The misconception about Putin’s big red nuclear button
Spectator, Mark Galeotti, 16 Oct 22, There is a common misconception that the leaders of nuclear states have a ‘red button’ that can unleash Armageddon. As Vladimir Putin continues to hint at the use of non-strategic (‘tactical’) nuclear weapons in Ukraine, there is some comfort in the knowledge that it is not so easy.
Ironically, launching the kind of strategic nuclear missiles whose use would likely spiral into global destruction is somewhat easier than deploying the smaller weapons which – however vastly unlikely – could conceivably be used in Ukraine. These lower-yield warheads would need to be reconditioned in one of the 12 ‘Object S’ arsenals across Russia holding them, and then transported to one of 34 ‘base-level storage depots’. From there they would need to be loaded onto a bomber or mated onto a suitable other delivery system.
Given that Russia has not even used them since 1990, no one knows for sure what state they would be in, and likely no one still in service has any practical experience. There would presumably be a group of wary engineers gingerly thumbing their way through faded instruction manuals long before Putin could even give a fire order.
If he ever did, though, the process is mercifully much more complex that simply mashing a button in a moment of pique. Like his US counterpart, Putin is accompanied everywhere by an aide carrying the ‘nuclear briefcase’. Called the Cheget, this actually contains special communications gear that is used to issue and authenticate the president’s orders relating to a nuclear launch.
Chegets, which connect to the Kazbek nuclear command and control network. Were Putin so minded, his aide would activate his Cheget, and he would issue an encrypted launch command, which would be transmitted to them. Although there are protocols to deal with the theoretical possibility that both were out of action, such as if there had already been some decapitating strike against the High Command, generally at least one of the other two would need to validate the command.
Then, the approved order goes to the General Staff, which issues authorisation codes and targeting details. This would usually happen through the Strategic Rocket Forces’ command bunker at Kuntsevo, west of Moscow, or else the backup one at Kosvirsky in the Ural Mountains.
Again, in extremis, the command staff in the bunkers could launch without the command codes, had the General Staff also been eliminated……………………
This may all sound rather cumbersome. It is, and deliberately so, both to make absolutely sure that any commands really have come from the president, and to introduce some friction and delay into the process………………………..
What this also means is that were Putin somehow to go full Dr Strangelove, there are many other human beings in the chain of command. …………………
One of the secrets of command is never to give an order likely to be disobeyed. For Putin, it would be the beginning of the end, and he must know it.
However brutal Putin’s regime may be, this is not Stalinism. Although the Federal Security Service’s Military Counterintelligence Directorate is more concerned with watching the generals than hunting foreign spies, there are no hard-eyed political commissars waiting to put a bullet in the back of any officer’s head who disobeys an order. And that should be a comfort in these uncomfortable times. https://www.spectator.com.au/2022/10/the-misconception-about-putins-big-red-nuclear-button/
Biden authorizes more weapons for Ukraine
The US will send $725 million in additional military aid to Kiev from the Pentagon’s stockpiles. https://www.rt.com/news/564698-biden-pentagon-ukraine-weapons/ 15 Oct 22,
US President Joe Biden ordered an additional $725 million in weapons shipments to Ukraine on Friday. The White House did not specify what the latest disbursement will consist of, only that it would be yet another drawdown of Defense Department “defense articles and services.”
The Pentagon later clarified that the aid package will include an unspecified quantity of “additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS),” thousands of 155mm artillery rounds and more than 200 additional Humvees.
Earlier this week, the US vowed to expedite the shipment of two of the eight NASAMS air defense systems it has long promised to Ukraine. The new package, however, will not include any additional anti-air capabilities.
Washington and its NATO allies pledged to boost Ukraine’s air defenses following heavy Russian missile strikes on Ukraine on Monday and Tuesday. Moscow said that they were in response to “terrorist tactics” employed by Kiev, which included sabotage attempts at the Kursk nuclear power plant and the TurkStream gas pipeline as well as the truck bombing of the Crimea Bridge.
he US has been the strongest supporter of Ukraine since the start of Russia’s military operation, providing the country with billions of dollars in military and financial aid, as well as intelligence data. Washington’s deliveries to Kiev have included large quantities of heavy weapons, among them over 150 artillery pieces, 20 Mi-17 helicopters, 200 M113 Armored Personnel Carriers, hundreds of Humvees and at least 16 HIMARS. The list includes more than 1,400 Stinger anti-aircraft systems, over 8,500 Javelin anti-tank weapons and 32,000 other anti-armor platforms, as well as at least 700 Switchblade suicide drones and an undisclosed number of Claymore anti-personnel mines.
Biden has used his Presidential Drawdown Authority to authorize the transfer of “surplus” weapons from the Pentagon’s stocks for the 23rd time since August 2021. This year alone, the United States “has committed more than $17.5 billion in security assistance” to Kiev, the Department of Defense confirmed on October 4.
Putin Says No Need For Further Massive Air Strikes On Ukraine, Foresees End To Mobilization
Nearly eight months into his war against Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be striking a softer tone, saying he sees no need for continued massive air strikes and that a mobilization of troops to support his military operation will end in two weeks.
Speaking to journalists in Kazakhstan’s capital, Astana, on October 14, Putin said that Russia was willing to hold talks on ending the war, although they would need to be held with an international mediator if Ukraine comes to the table as well………………………………………………..more https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-end-mobilization-air-strikes-ukraine-war/32083657.html
Anti-nuclear campaigners have raised fears about a plan to turn Trawsfynydd into a test-bed for a new generation of mini nuclear power plants.
The Nuclear Decommissioning Authority which owns the Trawsfynydd
nuclear power plant site has signed an agreement with the Welsh
government’s development company, Cwmni Egino, to share information on
how best to redevelop the site. Cwmni Egino chief executive Alan Raymant
has said that they are focused on installing one of a new generation of
mini nuclear reactors developed by Rolls-Royce, with an aim to start on the
work by 2027.
But anti-nuclear campaigners CND Cymru, Cymdeithas y Cymod,
CADNO, and PAWB have released a statement opposing the plans and backing
renewables instead. “Wales is already a net exporter of electricity, and
the investment into true renewables like wave, wind, tidal, and sun will be
much more effective than the billions washed down the nuclear drain,”
they said. “We jointly call on the NDA to reconsider its support of
nuclear development in Wales, and Trawsfynydd and Wylfa in particular, and
further call on the UK and Welsh Government to invest in the green, clean,
and renewable future of wave, wind, and sun that we all deserve.”
Last month anti-nuclear campaigners have protested against plans for new nuclear
power stations to be built in Wales with a 70-mile march across Gwynedd and
Anglesey. Plaid Cymru Gwynedd Council leader Dyfrig Siencyn is among those
to have backed the plans for a new reactor at the nuclear power plant,
which employed 500 people when in operation between 1967 and 1993.
“There’s quite a strong anti-nuclear lobby, and they have been
demonstrating recently; we received a petition from them as a council,”
he told the Telegraph newspaper. “But I think we need nuclear energy if
we are serious about addressing the climate change emergency.”
Nation Cymru 14th Oct 2022 https://nation.cymru/news/anti-nuclear-campaigners-raise-fears-about-trawsfynydd-mini-nuke-test-bed-plans/
Low operating costs make the case for investing in utility-scale renewable projects
Renewables met 100% of global electricity demand growth during the first
half of 2022. So says the ‘Global Electricity Mid-Year Insights 2022’
from Ember, a global energy think tank. In fact, it says there was a 389
TWh increase in the demand for electricity in the first half of 2022
compared to the first half of 2021, whereas the rise in renewables supply
was actually a bit more – 416TWh.
That’s not surprising given that
renewables are getting so cheap- including in the UK, with wind and solar
the most prolificate new sources across world. However, that in turn may
create a bit of a problem for older renewables, set up under quite
lucrative subsidy schemes, based on now high gas prices, like the
Renewables Obligation in the UK. As I have noted in earlier posts, there is
pressure on them to switch to the more competitive CfD system. Certainly
the RO system is based on adding a subsidy to wholesale gas prices, so
something has to change, since gas prices are now so high. But there are
issues- will every supplier be happy to accept less earnings? They may drag
their feet.
The record-breaking run in power prices, particularly in
Europe, is creating a favorable investment case for solar and wind
projects, making it increasingly compelling to develop renewable assets
purely based on project economics. According to Norwegian consultancy
Rystad Energy, current spot prices in Germany, France, Italy, and the
United Kingdom would all result in payback of 12 months or less.
Considering the average monthly spot prices for August in these countries
were all well over €400/MWh and the relatively low operating costs of
renewables, investing in utility-scale projects appear to be a no-brainer.
Renew Extra 15th Oct 2022
https://renewextraweekly.blogspot.com/2022/10/renewable-booming-but-windfall-tax.html
Beware of Nuclear False Flag Blaming Russia
The video below – I do find their smart-aleck tone and flippancy rather annoying.
BUT – when you listen to what Zelensky says – these guys making fun of him do have a point.
Zelinsky wants to the US to pre-emptively nuke Russia
E. Michael Jones says if someone sets off a nuke, it will be the US, not the Russians, https://www.unz.com/kbarrett/beware-of-nuclear-false-flag-blaming-russia/ KEVIN BARRETT • OCTOBER 9, 2022,
Dr. E. Michael Jones issued a disturbing warning on this week’s False Flag Weekly News:
Col. (Douglas) MacGregor was on some platform yesterday saying that there is no evidence whatsoever that the Russians are planning to use nuclear weapons. They don’t need to. They have overwhelming military superiority at the moment as they’re building up for the fall offensive. So it seems to me what we’re really talking about here is America setting off a nuclear bomb and attributing it to Russia. In case you didn’t notice, they did this already with the pipeline, so why wouldn’t they do it with a nuclear weapon?
Jones’ warning comes amid signs that the US leadership is actively considering nuclear war. Joe Biden recently announced that the world is on the brink of nuclear apocalypse. His government seems to be preparing for that eventuality:
On Wednesday, the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) announced that it would spend $290 million to secure an undisclosed quantity of Amgen’s blood disorder drug Nplate, which has been approved to treat blood cell injuries caused by acute radiation syndrome (ARS) in both children and adults.
The Union of Concerned Scientists agrees that a civilization-ending nukefest is closer than ever. Their Doomsday Clock is currently set to “doom’s doorstep”— 100 seconds from midnight. That is the worst “doom setting” since the Doomsday Clock was inaugurated in 1947.
Biden and the mainstream media are pre-emptively blaming Putin. They say that Russia is losing, growing desperate, and likely to resort to a nuclear strike.
But militarily experienced analysts like Col. Douglas MacGregor and Larry Johnson beg to differ. They point out that the vaunted Ukrainian advances are relatively insignificant. As Johnson writes:
Rolling across wide open plains represents a feel good moment, but this territory is not defensible once Russia decides to counter attack…Russia is baiting Ukraine to take territory and then face the task of trying to take a city Russia holds, such as Kherson…Ukraine will have to conduct a frontal assault on the city of Kherson and, in order to do this, will have to mass troops and equipment that will be easy targets for Russian artillery, missiles and bombs.
If Russia were really losing, wouldn’t the sanctions-flouting nations representing 85% of Earth’s population quickly capitulate to the US, cut off their trade with Russia, and beg for Uncle Sam’s forgiveness? And wouldn’t the Saudis and the rest of OPEC+ side with Biden rather than Putin? But that isn’t happening. On the contrary, it seems that most world leaders are betting on the Russians, not the Americans. They know the actual military score. They know that the pre-war Ukrainian military is mostly destroyed, that Ukraine has taken atrocious losses, and that the mad dashes against undefended empty plains are a desperate PR stunt, not a real threat to the success of the Russian SMO. The Russians are currently massing for their winter offensive, and when it comes, Ukraine will lose everything it has gained and then some, setting the stage for a decisive resolution to the conflict.
So it is the Ukrainians and their American neocon backers—not the Russians—who are desperate. How desperate? Well, Zelinsky wants to the US to pre-emptively nuke Russia, that’s how desperate.
Across Europe, USA and NATO to hold a show of their nuclear weapons
NATO’s annual nuclear exercise gets underway, NATO News, 14 Oct. 2022
Air forces from across NATO will exercise nuclear deterrence capabilities involving dozens of aircraft over north-western Europe starting on Monday (17 October 2022). The exercise, which runs until 30 October, is a routine, recurring training activity and it is not linked to any current world events. [Ed. oh yeah! Pull the other leg!]…………………………..
Exercise “Steadfast Noon” involves 14 countries and up to 60 aircraft of various types, including fourth and fifth generation fighter jets, as well as surveillance and tanker aircraft. As in previous years, US B-52 long-range bombers will take part; this year, they will fly from Minot Air Base in North Dakota. Training flights will take place over Belgium, which is hosting the exercise, as well as over the North Sea and the United Kingdom. …………………………………
NATO’s goal is a safer world for all; we seek to create the security environment for a world without nuclear weapons.“ [Ed. Whaa aa t?] https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_208399.htm
Ukraine has de facto joined NATO says Ukraine’s defense minister
https://www.rt.com/news/564616-ukraine-nato-reznikov-stoltenberg/ 14 Oct 22, Kiev is already making a substantial contribution to the “security of the free world,” Aleksey Reznikov claimed
Ukraine is a de facto member of the NATO alliance, despite not having officially joined the US-led military bloc, Kiev’s Defense Minister Aleksey Reznikov has claimed.
He made the statement in a tweet following a meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the bloc’s headquarters in Brussels on Wednesday.
“We have come a long way and have de facto joined the alliance,” the minister wrote, while also thanking Stoltenberg for his support for Ukraine amid its ongoing conflict with Russia.
“Ukraine is already making significant contributions to the security of the free world,” the minister added.
Reznikov also expressed confidence that victory over Moscow and “successful reforms” domestically would “open up new horizons” for his country, seemingly a reference to Ukraine officially joining the bloc at some point in the future.
Russia views NATO’s eastward expansion as a major security threat. When Moscow launched its military offensive against Kiev in late February, one of its key demands was for Ukraine to officially declare itself a neutral country that would never join any Western military alliance.
On September 30, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky filed an application to join NATO and called for an accelerated admission procedure for his country.
However, Kiev’s backers in the West have not appeared overly enthusiastic on the issues. Stoltenberg has pointed out that “any decision on membership has to be taken by consensus” by all 30 NATO members and that its top priority right now is to “support Ukraine” militarily and financially during the conflict.
Washington voiced a similar stance, with US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan saying earlier this month that the question of Ukraine joining NATO “should be taken up at a different time.”
A statement in support of Kiev’s bid for swift accession has been backed by just nine member states – the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.
Europe is still quietly importing Russian nuclear energy
CNBC, Sam Meredith @SMEREDITH19 14 Oct 22,
- Russia’s nuclear fuel industry remains conspicuously untouched by European sanctions more than seven months into the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine
- Despite eight rounds of sanctions, shipments of nuclear fuel to EU member states continue to make their way from Russia.
- Ariadna Rodrigo, EU sustainable finance manager at environmental group Greenpeace, told CNBC that it is “absolute madness” for the bloc to continue bankrolling the Kremlin by ignoring Russian nuclear trade.
………………………………………………. Russia’s energy influence goes beyond oil and gas
In April, a European Parliament resolution called for an “immediate” embargo on Russian imports of nuclear fuel and urged member states to stop working with Russia’s state-run nuclear giant Rosatom on existing and new projects.
But Russia is a dominant player in the global nuclear fuel market and any move to break the EU’s reliance on its services would likely be far from pain-free, particularly with Rosatom at the heart of Europe’s dependency……………
There are 18 Russian nuclear reactors in Europe, in countries including Finland, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria and the Czech Republic. All of these reactors rely on Rosatom for the supply of nuclear fuel and other services.
Underlining the scale of Russia’s nuclear energy influence in some member states, even as the Kremlin’s onslaught in Ukraine continues, Hungary in late August announced the construction of two new nuclear reactors by Rosatom.
Moscow accounted for almost one-fifth (19.7%) of the EU’s uranium imports last year, according to the latest available data from the Euratom Supply Agency. Only Niger (24.3%) and former Soviet republic Kazakhstan (23%) were bigger suppliers of uranium to the bloc. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/14/ukraine-war-europe-is-still-quietly-importing-russian-nuclear-energy.html
Germany, France, Italy, conserve energy, but the UK government rejects energy conservation
In Germany, shops must keep their doors closed to avoid heat escaping on
cold days, illuminated advertising boards have to be switched off by 10pm,
and in some public swimming pools only cold showers are available.
In France, there will be no “temeparture police”, energy transition
minister Agnès Pannier-Runacher has promised, but the country’s
“sobriety” energy-savings push asks that homes and offices are not
heated above 19 degrees centigrade. Commuters are also being asked to
car-share, and mountain resorts have pledged to reduce the speed of ski
lifts at off-peak times.
Italy has launched what has been dubbed
“Operation Thermostat” – limits to the temperature that public
buildings can set the air conditioning at in the summer and the heating
during winter. People have also been encouraged to limit the duration of
showers, the time ovens are switched on, and to use the dishwasher and
washing machine only when fully loaded.
In Britain, it is sometimes easy to
forget that there is an energy crisis. As the nation grapples with yet
another implausible leap in household bills, the festive lights started
going up on London’s Oxford Street at the end of September – almost three
months before Christmas Day. That the lights have been replaced by LED
versions this year is perhaps somewhat overshadowed by the fact that there
will still be 300,000 individual bulbs on display.
As one shopper reportedly remarked: “Lights already? We don’t even know if we’ll be able
to turn ours on this Christmas.” At the heart of this strange disconnect
is the Government’s ongoing refusal to even talk about the concept of
conserving energy, never mind encourage people to turn down the thermostat.
Not even a warning of winter power cuts from the National Grid is enough to
convince the Cabinet of the merits of promoting energy conservation.
Telegraph 14th Oct 2022
France’s national embarrassment: half of its nuclear reactors to remain out of action for months
France’s nuclear reactors will not work as normal any time soon. The
trouble will persist well into next year. when edf, the French energy giant,
warned in May that nuclear-electricity production this year would be lower
than previously forecast because half its reactors were out of action, the
timing could not have been worse.
Thanks to its nuclear industry, France is
usually Europe’s biggest net exporter of electricity. The closures turned
the country into a net power importer for the first time, just as the
continent faced an energy crunch. When in September edf then announced that
even by 2024 output would still be well below normal levels, the problem
became a national embarrassment.
France’s current nuclear troubles are
partly due to routine maintenance of the country’s 56 reactors, half of
which are about 40 years old. Each ageing reactor needs periodically to be
shut down, on a rotating basis, for inspection. During the pandemic,
scheduled maintenance was interrupted by lockdowns. The real crunch,
though, came after corrosion issues were detected in late 2021 at one
pressurised-water reactor. By this September no fewer than 25 reactors were
out of action: ten for routine maintenance, the rest for corrosion analysis
or repairs.
Economist 13th Oct 2022
Ukraine gets highly anticipated arms from Germany – Spiegel
https://www.rt.com/russia/564488-ukraine-germany-iris-system 13 Oct 22,
Kiev has received the IRIS-T air defense system even before Berlin’s own military.
Ukraine has received the first of four IRIS-T SLM air defense systems from Germany, Der Spiegel reported on Tuesday. With its own weapons stockpiles seriously depleted, Germany is gifting this ultra-modern system to Kiev before its own forces.
The system – which comprises a command vehicle, a radar vehicle, and a truck-mounted launcher capable of firing eight missiles – was handed over to the Ukrainian military next to the Polish-Ukrainian border on Tuesday, the German magazine reported.
The handover took place four days after German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht made an unannounced visit to Ukraine, where she promised her Ukrainian counterpart, Aleksey Reznikov, that his country would receive the IRIS-T “in a few days.” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz pledged to provide this system to Ukraine back in June, with delivery initially slated for November.
In an update on Monday, Lambrecht said that Russia’s devastating missile strikes on Ukrainian military and infrastructure targets that morning showed “how important it is to supply Ukraine with air defense systems quickly.”
Berlin has promised Ukraine at least four IRIS-T systems, each of which can supposedly strike incoming missiles up to 40 kilometers (25 miles) away. Ukraine has reportedly asked Germany for at least a dozen of these systems, and offered to purchase them directly from the manufacturer, Diehl Defense.
Germany’s own military has yet to field a single ground-based IRIS-T system, with the remaining three pledged to Ukraine yet to be manufactured, Der Spiegel reported. Germany has faced persistent criticism from Kiev for its supposed hesitance in donating sufficiently heavy weaponry, but the arms it has sent have left its own stocks depleted.
Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock warned of “absolute deficits” in Germany’s weapons stocks in August, and a report by Business Insider on Saturday revealed that the Bundeswehr (German Army) has only enough ammunition for two days of warfare.
Russia open to talks with West: Lavrov
Canberra Times, 12 Oct 22, Moscow is open to talks with the West on the war in Ukraine, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov Moscow says, which Washington has dismissed as “posturing” because Russia continues to strike Ukrainian cities.
In an interview on state television, Lavrov said Russia was willing to engage with the United States or with Turkey on ways to end the war, now in its eight month, but had yet to receive any serious proposal to negotiate……………………..
Lavrov said officials, including White House national security spokesman John Kirby, had said the United States was open to talks but that Russia had refused.
“This is a lie,” Lavrov said. “We have not received any serious offers to make contact.” https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7938759/russia-open-to-talks-with-west-lavrov/?cs=14264
German Greens lay out nuclear power extension position amid coalition infighting
DW 15 Oct 22, The Green Party decided to support reserve operation of nuclear power plants in Germany, but rejected procurement of new fuel rods. Their party conference coincides with a conflict in the coalition on the issue.
…………………………………………. No to new nuclear fuel
The issue has also put Habeck in a difficult position with the party grassroots, given the Green Party’s longstanding objection to German nuclear power and the pride it took in being part of the first government to declare that the country would stop using it altogether.
The Greens said their red line on any nuclear extension would be the procurement of new nuclear fuel elements. The Greens would not agree to any legal regulation in the Bundestag that would procure new nuclear fuel.
Party co-leader Ricarda Lang said in the debate that new fuel rods or a return to nuclear power “will not happen with us.” Renewable energies need to be expanded, and “nuclear power is not the future,” Lang said.
Habeck also described a return to nuclear power as “wrong”, adding: “There’s no way that’s going to happen to us.”
As for the reserve operation of the two nuclear power plants, he said that “we shouldn’t rule out this contribution from the outset” because of the emerging gap in the energy supply…………………………….. more https://www.dw.com/en/german-greens-lay-out-nuclear-power-extension-position-amid-coalition-infighting/a-63449846
Stockpiling iodine tablets in Europe, as fears rise over dangers in Zaporizhzhia nuclear station
The war in Ukraine has heightened fears about nuclear exposure – and
interest in iodine pills that can help protect the body from some
radiation. Concerns have grown in recent weeks over periodic power cuts to
the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant that have increased the risk of a meltdown.
And threats from Russian President Vladimir Putin that he will use “all
means necessary” to win the war in Ukraine has raised the specter of
nuclear warfare.
Some countries in Europe have started stockpiling the
tablets and pharmacies in Finland began to run low on the pills after that
country’s health ministry recommended households buy a single dose in case
of emergency.
Daily Mail 13th Oct 2022
1 This Month
of the week– Nuclear Reactor Information Task Force
14 May – online event From Bombs to Data Centres: the Face of Nuclear Colonialism
To see nuclear-related stories in greater depth and intensity – go to https://nuclearinformation.wordpress.com
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