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Will upcoming NATO summit launch forever war in Europe?

Zelensky said two weeks ago that Ukraine would not even attend the Vilnius Summit unless given a firm signal on its eventual membership.

Pressure is mounting to make some sort of formal declaration over Ukraine’s membership at meetings in Vilnius next month.

JUNE 16, 2023, David Sacks,   https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2023/06/16/will-upcoming-nato-summit-launch-forever-war-in-europe/

An article in the New York Times on Wednesday claimed that pressure is building on Biden to announce a timetable for Ukrainian membership in NATO at its Vilnius Summit next month. 

Supposedly Biden is “isolated” among NATO allies in his reluctance to do so, even though that claim is contradicted by the story’s own last paragraph (the one that Noam Chomsky once quipped should be read first), which acknowledges that “others argue more quietly” that NATO membership “could give Mr. Putin more incentive to continue the war, or to escalate it.”

Indeed, since Moscow has already declared NATO membership for Ukraine to be completely unacceptable and an existential threat — the prevention of which is one of its chief war aims — a Vilnius Declaration that Ukraine will join NATO when the war ends will effectively ensure that the war goes on forever. It will also take off the table the West’s central bargaining chip to achieve peace, which is a neutral Ukraine. 

It’s clear that the “pressure” on Biden is coming from Zelensky and some of the eastern NATO countries, specifically Poland and the Baltic States. Zelensky said two weeks ago that Ukraine would not even attend the Vilnius Summit unless given a firm signal on its eventual membership. Former NATO secretary general Anders Rasmussen, now a consultant to Zelensky, even threatened that “if NATO cannot agree on a clear path forward for Ukraine, there is a clear possibility that some countries individually might take action.” In particular, “the Poles would seriously consider going in,” triggering direct war between NATO and Russia. 

The NYT article implies that the current secretary general Jens Stoltenberg agrees with the hardliners on the need for a concrete timetable for Ukraine’s admission into NATO, but he made no such promises during his joint address with President Biden on Tuesday. By Wednesday, Stoltenberg and NATO were making it clear that no specific timeline for Ukraine’s NATO membership would be on the agenda in Vilnius. He reiterated comments from April that “Ukraine’s future is in NATO,” and said there would be agreement from member states on a “multi-year program” to help Ukraine “become fully interoperable with NATO,” but wouldn’t commit to anything more specific than that. 

Apparently, it’s Zelensky and his allies along the Russian border who are “isolated,” not President Biden.

Whatever Stoltenberg’s personal views may be, he knows NATO is divided on the question of admitting Ukraine in the near future. Even the NYT name-checks three countries – Germany, Hungary, and Turkey – whose leaders would definitely oppose membership at a specific future date. Many more leaders have privately expressed concern, and Biden, to his credit, appears to be one of them.

While his overall conduct and rhetoric has been hawkish (and I continue to maintain he could have avoided this war altogether with better diplomacy in the months leading up to it), Biden has been admirably consistent in his desire not to plunge America into direct war with Russia.

The threats from Rasmussen underscore how easily a proxy war can turn into a real one in an alliance where all members are pledged to come to the military defense of any one member. The American people may begin to question the wisdom of making new Article 5 guarantees if foreigners like Rassmussen can use existing ones to blackmail the United States into reckless action.

Polish or Ukrainian tails should not wag American dogs into World War III. 

Short of giving Ukraine the security guarantees that NATO membership provides, some in Biden’s foreign policy circle, such as Secretary of State Antony Blinken, have been pushing a different idea, which is to give “Israel status” to Ukraine. This consists of long-term security guarantees (which run for ten-year intervals in Israel’s case) including weapons, ammunition, and money “not subject to the fate of the current counteroffensive or the electoral calendar.” In other words, America won’t reassess support even if the counteroffensive fails. Indeed, support won’t cease even if those pesky voters change their minds. Biden’s War for Democracy is too important to be subject to elections. 

However, some observers may see here a classic bait and switch. Last year, after Ukraine retook land around Kharkiv and Kherson, the American people were assured that the Ukrainians would complete the job in the spring and summer of 2023. This new Ukrainian counteroffensive would roll back Russian territorial gains, perhaps even threaten the Russian hold on Crimea, and thereby drive Moscow to the negotiating table and end the war. Many Americans supported the $100+ billion in appropriations for Ukraine on this basis. The implicit promise was that this was a one-time expense, not the baseline for an annual appropriation in a new Forever War. 

Now a difficult start to the counteroffensive coupled with a proposed multi-year deal at Vilnius makes clear that this was a lie or a pipe dream. But isn’t this what always happens? Administrations ease us into war with promises of quick and easy victory, and then once involved, tell us we can’t back out no matter the cost because American credibility is at stake. It’s Vietnam, Afghanistan or Iraq all over again, except this time with a nuclear-armed adversary creating the heightened risk that the war could escalate into WWIII at any point.

Perhaps the most pointless aspect of the current debate among NATO members is that with or without a timetable, a Vilnius Declaration that Ukraine will join NATO is a promise that cannot be implemented, absent a major reversal in Ukrainian fortunes on the battlefield. Such a declaration cannot guarantee Ukraine’s NATO admission any more than its forerunner at the Bucharest Summit in 2008 did. It can only guarantee that the Russians remain implacably resolved to stopping it by perpetuating the war as long as they have to.

So our insistence that Ukraine be allowed to join NATO “someday,” combined with our (sensible) desire not to be drawn into World War III, means that “someday” will never arrive. This begs the question: why continue to make a promise when there is no realistic path to achieving it? Why fight over a principle (NATO’s “open door”) that’s largely theoretical anyway because Ukraine can’t actually join the alliance without triggering the continent-wide conflagration NATO was established to avoid in the first place? 

The leaders meeting at Vilnius may not be asking that question, but future historians judging them surely will. 

June 21, 2023 Posted by | EUROPE, politics international | 2 Comments

Saudi Arabia demands own nuclear program in exchange for ties with Israel

According to NYT, Riyadh may sideline long-held demand to establish Palestinian state for normalization with Israel; Netanyahu could face strong opposition from defense establishment, fearing move would initiate a nuclear arms race across Middle East

In discreet U.S.-mediated talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel, Riyadh has conditioned normalizing ties with Jerusalem on the establishment of a civilian nuclear program, as well as a robust defense pact with Washington and removing restrictions on American arms sales, the New York Times reported on Saturday.

The demand reportedly came during U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to the Gulf kingdom earlier this month where he held a lengthy meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Muhammed bin Salman.

Blinken then held a 40-minute phone call with Netanyahu, briefing him about the details of bin Salman’s demands.

The Times cited two American officials who described the phone call as “a turn in the Biden administration’s long-shot bid to broker a landmark diplomatic deal” between Jerusalem and Riyadh

For such a deal to fructify, each side would have to have to reverse course on at least one long-held position: Israel would have to allow the Saudi kingdom to enrich uranium; Saudi Arabia will have to abandon its policy to avoid normalization with Israel as long as the Palestinians are not allowed to establish their own state; and Biden would have to explain his volte-face on bin Salman, whom he promised to make a “pariah” during his 2020 presidential election campaign for his alleged involvement in the murder of Saudi-American journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

According to the report, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could face strong opposition from the national security establishment to consenting to a Saudi nuclear enrichment program, fearing such a move would initiate a nuclear arms race across the Middle East.

June 21, 2023 Posted by | politics international, Saudi Arabia | Leave a comment

Central Europe’s nuclear plans – fraught with problems

CENTRAL EUROPE’S NUCLEAR PLANS: HOT STUFF

Claudia Ciobanu, Edit Inotai, Tim Gosling and Nicholas Watson, Budapest, Prague, Warsaw, BIRN. June 20, 2023  https://balkaninsight.com/2023/06/20/central-europes-nuclear-plans-hot-stuff/

Since the war in Ukraine, CEE countries have stepped up efforts to build more nuclear power plants and reduce nuclear supply chain dependency on Russia’s Rosatom. Yet the disposal of waste remains an issue and could impact financing of new reactors.

Central Europe has put nuclear power at the forefront of efforts to quit Russian oil and gas and decarbonise economies, yet breaking the region’s dependency on Russia’s giant nuclear holding company Rosatom – for fuel, financing and waste disposal – promises to complicate those efforts.

The region’s reliance on Rosatom is historic. Until last year, all 14 reactors operating in Czechia, Hungary and Slovakia were built by Russia (Slovakia’s third reactor at Mochovce, of Soviet design but not built by Rosatom, started up this year). Furthermore, Rosatom is building two more reactors in Hungary.

That latter project, thrown into some disarray by the war in Ukraine, epitomises this longstanding dependency. Rosatom dominates the global nuclear industry because of its ability to act as a “one-stop nuclear shop”, which is attractive to countries because it can finance the plant; build the plant; provide training, support and maintenance for the plant; dispose of the nuclear waste produced at the plant; and finally decommission the plant.

While Europe is taking steps to reduce its 30 per cent reliance on Russian nuclear fuel – Czech energy company CEZ has signed contracts with US-based Westinghouse Electric Company and French company Framatome – waste disposal will be a much harder nut to crack.

Nuclear energy produces mainly low-level radioactive waste, while high-level radioactive waste, which includes the hot spent fuel, accounts for about 1 per cent of total nuclear waste. Most of this spent fuel – over 60,000 tonnes stored across Europe – is kept in cooling pools located within or near the plants that generated it.

Last year’s EU taxonomy of what it considers green energy makes having existing disposal facilities for low-level waste and a detailed plan to have in operation by 2050 a disposal facility for high-level radioactive waste strict requirements for any new nuclear energy projects to qualify as sustainable investments – a definition needed to keep down the huge financing costs of new reactors. In addition, the technical screening criteria for nuclear energy prohibit the export of radioactive waste for disposal in third countries.

While there are many existing disposal facilities for low-level waste dotted around Europe, Finland is the only country currently constructing a permanent disposal facility for used fuel, the deep geological repository (DGR) under construction at Olkiluoto, which is scheduled to be operational around 2025.

From Rosatom with love

Hungary is pretty much stuck with Rosatom, most experts in Hungary believe. They tend to praise the technology and cooperation provided by Russia, though most are aware that political realities have significantly changed since the war in Ukraine. Yet restructuring the current Paks 1 power plant (four VVER440 reactors) and replacing Rosatom as the main contractor for Paks 2 (two VVER1200 reactors) is regarded as a non-starter by most industry experts. If the EU slaps sanctions on Russia’s nuclear industry, a move currently being debated, it would cause major difficulties for Hungary.

Rosatom is Hungary’s sole provider of nuclear fuel, which since the war in Ukraine began has had to be airfreighted to Hungary across Belarusian and Polish airspace. “The fact is that Russian nuclear fuel is both technologically and economically excellent,” Tamas Pazmandi, head of the Radiation Protection Department of the Centre for Energy Research, tells BIRN.

Pazmandi admits that diversification of the nuclear supply chain is probably necessary, but warns it will take longer than many might hope or expect. “Replacing Rosatom with another supplier would require years, due to the complicated process of development, production and licensing. In a best-case scenario, it would be possible around 2026-2027,” he explains.

Others point out that currently no alternative fuel is even available for the VVER440-type reactors, dismissing speculation that Westinghouse or Framatome could offer an immediate alternative to Rosatom.

Even for the Paks 2 project, where construction work has not started, a switch to a different company would mean starting again from scratch. “If you want to buy a Mercedes, you don’t ask Volvo to manufacture it – it is an entirely different car,” Pazmandi says by way of example. “It is the same with nuclear power plants. This is a Russian-designed plant, with all its licenses. On the supplier level there are possibilities for diversification, but the main design and the main contractor cannot be replaced or you will have a completely different project.”

Government-close experts like Otto Toldi from the Climate Research Institute have argued that Rosatom holds another unique advantage: it takes care of the nuclear waste, which none of its rivals can do. Yet this, it turns out, is not actually true: although the original contract between Hungary and the Soviet Union in the 1980s included a paragraph about the repatriation of nuclear waste, that ceased in the mid-1990s on Russia’s request. When Hungary joined the EU in 2004, it came under Euratom regulations, which basically forbids the export of nuclear waste. Spent fuel is now stored for five years in a cooling pond on-site, and then put in a dry storage facility. Last year, an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) team of experts reported that, “Hungary is moving ahead in the development of a deep geological disposal facility for high level waste.”

Media friendly to the government, however, have been speculating that Rosatom could offer in the case of the Paks 2 project to take back some of the spent fuel and recycle it. Remix technology, which was tested in the Balakovo nuclear power plant in southwest Russia, is based on extracting uranium and plutonium from spent fuel and converting it into new fuel rods. The recycled fuel rods could then be used for nuclear fuel, with the remaining waste sent back to Hungary. Western companies can offer similar technology, called MOX fuel (mixed oxide fuel, consisting of plutonium blended with uranium), with France being one of the pioneers in Europe.

Hungary’s only real alternative to Russian-built reactors would be small modular reactors, or SMRs. Though touted as the future of nuclear energy, the technology is still in its infancy: there are only three SMRs operational in the world – in Russia, China and India – with three under construction and another 65 in design. Hungarian Energy Minister Csaba Lantos said recently SMRs are a viable option for the future.

“In an ideal situation, one-third of Hungary’s electricity demand would be covered by a regular nuclear power plant, one-third by SMRs and one-third by renewables,” Pazmandi says.

June 21, 2023 Posted by | EUROPE, politics international, wastes | Leave a comment

Putin warns NATO over being drawn into Ukraine war

By Zahid Mahmood, CNN, June 17, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned there is a “serious danger” of NATO being drawn further into the Ukraine war if members of the alliance continue to supply military weaponry to Kyiv.

“NATO, of course, is being drawn into the war in Ukraine, what are we talking here,” Putin said at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on Friday.

“The supplies of heavy military weaponry to Ukraine are ongoing, they are now looking into giving Ukraine the jets.”

The comment appeared to be a reference to the F-16 fighter jets some members of the NATO alliance are making plans to supply Ukraine with.

NATO, or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, was formed in the aftermath of World War II to defend Western nations from the Soviet Union [despite USSR being their ally in WW2 !]and the alliance contains a mutual defense clause where an attack on any one member is considered an attack on all. While Ukraine is not a member of NATO, some NATO members have been supplying Kyiv with tanks, armored vehicles and other weaponry – prompting threats of retaliation from Russia.

German Leopard 2 tanks, British Challenger 2 tanks and American Bradley and Stryker vehicles are among the Western equipment that has been sent to Ukraine.

In late April, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said that NATO allies and partners had delivered more than 1,500 vehicles and 230 tanks to the country.

During his speech in St. Petersburg, Putin said Russia had destroyed tanks “including Leopards” at the front lines.

“And if they are based abroad, but used in fighting we’ll see how to hit them, and where we can hit those means that are used against us in fighting,” Putin said.

“This is a serious danger of further drawing NATO into this military conflict,” he added………………………….. https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/17/europe/nato-danger-ukraine-war-putin-intl-hnk/index.html

June 20, 2023 Posted by | politics international, Russia, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Zelensky admits that there was an ongoing civil war prior to the Russian invasion, claims Russia will attack a NATO member

Zelensky Slams Trump for Saying He Would End the War in Ukraine

The Ukrainian leader admitted that there was an ongoing civil war prior to the Russian invasion.

By Kyle Anzalone / Antiwar June 18, 2023

In an interview with NBC News, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attacked former President Donald Trump’s pledge to end the war. He argued that if Kiev does not defeat Moscow, Russia will attack a NATO member state and force the US into a direct conflict.

Zelensky was asked about Trump’s claim he would immediately engage the Kremlin in talks and bring the war to a negotiated settlement. “Are they ready to start a war to send their children? Are they ready to die?” he said in the interview that was published on Thursday. “If Russia occupies Ukraine, they will move on to the Baltic countries, to Poland, to any NATO country, and in that particular case the U.S. will have to choose between dismantling NATO or fighting.”

Kiev and hawks in Washington have asserted that Ukraine is a bulwark, protecting members of NATO from Moscow’s expansionist ambitions. However, there is no evidence that the Kremlin eyes attacking another country. Russian President Vladimir Putin views Ukraine as a unique security threat to his county and says seizing territory protects Moscow against the expanding NATO alliance.

Ukraine hopes to be added as a member of the alliance once the war is over. “We need an invitation, and it needs to be clear that after this war, if we are ready, and if the Ukraine army is ready to NATO standards, then after the war we will be invited to join.” Zelensky continued, “It’s very important to hear the truth and not tell us lies.”

In 2008, Ukraine was told it would one day receive full NATO membership. At the time, Moscow denounced the proposal, saying it violated red lines and, from the Russian perspective, would create a significant security threat.

Despite the Russian objections, NATO maintains its doors are open to new members, but Ukraine does not currently meet the requirements. As Kiev is currently at war with Moscow, admitting Ukraine into the alliance will put NATO in direct confrontation with Russia.

At times, Kiev appears to be frustrated with NATO refusing to make a formal commitment to Ukraine. Zelensky is threatening to sit out a coming meeting of the North Atlantic alliance in July because Ukraine will not receive a pledge to become a member at the end of the war.

Zelensky went on to slam Trump, claiming he was unable to end the war in Ukraine while he was in office. “Why didn’t he do that earlier? He was president when the war was going on here,” he explained. “I think he couldn’t do that. I think there are no people today in the world who could just have a word with Putin and end the war.”

The statement appears to be an admission from Zelensky that the war in Ukraine began before the Russian invasion in 2022. Prior to the Russian invasion, Ukraine was embroiled in an eight-year-long civil war. Washington and NATO justify their support for Kiev by saying the Russian invasion was “unprovoked.”

The Minsk Accords were agreed to by Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France with the intention of ending the civil war. However, Zelensky was unable to get neo-nazi paramilitaries fighting for Ukraine to comply with the agreement. In the days before the Russian invasion, there was a surge in fighting between Ukrainian forces and rebels in the Donbas region.

June 20, 2023 Posted by | politics international, Ukraine | 3 Comments

Victoria Nuland to announce Ukraine to join NATO – the start of World War 3

Antonio Sontavo 14 June 23, The next meeting of NATO Heads of State and, Government will take place, in Vilnius on 11-12 July 2023. Victoria Nuland will announce that Ukraine is joining NATO, at that meeting on July 11 2023. The announcement, will mark the beginning, of World War Three.

June 16, 2023 Posted by | politics international, Ukraine, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Key renewables vote in European Council postponed over nuclear spat

The Swedish presidency is leery of France blocking the approval process at the last minute.

BY VICTOR JACK  https://www.politico.eu/article/key-renewables-vote-council-postponed-nuclear-spat/ JUNE 14, 2023 

The Swedish Council presidency has again delayed the formal approval of the Renewable Energy Directive (REDIII) as it tries to resolve a French-led feud among countries over the role of nuclear energy.

EU ambassadors on Wednesday were due to sign off on REDIII, an integral part of the bloc’s flagship Fit for 55 climate package that aims to slash emissions by 55 percent by 2030 and ramp up the share of renewables in the EU’s energy mix to 42.5 percent.

But the vote was postponed until Friday to give EU countries time to digest a last-minute proposal by the Swedish presidency circulated late Tuesday meant to placate France, according to two diplomats, who were granted anonymity to speak candidly about country dynamics.

EU capitals and the Parliament reached a provisional deal on the text in March, but Paris has been pushing for a greater role for its atomic sector. Those efforts have riled nuclear-skeptic countries including Luxembourg and Germany, as well as countries previously sympathetic to France’s views. Earlier this month, 10 EU countries told the Swedish presidency to find a deal “as soon as possible.”

The Swedish presidency already pushed back approval of its compromise text last month out of concern that France could torpedo the process.

The new Swedish compromise text adds language to the text’s non-binding preamble that would allow a rebate for certain existing ammonia production plants in meeting an industry sub-target for renewable energy, providing a limited loophole for hydrogen derived from non-renewable sources.

Several EU ambassadors in today’s meeting queried whether the late addition would create legal uncertainties and require re-opening negotiations with the Parliament, the two diplomats said.

The postponement of a deal on REDIII has implications for a related file on sustainable aviation fuels, ReFuelEU aviation. That was due to be signed off on Wednesday, but has also been pushed back until Friday.

June 16, 2023 Posted by | EUROPE, politics international | Leave a comment

South Korea begins public briefings to address concern over Fukushima water

South Korea’s fisheries ministry held the first of a series of nationwide
briefings for the public on Tuesday regarding seafood safety amid Japan’s
plan to release treated radioactive water from the disaster-hit Fukushima
nuclear power plant into the sea.

The Oceans and Fisheries Ministry said
Monday the briefings will continue until late June to provide scientific
information on the treated water at the Fukushima No. 1 plant that Japan
plans to start discharging in the summer.

The first event was held in the
southern port city of Busan with about 40 people — all working in the
local fisheries industry — in attendance, a ministry official said. Song
Sang-keun, the vice fisheries minister, said Monday, “(The ministry)
plans to meet face-to-face with the public, especially those working in the
fisheries industry, to explain how safe our marine products are, based on
scientific and objective facts. “There is no way that inappropriate
marine products will get to the table of our people,” Song added.

Japan Times 14th June 2023

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/06/14/national/south-korea-briefings-fukushima-water/

June 15, 2023 Posted by | politics international, South Korea | Leave a comment

In July, NATO nations will upgrade Ukraine’s status as a future member, but in a rather confusing way.

Gathering in Vilnius is likely to result in post-war security guarantees and easier route to join alliance when the time comes

Ukraine will not be offered timeline for Nato membership at summit in July Patrick Wintour, Guardian, 14 June 23,

Ukraine will not be offered a timeline with specific dates by which it can join Nato at its summit in Vilnius next month but instead may be offered a shorter route when an offer of membership is made. The proposal, reflecting a gathering consensus of key partners in the western defence alliance, will come as a disappointment to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Nato members, but outside formal Nato structures, will also offer post-conflict security guarantees to Ukraine, which are likely to take the shape of broad commitments to protect Ukraine from assaults by Russia. They are also expected to continue to provide ammunition and to help the Ukrainian armed forces become more convergent with Nato. But the commitments are likely to take a broad high level form rather than be specific offers of weaponry.

The countries at the centre of the negotiations said it is normal in the run-up to a summit for Nato members still to be in disagreement. However, they hoped a possible commitment that Ukraine would not have to meet conditions set out in a laborious membership application plan (MAP) and instead gain near automatic membership once an invitation is offered would be recognised as an upgrade from anything offered to the country before. Finland and Sweden have been offered Nato membership without needing to complete a MAP.

It is also likely that Nato will upgrade its current political relationship with Ukraine from the current Nato-Ukraine commission to a Nato-Ukraine council, an upgrade that gives Ukraine a higher status in joint meetings. One diplomat conceded the upgrade was unlikely to mean much to the average Ukrainian soldier fighting on the frontline but insisted it had a real value.

Juliette Smith, the US ambassador to Nato, said an upgrade to a council format “would shift the fundamental dynamics”, since Ukraine would be meeting as one of 32 attendees, as opposed to a format of 31 plus one. This would change the potential agenda items, something the US would welcome, she said.

All sides have long accepted that Ukraine cannot become a Nato member in the middle of a conflict but Kyiv, backed by Baltic states and Poland, would like a date or a timeline by which it could join once the conflict ends. A Vilnius commitment to membership has been proposed.

The absence of a date or clear conditions that Ukraine would need to meet to gain automatic Nato status will lead to Ukrainian accusations that Nato is doing little more than re-offering the promise of membership made to Ukraine at the Nato Bucharest summit in April 2008 when Nato said it had agreed Ukraine and Georgia will become members of Nato. Western countries said it would be perfectly understandable for Ukraine to be angry but insist the wording, coupled with the security commitments, can be an improvement.

The need to maintain Nato unity at such a critical time is seen as paramount, with Vladimir Putin likely to be the only beneficiary of an acrimonious Nato summit in which different sides fall out over Ukraine’s future Nato status. Full Nato membership gives members the protection umbrella of Nato’s Article 5 commitment to collective self-defence.

An attempt to require all Nato members to ensure 2% of GDP is spent on defence is also expected at the summit……………………………….more https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/14/ukraine-will-not-be-offered-timeline-for-nato-membership-at-summit-in-july

June 15, 2023 Posted by | politics international, Ukraine | Leave a comment

EU to vote on renewables bill again after being stalled on nuclear row

France wants the law to recognise low-carbon nuclear energy as a component of renewable targets, while Bulgaria, Romania and Poland call the targets overambitious.

By Ashima Sharma,  https://www.power-technology.com/news/eu-to-vote-on-renewables-bill-after-nuclear-row/ 12 June 23

U diplomats will vote on the bloc’s new renewable energy bill on Wednesday after a group of countries, including France, registered last-minute opposition in May. 

The bill proposes a binding goal for all EU countries to generate 42.5% of their energy from renewable sources by 2030. While France wanted the law to recognise low-carbon nuclear energy as a component of renewable targets, Bulgaria, Romania, and Poland say the targets are overambitious.  

The EU’s current share of renewables in the energy mix is 22%. However, the share of the energy mix is unevenly distributed among the countries. Sweden’s share of renewable energy is 63%, while Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta and the Netherlands comprise less than 13% of the total energy share.  

The revised directive on renewables doubles the current targets with an ambition to accelerate the bloc’s plan to fight climate change and end dependence on Russian fuel. Meeting the new goals requires scaling up wind and solar farms, increasing the production of renewable gases and integrating Europe’s power grids to accommodate cleaner energy. 

While nuclear energy is low-carbon, it is not renewable. France is, however, pushing for more favourable treatment of nuclear energy. The country maintains that the new bill puts countries like France, with a huge nuclear share, at a disadvantage. In May this year, the French Parliament passed a law to accelerate the construction of new nuclear reactors.  

The revised directive on renewables doubles the current targets with an ambition to accelerate the bloc’s plan to fight climate change and end dependence on Russian fuel. Meeting the new goals requires scaling up wind and solar farms, increasing the production of renewable gases and integrating Europe’s power grids to accommodate cleaner energy. 

While nuclear energy is low-carbon, it is not renewable. France is, however, pushing for more favourable treatment of nuclear energy. The country maintains that the new bill puts countries like France, with a huge nuclear share, at a disadvantage. In May this year, the French Parliament passed a law to accelerate the construction of new nuclear reactors.  

June 14, 2023 Posted by | EUROPE, politics international | Leave a comment

European Union to try again for renewable energy deal after nuclear row

By Kate AbnettJune 10, 2023

BRUSSELS, June 10 (Reuters) – European Union countries will try again next week to pass a deal on new renewable energy targets, which have been stalled by concerns from France and other states that the law sidelines nuclear energy.

A group of countries including France lodged last-minute opposition to the EU’s law on more ambitious renewable energy goals last month, putting on hold a main pillar of the bloc’s plans to tackle climate change.

EU country diplomats will attempt to approve the law on Wednesday, according to an agenda for the meeting published late on Friday.

Paris has sought changes to the law to offer more favourable treatment of nuclear energy, and said the final deal puts at a disadvantage countries like France with large shares of nuclear power. Nuclear energy is low-carbon, but not renewable.

The EU law is designed to drive a rapid expansion of renewable energy sources like wind and solar. The deal negotiated this year offered some compromises, including lower renewable fuel targets for industry, in countries that have already used nuclear power to slash their use of fossil fuels…………………

France’s energy ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said on Thursday France will not give up the competitive advantages linked to nuclear power, noting that EU countries have the right to choose their own energy mix.

Other pro-nuclear EU members including Bulgaria, Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic had also signalled they would not support the renewable law – citing concerns including, for some, that the targets are simply too high.

Together, they have enough votes to block the law.

It is unusual for countries to reject pre-agreed deals on EU laws, which follow months of negotiations.

Meanwhile, states including Germany and Luxembourg – both anti-nuclear countries – plus Denmark and Ireland have urged the EU to resolve the spat quickly, warning the delay endangers investments in renewable energy.

Reporting by Kate Abnett Additional reporting by Dominique Vidalon Editing by Frances Kerry  https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-try-again-renewable-energy-deal-after-nuclear-row-2023-06-10/

June 14, 2023 Posted by | EUROPE, politics international | Leave a comment

France’s EDF and the global nuclear lobby sulking because Europe won’t accept their lie that nuclear power is “renewable”.

‘Not there yet’: France’s EDF frustrated with nuclear power’s status in EU’s Net-Zero Industry Act, By Frédéric Simon | EURACTIV.com 11 June 23,

Supporters of nuclear power in France have welcomed plans to scrap the two-tier approach to low-carbon technologies in the EU’s draft Net-Zero Industry Act (NZIA) but they also condemn the lower status granted to atomic energy as “incoherent” with the bloc’s wider decarbonisation goals.

Tabled by the European Commission in March, the NZIA aims to ensure Europe is capable of producing domestically at least 40% of the technologies it deems “strategic” to achieve its goal of reducing emissions to net zero by 2050.

But while nuclear energy was catalogued among the EU’s net-zero industries, it did not make it into the list of “strategic” technologies – such as wind, solar, batteries and electrolysers – that are eligible for the 40% domestic manufacturing benchmark, as well as quicker permitting procedures and looser EU state aid oversight.

Under the Commission’s proposal, only Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and “advanced technologies” producing energy from nuclear processes “with minimal waste from the fuel cycle” would be eligible for the ‘strategic’ label.

“The cutting-edge nuclear is in for specific fields, but not for all,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen explained after an EU summit in March, causing uproar among nuclear energy fans on social media.

Technological neutrality

Legislators are now examining the proposed NZIA regulation, with the European Parliament and EU member states aiming to reach an agreement on a joint text before the end of the year.

And for nuclear power advocates, the Parliament’s draft position on the regulation means more frustration, even though some see encouraging signs as well…………………………………..

EDF, the French state-owned electric utility, appears even more bitter, denouncing the “incoherence” of ignoring a mature technology like nuclear power, which emits almost no carbon dioxide, in a legislative text meant to promote zero-emission technologies.

“The only nuclear power included in the NZIA is the one which does not yet exist – Small Modular Reactors (SMRs),” said Erkki Maillard, senior vice president for EU affairs at EDF, which returned under full state ownership this week……………………………………..

Nuclear alliance

France is not alone in its quest to win recognition for nuclear power as a strategic net-zero technology.

Last month, a group of 16 European countries taking part in the French-led “nuclear alliance” signed a joint declaration in which they encouraged the European Commission “to recognise nuclear energy in the EU’s energy strategy” and promote “better conditions for the development and deployment of new nuclear energy capacity in the EU”.

………………………………………. Parliament lawmakers have until 19 June to table amendments to the NZIA regulation.

The Parliament’s industry committee, which has the lead on the matter, is scheduled to vote on the proposal on 12 October, before a plenary vote expected the following month. This will open the way for decisive talks with EU member states and the European Commission to finalise the law’s adoption.

June 14, 2023 Posted by | EUROPE, politics international | Leave a comment

Iranian Supreme Leader Says ‘Nothing Wrong’ With A Nuclear Deal With West

 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-khamenei-nuclear-deal-approval/32454257.html 12 June 23

Iran’s supreme leader said on June 11 that a deal with the West over Tehran’s nuclear work was possible if the country’s atomic infrastructure remained intact, amid a stalemate between Tehran and Washington to revive a 2015 nuclear pact.

Months of indirect talks between Tehran and Washington to salvage the nuclear accord with six major powers have stalled since September, with each side accusing the other of making unreasonable demands. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s guarded approval comes days after both Tehran and Washington denied a report that they were nearing an interim deal. To read the original story by Reuters, click here.

June 14, 2023 Posted by | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

Oman facilitating Iran-US talks to replace 2015 nuclear accord

MUSCAT DAILY, 12 JUN 2023

Tehran, Iran – Iran on Monday said it has continued indirect negotiations with the Unites States through the Sultanate of Oman over its nuclear deal and a possible prisoner swap.

Iran’s nuclear programme has long been the subject of scrutiny from Western powers, resulting in sanctions that have crippled the country’s economy.

A 2015 deal granted Tehran much-needed relief from sanctions in exchange for curbs on its nuclear programme before it was torpedoed by the United States’ unilateral pullout in 2018.

In recent days, the two capitals have denied media reports that they were close to reaching an interim deal to replace the 2015 accord.

“We welcome the efforts of Omani officials and we exchanged messages with the other party through this mediator” over the lifting of US sanctions, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said on Monday.

“We have never stopped the diplomatic processes,” he added during his weekly press conference, emphasising that the talks “were not secret”.

Diplomatic ties between Tehran and Washington soured following the 1979 revolution led by Iran’s first supreme leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

Efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal have so far failed to yield results.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Sunday reiterated the denial of moves towards acquiring a nuclear weapon. He also said deals could be reached, provided they do not change “the existing infrastructure of the nuclear industry”……………………………………………..more https://www.muscatdaily.com/2023/06/12/oman-facilitating-iran-us-talks-to-replace-2015-nuclear-accord/

June 13, 2023 Posted by | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

Anxiety and disagreement in South Korea about Fukushima radioactive wastewater

[Lee Kyong-hee] Fallout from Fukushima radioactive wastewater, By Korea Herald, Jun 8, 2023 

“………………….. quoting a diplomatic source, the reports say that President Yoon Suk Yeol vowed to make all-out efforts to remove public concerns in Korea about the wastewater discharge when he met Japanese lawmakers in March during his visit to Tokyo for a summit with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

Many Koreans were caught off guard, and this administration’s purported stance is further proof that their president is bent on fence-mending with an unrepentant government at whatever cost. 

 Yoon has neither confirmed nor denied the reports. Transparency is not a priority of his administration, though his search for avenues of rapprochement with Japan is clear.

As Yoon remains tight-lipped, we can only guess his views about the rationality of the discharge and whether he grasps the potential risks. Hence a confrontation with the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea is underway, each side blaming the other for spreading malicious rumors lacking scientific basis.

Amid the accusations, the science community also has misgivings. Seo Kyun-ryeol, a professor emeritus at Seoul National University’s Department of Nuclear Engineering, is an outspoken critic. He is among several scientists who question the contaminated water filtration process and cautions that sea currents will ultimately bring some of discharged wastewater to Korea’s shores.

…………………….public mistrust is understandable, given TEPCO’s history; a Japanese government investigation report in 2012 said TEPCO had failed to meet initial safety requirements.

………………………. Seo says, “There is no guarantee that all of the system’s many filters for different isotopes will work perfectly all of the time, given the condition and quantity of the water, let alone the period of time required.”

The SNU professor highlights the potential hazards associated with cesium, strontium and plutonium, which were released from the reactors due to the disaster. “These substances not only enter the bloodstream but also penetrate the muscles, bones and brain, leading to the development of solid cancers and tumors,” he said.

Seo has raised concerns that marine life and ocean currents can carry harmful radioactive isotopes across the Pacific. He warns of the potential risks to entire marine ecosystems, from the deep-sea organisms up to invertebrates, fish and marine mammals through the food chain, eventually reaching humans.

Naturally, among the most vocal critics of the ocean discharge is the Pacific Islands Forum, an organization representing 18 island nations. They have already suffered from nuclear tests by the United States and European countries. Their concerns are reasonable as most of their populations are coastal residents who depend on the ocean for their livelihoods.

The International Atomic Energy Agency is expected to release its final assessment later this month before Japan embarks on its plan. The root of the problem, as contended by Ken Buesseler, a marine radiochemist and advisor to the Pacific Islands Forum, is that Japan is moving already with a plan which has not proven workable.

Masashi Goto, a retired nuclear engineer who designed reactor containment vessels for Toshiba for many years, bemoans the “safety culture” he encountered in the industry. In a presentation marking the 10th year after the Fukushima accident, he said, “Risks can be expressed in terms of their potential for damage or probability of occurrence. Many unlikely scenarios run the risk of horrendous consequences.”

Goto’s views concerning the decommissioning of a nuclear reactor are worth heeding. “TEPCO claims to have a decommissioning schedule that can be completed within the next 30 to 40 years, but this is completely unrealistic. Given the severity of what happened and the current state of the reactors, in practice we are looking at a process lasting anywhere from 100 to 200 years.”

“What is the number one priority? It’s the same question that was thrust upon the citizens of Japan 10 years ago. Do we prioritize the economy and convenience at any cost, or do we choose to live modestly in safety and free from worry?” he asked.

All said, Japan should suspend the planned release of the wastewater. Heeding the concerns of the international community, it may well consider other possible options, such as long-term storage and processing through half-lives of isotopes or cement-based solidification. https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20230607000843

June 12, 2023 Posted by | politics international, South Korea | Leave a comment

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