Why We Must Oppose Israel’s Dangerous Gamble Before It’s Too Late

Failure to stop Israel’s genocide of Palestinians gambles with the fate of humanity as a whole.

Kathy Kelly, Aug 10, 2024,
https://www.laprogressive.com/foreign-policy/israels-dangerous-gamble

Following World War II, Albert Camus posed a “formidable gamble” to those who had survived a tragedy of immense proportions. “We’re in history up to our necks,” he observed, yet we must wager that “words are more powerful than munitions.”

“Leave or die” are the horrid words threatening largely unprotected Palestinian civilians in Gaza as dismayed populations around the world demand moral decency, or at least some indication of sanity, from their non-responsive governments.

The stakes couldn’t be higher. For decades, Israel has flouted international norms by refusing to acknowledge its nuclear weapons arsenal. Nor has it signed relevant treaties governing the biological weapons it possesses. For years, Israel has flagrantly violated the Geneva Conventions and basic principles of customary international law through its forcible acquisition of territories in the West Bank and East Jerusalem and through its transfer of Israeli settlers into the Occupied Palestinian Territories.

Now, Israel’s genocidal attacks against Palestinians living in Gaza have cost the lives of at least 39,677 people. Tens of thousands more are believed to be buried beneath the rubble, with at least 90,000 wounded and the overwhelming majority of its displaced 1.9 million population facing starvation.

Israel’s failure to comply with international treaties and humanitarian law signal an acute need for other countries to organize weapons embargoes, cease trade deals, and provide support for civilian peacekeepers to bring about a permanent ceasefire.

Instead of unwavering adherence to international law, the United States continues to arm and protect Israel’s genocidal campaign against Palestinians, which now includes using starvation as a weapon of war.

We must try to absorb what it means to live as a refugee in an open-air concentration camp—already one of the most densely populated areas on Earth, even before 70 percent of its housing was destroyed. More than 341 mosques and three churches have been destroyed. 2,000-pound bombs have been dropped on tents in places deemed safe areas.

Innocent civilians are being killed by snipers. Thirty-one out of thirty-six hospitals have been damaged or destroyed. Escape routes are cut off. Persistent restrictions on the flow of humanitarian aid into and around Gaza are driving a desperate shortage of food, fuel, and medicine. As access to humanitarian relief is deliberately choked off, children are being collectively punished while Israeli leaders denounce them as animals. The world watches in horror as surgeons are forced to amputate the limbs of wounded children with no available anesthetics.

A new polio epidemic emerges while Israel vaccinates its soldiers but leaves the Palestinian civilian population vulnerable. Newly released prisoners have said they were subjected to torture, including being waterboarded and raped.

Rather than bring suspects before international courts, Israel has resorted to assassinations of the very negotiators with whom it purports to be seeking peace, and in a manner clearly intended to expand the conflict into a global war involving multiple nuclear-armed nations.

In its July 19, 2024, authoritative Advisory Opinion on Israel’s Settlement Policy and Practices, the World Court clearly declared the Israeli settlement project in the Occupied Territories to be illegal. The Court outlined the obligation of all parties to the Geneva Convention and the Genocide Convention to discontinue any economic or trade dealings with Israel which might help perpetuate Israel’s occupation and unlawful presence in the territory. Countries that signed or ratified these agreements are obligated to immediately stop arms exports to Israel and to use political, military, and economic influence to stop Israel’s flagrant, escalating violations of international humanitarian law.

The World Court has provided strong, clear words denouncing Israel’s genocide against Palestinians. As during the Vietnam War, ordinary citizens can no longer abide with the lawless barbarism of continuing assaults against Palestinians.

“Rolling the bones” is a slang expression for gambling. With a regional war perhaps now unavoidable in the Middle East, the genocidal derangement of the United States and Europe over Israel’s actions may well lead to a nuclear war that ends the human species. Failing to use our words at this most crucial juncture for humanity would be, as Camus said, a formidable gamble indeed.

August 14, 2024 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Atrocities, Gaza, Israel | Leave a comment

Israel Suddenly Has A Problem With Attacks On Population Centers

Caitlin Johnstone, 13 Aug 24, https://www.caitlinjohnst.one/p/israel-suddenly-has-a-problem-with?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=82124&post_id=147648103&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1ise1&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

Israel has been loudly and melodramatically fretting about an impending retaliatory attack from Iran and Hezbollah which it claims will likely include strikes in the vicinity of civilian population centers. This is of course rich coming from the regime that has spent ten months turning Gaza into a flattened wasteland of rubble and civilian corpses.

A Washington Post article titled “Israel anticipates direct attack from Iran; U.S. deploys more vessels to region” contains the following interesting paragraph:

“Israel has communicated to Iran and Hezbollah that targeting civilian population centers would be considered a red line for Israel, which is preparing for a spectrum of scenarios, including one in which Hezbollah attacks first and is joined by Iran afterward, said Yoel Guzansky, a former official on Israel’s National Security Council who is now a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.”

Israel’s fretting about attacks on its population centers is echoed in a recent Axios post titled “New Israeli intelligence suggests Iran prepares to attack Israel within days,” whose Israeli intel sources “said the attacks by Hezbollah and Iran are likely to be bigger than the one conducted by Iran last April and include the launching of missiles and drones at military targets in central Israel, including in the vicinity of civilian population centers.”

This claim that Iran may launch attacks “in the vicinity of civilian population centers” is funny in a couple of different ways. Firstly, the IDF headquarters is located smack dab in the heart of Tel Aviv, so any attack on the hub of the Israeli war machine would necessarily occur in the vicinity of civilian population centers. Secondly, it’s funny because Israel has spent years justifying its attacks on Palestinian population centers by claiming Hamas is using “human shields” by surrounding themselves with civilians to deter attacks.

Placing a legitimate military target in the heart of a civilian population center and then declaring a “red line” against attacking civilian population centers where legitimate military targets are located—after launching an insanely escalatory assassination in Tehran — is obviously using civilians as human shields. And what’s wild is that Israel’s own claims about Hamas using human shields in the same way have been conclusively debunked, firstly by the self-evident fact that the presence of civilians obviously doesn’t deter Israeli attacks at all, and secondly by revelations that the IDF deliberately waits to launch airstrikes on suspected Hamas members until they are at home with their families, thereby ensuring the maximum number of civilian deaths possible.

It goes without saying that Israel does not have any sincere concern for civilian lives, at least for anyone who’s paid attention to its actions at any time between the state’s inception and today. But it is worth highlighting these contradictions anyway, to contextualize all the histrionic garment-rending we’re going to witness should an attack on or near civilian population centers occur in the coming days.

August 14, 2024 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Israel, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Desperate for escalation, did Zelensky bomb Zaporozhye Nuke Plant in Frustration ?

The biggest issue currently is that the much stronger than usual fog of war has allowed Western/pro-UA sources to completely confabulate various fake “advances” in the Kursk region. Virtually every new map from Western sources, whether ISW, the various articles posted above, etc., are currently completely phony. In fact, the AFU was driven out of every deep advance in the Kursk region, and now occupy only a small area around Sudzha.

Desperate for Escalation, Zelensky Bombs Zaporozhye Nuke Plant in Frustration [Excellent extracts and maps on original]
Simplicius, Aug 12, 2024 https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-81124-desperate-for-escalation?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1351274&post_id=147536911&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=c9zhh&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

Today Zelensky’s forces appeared to bomb the Zaporozhye nuclear plant:

Russian sources says it was a Ukrainian drone that hit the Zaporizhzhia NPP.

At around 9:00 pm today, Ukrainian militants attacked the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant using a kamikaze drone.

Preliminary reports suggest the drone was launched from Nikopol in the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine.

The drone operator appeared to have targeted the plant deliberately the Russian sources say.

Still unconfirmed until we see material indicating the cause of the fire

Zelensky of course blamed Russia, even though, interestingly, he stated Russians began “burning tires” to create the smoke, when even the IAEA above heard loud explosions, despite again being ordered by their masters not to directly name the culprit:

Reportedly some machinery inside one of the cooling towers was set ablaze, but the 6 reactors of Europe’s largest power plant have already been in ‘cold shutdown’ mode, and are said to be in no real danger…for now.

However, most significant to ongoing events is the correct analysis of why Zelensky would choose to strike the plant just now. It is obvious to us that it represents a terminal desperation from the AFU, which can only mean that their situation on the ground is in fact grinding to a culminating point, which answers one of the chief questions we’ve had about the ongoing Kursk adventure.

There was still some hesitation on my part on whether the Kursk madness was truly a sign of an AFU reaching its critical end point or not, though mostly I leaned on the affirmative. However, the latest desperate move seems to fully avow this interpretation of events. But, I believe there are a few multi-varied nuances to properly interpreting Zelensky’s threatening signal.

First: it can be said that this act of desperation was a strong signal to Zelensky’s own “partners” in the U.S. and the West. I predicted long ago—last year—that once things finally grind down to the gristle for Ukraine, Zelensky would have no choice but to begin threatening his partners through escalation to save his own hide. He would threaten not only pushing Russia’s red lines in unnerving ways which would pose the threat of nuclear annihilation to the U.S., but as a last ditch effort he would also float the threat of unveiling many secrets and ‘skeletons in the closet’ of his Western partners as blackmail.

But what’s happening now is in effect a double nuclear blackmail. Not only was Zelensky trying to reach the Kursk nuclear plant for this very purpose, but has now acted out his furious frustration at the ZNPP, as well. It’s difficult to know for certain, but captured AFU POWs have in fact now attested to the Kursk plant as being the objective, or Kurchatov, the town where the plant sits. This was supposed to have been reached in the first day or two, which now appears to have been a miserable failure being covered up by more antics.

But getting back to the second point. I believe the ZNPP strike was also a double threat toward Russia. ZNPP may be currently inactive, but Kursk is in operation, and Zelensky likely meant to send a symbolic message that the Kursk nuclear plant may be “next”. In essence, it is saying: “Be wary, the Kursk plant is in my sights. This is just the first demonstration of my seriousness.”

But why would Zelensky threaten his partners as well? The obvious answer is to shock them into providing more aid and committing totally to Ukraine’s victory. “Give us everything or we’ll take the entire world down with us in a ball of nuclear flame.” Funny how much similarity there is between Zelensky and Israel, what with their Samson Option and all.

The problem is that, more and more evidence is rolling out that not only is the Kursk offensive becoming a disaster, but that Zelensky sacrificed the Donbass front in order to pull this egregious stunt.

First we have a new Financial Times article which openly states that Ukrainian units were pulled from the Donbass front toward Kursk:

“We are going deeper said Denys, a Ukrainian soldier who has made three rotations into Russian territory since the incursion began. His unit, which the Ft is not identifying at te request of Denys and his senior officers, had been rotated to the area from the Eastern Donetsk region more than a week ago to take part in the offensive.” – https://www.ft.com/content/7dcb3009-ec9a-417a-b2e1-01c26c9349a0

The ultimate aim of Ukraine’s incursion — which is using some of its best and most elite brigades — remains unclear. But the operation has demonstrated that Russia’s border defences are still weak more than a year after Ukraine’s first mini-incursion and has given Kyiv a much-needed morale boost.

It further confirms the negotiations angle:

Analysts have said Ukraine may be seeking to use the Kursk offensive to improve its position in potential talks. It is losing territory and men in eastern Ukraine and is still struggling to resolve ammunition and manpower shortages.

Then came a new Economist article which confirmed the same thing:

“Ukraine’s shock raid deep inside Russia rages on

The surprise attack comes as Ukraine is under pressure in the Donbas”

First they do a little shoe-shining to balance out the negative reportage, then they hit us with the truth:

“‘We sent our most combat-ready units to the weakest point on their border,’ says a general-staff source deployed to the region. ‘Conscript soldiers faced paratroopers and simply surrendered.’ But other aspects of the operation indicate a certain haste in preparation. All three soldiers quoted in this article were pulled, unrested, from under-pressure front lines in the east with barely a day’s notice.”

Most damningly for the AFU, they admit that Russia, on the other hand, hardly had to shift reserves from Donbass:

“Russia has shifted troops from the Kharkiv front, but so far it has moved far fewer from the vital Donbas front. ‘Their commanders aren’t idiots,’ says the Ukrainian general-staff source. ‘They are moving forces, but not as quickly as we would like. They know we can’t extend logistics 80 or 100 km.’”

In short: Ukraine pulled its most elite units from vital fronts to carry out Zelensky’s mad pageant, while Russia for the most part didn’t, which explains why the Pokrovsk and Chasov Yar directions continue falling for the AFU as we speak; reportedly, Russia used around 80% rear reserves, with just 20% of detachments pulled from other areas, mostly owing to them already being close by—i.e. the 810th Marines were pulled from Volchansk front because of its proximity and their readiness.

Here’s another deeper explanation from a Russian source:

How did the Ukrainian Armed Forces manage to accumulate a group of six, eight, ten (insert the appropriate) brigades?

There are three to five brigades + reinforcement units operating in the Kursk direction. Formally. In reality, there is reason to believe that the group is made up of a couple of more or less homogeneous brigades (like the 22nd Separate Mechanized Brigade) and heterogeneous battalion (and possibly company) combat groups, hastily transferred from other sections of the front before August 6. The abundance of soldiers from different units and subdivisions, as well as the abundance of heterogeneous equipment, creates the illusion of a huge group.

The same 41st Separate Mechanized Brigade ( mentioned by the Ministry of Defense in its report) is a pretty battered unit. First, it suffered losses near Chasovy Yar. Then it was transferred to a “quiet” area near Toretsk-New York. On July 21, elements of the 41st Separate Mechanized Brigade caught Iskanders at the Barvenkovo station, and now its elements are in the Kursk region. Not enough time has passed between July and early August to make up for the losses in men and equipment. The same can be said about the “anti-heroes” of the unsuccessful defense of Ocheretin — the 115th Separate Mechanized Brigade, as well as the repeatedly beaten 80th and 82nd Air Assault Brigade.

All this gives reason to say that a rapid transfer of brigade elements was carried out, which were unlikely to go into battle in full force.

In the very opening paragraph of the Economist article, they describe how Russian glide bomb’s slaughtered their units:

Note the mention of Sumy hospital in the last sentence. Here they develop that thought:

But the accounts from Ukraine’s wounded suggest it has not been a walk in the park, and remains risky. The hospital ward reeks of the sacrifice: soil, blood, and stale sweat. Foil burn-dressings line the corridor. In the yard, the patients, some wrapped like mummies from head to toe in bandages, smoke furiously. Angol, a 28-year-old paratrooper with the 33rd brigade, looks like a Christmas tree. His left arm is immobilised in a fixation device. Tubes, bags and wires protrude from his body. He was also about 30km into Russia when his luck ran out. He isn’t sure if it was artillery or a bomb that hit him. Maybe it was friendly fire; there was a lot of that. All he can remember is falling to the ground and shouting “300”, the code for wounded. The Russians had been on the run up to then, he insists, abandoning equipment and ammunition as fast as they could.

What’s most notable about this, is our best first-hand, on-the-ground source from the region corroborates every word. A popular TG commentator I’ve mentioned before lives in Sumy and reports on the goings on. He’s provably reliable as he’s the first person who began talking about “massive AFU troop movements” through the city of Sumy a full week before the Kursk incursion began. He now reports:

👉👉👉 Exclusive information from this channel:

Yesterday almost 1000 wounded soldiers, both Russian and Ukrainian were treated in Sumy’s hospitals.

👉👉👉 Hospital admissions for wounded soldiers are now at almost 2000 in Sumy, even hospitals in Kharkov, Cherkassy and Kiev are being prepared. This includes both Russian and Ukrainian injured soldiers, however after the first batch of Russians, now most of the injured are Ukrainians.

So, there’s almost 2,000 mostly Ukrainian wounded flooding Sumy hospitals, with the “Russian” ones he mentions presumably being the dozens of captured POWs.

This is corroborated further by ongoing calls on Ukrainian channels for mass blood donation drives in Sumy:

Now, to be perfectly impartial for the sake of journalistic integrity, Ukrainian sources posted this alleged video of a Russian hospital worker complaining of a local hospital likewise being flooded with injuries:

However, I’ve tracked down a video of a real Kursk region hospital—perhaps even the one in question above—and it is by no means even remotely comparable to what is happening in Ukrainian Sumy hospitals vis-a-vis the killed and wounded flooding in.

Despite the fact that Ukraine has bloodied Russia a little bit, particularly via the HIMARS strike on a Russian reinforcement column, the losses continue to appear lopsided in Russia’s favor from everything I can see.

Getting back to the Economist article, they conclude by admitting it could be a Russian trap:

The source cautions against comparing the Kursk incursion to Ukraine’s successful swift recapture of much of Kharkiv province in late 2022. The Russian army is taking the war more seriously now, he says: “The danger is we’ll fall into a trap, and Russia will grind our teeth down.” On Sunday Russia’s defence ministry claimed, albeit not for the first time, that it had “thwarted” attempts by Ukrainian forces to break deeper into Russia

Now, more and more Western sources not only question the logic of this failing campaign, but even outright predict it leading to catastrophe for AFU.

Der Spiegel dropped this bombshell headline:

“The Kursk maneuver could mark the military end of Ukraine”

And what does Spiegel believe is the ultimate point of this “invasion”?

Once again (excuse the wonky auto-translation):

Better translation:

Gressel: The Ukrainian leadership wants to create pressure for possible negotiations with Russia. For this it needs negotiating leverage, which it now wants to gain with quickly and cheaply occupied territory.

When asked for the worst-case scenario, here’s how they respond:

Gressel: In Germany, the Wagenknecht camp would gain popularity. Ukraine could come across as an unreliable go-getter. Berlin and Washington would reduce their support. The Kursk maneuver could herald the military end of Ukraine.

Other articles have poured out, citing the goal of ‘destabilizing Russia’:…………………………………………………………………………..

All the earlier advances to as far as Komski Byki, Snagost, or Shagorovo have all been destroyed and pushed back. Russian reinforcements have created an impenetrable wall, and Ukrainian units are now digging in around Sudzha, desperately looking for a chink in Russia’s armor while being slowly destroyed by Russia’s growing aerial-drone dominance of the zone. Even Sudzha itself, which AFU proudly announced as having captured, is now in a kind of gray zone, with AFU certainly not controlling any part of the town, excluding the entrance stele in the northwest by which they took some TikTok photos.

Some videos from the area today:

Russian cluster attack on Ukrainian column:

Lancet strikes:

Here’s what the current frontline actually looks like, with the white circles representing how far Ukrainian DRGs initially pointlessly got by speeding past Russian defenses just to make it look like they were capturing territory—the red areas is where Russia has now retaken everything:

Russian military source update:

*️⃣ Kursk region . We are working on small enemy groups. There were small arms battles. Now we have cleared the nearest 6-7 kilometers.

They are trying to bypass the protected areas of the front and attack from the rear. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have started abandoning their combat equipment. They are running out of fuel, and we have already interrupted their supply of reserves. Their losses are serious. We continue to press.

The commander on site reports 🫡

Regiment named after Issa Pliev

Another quick overview explaining how Ukraine “captured” so much territory, when in reality it couldn’t hold any of it when Russian reinforcements came:

How did the Ukrainian Armed Forces manage to advance so quickly?

Several factors played a role: the abundance of wheeled vehicles, the priority of speed over consolidation, and the sparse combat formations of the Russian Armed Forces. Thus, Ukrainian units, bypassing resistance nodes, in some cases were able to slip through to a depth of 10-15 km in the first day. Another issue is that the mobile armored groups did not have sufficient weight, supplies, or survivability to hold the territory. As soon as the combat formations of the Russian Armed Forces were consolidated, the dashing runs on Ukrainian armored vehicles ceased. With the intensification of the work of UAV operators and army aviation, the ability to mass forces and armored vehicles disappeared. Now even individual armored vehicles are being hunted

– From the Kharkov operational direction (GV “North”) – units of the Russian 138th separate motorized rifle brigade (SMRB), from the 6th combined arms army (OVA) – to the combined reinforced motorized rifle battalion (MSB), the 44th army corps (AK), apparently, from its 128th SMRB and 72nd MRDB, is moving to the Kursk direction, up to 3 battalions

– From the Kupyansk direction, probably the 272nd motorized rifle regiment (47th tank division\td), obviously, also “posted” one motorized rifle battalion

– Up to 2 airborne assault battalions (AAB) have already been recorded, this is “on top” of the parachute assault battalion (PAB) of the 217th parachute assault regiment (PAR) of the 98th airborne division (AAD), which was in the Kursk direction BEFORE the visit of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. They are probably from the 104th airborne assault division (AAD) of the Dnieper Guards, from the Dnieper direction.

There is also information about the movement to the Kursk direction of at least one battalion of marines (OB MP) from the 810th separate marine brigade (OB MP), but I somehow don’t believe it… most likely, this is a battalion from the 155th separate marine brigade, which had previously been deployed and operated in the Volchansk direction.

– The remaining troops (forces) of the first echelon will obviously be made up of units (BTGr) from the 64th and 38th separate motorized rifle brigades (OMSBR) of the 35th combined arms army of the GV “East”…

Thus, we can state…

– In essence, those same “reserves” that the Russians are now pulling into the Kursk operational direction in order to “cut off” the offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces represent a real “hodgepodge” (a set of very diverse forces and means, with very different actual levels of their combat capability), obviously hastily assembled.

How to “put all this together” and manage it in a separate operational direction, as they say in a situation “on the fly”, with an obvious time deficit and “problems with monitoring the situation”, is a big question… The Russian command attempted to “pull this trick” in a very similar situation in the Kharkov region, and it ended in obvious failure and the retreat of Russian troops from it…

– At the moment, the Russian command is acting in a completely understandable algorithm, solving two main tasks – “minimization” (containment) of the Ukrainian Armed Forces offensive on a scale (i.e. in its pace and scope), and trying to gain time for the operational deployment of additional forces and resources in a new operational direction, which, obviously, arose for the Russian command “out of plan” and suddenly…

– And finally, I have no reliable information that the enemy has begun to move any additional forces (reserves) to the Kursk region from key areas for itself – Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk or Kurakhovsk, where it is conducting an offensive… And this, obviously, looks quite eloquent…

But, in this context, I would like to note that the situation in the Kursk operational direction obviously has, so to speak, “significant potential”…

Probably, the Russian command will have to quickly deploy a second echelon of ADDITIONAL forces and resources (its reserves) in the Kursk operational direction (quite possibly within the framework of the GV “North”), because it is already obvious that the 10-11 battalions “hastily grabbed” in different directions and of different units and formations will not fundamentally solve the problem there…

In this regard, it will be very interesting to see who and what this “second echelon” will consist of

And here’s Starshe Eddy’s good overview of the current phase of the offensive:

1. It is clear to everyone that the offensive has been stopped for the moment. The enemy is twitching, trying to expand the bridgehead. According to the prisoners, apparently, their task was to really take Kurchatov. And this task was thwarted by the defense of conscripts and border guards in the city of Sudzha. Having an advantage in forces, means, and holding the initiative, the enemy could not take control of it for a long time.

2. It is clear that they are trying to expand the bridgehead and are introducing reserves. But, judging by the fact that their equipment has started to “dry up” [lack of fuel], and the initiative is fading away. This is one of the signs that a second strike can not be expected. That is, new major breakthroughs can not be expected. This does not mean at all that we need to fold our arms and shout “Hurray! We won!” No, but this is one of the markers that the enemy is running out of steam. They are digging in, it will be very difficult to dig them out of the Kursk soil. But how do military people look at this? The number of targets is a sea. For “lancetists”, FPV-shniks – a sea of work, which means ours see them, and this is good. There will be a result. The enemy’s equipment will be destroyed.

3. Should we expect raids from them in other directions? We should. They may well twitch. The fact that we are transferring forces and resources from one front to another shows once again that we do not have enough forces and resources to launch a large-scale offensive. And of course, we still need to make tougher and more solid decisions regarding the war, etc. Because it is very difficult to fight with such forces and resources.

4. Based on the results of this Ukrainian offensive near Kursk, we must now take the President’s words as a basis and finally begin to form a buffer zone. We must stand in Sumy, Chernigov, at a minimum, encircle and then take Kharkov, otherwise we will have no peace day or night from this mad pig.

Just as we discussed last time, last night Ukrainian forces did attempt to probe at least two new directions on the Belgorod front, where I had mentioned forces were accumulating. Recall I had guessed they would go for Grayvoron area, because if you know tactics, it’s one of the few remaining viable areas—and voila, it’s roughly where they struck. They reportedly gathered up to 1 regiment with 100 pieces of mostly light equipment in Bohodukhiv, on the Ukrainian side just south of Grayvoron

They incurred both into Bezymeno, which you can see is right next to Grayvoron checkpoint:

Also into Poroz, on the other, northern side of Grayvoron:

As well as somewhere in the direction of Belaya, just south of Sudzha and north of Grayvoron:

Both of these attacks were beaten back by Russian forces. To use the Zaporozhye offensive as a parallel, the first raid into Sudzha and beyond was the main thrust out of Orekhov and Mala Tokmachka. Now, these secondary probes are equivalent to Ukraine’s initial probes around Vremevka ledge, down into Staromayorske, Urozhayne, etc.

So, for now their main axes have been blunted with a lot of losses and destroyed equipment, but they are supposedly still pulling up remaining reserves while reconnoitering any openings to make a secondary foray. Recall that in the Zaporozhye offensive they did eventually succeed in a couple of the secondary directions—for a while at least, so Russia is not fully out of danger yet. However, it’s looking increasingly favorable for the Russian side as Ukraine has already expended a lot of material for very little gain.

So while there is some danger that Ukraine could still make some advances, with each day that passes, it’s looking more and more unlikely. Russian reserves are being pulled up and while the AFU is digging in around Sudzha, this could spell their doom. That’s because Ukraine’s main success in the opening part of the operation relied on speed in total preference over consolidation of any terrain. Russian units were caught a bit flat-footed, many of which were merely “bypassed” by swift wheeled Ukrainian light vehicles.

But if Ukrainian chooses to dig in and transition the front into another artillery slug-fest, Russia will drown them in a sea of glide-bombs and massive artillery overmatch, destroying their static positions and turning it into another Khrynki-like bloodbath for the AFU. In fact, some have even suggested Putin may again “delay” their expulsion from the territory. I don’t think—as some others believe—it was a totally deliberate trap on the part of the Russian MOD, to lure the AFU into Kursk, but now that they’re here, Putin may take advantage of it by delaying their expulsion in order to openly grind up the AFU’s last remaining elite units, just like in Khrynki. After all, never interrupt your opponent when he’s making a grave mistake—if he presents an opportunity to defeat him at scale in a way that could accelerate the end of the war, then why not?

Don’t forget, the long-rumored “true offensive” was going to focus on the Zaporozhye plant in Energodar. Rezident-UA channel believes that could still be the play, with the Kursk as the first misdirection phase. Zelensky may have signaled such intentions by bombing ZNPP today, showing his obsession with the plant remains a primary focus.

Rezident UA:

#Inside
Our source in the General Staff said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk direction involved 2 thousand military personnel, now they are waiting for additional reserves that are accumulating in Sumy. The new offensive campaign of the Ukrainian Army consists of several stages, the main blow will be focused on the Zaporizhzhya NPP, while the Armed Forces will carry several more distracting operations in Russia.

Ropcke at BILD:

« Ukraine will have to leave Russia ». The military analyst of the German newspaper Bild Julian Repke called for “not to be deceived” about the Kursk operation of the Armed Forces.

“Despite all the euphoria, I still do not understand the Ukrainian strategy. If you really have 5,000 fresh soldiers plus equipment, why not break through the Russian front in Kharkov, Lugansk, Donetsk or Zaporozhye? “He asks a question.

“Let’s not fool ourselves. Of course, Ukraine will have to retreat from Russia. Maybe not immediately, but precisely in the context of peace negotiations and under international pressure. In this regard, the strategy of conquering the Russian region remains extremely risky. And we hope that this is only a distraction before the liberation of the south and east of Ukraine, “said Röpke.

—

By the way, a tertiary reason for Zelensky’s desperate dash into Kursk could be to deliberately nix negotiations, which much of the West is increasingly pushing on him. Just like his coeval of Netanyahu, Zelensky is trapped in an escalation spiral for survival, forced to continue the war at all costs to stave off his own loss of power, which would be followed by him being thrown to the wolves.

He likely believes that by forcing Russia’s hand via continuous flaunting of red lines, he could spark a NATO-Russia confrontation that would ensure the continuation of the conflict, and his clan’s political—and likely corporeal—survival.

Legitimny:

All our sources are sure that the Ukrainian crisis is now possible in the last phase, where Zelensky decided to put everything and go to the all-in. This means that the office people know that « the power reserve » they have little and it is necessary to raise rates, ending the game possible this year on the best conditions for themselves.

If Zelensky’s plan fails, then Ukraine will not exist in its even current territorial borders.

We are watching…

—

I’ll leave you with this last thoughtful reflection on the Kursk situation and ongoing events:

I hope that the escapade in Kursk Oblast will be the swan song of Zelensky’s regime, and after the failure there, he will have no opportunity to repeat something similar. This story is the quintessence of the political style of the Ze-team: it is no coincidence that when it unfolded, there were no allegations of Western puppeteers, Western customers, or a Western trace. The West, represented by its various speakers, immediately said: this is Kyiv itself, its initiative. And this time, somehow, everyone immediately believed him automatically. Because the Style is unique and cannot be reproduced:

1. Media exhaust is the highest value, it replaces the military-strategic meaning, which does not exist at all. Hype, headlines, likes, comments, TikTok videos – all this is valuable in itself and important here and now, even if the general situation worsens from the actions taken, and at the next stage (inevitably) there will be defeat and shame;

2. The main target audience of such shows (at Bankova they think in such categories), as in Kursk Oblast, are the sponsors of the regime in the West. The task is to remind people about themselves, to spur sagging interest, political support and, most importantly, financing. To prove that there is still gunpowder in the powder flasks, and it is premature to dump the project. That is, before us is a PR event – like a presentation of a new album;

3. The task for Russia was publicly voiced by Yermak last spring: to bring war into the home of every Russian. This is the meaning of such loud and empty, like a drum, actions, like drones over the Kremlin. The irrational belief that destabilization will begin from hysteria on social networks in Russia, and the people will go to overthrow Putin. The question of what is the point of investing in this, if all the experience of recent years proves that Russian society reacts to external threats in the exact opposite way, and all signs of destabilization today in Ukraine, makes no sense. This is an argument of reason, and here is collective self-hypnosis. The phenomenon of group thinking;

4. The civilian population is not spared: neither their own nor others. This is the reason for the purges and repressions after the reoccupation of the Kharkov region, this is the reason for the, again, senseless from a military point of view, shelling of residential areas of Donetsk and Belgorod (see point 3), this is the reason for the current use of civilians as hostages and human shields;

5. They don’t spare their own Ukrainian soldiers either, which is why they are so understaffed now, and the whole village is fighting off the guys from the TCC. They were sent to the Kursk region simply to be slaughtered. For the sake of hype.

I repeat, this is not the USA, not Europe, not Soros and not the reptilians. Western systemic media are now writing with bewilderment that, given the critical situation at the front, Kyiv is taking steps that are making its situation even worse. But this is the political style of Zelensky and his “quarter”. Show business is a hypertrophied affectation with partial atrophy of intellect and morality. This is what we are seeing in the Kursk region. When show business comes to power, it turns into a bloody circus. This circus is now fighting for the extension of its power in the way it considers right.

“Nosovich’s Book”

August 13, 2024 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Ukraine, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Ukraine war briefing: Main fire at Russia-controlled nuclear plant in Ukraine extinguished

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/12/ukraine-war-briefing-main-fire-at-russia-controlled-nuclear-plant-in-ukraine-extinguished

Moscow and Kyiv have accused each other of starting blaze at Zaporizhzhia plant; Russia evacuates parts of Belogrod. What we know on day 901

The main fire at the Russia-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Ukraine has been extinguished, Russia’s Tass state news agency reported early on Monday, citing Russia’s state-owned nuclear energy company Rosatom. Ukraine’s nuclear power company Energoatom said in a statement on the Telegram messaging app that one of the cooling towers and other equipment was damaged. Tass also reported, citing Rosatom’s statement, that a cooling tower was damaged. Citing local Russian emergency ministry representatives, Tass said that it was a non-functioning tower.
Moscow and Kyiv accused each other of starting the fire. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy accused Russia of lighting the fire while Evgeny Balitsky, a Russian-installed official in the occupied south, accused Kyiv’s forces of causing it by shelling the nearby city of Enerhodar.
The UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) nuclear watchdog, which has a presence at the vast six-reactor facility, said its experts had seen strong, dark smoke coming from the northern area of the plant in southern Ukraine after multiple explosions. It said there had been no reported impact on nuclear safety at the site. “Team was told by [the nuclear plant] of an alleged drone attack today on one of the cooling towers located at the site,” it wrote on X.
Zelenskiy published grainy video showing belching black smoke that appeared to be coming out of a cooling tower with a blaze burning at its foot and said radiation indicators were “normal”. He added: “But as long as Russian terrorists retain control over the nuclear plant, the situation is not and cannot be normal.”
Russia said on Monday it had evacuated parts of Belgorod, another region next to Ukraine, after Kyiv sharply increased military activity near the border. Regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said that evacuations had begun from the Krasnaya Yaruga District due to “enemy activity on the border” that was a “threat”. “I am sure that our servicemen will do everything to cope with the threat that has arisen,” Gladkov said. “We are starting to move people who live in the Krasnaya Yaruga district to safer places.”
Ukrainian sources have indicated that thousands of troops have been committed to its incursion into Russia’s Kursk province. A Ukrainian security official told the news agency Agence France-Presse that the aim of the incursion was to destabilise Russia and string out Russian forces with light, fast-moving attacks. It remains unclear how sustainable the operation will be in the medium term amid Kremlin threats that it will be snuffed out using Russian reserves.
Russia’s defence ministry said on Monday it had thwarted attacks by Ukrainian “mobile groups” in three villages north and east of Korenevo – Tolpino, Zhuravli, Obshchiy Kolodez – all 15 to 18 miles from the border, the farthest points at which Moscow has acknowledged the incursion to have reached. A pro-Ukrainian Telegram channel released a video of soldiers raising a flag over a building in the Russian village of Guevo, a couple of miles inside the border and seven miles south of Sudzha, one of the first towns reached during the incursion.
Commenting on the incursion in his nightly address on Sunday, Zelenskiy said that Russia had launched nearly 2,000 cross-border strikes from its western Kursk region at Ukraine’s Sumy region over the summer, which deserved a “fair” response. “Artillery, mortars, drones. We also record missile strikes, and each such strike deserves a fair response,” he said.
A Russian drone and missile barrage on Kyiv overnight into Sunday killed a 35-year-old man and his four-year-old son. Russia attacked Ukraine with four ballistic missiles and 57 Shahed drones, Ukraine’s air force said. Air defences shot down 53 of the drones.
Zelenskiy said the missile that killed the pair was North Korean. “Our experts have precisely identified the type of missile, and we know the exact area of Russian territory from which it was launched,” he said in his nightly address on Sunday.
In Russia, Kursk’s regional governor said that a Ukrainian missile shot down by Russian air defenses fell on a residential building, wounding 15 people. The Russian Defense Ministry said that 35 drones were shot down overnight over the Kursk, Voronezh, Belgorod, Bryansk and Oryol regions.

August 13, 2024 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Russia, Ukraine, weapons and war | Leave a comment

A game plan for dealing with the costly Sentinel missile and future nuclear challenges

Bulletin, By Stephen J. Cimbala, Lawrence J. Korb | August 9, 2024

Enormous cost overruns in the Sentinel program have engendered a debate about how or if to go forward with a US intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) modernization program. We see five potential paths forward that might reduce costs and maintain or even improve the United States’ strategic posture. But to make the best military and financial choice, the United States government will have to consider how an updated missile force relates to evolving technology in the space and cyber realms and the implications of decisions about ICBM modernization for nuclear arms control.

Questions have been raised about the cost overruns for the Sentinel ICBM modernization program, which aims to replace the existing fleet of Minuteman III missiles beginning in the next decade. Sentinel is one part of a plan to replace all three legs of the U.S. nuclear strategic triad of land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) deployed on fleet ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs), and bomber-delivered weapons. Columbia class SSBNs and upgraded Trident II D-5 missiles are intended for the next generation of sea-based strategic forces, and the B-21 Raider advanced stealth bomber is already on track to replace both remaining B-52 and B-2 bombers in conventional and nuclear roles.

Plans for modernization of the entire nuclear triad were approved in the Obama, Trump, and Biden administrations, albeit with some differences in emphasis with respect to the role of nuclear weapons in US deterrence, defense, and foreign policy. The Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States also recommended modernization and replacement of all US strategic nuclear delivery systems.

The sticker shock associated with rising cost estimates for the Sentinel program is understandable. Estimated program acquisition costs for a “reasonably modified” Sentinel have risen to about $140.9 billion. According to the Congressional Budget Office, Department of Defense and Department of Energy, budgetary requests for fiscal year 2023 related to nuclear forces total more than $576 billion for the period 2023-2032, averaging just above $75 billion per year. The history of nuclear modernization does not suggest that complete cancellation of Sentinel is the most probable outcome. The program has the support of the Air Force, members of Congress, and various defense contractors. Given the inertia of the Sentinel program, we believe questions about its cost should focus not on eliminating it, but on the implications of strategic land-based missile modernization for US national strategy, nuclear deterrence, and arms control. Going forward, what are the options for the ICBM leg of the nuclear triad from this perspective?^[1]

Alternatives for US ICBM modernization.^[2] The first option for dealing with Sentinel’s cost overruns would involve canceling the entire Sentinel program and continuing to modernize and upgrade the existing Minuteman ICBM force………………………………………………………

A second option would be to move to a nuclear strategic dyad instead of a triad and depend on a deterrent of submarine-based weapons and strategic bombers……………………………………………………………

In a third option, future ICBMs would be deployed on mobile platforms instead of in silos………………………………………………………….

Yet another option would be to deploy ICBMs in so-called deep underground basing…………………………………………….

A fifth option for the ICBM force would be “conventionalization” of strategic land-based missile launchers…………………………………………….

Domain challenges to strategic stability: space and cyber. Options for a future ICBM force will have to be considered within the larger context of evolving technology related to deterrence. The domains of space and cyber now form part of the context for military planners.^[3] ………………………………………………….

Hypersonic weapons cast another shadow of concern over deterrence and crisis stability.^[4] ………………………………………

Finally, there is the issue of strategic nuclear arms control and its potential demise under the pressures of US–Russian political disagreement, of China’s apparent ambition to become a nuclear superpower, of growing political and military alignments between Beijing and Moscow, and of the wobbly status of the last major Russian–American strategic nuclear arms control agreement (New START), originally signed in 2010 and now extended only until February 2026.^[5] ………………………………………………………………………………………more https://thebulletin.org/2024/08/a-game-plan-for-dealing-with-the-costly-sentinel-missile-and-future-nuclear-challenges/?utm_source=Newsletter+&utm_medium=Email+&utm_campaign=MondayNewsletter08122024&utm_content=NuclearRisk_CostlySentinelMissileAndFutureNuclearChallenges_080920247

August 13, 2024 Posted by Christina Macpherson | USA, weapons and war | Leave a comment

‘Heinous’: Children Among 100 Killed by Israel Bombing of Gaza School Just Hours After US Weapons Approval

“It is hard to comprehend how the Biden administration can justify rewarding Israel with new weapons, despite Israel’s persistent defiance of every single plea the Biden administration has made urging a modicum of restraint.”

Yanis Varoufakis, former finance minister of Greece and co-founder of Progressive International, asked the same on Saturday.

“Israel has now killed nearly 40,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, and wounded well over 92,000 others,” said Varoufakis. “Thousands more lie, uncounted, under the debris. Some 10,000 Palestinians have been abducted by Israel’s occupying forces. Question: Where is the ICC indictment?”

Jon Queally, Aug 10, 2024 https://www.commondreams.org/news/gaza-massacre-us-weapons

The Palestinian Authority’s Fatah government in the Occupied West Bank released a statement Saturday describing the attack on the al-Tabin school in Gaza City as a “heinous bloody massacre” that represents the “peak of terrorism and criminality” by the Israeli government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Just hours after the Biden administration Friday announced approval of $3.5 billion in military funds for Israel and shipments for new weaponry, an Israeli bombing of a school-turned-shelter in Gaza has killed 100 people or more, including scores of civilian men, women, and children in what was described as a “bloody massacre” that struck during morning prayers, leaving body parts scattered “in pieces” and healthcare workers overwhelmed with the dead and wounded.

“Committing these massacres confirms beyond a shadow of a doubt its efforts to exterminate our people through the policy of cumulative killing and mass massacres that make living consciences tremble,” said the PA.

Footage taken by volunteers working alongside Palestinian medical units in Gaza City showed wounded small children and adults being taken to local hospitals as well as scenes of carnage from the scene of the bombing [Warning: Images are graphic]. Gaza journalist Motasem A. Dalloul also posted his reporting from the scene, including footage of the carnage [Also graphic].

Al-Jazeera spoke with witnesses at the scene of the massacre, one of whom said many of the dead—which included women, children, and old people who had been praying and others sleeping when the missiles struck—were collected afterward “in pieces”:

Tamer Kirolos, a regional director for Save the Children, called Israel’s attack on al-Tabin the “deadliest attack on a school since last October.”

“It is devastating to see the toll this has taken, including so many children and people at the school for dawn prayers,” Kirolos said. “Civilians, children, must be protected. An immediate definitive ceasefire is the only foreseeable way that will happen.”

Just hours before the bombing, the U.S. State Department announcement that a $3.5 billion tranche of funds—part of a larger $14.1 billion in overseas military aid approved by Congress earlier this year—would be released to the Israeli government for weapons procurement.

As CNNreported, while some of those weapons purchases made possible by the fund may take years, the “supplemental funding also allocated billions of dollars’ worth of equipment that the Pentagon can draw from its own stockpiles to send directly to Israel on a much faster timeline.”

Unverified reporting indicated that at least one of the missiles dropped on the al-Tabin school overnight may have been a U.S.-made MK-84 bomb weighing 2,000 pounds.

On Friday night, after the State Department announcement but before news of the latest bombing in Gaza broke, Sarah Leah Whitson, executive director of the human rights and advocacy group Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN), was among those confounded by the U.S. government’s continued determination to arm the Israelis in the face of the human suffering in Gaza and the repeated massacre of civilians, day after day and month after month.

“It is mind-boggling that despite the overwhelming evidence of the IDF’s unprecedented crimes in Gaza that has shocked the conscience of the entire world, the Biden administration is greenlighting the transfer of additional lethal weapons to Israel,” said Whitson in a Friday night statement following news that the State Dept. had greenlit the release of taxpayer funds for a new round of weapons destined for Israel.

Making a similar argument in a Saturday morning post on X, Sami Abou Shehadeh, leader of Israel’s leftist Balad Party, said that while President Joe Biden “could have stopped the genocide” by using his leverage of military aid to force the Israelis in a different direction, instead “he just released $3.5 billion for more weapons to kill civilians.”

Shehadeh warned that without any internal opposition “to the genocide” by Israel’s Zionist political parties, Netanyahu’s policies would continue, even as the region inches toward further destabilization over the crisis in Gaza that has also spread to Lebanon and beyond. Calling for the International Criminal Court to intervene, he asked, “If the ICC doesn’t take action now, then when?”

Yanis Varoufakis, former finance minister of Greece and co-founder of Progressive International, asked the same on Saturday.

It is truly horrific,” Raed Jarrar, DAWN’s policy director told Common Dreams via email Saturday. “Last night’s massacre was another example of how Blinken and Biden have blood on their hands.”

Referencing a separate decision by the State Department to suspend an investigation into documented abuse violations by the “notorious” Netzah Yehuda Unit within the IDF, Jarrar said the “decisions of sending weapons to Israel and not sanctioning Israeli human rights abusers are not just corrupt policy decisions, they are criminal acts.”

August 12, 2024 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Atrocities, Israel, USA, weapons and war | Leave a comment

US to send more military aid to Ukraine, as Ukrainian drones target Kursk and the Kursk Nuclear Power PLant

On Friday, Ukrainian drones targeted the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant in Kurchatov, briefly cutting power supplies to the town.

https://www.rt.com/news/602400-pentagon-ukraine-military-aid/ 10 Aug 24

Ammunition worth $125 million comes after Ukraine invaded Russia’s Kursk Region

Washington will send Kiev another $125 million worth of missiles and ammunition, the Pentagon announced as fierce fighting continued in Russia’s Kursk Region.

The US Department of Defense noted on Friday that this was the 63rd batch of aid provided to Ukraine since August 2021 – six months prior to the launch of Russia’s military operation.

To help Kiev meet “critical security and defense needs,” the US will send Stinger anti-aircraft missiles; ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS); rounds for 155mm and 105mm artillery; Javelin, AT-4 and TOW anti-tank missiles; small-arms ammunition; and demolitions ordnance, the Pentagon said in a statement.

The package also included multi-mission radars, Humvee ambulances, spare parts, services, training and transportation.

Washington’s previous batch of military aid, worth $1.7 billion, was sent at the end of July. According to the Pentagon’s own numbers, the US has sent more than $56.2 billion in military aid to Ukraine since President Joe Biden took office in January 2021.

Earlier this week, Ukraine sent several battalions worth of troops into Russia’s Kursk Region. Moscow has accused the invaders of indiscriminately targeting civilians with artillery, small arms and drone strikes. On Friday, Ukrainian drones targeted the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant in Kurchatov, briefly cutting power supplies to the town.

“We don’t feel like this is escalatory in any way,” Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh told reporters on Thursday, when asked about US military aid to Kiev.

According to Singh, everything Ukraine does is legitimate self-defense from the Russian “invasion,” while Russia can always de-escalate by withdrawing.

The Ukrainian leadership has said the primary goal of the Kursk operation was to induce “fear” in the hearts of the Russian people. One of the units involved in the operation, according to Ukrainian media, is named ‘Nachtigall’ after the notorious Nazi auxiliary from WWII commanded by Roman Shukhevych.

At least five civilians have been killed and 21 wounded – including six children – by the Ukrainian attacks, according to Russian authorities. The defense ministry in Moscow said that the invaders have lost almost 1,000 troops and over 100 armored vehicles as of Friday.

August 12, 2024 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Ukraine, USA, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Nothing’s changed since 1948 – except now Israel’s excuses don’t work

8 August 2024 https://www.jonathan-cook.net/blog/2024-08-08/1948-israel-excuses/

We have been lied to for decades about the creation of Israel. It was born in sin, and it continues to live in sin

A headline about community displacements is about yet another Israeli operation to ethnically cleanse the Palestinians in the tiny, besieged and utterly destroyed enclave of Gaza, was published in yesterday’s Middle East Eye.

When I began studying Israeli history more than a quarter of a century ago, people claiming to be experts proffered plenty of excuses to explain why Israelis should not be held responsible for the 1948 ethnic cleansing of some 750,000 Palestinians from their homes – what Palestinians call their Nakba, or Catastrophe.

1. I was told most Israelis were not involved and knew nothing of the war crimes carried out against the Palestinians during Israel’s establishment.

2. I was told that those Israelis who did take part in war crimes, like Operation Broom to expel Palestinians from their homeland, did so only because they were traumatised by their experiences in Europe. In the immediate aftermath of the Holocaust, these Israelis assumed that, were the Jewish people to survive, they had no alternative but to drive out the Palestinians en masse.

3. From others, I was told that no ethnic cleansing had taken place. The Palestinians had simply fled at the first sign of conflict because they had no real historical attachment to the land.

4. Or I was told that the Palestinians’ displacement was an unfortunate consequence of a violent war in which Israeli leaders had the best interests of Palestinians at heart. The Palestinians hadn’t left because of Israeli violence but because they has been ordered to do so by Arab leaders in the region. In fact, the story went, Israel had pleaded with many of the 750,000 refugees to come home afterwards, but those same Arab leaders stubbornly blocked their return.

Every one of these claims was nonsense, directly contradicted by all the documentary evidence.

That should be even clearer today, as Israel continues the ethnic cleansing and slaughter of the Palestinian people more than 75 years on.

1. Every Israeli knows exactly what is going on in Gaza – after all, their children-soldiers keep posting videos online showing the latest crimes they have committed, from blowing up mosques and hospitals to shooting randomly into homes. Polls show all but a small minority of Israelis approve of the savagery that has killed many tens of thousands of Palestinians, including children. A third of them think Israel needs to go further in its barbarity.

Today, Israeli TV shows host debates about how much pain soldiers should be allowed to inflict by raping their Palestinian captives. Don’t believe me? Watch this from Israel’s Channel 12: [on original]

2. If the existential fears of Israelis and Jews still require the murder, rape and ethnic cleansing of Palestinians three-quarters of a century on from the Holocaust, then we need to treat that trauma as the problem – and refuse to indulge it any longer.

3. The people of Gaza are fleeing their homes – or at least the small number who still have homes not bombed to ruins – not because they lack an attachment to Palestine. They are fleeing from one part of the cage Israel has created for them to another part of it for one reason alone: because all of them – men, women and children – are terrified of being slaughtered by an Israeli military, at best, indifferent to their suffering and their fate.

4. No serious case can be made today that Israel is carrying out any of its crimes in Gaza – from bombing civilians to starving them – with regret, or that its leaders seek the best for the Palestinian population. Israel is on trial for genocide at the world’s highest court precisely because the judges there suspect it has the very worst intentions possible towards the Palestinian people.

We have been lied to for decades about the creation of Israel. It was always a settler colonial project. And like other settler colonial projects – from the US and Australia to South Africa and Algeria – it always viewed the native people as inferior, as non-human, as animals, and was bent on their elimination.

What is so obviously true today was true then too, at Israel’s birth. Israel was born in sin, and it continues to live in sin.

We in the West abetted its crimes in 1948, and we’re still abetting them today. Nothing has changed, except the excuses no longer work.

August 12, 2024 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Atrocities, Gaza, Israel | Leave a comment

We Must Oppose Israel’s Dangerous Gamble Before It’s Too Late

Failure to stop Israel’s genocide of Palestinians gambles with the fate of humanity as a whole.

CODEPINK Alert, By: Kathy Kelly, Aug 09, 2024, https://codepink.substack.com/p/we-must-oppose-israels-dangerous?r=cqey&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email&triedRedirect=true

Rather than bring suspects before international courts, Israel has resorted to assassinations of the very negotiators with which it purports to be seeking peace, and in a manner clearly intended to expand the conflict into a global war involving multiple nuclear-armed nations.

August 11, 2024 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Gaza, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Modernizing Nuclear War

SCHEERPOST, 9 August 24

Seventy-nine years ago, the Truman administration dropped atom bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, instantly killing approximately 100,000 innocent civilians. Host Robert Scheer calls these horrific incidents among the major instances of terror ever committed in human history.

Bill Hartung of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft joins Scheer Intelligence to discuss the history and legacy of nuclear weapons in relation to the military industrial complex, as a $2 trillion effort from the Pentagon to build “a new generation of nuclear-armed missiles, bombers, and submarines” takes place.

The central question underlying the conversation is asked by Scheer; “How could they, in good conscience, be talking about modernizing the devil’s weapon?”

Hartung claims that the Pentagon and arms manufacturers are doing so under the guise of deterrence, but also because of false stories of controllable nuclear war and even the “evil” consideration that it may be necessary to use nuclear weapons on certain populations.

“I think some of the folks promoting this stuff would like to believe that they’re not putting the future of humanity at risk. So they kind of tell themselves these stories, which they then tell to the public and hope they can persuade them.”

In the past, the horror of nuclear war was widely acknowledged to some extent by the public and the political class alike, as even Reagan said a nuclear war could never be won and should never be fought. Hartung claims that the belief that nuclear war could be winnable was previously “pushed off the agenda,” but it “seems to be back.”

Despite movies like Oppenheimer, which to some extent injected the issue of nuclear war into public discussion, citizens and the media remain largely uninterested and unaware of the dangers of nuclear war, especially with regard to the war in Ukraine.

This is reflected in the opinions of the American political class. Hartung points out that “if you go to Washington, there’s this sort of atmosphere that, if you’re for reducing these things, you know, you’re the one who’s unrealistic. The logic is flipped on its head …”

Transcript………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. more https://scheerpost.com/2024/08/09/modernizing-nuclear-war/

August 11, 2024 Posted by Christina Macpherson | weapons and war | Leave a comment

Remembering Hiroshima and Nagasaki – Nuke weapons for Japan?

August 7, 2024, https://beyondnuclear.org/remembering-hiroshima-and-nagasaki/

During the Hiroshima and Nagasaki commemoration events this week, Japan’s prime minister Fumio Kishida reiterated that despite the widening nuclear threats in the world, “we must continue moving forward” on the path to nuclear disarmament. The remarks come amidst on-going concerns that Japan could quickly develop nuclear weapons given its plutonium stockpile accumulated from its civil nuclear power program and commonly described as Japan’s “bomb in the basement”.

Last year, former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger said that Japan was “heading towards becoming a nuclear power in five years”. Kishida insisted in his remarks this week that Japan will work “towards the realization of a world without nuclear weapons.” Nevertheless, Japan has not signed the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.

Meanwhile, far from disarming, the world’s nuclear powers appear to be ramping up their arsenals. “As we mourn the loss of all those killed at Hiroshima and Nagasaki by US atomic bombs, in August 1945, we cannot avoid the fact that we are closer than ever to nuclear war,” writes CND general secretary, Kate Hudson, on Beyond Nuclear International this week. ” This is a bad time for humanity — and for all forms of life on Earth. It’s time for us to stand up and say No: we refuse to be taken into nuclear Armageddon.”

Each year in the greater Washington, DC area, a commemoration is held by the Hiroshima/Nagasaki Peace Committee of the National Capitol Region. In addition to a vigil downtown, an online event was also held this year, featuring speakers Gwen DuBois of Chesapeake Physicians for Social Responsibility; Linda Pentz Gunter of Beyond Nuclear; and Fan Yang of Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom and hosted by John Steinbach. A highlight of the event — available to watch on YouTube — were remarks made by Hiroshima survivor, Hideko Tamara. Contributions were also made by Melvin Hardy, Dennis Nelson, Ellen Thomas and James Wagner. Hardy described how children from All Souls Church Unitarian sent art supplies to Hiroshima children who then sent some of their pictures back to All Souls. (One is pictured in the headline image.) Many decades later, a trip was made to Hiroshima with the drawings and paintings for a meeting with some of the original artists. A film, Pictures from a Hiroshima Schoolyard, tells this moving story.

In Toronto, Canada, an exhibition was held of 100 photos commemorating the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, including five taken by the only Japanese photographer present on the day in Hiroshima. All of the photos can be viewed on line. Read the article about the exhibition on Beyond Nuclear International.

August 11, 2024 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Japan, weapons and war | Leave a comment

The Nagasaki Peace Declaration 9 August 2024

we call for the Japanese government to sign and ratify the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons as soon as possible.

Everyone in the world, we are “global citizens” who live in the
huge community of Earth.

we call for the Japanese government to sign and ratify the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons as soon as possible.

Shiro Suzuki,
Mayor of Nagasaki / First Vice President of Mayors for Peace 9 August 24

People making atomic bombs!
Rest from your work for a while and close your eyes.
It was on August 9, 1945!
An atomic bomb that you had made
Brought houses and assets to naught in a flash,
Completely devastating loving families.
Survivors had to
Recover from scratch
To follow a tough, long road to bloody lives
With deep concern that an “atomic bomb disease” would end
their lives any day and
Infinite grievance over the loss of their families and relatives
Haunting them forever.

This is a quote from a poem by Ms. Fukuda Sumako, a poet from
Nagasaki who was exposed to the atomic bombing at 23 and
devoted the rest of her life to making people aware of the misery
brought by the atomic bomb while combatting atomic bomb
disease.

Since that day, hibakusha, or atomic bomb survivors, have lived
with deep sorrow over the loss of their family members and
friends, scars left on their body, the serious effect of radiation
spoiling cells and causing various symptoms even after many
years, and the hardships of discrimination and life due to being
hibakusha.
Their immense pain and suffering caused by the atomic bombing
were not just of an immediate kind. Instead, hibakusha have
experienced them throughout their lifetime.
Nevertheless, hibakusha have continued to share their
experience of surviving severe hardships with strong
determination to ensure that no one in the world will again have
the same experience as theirs.

To achieve this, please visit the atomic-bombed cities and listen
carefully and conscientiously, as an individual, to hibakusha
sharing their pain and thoughts.
We also call for your dialogue and diplomatic efforts to explore a
path toward peaceful solutions, no matter how difficult the path is,
instead of choosing a path toward arms expansion or threats of
force.
The government of Japan, the only state attacked by atomic
bombs in war, must express a serious attitude of pursuing a world
without nuclear weapons.

As a step toward this, we call for the Japanese government to
sign and ratify the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons
as soon as possible.

We also call for the Japanese government to firmly uphold the
principle of peace embodied in the Constitution of Japan and to
demonstrate its leadership in international efforts to ease the
heightened tension in Northeast Asia and advance disarmament
in the region, such as the Northeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free
Zone initiative.

Moreover, we strongly request that further enhanced aid be given
to hibakusha, whose average age exceeds 85, and that relief
measures be adopted as soon as possible for those who were
exposed to the atomic bombings but have not yet been officially
recognized as hibakusha.
Everyone in the world, we are “global citizens” who live in the
huge community of Earth.
Imagine what would happen if a conflict like those found in the
current world escalated to bring about a nuclear war. It would
have a devastating impact not only on the lives of people but also
on the global environment, imposing a grave threat to the
existence of humankind.

That is why the abolition of nuclear weapons is an absolute
requirement for the survival of humankind, which can be viewed
as a prerequisite for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
striven for by the international community.
Nagasaki has recently seen increasing vigour of long-term efforts
to achieve a world without nuclear weapons, mainly among
younger generations. In May of this year, a peace-focused forum
supported by One Young World, a global community for young
leaders that is dubbed as the “junior Davos,” was held in
Nagasaki for the first time.

Circles of younger generations around the world working together
as leaders have expanded to various regions. They are the light
of our hope of building a sustainable and peaceful future.
People making peace!
Even if each of you has only a little power, you are never
powerless.
If we as global citizens speak up and work together, we will surely
overcome the current difficult situation. If we share our wisdom
with each other and partner with each other irrespective of any
difference in nationality, religion, race, gender, or generation, we
will surely fulfil our future vision.

Nagasaki firmly believes so.

I would like to express my deepest condolences for the lives
claimed by the atomic bombings.
Nagasaki will disseminate throughout the world a culture of
peace, that is, a culture of respecting others, fostering mutual
trust, and striving for solutions through dialogue in collaboration
with global citizens who hope to contribute to peace making.
I hereby declare that Nagasaki will continue its tireless efforts to
abolish nuclear weapons and realize permanent world peace so
that Nagasaki remains the last place to suffer an atomic bombing.

August 10, 2024 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Japan, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Iran Is Better Positioned to Launch Nuclear-Weapons Program

New U.S. Intelligence Assessment Says. U.S. officials say Iran isn’t currently
seeking to build a nuclear device but is engaged in activities that could
help it do so. Iran is pursuing research that has put it in a better
position to launch a nuclear-weapons program, according to a new assessment
by U.S. intelligence agencies. The shift in Washington’s view of Iran’s
nuclear efforts comes at a critical time, with Iran having produced enough
highly enriched nuclear fuel for a few nuclear weapons.

Wall St Journal 9th Aug 2024

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-is-better-positioned-to-launch-nuclear-weapons-program-new-u-s-intelligence-assessment-says-e39b6c78

August 10, 2024 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, weapons and war | Leave a comment

IAEA chief calls for restraint as fighting remains ongoing ‘in the vicinity’ of Russia’s Kursk Nuclear Power Plant

by Dmytro Basmat, Kyiv Independent 10th Aug 2024

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi called on both Kyiv and Moscow to “exercise maximum restraint” in order to avoid a nuclear accident as fighting is reportedly ongoing in the region around the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (KNPP).

In a statement issued by the IAEA on Aug. 9, Grossi said that a nuclear accident at the KNPP would have “the potential for serious radiological consequences.”

Grossi noted that two of the six nuclear reactors at the KNPP are in shutdown, while another two are fully operational. The remaining two reactors are under construction.

The statement comes as Ukraine’s continues its surprise incursion across the border into Kursk Oblast, with Ukraine reportedly making gains deeper into Russian territory.

Earlier in the day on Aug. 9, a fire caused by an alleged drone attack on a power substation led to power outages in several areas of Kurchatov which houses the KNPP, regional Governor Alexei Smirnov claimed.

On Aug. 8, Kurchatov’s mayor, Igor Korpunkov, claimed that battles are ongoing “a few dozen kilometers” from the town.

Independent Russian news outlet IStories reported on Aug. 9 that Russia is currently preparing to defend the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant as Ukrainian troops are approaching it.

The entrances to the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant were blocked as of the afternoon of Aug. 9, the pro-government regional newspaper network Bloknot claimed, citing its undisclosed sources.

Everything at the nuclear power plant’s units under construction has been de-energized, and construction workers have left the site, Bloknot claimed………………………………………..

Russia’s Emergency Situations Ministry also said on Aug. 9 that the situation in Kursk Oblast had been declared a “federal emergency,” and began sending additional military equipment into the region. https://kyivindependent.com/iaea-chief-calls-for-restraint-to-ensure-nuclear-safety-at-kursk-nuclear-power-plant/

August 10, 2024 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Russia, safety, Ukraine, weapons and war | Leave a comment

The Space Force can require private companies to cut off service to their other customers.

Space Force Seeks Industry Input On Draft Civil Reserve Framework

The U.S. Space Force is calling on the commercial space industry to weigh in on its draft plan for a Commercial Augmentation Space Reserve.
Released through a request for information, the Space Force’s draft plan includes several questions about whether the proposed incentives are enough to encourage participation from commercial companies.

The framework proposes two levels of industry involvement. The first level supports regular and surge operations through pre-negotiated agreements. The second level, known as “full CASR execution,” kicks in when the Secretary of Defense orders top-priority support from commercial participants.

At this point, the Space Force can require companies to cut off service to their other customers, if necessary, to focus on military needs, resulting in concern about the potential loss of income if companies are required to deny service to other customers during a crisis.

The U.S. Space Force <https://www.spaceforce.mil/> is reportedly https://breakingdefense.com/2024/08/space-force-asks-industry-to-critique-draft-civil-reserve-framework-including-incentives/> calling on the commercial space industry to weigh in on its draft plan for a Commercial Augmentation Space Reserve (CASR). This initiative aims to create a commercial space reserve fleet that supports national security during both peacetime and conflict. Released through a request for information (RFI), the Space Force’s draft plan includes several questions about whether the proposed incentives are enough to encourage participation from commercial companies.

The CASR framework, developed by the Space Systems Command’s Commercial Space Office, led by Col. Rich Kniseley, builds on the concept of the Air Force’s Civil Reserve Air Fleet but adapts it to the unique challenges of space operations. Unlike the Air Force’s model, which involves aircraft, the CASR must account for the diverse capabilities provided by different space systems. This requires a more tailored approach to each mission area.
The framework proposes two levels of industry involvement. The first level supports regular and surge operations through pre-negotiated agreements. The second level, known as “full CASR execution,” kicks in when the Secretary of Defense orders top-priority support from commercial participants.

At this point, the Space Force can require companies to cut off service to their other customers, if necessary, to focus on military needs. A key concern for commercial companies is the potential loss of income if they are required to deny service to other customers during a crisis.

To address this, the RFI asks for feedback on nine proposed incentives, such as early R&D funding, preferred contract status with the Space Force, and financial protections against potential losses if satellites are damaged during operations.

The Space Force plans to begin initial CASR pilot contracts soon, with the goal of achieving initial operational capability by fiscal year 2026. The RFI represents an important step in engaging industry stakeholders to ensure that the final CASR framework is both effective and fair, balancing national security needs with commercial interests.

August 10, 2024 Posted by Christina Macpherson | weapons and war | Leave a comment

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