Despite Trump, the shift to a low-carbon economy already has its own momentum
Donald Trump presidency a ‘disaster for the planet’, warn climate scientists, Guardian, Oliver Milman, 13 Nov 16 “………The shift to a low-carbon economy already has its own momentum, however, with the cost of solar and wind power tumbling in recent years. Nearly 100 coal power plants were retired in 2015, with renewables accounting for two-thirds of all new electricity generation.
New York and California both have their own ambitious emission reduction plans, conservative states such as Iowa are embracing wind energy, and innovations from companies such as Tesla, in solar panels and battery storage, are being snapped up by homeowners.
Trumpian interference can only do so much to slow this trend, although plodding progress isn’t enough to stave off climate catastrophe. The UN has warned that global emissions must peak by 2020 and then be sharply reduced in order to avoid the worst. This shrinking window risks being clouded entirely if the US is to choke itself, and the rest of the world, on its fumes.
Stunned environment groups, faced with triumphant climate denialism in all branches of government, are trying to muster defiance. “This could be devastating for our climate and our future,” admitted Michael Brune, executive director of the Sierra Club. “But Trump must choose wisely or we guarantee him the hardest fight of his political life. We won’t be in a defensive crouch for the next four years, licking our wounds.
“If he tries to go backwards on climate change he’ll run headlong into an organized mass of people who will fight him in the courts, in Congress and on the streets.”
Others are more conciliatory, with former vice president Al Gore proffering an olive branch along with an enormous dollop of optimism. “Last night President-elect Trump said he wanted to be a president for all Americans,” Gore said on Wednesday. “In that spirit, I hope that he will work with the overwhelming majority of us who believe that the climate crisis is the greatest threat we face as a nation.”
Whether or not Trump becomes a belated convert to the reality of climate change, the physics of global warming remain unchanged.
2016 will be the warmest year on record, beating a mark set only last year. These extremes, where India experiences a temperature of 51C (123F) and the Arctic is robbed of almost all of its winter snowfall, are set to become the norm within a decade. American citizens, from Alaska to Louisiana, are already being uprooted due to the rising seas, a situation that will become commonplace.
Trump knows enough of the gargantuan shifts underway to build a seawall for his golf course in County Clare, Ireland. His Mar-a-Lago club in Florida may have to be next. Whether he extends his concern from beyond his own business interests to the rest of the world remains to be seen. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/nov/11/trump-presidency-a-disaster-for-the-planet-climate-change
Keep it in the ground: What President Trump means for climate change
Donald Trump’s win could be catastrophic for the world’s climate, as well as international diplomacy, as American leadership is transformed This November is likely to have profound implications for climate change – but not in the way that was anticipated just a week ago. The Paris climate deal came into force on 4 November but Tuesday’s election of Donald Trump as US president casts an ominous shadow over the agreement and the chances of avoiding dangerous global warming.
Trump is a highly erratic figure, so predicting his actions can be problematic. But we do know that he wants to withdraw the US from the Paris accord, which aims to keep the global temperature increase below a 2C threshold, that he believes climate change to be a “hoax” and that Barack Obama’s warning that global warming is a threat on a par with terrorism was “one of the dumbest statements I’ve ever heard in politics.”
Obama’s climate legacy, and the tools he used to force down emissions, are set to be torn apart by Trump once he enters the White House. Contentious oil pipelines such as Keystone and Dakota Access will likely be approved. Clean energy funding will be slashed. The world’s second largest greenhouse gas emitter will look to prop up coal, rather than renewables, to power its future. Read my report today for the full story.
This could prove catastrophic for the world’s climate, as well as international diplomacy, as American leadership is transformed into an excuse to slack off in cutting emissions. Already, the 2C threshold looks in severe peril. 8 November could be the day when tens of millions of people were condemned to an unlivable environment. A Trump u-turn on this matter, at least, would be welcomed by those most at risk.
Oliver Milman, US environment correspondent
Drought is destabilising Africa
HotSpots H2O: Africa’s Water Challenges http://www.circleofblue.org/2016/world/hotspots-h2o-africas-water-challenges/ Global HotSpots H2O, 13 Nov 16
From the Syrian conflict, to protests in Zimbabwe, Tunisia and India, to a deep drought destabilizing South Africa, water is playing a significant role in global civil unrest.
HotSpots H2O from Circle of Blue’s award-winning team of journalists examines regions, populations, and countries that are most at risk from water-related unrest and conflict. It reveals the challenges individuals confront — and the solutions they discover — as they strive to build resilient communities.
Africa’s Water Challenges The worst drought in 35 years continues to grip southern Africa, even as the El Nino season that caused it comes to an end. The drought, which began in 2015, has left 21.3 million people in need of food assistance,according the American aid agency USAID. Officials say the food crisis will continue to get worse.
“The crisis has yet to peak,” United Nation’s Special Envoy Macharia Kamau told journalists in Mozambique after a four day tour of that nation where he witnessed the desperation of the hungry. “For many children, women and the elderly, the next few months will be about looking at survival straight in the face,” he continued.
The fifteen-nation Southern African Development Community (SADC) has been scrabbling to find aid for the food crisis and has recently launched a call for $US 2.9 billion in food aid from the international community. The call for assistance comes as the wet season returns to southern Africa with the onset of La Nina.
Despite the upcoming rains, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland, and Zimbabwe have all declared a state of emergency, due to the upcoming “lean season.” From January to March famers will wait for their crops to grow before they can begin to harvest.
The severity of the effects of the drought in the region stem in part from the fragile nature of the water systems and the economic structures prevalent in the region, according to visiting Oxford Professor David Grey.
“Unsustainable livelihoods as a consequence of the hydrological complexity and variability are fairly widespread across the continent,” Grey told Circle of Blue. “And the consequences of this is that as populations grow, people find it harder and harder to feed themselves.”
Water Security: Freedom from Intolerable Water-Related Risks | PODCAST |
Large-scale drought in southern Africa. Floods in North Korea and Haiti. Rumblings of water-related conflicts in Pakistan and India. In Circle of Blue’s latest HotSpots H2O podcast, Dr. David Grey, a visiting professor of Water Policy from Oxford University, argues that water security is closely linked to migration, climate change risk, and economic development. In an interview with J. Carl Ganter, Circle of Blue’s director, Dr. Grey also offers solutions to alleviating the world’s water-related risks.
Dr. Grey also is a former member of the World Economic Forum Global Agenda Council on Water Security. J. Carl Ganter reports from Washington D.C. at the International Dialogue on the Global Commons.
Madagascar in Focus: Food Shortages Affects 1.4 Million People
“These are people living on the very brink – many have nothing but wild fruits to eat,” United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) regional Director Chris Nikoi told reporters in late October.
The drought forced many subsistence farmers to begin eating their own seed stocks and selling their land to get by, meaning they will have nothing to plant and nowhere to plant it when the rain returns. Next year, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, at least 840,000 people risk severe malnutrition, and nearly 1.4 million will be food insecure.
Children have been the hardest hit. According to UNICEF, some 10,500 kids have been treated for a hunger-related illness known as severe acute malnutrition or SAM since January of this year. Children suffering from SAM typically have a mortality rate of around 30 to 50 percent.
The return of La Nina this winter may bring some relief. But strong rain could cause flash flooding, washing away fragile topsoil and newly planted crops.
Climate scientists warn that Trump’s election is a disaster for the planet
Donald Trump presidency a ‘disaster for the planet’, warn climate scientists
Leading scientists say the climate denier’s victory could mean ‘game over for the climate’ and any hope of warding off dangerous global warming, Guardian, Oliver Milman, 13 Nov 16 The ripples from a new American president are far-reaching, but never before has the arrival of a White House administration placed the livability of Earth at stake. Beyond his bluster and crude taunts, Donald Trump’s climate denialism could prove to be the lasting imprint of his unexpected presidency.
“A Trump presidency might be game over for the climate,” said Michael Mann, a prominent climate researcher. “It might make it impossible to stabilize planetary warming below dangerous levels.”
Kevin Trenberth, senior scientist at the US National Center for Atmospheric Research, added: “This is an unmitigated disaster for the planet.”
Trump has vowed to sweep away the climate framework painstakingly built over Barack Obama’s two terms. At risk is the Paris climate accord, which only came into force last week, and Obama’s linchpin emissions reduction policy, the Clean Power Plan.
At a pivotal moment when the planet’s nations have belatedly banded together to confront an existential threat, a political novice who calls global warming a “bullshit” Chinese-invented hoax is taking the helm at the world’s foremost superpower.
“Millions of Americans voted for a coal-loving climate denier willing to condemn people around the globe to poverty, famine and death from climate change,” said Benjamin Schreiber, climate director at Friends of the Earth US. “It seems undeniable that the United States will become a rogue state on climate change.”
US conservatives are already rubbing their hands in glee at the prospect of a bonfire of regulation. Trump wants the US to exit the Paris deal, which commits nations to keeping the global temperature rise below a 2C threshold, potentially setting off a cataclysmic domino effect where other countries also drop out or ease off efforts to decarbonize. The 2C limit, which was already a stern challenge, now appears perilous.
The Clean Power Plan, the main tool to cut American emissions, is also targeted for elimination, along with billions of dollars in clean energy funding. Republicans will also turn off the tap of aid flowing to developing nations already struggling with climate change-driven sea level rise, heatwaves and drought.
Bitterly contested fossil fuel projects such as the Keystone development and the Dakota Access pipeline, which has caused unprecedented uproar among native American tribes, would likely be waved through, with Trump promising to “lift the Obama-Clinton roadblocks to allow these vital energy infrastructure projects to go ahead”.
Environmentalists are already aghast at Trump’s presidential preparations. He has appointed Myron Ebell, director at a conservative thinktank, to oversee transition plans for the Environmental Protection Agency, which Trump has casually earmarked for abolition. Ebell has said global warming is “nothing to worry about” and that the Clean Power Plan is “illegal”.
Shortlists drawn up for key Trump administration posts have also raised alarm. Oil billionaire Harold Hamm is being touted as energy secretary, while former vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin could make a stunning comeback as interior secretary, putting her in charge of US public lands, including treasures such as Yellowstone and Yosemite national parks. Palin is an enthusiastic proponent of oil and gas drilling, describing the fossil fuels as “things that God has dumped on this part of the Earth for mankind’s use”.
Republicans have already used Congressional committees to hound climate scientists and green groups and this badgering may escalate once climate denial is official White House doctrine. It’s understood that scientists at Nasa are already bracing themselves for cuts to climate research programs.
Predicting Trump’s plans, however, largely relies upon reading the runes from his discursive policy speeches, which regularly dissolved into vituperative diatribes while on the campaign trail.
At the heart of his energy and climate thinking is an “America first” policy where “draconian climate rules” are repealed and the US escalates its production of coal, oil and natural gas. In May, Trump sported a coal miner’s helmet at a rally in West Virginia, a state with a long history of mining, to underscore his message that the “war on coal” is over and that jobs will flow back to the stricken industry.
“Under my administration,” Trump said, “we’ll accomplish complete American energy independence. Complete. Imagine a world in which our foes, and the oil cartels, can no longer use energy as a weapon. It will happen. We’re going to win.”
These bromides to American industrial strength helped propel Trump to the White House but aren’t tethered to reality. US coal production slumped 10% last year, with mining jobs shrinking by 12%. Over the same 12-month period, the US oil industry lost $67bn. These woes have been caused by market forces, rather than onerous regulation, and even Trump’s authoritarianism doesn’t extend far enough to change that.
“As president, Donald Trump will pretend climate change does not exist,” said Prof Tom Lyon of the University of Michigan’s business school. “This is an increasingly untenable position, even for committed climate skeptics.
“His energy policy will encourage investment in high-carbon energy sources that will look foolish in retrospect. And he will anger much of the rest of the world by reneging on policies designed to address global challenges.”
US greenhouse gas emissions have started to taper off in recent years but a Trump presidency would see a resurgence, with an analysis by Lux Research finding that carbon dioxide output would be 16% higherthan the current trajectory should the real estate magnate complete a second term.
This would give the world a hefty shove towards climate disaster and fatally wound the US’s reputation as a global leader. Should other major emitters such as China, India and the European Union fail to make compensatory emissions cuts the planet will likely spiral into runaway climate change where tens of millions of people are displaced by rising seas, food insecurity and conflict, leading to an unprecedented international humanitarian disaster.
Major US cities including New York, Miami and Boston would face inundation. California, already suffering its worst dry spell in 1,200 years, may stage ‘megadroughts’ that last 20 or even 30 years. The Pentagon has warned climate change poses a “threat multiplier” to US national security, to hoots of derision from Republicans……… https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/nov/11/trump-presidency-a-disaster-for-the-planet-climate-change
Marrakech talks pressing on with climate action, despite Mr Trump
The Paris Agreement is now in force after a speedy ratification, the US share of global emissions has declined, and renewable energy is now much cheaper. Many US states, cities and businesses will continue to work towards reducing emissions, and many Republican politicians have let go of their aversion to renewable energy in response to public and business pressure.
In short, much of America and the rest of the world will continue to build momentum under the Paris Agreement, despite the changing of the guard in Washington DC.
Meanwhile, after the initial pause to digest the shock of Trump’s victory, the negotiators at Marrakech have got back down to their business, which is to fill in the implementation details of the Paris Agreement.
The view from Marrakech: climate talks are battling through a Trump tsunami, https://theconversation.com/the-view-from-marrakech-climate-talks-are-battling-through-a-trump-tsunami-68597 The Conversation, November 11, 2016 Stunned. Shocked. Speechless. Devastated. Political tsunami. These were the key words rising to the surface of the babble of conversations that took place in the corridors of the climate negotiations in Marrakech on Wednesday 9 November – the day Donald Trump won the US presidency. Continue reading
Under President Trump there’ll be a fossil fuel fan administration
Meet the Fossil Fuel Superfans Tipped to Run Energy and Climate Under Trump Truthout, Friday, 11 November 2016 By Zachary Davies Boren, Joe Sandler Clarke and Emma Howard, Energydesk | Report “…….Trump, an avowed climate change denier and fossil fuel champion, looks set to stack his key energy and environment positions with oil and gas men and free market zealots.
Using documents leaked to Buzzfeed, sources at Politico and beyond, we’ve done a rundown of who’s in line for a top energy and climate job in the US government.
Harold Hamm (Possible Energy Secretary)
Tipped for energy secretary in a Trump administration, oil and gas billionaire Hamm has been showered with praise by the new President-elect, who said with classic hyperbole that Hamm understands energy “better than anybody else”.
As chief exec of Oklahoma-based fracking firm Continental Resources, Hamm would represent the first cabinet appointee directly plucked from the fossil fuel industry since 1977.
For years Trump has been dismissive of man-made climate change, but the particular brand of anti-regulation and anti-renewables stance he deployed in the election was vintage Hamm, who was often referred to as Trump’s ‘energy adviser.’
Hamm, whose firm runs the bulk of the Bakken shale formation in North Dakota, has already called for Trump to scrap “overreaching regulations” in order to ramp up oil production — despite record-breaking output under Obama.
During the campaign, Hamm said Trump didn’t actually “understand” oil issues after the then-candidate suggested local communities should have a say in whether there’s fracking in their area.
Myron Ebell (possible EPA)
Myron Ebell is a highly active climate change denier.
Reports emerged in September that Trump would appoint him to lead the transition at the Environmental Protection Agency.
Ebell is currently head of libertarian think-tank the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI), which says of itself: “The CEI’s largest program takes on all the hard energy and climate issues.
“CEI questions global warming alarmism, makes the case for access to affordable energy, and opposes energy-rationing policies, including the Kyoto Protocol, cap-and-trade legislation, and EPA regulation of greenhouse gas emissions. CEI also opposes all government mandates and subsidies for conventional and alternative energy technologies.”
The CEI also leads SafeChemicalPolicy.org, a coalition that lobbies against regulation of the chemicals industry. It promotes the “life enhancing value of chemicals” — even those that scientists claim “significantly increase our risks of cancer, developmental defects, and even obesity”.
If that wasn’t enough, Ebell also runs the Cooler Heads Coalition, a grassroots group that works to “dispel the myths of global warming.” It names the neoconservative American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) and the Heartland Institute among its members.
The Heartland Institute has used the words of mass murderers to justify its opposition to climate action and attempted to block climate change teaching in schools.
ALEC, which has repeatedly blocked legislation to tackle climate change, has become so divisive that even oil giants Shell and BP have quit the group.
Sarah Palin (Possible Secretary of Interior) “I would love to have the strength of Sarah Palin in my administration.” That’s what Trump said back in September 2015.
The former Vice Presidential candidate and Alaska Governor is on the shortlist for the next Secretary of the Interior, running the government department responsible for the management of federal land and, crucially, the country’s natural resources.
On announcing her support for the then-candidate Trump, Palin told CNN she would love to run the Department of Energy, seemingly without knowing what the department actually did.
“Energy is my baby,” she said. “Oil, gas, minerals, those things God has dumped on this part of the earth for mankind’s use instead of us relying on unfriendly foreign nations for us to import their resources. If I were head of that, I’d get rid of it.”
The Interior Department has broad ranging responsibilities, from managing America’s national parks to dealing with the land rights of Native Americans, to making decisions about fracking and offshore drilling
The thought of the woman responsible for the “drill baby drill” campaign overseeing who can drill off the coast of Alaska certainly is something.
Forrest Lucas (Possible Secretary of Interior) One of Palin’s rivals for the Interior job is oil industry executive Forrest Lucas.
Lucas, 74, is the co-founder of Lucas Oil and is wealthy enough to have given new Vice President Mike Pence $50,000 while he was running to be Indiana’s governor and spend more than $100million putting his name on an American Football stadium 10 years ago. The Indianapolis Colts now play their home games at the Lucas Oil Stadium.
The oil and gas industry has been fighting furiously against the Obama administration for eight years, on everything from Arctic drilling to the Keystone XL pipeline, so having one of their own heading up the department of interior would be a boon.
As Khalid Pitts, from the Sierra Club, told Politico it would be “open season” on America’s environment if someone like Lucas was given a job.
That said, current secretary Sally Jewell is a former Mobil Oil executive, but she is also known for her conservation work.
Mike McKenna (Energy Department)
Energy lobbyist Mike McKenna is in line to to lead the transition at the Energy Department.
McKenna is the President – and according what is presumably his LinkedIn page also the “Czar” — at lobby firm MWR Strategies, while also working as a specialist for the energy department in the past.
According to the Washington Post, he has lobbied on behalf of the firm owned by the billionaire Koch Brothers, which was listed by Forbes as one of the largest private companies in the US. They are a major funder of climate sceptic think-tanks and scientists as well as efforts to water down environmental regulation at the EU level.
Also among the companies to have been represented by McKenna, named by the Washington Post, are multinational Dow Chemical and energy firm EDF Suez, which owns fracking licences in the UK. http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/38348-meet-the-fossil-fuel-superfans-tipped-to-run-energy-and-climate-under-trump
Trump will put all USA climate action into Limbo
Trump said he will rescind any regulations that unduly burden energy development, including the Clean Power Plan, which, if it survives legal challenges, was to have been the cornerstone of Obama’s climate action legacy and the main policy for realizing the nation’s Paris goals. He also said he would abolish the Waters of the U.S. rule, which the fracking industry in North Dakota has opposed. Trump said he would urge TransCanada to renew its permit application for the Keystone XL pipeline. Within his first 100 days, Trump said he would lift moratoriums on fossil fuel production in federal areas, which could clear the way to new coal leasing in the West as well as coastal oil drilling, not only in the Arctic but also the Atlantic and potentially, the Pacific………
For his energy and environmental policy team, Trump has selected one of the nation’s most prominent climate contrarians, Myron Ebell of the Competitive Enterprise Institute, to head his EPA transition. Ebell worked on policy for the tobacco industry before his years of work opposing environmental regulations and sowing doubt on climate science. Trump is also reported to be considering Harold Hamm, chief executive of fracking industry leader Continental Resources, for energy secretary, and Forrest Lucas, co-founder of oil products company Lucas Oil, for interior secretary……..
the early battle lines will be Trump’s regulatory proposals.
In Trump, U.S. Puts a Climate Denier in Its Highest Office and All Climate Change Action in Limbo
His anti-regulatory stances, support of unfettered fossil fuel production, and his threat to pull the U.S. out of the Paris agreement, send ripple effects worldwide.BY MARIANNE LAVELLE, INSIDECLIMATE NEWSNOV 9, 2016 Donald Trump’s astonishing victory has turned the world of climate action upside down, setting back U.S. environmental policy and threatening the international drive to cut carbon pollution and slow global warming. Continue reading
Even under Trump, there will still be reason for climate action hope
There’s no way around it: Donald Trump looks like a disaster for the planet Vox by Nov 9, 2016 “…….So is there any hope things won’t actually be this bad? Okay, now time for a deep breath.
Even under Trump, there will still be reason for hope. Political change unfolds in unexpected ways, and not everything on Earth revolves around the machinations of the US federal government. So here are a few reasons to think the fight against climate change is not yet lost:
- States like California and New York are still pursuing their own ambitious climate policies, and it’s possible those efforts could be so successful that other states decide to follow suit.
- Likewise, wind power, solar power, and electric cars will keep getting cheaper — it’s possible they’ll acquire a self-sustaining momentum, even without support from the US government. Or maybe some other new low-carbon technologies will emerge to shake up climate politics. (Small modular reactors, anyone?)
- Climate activists will continue to push for action at local levels — much as they did during the George W. Bush years, when the Sierra Club began blocking a major planned expansion of coal power. It’s possible that opposition to Trump will galvanize a new generation of climate activists who find creative ways to address global warming.
- Other countries still have their own reasons for tackling climate change, even China and India (which, note, is choking on deadly levels of air pollution in Delhi right now). It’s possible that Trump’s recalcitrance on climate change could motivate the rest of the world to redouble their efforts at curtailing emissions without us.
- Heck, it’s even possible that Trump and the GOP could have a change of heart and decide that global warming is a real issue that needs to be taken seriously. It’s possible that Republicans could balk at repealing all these pollution regulations, realizing that they’re actually quite popular. Stranger things have happened.
So lots of stuff is possible. Climate change will continue to be a defining issue for generations, long after Donald Trump is gone — and there’s never reason to give up. But the landscape has undeniably shifted. The prospect of staying below 2°C looks increasingly bleak. Right now Trump has given every indication that he wants to gamble with the future of the only planet around that’s known to support life. And it’s a wildly irresponsible bet.
Further reading
— The 6 most important parts of Donald Trump’s energy policy
— From my colleague Ezra Klein: It’s now on America’s institutions — and the Republican Party — to check Donald Trump
— Andy Revkin offers a somewhat more optimistic take on environmentalism under Trump here. I disagree with his assessment of global politics, but obviously I could be wrong! His take is worth reading. http://www.vox.com/2016/11/9/13571318/donald-trump-disaster-climate
Donald Trump wants to blow up the global climate effort
There’s no way around it: Donald Trump looks like a disaster for the planet Vox by Nov 9, 2016 This is happening. Donald Trump is going to be president of the United States.
And there’s no way around it: What he’s planning to do looks like an absolute disaster for the planet (and the people on it). Specifically, all the fragile but important progress the world has made on global warming over the past eight years is now in danger of being blown up.
Trump has been crystal clear about his environmental plans. Much of the media never wanted to bring it up, never wanted to ask about it in debates, never wanted to turn their addled attention away from Hillary Clinton’s email servers to discuss what a Trump presidency might mean for climate change. But the warning signs were there:
- Trump called global warming a Chinese hoax. He couldn’t have been blunter about this. He also tapped Myron Ebell, an avowed climate denier, to head his EPA transition team.
- Trump has said, straight up, he wants to scrap all the major regulations that President Obama painstakingly put in place to reduce US carbon dioxide emissions, including the Clean Power Plan. If Trump wants to rewrite these rules through executive action, he can. Or Republicans in Congress could try to pass a law forbidding the EPA from ever regulating CO2 again.
- Trump has also hinted he wants to downsize the EPA. “What they do is a disgrace,” he has said. He now has the power to rewrite or scale back other regulations on mercury pollution, on ground-level ozone, on coal ash, and more.
- Trump has said he wants to repeal all federal spending on clean energy, including R&D for wind, solar, nuclear power, and electric vehicles. This would require Congress, but it’s not impossible.
- Trump has said he wants to pull the United States out of the Paris climate deal. There’s nothing stopping him here. Technically, the US can’t officially withdraw for four years, but for all practical purposes, the Trump administration could ignore it.
So what happens if Trump gets his way? More air pollution, more carbon emissions. Exactly how much more remains to be seen. There are, after all, plenty of other factors pushing down US emissions that Trump has no control over. Natural gas from fracking would continue to kill coal power. Wind and solar would continue to grow. But it’s nearly impossible to imagine emissions under Trump dropping at the sharp pace necessary to slow global warming. And emissions could even rise, as this analysis from Lux Research suggests.
The world is making cautious progress on global warming. Trump wants to blow that all up.
For the last eight years, the Obama administration has been using every regulatory lever at its disposal to push down US greenhouse gases — aiming for a 28 percent cut below 2005 levels by 2025. Obama has also been trying to coax countries like China to participate in a global climate deal, in which every country would voluntarily pledge to restrain its emissions and meet regularly at the UN to ratchet up ambitions over time.
That plan finally came to fruition last December, when the world agreed to a sweeping climate agreement in Paris. The Paris deal was always delicate, and the current pledges weren’t nearly enough to avoid dangerous global warming, defined as 2°C or more. But the deal was a start. And the hope was that by cooperating and exerting diplomatic pressure on each other, all countries would steadily increase action over time.
Now it’s in peril. If Trump yanks the United States out of the Paris agreement, the deal won’t die, but momentum could wane. One can imagine China and India deciding they don’t need to push nearly as hard on clean energy if the world’s richest and most powerful country doesn’t care. At best, progress would slow. At worst, the entire arrangement could falter, and we set out on a path for 4°C warming or more.
These are decisions that will reverberate for thousands of years and affect hundreds of millions of people. We can’t easily undo the effects of all that extra carbon dioxide we keep putting into the air. Without drastic reductions in emissions (or possibly risky geoengineering), global temperatures will keep rising. The ice caps in Greenland and Antarctica will keep melting. Once that process gets underway, we can’t reverse it. The seas will rise. South Florida will eventually vanish beneath the oceans. Megadroughts will become more likely in the Southwest. For generations and generations.
This is the future of humanity at stake. We’re at risk of departing from the stable climatic conditions that sustained civilization for thousands of years and lurching into the unknown. The world’s poorest countries, in particular, are ill-equipped to handle this disruption. http://www.vox.com/2016/11/9/13571318/donald-trump-disaster-climate
The world is already experiencing dramatic impacts of human-induced climate change
Climate change already dramatically disrupting all elements of nature https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/11/161110115540.htm Source: Wildlife Conservation Society
- Summary:
- Global changes in temperature due to human-induced climate change have already impacted every aspect of life on Earth from genes to entire ecosystems, with increasingly unpredictable consequences for humans, according to a new study.
Global changes in temperature due to human-induced climate change have already impacted every aspect of life on Earth from genes to entire ecosystems, with increasingly unpredictable consequences for humans — according to a new study published in the journal Science.
The study found a staggering 80 percent of 94 ecological processes that form the foundation for healthy marine, freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems already show signs of distress and response to climate change.
Impacts to humans include increased pests and disease outbreaks, reduced productivity in fisheries, and decreasing agriculture yields.
“There is now clear evidence that, with only a ~1 degree C of warming globally, very major impacts are already being felt,” said study lead author Dr Brett Scheffers of the University of Florida. “Genes are changing, species’ physiology and physical features such as body size are changing, species are rapidly moving to keep track of suitable climate space, and there are now signs of entire ecosystems under stress.”
Said the study’s senior author, Dr. James Watson from the Wildlife Conservation Society and University of Queensland: “The level of change we have observed is quite astonishing considering we have only experienced a relatively small amount of climate change to date. It is no longer sensible to consider this a concern for the future. Policy makers and politicians must accept that if we don’t curb greenhouse gas emissions, an environmental catastrophe is likely.”
But the study also points to hope as many of the responses observed in nature could be applied by people to address the mounting issues faced under changing climate conditions. For example, improved understanding of the adaptive capacity in wildlife can be applied to our crops, livestock and fisheries. This can be seen in crops such as wheat and barley, where domesticated crops are crossed with wild varieties to maintain the evolutionary potential of varieties under climate change.
Paris climate change agreement will not be derailed by Donald Trump
Donald Trump: Paris climate change delegates hopeful presidency will not derail agreement http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-10/trump-will-not-derail-paris-climate-agreement-delegates-say/8013386 The World Today By Katherine Gregory Delegates at annual climate change talks in Morocco are hopeful Donald Trump’s presidency will not derail progress made on action.
Representatives from 200 countries are at the Marrakech summit finalising the details of the Paris Agreement on climate change, which commits governments to keeping a global temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius.
Tina Johnson from the US Climate Network said the movement had its work cut out for it now. “I think if we have a scenario where the action that he takes is contrary to where we feel it needs to be going, it will impact us, of course, because it means we have to do more work to make sure that he actually is moving in the direction that we need him to move in,” she said.
Mr Trump is a well-known climate change sceptic and has threatened to remove America from the treaty.
But Australia’s Climate Council CEO Amanda McKenzie said it was going to be difficult for him to do that. “It’s also important to note that the US climate action has come from the states,” Ms McKenzie said. “California has been driving much of the climate action and support for renewable energy in the US.
“As well as [US President Barack] Obama’s work has through regulations — which are very hard to unwind once they’re changed and in place and have impacts on the community.
“So it’s very hard for Trump to wind back international or domestic action on climate change.
“That said, of course it is a blow if he does want to take the US out of the Accord, but we need to remember this agreement is more than just one country.”
Trump says climate change a Chinese hoax
Mr Trump has previously labelled climate change a hoax and conspiracy by the Chinese.
He gave similar comments in July this year when interviewed by Bill O’Reilly from Fox News.
“If you look at what’s going on in China and all these other countries, they talk and laugh behind out back at what we’re doing,” Mr Trump said.
“We want clean air, clean water. I’ve got many environmental awards.” Mr O’Reilly asked him: “OK, but did you ever call climate change a hoax?”
Mr Trump responded: “Well I might have, because when I look at things that are going on.”
“In fact, when you look at Europe, where they had their big summit a couple of years ago, where people were sending out emails, scientists practically calling it a hoax.”
At the Marrakech summit, Greenpeace china policy advisor Li Shuo said Mr Trump’s presidency meant climate change was now a geopolitical battle between the US and China.
“We urge the next US president to take that into consideration and to be mindful of the very delicate agreement it has reached with China, in terms of US and China doing bilateral agreements, and to honour the commitments and the targets it has made with China and also in the Paris Agreement.”
‘It may mean other countries do more’Ms McKenzie said it was now up to other countries to step up to the plate. “Because so many other countries have made a substantial commitments to this, and countries like China, Brazil, the EU, Germany have all been pushing ahead on this, and I think it’s unlikely they will go backwards in their climate action,” she said.
“So it may mean other countries do more and take more leadership.”
Mr Trump has flagged he will stop all US Government funding of clean energy projects and climate change initiatives.
Experts are concerned that may also include dumping Mr Obama’s $US3 billion pledge to the Green Climate Fund, which is supposed to help vulnerable countries like those in the Pacific adapt to climate change.
International climate organisation 350.org‘s Cambell Klose said Australia’s ratifying of the Paris Agreement, albeit late, provided hope on a dark day for the climate change movement.
But he said Mr Trump’s election and the republican control of the US Senate and Congress meant there will be little resistance to any changes he might make.
“We know that he will rescind or get rid of Obama’s executive orders of climate change, which puts caps on emissions on coal stations and saw a lot of coal stations close over the last five years,” Mr Klose said. “He’s flagged he wants to see the coal industry flourish again. “The most disappointing thing is he’s looking to strip as many subsidies from renewable energy as possible and focus on drilling and it seems as though he wants to drill for oil on a lot of federal land and this could include national parks.”
Trump election victory – risk of America becoming rogue nation on climate change
Trump Victory Deals Blow to Global Fight Against Climate Change http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-09/trump-victory-seen-undermining-u-s-lead-on-pollution-fight
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Next U.S. president has said climate change is a hoax
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Focus on talks in Morocco aimed at implementing Paris deal
The global fight against climate change will suffer a blow from Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election, threatening the industries working to clean up pollution from fossil fuel.
The next president has questioned the science of climate change, vowed to withdraw from the Paris agreement on global warming and pledged to stimulate production of coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel. Green campaigners and policymakers, some of whom are gathered this week in Morocco for talks on implementing the Paris deal, sounded the alarm over the upheaval they expect when Trump takes office in January.
“The presidency of Donald Trump relegates the West as we knew it to the realm of the past,” Reinhard Butikofer and Monica Frassoni, co-chairs of the European Green Party, said in a statement. “If Donald Trump pursues the foreign policies that he announced during his campaign, this will severely undermine trans-Atlantic relations, the international rule of law and world peace.”
Under President Barack Obama, the U.S. rescued a two-decade-old process the United Nations promoted to rein in pollution damaging the climate, forging the Paris deal last year. Along with China and more than 190 other countries, the accord set out a framework for all nations to cut emissions. Trump has said he will cancel that work.“This is a very bad outcome,” Tom Steyer, founder of San Francisco-based advocacy group NextGen Climate Action, said in a phone interview Wednesday. “The Paris accord was a historic attempt to move forward as a globe to deal with a global problem, with American leadership. If he follows through on his campaign statements, that would be a devastating mistake.”
Delegates at COP22 react to Trump win
May Boeve, executive director of the anti-fossil-fuel campaign group 350.org, said in a statement that “Trump will try and slam the brakes on climate action. Our work becomes much harder now, but it’s not impossible, and we refuse to give up.”
It would be difficult for Trump to pull out of the Paris accord, which is part of the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which the U.S. ratified under Republican President George H.W. Bush. Trump would have to renounce the 1992 treaty or risk bringing down the entire UN process to scrap Paris. He’d have to give three years of notice to withdraw legally.
“If the U.S. pulls out of this process and is seen as going as a rogue nation on climate change, that will have implications for everything else on President Trump’s agenda when he wants to deal with foreign leaders,” Alden Meyer, who has been following the UN talks for more than two decades, said at the organization’s annual gathering in Marrakech on Wednesday. “I think he will soon come to understand that.”Doubts about U.S. support for the accord may stall progress in talks in Morocco this week and next, since other nations wouldn’t trust that any commitments the U.S. made will stick after Trump takes office. The U.S. is the richest among the top six polluting nations, and its support for the deal is essential to keep China and other developing economies working for cleaner industry.French Environment Minister Segolene Royal expressed concern about Trump’s stance in a posting on Twitter, noting that Obama “ratified and committed” the U.S. to the Paris agreement and there should be “no withdrawal,” adding, “Let’s stay vigilant for climate.”
In Trump administration, climate denier Sarah Palin tipped to be in charge of climate policy
Trump Campaign Leaks MAJOR Sarah Palin Announcement, Sit Down For This (DETAILS), http://bipartisanreport.com/2016/11/09/breaking-trump-campaign-leaks-major-sarah-palin-announcement-sit-down-for-this-details/ Nov Palin A By Pearson McKinney –
The only climate-denying world leader – Donald Trump
Donald Trump will be the only climate-denying world leader Mashable, BY ANDREW FREEDMAN, 10 Nov 16 If a Donald J. Trump administration acts on the president-elect’s view that global warming’s a “hoax,” the consequences of the presidential election may echo for generations. When he’s sworn into office in January, Trump becomes the only leader of a major industrialized country to deny the existence of human-caused global warming.
In the lead-up to the election, environmental leaders and climate scientists issued apocalyptic warnings of what a Trump presidency would do to efforts to rein in global warming, given that the Paris Climate Agreement only just went into effect on Nov. 4, and is still fragile. Now, some of these same people are shellshocked, but remain resolved to opposing attempts to slow the pace of emissions cuts, which climate science says is a crucial factor in determining how much the world will warm in the next several decades.
The U.S. and the world can’t afford to stall or slide backwards on climate progress, according to scientific research. Studies show climate change proceeding faster than anticipated, with a narrowing window to act in order to forestall the worst impacts of global warming, such as a catastrophic increase in sea levels.
In fact, a recent U.N. report showed that if we are to have any hope of meeting the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to under 2 degrees Celsius, or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, below preindustrial levels, emissions cuts need to become more ambitious.
The Obama administration committed to reducing U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 25 to 28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025, and it’s expected to lay out a decarbonization plan by midcentury during the ongoing U.N. climate talks in Marrakech, Morocco.
During the campaign, Trump made clear he would dismantle those regulations and others.
A Trump White House will have few checks on its power given that Republicans hold both houses of Congress, meaning that there could be significant rollbacks of EPA regulations and climate-related executive orders that could have ramifications beyond a single presidential term.
A slowdown or halt in U.S. emissions cuts would shift the climate math in favor of more severe global warming impacts. Leading environmental activist and journalist Bill McKibben emphasized that issue when reached on Wednesday, telling Mashable that “… The results of this election may eventually be measured in inches or feet of sea level rise.”
He went on to say that the U.S. is “one of the world’s biggest economies, and even just four years of unbridled emission staying in the atmosphere for many hundreds years would make a substantial difference. The climate system doesn’t forget, and it doesn’t forgive.”
Environmental groups unite
Trump’s election may help unify the environmental movement in opposition to the White House, making opposition to new fossil fuel projects, anti-regulatory moves and other potential actions more intense and effective.
“This is an undeniable tragedy, but of course as organizers, our job is try and forge some sort of way ahead,” said Jamie Henn, a spokesman for 350.org, in an email on Wednesday morning.
Henn says the group will push the Obama administration to take fossil fuel projects currently undergoing review off the table, and then focus on flexing its muscles to oppose Trump’s moves…….http://mashable.com/2016/11/09/trump-climate-denier-president/#M.xO4eMvMkqu
Megadroughts, Extinctions, Water, Air, Fire – the results of climate change
Climate Disruption’s Legacy: Megadroughts, Extinctions, Obituaries for Reefs Sunday, 06 November 2016 00:00By Dahr Jamail, Truthout | Report “…..September of this year saw Earth pass a dramatic threshold — one that signifies our entrance into a new era of anthropogenic climate disruption (ACD). September 2016 will now be remembered as the month that Earth passed the threshold of 400 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere permanently, according to scientists.
That means that no one currently alive on the planet will ever again see an atmosphere with less than 400 ppm CO2……
We are watching giant pieces of our planet’s biosphere die before our eyes…….
The Great Barrier Reef obituary is a sign of our times, and we must brace ourselves for more tragedies like it — for coral reefs, glaciers, ice fields, forests, lakes, rivers, and of course, species……
Even in late October, Arctic sea ice hit a new record daily low extent, underscoring the fact that this year’s record low readings are three million square kilometers below the same day readings (October 23) of that day in 1981.
Earth
A recently published report on Earth’s biodiversity revealed that global wildlife numbers have fallen by 58 percent since just 1970. The report — called The Living Planet assessment — produced by the Zoological Society of London and the World Wildlife Fund also said that if trends continue, this decline will likely reach two-thirds among vertebrates in only four more years. The report lists ACD as one of the driving factors of the great dying.
The report confirms what many of us have been watching for a number of years now — that we are bearing witness to the collapse of wildlife. We are so obviously living in the Anthropocene: the era in which humans exert the dominant influence over Earth and its destiny……..
Water
This month, as usual, ACD-fueled dramatic changes in water-related phenomena abound.
A recently published study found that multi-decade megadroughts due to ACD are “virtually certain” across the US Southwest.
Perhaps this has already begun as by late October, over 120 million people (28 percent of the population of the lower 48 states) were experiencing drought. California entered the sixth year of its drought.
Things are looking grim for the Mediterranean region as well, as another study warned that even if the Earth only warmed 2C (which is a laughably low estimate at this point) widespread desertification will overtake huge swaths of this lush region and render the ecosystem there “unrecognizable.”
At the other end of the extreme water event spectrum, Louisiana is struggling to figure out what to do about rising seas.
Air
Evidence that conditions in the atmosphere are worsening continues to unfold.
A study recently published in Nature shows that, thanks to leaks from oil and gas activities around the world being far more persistent and larger than previously believed, methane emissions from that industry are likely 60 percent higher than estimated. Methane is 22 times more potent a greenhouse gas than CO2…….
Fire
Given that this year saw the hottest summer ever recorded, it comes as no surprise that there has been a preponderance of fires, many of which persisted well into the fall season.
Massive fires covering millions of acres across Russia prompted many residents to sign a petition to Vladimir Putin, in which they complained of suffocating from the smoke. According to independent satellite analysis from experts, huge fires across Siberia have burned millions of acres year after year, and have caused a dramatic uptick in the number of fires facing that region.
In Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology recently released a report stating that that country is experiencing more extreme fire weather and hotter days as ACD progresses. Fire season there has been extended by several weeks, according to the agency, and that trend is expected to continue to increase.
In the US, a study recently published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences shows that ACD is what is behind the recent surge in wildfires across the west, as the research ties them directly to escalating temperatures…..http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/38236-climate-disruption-s-legacy-megadroughts-extinctions-obituaries-for-reefs
1 This Month
19 November – Webinar – The Reality of Reprocessing
Time: 11:00 AM Pacific Time (US & Canada) / 2:00 PM Eastern / 7:00 PM UK / 8:00 PM CET
Register for the Zoom Event Here
Shut down the radiation-damaged Heysham nuclear reactors now
To see nuclear-related stories in greater depth and intensity – go to https://nuclearinformation.wordpress.com
Say No to NASA’s Reckless Nuclear Reactor on the Moon
Say No to NASA’s Reckless Nuclear Reactor on the Moon
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