nuclear-news

The News That Matters about the Nuclear Industry Fukushima Chernobyl Mayak Three Mile Island Atomic Testing Radiation Isotope

Sanctions and diplomacy a much wiser action than attacking Iran

open nuclear war between Israel and Iran is very unlikely. Israel knows that the consequences would be grave and in Iran’s case, the regime knows that it would result in their demise.

Iraq’s fledgling democracy is also likely to be negatively affected by war with Iran. And Saudi Arabia is also likely to be targeted, too. Syria may need to crackdown even more repressively on its internal protesters in order to support Iran.

 there is no guarantee that an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites would eliminate all of Iran’s nuclear sites,

war with Iran is likely going to unite the people behind an unpopular government. This should be avoided.

 


The Standoff With Iran: Challenges and Options
, Huffington Post,    PAUL HEROUX  , 31 Dec 11
 War is said to be the result of political failure. The tense standoff with Iran is heating up again since Iran has threatened to shot down the 34-mile-wide Strait of Hormuz. 15 million barrels of oil are shipped through the Strait every day, which makes up about 1/3 of the world’s sea shipped oil.

According to Trita Parsi, an expert on Iran, cutting off ability to sell oil through blunt sanctioning Iran’s Central Bank is not only unlikely to increase world oil prices and hurt a fragile and recovering economy, it would have the perverse effect of encouraging Iran to cut off the Strait.

As it stands now, cutting off the Strait would limit Iran’s ability to ship oil but if sanctions on the Central Bank are going to do this anyway, there is little additional harm done to Iran by shutting down the Straits.

Regional Neighbors

There is perhaps no country more concerned about Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon than Israel. Iranian President Ahmadineajad said that Israel should be “wiped off the face of the map”; this is serious and cannot be taken lightly. But open nuclear war between Israel and Iran is very unlikely. Israel knows that the consequences would be grave and in Iran’s case, the regime knows that it would result in their demise. But open nuclear war with Iran is not Israel’s only concern. There exists the threat of coercion and terrorism.

Iran’s relationship with Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations is reason for concern;…..

Iraq’s fledgling democracy is also likely to be negatively affected by war with Iran. And Saudi Arabia is also likely to be targeted, too. Syria may need to crackdown even more repressively on its internal protesters in order to support Iran.

Options

Sanctions have been the main weapon of choice in trying to deter Iran from pursuing a nuclear capacity. Iran declares that sanctions are a violation of their sovereignty since they insist that their nuclear program is for peaceful energy purposes, a point that the IAEA and much of the world community believes is disingenuous.

Complicating the issue could be that attacking Iran’s known nuclear sites may well provide Iran with the justification to openly declare a nuclear weapon program — the argument could be made that the international community would never again attack a country with nuclear weapons, but this is a claim that Iran could be internally considering at present as a means of deterrence. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites would eliminate all of Iran’s nuclear sites, only known sites can be targeted, and second, there is no way to eliminate Iran’s base of knowledge on how to build nuclear weapons, something that Iran has not yet done…….

Least Worst Option

There are no good single option to resolve this stand off. However, there is another way and that involves a combination of sanctions and diplomacy……. There is hope in Iran. The people of Iran have peaceful intentions; they do not want war, and they do not like their government. This is a point of leverage that international community can use. But Iran is a very nationalistic country and war with Iran is likely going to unite the people behind an unpopular government. This should be avoided.

PAUL HEROUX previously lived and worked in the Middle East and was a senior analyst at theInstitute for Defense and Disarment Studies. He has a masters in International Relations from theLondon School of Economics and a Master’s from the Harvard School of Government. Paul can be reached at PaulHeroux.MPA@gmail.com   http://www.huffingtonpost.com/paul-heroux/the-standoff-with-iran-ch_b_1176423.html

Advertisement

December 31, 2011 - Posted by | Iran, politics international, weapons and war

No comments yet.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

%d bloggers like this: