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New North Korean missile will prove a big diplomatic headache for US, expert warns

New North Korean missile will prove a big diplomatic headache for US, expert warns, 9 News, By Richard Wood • Senior JournalistOct 12, 2020  North Korea’s unveiling of a new intercontinental ballistic nuclear missile (ICBM) will impact global security in the months ahead, according to one expert.

The massive weapon was carried by an 11-axle truck during a military parade in the capital of Pyongyang to mark the 75th birthday of the isolated state’s ruling party on the weekend.
Malcolm Davis, senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, told Nine.com.au the display of the new ICBM shows that the Trump Administration’s talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un had failed……..  https://www.9news.com.au/world/north-korea-nuclear-missile-will-test-next-us-president/8c1ee861-4b14-47f9-93c4-e9466d06dfb9
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October 13, 2020 Posted by Christina Macpherson | North Korea, politics international, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Trump hoping to conclude nuclear arms deal with Russia before Election Day

Trump aiming for nuclear arms deal with Russia before Election Day.    Axios   Dave Lawler, author of World,  9 Oct 20,   The Trump administration is pushing to get a nuclear arms control agreement with Russia ready for President Trump and Vladimir Putin to apply their signatures before Election Day.

Where things stand: The U.S. believes the prospective deal has buy-in from Putin — who has discussed arms control on a series of phone calls with Trump — and could be negotiated in as little as a week, according to a source familiar with the discussions.

  • The Russians have not yet sounded such an optimistic note, or signaled they’re prepared to engage in such expedited negotiations.
  • The agreement would involve freezes on both countries’ stockpiles of nuclear warheads, as well as a framework for a future multilateral arms control treaty.

The big picture: Election day is not the only deadline driving this process. New START, the last major bilateral treaty limiting the nuclear arsenals of the U.S. and Russia, is due to expire on Feb. 5.

  • Putin wants to extend New START for five years. So does Joe Biden.
  • But Trump’s arms control envoy, Marshall Billingslea, has said the administration is only interested in extending New START — an Obama-era deal which the Trump administration has repeatedly criticized — in conjunction with a parallel agreement on the future of arms control.
  • Otherwise, he says, they’d be willing to see it lapse and gear up for a potential arms race.

The stakes: Russia knows that if Trump loses, it can expect Biden to agree to an extension shortly after taking office on Jan. 20.

  • But if Russia hasn’t agreed to a deal by election day and Trump wins, America’s asking price for New START extension will climb much higher, Billingslea told Russia’s Kommersant newspaper.
  • The other side: His Russian counterpart, Sergei Ryabkov, told WSJ last week that the U.S. position is a non-starter, and Russia is prepared to expand its own nuclear arsenal if New START expires.

The latest: That deadlock may have broken following a meeting in Geneva last Friday between National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien and his Russian counterpart, Nikolai Patrushev………..   https://www.axios.com/trump-russia-nuclear-arms-agreement-new-start-4fe42c37-83e0-4088-aa26-b37f8a07bf7f.html

October 12, 2020 Posted by Christina Macpherson | election USA 2020, politics international | 1 Comment

U.S. and Russian negotiators try tosalvage arms control pact

The National 11th Oct 2020, US and Russian negotiators have agreed in principle to continue freezing
their nuclear warhead stockpiles in a bid to salvage their last remaining
arms control pact before it expires next year, a source has said.

https://www.thenational.scot/news/18785398.us-russia-agree-freeze-nuke-stockpile/

October 12, 2020 Posted by Christina Macpherson | politics international, Russia, USA, weapons and war | Leave a comment

China backs Iran nuclear deal, calls for new MidEast forum

China backs Iran nuclear deal, calls for new MidEast forum Bangkok Post, : 11 OCT 2020 BEIJING: China’s foreign minister Wang Yi has called for a new forum to defuse tensions in the Middle East after a meeting with his Iranian counterpart where he reiterated Beijing’s support for Tehran.

Wang and Javid Zarif also reaffirmed their commitment to Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, according to the Chinese foreign ministry, an implicit rebuke of the United States for abandoning the accord during their Saturday meeting in China’s southwestern Tengchong city.

Iran has been locked in an acrimonious relationship with Saudi Arabia, the other major Middle Eastern power, over the war in Yemen, Iranian influence in Iraq and Saudi support for Washington’s sanctions on Tehran.

“China proposes to build a regional multilateral dialogue platform with equal participation of all stakeholders,” said the Chinese foreign ministry statement. …… https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/2000307/china-backs-iran-nuclear-deal-calls-for-new-mideast-forum

October 12, 2020 Posted by Christina Macpherson | China, Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

Kim Jong Un Set to Show Off Nuclear Advances in Message to Trump

Kim Jong Un Set to Show Off Nuclear Advances in Message to Trump, By Jon Herskovitz and Jeong-Ho Lee

10 October 2020,  North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is expected to hold his biggest military parade in at least two years and show off a nuclear arsenal that poses one of the most daunting security challenges for the winner of the U.S. presidential election.

The event — part of festivities Saturday to mark the 75th anniversary the Workers’ Party of Korea — could showcase the “new strategic weapon” Kim pledged to unveil at the start of the year. ….. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-09/kim-jong-un-set-to-show-off-nuclear-advances-in-message-to-trump

October 10, 2020 Posted by Christina Macpherson | North Korea, politics international, weapons and war | Leave a comment

USA-Russia talks continue on bid to salvage nuclear arms control agreement

US, Russia said close to deal on nuclear warhead freeze
U.S. and Russian negotiators have agreed in principle to freeze their nuclear warhead stockpiles in a bid to salvage their last remaining arms control pact before it expires next year

By MATTHEW LEE AP Diplomatic Writer, 10 October 2020, WASHINGTON — U.S. and Russian negotiators have agreed in principle to continue freezing their nuclear warhead stockpiles in a bid to salvage their last remaining arms control pact before it expires next that year, a person familiar with the talks said Friday.

The person said it’s not yet clear if the agreement for a freeze will succeed or translate into an extension of the New START treaty expires in February.

Word of a potential freeze comes as Trump is seeking foreign policy victories during a difficult reelection campaign against former Vice President Joe Biden, who has vowed to extend New START even without Chinese participation.

An announcement ahead of the election could raise eyebrows, coming as U.S. intelligence officials say Russia favors Trump and has been working to denigrate Biden…….

Russia has had a more skeptical view of the talks, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Monday accusing Washington of “unilateralism.” He said the New START treaty would likely cease to exist because the conditions the U.S. has put forward for extending it “don’t take into account our interests or the experience of many decades when arms control has existed to mutual satisfaction.”

Russian diplomats have repeatedly emphasized that Moscow considers the limits on launch platforms — missiles, bombers and submarines — much more important than the restrictions on the number of warheads. Russia likely would be unwilling to accept a separate freeze on the number of warheads unless it is part of a full-fledged deal.  https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/us-russia-close-deal-nuclear-warhead-freeze-73522231

October 10, 2020 Posted by Christina Macpherson | politics international, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Boukadoum: Algeria to ratify Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons “as soon as possible”

Boukadoum: Algeria to ratify Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons “as soon as possible”  http://www.aps.dz/en/algeria/36012-boukadoum-algeria-to-ratify-treaty-on-the-prohibition-of-nuclear-weapons-as-soon-as-possible

 05 October 2020  ALGIERS/NEW YORK (United Nations) – Foreign Minister Sabri Boukadoum reaffirmed Sunday during his participation in the works of the UN GA high-level meeting marking the celebration of the International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons, Algeria’s determination to ratify “as soon as possible” the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons

October 6, 2020 Posted by Christina Macpherson | AFRICA, politics international, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Pacific Island Nations determined to say NO to nuclear weapons, and support UN Treaty Ban

Pacific will continue to say no to nuclear weapons, UN told, https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/427663/pacific-will-continue-to-say-no-to-nuclear-weapons-un-told 5 Oct 20, Marking International Day Against Nuclear Explosions last weekend, the island nations agreed they had all suffered the effects of nuclear testing in the region.Presenting a joint statement from 12 Pacific countries to the United Nations General Assembly, Fiji’s Prime Minister said more than 300 nuclear tests were carried out in the Pacific from 1946 to 1996 – in the atmosphere, underground and underwater.

Frank Bainimarama told the online event communities living close to ‘ground zero’ were relocated from their ancestral homes and restricted from using the ocean resources for their livelihoods.

Mr Bainimarama says those impacted also faced an increase in related health problems.

“At the end of these nuclear tests, radioactive waste and machinery were either buried or dumped into the Pacific Ocean. Today, we still do not know the full impact of these nuclear tests on our environment and communities,” Frank Bainimarama said.

Bainimarama said Pacific islanders considered themselves the custodians of the vast blue Pacific Ocean.

“The Pacific Ocean defines who we are; it serves as the foundation of our economies, our environment, and the well-being of our communities,” he said.

“We have a vision that the blue Pacific Ocean will become an ocean of peace and prosperity for our people and the world.”

Bainimarama said protecting the blue Pacific continent was of paramount importance to the islanders’ future.

He said it could only become an ocean of peace if it was nuclear-free.

He said stopping the development of nuclear weapons and eliminating them altogether would free up much-needed global resources to assist vulnerable communities, and those around the world, in fighting the effects of climate change.

“The world does not need nuclear weapons,” Bainimarama said.

The challenges of nuclear disarmament can only be resolved by a strengthened multilateral system that sets the conditions for transparency, confidence-building, and co-operation.”

The Fijian leader said the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) were crucial if Pacific islands, which he refers to as PSIDS, were to further reduce and eliminate nuclear weapons.

“Today, we PSIDS say no to nuclear weapons and we reiterate our commitment to the elimination of nuclear weapons everywhere,” Bainimarama said.

“We encourage member states to ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW).

“It is morally right, and we owe it to ourselves and our future generations.”

The Fijian leader presented a joint statement to the UN Assembly from the PSIDS’ members including the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), Fiji, Kiribati, Nauru, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Marshall Islands, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu and Vanuatu.

Bainimarama said their statement was also aligned with the message sent by the Tuvalu Mission at the UN on behalf of the Pacific Islands Forum.

The online event was hosted by UN President Tijjani Muhammad-Bande from Nigeria.

October 6, 2020 Posted by Christina Macpherson | OCEANIA, politics international, weapons and war | Leave a comment

China-Saudi nuclear pact can trigger an arms race in West Asia

China-Saudi nuclear pact can trigger an arms race in West Asia.    Saudi Arabia’s acquisition of nuclear capability would draw Turkey and Egypt to join the regional nuclear race, which might turn conflict-torn West Asia even more volatile. The Print ADIL RASHEED 5 October, 2020 

At a time when the world was expecting Saudi Arabia to join the UAE and Bahrain in normalising relations with Israel, a noted British daily published a news story that has since raised Israeli concerns over the kingdom’s nascent nuclear programme.

On 17 September 2020, an article in The Guardian reported that Chinese geologists have prepared a report for Saudi Arabia — as part of their nuclear energy cooperation agreement — which names locations having large reserves of uranium ore in the kingdom that could be sufficient for its domestic production of nuclear fuel.

This news comes on the heels of an earlier Wall Street Journal report that the kingdom has also already constructed a facility with Chinese assistance for extracting uranium yellowcake from uranium ore, a major development in Riyadh’s avowedly peaceful nuclear programme. The report states that the facility is being built far away from the eastern borders close to Iran, with the help of two Chinese companies near the Saudi city of Ula, midway between Medina and Tabuk. ……..

By supporting Iran when it has restarted uranium enrichment and by helping Saudi Arabia extract and process its indigenous fissile raw material, Beijing seems to be setting up and weaponising the two arch-rivals of the Gulf, thereby catalysing a nuclear arms race in West Asia, so that US military is never able to pivot effectively to China’s backyard in the Indo-Pacific.  https://theprint.in/opinion/china-saudi-nuclear-pact-can-trigger-an-arms-race-in-west-asia/516781/

October 6, 2020 Posted by Christina Macpherson | politics international, Saudi Arabia, weapons and war | Leave a comment

The American election- what will the nuclear order look like after this?

image from MENAFN.COM

THE U.S. ELECTION AND NUCLEAR ORDER IN THE POST-PANDEMIC WORLD  Limitless Life,    LEON V. SIGAL, SEPTEMBER 29 2020Abstract

U.S. power and prestige may have diminished in recent years, but the United States still plays a pivotal role in international institutions, alliances, and mass media, so who becomes its president and which party controls Congress matter a lot for the global nuclear order. However unlikely it is that Donald Trump’s expressed desire to contest the election’s outcome could succeed,  whether the nation can avert a violent backlash among disappointed partisans is less clear.

Nuclear weapons are often thought to be the esoteric domain of experts. Yet one need only recall that although mass activism does not guarantee policy change, three of the most significant developments in recent decades – the ban on above-ground nuclear tests, the INF
Treaty, and the collapse of the Berlin Wall – would not have happened without mass protests in many countries. And citizen involvement, organized by NGOs, can even facilitate monitoring of arms agreements and nuclear developments in some countries.

The public’s understandable preoccupation with COVID-19, economic distress, racial animus, and climate change leave scant scope for paying heed to nuclear risks, which makes mobilization of a mass anti-nuclear movement unlikely. Absent popular action, however,
positive change to the global nuclear order will continue to be marginal and fitful. This makes the international milieu critical for the nuclear future – a milieu that a president can influence but not determine.
President Trump’s reelection is likely to have a pernicious effect on that milieu, hindering international cooperation to limit nuclear weapons and accelerating a qualitative arms race that could endanger crisis stability. Yet two of Trump’s more positive impulses are likely to continue. He is unlikely to increase the risk of an intense crisis leading to nuclear war because he wants to avoid U.S. involvement in any wars, not start new ones. He will also try to sustain negotiations
with North Korea to curb nuclear developments there, though whether he is prepared to satisfy Pyongyang’s stiffer demands remains in doubt.His opponent, Joseph Biden, will face those same demands. Personnel is policy, and the Biden administration will likely be staffed with officials who served under President Obama. That means a return to shoring up alliances and international cooperation. It also means continuity with Obama’s nuclear policies. Whether he will curtail Obama’s modernization plans is not clear, but in contrast to Trump, he will try his best to restore the JCPOA, which could head off nuclear weapons development not only in Iran but also in Saudi Arabia. He will also strive to save START, seek technical talks with China, and not abandon the Open Skies accord……….. https://wordpress.com/read/feeds/2663585/posts/2938659215

October 1, 2020 Posted by Christina Macpherson | 2 WORLD, politics international, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Armenian Ambassador on Azerbaijani threats of missile strike against Metsamor Nuclear Power Plan

Armenian Ambassador on Azerbaijani threats of missile strike against Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant Public Radio of Armenia,  Siranush Ghazanchyan   August 3, 2020,   Armenia has undertaken a number of measures to raise awareness about Azerbaijan’s threat to strike the Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant, Armen Papikyan, Armenia’s ambassador to the IAEA, said in an interview with Energy Intelligence.

“Given that the Azerbaijani leadership has no qualms about targeting civilian installations, we took the threat extremely seriously,” he said.

On Jul. 16, amid renewed fighting on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, the spokesperson for the Azerbaijan defense ministry threatened a missile strike against Armenia’s Metsamor nuclear power plant (NIW Jul.17’20). This threat reverberated in Vienna, where Armenia’s mission to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) submitted a “Note Verbale” to the agency’s director general (DG) on Jul. 17, noting taht such threats “are an explicit demonstration of state terrorism and genocidal intent of Azerbaijan.” Baku soon responded……….. https://en.armradio.am/2020/08/03/armenian-ambassador-on-azerbaijani-threats-of-missile-strike-against-metsamor-nuclear-power-plant/

October 1, 2020 Posted by Christina Macpherson | EUROPE, politics international | Leave a comment

The Trump administration’s stances on nuclear negotiations don’t even make sense as a starting point.

Washington’s Arms Control Delusions and Bluffs  https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2020/09/washingtons-arms-control-delusions-and-bluffs/168817/

The Trump administration’s stances on nuclear negotiations don’t even make sense as a starting point.   BY STEVEN PIFER
FELLOW, STANFORD UNIVERSITY, SEPTEMBER 28, 2020  The clock for the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty runs out on February 5. The Trump administration has not taken up Russia’s offer to extend the treaty, believing it has leverage to get something more from the Kremlin, and it has even threatened an arms race.

This is delusion and bluff. If the administration does not change course, New START will lapse and, for the first time in decades, U.S. and Russian nuclear forces will be under no constraints.

The terms of New START permit its extension for up to five years. Keeping Russian strategic forces limited and maintaining the current flow of information about those forces are very much in the U.S. interest. The Kremlin is ready to extend. Yet the Trump administration has laid down conditions, apparently believing that Moscow is desperate to continue the agreement.

The first condition is expanding the scope of the agreement. President Trump’s arms control envoy, Marshall Billingslea, has said that Russia must agree to new negotiations that cover all U.S. and Russian nuclear arms. This is not an unreasonable goal; it was proposed by the Obama administration in 2010. But Moscow has already responded by saying that any new negotiations would have to address questions of interest to Russia, starting with missile defense — and Mr. Billingslea has made clear that limits on missile defense are not on offer.

The second condition is improved verification. Mr. Billingslea claims that New START’s monitoring measures have significant shortcomings. However, the U.S. military and intelligence community deemed those measures sufficient in 2010, when the treaty was signed, and that remains the case today. Indeed, the State Department certified last spring that Russia was in compliance with New START.Indeed, the biggest New START compliance issue has been raised by Russian officials. They express concern that the procedures used by the U.S. military to convert heavy bombers and launch tubes on ballistic missile submarines so that they will no longer be counted by New START can easily be reversed. (Mr. Billingslea seemed to confirm this in a recent interview, when he said the United States would immediately reverse the conversions if the treaty lapses in February.)

Over the summer, the Trump administration appeared to drop a third condition—that China, which has nothing to do with New START, agree to join arms negotiations with the United States and Russia—but Mr. Billingslea ten days ago said a new treaty must include China.

The Kremlin does not appear inclined to accept the U.S. conditions. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov termed them “too far-fetched and devoid of appealing elements,” even as Mr. Billingslea seems to have doubled down. He has warned that Washington may demand more if Moscow does not agree to the U.S. conditions by November. He offered no strategic reason for saying November; it appears obvious that he wants a pre-election agreement and photo op for Mr. Trump.

The U.S. arms control envoy also has threatened to spend Russia “into oblivion” with an arms race if New START ends and there is no replacement treaty. He bluntly told a Russian journalist: “we can afford it, but you can’t.”

Really? The Pentagon is struggling to fund its already planned nuclear modernization programs, which are sucking up funds from conventional weapons programs. At the same time, the Navy wants to expand its current 290 large ships to 355, while the Air Force wants 386 squadrons, a 25 percent increase over the current number. The Department of Defense is developing new intermediate-range missile programs, whose costs will run into the billions of dollars. Where will the Pentagon find the money for a strategic nuclear arms race?

Moreover, U.S. strategic force modernization programs will not begin producing new weapons until the end of the 2020s. Russia, on the other hand, has hot production lines now churning out new ballistic missile submarines, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and intercontinental ballistic missiles, among other things. It could keep those lines running. If necessary, the Kremlin has nearly $600 billion in reserves as well as a large national wealth fund on which it could draw.

Illusory leverage and empty threats will not get Russia to agree to the Trump administration’s approach. Washington should agree to extend New START to February 2026, perhaps in conjunction with a short joint statement by Presidents Trump and Putin that the two countries will explore further nuclear arms reductions and the full range of related issues, including third-country nuclear forces and missile defense.

That approach would ensure U.S. and Russian strategic forces remain limited until 2026. It would give negotiators time to work through some very thorny issues. It would make Americans safer. And, most importantly for Mr. Trump, it would give him his photo op.

Steven Pifer is a William Perry Research Fellow at Stanford’s Center for International Security and Cooperation and a retired Foreign Service officer.

October 1, 2020 Posted by Christina Macpherson | politics international, weapons and war | Leave a comment

USA threatens putting more weapons on bombers and submarines if Russia doesn’t agree to USA conditions for arms talks

Trump administration orders assessment on bolstering nuclear warheads as talks with Russia stall
U.S. diplomats are trying to play hardball with Russia in negotiations over whether to extend New START,  Politico, .By DANIEL LIPPMAN, BRYAN BENDER and LARA SELIGMAN, 09/28/2020 The Trump administration has asked the military to assess how quickly it could pull nuclear weapons out of storage and load them onto bombers and submarines if an arms control treaty with Russia is allowed to expire in February, according to three people familiar with the discussions.

The request to U.S. Strategic Command in Nebraska is part of a strategy to pressure Moscow into renegotiating the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty before the U.S. presidential election, the people said.

In making the request, the Trump administration wants to underscore that it is serious about letting the treaty lapse if Russia fails to meet U.S. demands. The negotiating team is leery that Russia is dragging out the talks in the hope that Joe Biden — who has pledged to extend New START under what Moscow believes will be more favorable terms than what this White House is offering — wins the election.

“It’s a clear signal that the costs for not negotiating before the election are going to go up,” said one of the people, who requested anonymity to relay sensitive discussions. The Trump administration is “trying to create an incentive, and it’s a real incentive, for the Russians to sit down and actually negotiate.”

The request for the assessment came in the last two weeks from a group of officials at the National Security Council and State, Defense and Energy departments that’s supporting Ambassador Marshall Billingslea in negotiations with Moscow to try to replace New START before it runs out in February.

The assessment will determine how long it would take to load nuclear weapons now in reserve onto long-range bombers, ballistic missile submarines and land-based silos to beef up the U.S. nuclear force in the event Russia increases its arsenal.

It comes as Billingslea has publicly raised the possibility of putting more weapons on bombers and submarines if New START lapses and has sharpened his rhetoric in recent days to try to secure more concessions from the Russians.

It would certainly be a question that you would want to ask STRATCOM,” said retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Frank Klotz, who oversaw nuclear forces before serving as head of the DOE’s National Nuclear Security Administration. “You would want to fully understand all the possible implications of your negotiating approach, both if it should succeed or, alternatively, if it should fail.”

But former senior arms control and military officials also consider the move a risky gambit. It could send a message that the Trump administration, which has already pulled out of two other nuclear-related treaties with Russia, is no longer interested in any limits on the world’s largest arsenals. And it could goad the Russians into taking similar steps.

I call that megaphone diplomacy,” said Rose Gottemoeller, who served as deputy secretary general of NATO until last year and negotiated New START when she was at the State Department. “Do we want to end up in a less stable place? Because we would be nuclear arms racing.”

“It’s very stupid,” added a former GOP arms control official who declined to be identified because he still advises the government. “It makes absolutely no sense to threaten to upload. It becomes a valid leveraging point only if the other side can’t do it. The Russians can do it, too.”

“But more importantly,” this person added, “the systems we have deployed today are the ones we believe are necessary to provide an adequate deterrent. There is no obvious reason and every reason not to in the absence of a change in the threat. It’s not going to scare the Russians. The likelihood of success with the Russians is about nil.”

A State Department spokesperson declined to comment on Billingslea’s behalf.

Capt. Bill Clinton, a spokesperson for Strategic Command, declined to address the military’s role in the deliberations. “We don’t talk about future operations, and really can’t speculate on arms control talks (as that is not [our] responsibility),” he wrote in an email.

An NSC spokesperson declined to comment.

New START, signed in 2010, mandated both sides draw down to 1,550 deployed strategic weapons and includes provisions to verify compliance, including reciprocal on-site inspections of nuclear bases.

The pact is set to expire on Feb. 5 unless both sides agree to an extension for up to five years.  apply.

Russia in December offered to extend the treaty without preconditions. ………https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/28/trump-russia-nuclear-deal-talks-422736

October 1, 2020 Posted by Christina Macpherson | politics international, USA, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Near to flaspoint – disputes between India, Pakistan,China

Tensions between 3 nuclear-armed powers are rising toward the boiling point   ABBY POKRAKA, RESPONSIBLE STATECRAFT

SEP 30, 2020, 
  • The disputed borderlands between India, China, and Pakistan are increasingly becoming a flashpoint for conflict.
  • The world can’t ignore these growing challenges, and while the international community should look to help manage the situation, direct US involvement is probably not the best way forward, writes Abby Pokraka, a program coordinator for the Centre for Arms-Control and Non-Proliferation.
For decades, India and Pakistan have clashed over Kashmir, the mountainous region both countries claim. But to make matters more complicated, China has a stake in the area, too. The Aksai Chin region — located between Kashmir and Tibet — is under Chinese control and has been a source of conflict between India and China since 1962.

The borderlands between these three nuclear-armed states is increasingly a flashpoint for conflict. The international community ignores these growing challenges at its peril and should be looking for ways to help manage potential crises in the region.

And while the United States can play a role, in this particular instance, direct US involvement is probably not the best way forward………….

China was drawn into a dispute between India and Pakistan when India revoked Kashmir’s autonomy in August 2019 and wanted to incorporate parts of “Xinjiang and Tibet into its Ladakh union territory,” which China believes violates its dominion due to its occupation of Tibet. It appears that over the last year the situation in Kashmir has not gotten better.

……It seems clear that after decades of poor relations, the tensions in this part of the world may reach a boiling point.

Finding a solution to these half-century conflicts seems daunting, but it is necessary. While many nations have fought throughout history, a conflict between nuclear-armed states carries an unbearable risk of escalation.

To start, these countries can take small steps to stabilise the security of the region and pave the way for better relations. Starting a dialogue, bilateral or trilateral, can improve communication in the longer term, which can help reduce the likelihood of conflict.

Establishing crisis communications was an important step the United States and the Soviet Union took in the wake of the Cuban Missile Crisis, and de-escalation practices the two countries implemented in the early 1960s remained in place through the end of the Cold War.

A third party could help facilitate regional discussions. Given its history in the region, the United States might have seemed like a good option for such facilitation, but that is not the case at this time…….

This week, President Trump took aim at China before the United Nations, blaming it for the global COVID pandemic.

At this point, there is no reason China would see the United States as a desirable mediator for any regional conflict……

friction among China, India, and Pakistan continues to grow. The only way to diffuse the tension and prevent destructive escalation is through diplomacy.

Other countries need to step up and work to reduce the hostilities. Make no mistake, a large-scale, regional conflict among nuclear-armed states would have global consequences. https://www.businessinsider.com.au/httpsresponsiblestatecraftorg20200925india-china-pakistan-three-nuclear-powers-hurtling-towards-the-boiling-point-2020-9

October 1, 2020 Posted by Christina Macpherson | China, India, Pakistan, politics international, weapons and war | Leave a comment

UN nuclear watchdog inspects second Iran site

UN nuclear watchdog inspects second Iran site, Aljazeera, 30 Sept 20, 

IAEA says it gained access to the second site in Iran where nuclear activity may have taken place in the early 2000s.   The United Nations nuclear watchdog inspected the second of two suspected former secret atomic sites in Iran as agreed with Tehran last month in a deal that ended a standoff over access, the agency said on Wednesday.The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has not named either of the two undeclared sites, but it has described activities it suspects took place there in 2003, the year it and US intelligence services believe Iran halted a secret and coordinated nuclear weapons programme.

………The spokesman of Iran’s Atomic Energy Agency, Behrouz Kamalvandi, confirmed the news of the inspection, saying he hopes it will stop the United States from taking advantage of the issue.

……..The Kamalvandi said he hopes the move will prevent the US and other countries that wish to politicise Iran’s case and “drag it to the UN Security Council” from further pressuring the IAEA…….https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/9/30/un-nuclear-watchdog-inspects-second-iran-site

October 1, 2020 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international, weapons and war | Leave a comment

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