A small window of opportunity to stave off rapid global heating
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‘Blown away’: Safe climate niche closing fast, with billions at risk, https://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/blown-away-safe-climate-niche-closing-fast-with-billions-at-risk-20200504-p54pod.html By Peter Hannam, May 5, 2020 As much as one-third of the world’s population will be exposed to Sahara Desert-like heat within half a century if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise at the pace of recent years.Scientists from China, the US and Europe found that the narrow climate niche that has supported human society would shift more over the next 50 years than it had in the preceding 6000 years. As many as 3.5 billion people will be exposed to “near-unliveable” temperatures averaging 29 degrees through the year by 2070. Less than 1 per cent of the Earth’s surface now endures such heat. That heat compares with the narrow 11- to 15-degree range that has supported civilisation over the past six millennia, according to research published Tuesday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. “Absent climate mitigation or migration, a substantial part of humanity will be exposed to mean annual temperatures warmer than nearly anywhere today,” the paper said. Xu Chi, a researcher at China’s Nanjing University and one of the paper’s authors, said: “We were frankly blown away by our own initial results. As our findings were so striking, we took an extra year to carefully check all assumptions and computations.” “Clearly we will need a global approach to safeguard our children against the potentially enormous social tensions the projected change could invoke.” Among the most exposed nations will be India – where many people live in “already-hot places” – with as many as 1.2 billion people likely to be forced to move if population and warming trends continue. For Nigeria, the number exposed could be 485 million, according to a media release distributed along with the paper. The scenario used projected the total populations in India and Nigeria to reach 2.2 billion and 600 million, respectively, by 2070, Dr Xu told the Herald and The Age. In Australia, areas of Western Australia and the Northern Territory home to about 200,000 people will be at risk. The research extended current population and greenhouse gas emissions trends into the future, and excluded impacts from the coronavirus pandemic on both. The researchers also considered possible rainfall changed. “The global pattern of population distribution seems less constrained by precipitation – while there is also an optimum around 1000 mm [of rainfall a year ] – so we focused on temperature,” Dr Xu said. “Changes of precipitation regime would definitely have impacts, but such impacts together those of temperature change would be more complex to foresee.”
Compared with pre-industrial-era conditions, temperatures globally will be about 3 degrees hotter by 2070. But as land warms faster than the oceans, the rise for people on average will be about 7.5 degrees, the paper found. Should the world adopt strong emissions reductions – the so-called Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 – it would “substantially reduce the geographical shift in the niche of humans and would reduce the theoretically needed movement to about 1.5 billion people”, the paper said. Still, that number would account for about one in seven of the world’s population. “Each degree of temperature rise above the current baseline roughly corresponds to 1 billion humans left outside the temperature niche, absent migration,” it said.
The researchers added that upheavals among populations – and the ecosystems that support them – could happen well before 2070. “Migration inevitably causes tension, even now, when a relatively modest number of about 250 million people live outside their countries of birth.” Tim Lenton, director of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter and one of the paper’s authors, said: “The good news is that these impacts can be greatly reduced if humanity succeeds in curbing global warming.” Marten Scheffer, a professor at Wageningen University and an author of the report, said the response to the coronavirus should give cause for some optimism that climate change’s looming threats could also be tackled. “The COVID-19 response revealed that if a problem appears to be urgent and serious, humanity globally is able to act massively if needed, even if there are economic costs,” he told the Herald and The Age. “Perhaps this may serve to make it feel more doable to address global warming too. Our findings indicate that that would be worthwhile.” |
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Petersberg Climate Dialogue to be held virtually this year
Sustainable Recovery**
Livestream recording of “Financing Climate Ambition in the context of
COVID-19”. A sustained green, resilient recovery from COVID-19 requires
significant investments to scale and achieve economy-wide transformation,
particularly in developing and emerging markets. Delivering this
sustainable recovery and creating new opportunities for growth will involve
accelerating the transition towards a low-carbon, resilient future that is
already underway.
Dialogue has provided a forum for high-level political discussions,
focusing both on the international climate negotiations and on advancing
climate action on the ground.
will be held virtually for the first time, and will focus on climate
ambition in the context of a green, resilient recovery. See, in particular
Mark Carmey from 41.43 He asks “what can we do to drice climate finance
in support of the transition to a net zero economy?” A related question
is what will be the economics of a post-Covid world? The new economy will
require a massive reallocation of capital. It provides an opportunity to
require companies and sectors to have net zero transition plans. The aim of
his work on Cop-26 is to ensure that every financial decision takes climate
into account. 120 countries have committed to net zero. That means every
company, every sector, every pension fund in those countries should have a
net zero plan which it has disclosed. When countries are designing their
recovery strategies they would do well to use this new financial framework
that is centred around the transition to net zero because that will amplify
the effectiveness. Once the war against Covid in won our ambition should be
to build a planet fit for our grandchildren.
Climate Policy Initiative 29th April 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8sLyUMokSvI
Top regulator who steered banks’ revival after last crash has a new crisis
mission: ‘My green energy plan to spark the economy back to life’. With the
oil price at record lows, Lord Turner concedes that fossil fuels ‘are
suddenly going to look cheap’ as travel resumes – potentially making a
switch to cleaner energy less attractive. But he is adamant that investment
in green fuel would create jobs and give Britain’s post-coronavirus economy
a much-needed boost. For instance, a jobs cull in North Sea oil could be
offset by transferring workers with marine engineering skills to building
bases for offshore windfarms, he says. ‘North-west Europe is blessed with
huge amounts of offshore wind potential, and both the UK and the rest of
Europe should be planning for massive offshore wind developments in the
North Sea that can give us green electricity at a low price,’ he says.
‘It’s a huge strategic opportunity.’ When pressed on whether the Government
should bail out struggling companies, rather than letting some firms fail,
it’s the first time his smooth theorising is rattled. ‘I’m not getting into
the specifics of individual companies,’ he says testily. ‘But any company
that receives a bailout should have green targets attached.’
Daily Mail 2nd May 2020
Report warns on the threat of sea level rise to Sizewell nuclear plan
Sea level rise ‘could threaten nuclear power 
station’ planned for UK, report claims, Independent UK, EDF about to submit planning application for major development at Sizewell on Suffolk coast, Harry Cockburn, 1 May 20
Rising sea levels and coastal erosion could pose a threat to two nuclear reactors planned to be built on the low-lying Suffolk coast, according to local councils and analysis by an independent environmental group.
East Suffolk Council and Suffolk County Council have already lodged various concerns about French company EDF Energy’s plans for the new facilities at Sizewell C, and a new analysis by experts at the Nuclear Consulting Group suggests planned sea defences may be inadequate in future climate change scenarios.
EDF is reportedly about to submit its official planning application for the project, and has been working with Chinese state-owned nuclear company.
The Nuclear Consulting Group’s paper, written by structural engineer, Nick Scarr, suggests the Suffolk coast where the Sizewell development is planned, is inherently “unstable”, and that due to erosion by the sea the site could become an island before the station reaches the end of its active life, thereby risking a serious accident. Mr Scarr told the Climate News Network:
“Any sailor, or lifeboat crew, knows that east coast banks need respect — they have dynamic patterns, and even the latest charts cannot be accurate for long. “I was deeply concerned by EDF’s premise that there is micro-stability at the Sizewell site, which makes it suitable for new-build nuclear. It is true if you restrict analysis to recent historical
data, but it is false if you look at longer-term data and evidence-based climate science predictions…….. (subscribers only) https://www.independent.co.uk/independentpremium/nuclear-power-sea-rise-sizewell-c-edf-suffolk-a9492901.html
An Arctic island is warming SIX times faster than the global average
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Global warming: An Arctic island is warming SIX times faster than the global average, GLOBAL WARMING threatens the planet as a whole but parts of an island in the Arctic are warming six times faster than the global average, scientists have warned. Express UK By SEBASTIAN KETTLEY Apr 30, 2020 Polar researchers stationed in the southwest of the Arctic island of Spitsbergen have found a worrying warming trend in meteorological data spanning 40 years. Temperatures in parts of the island, which is part of the Svalbard archipelago between Norway and the North Pole, have risen six times higher than the global average. Scientists from the Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences (IGF PAN) made the worrying discovery during expeditions to the Polish Polar Station Hornsund. The scientists presented their findings in Earth System Science Data. Professor Marzena Osuch, study co-author and hydrologist, told the Polish Press Agency (PAP): “The average temperature in Hornsund between 1979 and 2018 rose by 1.14C per decade. “The change is more than six times higher than the global change for the same period.”……. https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1276239/Global-warming-Arctic-temperatures-Spitsbergen-warming-faster-climate-change |
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Climate change: lakes and rivers will become drier, increasingly infectious and toxic
Climate change: lakes and rivers will become drier, increasingly infectious and toxic, Stuff NZ, Olivia Wannan, Apr 30 2020
By dragging our feet on climate action, we increasingly condemn our beloved lakes and rivers to a future of salmonella contamination, algal blooms, species extinctions and drying out, a new report warns.
Our Freshwater 2020, produced by the Ministry for the Environment and Statistics NZ, is a stark reminder that the already-threatened health of our waterways rests on our ability to urgently shift away from fossil fuels.
Even if emissions stay at historically low levels, temperatures will continue to rise in the coming decades, due to the lag between releasing greenhouse gas and the effects on our atmosphere, seas and waterways.
As the climate warms, rain storms will intensify, snowfall will decrease, glaciers will melt, soils will dry out and the sea level will rise – each affecting our lakes and rivers.
In the east, regions such as Hawke’s Bay will see increasingly low waterways by the end of the century, says Ministry for the Environment departmental science advisor Dr Alison Collins.
In the west – particularly in the South Island – rivers and lake levels are expected to rise, potentially leading to flooding.
After extreme downpours, drinking water and swimming spots are at high risk of being contaminated with infectious tummy bugs such as salmonella and harmful strains of E.coli, she says. Northern and remote eastern communities with less-developed water supply systems are particularly vulnerable.
Toxic algal blooms will become more common, as warmer temperatures reduce the mixing between upper and lower levels of deep lakes, boosting nutrient levels at the surface and algal growth. Without the waters mixing, the lake bottom is also deprived of oxygen, which drives out animals such as crayfish (kōura) and mussels (kākahi).
Combined with pollution and habitat loss, climate change is likely to push some freshwater species – both native and introduced – to extinction, the report says. …… https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/121178883/climate-change-lakes-and-rivers-will-become-drier-increasingly-infectious-and-toxic
EDF’s planned Sizewell nuclear power station – vulnerable to sea level rise
Climate News Network 28th April 2020, Controversial plans by the French nuclear giant EDF to build two of its massive new reactors on the low-lying east coast of England are causingalarm: the shore is eroding and local people fear sea level rise could maroon the station on an island.
because they fear the proposed sea defences for the new station, Sizewell C, will be inadequate.
will be adequate.
of construction, 60 years of operation and then the time needed to decommission it.
https://climatenewsnetwork.net/sea-level-rise-threatens-uk-nuclear-reactor-plans/
International climate ministers meet to discuss green recovery post COVID-19
International climate ministers meet to discuss green recovery post COVID-19 https://www.miragenews.com/international-climate-ministers-meet-to-discuss-green-recovery-post-covid-19/ This week environment ministers from 30 countries will meet in a two-day (27 – 28 April) online conference to discuss how to organise a green economic recovery after the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic is over. They will also aim to agree on how to proceed with ambitious carbon reductions despite the postponement of this year’s UN Climate Change Conference (COP26).
The ‘Petersberg Climate Dialogue’ will be hosted by Svenja Schulze, Germany’s Federal Environment Minister and Alok Sharma, the UK Secretary for Business and Energy and designated President of COP26.
Helen Clarkson, CEO of The Climate Group, an international non-profit with a mission of accelerating climate action said:
“The impact of COVID-19 has been devastating. As the world seeks to address the longer-term impact of this crisis, there is an opportunity for governments to help rebuild society differently. A side effect of the reduced economic activity we are seeing is cleaner air and clearer skies – through positive international cooperation we can begin to understand how we keep those things without compromising on economic growth.
“We have received signals from our partners, including 300 of the world’s largest businesses, that their commitment to climate action overwhelmingly remains in spite of the challenging circumstances. Just last week, nine members of our global electric vehicles initiative EV100, including the likes of Ingka Group, Unilever and LeasePlan, called on the EU to retain 2020 CO2 targets for cars, vans and trucks.
“Electric vehicles and renewable, efficient energy are profitable, long term investments. We need these smart green stimulus policies to not just maintain momentum but rapidly ramp-up investment to another level, and help deliver the halving of emissions we need in this decade.”
Ukraine Continues Fighting Fires Near Defunct Chernobyl Nuclear Plant
Ukraine Continues Fighting Fires Near Defunct Chernobyl Nuclear Plant, Radio Free Europe, 27 Apr 20 KYIV — Firefighters in Ukraine continue to battle a series of fires near the defunct Chernobyl nuclear power plant nearly a month after they broke out.
The State Service for Emergency Situations said on April 27 that brigades were still working to extinguish fires in the Lubyanskiy, Paryshivskiy, Dytyatkivskiy, and Denysovytskiy forest districts in the Chernobyl exclusion zone.
“The main efforts are focused on the localization of two fire sites, smoldering stumps, wood segments, and peat-boggy soil,” the service said, adding that radiation in the area does not exceed permissible levels.
The fires began on April 3 in the western part of the uninhabited exclusion zone before spreading to nearby forests.
Ukrainian officials have said they have extinguished the fires several times, but new fires continue appearing in the area…… https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-continues-fighting-fires-near-defunct-chernobyl-nuclear-plant/30579563.html
Eleven of 12 hottest years have occurred since 2000, new climate report warns
Eleven of 12 hottest years have occurred since 2000, new climate report warns, Independent, Isabelle Gerretsen @izzygerretsen 23 Apr 20
Last year was the hottest year on record for Europe after scorching heatwaves led to record-breaking temperatures in February, June and July
Eleven out of the 12 hottest years to date have all occurred since 2000, according to a new report by the European Union’s climate monitoring service.
Last year was the hottest year on record for Europe after scorching heatwaves led to record-breaking temperatures in February, June and July, scientists from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (CS3) said in the annual European State of the Climate report.
“The number of days with high heat stress levels are increasing in both northern and southern Europe,” they said.
An intense heatwave at the end of July led to record melting of Greenland’s ice sheet and all-time records being broken in northern Scandinavia, the Copernicus report noted.
According to recent research, Greenland’s ice sheet and the polar ice caps are melting six times faster than they were in the 1990s. The high melt rate fits with the worst-case scenario outlined by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which states that sea levels will rise 17cm without sweeping reductions in greenhouse gas emissions…..
Concentrations of CO2 and methane in the atmosphere continue to increase. “It is only possible to find concentrations as high as they were in 2019 by going back millions of years in history,” the Copernicus scientists said.
Professor Martin Siegert, co-director of the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London, told The Independent that the current level of CO2 in the atmosphere is “unnaturally high”.
He said it should be 280 parts per million (ppm) but is currently 415ppm and could reach 1000ppm by the end of the century if CO2 emissions continue to rise at their current rate…… https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change-global-warming-hottest-years-on-record-a9477796.html
nuclear-news 