Renewable energy push for Fukushima
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Nine years since nuclear disaster, Fukushima looks to hydrogen as recovery efforts chug along, https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/nine-years-since-nuclear-disaster-fukushima-looks-to-hydrogen-as-recovery-efforts11 Mar, 20 TOKYO – Fukushima is staking its future on renewable energy, taking the lead in a country that is not just squarely wedded to coal-fired power, but also reluctant to give up nuclear energy.This despite the anniversary on Wednesday (March 11) of the devastating triple tragedy nine years ago.
One of the world’s biggest renewable-based hydrogen power facilities was opened in Fukushima last Saturday, in the town of Namie that is home to just 1,100 people, or 5 per cent of the pre-disaster population. Many municipalities in the hardest-hit coastal areas of north-east Japan remain ghost towns, despite exclusion orders being gradually lifted, as former residents do not return. The full decommissioning of the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant is expected to continue until 2040 at best, while local fishermen despair over the increasing likelihood that water from the plant will be released into the Pacific Ocean. Japanese experts say all radioactive particles, except harmless tritium, would have been removed in the treatment process. Still, there are concerns that the move will further hurt a region already suffering from “toxic rumours” that have reduced demand for its produce despite stringent testing standards. Much of Japan observed a minute of silence at 2.46pm on Wednesday as emotions remain raw, especially among those directly affected by the catastrophe. It was the fateful time, down to the minute, when a magnitude 9.0 earthquake triggered 14m-high monster waves that caused nuclear meltdowns in three reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi plant. It was one of the world’s worst nuclear tragedies. Latest National Police Agency figures show a death toll of 15,899 people, with 2,529 missing. Another 3,739 people died owing to disaster-related causes, the Reconstruction Agency said. As many as 470,000 people fled their homes at the peak of the nuclear disaster, but more than 47,000 still have not returned. While many official memorial ceremonies were either scaled down or cancelled because of the coronavirus outbreak, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe vowed that the government will continue providing “seamless support to rebuild the lives of victims”. This involves not just physical infrastructure – including homes and retail businesses – to improve the living environment, but also support for new industries like that of renewables. The initial plan was to abolish the Reconstruction Agency in March 2021. But after 32 trillion yen (S$424.5 billion) was spent on rebuilding, the government decided to keep the organisation for another 10 years. Meanwhile, the Japanese government and Fukushima Daiichi operator Tokyo Electric Power Company (Tepco) continue to face civil lawsuits from Fukushima evacuees, although the sole criminal case arising from the disaster ended in a “not guilty” verdict last year. There are about 30 such civil lawsuits throughout the country. In the latest decision in favour of the plaintiffs, the Sapporo District Court on Tuesday ordered the government and Tepco to pay 52.9 million yen in damages to 89 people who evacuated to Hokkaido. Another judgment, by the Sendai High Court, is expected on Thursday. Still, Mr Abe has branded the upcoming Olympic Games as the “Reconstruction Olympics” to show the world how the region has recovered. The Olympic torch relay, which will pass through all 47 of Japan’s prefectures, is set to flag off on March 26 from the J-Village soccer training facility. It is just 20km from the nuclear plant and viewed as one of Fukushima’s key symbols of reconstruction. But environment group Greenpeace Japan had flagged in a report on Monday that typhoons like Hagibis, which battered the region last year, had created new radiation hot spots in areas that were previously cleared by the authorities. “It is vital to constantly monitor radiation levels and carry out decontamination work,” said Greenpeace representative Kazue Suzuki. Its survey found 40 hot spots with radiation levels more than four times the government’s decontamination standard of 0.23 microsievert per hour, including one with 71 microsieverts per hour near the J-Village complex. Long-term Fukushima residents, including Mr Nobuyoshi Ito, who lives in Iitate Village, have yielded similar results in grassroots surveys. “Perhaps, for runners passing through, the exposure is not very high, but the situation is still not ideal for those who have returned and are exposed to the radiation 24 hours a day, 365 days a year,” the 76-year-old said. “No matter how much money has been put into this, it is evident that full reconstruction or recovery back to how lives were before the disaster is not possible,” Mr Ito added. “That is the reality of a nuclear disaster.” |
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Bavaria’s renewable capacity growing as nuclear plant shutdown boosts power imports
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Bavaria’s renewable capacity growing as nuclear plant shutdown boosts power imports, 21 Feb 2020, Benjamin Wehrmann, Clean Energy Wire
Power generation with solar panels and bioenergy plants has reached a new record level in Bavaria, the German state’s economy ministry has said. Final data for 2018 showed that solar power production grew by 4.5 percent that year to reach nearly 12 terawatt hours (TWh), while production with bioenergy reached 9.2 TWh, 0.2 percent more than in 2017. “The energy transition is right on our doorstep,” said Bavaria’s economy minister Hubert Aiwanger, adding that the looming solar power support cap had to be removed and new land designated for solar panel installation to ensure that renewables could continue to grow in the state. However, the shutdown of nuclear power plant Gundremmingen B and a particularly dry year in 2018, which substantially reduced hydropower production, meant that Bavaria had to import large volumes of electricity for the first time ever in that year. Gross power production dropped from nearly 85 TWh to just under 74 TWh between 2017 and 2018, meaning that the economic powerhouse state had to import 10 TWh to cover its demand, a situation “that has never existed before,” the ministry says. Aiwanger said the “power generation gap” would grow further once Bavaria’s two remaining nuclear plants go offline at the end of 2021 and 2022, respectively. “The figures show that we all need to pull together to ensure a sustainable energy supply,” Aiwanger said…….. https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/bavarias-renewable-capacity-growing-nuclear-plant-shutdown-boosts-power-imports |
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Correcting Anti-Renewable Energy Propaganda
Correcting Anti-Renewable Energy Propaganda, Clean Technica B1 By Georg Nitsche, 12 Feb 20, In 1989, pro-nuclear lobbyists claimed that wind power couldn’t even provide 1% of Germany’s electricity. A few years later, pro-nuclear lobbyists ran ads in German newspapers, claiming that renewables wouldn’t be able to meet 4% of German electricity demand.
After the renewable energy revolution took off, in 2015, the pro-nuclear power “Breakthrough Institute” published an article claiming solar would be limited to 10–20% and wind to 25–35% of a power system’s electricity.
In 2017, German (pro-nuclear power) economist Hans-Werner Sinn tweeted that more than 50% wind and solar would hardly be possible. And in 2018, Carnegie Science reported a study claiming that “wind and solar could meet most but not all U.S. electricity needs.” According to one of the authors, their research indicates that “huge amounts of storage” or natural gas would need to supplement solar and wind power.
From a pro-renewable perspective, this is encouraging. The claims about the limits of renewable energy have moved from “not even 1% of electricity” to “most but not all of the electricity.” And yet, the anti-renewables message has always been the same: renewables will lead to a dead end.
In order to underscore their point, anti-renewable energy propagandists now publish incorrect cost figures that claim a fully renewable electric grid would be unaffordable or way more expensive than other options, such as, you guessed it, nuclear power. Continue reading
Australia May Add Record Amount of Renewable Power in 2020,
Australia May Add Record Amount of Renewable Power in 2020, Bloomberg, By James Thornhill, January 21, 2020
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Corporate demand for clean electricity driving growth: Rystad
- Policy uncertainty seen undermining longer term expansion
Australia is set to add a record amount of renewable power in 2020, driven by growing corporate demand for clean electricity and to fill generation gaps created by the retirement of aging coal-fired plants.
New markets are expected to unlock growth as pilot hydrogen projects start and oil, gas and mining projects invest in off-grid renewables generation, according to Rystad Energy. The positive outlook would be a rebound for Australia’s clean energy developers after a sharp drop in investment in 2019.
“We expect the industry to bounce back in the second half of 2020,” Rystad said in a media release, citing projects with corporate power purchase agreements and the winners of government auction schemes that are scheduled to start construction this year.
Nearly 2 gigawatts of large-scale solar projects and 1.6 gigawatts of wind power are due to complete commissioning in the year ahead, up nearly 40% on 2019 levels. Wind and solar developers are also lining up to replace the Liddell coal plant in New South Wales, which is due to close by April 2023.
Still, developers may face headwinds over the longer term. The industry has already met the government’s 2020 target for renewable generation and there is no new target to replace it. Meanwhile, the profitability of projects located a long way from major demand centers has been hit by marginal loss factors — the amount of power lost along transmission lines.
Losing Momentum
Australia renewables investment fell 38% last year “While the outlook for the commissioning of new projects still looks solid in 2020, there is a risk that activity tails off in the years ahead as the impact of falling investment starts to feed through,” said BloombergNEF analyst Leonard Quong. AT TOP https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-21/australia-may-add-record-amount-of-renewable-power-in-2020
In Turkey, renewable energy rising, as nuclear partnership with Japan is scrapped
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Turkey, Japan scrap partnership in Sinop nuclear plant in Turkey’s north, Hurriyet Daily News, 20 Jan 2020, Turkey is reassessing its major partner for the country’s second nuclear plant in the Black Sea province of Sinop, Energy Minister Fatih Dönmez said on Jan. 19.In an interview with state-run Anadolu Agency, Dönmez said that the time schedule and pricing of the nuclear power plant in Sinop fell short of the ministry’s expectations after the results of feasibility studies, carried out by Japanese Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd., came out.
“We agreed with the Japanese side to not continue our cooperation regarding this matter,” Dönmez said…….. An intergovernmental agreement was signed between Turkey and Russia in May 2010 for Akkuyu NPP, the first nuclear plant of Turkey that will have four VVER-1200 power reactors with a total installed capacity of 4,800 megawatts. …… Share of local and renewable energy increases to 62 pct Dönmez also said Turkey saw an increase in the share of local and renewable resources for the country’s electricity production. Electricity production from local and renewables sources in 2019 amounted to 62 percent compared to 49 percent in 2018, a 13 percent increase, he further elaborated……… http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-japan-scrap-partnership-in-sinop-nuclear-plant-in-turkeys-north-151212 |
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New report: China soon to join countries where renewables are cheaper than coal
Oil Price 19th Jan 2020, In September of last year Oilprice reported an incredible milestone for renewable energy when solar and wind power became cheaper than coal in most of the world. Now, a new report released this week by Wood Mackenzie Power and Renewables has heralded another milestone: China will soon be added to that list of countries in which coal is no longer more economical than renewable energy.
Fukushima Japan Vows to Achieve 100% Renewable Energy Use in 20 Years
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Impelled by Reactor Meltdown, Fukushima Japan Vows to Achieve 100% Renewable Energy Use in 20 Years, https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/fukushima-moves-towards-100-percent-renewable-energy-production/ By Andy Corbley -Jan 11, 2020
Nine years ago, an earthquake and tsunami off the coast of Japan caused one of the most significant nuclear disasters in human history in the area around the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, where the resulting reactor meltdown led to the evacuation of 150,000 individuals.Now, the local government has vowed to restructure the grid of the north western prefecture to use entirely renewable energy sources by 2040. Fukushima is the third largest administrative district in the country, and uniquely includes a variety of energy resources like prime spots for solar and wind farms, and also opportunities for geothermal power as well. Working to achieve these ambitious goals, Fukushima Prefecture signed a memorandum of understanding in the field of renewables with the Ministry of Environment for the German state of North-Rhine Westphalia, the largest energy-producing state in Germany—and Europe as well—in August of 2017. North-Rhine Westphalia has doubled their renewable energy infrastructure over the last 15 years—growing it to deliver 9% of total energy production. Since 2012, however, Fukushima has tripled its renewable energy production, with solar, wind, water, thermal, and biofuel resources totaling 1,500 megawatts of electricity, delivering a contribution of nearly 18% of Japan’s total yearly energy consumption. Additionally, 300 billion yen ($2.75 billion) for the project has already been fronted by sponsors such as the state-owned Japan Development Bank and Mizuho Bank. The funding will be used to construct 11 solar farms and 10 wind farms over the next 4 years. The new projects also include biomass plants, geothermal stations, even fleets of sea-going windmills. The proposed new grid, spanning 80 kilometers, would reach the Tokyo metropolitan area and contribute 600 megawatts of electricity, replacing much of the power which, up until recently, the city had received from the pair of Fukushima atomic energy plants. Beyond moving away from its robust infrastructure and dependence on atomic energy, Japan is also the third largest importer of coal and natural gas, and a massive change in energy independence would help Japan reach its ambitious goals set forth in the recent UN climate change panel in Madrid last month. The country’s Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, irrespective of the Fukushima Prefecture’s own energy objectives, is targeting 24% total energy from renewables nationally by 2030. |
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Japan plans 100% renewable energy for Fukushima prefecture by 2040
Fukushima unveils plans to become renewable energy hub, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jan/05/fukushima-unveils-plans-to-become-renewable-energy-hub-japan
Japan aims to power region, scene of 2011 meltdown, with 100% renewable energy by 2040, Justin McCurry in Tokyo , 6 Jan 2020
Fukushima is planning to transform itself into a renewable energy hub, almost nine years after it became the scene of the world’s worst nuclear accident for a quarter of a century.
The prefecture in north-east Japan will forever be associated with the triple meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant on 11 March 2011, but in an ambitious project the local government has vowed to power the region with 100% renewable energy by 2040, compared with 40% today.
The 2011 accident, triggered by a powerful earthquake and tsunami, sent large quantities of radiation into the atmosphere and forced the evacuation of more than 150,000 residents.
The 300bn yen ($2.75bn) project, whose sponsors include the government-owned Development Bank of Japan and Mizuho Bank, will involve the construction of 11 solar and 10 wind farms on abandoned farmland and in mountainous areas by the end of March 2024, according to the Nikkei Asian Review.
A 80km grid will connect Fukushima’s power generation with the Tokyo metropolitan area, once heavily dependent on nuclear energy produced at the prefecture’s two atomic plants. When completed, the project will generate up to 600 megawatts of electricity, roughly two-thirds the output of an average nuclear power plant.
Despite the Fukushima disaster, the world’s worst nuclear accident since Chernobyl in 1986, Japan’s conservative government is pushing to restart idle reactors.
It wants nuclear power, which generated almost a third of the country’s power before Fukushima, to make up between 20% and 22% of its overall energy mix by 2030, drawing criticism from campaigners who say nuclear plants pose a danger given the country’s vulnerability to earthquakes and tsunami.
All of Japan’s 54 reactors were shut down after the Fukushima meltdown. Nine reactors are in operation today, having passed stringent safety checks introduced after the disaster.
Renewables accounted for 17.4% of Japan’s energy mix in 2018, according to the Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies, well below countries in Europe. The government iaims to increase this to between 22% and 24% by 2030 a target the prime minister, Shinzo Abe, has described as ambitious but which climate campaigners criticise as insufficient.
Abe insists nuclear energy will help Japan achieve its carbon dioxide emissions targets and reduce its dependence on imported gas and oil, but his recently appointed environment minister, Shinjiro Koizumi, has called for the country’s nuclear reactors to be scrapped to prevent a repeat of the Fukushima disaster.
“We will be doomed if we allow another nuclear accident to occur. We never know when we’ll have an earthquake,” Koizumi said when he joined Abe’s cabinet in September.
The government is unlikely to meet its target of 30 reactor restarts by 2030 given strong local opposition and legal challenges.
Japan faces mounting international criticism over its dependence on imported coal and natural gas. It received the “fossil of the day” award from the Climate Action Network at last month’s UN climate change conference in Madrid after its industry minister announced plans to continue using coal-fired power.
Japan is the third-biggest importer of coal after India and China, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Its megabanks have been urged to end their financing of coal-fired plants in Vietnam and other developing countries in Asia.
How Ontario can get out of nuclear power, and reduce carbon emissions
Ontario can phase out nuclear and avoid increased carbon emissions, The Conversation, January 6, 2020 MV Ramana, Simons Chair in Disarmament, Global and Human Security at the Liu Institute for Global Issues, University of British Columbia, Xiao Wei, MITACS Globalink Research Intern, University of British Columbia As wind and solar energy have become cheaper, they’ve become a more prominent and important way to generate clean electricity in most parts of the world.The Ontario government, on the other hand, is cancelling renewable energy projects at a reported cost of at least $230 million while reinforcing the province’s reliance on nuclear power via expensive reactor refurbishment plans.
As researchers who have examined the economics of electricity generation in Ontario and elsewhere, we argue that this decision is wasteful and ill-advised, and the unnecessary cost differential will rise further in the future.
One concern about renewables has been the intermittency of these energy sources. But studies have shown it’s feasible to have an all-renewable electric grid.
These feasibility studies, however, are always location specific. In that spirit, we have carried out detailed modelling and found that it’s possible to meet Ontario’s electricity demands throughout the year with just a combination of renewables, including hydropower, and storing electricity in batteries.
We also found that dealing with the intermittency of wind and solar energy by adding batteries would be more economical than refurbishing nuclear plants in the foreseeable future, well before the current refurbishment projects are completed.
That’s because of the expected decline in the cost of batteries used to store the electricity during the hours when the wind is blowing or the sun is shining in order to supply electricity during the periods when they aren’t. The cost of different kinds of battery technologies, such as lithium-ion or flow batteries, have come down rapidly in recent years.
Essential results
In all scenarios, the bulk of the demand was met by solar and wind power, with a lower fraction met by hydropower. Even in the scenarios with no batteries, less than 20 per cent of the electricity demand was met by nuclear power…….
In summary, our results show that for reasonable assumptions about future battery costs and the current price tag for solar and wind power, scenarios involving nuclear power are more than 20 per cent higher than the cheapest scenario involving only batteries, solar, wind and the current hydropower capacity. …
nuclear power isn’t needed to meet Ontario’s electricity needs. And the absence of nuclear power won’t have any impact on emissions in Ontario’s energy sector.https://theconversation.com/ontario-can-phase-out-nuclear-and-avoid-increased-carbon-emissions-128854?fbclid=IwAR20ANW_yAmpR7zZVw113hUp9bl7Xt2h0v1XiB1K815lFIKctZiaR8xB5Ew
The rise and rise of global offshore wind capacity
Renew Extra 4th Jan 2020, Dave Elliott: The International Energy Agency says global offshore wind capacity may increase 15-fold and attract around $1 trillion of cumulative investment by 2040, driven by falling costs, supportive government policies and some remarkable technological progress, such as larger turbines and floating foundations.
https://renewextraweekly.blogspot.com/2020/01/offshore-wind-and-pv-will-be-big-says.html
Egypt’s solar energy success
Reuters 17th Dec 2019, Near the southern Egyptian city of Aswan, a swathe of photovoltaic solarpanels spreads over an area of desert so large it is clearly visible from space. Designed to anchor a renewable energy sector by attracting foreign and domestic private-sector developers and financial backers, the plant now provides nearly 1.5 GW to Egypt’s national grid and has brought down the price of solar energy at a time when the government is phasing out electricity subsidies.
Renewables – Top 10 Utility Regulation Trends of 2019
Aligning utility performance with policy goals; Utilities planning for
electric transportation; DER integration and investments in a modern grid;
Energy efficiency, load-shifting and building decarbonization; Valuing DERs
for their contributions to the grid; Wildfire prevention and protection;
Customers making their own energy choices; Non-wires alternative
mechanisms.
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/top-10-utility-regulation-trends-of-2019
In France, over the next decade renewable energy is ‘on track to overtake nuclear’
 Renewables ‘on track to overtake nuclear’ in France https://www.powerengineeringint.com/2019/12/16/renewables-on-track-to-overtake-nuclear-in-france/ Kelvin Ross A new study claims that renewables are on track to overtake nuclear power as the dominant energy source in France in the next decade.The share of renewables in France will hit 42.9 per cent of the country’s power mix by 2023, up from 19.9 per cent in 2018, according to analytics company GlobalData.
And the research suggests that renewables will continue to rise as nuclear reactors come offline. The report examining France’s power outlook to 2030 reveals that in 2018 nuclear power dominated the capacity mix by 47.2 per cent, followed by renewables, hydropower and thermal power. In the non-hydro renewable energy mix, wind contributed 56.7 per cent followed by solar PV with 35.6. GlobalData analyst Piyali Das said that France “is aiming to boost the renewable energy sources through tender mechanism. Renewable power sources are expected to increase at a compound annual growth rate of 8.9 per cent between 2019 and 2030 with a net capacity addition of around 50 GW. “Installed capacity for onshore wind will double from its current levels of 15.1 GW by 2026, and to support the expansion the government has announced doubling of the renewable energy budget. Solar PV is not behind by much in terms of growth and will witness an addition of more than 24 GW during the same period.” Das said that in the long-term, the French government has decided to cut down its fossil fuel dependency and is replacing coal and oil power stations with gas-fired plants. The government also has wants to reduce nuclear generation to 50 per cent of net generation by 2035, with a plan to decommission around 14 reactors by 2035 and fill the gap with renewable sources. “To date the development of renewable energy is largely supported by public support mechanisms,” explained Das. “These mechanisms finance the difference between the remuneration of their production on the wholesale market and the purchasing price guaranteed by the state to the renewable producer. |
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China’s $2.5bn renewables investment in Inner Mongolia
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China’s nuclear power company plans $2.5bn renewables investment in Inner Mongolia http://www.globalconstructionreview.com/news/chinas-nuclear-power-company-plans-25bn-renewables/, 22 November 2019 | By GCR Staff
China General Nuclear Power Group (CGN) is preparing to invest $2.5bn in renewables generation capacity in its northern province of Inner Mongolia, including a 1GW solar facility and a 2GW wind farm, according to a report in PV Magazine. The investment aims to capitalise on the climate of the region, which combines strong and steady winds with up to 3,400 hours of sunshine a year. CGN was founded in 1994 to operate nuclear power plants, but has since built up a domestic portfolio of renewable assets, including 9.1GW of wind capacity and 1.7GW of solar. The wind turbines are to be installed near the city of Ulanchabu, which will also make the turbines. Administrative work will be carried out in the first half of next year with construction scheduled to begin in August and complete in 2021. The Inner Mongolia Solar Energy Industry Association says the transmission lines required to bring the electricity from the sparsely populated north have already been built. At the beginning of this year, the State Power Investment Corporation (Spic), one of China’s top five energy generators, announced plans to build a 6GW windfarm close to China’s border with Mongolia. Spic announced that is has received planning approval for its project from the Ulanqab Municipal Development of Inner Mongolia. If it goes ahead, it would install turbines across an area of 3,800 square kilometres, roughly the same size as the UK county of Suffolk, at a construction cost of about $6.8bn. |
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In Germany , renewables replace nuclear and lower emissions simultaneously
Renewables replace nuclear and lower emissions simultaneously Energy Transmission, by Craig Morris, 20 Nov 2019
A myth is haunting the English-speaking world: Germany allegedly shows that emissions rise because renewables can’t replace nuclear – and that France is right to stick with nuclear. What do the data show? Craig Morris reports
It’s not just trolls: Cambridge professors are saying it, and top US journalists are saying it, and a US presidential candidate told it to the New York Times:
“Germany initially set out to close all of its nuclear reactors by 2022, but as a result, they are now likely to miss their emissions reduction targets. And France is now considering options to extend the life of many of its older nuclear power plants.”
— US presidential candidate Marianne Williamson in the New York Times
What’s worse, US policymakers are saying it. Five US states now subsidize nuclear to keep reactors from closing, and it’s possible that all of them have done so based on this incorrect assumption. It happened years ago in New York State with explicit reference to German emissions allegedly rising because of the phase-out, it then happened in Illinois, and as one press report from Ohio put it this year when the new nuclear subsidy was announced:
The experience of Germany was repeatedly used as an example of what might happen in Ohio. Germany decommissioned its nuclear plants in favor of an all-renewable strategy. Electricity prices spiked and carbon pollution spiked, in part because of the ramping up of fossil-fuel plants to compensate for when wind and solar faltered.
“If the studies are correct, the Germans must not know how to do this,” Mr. Randazzo [chairman of the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio] said.
“If the studies are correct” indeed: So do Germany and France show that climate change requires nuclear, as Williamson says? Let’s start with France………..
France’s concern is theoretical: they didn’t actually close any reactors and try to replace the power with renewables. Rather, the French left nuclear on, and renewables hardly grew; solar (1.9%) and wind (5.1%) made up a mere 7.5% of French power supply in 2018. (In Germany, solar alone covered 7.7% of demand in 2018, with wind adding another 18.7% for a total of 26.4%). But in Germany, replacing nuclear with renewables isn’t just a postponed political ambition; it’s happening. So what do we know?
Germany emissions during the nuclear phaseout
In 2011, eight of Germany’s 17 reactors were closed. From 2010-2017, emissions in the power sector fell by more than 15%. For 2018, the power sector numbers are not yet in, but emissions from the energy sector fell by nearly two percentage points. And to date in 2019, renewables have nearly reached 50% of power supply. Germany now has some 210 TWh of non-hydro renewable power, far more than the record level of 171 TWh in 2001 for nuclear. Since 2010, renewable power has grown nearly twice as fast as nuclear shrank. Some nine tenths of it is wind and solar alone. Clearly, Germany shows that renewables can reduce emissions during a nuclear phaseout.
At this point, I hear objections. The first: “but Germany is going to miss its 2020 climate target!” Yes, it is expected to reach a 32% emissions reduction, not 40% relative to 1990 (French emissions fell by 15% from 1990-2017 in comparison, albeit from a much lower level thanks to nuclear). But the Germans don’t see the power sector as the main problem. As Deutsche Bank recently put it, “So far, Germany’s efforts… have focused on the electricity sector. However, attention is increasingly shifting towards the transport sector and its steadily rising carbon emissions.” Former Environmental Minister and Christian Democrat Klaus Töpfer recently worded the German consensus well: “We have the highest taxes on electricity although we have reduced emissions there the most.” That’s right: Germany has performed best in the sector where it has removed nuclear and worse in sectors where nuclear plays little or no role: mobility, agriculture, and heat.
The second objection is generally: “Germany would have lowered emissions even more if it had phased out coal, not nuclear.” That’s a fine thing to discuss, but it only moves us from a falsehood (“German phaseout raised emissions”) to revisionist history – not to facts. The revisionist historians act as though renewables would have been built anyway if nuclear remained online. As I wrote in my 50-page paper entitled Can reactors react (2018), the Germans argued a decade ago that renewables were unlikely to be built if nuclear stayed online.
What do the French and German cases show about how much renewable energy gets added when nuclear stays online? The French are also failing to add new nuclear as quickly as its own power company closes old reactors it wishes to keep on. From 2010-2018, wind and solar grew by 27.4 TWh in France, while nuclear shrank by 14.7 TWh (and demand stayed flat). During the same timeframe in Germany, nuclear shrank by 64.6 TWh – but solar and wind alone grew by 91.8 TWh.
The current French situation suggests that, if you remain committed to nuclear, nuclear power nonetheless shrinks; to make matters worse, the growth of renewables struggles to close the gap. Germany suggests that, if you stick with renewables and phase out nuclear, renewables growth outstrips the drop in nuclear nearly twofold, and you reduce emissions by 2 percentage points annually in the power sector. https://energytransition.org/2019/11/renewables-replace-nuclear-and-lower-emissions-simultaneously/
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