking popular unrest. According to the UN, its 2018 harvest was the worst in a decade, leaving 40 percent of the population in need of food assistance.

…….. Current South Korean President Moon Jae-in is caught between the two leaders. Seoul is within the range of both missiles fired in early May, and Moon doesn’t want to disrupt his own fragile relationship with Kim by appearing to side with Trump. In his speech, Kim urged Moon to stop being an “officious mediator,” using a Korean slang term—ojirap—that’s rarely used by public figures in official settings and almost never by a younger person referring to an elder. The South Korean government “must defend the interest of the nation,” Kim said.

Moon helped broker the first summit between Trump and Kim, in a pair of dramatic meetings with the North Korean leader on the Koreas’ militarized border, and is now pushing for a third by appealing to common human decency.  ……

The second missile test, on May 9, occurred while Trump’s top nuclear envoy, Stephen Biegun, was in Seoul to meet with South Korean officials. There’s been no indication that the U.S. is willing to accept what many North Korea watchers agree is Kim’s true goal: admission into the exclusive club of accepted nuclear-armed states. ………. The more time passes, the more sophisticated Kim’s arsenal becomes, shrinking Trump’s margin of error in responding to threats and increasing the danger of miscalculation. There’s also the risk that Trump and Kim learn they’re not as close as they thought they were. …. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-20/trump-and-kim-got-too-serious-too-fast-in-nuclear-discussions

May 21, 2019 Posted by Christina Macpherson | North Korea, politics international, USA | 1 Comment

Danger of war – Israel vs Russia – could lead to nuclear war

Israel vs. Russia: The Middle East War That Could Become a Nuclear Train Wreck
Yes, this could happen. 
The National Interest, by Michael Peck  20 May 19, As always with the Arab-Israeli (or Iranian-Israeli) conflict, the real danger isn’t the regional conflict, but how it might escalate. In the 1973 war, the Soviets threatened to send troops to Egypt unless Israel agreed to a cease-fire. The United States responded by going on nuclear alert.


Could Israeli air strikes in Syria trigger war between Israel and Russia?

Israel remains determined to continue pounding Iranian forces in Syria in a bid to keep Tehran’s forces away from Israel’s northern border. At the same time, Russia has thousands of troops in Syria that could be caught in the crossfire—or even become belligerents if Moscow tires of its Syrian ally being pummeled.

And if Israel and Russia come to blows, would Israel’s big brother—the United States—feel compelled to intervene?

Not that Jerusalem or Moscow are eager for such a fight. “Neither of us desire a military confrontation,” a senior Israel Defense Forces (IDF) official told me during a recent interview in Jerusalem. “It would be detrimental to both sides.”

Yet Israel’s policy boils down to this: it will do whatever it sees as necessary to eject Iranian forces from Syria. And if Russia doesn’t like it, then that’s just the price of ensuring that Syria doesn’t become another Iranian rocket base on Israel’s border…….

Just how easily Israeli military operations can trigger an incident became evident during a September 2018 strike on ammunition depots in western Syria. Anti-aircraft missiles launched by Syrian gunners accidentally shot down a Russian Il-20 surveillance aircraft, killing fifteen people. Israel denies Russian accusations that it deliberately used the Russian plane as cover, or failed to give Moscow sufficient warning of the raid. Yet Russia still blamed Israel for the mishap and retaliated by supplying advanced S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to Syria. ……

Can Israel target Iran in Syria without triggering a clash with Russia?

There are deconfliction mechanisms in place, including a hotline between the Israeli and Russian militaries. “We are very strict about informing the Russians about our activities and that their operational picture is up to date,” said the IDF official. Yet those procedures were not sufficient to avoid a downing of a Russian plane………
As always with the Arab-Israeli (or Iranian-Israeli) conflict, the real danger isn’t the regional conflict, but how it might escalate. In the 1973 war, the Soviets threatened to send troops to Egypt unless Israel agreed to a cease-fire. The United States responded by going on nuclear alert.

Were the Israelis and Russians to come to blows, or if Moscow were to seriously threaten military force against Israel, could the United States risk a grave loss of prestige by not intervening to back its longtime ally? Could Russia—whose Syrian intervention is a proud symbol of its reborn military muscle and great power status—not retaliate for another downed Russian plane or a dead Russian soldier?

Which leads to the ultimate question: could tensions between Israel and Russia lead to a clash between American and Russian troops?

In the end, somebody will have to back down. But Iran isn’t about to give up its outpost on Israel’s border, and Russia probably can’t force them to. Then there is Israel, which is grimly determined to stop Iran. …… https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/israel-vs-russia-middle-east-war-could-become-nuclear-train-wreck-58482

May 21, 2019 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Israel, politics international, weapons and war | 2 Comments

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