British energy supplier Centrica is prepared to “walk away” from a planned investment in the Sizewell C nuclear plant
British energy supplier Centrica is prepared to “walk away” from a
planned investment in the Sizewell C nuclear plant, according to its chief
executive. In an exclusive interview with Energy Voice, Centrica chief
executive Chris O’Shea said “there are a number of criteria we have to
consider to invest in the project”. “We’ve said that we are part of the
Sizewell C process but there are a number of criteria we have to consider
to invest in the project,” O’Shea said. “If these are not met, the
right thing to do would be to walk away to protect the business.”
The UK-based supplier owns a 20% stake in the nuclear power stations, amounting
to a 9 terawatt-hour capacity out of a total of 45 TWh. “When the
conditions are right, we’ve seen how good investing in nuclear can be for
Centrica,” said O’Shea. He added that access to that nuclear power
capacity “will be very valuable to the company and to the UK’s energy
system”. “New nuclear will play a crucial role in the future energy
system, however we will only invest if the risks-and-rewards balance is
right for us,” he said. “If it is not right for us, we will not
invest.”
Energy Voice 23rd Dec 2024 https://www.energyvoice.com/renewables-energy-transition/nuclear/564808/centrica-prepared-to-walk-away-from-sizewell-c/
Poland threatens to arrest Netanyahu at Auschwitz
https://www.rt.com/news/609773-israel-arrest-pm-poland/ 24 Dec 24
Warsaw has to comply with the International Criminal Court’s decisions, the deputy foreign minister has said
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would be arrested if he attends next month’s ceremonies marking the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz in Poland, the EU country’s deputy foreign minister, Wladyslaw Bartoszewski, told newspaper Rzeczpospolita on Friday.
Warsaw’s top diplomat stated that Poland, as a signatory of the Rome Statute, is obligated to comply with the directives of the International Criminal Court (ICC). In November, ICC issued warrants for the arrests of Netanyahu and former Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant, citing alleged war crimes related to the ongoing conflict in Gaza.
The court accused Netanyahu and Gallant of using starvation as a method of warfare, alleging they deliberately deprived civilians in Gaza of food, water, and medicine. There was “no obvious military necessity” for such actions, which amount to violations of international law, according to prosecutors.
Israel’s Education Minister Yoav Kisch is expected to be the only government representative at the Auschwitz commemoration, Jerusalem Post reports. The participation of President Isaac Herzog “seems unlikely.”
While all 27 European Union member states are parties to the Rome Statute and thus required to enforce ICC arrest warrants, responses to the court’s decision have varied. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has openly invited Netanyahu to visit, assuring him that Hungary would not enforce the arrest warrant.
Conversely, countries like Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium, Ireland, Lithuania, and Slovenia have indicated their intent to comply with the ICC’s directives, regardless of diplomatic immunity.
France initially expressed its intention to adhere to the arrest warrant but later cited diplomatic immunity protections for Netanyahu.
The ICC’s actions have elicited strong reactions from Israeli officials. Prime Minister Netanyahu has likened the arrest warrants to a “modern-day Dreyfus affair,” asserting that they are politically motivated.
Auschwitz was a Nazi concentration and extermination camp in occupied Poland during World War II. Over 1.1 million Jews were murdered there, alongside tens of thousands of others, including Poles and Soviet prisoners of war.
Trump suggests Zelensky consider ceding territories – El Pais
COMMENT. We may not like Donald Trump much.
But sometimes he gets it right.
https://www.rt.com/news/609772-trump-zelensky-territorial-claims/ 24 Dec 24
America’s president-elect has reportedly relayed the message this week.
US President-elect Donald Trump has sent a message to Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky, asking him to start thinking about a ceasefire and to abandon claims to territories that are currently under control of Russia, El Pais reported on Sunday.
Trump has repeatedly pledged to end the Ukraine conflict within a day of taking office, but has yet to elaborate on how he plans to achieve this. His vows have raised concerns in Kiev that it may be facing not only a decline in aid but also an audit of the billions of dollars it has received from the White House under President Joe Biden.
“You look at some of these cities and there is not a single building in good condition left. So, when you say “restore the country,” restore what? This is a 110-year reconstruction,” the Spanish newspaper cited Trump as saying in a “message” to Zelensky from his Florida golf club this week.
Earlier this month, Trump called on both Ukraine and Russia to reach an immediate ceasefire. He posted the call on his social media platform Truth Social after meeting in Paris with Zelensky and President Emmanuel Macron.
The Wall Street Journal reported in early December, citing officials, that Trump had said Western Europe should deploy its troops to Ukraine to monitor a potential ceasefire. He reportedly added that the EU should play the main role in defending and supporting Kiev, while Washington could support the effort without sending troops.
Speaking at his end-of-year press conference on Thursday, Russian president Vladimir Putin reiterated that Moscow remains open to negotiating with Kiev without any preconditions, except those that had already been agreed upon in Istanbul in 2022, which envisaged a neutral, non-aligned status for Ukraine, as well as certain restrictions on deploying foreign weaponry. He also noted that such talks would have to respect the realities on the ground that have developed since that time.
Will the legacy of nuclear power ever disappear from our coasts?
BANNG 17th Dec 2024,
https://www.banng.info/news/regional-life/nuclear-power-legacy/
Andrew Blowers tackles this ongoing question in the December 2024 issue of Regional Life magazine
Back in the last century a fleet of nuclear power stations emerged, their bulky and threatening presence dominating peaceful and often precious, protected coastal environments. Now most have been retired and are in the long process of decommissioning and waste management before all traces of their existence can be erased a century or more from now. Or not…. If plans for new nuclear fructify, then the nuclear presence on our coasts may never disappear.
It is a little difficult to recall Bradwell in past times, a sinister presence on the low shoreline, with its silent reactors and the turbines howling throughout the night; its garish lighting polluting the night sky. Today Bradwell power station is silent and in darkness, its turbines demolished and its reactors shrouded within a huge box clad in grey and blue.
The ecological impact of nuclear power stations is both visible and invisible. Within these structures dangerous radioactive wastes are stored for generations and the risks of radioactive releases, accidental or deliberate (cyber, warfare, terrorism) are incalculable. And, in the age of accelerating climate change, these plants are at risk from sea-level rise, storm surges, flooding and erosion which will inflict yet more grief on future populations.
For existing stations and those currently under construction, there are plans to adapt to changing conditions through massive sea defences and removal of the wastes to a deep repository – if a suitable host rock and willing community can be found. This will be a daunting challenge but greatly exacerbated if a fleet of new nuclear stations is built, leaving vast volumes of wastes to be managed indefinitely on vanishing shores into the far future.
Hinkley Point C
The gigantic Hinkley Point C on the Somerset coast is currently the largest construction site in Europe with a 12,000 workforce and drastic shortage of accommodation for local people. Once operating, it will kill millions of fish, sucked in through its cooling water intake pipes. EDF, the developer, is trying to avoid providing mitigating Acoustic Fish Deterrents (AFD), perversely hoping that by the creation of a saltwater marsh, fish and other marine life will automatically migrate there.
New nuclear is already impacting environments in Somerset and the Suffolk coast is afflicted by preparations for Sizewell C.
Sizewell C
The site lies within a designated National Landscape adjacent to the RSPB’s flagship sanctuary at Minsmere as well as to other designated sites. SZC has not yet got the finance to go ahead but the demolition of a treasured woodland and trashing of other areas has already scarred a wide area in preparation for roads, rail lines, transformer buildings. All in advance of a project that may never materialise. These are premature, wanton acts of vandalism.
Fortunately, the destruction already endured in Somerset and that beginning in Suffolk can be avoided in Essex where proposals for a giant, new nuclear power station which would have inflicted untold damage on the marine and terrestrial environments of the Blackwater region were pushed back by BANNG and other stakeholders.
Now nuclear’s moment may be passing and our energy future lies in other directions, far less dangerous and with far less damaging impacts on the environment for future generations to cope with.
HS: Olkiluoto 3 has been a financial catastrophe for Areva, Siemens
Helsinki Times 19th Dec 2024 Finland , https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/25890-hs-olkiluoto-3-has-been-a-financial-catastrophe-for-areva-siemens.html
THE THIRD REACTOR of Olkiluoto Nuclear Power Plant has been a financial disaster for the two plant suppliers, France’s Areva and Germany’s Siemens, writes Helsingin Sanomat.
Helsinki guide
Teollisuuden Voima (TVO), the company operating the plant, communicated last week that the suppliers have pledged to inject an additional 80 million euros in capital into a fund set up to guarantee the completion of activities during the warranty period.
“The funds reserved for their completion in the fund mechanism were depleted in the autumn of 2024” the company wrote in a press release issued on 12 December.
The third plant unit has experienced numerous faults and disruptions since it was officially inaugurated in 2022. TVO ordered the plant from the suppliers under a turnkey agreement for a fixed price of roughly three billion euros more than 20 years ago. The groundbreaking ceremony was held in 2005, with the completion date set for 2009.
Ultimately, the unit was completed 14 years behind schedule, with the original budget comfortably exceeded. The unit began commercial electricity production in mid-2023.
Helsingin Sanomat on 12 December reminded that Areva estimated already in 2012 that the plant would ultimately cost around 8.5 billion euros. The endeavour eventually bankrupt the company, resulting in intense talks in 2016 as the French government decided to incorporate healthy parts of the company into the state-owned Électricité de France (EDF). The concern was that the plant supplier would not be left with the funds and expertise to complete the project.
Aldermaston nuclear bomb factory makes explosives error
By Niki Hinman, Local Democracy Reporter, 21 Dec 24
Aldermaston’s nuclear bomb making factory AWE has been ordered to
improve procedures after damaging an explosives component. The Office for
Nuclear Regulation (ONR) has served an improvement notice on the Atomic
Weapons Establishment following an incident at its Aldermaston site.
Newbury Today 21st Dec 2024 https://www.newburytoday.co.uk/news/awe-told-to-improve-by-nuclear-regulator-after-explosives-er-9397154/
France’s most powerful nuclear reactor joins grid after €13bn holdup
RFI 20th Dec 2024
France’s flagship Flamanville nuclear reactor in Normandy was to start supplying electricity to homes on Friday when it’s reconnected to the power grid after a dozen costly years of technical setbacks.
…………………………………………. The start of the new generation European Pressurized Reactor (EPR) comes 12 years behind schedule after a slew of delays and cost overruns.
The cost of the project, initially estimated at €3.3 billion, has ballooned to over €13 billion.
A test run in September had to be interrupted after one day due to an “automatic shutdown”, before starting again days later.
Betting on nuclear
Flamanville 3 is the fourth EPR reactor in the world and the most powerful in France, with a capacity of 1,600 MW. It is the 57th reactor in the French nuclear fleet, which generates around three fifths of the country’s energy.
France continues to bet on nuclear as a way of providing relatively cheap and carbon-free electricity.
The government has committed to building six new-generation EPR2 reactors at a cost of tens of billions of euros, with plans to eventually increase this number to 14.
But questions remain about EDF’s ability to deliver on its ambitions. The energy giant is already heavily in debt, as is the French state – EDF’s sole shareholder……………………………… https://www.rfi.fr/en/france/20241220-france-s-most-powerful-nuclear-reactor-joins-grid-after-%E2%82%AC13bn-holdup-flamanville
Foreign company withdraws from plans for Swedish nuclear power.
South Korean KHNP has withdrawn from discussions with Vattenfall about possibly
building new nuclear power in Sweden. KHNP is one of three companies that
have been considered for building large-scale, conventional nuclear power
in Sweden. “The evaluation of other suppliers is progressing according to
plan,” writes Vattenfall to Ekot.
Swedish Radio 18th Dec 2024 https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/sydkoreanskt-foretag-hoppar-av-diskussioner-om-svensk-karnkraft
Starmer backs minister accused of embezzling billions in Bangladesh
Tulip Siddiq denies claims that she brokered corrupt deal with Russia to build nuclear power plant.
Keir Starmer has given his full support to Tulip Siddiq, the Treasury
minister, after Bangladesh’s anti-corruption commission accused her and
family members of embezzling billions as part of a deal for a nuclear power
plant. Siddiq, whose role as economic secretary to the Treasury includes
responsibility for tackling financial corruption.
She has denied any involvement in the claims. While Downing Street strongly defended her, it
is another headache for Starmer after a turbulent few months that included
the sudden departure of another minister, the former transport secretary
Louise Haigh.
Guardian 19th Dec 2024m https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/dec/19/labour-minister-accused-of-involvement-in-embezzling-billions-in-bangladesh
Regulator warns against delays in work on Chernobyl’s shelter
“Further delays in the implementation of the project to dismantle the unstable structures of the Shelter under the NSC shell increase the risk of their collapse, which could lead to extremely negative consequences.“
WNN, 20 December 2024
The head of the State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate of Ukraine, Oleg Korikov, has urged against any further delays in the project to dismantle the unstable shelter facility, which was built at speed in 1986 to cover Chernobyl’s damaged unit 4.
He was speaking during a meeting of backers of the International Cooperation Account for Chernobyl, which was established in November 2020 by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) at the Ukrainian government’s request to support a comprehensive plan for Chernobyl. The EBRD had already led the project to fund and construct the New Safe Confinement building which is now in place covering the whole of the reactor involved in the accident, including the initial shelter built around it in a matter of months.
Korikov said that equipping the New Safe Confinement with the necessary equipment and the dismantling of the unstable structures of the original shelter had already been postponed because of funding issues. This work was an integral part of the three-stage international Shelter Implementation Plan, which was firstly to stabilise it – the 2008 work gave it a design life to 2023 – and secondly to build a larger secure construction to enclose it – the New Safe Confinement (NSC) which was completed in 2017 – which would then pave the way for the dismantling and decommissioning stage.
“Further delays in the implementation of the project to dismantle the unstable structures of the Shelter under the NSC shell increase the risk of their collapse, which could lead to extremely negative consequences. This state of affairs causes serious concern for the State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate of Ukraine,” he said.
The Shelter Object – also known as the ‘sarcophagus’ – still contains the molten core of the reactor and an estimated 200 tonnes of highly radioactive material. The stability of the structure has developed into one of the major risk factors at the site.
The licence for the storage of radioactive waste within the shelter was extended last year from 2023 to 2029, with a 2025 deadline for the development of a new design for the dismantling of “unstable structures with an unacceptably high probability of collapse”, and a 31 October 2029 deadline for completion of the dismantling.
In October it was announced that a new study was being funded by the International Chernobyl Cooperation Account which aims to determine the scope of deconstruction work for unstable Shelter structures and provide an initial cost estimate and enable the beginning of design work for the dismantling of the unstable Shelter structures………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
The New Safe Confinement is the largest moveable land-based structure built – with a span of 257 metres, a length of 162 metres, a height of 108 metres and a total weight of 36,000 tonnes equipped…………….. https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/articles/warning-against-delays-in-work-on-chernobyls-old-shelter
U.S. Corporate Land Grab in Ukraine Underlies War With Russia
Heralded as a hero in Western media, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has allowed foreign private interests to steal his country’s best land
Jeremy Kuzmarov, Dec 20, 2024 Originally published in CovertAction Magazine
In early November, Barbara Bonte, a Belgian member of the European Union (EU) parliament, raised concern about the sell-off of Ukrainian land on a massive scale to U.S. private equity firms along with some Saudi agro-industrial and investment businesses.
Bonte wrote to the EU parliament that, “according to several disquieting reports, mainly U.S. but also Saudi agro-industrial and investment businesses are purchasing Ukrainian farmland on a massive scale. Cargill, ADM, BlackRock, Oaktree Capital Management and Bunge Limited, for instance, have reportedly gained control over much of Ukraine’s farmland.”
Bonte then posed two questions to the EU parliament as follows:
“1. What is the Commission’s assessment of the impact of this sell-off of European farmland to multinationals serving only U.S. interests on EU strategic food-supply dependence? How does the Commission intend to address that impact?”
“2. This strongly suggests that the United States is seeking to recoup its military support for Ukraine, and ensure a geopolitical presence there in a post-war scenario through control over Ukrainian farmland and the profits it generates. How does the Commission intend to prevent the United States from cherry-picking in Ukraine and Europe from being left to deal with just the handicaps?”
Bonte’s questions are significant ones that point to a hidden, underlying motive to the war in Ukraine and U.S. and European support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The bonanza offered to foreign investors resembles past wars where young people were sacrificed on the altar of corporate profits.
War and Theft
A detailed analysis of the land grab in Ukraine by Western corporations was provided in a 2023 report by the Oakland Institute[1] entitled “War and Theft: The Takeover of Ukraine’s Agricultural Land.”
Written by Frédéric Mousseau, a food security consultant, and Eve Devillers, a Ph.D. candidate at Cornell University, the report starts by emphasizing Ukraine’s function as a “breadbasket of Europe” with its 33 million acres of arable land and “large swaths of the most fertile farmland in the world.”
In 2021, Zelensky initiated a land reform program as part of the structural adjustment program begun under the auspices of Western financial institutions that enabled U.S.-based corporations to take over Ukraine’s land.[2]
The structural adjustment program had been opposed by Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who was overthrown in the 2014 U.S.-backed Maidan coup.
After Zelensky’s “land reform” was initiated, about five million hectares—the size of two Crimeas—were outright “stolen” by private interests.
The thieves included Goldman Sachs, a Wall Street investment firm well represented in the Biden administration, which in April 2022 bought NN Investment Partners Holding N.V., a Netherlands-based company that is a major shareholder in Ukraine’s biggest landowner, Kernel Holding S.A, and in Astarta, another large landowner in Ukraine.[3]
Vanguard Group Inc., which gave $45,473 to Kamala Harris in the 2024 election and $98,551 to Joe Biden in 2020, was another Wall Street firm that bought up Ukrainian land cheaply.[4]
Some large U.S. pension funds, foundations and university endowments are invested in Ukrainian land through NCH Capital—a U.S.-based private equity fund headquartered at Rockefeller Plaza in New York, which is the fifth largest landholder in Ukraine with its possession of 290,749 hectares.[5]
NCH Capital currently faces accusations of unlawful land acquisition, tax evasion, and illicit financial activity. In 2015, its founder and CEO, George Rohr, was part of the high-level meetings involving Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko and U.S. Commerce secretary Penny Pritzker that led Ukraine to agree to the structural adjustment program of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as a condition for two $1 billion loan guarantees from the Obama administration.[6]…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
The Oakland Institute report compares the generous financing of multinational corporations and local oligarchs with the inability of Ukrainian small farmers to access loans and their being displaced from their land and plunged into poverty. Some have migrated to the U.S. to seek farm work in the U.S. Midwest, sending remittances back home.[9]
Mousseau and Devillers wrote that “the Partial Credit Guarantee Fund established by the World Bank to support small farmers is only US$5.4 million, a negligible amount compared to the billions channeled to large agribusinesses.” https://jeremykuzmarov.substack.com/p/us-corporate-land-grab-in-ukraine?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=2091638&post_id=153373724&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1r1sdz&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
“I don’t care if its tainted money”: Council leader’s telling admission in Nuclear Waste Services cash grab debate
Nuclear Free Local Authorities, 16th Dec 2024
In a busy week for GDF developments, East Lindsey District Councillors were last Wednesday (11th December) engaged in a fractious debate over proposals to accept £3 million in money from the Environment Agency to carry out coastal defence works. The controversy arose because the money originated from the coffers of Nuclear Waste Services.
It is of course in the interests of NWS to invest in coastal defences because they would not want to see any Geological Disposal Facility sited in Mablethorpe or Theddlethorpe inundated in the future by flooding. The surface site would be operable for up to 175 years, receiving regular shipments of high-level radioactive waste shipments. Flood waters could render the facility inoperable far in advance of this end date.
Local members, Cllrs Travis Hesketh and Robert Watson called the proposal “pure blackmail”. Councillor Watson issued a caution that accepting the money will mean the district council “surrenders its independence” to NWS. Councillor Jill Makinson-Saunders echoed this sentiment, which was shared by many opposition members in the chamber, saying “If we are taking money from the nuclear people, we cannot fly the flag for independence”. In response to his critics, Council Leader Craig Leyland said “I don’t care if its tainted money”.
Despite the strength of opposition, the Conservative Minority Administration, with the support of some opposition members, were able to secure sufficient votes to approve the proposal.
The decision must again cast doubt on the supposed impartiality of the district council over the GDF proposal. There is within the report put before Council an admission that this is infact the case; under a section titled ‘Reputation’ it says:
‘There is risk of perception of predetermination for GDF facility due to the source of funding being NWS. This will be mitigated by providing clear information in public domain at all stages of work on full transparency basis’.
In addition, as the proposal will require East Lindsey District Council to find another source of finance to carry out the work were it to disengage from the GDF process, the Council is in effect curtailed from exercising its Right to Withdraw and it will certainly not be inclined to call for a Test of Public Support within twelve months, as agreed by Council at a previous meeting and as just again asked for by local MP Victoria Atkins.
The decision comes hot on the heels of a decision made by the Executive at Lincolnshire County Council to seek a Hosting Agreement with the NWS and government promising millions if a GDF comes to Lincolnshire.
‘Long journey ahead’ for nuclear plant clean-up
Piers Hopkirk, BBC News, Dungeness, 16 Dec 24
It took about 16 years to build Dungeness B nuclear power station, but to return the site to its original state will take nearly a century.
This is the scale of the task facing EDF as the company continues the process of removing the uranium from this decades-old facility that sits on a remote headland on the Kent coast.
The turbines stopped turning at Dungeness in 2018 and, with the decision taken to cease electricity production, the process of defueling the plant has begun.
In the giant reactor hall the scale of the task becomes apparent.
Buried under the floor are the uranium-filled fuel assemblies that powered the station’s two nuclear reactors.
There are more than 400 rod-filled assemblies in each reactor and it will take six years to safely remove them all.
It is done with the help of a giant 2,000 tonne crane that will carefully lift each one out before moving them into another part of the plant to cool.
Plant Manager, Paul Windle, said: “So far we have removed around 25% of the fuel from one reactor.
“We have got a long journey ahead.”
From the reactor hall the fuel ends up in an area called the ponds.
The fuel, still hot, is stored under water here for 90 days before it is deemed safe enough to be placed into steel flasks which will be moved on to lorries to begin the journey to a nuclear waste facility at Sellafield in Cumbria.
Dungeness B was the first advanced gas cooled nuclear reactor to start construction in the UK.
It was at the vanguard of 20th Century nuclear power generation.
However, in the face of technical challenges that were seen to be too expensive and complicated to address, the decision was taken by EDF to halt energy production………………………………………………………….. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz7qvderej9o
Europe fears nuclear catastrophe: This plant sets off all alarms due to risk of explosion
Eco News by Sanusha S.. 12/14/2024
The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), located in eastern Ukraine, has been a focal point of global attention due to the conflict in this country. The Russian troops captured this plant in 2022 and since then have faced a multitude of threats like fire, military action, or damage to infrastructure. Notwithstanding clarifications from nuclear safety experts regarding the safety precautions taken at plants, it has been a severe reminder of the need for urgent global protocols to guard against those facilities during armed conflict.
……………………………………………………………..Zaporizhzhia: A plant which is embattled in a nuclear fire unprecedented conflict
This is the most unprecedented scenario: a nuclear plant turned into military target. Constant shelling, drone strikes and even presence of landmines on the premises intensifies risk of nuclear incident because of the occupation of ZNPP by Russian forces.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has sent inspectors and even suggested creating a demilitarized safety zone around the site, thus, these measures remain unimplemented. The agency has identified that all seven pillars of nuclear safety are compromised at Zaporizhzhia. These include protection of critical infrastructure and prevention of military use of the facility……………………………………….
https://www.ecoticias.com/en/europe-fears-nuclear-catastrophe/9437/
On Ukraine war, will Trump channel JFK or LBJ?
Walt Zlotow, West Suburban Peace Coalition, Glen Ellyn IL, 17 Dec 24.
Donald Trump will inherit Joe Biden’s proxy war against Russia in Ukraine on January 20.
Biden has made clear he’ll never negotiate an end to his failed war that includes any concession whatsoever to Russian security interests. Biden is furnishing Ukraine with billions more in weaponry to prevent a Ukraine collapse on his watch. He’ll be damned if he allows a US defeat in Ukraine in his last year to bookend his accepting a US defeat in Afghanistan in his first year.
That presents a huge dilemma for Trump whose who routinely called for a quick end to this senseless war during his successful campaign.
But just like in his first term, Trump may be trumped on negotiating peace and disengagement by the US war party. Trump achieved nothing in terms of détente with North Korea, China, Iran, Russia or cutting America’s bloated 34,000 troop presence in NATO Germany. He may also fall victim to the same dread Biden has of being president when Ukraine does sue for peace, losing four provinces, committing to neutrality between East and West, including no NATO membership as the basis for a ceasefire.
Trump’s situation recalls the dilemma both JFK and LBJ faced over US involvement in America’s lost war in Vietnam 611 years ago.
JFK inherited his predecessor Ike’s 700 ‘advisors’ and Vietnam and ironclad US commitment to keep South Vietnam free from communism. By the end of 1962 Kennedy hiked the advisors to 11,000, incurring over 50 deaths in their non-combat role.
But by spring of 1963 JFK, more a realist than fanatical Cold Warrior, understood that no US presence could save South Vietnam from defeat. He began to secretly plan for a full US withdrawal. In May, 1963 he had Defense Secretary Bob McNamara draw up a withdrawal plan. Kennedy made this plan official policy with his National Security Action Memorandum 263, dated October 11, 1963. It called for withdrawal of 1,000 advisors by December and rest of the now 16,000 personnel out by the end of 1965. The 2 year gap to complete the US pullout was due to waiting till after his reelection to avoid political pushback from Republicans that could jeopardize his reelection.
This was US policy on the day JFK died. Had Kennedy lived there is no basis for believing he would not follow through on his pledge to end US military involvement in Vietnam.
When Lyndon Johnson became president, he immediately cancelled National Security Action Memorandum 263. His administration, Congress, the military and compliant national media all rallied around the fiction of complete continuity between JFK and LBJ on Vietnam. Johnson began pouring in more advisors before pivoting to direct US warfare after he hyped the August, 1964 Gulf of Tonkin incident to militarize US action against North Vietnam. LBJ famously remarked ‘I’m not going to be the first US president to lose war’.
In so doing Johnson destroyed his presidency and his legacy, along with over 58,000 soldiers killed, 150,000 inured, of which 21,000 were permanently disabled.
That is the dilemma Trump most likely is grappling with today. Will he follow thru with his campaign pledge to end America’s proxy war with Russia without total victory for our Ukraine proxies? Or will Trump succumb to the tragic Lyndon Johnson syndrome of continuing to pour hundreds of billions in US treasure, if not US lives, into a lost cause America should never have provoked.
Based upon Trump’s sorrowful record of caving to the war party in his first term, the latter course is the safer bet. But we should all work to push President Trump on Ukraine to channel JFK, not LBJ.
1 This Month
26 September – International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons
PLEASE OPPOSE HR 8255 AND S.3639 – bills would accelerate satellite deployment, with no environmental review or safeguards – https://ncstd5li.quorum.us/campaign/169331/
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