2026 September 27 « nuclear-news

Who will foot the bill? The opportunity cost of prioritising nuclear power over renewable energy for the case of Finland

Science Direct, Rasul Satymov ^a, Salvatore Ruggiero ^b, Björn Steigerwald ^cd, Jens Weibezahn ^e, Neven Duić ^f, Jero Ahola ^a, Dmitrii Bogdanov ^a, Christian Breyer 15 November 2025

Highlights

•Tripling nuclear power is more expensive than optimised renewables in Finland.
•Tripling nuclear power costs over 71% more, equal to 2.3% of Finland’s GDP.
•Tripling nuclear power exacerbates local social inequalities.
•Renewables meet energy demand more cost-effectively and avoid nuclear risks.
•Timely insights for policymakers quantifying the costs of nuclear power expansion.

Abstract

In an effort to decarbonise their energy systems, several countries have declared intentions to triple their nuclear power capacity by 2050 at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of the Parties 28. The expansion of nuclear power includes plans for so-called small modular reactors, intended for electricity generation as well as combined heat and power production. This study aims to demonstrate the cost differences between nuclear-based and renewables-based energy-industry systems using the Finnish energy system as a case study. Four nuclear power expansion scenarios are examined, imposing 13.2 GW of nuclear power capacity into Finland’s energy supply mix, with various capacities of small- and large-scale nuclear power plants alongside combined heat and power production from small-scale nuclear plants. These nuclear tripling scenarios are compared to a reference scenario that simulates a free cost optimisation with zero emissions target. The nuclear scenarios show 71–84% higher annualised system cost of 18.4–19.7 b€ compared to a renewables-based system costing 10.7 b€ in 2050. The reference scenario does not include the installation of new nuclear power capacities, indicating that new nuclear power plants are not part of a cost-optimal system. Additionally, the energy-industry system outlined in the reference scenario possesses fewer risks compared to nuclear tripling scenarios, particularly given that SMR technologies are not yet commercially available. The findings have important implications for energy justice, especially in terms of the significant opportunity cost presented by the nuclear decarbonisation pathway.

1. Introduction

There is a growing discourse on energy transition to low-carbon sources, with proponents advocating for both highly renewable energy (RE) systems [1] and the expansion of nuclear power [2,3]. At the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of the Parties 28 (COP28) 25 countries have declared their intent to triple their nuclear energy capacity by 2050 [4]. This commitment comes in spite of the risks associated with nuclear power in terms of cost, long lead times, waste disposal challenges, safety concerns, proliferation, considerable operational risks in war zones, and uranium supply uncertainties [[5], [6], [7], [8], [9]].

The COP28 declaration commits to triple global nuclear energy capacity from 2020 to 2050 by mobilising investments and supporting the construction of various nuclear power technologies, including small-capacity reactors, known as small modular reactors (SMR), although these technologies are not yet commercially viable [10].

New nuclear power plants may struggle to secure sufficient fuel for their entire operational lifetimes due to rising demand for uranium and limited reserves [11]…………………………………………………………………………

While many studies advocate for 100% RE-based systems [19,20], others see nuclear power as a viable option or a necessary complement to RE [[21], [22], [23], [24]]. However, nuclear power is unlikely to meet the expectations for rapid capacity expansion to align with climate goals [5,25,26]. SMRs have been proposed as a cost-effective alternative to conventional reactors, but their lack of large-scale deployment and limited operational experience presents challenges. SMRs, akin to traditional nuclear power plants, require lengthy regulatory approvals, licensing, and operational testing to ensure safety [25], and their economic viability remains uncertain [27,28]. ………………………………………………………. over-insistence on nuclear power may ultimately delay the energy transition.

Conversely, 100% RE-based systems are increasingly recognised as a more affordable option for decarbonisation [20] than nuclear power-centric systems, relying on improved energy storage and grid management, as documented for increasing periods of 100% RE in California [35]………………………………………………………..

With growing calls to deploy SMRs to address climate change [40] and energy security [41,42], it is essential to evaluate the economic costs and energy justice [43] implications of decarbonisation pathways. This study conducts a techno-economic assessment of scaling up nuclear power versus transitioning to a highly RE system using Finland as a case study………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Several studies have shown the feasibility of a highly RE-based system in Finland [[57], [58], [59], [60], [61], [62], [63], [64]]. Child and Breyer [58] and Pilpola et al. [61] show that carbon-neutrality can be achieved without nuclear power, and adding nuclear power increases energy system costs.

COMMENT – Lengthy discussion here, with excellent tables and graphs

6. Conclusion

Tripling nuclear energy capacity by 2050, as proposed by the COP28 declaration, would lead to significantly higher annualised costs and levelised costs of electricity compared to a cost-optimised system that prioritises renewable energy sources. …………………………………………………………………………………………. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544225042720

September 27, 2026 Posted by Christina Macpherson | business and costs, Finland | Leave a comment

Greenpeace calls for review of infrastructure protection at Cattenom power plant

RTL Lëtzebuerg, adapted for RTL Today, 23.09.26, https://today.rtl.lu/news/luxembourg/greenpeace-calls-for-review-of-infrastructure-protection-at-cattenom-power-plant-61201962

Recent flyovers by unidentified drones in Luxembourg have prompted Greenpeace to urge the government to review security measures, particularly in relation to the extended operation of the Cattenom nuclear power plant.

Greenpeace Luxembourg has raised concerns that the recent sightings of unidentified drones flying over Luxembourg should be viewed not only in the context of the renewed operating licence for the Cattenom nuclear power plant, but as part of a broader conversation about the protection of critical infrastructure.

In a statement released on Wednesday, Greenpeace called on the Luxembourg government to demand information from the French authorities regarding the risks posed by drone attacks and potential acts of sabotage.

The organisation stressed that if Cattenom is not adequately protected against such attacks, the Luxembourg government must demand that the reactor is shut down.

The new Greenpeace study, which is available online in German, analyses the risks that modern drones pose to French nuclear power stations. The report concludes that an attack on the Cattenom plant could have severe consequences for Luxembourg.

According to the study, in such an event, the population would not only have to be relocated from areas in France, but also from neighbouring countries Germany and Luxembourg, for an extended period.

Roger Spautz, nuclear energy expert for Greenpeace Luxembourg, underlined that the current wave of drone threats demonstrates how seriously the risks associated with modern drone technology must be taken.

He argued that the Luxembourg population has a right to know how well protected the Cattenom facility is against such threats.

September 27, 2026 Posted by Christina Macpherson | EUROPE, safety | Leave a comment

The Dictator of Kiev Needs the War: Closing Russian Skies to Stay in Power

Adrian Korczyński, September 23, 2026, https://journal-neo.su/2026/09/23/the-dictator-of-kiev-needs-the-war-closing-russian-skies-to-stay-in-power/

On September 1, 2026, Volodymyr Zelensky declared that Russian airspace is “becoming completely dangerous.” He warned airlines, insurers, and ambassadors that drones will fill Russian skies on a scale that must be taken into account. “The safe days in Russia’s skies are over.”

The Skies Are the New Battlefield

This was not an operational communication. It was a declaration by a man who needs the war to continue and expand.

Ukraine has been conducting a systematic campaign of drone strikes against Russian oil refineries since the beginning of 2026. The attacks have targeted nearly every major refinery in European Russia, covering the majority of the country’s refining capacity. Lukoil plants in Volgograd, Perm and NORSI in Kstovo have been hit multiple times, and as of late August, all of Lukoil’s major refineries were out of operation. Oil processing has dropped significantly. Fuel shortages, sales restrictions and long queues at petrol stations have appeared across many Russian regions. Zelensky had previously spoken of a target of a thousand drones per day. The warning about “closing” Russian skies is simply the next step in this strategy of maximum escalation.

A War Without an Election

Zelensky’s elected five-year term expired in May 2024. Elections have not been held. Martial law has been repeatedly extended. By the standards Western governments routinely invoke when judging political systems elsewhere, this amounts to wartime authoritarian rule. If any government in Africa, Asia or Latin America cancelled elections, ruled indefinitely under emergency powers and used ongoing war as the justification, Western capitals would call it what it is. In Kiev’s case they prefer softer language. The double standard is the point.

Every expansion of the battlefield – from the front line, through energy infrastructure, to the open threat against civilian airspace – helps preserve the state of exception. War has become a political insurance policy. As long as it continues, Zelensky remains indispensable. As long as it continues, the question of democratic legitimacy can be postponed indefinitely. Escalation is no longer merely a military instrument. It has become a method of holding power.

Closing the Skies

Zelensky claims that Ukraine “does not threaten civil aviation as such.” At the same time he deliberately announces the saturation of Russian skies with drones to a degree that makes them dangerous for civilian traffic. This is not defence. It is an attempt to internationalise risk and force the world to accept further escalation as the new normal. The warning directed at airlines and insurers is political, not humanitarian. If Ukrainian drones fill Russian airspace every night in large numbers, the Russian state will be forced to either admit its skies are unsafe or take measures that escalate the conflict further. Either outcome serves the same purpose.

A Bid for State Terrorism

President Vladimir Putin described Zelensky’s warning as a “bid for state terrorism” and said that “there can be no negotiations with terrorists.” Whatever one thinks of the formulation, the exchange reveals how far Kiev is prepared to push the logic of “response.” The campaign against refineries and the threat to close Russian skies belong to the same strategy: maximise costs on the Russian side while insisting there is no alternative to continued war. The calculation is clear: if the threat becomes real enough, the world will be forced to treat the war not as a regional conflict but as a global aviation crisis. And that is precisely the political logic of the strategy.

Who Controls the Trigger?

Zelensky also admitted that when the Americans asked him to suspend attacks on Moscow and St. Petersburg for three days in late August, he complied. This is a revealing admission. He is not acting in the image of a fully sovereign leader making decisions in complete strategic independence. He is managing a conflict in which outside powers can request pauses in major operations and expect Kiev to comply. Then he announces that the strikes will resume. The admission is as significant as the strikes themselves. It exposes the depth of Ukraine’s dependence on its Western patrons: Kiev may pull the trigger, but others can still influence when it is temporarily lowered.

The War Must Continue

Zelensky is not looking for a way to end the war. He is looking for a way not to end it. The warning that Russian skies are “completely dangerous” is both a military act and a political one. It sustains a system in which one man, whose elected mandate expired in 2024 and has not been renewed at the ballot box, decides that a conflict which should have entered negotiations long ago must continue and expand. Escalation has ceased to be a means. It has become the end itself. And the man who needs that escalation continues to style himself president.

September 27, 2026 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Ukraine, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Israel Damaged 82 Percent of Gaza’s Buildings. Collapses Are Burying Us Alive.

Residents of the recently collapsed six-story high rise knew they were in danger but could find nowhere else to sleep.

By Shahad Ali , Truthout, September 23, 2026

Khaled Al Soutari, who was inside the six-story residential building in western Gaza City that collapsed on September 16, is now sleeping on the street without a tent, devastated by the loss of 21 of his neighbors.

“They were more than just neighbors to me,” Al Soutari told me when I interviewed him two days after the building collapse, sitting on the street with a group of his neighbors next to the collapsed building. “They were my best friends. We shared food and laughter and had endless talks despite the harsh reality we were living through. It is hard for me to imagine life without them.”

Al Soutari told me that for more than six months, the building, which had previously been damaged by Israeli bombardment, had been weakening further because of wastewater seepage. The walls had also developed deeper cracks, and pieces of concrete had begun to fall. Then, one night, the building itself suddenly crumbled.

“We were sleeping when suddenly the ground started to shake as if an earthquake had hit. I started screaming at my wife and children to jump through a hole in the wall, but we could not because the building collapsed,” Al Soutari told me. “I found myself under the rubble within seconds, surrounded by the screams of my family and others shouting, ‘We are here. We do not want to die. Help us.’ I could not breathe or shout. For a moment, I thought this was the end.”

“Luckily, one of my neighbors noticed me and managed to free me from the concrete pressing on my back,” he continued. “However, my wife and my three children spent hours under the rubble before the Civil Defense intervened and managed to rescue them.”

Al Soutari added that his daughter, Sham, suffered a leg injury in the collapse and had to undergo surgery to have a plate inserted.

The municipality had inspected the building a few days before it collapsed and asked residents to leave, Al Soutari said, explaining that his family tried to do so, but they could not find any other place to go.

“I always talked with my neighbors who lived in the building about my fear that it could collapse on us at any moment, but we were helpless. We could do nothing but stay,” he told me………………………………………………………….

As Winter Approaches, More Building Collapses Are Imminent

The collapse of the Al-Sadah building was not an isolated case. Mahmoud Bassal, spokesperson for Gaza’s Civil Defense, said in a statement after the collapse of the Al-Sadah building that around 2,000 other buildings across the Gaza Strip are also at risk of complete collapse………………………………………………………………………. https://truthout.org/articles/israel-damaged-82-percent-of-gazas-buildings-collapses-are-burying-us-alive/?utm_source=Truthout&utm_campaign=1319f0e1c1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2026_09_23_08_15_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_bbb541a1db-66fc42c01f-650192793

September 27, 2026 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Atrocities, Gaza, Israel | Leave a comment

North Korea to keep nuclear weapons ‘forever’: foreign minister

North Korea will keep its nuclear weapons “forever”, its foreign minister
vowed Thursday, dismissing the South Korean president’s renewed calls for a
denuclearised Korean Peninsula. Pyongyang has legally enshrined its status
as a nuclear-armed state, with its leadership repeatedly declaring the
country’s atomic arsenal permanent and irreversible.

Daily Mail 24th Sept 2026,
https://www.dailymail.com/wires/afp/article-16156233/North-Korea-nuclear-weapons-forever-foreign-minister.html

September 27, 2026 Posted by Christina Macpherson | North Korea, weapons and war | Leave a comment

With federal funding windfall, X-energy advances small nuclear reactor

For the nuclear renaissance to truly arrive, however, these new projects need to be completed on a reasonable timeline and at a reasonable cost. Blown deadlines and blown budgets have dogged the industry, and in 2023 contributed to the dissolution of the first small-modular reactor project with an NRC-approved design

The Amazon-backed firm is aiming to build up to 144 of its novel Xe-100 reactors as the U.S. government seeks to revitalize an industry beset by rising costs.

Canary Media ,By Brian Martucci, 23 September 2026

The federal government has thrown its weight into reviving America’s long-stagnant nuclear industry, and X-energy’s first-of-a-kind reactor project is among the biggest beneficiaries so far.

The U.S. Department of Energy last month said it would award $1 billion to X-energy, an Amazon-backed advanced nuclear startup working to bring four novel 80-megawatt electric reactors online at a Dow Chemical facility in Seadrift, Texas, in the early 2030s.

The federal government has thrown its weight into reviving America’s long-stagnant nuclear industry, and X-energy’s first-of-a-kind reactor project is among the biggest beneficiaries so far.

The award nearly doubles the federal government’s commitment to X-energy, following a $1.2 billion investment in early 2021. Both tranches were structured as 50-50 cost-sharing agreements under the DOE’s Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program, launched in 2020 to commercialize next-generation nuclear technologies.

X-energy’s Seadrift project now enjoys a level of federal funding that rivals any other advanced nuclear development in the nation. The Bill Gates–backed TerraPower’s commercial demonstration project in Wyoming, which broke ground earlier this year, has also been awarded up to $2 billion in cost-sharing funds through the ARDP.

The X-energy project does not yet have a license from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, though it received a key environmental approval in May and expects the regulator to green-light reactor construction in early 2027. Only TerraPower and the Google-backed startup Kairos Power currently have NRC construction permits.

Nuclear energy has struggled in recent decades in America, but surging energy demand and a desire by some states and companies to secure carbon-free electricity have revitalized the industry. Tens of billions of dollars in public and private funding are now flowing into a crop of startups looking to build advanced reactors — as well as efforts to restart or build new large-scale reactors like the 96 America already has.

In early 2023, before it had fully engaged with Dow or selected Seadrift for its commercial debut, X-energy estimated the cost of completing the full ARDP scope between $4.75 billion and $5.75 billion.

X-energy has not publicly updated its cost estimates since then, though the federal funding of up to $2.1 billion implies at least $4.2 billion will be spent on the project. In securities filings this year, however, it said that it faces the same broad inflationary and trade-related pressures that have pushed up costs for natural gas, renewables, and other types of energy infrastructure.

CEO J. Clay Sell told investors and stock analysts on an Aug. 13 earnings call that he expected the government to contribute more funding as needed.

“I’m confident to the extent more dollars will be required, they will be provided by our partners at the Department of Energy and Commerce,” he said. “We’ll see where the number ends up.”……………………………………https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/nuclear/federal-funding-x-energy-small-nuclear-reactor

September 27, 2026 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Small Modular Nuclear Reactors, USA | Leave a comment

A new report from Europe raises serious alarms about orbital collisions

“I think we are going to lose the ability to use certain orbits.”

Eric Berger ars TECHNICA, – Sep 23, 2026

The 2013 sci-fi blockbuster film Gravity, starring Sandra Bullock and George Clooney, popularized the notion of the Kessler syndrome. In the movie, Russia shoots down a defunct satellite and creates a cloud of debris, leading to serious tension in orbit.

The movie is fantastic, a true thriller, and while some liberties were taken with the depiction of outer space, the basic premise of a cascading series of collisions rendering orbits too cluttered with debris to be usable is valid. The idea was first proposed by NASA scientists Donald Kessler and Burton Cour-Palais nearly half a century ago.

Still, the movie was science fiction, right?

Well, a lot has changed since Gravity‘s release. At the time that theatergoers were sitting on the edges of their seats and watching Bullock dodge debris, there were only about 1,000 active satellites in orbit. Today, that number is closer to 17,000, according to CelesTrak.

The preponderance of this growth has been driven by SpaceX’s Starlink constellation, which now has approximately 11,000 satellites in orbit, with many thousands more on the way. And SpaceX is not alone in the race to provide Internet from space. Amazon has launched hundreds of satellites, with thousands more to follow. Multiple Chinese Internet constellations are likewise in progress.

Then there are the orbital data centers, which may produce hundreds of thousands of satellites.

We’ve written a lot about these constellations, and they have generated a bunch of questions. Most prominent among them: Just how sustainable is all of this? Will we see the Kessler syndrome play out in real time? Here are some answers.

How bad is the situation?

It depends on who you ask, so let’s start with the glass-half-empty and glass-half-full outlooks.

Starting with the pessimists: A few years ago, one of the world’s experts in orbital debris, University of Texas at Austin professor Moriba Jah, told Ars that he worries a lot about the consequences of satellites and debris in low-Earth orbit.

“I think we are going to lose the ability to use certain orbits because the carrying capacity is going to get saturated by objects and junk,” Jah said. ” I also predict that we will see a loss of human life by (1) school bus-sized objects reentering and surviving reentry and hitting a populated area, or (2) people riding on this wave of civil and commercial astronauts basically having their vehicle getting scwhacked by an unpredicted piece of junk. I predict that both those things are going to happen in the next decade.”

At the other end of the spectrum is the person almost solely responsible for the remarkable growth in satellites over the last decade, SpaceX founder Elon Musk. His attitude has largely been that space is big, and things will probably be just fine. For example, during a SpaceX-produced interview this summer at the company’s Starlink terminal factory in Bastrop, Texas, Musk said, “Space is really big. It’s not like space is gonna get crowded. Space is enormous. If you actually look at it relative to the Earth, the satellites are so tiny you can’t even see them.”

So in one way of thinking, very, very bad things are coming. In another, everything’s fine. Where does the truth actually lie?

What’s really happening?

One of the most credible sources for this kind of information is the European Space Agency, which has long studied space debris and its impacts on various orbits.

Fortunately, it just released its annual Space Environment Report a week ago. The European agency has produced such a report over the last decade to provide a transparent overview of global space activities and assess the quality of efforts to preserve the sustainability of spaceflight.

There are some striking—and concerning—changes this year. For example, the European report has dramatically increased its projections of future satellites in this year’s report after reassessing the current trajectory of large constellations.

“The notable increase in the index this year is primarily driven by the substantially larger future population resulting from the current extrapolation scenario,” the report states. “In particular, the growing influence of large constellations highlights the limitations of traditional mitigation approaches when applied to future traffic at unprecedented scales. At the same time, the results are affected by the limited availability of detailed and verifiable information on future deployment plans, operational practices, and end-of-life strategies of these systems.”

More satellites mean an increasing probability of collisions, which helps to push us toward a Kessler-like scenario…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. https://arstechnica.com/space/2026/09/there-are-now-17000-satellites-in-orbit-and-growing-should-we-be-concerned/

September 27, 2026 Posted by Christina Macpherson | space travel | Leave a comment

40 years after Chernobyl, Italy greenlights a return to nuclear energy

Italy´s Senate on Wednesday gave final approval to legislation paving the
way for a return to nuclear power nearly four decades after the Chernobyl
disaster prompted the country to abandon atomic energy. The measure cleared
the upper house 81-51 with seven abstentions. It marks a major step in
Premier Giorgia Meloni´s drive to bolster energy security and meet climate
goals, even though the construction of possible new reactors is still years
away. The bill, which earlier passed the lower Chamber of Deputies,
establishes a legal framework for next-generation nuclear technologies. It
authorizes the government to draft implementing decrees over the next 12
months covering reactor licensing, safety standards, waste management and
criteria for future sites.

Daily Mail 23rd Sept 2026 https://www.dailymail.com/wires/ap/article-16154865/Italys-parliament-paves-way-return-nuclear-energy.html

September 27, 2026 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Italy, politics | Leave a comment