nuclear-news

Critical Atlantic current significantly more likely to collapse than thought

The critical Atlantic current system appears significantly more likely to
collapse than previously thought after new research found that climate
models predicting the biggest slowdown are the most realistic.

Scientists called the new finding “very concerning” as a collapse would have
catastrophic consequences for Europe, Africa and the Americas. The Atlantic
meridional overturning circulation (Amoc) is a major part of the global
climate system and was already known to be at its weakest for 1,600 years
as a result of the climate crisis.

Scientists spotted warning signs of a
tipping point in 2021 and know that the Amoc has collapsed in the Earth’s
past. Climate scientists use dozens of different computer models to assess
the future climate. However, for the complex Amoc system, these produce
widely varying results, ranging from some that indicate no further slowdown
by 2100 to those suggesting a huge deceleration of about 65%, even when
carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning are gradually cut to net zero.

The research combined real-world ocean observations with the models to
determine the most reliable, and this hugely reduced the spread of
uncertainty. They found an estimated slowdown of 42% to 58% in 2100, a
level almost certain to end in collapse.

Guardian 15th April 2026, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/apr/15/critical-atlantic-current-significantly-more-likely-to-collapse-than-thought

April 20, 2026 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | climate change