New START is the only U.S.-Russian nuclear treaty still in effect. Time to renew it
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Minister Lavrov was specific that Washington must agree to extend New START before Russia would agree to include new Russian systems in future negotiations. Secretary Pompeo reiterated the U.S. position that future arms control talks must embrace the White House desire to include China in a trilateral arms control agreement. Frankly, holding New START hostage to Chinese agreement to join a trilateral negotiation makes no sense. Under New START, Russia and the U.S. are permitted to deploy up to 1,550 nuclear warheads. China maintains a minimum deterrence force that the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency recently stated to be a couple of hundred nuclear warheads. Given this large disparity, China has little to gain from negotiating and has shown little interest in doing so. If Russia and the U.S. can bring their numbers down significantly through a new round of negotiations, there could be a basis then to persuade China to join a trilateral negotiation. The Trump administration should immediately accept the Russian offer to extend the New START Treaty and to engage in a new round of strategic arms negotiations. New START is the only U.S.-Russian nuclear treaty still in effect. If the pact is permitted to expire in February 2021, there will be no limits on Russian strategic systems and no inspection regime to verify what types and numbers of systems the Russians are deploying. The Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Intelligence Community are solidly in favor of extending New START because they know what the adverse impact will be on our ability to assess the threat to U.S. interests and our planning to address that threat. A bold approach the U.S. should consider is to enter into a negotiation now with Russia to extend New START at a lower level of 1,000 deployed warheads from the currently authorized 1,550. During the 2010 negotiations on New START, the Joint Chiefs certified that 1,000 would be adequate to support our deterrence strategy. …….. https://thehill.com/opinion/international/494960-time-to-restart-nuclear-arms-negotiations-with-russia |
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USA’s complicated and contradictory plan to punish Iran
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US pushing to punish Iran by invoking nuclear deal Trump abandonedDiplomats fear drive is an attempt by Washington hawks to destroy nuclear deal and sabotage United Nations Independent UK, Borzou DaragahiInternational Correspondent @borzou 2 May 20
The United States is pushing ahead with a scheme to extend a United Nations arms embargo on Iran that is due to be lifted in October as part of the nuclear deal that Washington abandoned two years ago. To force the extension, Washington will attempt to lobby the Security Council to continue the arms embargo, which bars weapons sales to or from Iran. But it also is making what legal experts and diplomats describe as a convoluted argument that it is still part of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action it left, and hence able to use one of its provisions to “snapback” the embargo. The administration’s plan is to claim it is still part of the Security Council resolution that enshrined the nuclear deal in international law even though Mr Trump trashed the agreement, meant to curtail Tehran’s atomic technology programme, as the “worst deal” in history. The plan was first reported by The New York Times earlier this week……… diplomats and scholars fear that the Trump administration’s latest gambit is a move by hardline Washington fixtures aimed at delivering a lasting blow to any prospects for a future deal with Iran, as well as part and parcel of far-right efforts to damage international multilateral institutions. “The administration is trying to force everyone’s hand by creating yet another crisis that they hope this time would bring down the JCPOA for good,” said Ali Vaez, of the International Crisis Group, a conflict-resolution advocacy organisation. Iran, which has severely downgraded its adherence to provisions of the nuclear deal in response to crippling US sanctions, has vowed that any reimposition of international sanctions would prompt it to leave the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and potentially open the door for it to pursue nuclear weapons……. |
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Time to support humanitarian initiatives for North Korea
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The Looming Crises in North Korea: Coronavirus, Starvation and a Nuclear Test ,https://nationalinterest.org/blog/korea-watch/looming-crises-north-korea-coronavirus-starvation-and-nuclear-test-149301 29 Apr 20, “We will know soon enough what is going on with Kim Jong-un. However, for now, one thing is very clear. North Korea is on the precipice of crisis—from wide-spread illness and starvation or from a nuclear provocation that escalates into a disastrous miscalculation. We can choose to ignore past lessons when perhaps millions died before in North Korea, but I cannot.”
by Philip W. Yun In the midst of a world engulfed in pandemic, economic meltdown and distracting speculation over Kim Jong-un’s health, we are in danger of missing two new crises to come: (1) an overwhelming cycle of disease and famine in North Korea; as well as (2) a seventh North Korean nuclear weapons test. Both possibilities ominously signal what we don’t need more of — major instability in Northeast Asia which risks miscalculation and possibly war. As a former State Department official, I bore witness through cables and media reports to the North’s 1990’s famine, and during official trips to Pyongyang, I saw the heavy toll of mass starvation on the faces of Pyongyang’s residents. Reportedly millions died. As a second-generation Korean-American, I promised myself then that I would not let another similar tragedy unfold without sounding the alarm.
Pyongyang has proudly declared that it has no COVID-19 cases. Few believe this is true. Even with comprehensive social distancing and draconian quarantine measures, we know that viruses respect no borders. So even taking the regime’s assertions at face value, it is only a matter of time before the disease mounts its own kind of invasion.
In the case of COVID-19, North Korea’s citizenry is particularly susceptible to a devastating outbreak. Decades of malnutrition have left the population’s health and immunity compromised. North Korea’s persistently high rates of respiratory diseases like tuberculosis show the country is not capable of dealing with these types of sicknesses at any scale. Where international sanctions are stringent and the economy sputtering, domestic shortages are chronic — the country will have few personal protective equipment (PPE), ventilators and other medical basics. Rather than request international assistance, its mistaken priority to keep the country under control will likely delay an effective response until it is too late.
To make matters worse, North Korea may soon be facing more food shortages. The challenge is daunting even in normal times. But during a pandemic, who will plant, harvest and process badly needed grains if all are sheltering or ill?
When faced with a crushing combination of large-scale malnutrition and COVID-19, the regime will do what it always does when it doesn’t have proper tools — it will triage. North Korea will devote precious resources to its privileged and not to everyday North Koreans, leaving them to simply die either from disease or lack of food. Regardless, the loss in human life could be shocking and threatening to the regime’s very existence. Adding to this morass is the high likelihood that North Korea will test another nuclear device. Here’s why: First, Kim Jong-un was embarrassed by last year’s summit in Hanoi because the North’s leaders had high expectations for concrete gains (like sanctions relief); yet nothing came. Relations with the U.S. are dead. Kim’s highly publicized remarks in December 2019 have arguably rejected diplomacy while simultaneously bracing the country for greater hardship and possible provocations. With a population under pressure, Kim will do what many political leaders do when stressed, internally rally his country by touting an outside threat. Second, the North’s leaders are skilled at making the country’s weakness an asset, usually by resorting to nuclear extortion to draw international benefits. We can expect more of this. More troubling, however, is North Korea’s tendency to double down and show “strength” during unusual internal turmoil – usually in the form of a deliberate warning to adversaries to back off and leave the country alone. If Kim Jong-un is ailing or dead, then this incentive becomes even greater for those in charge and a nuclear test more certain. Third, there is a technical imperative. To produce a truly operational nuclear device, North Korea must test again. Undoubtedly, its military is aggressively lobbying for another test because it sees a nuclear weapon as the best guarantee against invasion and attack. Finally, there is perhaps a no better time to conduct a test than this year. Governments around the globe are mired in and distracted by a pandemic and the prospect of world-wide depression. Ever opportunistic, the North could very well calculate the international political costs of a nuclear test as minimal. So what do we do?Having contained COVID-19, South Korea has the means and know-how to help the North; its President Moon Jae-in, the will. The U.S. needs to set aside differences with the South over security costs and fully support upcoming peace and humanitarian initiatives that are sure to come. The U.S. must then work with the WHO and others, like Japan, Russia, and China, to put together a comprehensive approach that will augment South Korean efforts. While a decision to conduct a nuclear weapons test or some other provocation is solely up to North Korea, there is a small chance, and one worth taking, that American willingness to help the North during a time of dire need may create an opening to somehow persuade the North to forego a test. Lastly and perhaps most importantly, the U.S. must lead. We can’t do everything, nor should we, but our role in the world, I believe, remains essential.
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South Korea’s government dismissed rumours about North Korean leader Kim Jong Un being gravely ill
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un health rumours dismissed by South Korean intelligence, ABC News, 27 Apr 20, South Korea’s Government has dismissed rumours that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is in a fragile condition, as speculation about his health intensifies amid the North’s silence on his whereabouts.
Unification Minister Kim Yeon-chul told a closed-door forum in Seoul that South Korea had “enough intelligence to confidently say that there are no unusual developments” in rival North Korea that would back up speculation about Mr Kim’s health, his ministry said.
The minister did not reveal what specific intelligence led to that conclusion, but stressed that it was reached after a thorough analysis.
His comments are a reiteration of earlier South Korean statements that Mr Kim appeared to be handling state affairs normally and that no unusual activities had been detected in North Korea.
Those comments, however, failed to dispel the rumours about Mr Kim, partly because past outside intelligence reports on developments in North Korea have sometimes turned out to be wrong. …..
As the absolute leader of a country with a nuclear weapons program, Mr Kim’s health is a matter of intense interest both regionally and globally.
If something were to happen to him, it could lead to instability in North Korea. Mr Kim hasn’t publicly anointed a successor, and that has prompted questions about who would take control of North Korea if he is gravely ill or dies…..
serious unrest could occur if a power struggle erupts between those supporting the Kim dynasty and those who want non-Kim rule…….. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-28/kim-jong-un-health-rumours-south-korea-intelligence/12191504
U.S. govt disregards nuclear diseconomics, pushes new nuclear power to support nuclear weapons
On April 23 the strongly pro-nuclear results of the Nuclear Fuel Working Group (NFWG) were made public by the US Department of Energy (DoE)
Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette announced the NFWG’s results and urged:
- Taking immediate and bold action to strengthen the uranium mining and conversion industries and restore the viability of the entire front-end of the nuclear fuel cycle.
• Utilizing American technological innovation and advanced nuclear RD&D investments to consolidate technical advances and strengthen American leadership in the next generation of nuclear energy technologies.
• Ensuring that there will be a healthy and growing nuclear energy sector to which uranium miners, fuel cycle providers, and reactor vendors can sell their products and services.
• Taking a whole-of-government approach to supporting the U.S. nuclear energy industry in exporting civil nuclear technology in competition with state-owned enterprises.”
Brouillette’s announcement also undermines the long-cultivated narrative that ‘peaceful / civil use’ and military application of nuclear power would be separate – instead, it explicitly references the connection between the civil and military nuclear sectors:
“The United States currently has two well-defined future defense needs for domestic uranium supply: low-enriched uranium needed to produce tritium required for nuclear weapons in the 2040s, and highly-enriched uranium needed to fuel Navy nuclear reactors in the 2050s.
The Strategy also recognizes that U.S. national security is truly integrated with the health of the front-end of the nuclear fuel cycle – the United States needs a strong civil nuclear industry to enable national defense.” (underlining not in the original)
US DoE at the same date published a NFWG Factsheet: Strategy to Restore American Nuclear Energy Leadership
North Korea already has its nuclear arsenal. even if Kim should die.
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Even if Kim Jong Un dies, he has given North Korea the nuclear arsenal it needed to deter the U.S.
While North Korea is still among the world’s most impoverished nations, living standards are rising for the ruling elite in Pyongyang. Kim has shown he can endure crushing economic sanctions,National Post, Bloomberg News, Jihye Lee and Jon Herskovitz, April 23, 2020 Whatever the state of Kim Jong Un’s health, he has already put North Korea in its strongest position to resist U.S. pressure in decades. Eight years after Kim filled the power vacuum left by the death of his reclusive father, Kim Jong Il, North Korea is more secure and less isolated. The 36-year-old supreme leader has achieved two key marks of legitimacy long sought by his predecessors: a nuclear arsenal that can credibly deter an American attack and a personal relationship with the U.S. president, including three face-to-face meetings with Donald Trump. While North Korea is still among the world’s most impoverished nations, living standards are rising for the ruling elite in Pyongyang. Kim has shown he can endure crushing economic sanctions, illustrated by a United Nations report published Tuesday accusing the regime of widespread evasion. Moreover, the Kim dynasty holds a renewed pledge of strategic support from its ultimate guarantor, China. “The country has pole-vaulted in their nuclear-destruction potential and missile-delivery capabilities compared to capabilities under grandfather or father Kim,” said Soo Kim, a Rand Corp. policy analyst who specializes in Korean peninsula issues. “The specter of a North Korean nuclear attack breeds enough unease in the international community to lean more towards accommodation than confrontation.”…….. North Korea has given up little since Kim’s unprecedented handshake with Trump almost two years ago in Singapore. Besides halting launches of missiles that can reach the U.S. mainland and demolishing some testing facilities, Kim has signed only a vaguely worded pledge to “work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.” …… https://nationalpost.com/news/world/despite-kim-jong-un-health-north-korea-has-little-to-worry-about-u-s-sanctions |
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United Arab Emirates’ new ‘cheap and cheerful’ Barakah nuclear reactor adds to danger and Middle East tensions
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The wrong reactor at the wrong time”: inside the UAE’s Barakah nuclear , Power Technology, JP Casey, 17 Apr 20,
The UAE has announced that the first reactor of its under-construction Barakah nuclear power plant is scheduled to come online within “a few months”. The country’s first nuclear plant could address a key energy need in the region, but questions remain as to its usefulness and safety in a geopolitically tense environment.
……. Located 53km from the city of Ruwais in Abu Dhabi’s Gharbiya region, construction on the $20bn project began in 2012, and is finally nearing completion. With four reactors, developed by the state-owned Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation and the South Korea-based Korean Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO), the plant is expected to have an operating capacity of 5.6GW, which will account for one quarter of the country’s energy needs.
But behind these grand claims, the project has been dogged by controversy. From macro problems, such as the inherent dangers of building a nuclear reactor in a geopolitically tense region, to specific weaknesses with Barakah, such as the cracking of the cement used to build the facility itself, the project has no shortage of critics. With the UAE eager to continue with the project, its completion appears a matter of when, not if, opening up a series of lessons to learn ahead of new nuclear construction……
The plant is expected to produce 5.6GW of power once fully operational, with four reactors powered with APR-1400 technology, developed in South Korea, driving this production. This figure would make the plant the sixth-largest nuclear facility in the world by net production capacity, and its backers hope the project will help to kick-start an energy revolution in the Middle East. However, questions remain about the ultimate suitability of the plant, considering the risks inherent in nuclear and the potential for alternative sources of clean energy in the region. Dr Paul Dorfman, an honorary research associate at UCL and founder and chair of the Nuclear Consulting Group, an independent group of academics that aim to assess the risks and merits of nuclear projects, is sceptical about the suitability of Barakah for the UAE. So, given the fact – and it is a fact – that nuclear investment generates significant financial losses, one wonders if there are other reasons for Barakah,” he said. “Especially because nuclear energy seems to make limited economic sense for the Gulf States. As desert kingdoms, they have some of the best solar resources in the world, with solar having much, much lower investment and generation costs than nuclear.”
These solar resources are particularly significant considering the relative importance of renewable technology and nuclear power to the UAE’s 2050 climate goals. The nation aims to develop renewables as a primary source of power, and nuclear as a backup, a policy that could positively impact the solar industry, but hamstring the nuclear sector.
“Saudi recently tripled its renewable energy targets, and has successfully tended for large scale projects in wind and solar, with a Saudi-based consortium launching a world record low price of $17 per megawatt hour for a 900 megawatt solar park in Dubai itself,” said Dorfman. “So, worldwide and in the Gulf, the fate of new nuclear is linked to and determined by renewable energy technology rollout.” ……..
Dorfman is again concerned about these safety assurances, not only because of alleged mishaps at Barakah, but the generally lax approach to safety regulation across the nuclear sector.
“And what’s particularly worrying is the lack of a core catcher, which in the event of a failure of the emergency reactor core systems, would retain the nuclear fuel once it breached the reactor pressure vessel. On top of that, concrete cracking in all four reactor containment buildings hasn’t helped, nor has installation of faulty pilot-operated safety relief valves.”
 He also noted that KEPCO’s reputation has been somewhat tarnished by a series of scandals originating in 2013, where top safety officials were sentenced for falsifying safety documents for parts used in its nuclear reactors. 100 people were ultimately charged, as six of the country’s 23 operating nuclear reactors were shut down between late 2012 and late 2013, discrediting the reputation in which the UAE has placed such high stock to justify its safety moves at Barakah.Finances may have played a key role in the involvement of KEPCO. The UAE awarded KEPCO a contract worth $20bn for the construction of the plant, a much lower bid than was made by other firms. In 2008, Synapse Energy predicted that new nuclear construction could cost up to $9bn for each 1.1GW plant; while this figure is not a specific measurement for all nuclear facilities, this prediction would place the expected cost of Barakah at around $45bn, more than double what KEPCO invested into the facility. “It’s a bit of a ‘cheap and cheerful’ reactor,” Dorfman added. Political damage The impact of these uncertain safety credentials could significantly discredit many of the world’s nuclear regulatory bodies, which have signed off on the Barakah plant despite these risks. Dorfman said that the plight of the facility highlights the “discretionary rather than mandatory” nature of nuclear regulation, where national governments are given exclusive responsibility to enforce operational and safety standards without the support of a strong international body. “The International Atomic Energy Association can attempt to control what’s happening, but it can’t necessarily say to anybody: ‘you will do this’ or ‘you will do that’, as we’ve found out to a cost in Iran, Pakistan, or Israel,” he said. The lack of a central global executive to take responsibility for safety, and the resulting burden on national governments, means nuclear power and nuclear safety are tied to national policy and local geopolitics in a way that is unlike any other energy source. Dorfman pointed to the example of the Houthi insurgency in Yemen, which saw rebel groups overthrow the Yemeni president Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, who was allied with the Gulf states, in 2015. Two years later, the rebels claimed to have fired rockets at Barakah as a warning to the UAE against future involvement in Yemeni affairs, with the prospect of military strikes launched at a nuclear facility an obvious political, and potentially humanitarian, emergency.
“Following a very recent military strike against Saudi oil refineries, and all that implies, nuclear safety in the region increasingly revolves around the broader issue of security,” Dorfman continued, highlighting the pressure on the UAE government to ensure the security of the Barakah plant. “Tense Gulf strategic geopolitics makes new civil nuclear construction more controversial there than elsewhere,” said Dorfman, summarising many of the threats to local people and regional stability posed by the plant, which remain unresolved. “Once Barakah begins full-scale generation there will be a major maritime risk, whether directly intended or unintentional. “It’s the wrong reactor in the wrong place at the wrong time.” https://www.power-technology.com/features/the-wrong-reactor-at-the-wrong-time-inside-the-uaes-barakah-nuclear-plant/ |
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Increased tensions between USA and China, as U.S. accuses China of secret nuclear tests
Times 17th April 2020, Relations between China and the United States have plunged to a new low
after the release of a report that suggests Beijing may have conducted
secret nuclear tests, in contravention of arms treaties. Compiled by the US
state department, it says that extensive excavations have been carried out
in the desert of Lop Nur, northwest China, along with the construction of
“explosive containment” chambers. The work coincided with the blocking
of transmissions from sites that monitor levels of radiation and seismic
activity, it added.
Daily Mail 16th April 2020, China accuses the U.S. of ‘confounding black and white’ with a ‘fabricated’
report after State Department warned Beijing might be conducting small
nuclear bomb tests.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8224941/China-accuses-U-S-confounding-black-white-fabricated-nuclear-test-claims.html
President Trump ‘talked about nuclear weapons’ with Vladimir Putin in a call to the Kremlin over the weekend as START Treaty’s expiration looms
- resident Trump told reporters Monday that he discussed nuclear arms control during his latest conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin
- The president shared phone call with Putin on Sunday just hours after he helped broker a historic deal with the OPEC+ to shore up plummeting oil prices
- Trump revealed the contents of the call during the White House’s daily coronavirus press briefing on Monday evening
- ‘We did talk about the arms. Yes, we did,’ Trump told reporters from the podium. ‘It was a very important part of the call actually’
- Though Trump failed to divulge specifics the Russian president’s press secretary said Putin and Trump spoke of the START Treaty, which is set to expire next year……….. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8216245/President-Trump-talked-nuclear-weapons-Vladimir-Putin-call-weekend.html
Belarus to get a new nuclear reactor along with $10 billion debt to Russia
In January, Lithuanian Energy Minister Zygimantas Vaiciunas told RFE/RL that the Belarusian plant is “a threat to our national security, public health, and environment.”
“The key question is the site selection, which was done politically — geopolitically,” Vaiciunas told RFE/RL.
Plans for the nuclear plant were unveiled by Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka in 2008 when Minsk received a $10 billion loan from Moscow for the project.
The general contractor for the Belarusian nuclear power plant building is Atomstroiexport, an affiliate of Russia’s state-owned Rosatom. Based on reporting by TASS, ONT, and RFE/RL correspondent Matthew Luxmoore
A win-win for USA and North Korea? Helping to fight coronavirus
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Why Helping North Korea Fight Coronavirus Could Lessen the Chance of a Nuclear War https://nationalinterest.org/blog/korea-watch/why-helping-north-korea-fight-coronavirus-could-lessen-chance-nuclear-war-143697
A necessary win-win for Washington and Pyongyang?
by Cynthia Lazaroff Follow @CynthiaLazaroff on Twitter 13 Apr 20, Amidst the existential nightmare unfolding with the coronavirus, comes the news that North Korea has ramped up its missile testing and lost all interest in a dialogue with the United States. At a March meeting with G-7 Foreign Ministers, Secretary of State Pompeo called on all nations to maintain diplomatic and economic pressure on North Korea over its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Pompeo’s ill-timed call to uphold sanctions even during the global pandemic escalated tensions and triggered Pyongyang’s chilling response: North Korea has become “more zealous for our important planned projects aimed to repay the U.S. with actual horror and unrest for the sufferings it has inflicted upon our people.”
While some may call this mere bluster, Pyongyang’s warning serves as a grim reminder that the existential nuclear threat is not going on lockdown during this pandemic. It is a clear and present danger like COVID-19, invisible but very much alive. And like the virus, it has been ignored for perilously too long. Former U.S. Secretary of Defense William J. Perry has sounded the alarm: “Today, the danger of some sort of a nuclear catastrophe is greater than it was during the Cold War and most people are blissfully unaware of this danger.”
We are now awake to the COVID-19 catastrophe, the enormity of the pain and suffering, the staggering human and economic costs. Worst case projections estimate that COVID-19 deaths could be in the millions globally, with variable forecasts over the past month for America. Estimates show Americans could lose anywhere from 60,000 to 2.2 million or more of their loved ones to the virus because Washington ignored repeated warnings and failed to act before it was too late. This is the price of sleepwalking in the face of this existential threat, which is horrific, but these numbers nonetheless pale in comparison to the estimated tens of millions in North and South Korea, Japan, Guam, Hawaii and beyond who could die in the mass carnage if nuclear weapons were to be launched by Kim or Trump in a moment of anger, accident, miscalculation or mistake.
Existential threats by nature do not discriminate. Like nuclear weapons, COVID-19 attacks human beings indiscriminately, oblivious to race, religion, gender, ideology or country of origin. Like radioactive fallout, the virus does not recognize borders, and like nuclear war, it spares no one—whether rich, poor, Korean, American, sanctioned or unsanctioned.
If Washington doesn’t take emergency measures to stop the spread of COVID-19 in the human population as a whole, America fails to do so at its own peril. Outbreaks in other countries increase the risk of outbreaks around the world. This is why it makes no sense to uphold sanctions that in any way hinder a country’s capacity to combat the virus. U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet has called for humanitarian exemptions to sanctions because “in a context of global pandemic, impeding medical efforts in one country heightens the risk for all of us.” In other words, what America does to the people of North Korea, Iran, Venezuela, Russia, Cuba and other sanctioned countries, America does to itself.
If Washington doesn’t take emergency measures to stop the spread of COVID-19 in the human population as a whole, America fails to do so at its own peril. Outbreaks in other countries increase the risk of outbreaks around the world. This is why it makes no sense to uphold sanctions that in any way hinder a country’s capacity to combat the virus. U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet has called for humanitarian exemptions to sanctions because “in a context of global pandemic, impeding medical efforts in one country heightens the risk for all of us.” In other words, what America does to the people of North Korea, Iran, Venezuela, Russia, Cuba and other sanctioned countries, America does to itself.
Guterres calls on Americans further to unite now in solidarity to protect the most vulnerable and susceptible to COVID-19 everywhere—those ravaged by war, women, children, the elderly, homeless and displaced populations, along with those living in the poorest countries with weak health care infrastructures like North Korea. During this global existential crisis, Bachelet and Guterres are inviting Americans to rise to the better angels of our nature, transcend our differences and get our priorities straight: to stop wasting precious time and resources on conflict and war and mobilize as a “human family” to give it everything we’ve got to save lives.
If the United States applies Bachelet and Guterres’ recommendations to North Korea, Washington can make progress on the existential threat of COVID-19 and the existential threat of a nuclear exchange with Pyongyang. America and North Korea can work together to halt the spread of COVID-19, thereby create goodwill and de-escalate tensions. Washington can and should take further steps to reduce tensions and the risk of a nuclear missile launch due to anger, accident, miscalculation or mistake.
Here are five steps the United States should take right now:
Americans wake up every morning to soaring death tolls, the tragic cost of waiting too long to act to contain COVID-19. It is already late—for the United States, for North Korea, for the world. Millions of lives are at stake. The time to act on these existential threats is now. Cynthia Lazaroff is an expert on U.S.-Russia relations, a documentary film producer, and environmental activist. She has been engaged in Track II and 1.5 dialogue for the past forty years and has directed several films on the Soviet Union and nuclear proliferation. You can follow her on Twitter @CynthiaLazaroff. |
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New START treaty must be extended, a U.S. – Russia nuclear arms race an intolerable threat to the whole world
Extend New START — The World Can’t Afford a U.S.-Russia Nuclear Arms Race Too, JUST SECURITY, by Kingston Reif and Shannon Bugos, April 10, 2020 The unrelenting and rapid spread of the novel coronavirus underscores the cost of neglect and indecision by the Trump administration in the face of serious threats to U.S. and global security. This reckless abandonment of leadership also characterizes America’s response to other transnational challenges, including the potential for conflict on the European continent and the threat posed by nuclear weapons.
For example, The Guardian reported on April 5 that the Trump administration may withdraw the United States from the Open Skies Treaty this fall. The treaty allows for short-notice, unarmed, observation flights over the territory of treaty parties to collect data on military forces and activities, and is staunchly supported by U.S allies. Nothing screams the U.S. absence in a world starving for leadership during a pandemic than moving forward with plans to withdraw from a treaty that continues to benefit U.S. and European security and that our allies want us to continue to support.
In addition, and even more consequentially, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), which was signed a decade ago this week, expires in just 10 months. New START is the only remaining arms control agreement limiting the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals. However, as the novel coronavirus emerged earlier this year, the administration continued to stiff-arm Russian overtures to prolong the life of the agreement by five years, as permitted by the accord. Instead, the administration has pursued the idea of striking an entirely new, trilateral arms control agreement that would include China in addition to Russia.
The chances of successfully negotiating such a new, complex deal were already slim before the coronavirus pandemic. Now, in the midst of what clearly will be an extended crisis, the odds are nigh nonexistent……
Extending New START will maintain a cap on the Russian nuclear arsenal and is a necessary condition for follow-on talks with Russia and new negotiations with China. As the world girds for a long fight against the coronavirus pandemic, the preservation of New START represents the best immediate option that Trump has to reduce the risks of instability and insecurity posed by the still-bloated and dangerous U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals. https://www.justsecurity.org/69613/extend-new-start-the-world-cant-afford-a-u-s-russia-nuclear-arms-race-too/
Russia wants to extend New START nuclear weapons treaty, but the U.S. has not revealed its plans
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RUSSIA SAYS U.S. ‘UNWILLINGNESS’ IS THREATENING MAJOR NUCLEAR WEAPONS DEAL https://www.newsweek.com/russia-us-unwillingness-threatening-major-nuclear-weapons-deal-1496824 BY DAVID BRENNAN ON 4/8/20 Russia has again pointed the finger at the U.S. for delaying the extension of the New START nuclear weapons treaty, which expires next year.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters Wednesday that any questions about why the deal has not been extended should be directed to Washington rather than Moscow. Peskov said the Kremlin remains keen to make a deal, but has met with delay from the White House. “Actions on destruction of this document—on its non-extension—are taken not by Moscow,” Peskov told reporters, according to the Tass state news agency. “Rather, this is our U.S. colleagues’ unwillingness, and we have repeatedly expressed our regret in that regard.” The 10-year New START treaty came into force in 2011. It extended the existing START agreement, which was signed in the early 1990s. New START capped the number of deployed Russian and U.S. strategic nuclear warheads and bombs at 1,550, and the number of deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles and heavy bombers used for nuclear missions at 700. The total allowed number of deployed and non-deployed assets is currently 800. New START is the last of what former Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev called the “three principal pillars of global strategic stability,” following the collapse of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002 and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty last year. Russia has repeatedly said that it wants to extend New START, but the U.S. has still not revealed its plans. President Donald Trump has hinted that they wish to include China in any new deal, but experts—among them one of the original negotiators of START—have warned this is not feasible in such a short time frame. Chinese officials have dismissed any suggestion of involvement in a new treaty. Newsweek has contacted the State Department for comment on its plans regarding New START. Peskov acknowledged that the New START deal has fallen down the pecking order with the appearance of the coronavirus pandemic. Both the U.S. and Russia—like many other nations—are struggling to contain the virus. “The coronavirus has halted many vital processes,” Peskov said, “This is the reality we have to face.” Russian Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia Dmitry Medvedev—who was serving as president when New START was signed—complained Wednesday that in the nine years since the deal was agreed, the U.S. has flipped from “cooperation to political pressure and unleashed an unprecedented war of sanctions against us, trying to oust Russia from the global agenda.” In an op-ed for Tass, Medvedev suggested that removing sanctions on Moscow would be a good first step to re-open New START talks. “If the New START deal ceases to exist, its demise will have extremely serious consequences for international security,” the former president and prime minister said. Russian officials including President Vladimir Putin have urged the White House to lift sanctions—imposed because of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, support of separatists in eastern Ukraine and meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election—to help the global response to coronavirus. |
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Bosnia might need international arbitration over Croatia’s nuclear waste dump plan near the border
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Bosnia May Seek Arbitration on Croatia Nuclear Waste Dispute
https://balkaninsight.com/2020/04/08/bosnia-may-seek-arbitration-on-croatia-nuclear-waste-dispute/ Nedim Dervisbegovic, Sarajevo, BIRN
April 8, 2020, Minister says Bosnia will ramp up its protests after Croatia gives go-ahead for nuclear waste store to be built near Bosnian border. Bosnia may request international arbitration if Croatia proceeds with a plan to create a nuclear waste disposal site just across the border from Novi Grad in north-west Bosnia, Foreign Trade and Economic Relations Minister Stasa Kosarac was reported as saying. Kosarac’s ministry said dumping waste from the Croatian-Slovenian jointly-owned Krsko nuclear power plant at a former military storage facility near the Croatian town of Dvor would endanger the health and lives of some 250,000 people living in 13 Bosnian municipalities along the Una River. He made the statement after speaking with a group of ministers from Bosnia’s two entities, state parliamentarians and Novi Grad’s mayor via video link on Tuesday. Kosarac reportedly informed them about his telephone conversations with the Croatian ambassador to Bosnia, Ivan Sabolic, and Croatia’s Environment and Energy Minister, Tomislav Coric, after the fund for financing the decommissioning of the Krsko power plant and the disposal of its radioactive waste said last week that it had received approval from Coric’s environment ministry to use the former Čerkezovac military barracks at Trgovska Gora near Dvor. The statement said the video conference had concluded that Bosnia’s Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Relations would now ask the Council of Ministers – Bosnia’s state government – to help set up legal teams “to deal with this open bilateral issue with Croatia, and that budget funds be allocated for this”. “It was also concluded that it was necessary for all relevant institutions to strengthen diplomatic activities with the goal of preventing Croatia from designating this location as the final solution for the disposal of the nuclear waste,” it added. Croatia needs to take over half of the nuclear waste from the Krsko power plant, which lies inside Slovenia, by 2023. The plant was a joint venture of the two republics when both were part of former Yugoslavia. |
Trump’s stringent sanctions on Iran could result in a dangerous backlash
WW3 warning: Donald Trump’s grave error may accelerate Iran’s push for nuclear weaponsDONALD TRUMP’S military errors may spark the next world war conflict as his stringent sanctions on Iran could result in a dangerous backlash. Express UK By GERRARD KAONGA Apr 5, 2020 Tensions between the US and Iran have remained high for years and the killing of general Qassem Soleimani raised fears of World War 3 in early 2020. Iranian expert of Iran International TV Dr Pupak Mohebali warned Iran’s stockpiling of nuclear-rich Uranium and ignoring the rules of the 2015 nuclear agreement may be a response to Donald Trump’s recent military and political actions. During an interview with Express.co.uk, Dr Mohebali claimed Iran stockpiling Uranium could be linked to the US leaving the nuclear agreement in 2018 and the killing of Qassem Soleimani.
Earlier in the interview, Dr Mohebali warned one wrong move from either the US or Iran could result in a major conflict.
She said: “I would not say there is one worst-case scenario but more like a domino effect.
“One problematic decision leads to another and another.
“If Iran was to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) it could bring further diplomatic isolation.
1 This Month
26 September – International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons
PLEASE OPPOSE HR 8255 AND S.3639 – bills would accelerate satellite deployment, with no environmental review or safeguards – https://ncstd5li.quorum.us/campaign/169331/
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