Iran and US both undermining nuclear deal says UN political affairs chief
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Iran and US both undermining nuclear deal says UN political affairs chief, UN News , 19 December 2019
Both Iran and the United States have been putting strain on the groundbreaking 2015 deal to monitor Iran’s nuclear programme, which remains a “cornerstone of international peace and security”, said the UN’s political affairs chief on Thursday. Rosemary DiCarlo was briefing the Security Council on nuclear non-proliferation, and resolution 2231 that specifically backed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), agreed in July 2015, by China, France, Germany, Russia, The United Kingdom, the United States, the European Union, and Iran (see fact box below for full details). She said the “full and effective implementation” of the Plan was “key to ensuring the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear programme and to secure tangible economic benefit to the Iranian people.” Ms. DiCarlo said the US decision to pull out of the deal was a source of “regret” as well as “the recent steps taken by Iran to reduce its nuclear-related commitments”. “Certain actions taken by the United States, since its withdrawal from the Plan, are contrary to the goals of the Plan”, she said and the re-imposition of its national sanctions lifted under the Plan, and decision not to extend waivers for the trade in oil with Iran. But according to the IAEA, she added, Iran since July “has surpassed JCPOA-stipulated limits on its uranium enrichment level, as well as limits on its stockpiles of heavy water and low-enriched uranium.” Steps have also been taken on centrifuge research and development: “Iran has stated that all these steps are reversible and that it intends to remain in the Plan. It is important that Iran returns to full implementation of the Plan, and refrain from further steps to reduce its commitments”, said the UN Political and Peacebuilding Affairs chief. Rising regional tensions…….Summing up the importance of the JCPOA, Ms DiCarlo said that António Guterres considers the full implementation of resolution 2231, by all Member States “as an integral component of our collective conflict prevention efforts.” Given the year of tension in the Gulf, “this has assumed greater importance” she noted, adding that it was the Secretary-General’s wish for all countries “to avoid confrontational actions and explore avenues for dialogue and cooperation in the interest of international peace and security.” https://news.un.org/en/story/2019/12/1054071 |
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Hazards of Russia’s nuclear colonialism- example South Africa
Africa, Russia squandered close ties with the South African government by overplaying its hand and getting caught up in a corrupt nuclear energy pact. Carnegie Endowment For International Peace (thoroughly researched and referenced) 16 Dec 19, SUMMARY
Amid the widespread attention the Kremlin’s recent inroads in Africa have attracted, there has been surprisingly little discussion of South Africa, a country which, for nearly a decade, unquestionably represented Russia’s biggest foreign policy success story on the continent. As relations soared during the ill-starred presidency of Jacob Zuma (2009–2018), the Kremlin sought to wrest a geopolitically significant state out of the West’s orbit and to create a partnership that could serve as a springboard for expanded influence elsewhere in Africa. Continue reading European Union’s sustainable finance debate bogged down in question of including nuclear power
 Nuclear power toxifies EU sustainable finance debate EU28 ambassadors meet on Monday morning to see if they can come up with a compromise that can keep all sides happy Mehreen Khan 15 Dec 19https://www.ft.com/content/f4ee6bfc-1fb2-11ea-b8a1-584213ee7b2b Nuclear power toxifies EU sustainable finance debate EU28 ambassadors meet on Monday morning to see if they can come up with a compromise that can keep all sides happy Share on Twitter (opens new window) Share on Facebook (opens new window) Share on LinkedIn (opens new window) Save Mehreen Khan YESTERDAY Agreeing on international climate deals is harder than it looks. Despite rising public pressure for policymakers to grapple with the challenge, marathon talks at the UN’s COP25 summit ended this weekend in failure. In what was the world’s longest ever climate negotiation (14 consecutive days), international delegates in Madrid failed to agree rules for how rich and poorer countries should construct a new global carbon trading market. The FT’s Leslie Hook dissects how the summit came to an inconclusive end and why the EU and environmental NGOs are lamenting the outcome.
The EU, which was part of the negotiations in Madrid, will be discouraged by the rancour over carbon trading permits — especially as Brussels is drawing up contentious plans to force third countries to pay a price for carbon it exports to the bloc.
Away from the UN talks, EU governments will have to face down their own green divisions on Monday when they meet to discuss much-anticipated market rules on sustainable finance products. Despite hopes for a deal before the end of the year, France and eastern European capitals last week demanded the rules make explicit to investors that nuclear energy is part of the EU’s journey towards carbon neutrality.
EU28 ambassadors meet on Monday morning to see if they can come up with a compromise that can keep all sides happy. Austria and Luxembourg have led the charge against giving a green-stamp to nuclear, with Germany also resisting over concerns about the environmental impact of nuclear waste.
While the EU has championed itself as a global leader in climate policy, Brussels has yet to prove whether it can “walk the talk” on green policy. The debate over the classification system (known as the “taxonomy”) is the new European Commission’s first real test.
Energy policy is a fiercely protected part of governments’ national powers. Divisions were laid bare in a tense leaders’ summit last week where member states ultimately failed to convince Poland to sign up to the bloc’s 2050 net zero carbon target. But in a triumph for France and its eastern allies, the summit conclusions gave an explicit nod to nuclear as “part of the energy mix” in some countries.
Diplomats think the summit agreement on nuclear should pave the way for pro-nuclear countries to win the argument over the taxonomy. Even if they do, another battle with MEPs lies ahead. Should ambassadors get a compromise on Monday, it still has to be agreed by the European Parliament, which has insisted on its “no” to nuclear.
Pascal Canfin, head of the EP’s environment committee and member of Emmanuel Macron’s En Marche, also held firm on the issue. He told the Brussels Briefing that EU governments should not “modify the balanced political compromise” agreed with MEPs earlier this month. “All parties know that it is the only deal that could have been reached. That’s why I’m confident we will get a formal endorsement this week,” said Mr Canfin.
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USA rejects North Korea’s ‘hostile’ deadline over nuclear talks
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Top US diplomat rejects North Korea’s ‘hostile’ deadline over nuclear talks and says Washington will not bow to Pyongyang’s ominous threat of a ‘Christmas Gift’ provocation,
By ROSS IBBETSON FOR MAILONLINE and AFP 17 Dec 19, A senior US diplomat has today slammed North Korea for making ‘hostile demands’ over nuclear talks and warned Kim Jong-un against his planned ‘Christmas Gift’ provocation. US special representative Stephen Biegun told reporters in Seoul that Washington would not bow to Pyongyang’s increasingly strident demands for concessions by 2020. ‘Let me be absolutely clear: The United States does not have a deadline. We are fully aware of the strong potential for North Korea to conduct a major provocation in the days ahead,’ Biegun said. ‘To say the least, such an action will be most unhelpful in achieving lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula.’….. Pyongyang has said that if Washington fails to make it an acceptable offer, it will adopt a so far unspecified ‘new way’. It has carried out a series of static tests at its Sohae rocket facility this month, after a number of weapons launches in recent weeks, some of them described as ballistic missiles by Japan and others – which Pyongyang is banned from testing under UN sanctions……Pyongyang has said that if Washington fails to make it an acceptable offer, it will adopt a so far unspecified ‘new way’. It has carried out a series of static tests at its Sohae rocket facility this month, after a number of weapons launches in recent weeks, some of them described as ballistic missiles by Japan and others – which Pyongyang is banned from testing under UN sanctions…https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7797205/Top-diplomat-rejects-North-Koreas-deadline-says-Washington-not-bow-threats.html |
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Turkey may shut US nuclear weapons base over sanctions threat
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Turkey may shut US nuclear weapons base over sanctions threat
The Turkey-US row is partly over Ankara’s military offensive in Syria targeting American-backed Kurdish forces. Sky News Sunday 15 December 2019 Turkey’s leader says his country could close two military installations where American troops are stationed “if necessary”. One of the sites, called the Incirlik air base, is where some US nuclear warheads are kept. The other is the Kurecik radar station.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke in response to a threat of American sanctions over Ankara’s military offensive in Syria targeting US-backed Kurdish forces. His comments also followed a US senate resolution over Armenian claims about mass killings a century ago – a move which has further increased tensions between Ankara and Washington……. The Incirlik air base, located about 100 miles from Turkey’s border with Syria, is often referred to as one of the major strategically located US military bases. The Kurecik radar station hosts NATO’s early-warning radar systems against ballistic missile attacks. https://news.sky.com/story/turkey-may-shut-us-nuclear-weapons-base-over-sanctions-threat-11887811 |
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Marathon UN climate talks have a rather disappointing outcome
Disappointment as marathon climate talks end with slim deal. AP News, By FRANK JORDANS and ARITZ PARRA,MADRID (AP) 15 Dec 19, — Marathon U.N. climate talks ended Sunday with a slim compromise that sparked widespread disappointment, after major polluters resisted calls for ramping up efforts to keep global warming at bay and negotiators postponed debate about rules for international carbon markets for another year.
Organizers kept delegates from almost 200 nations in Madrid far beyond Friday’s scheduled close of the two-week talks. In the end, negotiators endorsed a general call for greater efforts to tackle climate change and several measures to help poor countries respond and adapt to its impacts.
U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said he was “disappointed” by the meeting’s outcome.
“The international community lost an important opportunity to show increased ambition on mitigation, adaptation and finance to tackle the climate crisis,” he said. “We must not give up and I will not give up.”
The final declaration cited an “urgent need” to cut planet-heating greenhouse gases in line with the goals of the landmark 2015 Paris climate change accord. But it fell far short of explicitly demanding that countries submit bolder emissions proposals next year, which developing countries and environmentalists had demanded……
Thankfully, the weak rules on a market-based mechanism, promoted by Brazil and Australia, that would have undermined efforts to reduce emissions, have been shelved,” said Mohamed Adow, director of Nairobi-based campaign group Power Shift Africa.
Helen Mountford, from the environmental think-tank World Resources Institute, said that “given the high risks of loopholes discussed in Madrid, it was better to delay than accept rules that would have compromised the integrity of the Paris Agreement.”…….
Delegates made some progress on financial aid for poor countries affected by climate change, despite strong resistance from the United States to any clause holding big polluters liable for the damage caused by their emissions. Countries agreed four years ago to funnel $100 billion per year by 2020 to assist developing nations, but so far nowhere near that amount has been raised. …..
The United States will be excluded from much of those talks after President Donald Trump announced the country’s withdrawal from the Paris accord, a process than comes into force Nov. 4, 2020……. https://apnews.com/aca79ab4956f370b8892ba574fe56834
EU heads of state and government agreed that nuclear energy will be recognized as a way to fight climate change
EU leaders include nuclear energy in green transition, By SAMUEL PETREQUIN, Associated Press Dec. 13, 2019 BRUSSELS (AP) — European Union leaders agreed Friday that nuclear energy will be part of the bloc’s solution to making its economy carbon neutral by 2050, allowing them to win the support of two coal-dependent countries.
EU heads of state and government agreed that nuclear energy will be recognized as a way to fight climate change as part of a deal that endorsed the climate target. While Poland did not immediately agree to the plan, the concessions on nuclear energy were enough for the Czech Republic and Hungary to give their approval…….. (subscribers only) https://www.sfchronicle.com/news/world/article/EU-leaders-include-nuclear-energy-in-green-14904378.php
Sound the alarm on deadly US-Russia nuclear threat
Sound the alarm on deadly US-Russia nuclear threat, by Jill Dougherty December 12, 2019 CNN, As I looked around the large square conference table, I watched the faces settle into worried frowns. Russians and Americans, several of whom once had responsibility for their nations’ nuclear weapons, all members of the Dartmouth Conference, the oldest continual bi-lateral dialogue between Americans and Russians, founded almost 60 years ago during one of the darkest periods of the Cold War.
Israel’s Foreign Minister Israel Katz suggests bombing Iran to stop its nuclear program
 FM: Bombing Iran to stop its nuclear program remains ‘an option’
Speaking with Italian media on the sidelines of a foreign policy conference in Rome, Israel Katz rebukes European leaders for not taking a more aggressive stand against Tehran. Iranian FM accuses Israel of testing nuclear missile aimed at his country. Israel Hayom 12-08-2019 The option to launch a preemptive strike against Iran to prevent it from developing a nuclear weapon remains viable, Foreign Minister Israel Katz said in an interview Saturday. Speaking with Italian-language daily Corriere della Sera, Katz – asked whether Israel was mulling military options vis-à-vis the Islamic republic – said, “Yes, it is an option. We will not allow Iran to produce or obtain nuclear weapons. If it were the last possible way to stop this, we would act militarily.” The comments were reportedly made on the sidelines of a foreign policy conference in Rome. They came just hours after Iran announced its ready to unveil a “new generation” of nuclear-related “products,” including new centrifuge systems and a heavy water power plant scheduled to be built by the spring of 2020. Katz further admonished European leaders for not taking a more aggressive stand against Iran over its repeated, escalating violations of the 2015 nuclear deal…… On Friday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif accused Israel of holding “a nuclear missile test aimed at Iran.” “Israel today tested a nuke-missile, aimed at Iran,” Zarif said on Twitter, adding that the United States, Germany, France and the United Kingdom “never complain about the only nuclear arsenal in West Asia – armed with missiles actually DESIGNED to be capable of carrying nukes – but has fits of apoplexy over our conventional & defensive ones.” The Israeli defense establishment successfully tested a rocket propulsion system on Friday. Defense officials stressed that the test was planned in advance and carried out as planned. https://www.israelhayom.com/2019/12/08/fm-bombing-iran-to-stop-its-nuclear-program-remains-an-option/ |
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Britain, France, and Germany press Iran over its ballistic missile program
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Europeans Ramp up Pressure on Iran, Britain, France, and Germany say Iran’s ballistic missile program is inconsistent with the nuclear deal and improves its capacity to deliver nuclear payload. Tehran counters that Europeans have failed to meet obligations under the pact. FP.com,
BY COLUM LYNCH
DECEMBER 6, 2019, Three key European powers this week inched closer to the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign against Iran, saying that Tehran’s ballistic missile program is inconsistent with its obligations under the Iran nuclear accord. Iran’s ballistic program—which was largely prohibited by the United Nations Security Council before the adoption of the Iran nuclear pact in 2015—has been a source of contention between Washington and Tehran. Under the terms of the agreement, Iran reserved the right to develop ballistic missiles for conventional warheads. But it pledged not to develop missiles capable of delivering a nuclear bomb. Under President Donald Trump, the United States—which pulled out of the nuclear deal in May 2018—maintains that Iran has been violating the spirit of the agreement by developing banned missile capabilities under the cover its conventional weapons program. The administration recently got a boost from Britain, France, and Germany, which signed a joint letter last month declaring that “Iran’s developments of nuclear-capable ballistic missiles and related technologies is inconsistent” with its obligations under a U.N. resolution that endorsed the nuclear accord. Foreign Policy is publishing the letter, which was made public by the United Nations earlier this week, as part of our Document of the Week series. The letter constituted the latest sign that key European powers—which remain committed to the nuclear pact—are seeking to shore up their relations with Washington and to chastise Tehran for what they view as its gradual retreat from its obligations under the nuclear pact. But Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, accused them of seeking to “cover up their miserable incompetence” in living up to their own obligations under the nuclear pact. If the United Kingdom, France, and Germany “want a modicum of global credibility, they can begin by exerting sovereignty rather than bowing to US bullying,” he said. The European powers assert that an Iranian launch of a Shahab-3 medium-range missile—which appeared footage posted on social media in April—included a booster that the Missile Technology Control Regime concluded is capable of delivering a nuclear weapon. The 35-member association of the world’s main missile producers urges restrictions on the export of nuclear missile technology……… https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/12/06/europe-iran-ramp-up-pressure-ballistic-missiles/ |
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Putin offers US to extend key nuclear pact
Putin offers US to extend key nuclear pact https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/putin-offers-us-to-extend-key-nuclear-pact/news-story/e88b576c31aaa9f2e81843b5f306dfc7. Associated Press, December 6, 2019 Russian President Vladimir Putin claims Moscow is prepared to immediately extend a pivotal nuclear arms reduction pact with the United States.
Speaking at Thursday’s meeting with military officials, Putin said that Russia has repeatedly offered the US to extend the New START treaty that expires in 2021 but as yet he hasn’t heard back.
“Russia is ready to extend the New START treaty immediately, before the year’s end and without any preconditions,” Putin said.
The pact, which was signed in 2010 by former President Barack Obama and then Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, limits each country to no more than 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and 700 deployed missiles and bombers.
Putin and other Russian officials have repeatedly voiced concern about Washington’s reluctance to discuss the treaty’s extension.
Chaos ahead in international relations due to Trump’s chaotic nuclear weapons policies
 Trump runs dangerous and chaotic approach toward nuclear weapons, https://thehill.com/opinion/international/472841-trump-runs-dangerous-and-chaotic-approach-toward-nuclear-weapons
BY LAURA KENNEDY, — 12/03/19 The decision to abruptly withdraw United States forces from Syria is one of the most recent dangerous illustrations of the flawed foreign policy of President Trump and the chaos it has generated abroad. As a diplomat who served for nearly 40 years and under seven presidents, I am aware of how these impulsive and undisciplined actions have left allies reeling with American interests hobbled. His approach toward nuclear weapons and arms control is similar, but with even graver possible consequences.
His nuclear agenda reflects the same pattern of alliance mismanagement, American unreliability, and chaotic decision making. Instead of bailing on bilateral and multilateral arms control efforts, the United States should preserve remaining treaties like the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty and the observation regime offered by the Open Skies Treaty, which promote our interests abroad and avoid introducing destabilizing and unnecessary nuclear weapons in a heated international competition. The Iran nuclear deal was the first nonproliferation agreement to be axed by Trump, followed by the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. By recklessly withdrawing from the successful limits imposed on the Iranian nuclear program, Trump undercut our reliability with some of our closest allies and raised global tensions. Withdrawing from the latter agreement rather than continuing efforts to resolve violations by Moscow has shifted the onus away from Russia while removing constraints. The insecurity from withdrawal of these agreements is exacerbated by the prospect of blowing up the other key foundations of our arms control architecture. Next may be the Open Skies Treaty. It is a useful transparency regime which was instituted by the United States and 33 other nations. The agreement allows these nations to conduct observation flyovers of the territories of each of the signatories, providing critical insight into military deployments and possible military buildups. While some might argue that new technology makes such flyovers unnecessary, that overlooks the advantage offered by the framework. It is difficult to ignore evidence when all states have access to the same intelligence. Leaving this deal would end those benefits, poorly serve Ukraine, and send yet another message to our allies and adversaries of our diplomatic unsteadiness. Such a counterproductive step would be massively compounded if the United States does not extend the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which caps American and Russian deployed strategic nuclear weapons and is set to expire in early 2021. The predictability, transparency, and access it provides is unparalleled.While some might argue that new technology makes such flyovers unnecessary, that overlooks the advantage offered by the framework. It is difficult to ignore evidence when all states have access to the same intelligence. Leaving this deal would end those benefits, poorly serve Ukraine, and send yet another message to our allies and adversaries of our diplomatic unsteadiness. Such a counterproductive step would be massively compounded if the United States does not extend the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which caps American and Russian deployed strategic nuclear weapons and is set to expire in early 2021. The predictability, transparency, and access it provides is unparalleled. Its regime of notifications, information exchange, and onsite inspections has been lauded on both sides of the aisle and by numerous military and civilian officials. In addition to losing this level of certainty on Russian strategic nuclear weapons, the United States could face an expensive and destabilizing arms race, beyond the major $1 trillion nuclear program already authorized by President Obama. In fact, the Trump administration has called for the development of a new “low yield” submarine launched ballistic missile deemed more “usable” for the military. Critics argue it would be difficult to distinguish from existing high yield variants and would increase the risk of nuclear miscalculation. The House has included a provision in the annual defense authorization bill earlier this year that prohibits the deployment of such a submarine weapon. As the conference negotiations continue, the Senate ought to recognize the risks of this unnecessary and destabilizing addition to our already massive nuclear arsenal and ensure it remains in the final bill. Russia and China indeed pose risks, and we must seek to have serious strategic dialogues with both. But as we pursue such talks, we should use them to build on existing agreements, most notably the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, and not scrap historical agreements in favor of a complex new effort to include additional weapons and actors such as China. Such a comprehensive deal, which the Trump administration says it is pursuing, would take years to negotiate. Russia does not believe there is time to negotiate a new arms control agreement prior to the expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, and China has emphatically rejected joining such a trilateral endeavor. Any potential negotiations are further complicated by the fact that the State Department has dumped its under secretary and assistant secretary in charge of arms control policy. When it comes to international agreements, ignoring legislative, military, and civilian expert advice and picking fights with American allies leads to chaos, frayed alliances, and increased instability, as we have witnessed in Syria, Ukraine, Turkey, and across the world. The United States simply cannot afford to let that happen when it comes to nuclear weapons. Laura Kennedy is a member of the board of directors of Foreign Policy for America. She served as United States permanent representative to the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva, was a diplomat for the United States Mission to International Organizations, and served as the deputy assistant secretary for European Affairs with the Department of State. |
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Rafael Mariano Grossi, new UN nuclear agency chief, states he will be“firm and fair” stance on Iran
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New UN nuclear agency chief: “firm and fair” stance on Iran , https://www.yahoo.com/news/argentina-grossi-cleared-helm-un-102125633.html 2 Dec 19, VIENNA (AP) — The incoming head of the U.N.’s atomic watchdog agency said Monday he will take a “firm and fair” approach toward inspections of Iran’s nuclear facilities, and plans to visit Tehran in the near future.Argentine diplomat Rafael Mariano Grossi’s comments came after he was confirmed as the new director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency unanimously at a special session. His four-year term begins on Tuesday.
The 58-year-old succeeds Yukiya Amano, who died in July, and takes over at a time when the nuclear deal between Iran and world powers is unraveling. The landmark 2015 deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action promised Iran economic incentives in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program. The IAEA’s role has been to inspect and verify Iran’s compliance with the deal. With the unilateral withdrawal of the United States from the agreement last year and the imposition of new American sanctions, Iran’s economy has been struggling. So far, the other nations involved — France, Germany, Britain, China and Russia — have been unable to offset the effects, and Iran has slowly been violating the terms of the JCPOA. Tehran is, however, continuing to provide IAEA inspectors access. Grossi told reporters he expected to travel to Iran himself in the “relatively near future” to meet with leaders there. “It is really a priority,” he said of the situation in Iran, adding that his philosophy on inspection safeguards was to be “firm and fair.” Those “two guiding principles” apply not just to Iran, but to how the IAEA deals with everybody, though “different cases demand different approaches,” he said. “An inspector is not a friend. He’s someone who comes and needs to ascertain the facts without bias, without agenda, in an objective and impartial way,” Grossi said. “This has to be done in firmness, but in fairness as well.” Grossi became Argentina’s ambassador to the Vienna-based IAEA in 2013 and was previously the IAEA’s chief of cabinet under Amano. |
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Nuclear Weapons: The Lies and Broken Promises
US Cover for Israel
Early in the morning of September 22, 1979, a US satellite recorded a double flash near the Prince Edward Islands in the South Atlantic. The satellite, a Vela 5B, carries a device called a “bhangmeter” whose purpose is to detect nuclear explosions. Sent into orbit following the signing of the Partial Test Ban Treaty in 1963, its job was to monitor any violations of the agreement. The treaty banned nuclear explosions in the atmosphere, underwater, and in space.
Nuclear explosions have a unique footprint. When the weapon detonates, it sends out an initial pulse of light. But as the fireball expands, it cools down for a few milliseconds, then spikes again.
“Nothing in nature produces such a double-humped light flash,” says Victor Gilinsky. “The spacing of the hump gives an indication of the amount of energy, or yield, released by the explosion.” Gilinsky was a member of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and a former Rand Corporation physicist.
From Carter onward, every US president has covered up the Israeli violation of the 1963 Partial Test Ban Treaty, as well as the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). So when Netanyahu says Iran is lying about its nuclear program, much of the rest of the world — i
ncluding the US nuclear establishment — roll their eyes.
Nuclear Apartheid
As for President Erdogan, he is perfectly correct that the nuclear powers have broken the promise they made back in 1968 when the signed the NPT. Article VI of that agreement calls for an end to the nuclear arms race and the abolition of nuclear weapons. Indeed, in many ways, Article VI is the heart of the NPT. Non-nuclear armed countries signed the agreement, only to find themselves locked into a system of “nuclear apartheid” — where they agreed not to acquire such weapons of mass destruction, while China, Russia, the United Kingdom, France and the US get to keep theirs.
The “big five” not only kept their weapons, but they are also all in the process of upgrading and expanding them. The US is meanwhile shedding other agreements, like the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Force Agreement. Washington is also getting ready to abandon the START treaty that limits the US and Russia to a set number of warheads and long-range strategic launchers.
What is amazing is that only four other countries have abandoned the NPT: Israel, North Korea, Pakistan and India (only the latter three have been sanctioned by the US). But that situation cannot hold forever, especially since part of Article VI calls for general disarmament, a pledge that has been honored in the breach. The US currently has nearly the largest defense budget in its history and spends as much on its military as 144 other countries combined……..
If the US were willing to cover up the 1979 Israeli test while sanctioning other countries that acquire nuclear weapons, why would anyone think that this is nothing more than hypocrisy on the subject of proliferation? And if the NPT is simply a device to ensure that other countries cannot defend themselves from other nations’ conventional and/or nuclear forces, why would anyone sign on or stay in the treaty?
Erdogan may be bluffing. He loves bombast and uses it effectively to keep his foes off balance. The threat may be a strategy for getting the US to back off on its support for Israel and Greece in their joint efforts to develop energy sources in the eastern Mediterranean Sea.
But Turkey also has security concerns. In his speech, Erdogan pointed out, “There is Israel just beside us. Do they have [nuclear weapons]? They do.” He went on to say that if Turkey did not respond to Israeli “bullying,” in the region, “we will face the prospect of losing our strategic superiority in the region.”
Iran may be lying about the scope of its nuclear ambitions — although there is no evidence that Tehran is making a serious run at producing a nuclear weapon — but if they are, they’re in good company with the Americans and the Israelis.
The Path to Sanity
Sooner or later, someone is going to set off one of those nukes. The likeliest candidates are India and Pakistan, although use by the US and China in the South China Sea is not out of the question. Neither is a dustup between NATO and Russia in the Baltic.
It is easy to blame the current resident of the White House for world tensions, except that the major nuclear powers have been ignoring their commitments on nuclear weapons and disarmament for over 50 years.
The path back to sanity is thorny but not impossible. First, the US should rejoin the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, thus making Russia’s medium-range missiles unnecessary, and reduce tensions between the US and China by withdrawing ABM systems from Japan and South Korea.
Second, the US should reinstate the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Agreement and find a way to bring China, India and Pakistan into it. That will require a general reduction of US military forces in Asia, coupled with an agreement with China to back off on its claims over most of the South China Sea. Tensions between India and Pakistan would be greatly reduced by simply fulfilling the UN pledge to hold a referendum in Kashmir. The latter would almost certainly vote for independence.
Third, the US must continue its adherence to the START agreement, while the “big five” countries need to halt the modernization of their existing arsenals — and begin, at long last, to implement Article VI of the NPT in regards to both nuclear and conventional forces.
Pie in the sky? Well, it beats a mushroom cloud.
Iran warns EU that it may step back from UN nuclear watchdog
Iran threatens to step back from UN nuclear watchdog
Tehran warns it will reconsider IAEA commitments if EU states trigger possible sanctions, Guardian, Patrick Wintour Diplomatic editor, Mon 2 Dec 2019
Iran has warned it may “seriously reconsider” its commitments to the UN atomic watchdog if European parties to a nuclear deal trigger a dispute mechanism that could lead to fresh sanctions.
The speaker for the Iranian parliament, Ali Larijani, told a press conference in Tehran on Sunday: “If they use the trigger [mechanism], Iran would be forced to seriously reconsider some of its commitments to the International Atomic Energy Agency. If they think doing so is more beneficial to them, they can go ahead.”
The threat to trigger sanctions has come after the Iranian government has taken a series of deliberate steps away from the 2015 nuclear deal, which it says are intended as a reprisal for Europe’s failure to deliver on commitments to boost trade.
Iran has also been frustrated by Europe’s refusal to defy the threat of US sanctions against any European company that trades with Iran.
A mechanism known as Instex developed by Europe to sidestep sanctions received a boost at the weekend when six more EU countries said they would join. Instex is a bartering system devised to avoid the reach of the US, but Iran is less interested in the number of EU countries signed up than the fact that no deals are being made under the mechanism. A mechanism known as Instex developed by Europe to sidestep sanctions received a boost at the weekend when six more EU countries said they would join. Instex is a bartering system devised to avoid the reach of the US, but Iran is less interested in the number of EU countries signed up than the fact that no deals are being made under the mechanism……. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/01/iran-threatens-to-step-back-from-un-nuclear-watchdog
1 This Month
26 April – Chernobyl: Inside the Meltdown airs on National Geographic on Sunday 26th April from 4pm
29 April – Nuclear Expert Webinar #1 – Radiation Impacts on Families with Mary Olson and Cindy Folkers
- 12:15 PM MT – 1:45 PM MT
- Location: Virtual – REGISTER TODAY
4 May -West Suburban Peace Coalition to discuss Iran war at May Educational Forum
Monday, May 4, 7:00 – 8:00 PM Central Standard Time
Title: : How Trump’s Narrative Tries to Shape the Reality of the War on Iran.
Contact Walt Zlotow, zlotow@hotmail.com 630 442 3045 for further information
14 May – online event From Bombs to Data Centres: the Face of Nuclear Colonialism
Pine Ridge Uranium is the real threat, not Tehran- Tell Burgum: Stop the Extraction.
Chernobyl: The Lost Tapes – A good documentary on Chernobyl on SBS available On Demand for the next 3 weeks– https://www.sbs.com.au/ondemand/tv-program/chernobyl-the-lost-tapes/2352741955560
To see nuclear-related stories in greater depth and intensity – go to https://nuclearinformation.wordpress.com
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