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Donald Trump plays with possible nuclear crisis in Iran

January 9, 2020 Posted by | Iran, politics international, USA | 1 Comment

Trump urges Britain, Germany, France, Russia and China to dump the Iran nuclear deal

Trump urges dumping of Iran nuclear deal, news.com.au, 9 Jan 2020, 
The decision by the UK and other signatories to try to maintain the Iran nuclear deal has been criticised by US President Trump. 
 US President Donald Trump has called on the world’s major powers to abandon the “defective” Iran nuclear deal.

Trump said the “time has come” for Britain, Germany, France, Russia and China to dump the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Under the deal, Iran agreed to limit its nuclear programme and allow in international inspectors in return for the easing of economic sanctions.

But at a White House press conference on Wednesday, in which he gave his reaction to the overnight Iranian attacks on air bases housing US forces in Iraq, Trump said the “very defective JCPOA expires shortly anyway and gives Iran a clear and quick path to nuclear breakout”.

Trump said the US would immediately impose “additional punishing economic sanctions” on Tehran until Iran changes its behaviour,” citing the nuclear programme.

Since Trump pulled out of the deal in 2018 and started a “maximum pressure” campaign of sanctions against Iran, tensions have steadily escalated.

“Iran must abandon its nuclear ambitions and end its support for terrorism. The time has come for the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Russia and China to recognise this reality,” the President added.

“They must now break away from the remnants of the Iran deal – or JCPOA – and we must all work together towards making a deal with Iran that makes the world a safer and more peaceful place.”

However, just hours before Trump’s remarks, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the deal remains the “best way of preventing nuclear proliferation in Iran. https://www.news.com.au/world/breaking-news/trump-urges-dumping-of-iran-nuclear-deal/news-story/535d6f4704348e8ebac6f0e96f45403c

January 9, 2020 Posted by | politics international, USA, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Don’t Worry About Iranian Nukes Anytime Soon, Nuclear Experts Say

Don’t Worry About Iranian Nukes Anytime Soon, Nuclear Experts Say“I see no signs of Iran rushing to build a bomb, and doing so would almost certainly not be in their best interest,” said one expert. BuzzFeed News, Dan Vergano, 7  Jan 2020,

Iran’s announcement that it would be abandoning the last remaining restrictions placed on the country under a landmark nuclear arms limitation agreement doesn’t mean it will soon have nukes, arms control experts told BuzzFeed News.

“Is this a sign that Iran is racing toward a bomb? Absolutely not,” nuclear nonproliferation expert Corey Hinderstein of the Nuclear Threat Initiative told BuzzFeed News. “We are not seeing behavior that points in that direction.”

The Iranian government on Sunday announced it was walking away from limits on centrifuges — high-speed spinning machines that separate out weapons-quality uranium — agreed to in 2015 and endorsed by the United Nations Security Council. The move came after the US killing of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani on Friday, in an airstrike at Baghdad’s airport. On Tuesday, Iranian state television said Tehran had launched “tens” of missiles at Iraq’s Al Asad air base, which houses US troops, in retaliation.

“The Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear program no longer faces any operational restrictions,” Sunday’s statement from Iran’s official news service said. “From here on, Iran’s nuclear program will be developed solely based on its technical needs.”

Along with an outburst of World War III memes, the announcement triggered an all-caps response from President Donald Trump, stating that Iran would never have nuclear weapons……. https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/danvergano/iran-nuclear-bomb-uranium-soleimani

January 9, 2020 Posted by | Iran, politics international, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Trump’s unpredictability on Iran adds to weapons proliferation dangers

Trump’s unpredictability is making nuclear-nonproliferation advocates nervous as the US takes an aggressive posture against Iran, Business Insider, DAVE MOSHER, JAN 8, 2020, 

  • Tensions between Iran and the US have escalated dramatically in recent weeks, most notably with President Donald Trump ordering the assassination of Iranian Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani.
  • Trump has vowed potentially disproportionate attacks against Iran if the country retaliates against Americans.
  • Nuclear-weapons experts aren’t immediately concerned about a “tactical” (or limited) nuclear strike against Iranian targets, but they said Trump as president made it a much likelier possibility.
  • If the US or its allies used even one nuclear weapon in combat, it would end a 75-year streak of nonuse, with global and lasting consequences.
  • “It’s possible people around the world will get together to ban these things. But I think the reality is that we’d see nuclear weapons used not on a frequent basis, but on a more regular basis,” one researcher said…… https://www.businessinsider.com.au/trump-iran-attack-tactical-nuclear-weapons-war-consequences-2020-1?r=US&IR=T

January 9, 2020 Posted by | politics international, USA, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Iran pulling out of nuclear deal commitment after U.S. strike that killed Soleimani 

Iran pulling out of nuclear deal commitment after U.S. strike that killed Soleimani   https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/iran-pulling-out-nuclear-deal-following-u-s-strike-killed-n1110636  

State TV reported Iran will no longer restrict uranium enrichment, part of the 2015 deal limiting the country’s nuclear program in exchange for easing sanctions. Jan. 6, 2020, By Max Burman and The Associated Press

Iran said Sunday that it was ending its commitment to limit enrichment of uranium as part of its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, more fallout from the U.S. strike that killed Gen. Qassem Soleimani.

President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the deal in May 2018, renewing tensions between the two countries that reached new heights after Friday’s air strike.

Iran’s state television reported Sunday that it will no longer abide by the limits of the deal, which restricted nuclear development in exchange for the easing of crippling economic sanctions.

The agreement placed limits on Tehran’s uranium enrichment, the amount of stockpiled enriched uranium as well as research and development in its nuclear activities.

America’s European allies have attempted to salvage the deal despite Trump’s decision to withdraw and reimpose sanctions, but Iran has gradually reduced its commitments and now leaves the deal in tatters.

The country’s foreign ministry said earlier Sunday that recent events meant it would take an even bigger step away from the deal than initially planned.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif confirmed the news on Twitter, stating that there “will no longer be any restriction on number of centrifuges.”

“This step is within JCPOA & all 5 steps are reversible upon EFFECTIVE implementation of reciprocal obligations,” Zarif said.

The foreign minister added that the country will still cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency.

January 6, 2020 Posted by | Iran, politics international | 1 Comment

Complex and tortured history of Iran and nuclear weapons debate

 

January 6, 2020 Posted by | Iran, politics international, weapons and war | Leave a comment

For the 29th consecutive year, India and Pakistan exchange lists of nuclear facilities

India, Pakistan exchange list of nuclear installations, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/india-pakistan-exchange-list-of-nuclear-installations/articleshow/73056333.cms

The two countries exchanged the list of nuclear installations and facilities covered under the Agreement on the Prohibition of Attack against Nuclear Installations between India and Pakistan, the External Affairs Ministry said. This was done simultaneously through diplomatic channels in New Delhi and Islamabad.

NEW DELHI: Continuing a 29-year unbroken practice, India and Pakistan on Wednesday exchanged a list of their nuclear installations under a bilateral arrangement that prohibits them from attacking each other’s atomic facilities.

The two countries exchanged the list of nuclear installations and facilities covered under the Agreement on the Prohibition of Attack against Nuclear Installations between India and Pakistan, the External Affairs Ministry said.

This was done simultaneously through diplomatic channels in New Delhi and Islamabad.

The exchange of the list came amid tense diplomatic ties between the two countries over the Kashmir issue

The pact mandates the two countries to inform each other of nuclear installations and facilities to be covered under the agreement on the first of January of every calendar year.
This is the 29th consecutive exchange of the list with the first one taking place on January 1, 1992.

January 6, 2020 Posted by | India, Pakistan, politics international | Leave a comment

UK govt trying to finance new nuclear plants, – complicated relations with China and USA

Telegraph 5th Jan 2020, The Government may face a meltdown in relations with Beijing or the US depending on the energy choices it makes as it powers to a low carbon future.
The end of 2019 marks yet another year that has passed since EDF
boss Vincent de Rivaz ill-advisedly said that customers would be using
electricity from the planned Hinkley Point C power plant to cook their
Christmas turkeys by 2017. Two years on from that self-imposed deadline,
the £21bn nuclear power station is still being built over a sprawling site
in the Somerset countryside – while the very future of nuclear power in
the UK is up for debate as other sources of energy snap at its heels and
investment in the sector gets harder to find.
A decision on a make-or-break new financing model for the industry is high on Boris Johnson’s new government’s priority list, with ministers under pressure from industry to make decisions quickly –
Yet the decision about the financing models will be taken against a
backdrop of wariness about the source of potential investments:
state-backed China General Nuclear (CGN) is one of few investors willing to
pour money into the risky nuclear sector – but the communist
superpower’s involvement has brought political and security concerns as
well as opposition from the US.
CGN arrived in the UK through its partnership with EDF to develop Hinkley Point C as well as possibly Sizewell C in Suffolk, but are also seeking approval to build their own HPR 1000 reactor at Bradwell B in Essex – which it hopes to use as a stepping stone to the rest of the world. Approval from the UK’s highly-regarded nuclear safety standards authorities would be a boost as it looks for other global customers.
China’s involvement in the UK nuclear industry has been
beset by controversy, with Theresa May, the former prime minister,
reversing George Osborne’s courting of China in 2016 when she ordered a
review of China’s involvement in the UK’s nuclear industry, amid
concerns about national security.
China remains on a US blacklist which effectively prevents US companies from supplying CGN, in response to the conviction in the US in 2017 of a CGN worker for trying to steal sensitive information about US nuclear capabilities.
Tensions between the nations are de-escalating with the first phase of a trade deal due to be signed on Jan 31, but analysts do not expect it to be the end of the row. The UK has been walking a delicate balancing act, but that is likely to reach a tipping point soon, with decisions on energy needed just as the UK seeks to reshape global alliances and trade deals after it leaves the EU on Jan 31, and is likely to seek trade deals with both the US and China. Backers of CGN and many in the nuclear industry believe any concerns are overblown, arguing that operating procedures would insulate plants from any undue influence and cybersecurity concerns. Aware of the sensitivities, CGN has suggested it does not need to operate Bradwell, the mooted power plant that would useits own reactor technology. Ministers are due to respond soon to a
consultation opened in the summer on the potential new financing mechanism for nuclear power plants which will see consumers pay for nuclear power plants before they start producing, in an attempt to bring down the costs of financing.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/01/05/britain-heading-fallout-nuclear-conundrum/

January 6, 2020 Posted by | politics, politics international, UK | Leave a comment

Suleimani’s Gone, and the Iran Nuclear Deal May Be Next

Suleimani’s Gone, and the Iran Nuclear Deal May Be Next
Europe fears that its faltering efforts to preserve the 2015 pact have been dealt a fatal blow with the United States’ killing of a top Iranian commander. NYT,  By Steven Erlanger, Jan. 3, 2020

    • BRUSSELS — How Iran will respond to the American assassination of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani remains a matter of speculation, but one outcome seems almost certain: the end of Europe’s long effort to keep the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal alive.

In interviews on Friday, European analysts envisioned a number of baleful results from the killing of the general, who was a national hero and potential political leader in Iran, and whose death Tehran has vowed to avenge.

Among those were the downgrading of diplomacy, the destabilization of Iraq and the further strengthening of Iran’s hard-liners and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

But the more immediate threat, they said, was to the nuclear deal negotiated by President Barack Obama in 2015…… https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/03/world/europe/soleimani-iran-nuclear.html

January 6, 2020 Posted by | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

Prime Minister Netanyahu almost blew the secret of Israel’s nuclear arsenal

January 6, 2020 Posted by | politics international, weapons and war | Leave a comment

The escalation of nuclear tension between USA and Iran

Timeline: How tensions escalated with Iran since Trump withdrew US from nuclear deal

President Trump’s decision to leave the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran was followed by an escalation of rhetoric, sanctions and attacks between the countries.    George Petras, Jim Sergent, Janet Loehrke, Karl Gelles and Javier Zarracina, USA TODAY, 3 Jan 2020, 

July 25, 2015

Iran, the United States and other nations approve a deal in which Iran agrees to shift its nuclear program from weapons production to peaceful commercial use for 10 years. Iran allows international inspectors on its nuclear weapons sites.

In exchange, the United States and the United Nations Security Council lift energy, trade, technology and financial sanctions against Iran.

The pact, established during the tenure of President Barack Obama, is an executive agreement, not a treaty, which means it isn’t formally approved by Congress. Republicans oppose the deal and question its legality.

Leaving the deal

October 2016

Presidential candidate Donald Trump says Iran should write the United States a thank you letter for “the stupidest deal of all time.” Trump says the United States will withdraw from the deal if he’s elected.

May 8, 2018

President Trump announces the withdrawal from the Iran deal. Iran, France, Britain and Germany say they will stay in the pact.

US increases pressure

U.S.-Iran relationship status: It’s complicated
The United States and Iran have been lobbing threats, fighting proxy wars, and imposing sanctions for decades. USA Today looks at over 60 years of this back-and-forth.
JUST THE FAQS, USA TODAY

August-November 2018

The United States reimposes economic sanctions targeting Iran’s energy, financial, shipping and shipbuilding industries. Iran says it will take unspecified actions regarding the nuclear deal if Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China don’t help it engage in international trade.

April 8, 2019

Trump says he will designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards as a foreign terrorist organization. The Pentagon opposes the change, saying it increases the possibility of retaliation against American military and intelligence personnel.

April 22

May 5

John Bolton, Trump’s national security adviser, says the United States will send an aircraft carrier strike force and Air Force bombers to the Middle East. The deployment shows Iran that “any attack on United States interests or on those of our allies will be met with unrelenting force.”

Iran retaliates

May 8

Iran says it will increase its production of enriched uranium and heavy water.

May 12

Four oil tankers – two from Saudi Arabia, one from the United Arab Emirates and one from Norway – are attacked in the Persian Gulf. The United States says Iran is behind the attacks.

June 13

Two oil tankers – one from Norway, the other from Japan – are attacked in the Gulf of Oman. The United States blames Iran, which denies responsibility.

June 20

Iran shoots down a U.S. surveillance drone it says violated Iranian airspace. The U.S. Central Command says the aircraft was in international territory.

June 20

Trump orders retaliatory attacks against Iran but cancels the strikes shortly before they are to be launched. Four days later, he imposes more sanctions against Iran.

July 1

Iran says it’s exceeded the amount of low-enriched uranium it was allowed to build under the 2015 agreement.

US-Iranian tensions rise………

Jan. 2   2020

Iranian military leader Qasem Soleimani and five others are killed in a U.S. drone strike at Baghdad airport. U.S. officials call it a “defensive action,” saying Soleimani planned attacks on U.S. diplomats and troops. https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2020/01/03/us-iran-conflict-since-nuclear-deal/2803223001/

January 4, 2020 Posted by | Iran, politics international, USA | 1 Comment

Kim Jong Un May Be Leaving The Door Open To Nuclear Talks

Why North Korea’s Kim Jong Un May Be Leaving The Door Open To Nuclear Talks, January 1, 2020, ANTHONY KUHN

After keeping the world waiting and watching, first for a “Christmas present” to the U.S., and then for a New Year’s shift to a harder line on nuclear negotiations, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un delivered neither.

Some analysts believe a key reason behind his calculations may be President Trump’s prospects for surviving an impeachment process and possibly winning a second term in the White House.

“Donald Trump happens to be the first sitting U.S. president to view North Korea as a source of political victory, for domestic purposes,” says Go Myong-hyun, a research fellow and expert on North Korea at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, a Seoul-based think tank.

Pyongyang has said it has no intention of handing President Trump any victories on denuclearization, but officials see Trump’s eagerness to tout achievements to his domestic audience as a source of leverage.

In remarks carried by state media, Kim on Tuesday had plenty of tough words for the U.S. as he addressed a plenum of the ruling Workers Party Central Committee. He acknowledged the countries’ current stalemate on nuclear talks, but insisted he would not passively wait for things to improve……

Kim said Pyongyang had unilaterally halted nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile tests in order to build confidence with the U.S. And he appeared to leave the door open for concessions and further talks. ……

Prolonged stalemate likely

For now, analysts see a prolonged stalemate over North Korea’s nukes as all but inevitable……North Korea’s only remaining tool is nuclear brinksmanship — essentially bluffing opponents into thinking Pyongyang might actually use atomic weapons, even though it is plainly evident that the cost of doing so is prohibitive for both sides.

Fuhrmann’s theory has implications for policy: a nuclear-armed North Korea is not the apocalyptic event some fear, “even if we might prefer a situation where they were not to have nuclear weapons.”

He advises that a complete and verifiable nuclear disarmament is “somewhat unrealistic.” Better, he says, for the U.S. to “look for a deal that allows us to place meaningful limits on North Korean capabilities.”  https://www.npr.org/2020/01/01/792843551/north-korea-drops-testing-moratorium-but-leaves-door-open-to-u-s-nuclear-talks

January 2, 2020 Posted by | North Korea, politics international | Leave a comment

North Korea preparing for nuclear negotiations with USA

December 30, 2019 Posted by | North Korea, politics international | Leave a comment

European Union split on nuclear energy, but manages a draft Green Finance deal.

Green-finance deal survives EU split on nuclear energy. European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde has underlined the importance of the reform, with sustainable finance deals reaching one half a trillion dollars in 2018.

But the long-standing disagreement over nuclear energy has undermined the EU’s efforts to cut greenhouse emissions, with a promise last week by EU leaders for carbon neutrality by 2050 nearly scuppered by a feud over atomic energy.

https://www.khmertimeskh.com/50671303/green-finance-deal-survives-eu-split-on-nuclear-energy 23 Dec 19, EU negotiators have been struggling for weeks to finalise a harmonised classification system for green finance in Europe that could decide the fate of hundreds of billions of euros in investment.

The lobbying frenzy in Brussels over the new EU norm has been immense, with soon to Brexit Britain also making its voice heard while protecting the interests of the City of London financial hub.

“This is a historic moment… the much-needed enabler to get green investments to flow and help Europe reach climate neutrality by 2050,” said EU Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis.

Late on Monday, EU lawmakers approved an offer by member states that delayed the nuclear question – as well as the role of natural gas cherished by Berlin – until the end of 2021.

“I am fully aware that the nuclear problem will return in two years’ time. We pushed back the matter,” said the chairman of the European Parliament’s Environment Committee, French centrist MEP Pascal Canfin.

“The risk was to take the whole classification hostage,” he added.

Ever since the European Commission’s proposal was put on the table in May 2018, nuclear energy has been the subject of a huge fight between its supporters, led by France and backed by Eastern European countries.

But opponents of nuclear power – such as Germany, Austria, Luxembourg and Greece – have refused to back down, with domestic opinion fearing atomic energy disasters, such as Fukushima or Chernobyl.

The compromise suggested by Finland, which holds the EU’s rotating presidency, was reached with MEPs behind closed doors and needs final approval by member states envoys on Wednesday.

Once approved, the European Commission will then have two years to draw up detailed lists of sectors eligible for a Green finance label, based on the criteria.

December 28, 2019 Posted by | climate change, EUROPE, politics international | Leave a comment

Kim Jong Un refers to North Korea being ‘prepared’ for war, hinting at nuclear capabilities

December 28, 2019 Posted by | North Korea, politics international, weapons and war | Leave a comment