Changing nature of Israel – Iran nuclear standoff
The Drone in the Desert http://isnblog.ethz.ch/ Itamar Rabinovich, 8 November 2012 TEL AVIV – A drone recently penetrated Israel’s airspace from the Mediterranean. It was allowed to fly for about half an hour over southern Israel before being shot down by the Israeli air force over a sparsely populated area.
It is still not known who dispatched the drone and from where, but it is now assumed that it was launched from Lebanon, either by Hezbollah, acting in Iran’s service, or by forces of the Iranian regime itself.
If that is indeed the case, the episode should not be regarded as yet another incident in a region fraught by conflict and violence. On the contrary, it is a significant window into the arena in which the conflict over the future of Iran’s nuclear program is being waged.
Several developments and forces are now shaping this arena. One is by Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s decision, announced in his
speech to the United Nations General Assembly last month, to suspend his threat to launch unilateral military action against Iran’s nuclear installations. He has said that Israel will give the US and the rest of the international community an opportunity to stop Iran’s progress through other means by the spring or early summer of 2013. (more…)
Iran’s Supreme Leader adopting a cautious path, about nuclear weapons
Instead of treading a straight Roman Road to a nuclear weapon, he has twice veered off course.
Could Iran’s Supreme Leader be more cautious than we think?
Telegraph, By David Blair November 1st, 2012 My interview with Ehud Barak in London on Tuesday attracted a good deal of attention and comment. The Israeli defence minister’s most striking statement concerned Iran’s decision to convert much of its stockpile of 20 per cent enriched uranium into harmless fuel rods. Without that event, Barak confirmed that the crisis over Iran’s nuclear ambitions would “probably” have peaked about now. Instead, Iran’s decision “allows contemplating delaying the moment of truth by eight to ten months”. Continue reading
USA pressure on Japan to keep with nuclear energy
U.S. needs Japan to remain nuclear, US expert says Relations in region not likely to change with Obama or Romney, even in China tiesJapan Times, By TAKASHI KITAZUME, 3 Nov 12 A “zero-nuclear” Japan will be a serious concern for the United States as its key ally both from economic and security standpoints, the chief of an influential U.S. think tank said at a recent seminar on Japan-U.S. relations.
The policy set out in September by Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda’s Cabinet seeking to phase out nuclear power generation in Japan by the end of the 2030s — in response to strong anti-nuclear sentiments in the country following the triple meltdowns at Tokyo Electric Power Co.’s Fukushima No. 1 Nuclear Power Plant in March 2011 — is not viable given Japan’s vast economic needs, said John Hamre, president and CEO of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Hamre, a former deputy U.S. defense secretary, and his CSIS colleague Michael Green were speaking at a seminar organized by the Keizai Koho Center on Oct. 25 to discuss American policy on East Asia ahead of the U.S. presidential election as well as the imminent change in leadership in China.
Nuclear power generation in Japan over the past four decades has been an important part of Japan’s economic success that provided “a strong, reliable supply of base energy” for the historically energy-poor country, Hamre said.
While he said he understood that the Fukushima crisis shook people’s confidence in nuclear power — just as the 1979 Three Mile Island incident did for Americans — he noted there is “too much of a romantic idea about alternative energy in this country as a substitute for nuclear power.”
The Democratic Party of Japan-led government’s policy does not include a specific road map to achieve the goal, but assumes that renewable sources like wind and solar power will account for a greater portion of the nation’s energy mix in coming decades.
Citing U.S. experience in wind and solar power generation, Hamre said the low efficiency and output of these sources that rely on natural conditions will not “replace the base capacity of nuclear power generation.”……
Hamre said. “There can’t be any romanticism about alternative energy. If you’re going to be a modern, sophisticated economy, you have to address this question of making nuclear power a legitimate source of energy.”
Hamre also said the policy poses a security concern from the viewpoint of international control for nonproliferation of nuclear materials…..
If Japan is to give up nuclear energy — and if nuclear power is to wither in the U.S. due to competition with cheap natural gas and in Europe as in the case of Germany — “the countries that have given us the security system are going to diminish, and who’s going to replace them?” he said. “Americans cannot afford from a security standpoint to have Japan abandon nuclear power. It’s too important to us.”.….. http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nb20121103d1.html
Iran and Israel – moderate responses on nuclear issue
Could Iran’s Supreme Leader be more cautious than we think?
The Telegraph, By David Blair World November 1st, 2012 My interview with Ehud Barak in London on Tuesday attracted a good deal of attention and comment. The Israeli defence minister’s most striking statement concerned Iran’s decision to convert much of its stockpile of 20 per cent enriched uranium into harmless fuel rods. Without that event, Barak confirmed that the crisis over Iran’s nuclear ambitions would “probably” have peaked about now. Instead, Iran’s decision “allows contemplating delaying the moment of truth by eight to ten months”.
In his speech before the UN General Assembly in September, Benjamin Netanyahu softened Israel’s position on the possibility of an imminent military strike, saying that the critical moment would arrive next spring or summer. Barak told me that Iran’s move was “in the background of our decision”.
So the figures tucked away on page 8 of the last IAEA report on Iran’s nuclear programme turned out to be of vital importance. They showed that Iran took 71.25 kg of its stockpile of 20 per cent enriched uranium and converted it into fuel rods for the Tehran Research Reactor, a civilian facility. The uranium enriched to 20 per cent purity is the material that is closest to weapons-grade. Out of a total holding of 189.4 kg, Iran has devoted 37.6 per cent to a peaceful purpose…..
In 2003, we know that Iran suspended its research on how to build a nuclear warhead (although the evidence suggests that some work was restarted later). Now we know that during the course of this year, Iran took a big chunk of the uranium that was closest to weapons-grade and used it for a harmless purpose. Thanks to Barak’s candour, we also know that this decision probably averted a crisis.
Could Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, be more cautious than we think? Instead of treading a straight Roman Road to a nuclear weapon, he has twice veered off course. To me, that suggests that he is nervous and feeling the pressure. Is the ultimate destination of Iran’s nuclear programme still an open question? http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/davidblair/100187473/could-irans-supreme-leader-be-more-cautious-than-we-think/
India’s Attorney General not happy about waiving nuclear liability law for Russian nuclear reactors
‘Why nuclear liability waiver for Russian company’
Dhananjay Mahapatra, TNN | Nov 1, 2012 NEW DELHI: Attorney general G E Vahanvati has reservations over the ministry of external affairs’ backing for grant of a nuclear liability law waiver to the Russian
manufacturer for Units 3 and 4 of Kudankulam nuclear power plant on the ground that while this could be legal under a 2008 inter-governmental agreement, it might not be prudent. Continue reading
Iran seeking compromise over the nuclear issue?
Senior Iranian figures push for compromise over nuclear issue Telegraph, 27 Oct 12, Senior figures inside Iran’s regime have “succumbed” to the pressure imposed by sanctions and favour compromise over the nuclear issue, according to the public comments of their colleagues. By David Blair, Chief Foreign Correspondent Continue reading
Many Australians anxious about the grubby deal to sell uranium to India
Anxiety about uranium sales to India arises from the poor safety reputation of that country’s nuclear power industry and its development of nuclear weapons in violation of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty
the visit looked for all the world like a sales pitch. The awarding of an Order of Australia to Indian batsman Sachin
Tandulkar was clearly intended to butter up customers for a big purchase.
The truth is that Australia, taking its cue from the US, is not worried about India having nuclear arms. In fact, it fits in nicely with long-term planning in the Pentagon.
The grubby saga of uranium sales to India, CPA 25 Oct 12 Prime Minister Gillard’s visit to India last week was pure pantomime. She met her counterpart, Mr Manmohan Singh, and took part in all manner of events and photo opportunities in an effort to repair Australia’s damaged reputation on the sub-continent –…– and to seal a deal that has made many observers nervous. Continue reading
Russia’s Putin is put out about India’s Nuclear Liability Law
Kudankulam sparks ‘nuclear winter’, Putin defers visit Sachin Parashar, TNN | Oct 23, 201 NEW DELHI: In a sudden and unexpected move, Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to postpone his much-awaited summit meet with PM Manmohan Singh by close to two months. The meet, which was scheduled to take place on November 1 and for which groundwork had been completed during deputy prime minister Dmitry Rogozin’s visit to India last week, will now take place on December 24. .. TOI had learnt on Friday that since Moscow was not pleased with the outcome of Rogozin’s visit, Putin may decide to delay his India visit.
While the Russians had been maintaining that the cost of the reactors will go up substantially if suppliers are made accountable for compensation, they were still hoping that the two sides would be able to circumvent, if not override, the liability provisions through some arrangement that will acknowledge Moscow’s contribution to India’s nuclear power industry even during times of adversity. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Kudankulam-sparks-nuclear-winter-Putin-defers-visit/articleshow/16920253.cms
Australia jumps to obey USA, on India, uranium, and militarism
Gillard is helping to destabilise the sub-continent by fuelling a dangerous arms race involving India’s rivals, China and Pakistan.
The Labor government’s about face on uranium sales to India under Gillard was carried out on Washington’s orders. In November 2011, the US ambassador to Australia, Jeffrey Bleich, publicly called on Canberra to “sort out” its issues with India, as the US had done when it resolved the “thorny point” of uranium sales through the 2008 nuclear deal that exempted India from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)
Australian PM visit to India bolsters new “strategic partnership” WSWS, By Patrick O’Connor 20 October2012 Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s three-day trip to India this week was aimed at deepening military, diplomatic, and economic ties between the two countries.
Washington has encouraged the closer relations as part of its aggressive drive to undermine the influence of China in the Indo-Pacific region. Gillard met with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Wednesday. High on the agenda was progress towards Australian uranium sales to India, Continue reading
Australia’s hypocrisy in planning uranium exports to India
If we really want to assist Indian communities who currently lack access to electricity – and we should – it would be far more effective to prioritise exporting Australian expertise in regional renewable energy systems.
the admission this week from India’s own auditor that the country’s nuclear industry is “dangerously unsafe, disorganised and, in many cases, completely unregulated” – only compounds concerns.
When Australian uranium leaves our waters it effectively disappears from the radar. This is a profound concern for a fuel that can power either nuclear reactors or nuclear weapons. High-level Indian officials have stated that they need to source uranium from overseas in order to free up their own uranium for military purposes
No smooth passage to India for Australian uranium http://www.abc.net.au/environment/articles/2012/10/18/3612800.htm DAVE SWEENEY, ABC 18 OCT 2012 PRIME MINISTER JULIA GILLARD is in India this week and amid the staged handshakes and solemn exchanges of signed papers. The uranium sales plan is being heavily promoted. But there is growing concern both here and in India about the implications of the move and the fast-tracking of nuclear-armed India into the global atomic club.
No doubt Julia Gillard will be employing the age-old tactic of highlighting a problem that no reasonable person could ignore and then seeking to ‘own’ the solution. Proponents of the sales deal point to the estimated 200 million Indians who do not have reliable access to electricity as a rationale for the sales deal. But to link Australian yellowcake with lights and cookers in remote Indian villages is to draw a very long bow. Continue reading
Australian exports of uranium to India not likely to happen for years
India’s much trumpeted nuclear reactor construction binge has fizzled out… in the next five years we should not expect any shipments from Australia.
The India-US nuclear deal had one aspect of tacit proliferation built into its structure – the horizontal proliferation of knowledge from the civilian to the military
As a result while all kinds of water-tight restrictions were placed on the transfer of materials and power, none was placed on the movement of scientists. This of course was well known, the point was to acquire French reprocessing technology – ostensibly for civilian purposes but then to duplicate the same to improve India’s reportedly dismal weapons material reprocessing.
The scary state of Indian reactors, their safety and security has long been whispered about – but was blown apart by the CAG’s indictment a few months back.
Julia’s Nuclear Tango – Analysis http://www.eurasiareview.com/18102012-julias-nuclear-tango-analysis/
IPCS October 18, 2012 By Abhijit Iyer‐Mitra As expected, nuclear negotiations took centre stage during Australian
Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s visit to Delhi. Much talk of cultural links owing to the English language, cricket, a Westminster style parliament was bandied about. While Australia insists on a multifaceted engagement to build deep interdependencies, India sees only its one point agenda in all of this and has held ties hostage to the supply of Uranium. While opinions in Delhi seem optimistic many factors point to need for a hard reality check. Continue reading
Farce of Australia’s uranium deal, and award to Indian cricketer
Cricketism has brought India closer to Australia and nuclear grey deals brought them still closer and the announcement by a silly Australian PM to offer the nation’s prestigious awards to foreigners, especially in cricketism exercises. India needs Australian uranium for nuclear terror purposes
Mutual exchange of honorary degrees and awards are very common, like street robberies, in international politics for the promotion of trade in arms and nukes stuff.
Russians supply India nuclear stuff and Australians offer awards.
Why should the Indian regime of corporates and mafias kill people in Kudankulam?
India’s Archons bribes Australia for awards — Cricketism, The Canadian 18 OCTOBER 2012 BY DR. ABDUL RUFF ” …….Madam Gillard arrived in India after a surprise trip to Afghanistan had meetings with business leaders and their protector Singh in Delhi. Indian nuclear mafia abroad is doing well.
Australia’s ruling centre-left Labor party voted to overturn its ban on uranium sales to India last year after a long debate about nuclear weapons and reactor safety following Japan’s atomic crisis. Continue reading
North Korea claims it can strike USA with nuclear missiles
North Korea says missiles can strike US Radio Australia 9 October 2012, North Korea says it possesses “strategic rocket forces” capable of striking the US mainland. The statement comes in response to a new US-South Korean deal to extend the range of the South’s missile systems. Continue reading
Thailand’s anxiety over Cambodia’s nuclear power plans
Army chief expresses worry over Cambodia nuclear plan http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/316243/army-chief-expresses-worry-over-cambodia-nuclear-plan 10/10/2012 Army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha has expressed concern over Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen’s plan to build a nuclear power plant in Cambodia’s Koh Kong province adjacent to Thailand’s Trat province. Continue reading
Drone may have been heading for Israel’s Dimona nuclear reactor
Route of Drone Hints It May Have Been Aimed at Nuclear Reactor The strange route of the enemy drone downed by the IAF indicates Israel may have diverted it from flying over the Dimona nuclear reactor. Arutz Sheva By Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu 10/7/2012,
The enemy drone downed by the Air Force, Saturday, took a strange route that did not cover strategic sites, indicating Israel may have diverted it from a route over the nuclear reactor in Dimona, located due east of Gaza.
The UAV entered Israeli air space from the Mediterranean Sea along the Gaza Coast and then made a U-turn, flying over the southern Hevron Hills before an F-16 plane destroyed it over a non-populated area.
The route raises questions because there are no army or air force bases or any other strategic sites along the route.
Officials estimate that it was guided by a pre-programmed GPS inside the drone and not from a control center at its origin, apparently Hizbullah-dominated southern Lebanon, DEBKA File reported. Israel may have carried out a cyber attack to scramble the GPS and change its route….. http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/160604#.UHMZH5jA9dM
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