Changing dynamics of US nuclear alliances, and a brazen violation of the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty.
Deccan Herald, 16 Mar 23
China has strongly condemned the submarine deal, accusing AUKUS of displaying a ‘Cold War mentality.
The AUKUS trilateral alliance, which includes Australia, the UK and the US, has signed a landmark deal under which it will create a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines to counter China in the Indo-Pacific region. The deal provides a significant shot in the arm to Australia’s military capability. Canberra will buy three nuclear submarines, with the option to purchase two more. The submarines will use the US’s elite nuclear propulsion technology and be built in Britain and Australia. In addition, American and British nuclear-powered submarines will rotate into Australian waters as early as 2027. The deal marks a significant milestone; Australia has now become the second country after the UK to be provided with this elite American technology. While the supply of nuclear submarines to Australia will beef up Western capacity to contain China in the Indo-Pacific, this is a brazen violation of the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty, under which nuclear weapons states are forbidden from sharing nuclear technology with non-nuclear weapon states. However, this is not the first time that such nuclear sharing is taking place. China has shared its nuclear and missile technology with Pakistan and North Korea, while the US stationed its tactical nuclear weapons in several Western European countries during the Cold War. China has strongly condemned the submarine deal, accusing AUKUS of displaying a “Cold War mentality,” embarking on a “path of error and danger,” damaging the NPT regime, and triggering a nuclear arms race. Its allegations are valid……………………
It is hard to ignore the fact that the hostility between China and the West is increasingly looking like that between the latter and the Soviets during the Cold War years. The Cold War resulted in both sides pouring billions of dollars into their conventional and nuclear arsenals. It is still possible for the two sides to back off. Importantly, they must continue to engage diplomatically and ensure that their competition does not escalate into armed conflict. Weapons and alliances may give countries a sense of security but this is at best hollow. Misperceptions can trigger a war. AUKUS must follow up its nuclear deal by calling for talks with China. https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/first-edit/changing-dynamics-of-us-nuclear-alliances-1200527.html—
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400,000 gallons of radioactive water leaked from a nuclear plant in Minnesota
AP By STEVE KARNOWSKI 16 Mar 23
ST.. PAUL, Minn. (AP) — Minnesota regulators said Thursday they’re monitoring the cleanup of a leak of 400,000 gallons of radioactive water from Xcel Energy’s Monticello nuclear power plant, and the company said there’s no danger to the public.
………………… While Xcel reported the leak of water containing tritium to state and federal authorities in late November, the spill had not been made public before Thursday. State officials said they waited to get more information before going public with it.
…………………….. The Monticello plant is about 35 miles (55 kilometers) northwest of Minneapolis, upstream from the city on the Mississippi River.
………………. Xcel said it has recovered about 25% of the spilled tritium so far, that recovery efforts will continue and that it will install a permanent solution this spring.
…………… Xcel Energy is considering building above-ground storage tanks to store the contaminated water it recovers, and is considering options for the treatment, reuse, or final disposal of the collected tritium and water. State regulators will review the options the company selects, the MPCA said. https://apnews.com/article/minnesota-xcel-energy-nuclear-radioactive-tritium-leak-c7a12ecb1b203179c5f7fef42bd0a3aa?utm_source=homepage&utm_medium=TopNews&utm_campaign=position_02
Britain does not have the capacity to support Australia’s plan to build its own nuclear submarine fleet – Rear Admiral.
Letter Rear Admiral (ret’d) Philip Mathias:
Sir, Britain does not have the
capacity or effective leadership to provide the huge level of support
required by Australia to build its own nuclear submarine fleet (“PM
strikes submarine deal to face new threat”, Mar 14).
The performance of
the Submarine Delivery Agency has been abysmal. Astute class submarines are
being delivered late by BAE Systems; HMS Vanguard’s refit by Babcock has
taken more than seven years; and none of our 22 decommissioned nuclear
submarines has been dismantled, which is disgraceful.
Times 15th March 2023
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/times-letters-aukus-nuclear-powered-submarine-deal-9c5ntd5m7
Nuclear power eliminated from European Commission’s text on funding rules, amid heated disagreements between Europe’s nations.
European commissioners are at odds with each other over including nuclear
power in new funding rules aimed at boosting green industries in the EU
just 48 hours before the legislation is due to be announced. Nuclear
fission was included as a “strategic net zero industry” in an early
draft of the law, meaning atomic power plants could be in line for
fast-tracked permitting, preference in public procurement contracts and
fiscal incentives to boost investment.
But the technology has since been eliminated from the text amid heated discussions that have exposed
ideological divides along national lines within the 27-strong college of
commissioners.
Promoters of nuclear included the European Commission’s
president, Germany’s Ursula von der Leyen, and France’s Thierry Breton, the
internal market commissioner, along with eight others largely from central
and eastern Europe, according to people familiar with the talks.
In the opposite camp were Frans Timmermans, the EU’s climate commissioner and
former Dutch foreign minister, and Denmark’s Margrethe Vestager, the bloc’s
competition chief, as well as four other commissioners from southern and
central Europe. Among the other opponents of the inclusion of nuclear in
the proposals are Austria’s Johannes Hahn, the EU budget commissioner, and
Portugal’s Elisa Ferreira, commissioner for cohesion and reforms, according
to two people with knowledge of their views.
FT 14th March 2023
https://www.ft.com/content/65ad412f-3700-4c5a-8efe-2a4c8c6d6341
Ukraine aims to produce full cycle of nuclear nuclear fuel production by 2026, exports to follow
WNN, 17 March 2023
Ukraine is intending to produce its own nuclear fuel within three years, with Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko saying that in the longer term the aim is to export to other countries.
Halushchenko, speaking during a visit with Energoatom President Petro Kotin to the plant where nuclear fuel will be produced, said: “Ukraine is one of the first countries that diversified the supply of nuclear fuel, and this made it possible to abandon its purchase from Russia. Our joint task with our American partners is to produce the appropriate types of fuel as soon as possible in order to displace Russia from the nuclear fuel market.”
He said he hoped that in the future Ukraine could become a supplier of nuclear fuel for countries including the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Finland and Bulgaria.
…………… specialists will produce fuel components using Westinghouse technology.” These components will be used for the production, at the Westinghouse plant in Sweden, of nuclear fuel used by Energoatom’s nuclear power plants.
“It is planned that in three years we will start a full cycle of nuclear fuel production in Ukraine – 2026 is the date when we will be able to fully produce our Ukrainian fuel from components manufactured here……….
https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Energoatom-looking-to-produce-nuclear-fuel-by-2026
Saudi crown prince is plotting to get US nuclear secrets by playing the White House, Russia, and China off against each other, report says
Business Insider Tom Porter ,Mar 15, 2023,
- Saudi Arabia’s de-facto ruler is seeking to pit major powers against each other, a report said.
- Mohammed bin Salman reportedly believes it will help him secure US nuclear technology.
- Saudi Arabia has snubbed the US and drawn closer to rivals including China.
Saudi Arabia’s de-facto ruler, Mohammed bin Salman, is trying to get better access to US nuclear technology by playing global powers against each other, Saudi officials told The Wall Street Journal.
In recent months, Saudi Arabia has provoked the ire of the US, traditionally its closest international ally, while drawing closer to US adversaries including China and Russia.
Analysts have told Insider that the move appears to be part of a power play by Crown Prince Mohammed, amid perceptions that US influence in the region is waning.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Crown Prince Mohammed may be using its relations with China and Russia to establish a closer US security relationship…………………………………………………………………………….
The balancing act appears to be based on the calculation by Saudi Arabia that the US will be forced to offer concessions to the Saudis in order to maintain the alliance and offset the growing influence of China.
A civilian nuclear program and better access to US weapons have long been core Saudi objectives, and Riyadh said last week that they would be the price for normalizing its relations with Israel.
US officials are wary of providing nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia, The New York Times reported, as they believe the Saudis could seek to develop nuclear weapons, amid fears that Iran is again gearing up its nuclear program. https://www.businessinsider.com/mohammed-bin-salman-playing-us-secure-nuclear-technology-saudi-report-2023
Libyan general says uranium reported missing by UN nuclear watchdog IAEA has been recovered
ABC News 16 Mar 2023
Several containers of natural uranium reported missing by the UN’s nuclear watchdog in war-torn Libya are found, according to a general with one of the country’s two rival governments.
Key points:
- The IAEA reported the 10 drums of uranium ore concentrate missing in Libya on Wednesday
- It says reaching the site — that is not under government control — required “complex logistics”
- Estimates put Libyan stockpiles of yellowcake uranium at some 1,000 metric tonnes under the regime of the late dictator, Moamar Gaddafi
General Khaled al-Mahjoub — commander of eastern strongman Khalifa Haftar’s communications division — said on his Facebook page that the containers of uranium had been recovered “barely 5 kilometres” from where they had been stored at Sabha, some 660km south-east of Libya’s capital, Tripoli, in the country’s lawless southern reaches of the Sahara Desert…………………………………………………………… more https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-16/un-nuclear-watchdog-says-tonnes-of-uranium-missing-in-libya/102108314
UK government is urged to “come clean” over the real cost of Sizewell C nuclear power station
Ministers must “come clean” over the cost of the planned Sizewell C
nuclear power station, MPs have heard. Alan Brown, the SNP’s energy
security spokesman, sought guarantees about the Suffolk project, given the
increasing costs for building Hinkley Point C in Somerset. Speaking at
Cabinet Office questions, Mr Brown (Kilmarnock and Loudoun) said: “In
2016, Hinkley Point C was estimated to cost £18 billion. “The latest
update is Hinkley Point C is going to cost £33 billion. “Now, the UK
Government wants to replicate Hinkley Point C at Sizewell C. “Why then
are they still estimating the cost for Sizewell C at £18 billion and when
are they going to come clean about the real cost?”
Irish News 16th March 2023
Alarm over 10 drums of uranium missing in Libya
Approximately 2.3 tonnes of natural uranium have gone missing from a site
in Libya not under government control, according to the United Nation’s
nuclear watchdog. The UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has
told the organisation’s member states that 10 drums containing uranium
“were not present as previously declared” at the location in Libya.
The missing uranium stockpile could pose radiological risk and security
concerns, the agency has said. The IAEA sounded the alarm after a visit by
its inspectors to the undisclosed site earlier this week, where it found
less uranium than originally reported. Currently, officials are working to
locate the 2.3 missing tonnes.
Engineering & Technology 16th March 2023
Watchdog Rafael Grossi pledges ‘demanding’ oversight of nuclear sub deal
the first in the decades-long span of nuclear non-proliferation accords to take advantage of a loophole that allows narrow use of nuclear material outside of set safeguards. Critics express concern that bad actors could use the loophole as cover, pointing to the U.S.-Australia deal as precedent, to divert nuclear material into a weapons program.
BY ELLEN KNICKMEYER, ASSOCIATED PRESS – 03/15/23
WASHINGTON (AP) — The head of the global nuclear regulatory agency pledged Wednesday to be “very demanding” in overseeing the United States’ planned transfer of nuclear-powered submarines to Australia, amid complaints that the U.S. move could clear the way for bad actors to escape nuclear oversight in the future.
Rafael Grossi, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, spoke to reporters during a Washington visit. Grossi was also meeting with senior National Security Council officials to discuss matters including the newly announced deal among the United States, Australia and the United Kingdom on nuclear-powered submarines.
President Joe Biden and the leaders of Australia and the United Kingdom announced Monday in San Diego that Australia would purchase nuclear-powered attack submarines from the U.S. to modernize its fleet amid growing concern about China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. It would be the first transfer by a nuclear-weapon state of nuclear-powered submarines to a non-nuclear state.
Nuclear-powered submarines move more quietly and for longer than conventionally powered ones. While strengthening the military position of the U.S. and its allies in that region, the deal has raised concern as the first in the decades-long span of nuclear non-proliferation accords to take advantage of a loophole that allows narrow use of nuclear material outside of set safeguards. Critics express concern that bad actors could use the loophole as cover, pointing to the U.S.-Australia deal as precedent, to divert nuclear material into a weapons program.
China renewed its objections to the deal on Wednesday, accusing the three countries of “coercing” the IAEA into endorsing the arrangement. All member states of the IAEA should work to find a solution to the “safeguards issues” and “maintain international peace and security,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said at a daily briefing.
…………. The architects of nuclear nonproliferation accords left open a loophole for use of nuclear material for some non-explosive military purposes, with nuclear naval propulsion in mind. Prior to withdrawing nuclear material from safeguards for that loophole, states are required to strike a separate agreement with the IAEA. https://thehill.com/homenews/ap/ap-international/former-australian-pm-says-subs-worst-deal-in-all-history/
Some countries plan to decentralize control of nuclear weapons in a crisis. Here’s why that’s dangerous.
Bulletin, By Giles David Arceneaux | March 14, 2023
With the Doomsday Clock now set at 90 seconds to midnight—the closest it has ever been to marking imminent global catastrophe—the collapsing global nuclear order presents a dire challenge. Among growing nuclear risks, Russia’s persistent nuclear threats throughout its war in Ukraine have increased the likelihood of nuclear use and thus threatened to undermine the long-standing tradition of the non-use of nuclear weapons. For its part, North Korea—which tested more missiles in 2022 than in any other year on record—promulgated a new nuclear doctrine that explicitly allows for the first use of nuclear weapons in a conflict.
But as scholars and policymakers grapple to confront these challenges, a reality complicates their policy responses: The current nuclear landscape presents different challenges for nuclear stability than during the Cold War—and policymakers and analysts alike are unprepared for it.
Even though it remains the most influential reference for US nuclear policymakers and scholars, the United States’ Cold War experience cannot explain—even less predict—behavior in the modern nuclear era. Analysts must now consider how new factors—such as resource limitations, domestic instability, and emerging technology—affect their old concepts and theories in nuclear politics.
………. Although numerous factors affect strategic stability, one component of nuclear policy has clearly gained importance in the modern nuclear era—although not in policy discussions: the command and control of nuclear weapons…………………………………………….
Nuclear-armed countries may desire robust command and control systems, but in doing so they face a fundamental problem known as the “always/never dilemma” to describe the dual imperatives of command and control. While leaders need to signal that their nuclear forces are reliable and capable of retaliating against an enemy’s attack under any circumstance, they also prefer to retain centralized political control over the decision to use nuclear weapons. That is, “always” promotes arsenal reliability, whereas “never” promotes the safety and security of nuclear weapons.
Because these two imperatives are fundamentally in tension, resolving this dilemma has proved nearly impossible. For example, delegating the authority to use nuclear weapons to lower-level military commanders to increase arsenal readiness necessarily reduces centralized political oversight that protects against accidental and unauthorized nuclear use.
Ultimately, leaders have no choice but to make difficult tradeoffs between arsenal safety, security, and reliability when establishing nuclear command and control systems……………………………………
Timing matters. The Cold War framework comes up short in the modern nuclear era because it asks the wrong question when classifying command and control systems.
Leaders might prefer to centralize political control over nuclear weapons, but military operators remain required to deliver nuclear weapons. Even in countries with highly centralized political oversight of nuclear weapons, such as China and India, leaders must eventually delegate control to lower-level commanders to use nuclear weapons. https://thebulletin.org/2023/03/some-countries-plan-to-decentralize-control-of-nuclear-weapons-in-a-crisis-heres-why-thats-dangerous/
UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt accused of ‘£20bn gamble’ on nuclear energy and carbon capture
Campaigners say chancellor is in the grip of the fossil fuel and nuclear lobbies and is ‘squandering taxpayers’ money’
Guardian, Alex Lawson Energy correspondent, 15 Mar 23
Jeremy Hunt has been accused of wagering a “dangerous gamble on unproven technologies” in an effort to decarbonise Britain’s energy industry after ploughing more than £20bn into a series of projects.
In his budget speech, the chancellor confirmed plans to spend the money over the next two decades on carbon capture and low carbon energy projects; announced a competition to co-fund small nuclear plants and launched a consultation to classify nuclear as “environmentally sustainable”.
The government has created Great British Nuclear, a body designed to ease the creation of nuclear projects which are regularly delayed and over budget, and set a target for nuclear to “provide up to one quarter of our electricity by 2050”.
Hunt, who has been under pressure to respond to Joe Biden’s $369bn (£306bn) of climate subsidies, said: “Increasing nuclear capacity is vital to meet our net zero obligations.”
However, climate campaigners attacked the drive, which had no giveaways for the solar or wind industries.
Ami McCarthy, Greenpeace UK’s political campaigner, said: “This misguided budget shows the stranglehold fossil fuel and nuclear lobbies have on this government. Why else would it take such a dangerous gamble on unproven technologies?
“Squandering taxpayers’ money on nuclear reactors that don’t even exist yet and fanciful carbon capture is irresponsible, and does nothing to reduce our emissions now.
“Committing to £20bn over 20 years is frankly pathetic compared to the green growth investments being made in the US, EU and China.”
Helen Clarkson, chief executive of Climate Group, said: “This spring budget overlooks cheap and clean renewable energy, and instead rebrands nuclear as ‘environmentally sustainable’ and throws cash at carbon capture technology. This was a missed opportunity to renew the UK’s commitment to climate leadership.”
………….. Stuart Murphy, founder of tidal energy specialist TPGen24, said: “There is nothing environmentally sustainable about a finite resource which leaves a legacy of hazardous waste.”…………………. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/mar/15/jeremy-hunt-accused-of-taking-a-20bn-gamble-on-nuclear-energy-and-carbon-capture
Georgia’s big new nuclear reactors could be the last built in the US
Billions over budget and years behind schedule, the expansion of the Vogtle nuclear power plant signals that conventional nuclear projects are a dying breed.
Eric Wesoff, Canary Media, 13 March 2023
The first new nuclear reactor built in the U.S. in the last 30 years reached a milestone last week that brings it tantalizingly close to syncing up with the electrical grid and generating power for customers. But this is not the dawn of the long-threatened nuclear renaissance — it’s more like the swan song of the conventional nuclear industry in the U.S.
………….. Construction started for the two reactors in 2009, with plans to get them online by 2017, but the project is six years overdue and has cost utility customers well over $30 billion, more than double the original price tag. The Department of Energy’s Loan Programs Office provided about $12 billion in loan guarantees to help complete the project against a backdrop of spending freezes and lawsuits.
……………….
If and when Georgia’s two new Vogtle reactors become fully operational, they will be the first nuclear reactors to have completed the full licensing process under the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. All other reactors in operation began licensing before the NRC opened its doors in 1975.
It’s the end of the reactor as we know it
……….“Vogtle 3 and then Vogtle 4. And then most likely nothing,” said Gregory Jaczko, a former chair of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
…….The NRC has issued permits for eight more nuclear reactors to be built at or near existing plant sites in the U.S., but none of these are expected to be completed. Instead, the industry is betting on advanced nuclear reactors to save the day.
It’s a bad bet.
The Idaho National Laboratory has an optimistic timeline for the demonstration and test-bed reactors it expects will power up this decade, but the commercialization path for these experiments is uncertain. The advanced and small modular reactors (SMRs) under development face a raft of economic, regulatory, technological and temporal risks. This will translate to cost overruns, project delays and uneconomic power, with utility customers ultimately left holding the bag at some distant day in the 2030s or 2040s.
The advanced reactor closest to market in the U.S. is being developed by NuScale, which has a nonbinding agreement to build a first-of-its-kind SMR project in Idaho. The company has already raised its projected power cost from $58 per megawatt-hour to $89, even though it’s still years away from even beginning construction. The first module at the plant is set to begin commercial operation in December 2029, NuScale says, but nuclear project timelines are inevitably Pollyannaish and wildly off-base.
NuScale’s regulatory journey with the NRC has been long and arduous, and it’s far from over. Advanced reactors such as TerraPower’s Natrium, which are significantly different in design from existing light-water reactors, face an even steeper regulatory climb. And they’ll have to contend with broken or nonexistent supply chains because the more highly concentrated uranium fuels used by most advanced reactors are currently unavailable in large quantities outside of Russia.
Regardless of rosy messaging from DOE and the industry, it’s almost certain that Vogtle 3 and 4 are going to be the last big nuclear reactors coming online in the U.S. for a long time. https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/nuclear/georgias-big-new-nuclear-reactors-could-be-the-last-built-in-the-us—
Wiped out: Scientist’s ‘gigantic tsunami’ warning signals ‘grave threat’ to Sizewell C
The warning given yesterday by leading scientist Sir David King that London
and other UK coastal cities could be inundated in the future by a gigantic
tsunami reveals that coastal nuclear power developments in the South-East
of England would also be under a ‘grave threat’, says UK/Ireland Nuclear
Free Local Authorities English Forum Chair Councillor David Blackburn.
Sir David King was for seven years Chief Scientific Advisor to the British
Government. In widely reported press articles yesterday, Sir David warned
that a gigantic tsunami could hit Britain ‘at any time’ should there be a
landslide in the Canary Islands, which would trigger a huge wave headed for
this country.
In such an eventuality, coastal cities such as Portsmouth,
Plymouth and Southampton would be inundated and so too would London and the
Thames Estuary, and much of low-lying South-East England.
NFLA 14th March 2023
UN Secretary-General’s video message to the 58th Session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
This will be the first comprehensive IPCC report in nine years – and the first since the Paris
Agreement on Climate Change.
It could not come at a more pivotal time. Our
world is at a crossroads – and our planet is in the crosshairs. We are
nearing the point of no return; of overshooting the internationally agreed
limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius of global warming. We are at the tip of a
tipping point.
But it is not too late – as you have shown. Your report last
year clearly demonstrated it is possible to limit global warming to 1.5
degrees with rapid and deep emissions reductions across all sectors of the
global economy.
And your recent reports have also underscored the need to
act now. In less than nine months, leaders will gather at COP28 for the
first global stocktake to bring the world in line with the goals of the
Paris Agreement. They need solid, frank, detailed scientific guidance to
make the right decisions for people and planet.
They must understand the
enormous consequences of delay and the enormous dividends from making the
tough but essential choices. To accelerate the phasing out of fossil fuels
and close the emissions gap. To race to a carbon-free, renewables future.
And to secure climate justice, helping communities adapt and build
resilience to the worsening impacts.
UN Secretary General 13th March 2023
1 This Month
Shut down the radiation-damaged Heysham nuclear reactors now
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Say No to NASA’s Reckless Nuclear Reactor on the Moon
Say No to NASA’s Reckless Nuclear Reactor on the Moon
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