Reuters reports on diplomatic dance – USA and Iran on nuclear development
However, Obama asked for scope to apply the measures flexibly, and will have discretion to waive penalties. Senior U.S. officials said Washington was consulting foreign partners to ensure the new measures did not harm global energy markets.
Despite its missile tests, war games and threats to close the Hormuz Strait, Iran has also made conciliatory gestures, saying it wants to resume talks with major powers, stalled for a year, about its nuclear research programme…..
Iran reports nuclear progress as sanctions loom Jan 1, 2012
* Missile test and fuel rod breakthrough challenge West
* Obama signs sanctions targeting Iran’s oil exports
* Tehran offers fresh nuclear talks in letter to EU
By Parisa Hafezi TEHRAN, Jan 1 (Reuters) – – Iran announced a nuclear fuel breakthrough and test-fired a new radar-evading medium-range missile in the Gulf on Sunday, moves that could further antagonise the West at a time when Tehran is trying to avert harsh new sanctions on its oil industry. Continue reading
Sanctions and diplomacy a much wiser action than attacking Iran
open nuclear war between Israel and Iran is very unlikely. Israel knows that the consequences would be grave and in Iran’s case, the regime knows that it would result in their demise.
Iraq’s fledgling democracy is also likely to be negatively affected by war with Iran. And Saudi Arabia is also likely to be targeted, too. Syria may need to crackdown even more repressively on its internal protesters in order to support Iran.
there is no guarantee that an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites would eliminate all of Iran’s nuclear sites,
war with Iran is likely going to unite the people behind an unpopular government. This should be avoided.
The Standoff With Iran: Challenges and Options, Huffington Post, PAUL HEROUX , 31 Dec 11 War is said to be the result of political failure. The tense standoff with Iran is heating up again since Iran has threatened to shot down the 34-mile-wide Strait of Hormuz. 15 million barrels of oil are shipped through the Strait every day, which makes up about 1/3 of the world’s sea shipped oil. Continue reading
Iran ready for diplomatic solution to nuclear question
With Israel and Washingtonkeeping open the possibility of pre-emptive strikes on Iran to stop it getting nuclear weapons, negotiations are a possible way of avoiding what analysts say would be military action that could inflame the Middle East.
‘Iran ready to renew nuclear talks with powers’ Jerusalem Post, 12/30/2011 Iranian FM Salehi says Tehran prepared to reenter negotiations with P5+1 nations based on Russian “step by step” plan.
Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said that the Islamic Republic is prepared to renew talks with the P5+1 group of world powers over its controversial nuclear program, the Tehran Times reported on Friday.
Speaking with Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister Zhai Jun in Tehran, Salehi said that Iran was prepared to reenter negotiations with the group made up of the US, Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany based on the “step by step” plan proposed by Moscow in July. The plan calls for a gradual easing of sanctions against Iran in exchange for the Islamic Republic disclosing details about its nuclear program…..
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told US President Barack Obama in July of Moscow’s “step-by-step” approach under which Iran could address questions about its nuclear program and be rewarded with a gradual easing of sanctions.
Salehi’s comments came amid increased tensions between Iran and the West, particularly the United States. Iran has threatened to close shipping lanes in the Persian Gulf if the West imposes sanctions on its oil exports. The US Fifth Fleet responded on Wednesday that it would not allow any disruption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a strip of water separating Oman and Iran.
Also on Thursday, the US announced that it will sell $29.4 billion in fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, in a deal the White House said would help reinforce regional security in the Gulf amid mounting tension with Iran. http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=251599
A military strike on Iran could be more catastrophic than accepting a nuclear Iran
The Gathering Storm: A pessimistic prognosis for 2012 A military attack on Iran, by either Israel or the U.S., might lead to no less catastrophic consequences than a nuclear-armed regime in Tehran. Haaretz, By Chemi Shalev, 30 Dec 11 “….. with Israel and Iran’s nuclear programs, it is a clear and present danger visible to all, discussed and dissected day
in and day out in newspapers, think tanks and intelligence forums throughout the world. Therefore, let’s dispense with looking back at 2011, and concentrate on the day of reckoning that will arrive, by all indications, over the course of 2012……..
Israel and the U.S. will soon be called upon to decide between a preemptive military strike and coming to terms with Iran as the world’s tenth nuclear power….. Continue reading
Conflict between Iran, USA, Israel unlikely, despite sabre rattling
Iran’s nuclear issue escalates, but unlikely into conflict, On Dec. 14, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a massive defense bill, which requests new sanctions on Iran, targeting foreign financial institutions that do business with the Islamic republic’s central bank. BEIJING, Dec. 29 (Xinhua) –– Iran’s nuclear issue has escalated again recently with the West mulling sanctions on Iran’s Central Bank and its crude exports, but the seeming saber-rattling on the part of both sides is unlikely to evolve into an imminent conflict. Continue reading
Threat to cut off oil exports- Iran – if there are more sanctions over its nuclear development
Iran threatens to cut off oil exports if sanctions imposed over nuclear activity Reuters Dec 27, 2011 By Ramin Mostafavi TEHRAN — Iran threatened on Tuesday to stop the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz if foreign sanctions were imposed on its crude exports over its nuclear ambitions, a move that could trigger military conflict with economies dependent on Gulf oil.
Western tensions with Iran have increased since a November 8 report by the UN nuclear watchdog saying Tehran appears to have worked on designing an atomic bomb and may still be pursuing research to that end. Iran strongly denies this and says it is developing nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.
Iran has defiantly expanded nuclear activity despite four rounds of UN sanctions meted out since 2006 over its refusal to suspend sensitive uranium enrichment and open up to UN nuclear inspectors and investigators…..
Countries in the 27-member European Union take 450,000 barrels per day of Iranian oil, about 18 percent of the Islamic Republic’s exports, much of which go to China and India. EU officials declined to comment on Tuesday….. http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/12/27/iran-threatens-to-cut-off-oil-exports-if-sanctions-imposed-over-nuclear-activity/
The political realities of Iran and the nuclear issue
Concerns built around the fiery anti-western and anti-Israeli rhetoric of Ahmadinejad and his clerical contemporaries again seem to be purposefully ignoring the realities of political theatre,
US troops have been deployed along two of its major borders for more than a decade. Perhaps it is because, despite assisting coalition forces against the Taliban in 2001, Iran was singled out as one of the major targets of George W Bush’s infamous 2002 ‘Axis of Evil’ speech. Perhaps, with an unrivalled number of American-backed and led regime changes in the Middle East, Central Asia and North Africa over the past 10 years, Tehran is getting even more wary of the impact of US exceptionalism in the region. Perhaps Tehran knows that, had Saddam actually possessed nuclear weapons in 2003 there is no way in hell the US would have pulled a blitzkrieg on Baghdad.
Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear arsenal makes perfect sense from a defensive and deterrence standpoint.
Stop worrying and learn to love the Iranian bomb, The Drum, Ben Rich 28 Dec 11, Prominent figures within the Israeli and US governments are beating the war drum over the issue of Iran’s progress towards nuclearisation. Regardless of whether or not Iran will actually seek to weaponise its nuclear program, the chances of it utilising WMDs for anything more than posturing remain next to zero.
Critics of Iran’s nuclear program loudly contend that Tehran is irrational and will not operate within the accepted nuclear paradigm of modern states. This claim is at best, obtuse conjecture, and in all likelihood, purposeful disinformation.
Iranian foreign policy has traditionally been cautious, and post-revolutionary Iran has never initiated a conventional conflict. Claims that Tehran’s willingness to engage in clandestine operations demonstrate an inherent irrationality and hold little credibility when held up against the plethora of other states, many of them Western, who engage in the same activities and are still considered wholly rational. Continue reading
Pakistani and Indian experts co-operate in nuclear weapons safety talks
Pakistan, India Call for Extending Agreement on Preventing Nuclear Accidents Voice of America, December 27th, 2011 Pakistan and India say officials from both sides have called for
extending an agreement on reducing the risk of nuclear accidents relating to their countries’ atomic weapon stockpiles. Pakistani and Indian government experts discussed nuclear confidence-building measures in Islamabad on Tuesday, the second day of a two-day dialogue between the nuclear-armed rivals. The talks are part of a peace process that resumed in February following a two-year break.
In a joint statement, Pakistan and India said the experts agreed to advise their foreign ministries to prolong the existing agreement on preventing nuclear weapon-related accidents by five years. The statement described the talks as “cordial” and “constructive.”
In Monday’s talks, Pakistan proposed that both sides relocate their heavy weaponry at least 30 kilometers away from the Line of Control, a de facto border that divides Pakistani- and Indian-controlled Kashmir. India made no immediate public response to the idea of demilitarizing the Line of Control….. http://blogs.voanews.com/breaking-news/2011/12/27/pakistan-india-call-for-extending-agreement-on-preventing-nuclear-accidents/
Japan trying to sell nuclear technology to India
India, Japan PMs to meet today, N-trade tops agenda Times of India, Sachin Parashar, TNN | Dec 27, 2011, NEW DELHI: Despite the Japanese Parliament, Diet, clearing Japan’s civil nuclear cooperation with four other countries allowing it to resume its supply of nuclear reactors, India remains uncertain about the resumption of its own negotiations for such cooperation with Tokyo.
Ahead of Japanese PM Yoshihiko Noda’s visit to India on Tuesday for the 6th annual India-Japan summit, officials said the issue would be taken up in Noda’s meeting with his counterpart Manmohan Singh, but added that it was not possible to say what the outcome would be…..http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/India-Japan-PMs-to-meet-today-N-trade-tops-agenda/articleshow/11261201.cms
USA and North Korea were close to agreement on uranium enrichment
U.S. will trade food for uranium agreement from North Korea, Negotiations yield several advances Detroit Free Press, Dec. 19, 2011 The U.S. is poised to announce a significant donation of food aid to North Korea this week, the first concrete accomplishment after months of behind-the-scenes diplomatic contacts between the two wartime enemies. An agreement by North Korea to suspend its controversial uranium enrichment program will likely follow within days.
A broad outline of the emerging agreement has been made known to the Associated Press by people close to the negotiations.
Discussions have been taking place since summer in New York, Geneva, Switzerland, and Beijing. They already have yielded agreements by North Korea to suspend nuclear and ballistic missile testing, readmit international nuclear inspectors expelled in 2009, and resume adialogue between North Korea and South Korea, according to the people,
who spoke on condition of anonymity because of sensitivity of the negotiations…..
http://www.freep.com/article/20111219/NEWS07/112190328/U-S-will-trade-food-uranium-agreement-from-North-Korea?odyssey=mod%7Cnewswell%7Ctext%7CFRONTPAGE%7Cs
USA policies, especially on Israel, motivate Iran to get nuclear weapons
an almost purposeful U.S. policy to drive others to obtain the “doomsday explosive”
by allowing Israel to develop the weapons, the U.S. and friends already stimulated the Middle East arms race. It is mainly due to the United States, Great Britain and France that Israel has nuclear capability. As a consequence, Middle East nations sought means to neutralize the Israel bomb…..
US Policies Motivate Iran To Obtain Nuclear Weapon by: Dan Lieberman December 18, 2011 When the United States sent the B-29 Superfortress bomber, Elona Gay, to drop “Little Boy” on an unwary Hiroshima and ushered in the nuclear age, its administration neglected to plan for a major concern; how to prevent nuclear proliferation. America could not effectively deter the Soviet Union and China from developing a nuclear capability and maybe it did not want its British and French allies from feeling deprived. Nevertheless, all of those nations, with the United States in the lead, had the power to cower India and Pakistan into being content with conventional armaments. Belatedly and ineffectively, the U.S. tried to discourage Pakistan in its bomb-making activities by terminating economic and military aid in
Oct. 1992. The bluster did not work. Continue reading
Sanctions against Iran’s central bank may bring about global economic repercussions
What Happened to Obama’s Nuclear Option? In a showdown over how to deal with Iran, it appears that the president has bowed to Congress. Mother Jones. By Hamed Aleaziz Dec. 16, 2011 Now that the essential Defense Authorization Bill has
passed through the House and Senate, it carries with it a hard-line amendment that would level sanctions against Iran’s central bank. The policy, experts say, could not only inflict pain on Iran for its nuclear weapons ambitions, but also potentially cause global economic
repercussions. The White House has been against the amendment. Congress overwhelmingly voted for it.
If signed into law by President Obama, the new sanctions will be enforced against foreign institutions in Europe and around the world that do business with the Central Bank of Iran. Continue reading
Steps for USA and Russia towards nuclear disarmament
There is, however, some unfinished business concerning the 20 year-old Presidential Nuclear Initiatives (PNI’s) that both governments could take up now to help lay the foundation for future talks.
the United States and Russia have grown accustomed to sharing considerable information about their longer-range strategic nuclear forces. For years, they have routinely exchanged and updated information on the disposition of retiring nuclear-capable bombers and
missiles. Similar processes could be applied to the types and numbers of tactical nuclear systems affected by the P.N.I.’s.
The next logical step would be for both countries to disclose, on a reciprocal basis, the location, types and numbers of tactical nuclear weapons that remain.
Unfinished Business, NYT, FRANK KLOTZ, SUSAN KOCH and FRANKLIN MILLER December 13, 2011“……..the subject of reducing tactical nuclear weapons has again come to the fore. Signing the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty in April 2010, President Obama announced that the United States intended to pursue further reductions in all categories of nuclear weapons — including, for the first time, tactical and nondeployed warheads. Voting to approve the treaty, the U.S. Senate called for negotiations with Russia to address the
disparity in U.S. and Russian tactical nuclear weapons and to secure and reduce those weapons in a verifiable manner.
The specific size of that disparity is a matter of debate. Neither the United States nor Russia has publicly disclosed the number and locations of the tactical nuclear weapons they possess.
Unofficial estimates vary widely. Continue reading
The world might have to learn to live with a nuclear Iran
Can the world live with a near-nuclear Iran?, By Mohammed Ayoob, December 14, 2011 — (CNN) –– Some analysts have attributed the recent downing of a U.S. RQ-170 Sentinel high-altitude reconnaissance drone in Iran to that nation’s increasingly sophisticated capability tolaunch cyber attacks. Others have dismissed the idea that Iran was capable of bringing down an RQ-170, arguing that Iranian air defenses do not have the capability to track an aircraft with radar-evadingtechnology.
Either way, the incident clearly demonstrates American concerns regarding Iran’s nuclear capacity, as the drone was likely sent over Iranian territory to spy on its nuclear program.
I find the argument that Iran is engaged in developing a nuclear weapons program credible. I am also convinced that Iran will not test a device, but rather will acquire the capability to produce a weapon quickly if its strategic environment deteriorates to such an extent
that it feels it must.
I am further convinced that an Israeli or American strike or strikes against its nuclear facilities would put Iran’s nuclear program back by a few years but would not be able to terminate it. In fact, such strikes would provide Tehran with the legitimacy to go ahead and
acquire nuclear weapons capability in full view of the world and with international sympathy.
It is time for world leaders to recognize the inevitability of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons capability, even if it remains untested, with Tehran following the policy and adopting the rhetoric of deliberate ambiguity. Continue reading
Russia’s global nuclear ambitions
A new ARMZ race, Asia Times, 14 Dec 11 By Peter Lee The people who brought about Chernobyl are pressing to become the world’s leading source for nuclear power equipment, materials, and services.
Russia’s quasi-state nuclear power authority, Rosatom, has ambitions of becoming the world’s one-stop shop for nuclear plants, uranium fuel and spent fuel services. Currently accounting for 20% of the world’s nuclear power stations and 17% of global nuclear fuel fabrication, Rosatom wants to double in size and become the dominant player in uranium ore and spent fuel in the process.
In places like Kazakhstan, Canada, Niger, Australia, the United States and Mongolia, Rosatom’s (AtomRedMetZoloto) Uranium Holding Co, or ARMZ, is seeking to dominate worldwide uranium production. Over the past two decades, Russia has aggressively leveraged the nuclear legacy of the Cold War competition between the United States and the Soviet Union. In the nuclear arms race with the United States, the USSR always opted for quantity and size rather than quality….
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