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How much longer can the world absorb the Iran shock?

 The war that was intended to deliver a swift overthrow of the Iranian
regime is now in its eighth month, with no end in sight. So, what might
happen next?

My preliminary conclusion is that one should never
underestimate human stupidity or human ingenuity. So far it is a rough draw
between the two. How long will this last?

That is the question. In a
devastating analysis, John Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago
describes the war on Iran as “The Mother of All Strategic Blunders”.
Among other things, he notes, the US went into the war on the false claim
that Iran was on the verge of acquiring a nuclear weapon; it thought air
power alone would produce regime change, which has never worked; it had no
contingency plan for dealing with Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

It has also failed to achieve any of its four principal objectives —
regime change, ending Iran’s nuclear enrichment capability, ending its
long-range missile capability and ending its support for Hamas, Hizbollah
and the Houthis.

The closure of the strait has done significant damage to
the international economy and may do much more; and the US alliance
structure (in the Gulf and elsewhere) has been damaged. All this, moreover,
is only about half of the full charge sheet.

But the economic damage has
been surprisingly modest. As Johannes Urpelainen of the Johns Hopkins
School of Advanced International Studies noted in August, “Many experts
initially thought that this supply disruption would send oil prices to USD
200 per barrel, causing massive inflation and a global recession. Instead,
oil prices peaked at USD 126 per barrel in April 2026.”

First, the energy
transition has reduced the global economy’s dependence on oil. Second,
supply chains have proven resilient and adaptive. Third, producers outside
the Middle East have acted fast to produce more oil and natural gas.
Finally, drawdowns of global oil inventories have filled the remaining gap.

 FT 7th Oct 2026, https://www.ft.com/content/37e12a42-d473-4b1b-8fc5-4ea5f06d3bfb

October 11, 2026 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international, USA