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For climate change action, nuclear is a poor choice

Many argue that NPPs are necessary to mitigate climate change, but only one stage out of the 14-stage nuclear fuel cycle is carbon free. Unless equipped with desalination facilities, reactors consume vast amounts of water, an increasingly-scarce resource in countries like Pakistan, which is predicted to completely run out of water by 2025. Nuclear waste must be stored and secured for tens of thousands of years, not to mention the environmental disasters caused by reactor meltdowns. There are other strategies to limit global temperature rise below two degrees, and the idea that countries should deploy all low-carbon technologies no matter the costs should not be used to support such a volatile industry

Why the Civil Nuclear Trap Is Part and Parcel of the Belt and Road Strategy
Civil nuclear energy presents grave pitfalls in terms of cost, innovation and security that BRI countries cannot and should not afford. The Diplomat   By Sam Reynolds July 05, 2018  The Larger Point

Although China will continue to promote the benevolent aspects of the BRI, countries along its corridors and elsewhere should not fall victim to the civil nuclear trap. Nuclear energy is too costly, too time-consuming and too risky, especially in light of better alternatives. Instead, developing countries should lead the way towards a secure, low-carbon, low-cost energy future without NPPs.

Nuclear advocates argue correctly that nuclear has comparable levelized costs to solar photovoltaics (PV). The irony is that projects regularly go over budget and costs can actually increase the more nuclear experience a country has, contradicting the learning curve phenomenon. Although the French nuclear program was incredibly successful, it demonstrated “negative learning,” wherein costs actually increased for additional projects. (Solar PV and wind costs decreased the fastest with every doubling of experience.)

Therefore, innovations and experience in nuclear technology might not lead to cost reductions. Continue reading →

July 6, 2018 Posted by | China, climate change | Leave a comment

A week of unprecedented heat records across the planet

All-time heat records have been set all over the world during the past week, https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/environment/climate-change/all-time-heat-records-have-been-set-all-over-the-world-during-the-past-week-20180705-p4zply.htmlBy Jason Samenow

Washington: From the normally mild summers of Ireland, Scotland and Canada to the scorching Middle East, numerous locations in the Northern Hemisphere have witnessed their hottest weather ever recorded over the past week.

Large areas of heat pressure or heat domes scattered around the hemisphere led to the sweltering temperatures. No single record, in isolation, can be attributed to global warming. But collectively, these heat records are consistent with the kind of extremes we expect to see increase in a warming world.

Let’s take a tour around the world of the recent hot-weather milestones.

North America

A massive and intense heat dome has consumed the eastern two-thirds of the United States and south-east Canada since late last week. It’s not only been hot but also exceptionally humid. Some of the notable all-time records include:  Denver tied its all-time high-temperature record of 40.5 degrees Celsius on Thursday; Burlington, Vermont, set its all-time warmest minimum temperature ever recorded of 26.6 degrees on Monday; Montreal recorded its highest temperature in recorded history, dating back 147 years, of 36.6 degrees on Monday. The city also posted its most extreme midnight combination of heat and humidity.

Excessive heat torched the British Isles late last week. The stifling heat caused roads and roofs to buckle, the Weather Channel reported, and resulted in multiple record highs in Scotland, Ireland, and Northern Ireland.

Eurasia

A large dome of high pressure, or heat dome, has persistently sat on top of Eurasia over the past week, resulting in some extraordinarily hot weather.

In Tbilisi, Georgia, on Wednesday, the capital city soared to 40.5 degrees, its all-time record, while Yerevan, Armenia, temperatures soared to 42 degrees, a record high for July and tying its record for any month.

Several locations in southern Russia topped or matched their warmest June temperatures on record on Thursday.

Middle East

Qurayat, Oman, posted the world’s hottest minimum temperature ever recorded on June 28: 42.6 degrees.

These various records add to a growing list of heat milestones set over the past 15 months that are part and parcel of a planet that is trending hotter as greenhouse gas concentrations increase because of human activity.

In late May 2017, the western town of Turbat in Pakistan hit 53.5 degrees, tying the all-time highest temperature in the country and the world-record temperature for May.

It followed the hottest temperature ever observed on Earth during the month of April — 50.2 degrees also in Pakistan.

Washington Post

July 6, 2018 Posted by | 2 WORLD, climate change | Leave a comment

Climate change brings collapse of ecosystems in Australia

The Conversation 4 July 18 Rebecca Harris, Climate Research Fellow, University of Tasmania, David Bowman , Professor, Environmental Change Biology, University of Tasmania, Linda Beaumont, Senior Lecturer, Macquarie University, 

To the chagrin of the tourist industry, the Great Barrier Reef has become a notorious victim of climate change. But it is not the only Australian ecosystem on the brink of collapse.

Our research, recently published in Nature Climate Change, describes a series of sudden and catastrophic ecosystem shifts that have occurred recently across Australia.

These changes, caused by the combined stress of gradual climate change and extreme weather events, are overwhelming ecosystems’ natural resilience.

Variable climate

Australia is one of the most climatically variable places in the world. It is filled with ecosystems adapted to this variability, whether that means living in scorching heat, bitter cold or a climate that cycles between the two.

Despite land clearing, mining and other activities that transform the natural landscape, Australia retains large tracts of near-pristine natural systems.

Many of these regions are iconic, sustaining tourism and outdoor activities and providing valuable ecological services – particularly fisheries and water resources. Yet even here, the combined stress of gradual climate change and extreme weather events is causing environmental changes. These changes are often abrupt and potentially irreversible.

They include wildlife and plant population collapses, the local extinction of native species, the loss of ancient, highly diverse ecosystems and the creation of previously unseen ecological communities invaded by new plants and animals.

Australia’s average temperature (both air and sea) has increased by about 1°C since the start of the 19th century. We are now experiencing longer, more frequent and more intense heatwaves, more extreme fire weather and longer fire seasons, changes to rainfall seasonality, and droughts that may be historically unusual.

The interval between these events has also shortened, which means even ecosystems adapted to extremes and high natural variability are struggling.

As climate change accelerates, the magnitude and frequency of extreme events is expected to continue increasing.

What is ecosystem collapse?

Gradual climate change can be thought of as an ongoing “press”, on which the “pulse” of extreme events are now superimposed. In combination, “presses” and “pulses” are more likely to push systems to collapse.

We identified ecosystems across Australia that have recently experienced catastrophic changes, including:

not all examples can be directly linked to a single weather event, or a series of events. These are most likely caused by multiple interactingclimate “presses” and “pulses”. It’s worth remembering that extreme biological responses do not always manifest as an impact on the dominant species. Cascading interactions can trigger ecosystem-wide responses to extreme events.

The cost of intervention

Once an ecosystem goes into steep decline – with key species dying out and crucial interactions no longer possible – there are important consequences.

Apart from their intrinsic worth, these areas can no longer supply fish, forest resources, or carbon storage. It may affect livestock and pasture quality, tourism, and water quality and supply.

Unfortunately, the sheer number of variables – between the species and terrain in each area, and the timing and severity of extreme weather events – makes predicting ecosystem collapses essentially impossible.

Targeted interventions, like the assisted recolonisation of plants and animals, reseeding an area that’s suffered forest loss, and actively protecting vulnerable ecosystems from destructive bushfires, may prevent a system from collapsing, but at considerable financial cost. And as the interval between extreme events shorten, the chance of a successful intervention falls.

Critically, intervention plans may need to be decided upon quickly, without full understanding of the ecological and evolutionary consequences.

How much are we willing to risk failure and any unintended consequences of active intervention? How much do we value “natural” and “pristine” ecosystems that will increasingly depend on protection from threats like invasive plants and more frequent fires?

We suspect the pervasive effects of the press and pulse of climate change means that, increasingly, the risks of doing nothing may outweigh the risks of acting.

The beginning of this century has seen an unprecedented number of widespread, catastrophic biological transformations in response to extreme weather events.

This constellation of unpredictable and sudden biological responses suggests that many seemingly healthy and undisturbed ecosystems are at a tipping point https://theconversation.com/ecosystems-across-australia-are-collapsing-

July 6, 2018 Posted by | AUSTRALIA, climate change | Leave a comment

Tense political situation of mass migration – climate change compound s this problem

A Warming World Creates Desperate People, NYT, By Lauren Markham, Ms. Markham is a freelance reporter who writes about migration and the environment. June 29, 2018 Last year I traveled to southern Guatemala, the source of one of the largest migrations of unauthorized immigrants to the United States in recent years. It’s clear why people are leaving: Guatemala is a country rife with political conflict, endemic racism against indigenous people, poverty and, increasingly, gang violence.

But there’s another, lesser-known dimension to this migration. Drought and rising temperatures in Guatemala are making it harder for people to make a living or even survive, thus compounding the already tenuous political situation for the 16.6 million people who live there.

……….. Long before the unconscionable family-separation catastrophe at our southern border, President Trump had made the battle against illegal immigrants the rallying cry of his campaign and administration. He wants to lock up more immigrants — including toddlers — as a deterrent while casting all new unauthorized immigrants as potential, if not probable, violent criminals. Simultaneously, the president’s team has taken on the environment, doing nearly everything it can to walk back decades of regulation intended to protect our air, water and land. Last June, Mr. Trump pulled out of the Paris climate accord. Meanwhile, Scott Pruitt, the administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, is doggedly eviscerating the agency he runs.

Today, according to global relief agencies, over 68 million people worldwide have been forced to flee their homes, often because of war, poverty and political persecution. As a writer, I focus largely on issues of forced migration. The hundreds of migrants I’ve interviewed in the past few years — whether from Gambia, Pakistan, El Salvador, Guatemala, Yemen or Eritrea — are most often leaving because of some acute political problem at home. But I’ve also noticed something else in my years of reporting. If you talk to these migrants long enough, you’ll hear about another, more subtle but still profound dimension to the problems they are leaving behind: environmental degradation or climate change.

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees estimates that since 2008, 22.5 million people have been displaced by climate-related or extreme weather events. This includes tragedies like the widespread famine in Darfur, monsoons and flooding in Bangladesh and the catastrophic hurricane in Puerto Rico. The more out of whack our climate becomes, the more people up and leave their homes. As our world heats up and sea levels rise, the problem of forced migration around the world is projected to become far worse.

And in refusing to take climate change or responsibility for our planet seriously, the Trump administration is encouraging the conditions that will increase unauthorized migrations to the United States and elsewhere.

…….. Many things are exacerbating the effects of the drought in Central America, including pervasive deforestation and farmers overtaxing their land. But according to Climatelinks, a project of the United States Agency for International Development, the average temperature in El Salvador has risen 2.34 degrees Fahrenheit since the 1950s, and droughts have become longer and more intense. The sea has risen by three inches since the 1950s, and is projected to rise seven more by 2050. Between 2000 and 2009, 39 hurricanes hit El Salvador, compared with 15 in the 1980s. This, too, is predicted to get worse………..

Like El Salvador, Gambia, Bangladesh and Guatemala, Ethiopia has been hit hard by climate change, though it is not even in the top 100 emitters of greenhouse gases. But the problem with climate change, of course, is that it is a problem that crosses borders.

The anti-immigrant rhetoric of the Trump administration has made for elaborate and bombastic theater — but with real, and sometimes deadly, human consequences (see again the children separated from their parents at the border). But Mr. Trump means what he says: He wants immigration from poor countries to stop. He sees the problems in those countries as theirs, not ours — never mind the centuries of catastrophic foreign intervention in places like El Salvador and the rest of the Americas, the Arab world and sub-Saharan Africa, or the growing menace of the changing climate.

If President Trump really wants to curb “illegal” migration to the United States for the long haul, he’d better get serious about climate change. The Trump administration can continue to eviscerate the E.P.A. and thumb its nose at global efforts to protect the climate. Or he can work responsibly to try to curb international migration by addressing the challenges of a warming planet.

He can’t have it both ways. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/29/opinion/sunday/immigration-climate-change-trump.html?action=click%26pgtype=Homepage%26clickSource=story-heading%26module=opinion-c-col-right-region%26region=opinion-c-col-right-region%26WT.nav=opinion-c-col-right-region&utm_source=EHN&utm_campaign=efac197811-Science_saturday&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_8573f35474-efac197811-99056605

July 2, 2018 Posted by | 2 WORLD, climate change, politics international | Leave a comment

Arctic climate change: The northern Barents Sea has warmed 1.5 degrees Celsius in just 18 years

Huge part of Arctic ocean is shifting to an Atlantic climate, study finds
The northern Barents Sea has warmed 1.5 degrees Celsius in just 18 years, Independent, Chris Mooney 28 June 1

June 29, 2018 Posted by | ARCTIC, climate change | Leave a comment

South Asia will cop huge climate change effects over the coming decades

Half of South Asia living in vulnerable climate ‘hotspots’: World Bank https://www.reuters.com/article/us-south-asia-climatechange-worldbank/half-of-south-asia-living-in-vulnerable-climate-hotspots-world-bank-idUSKBN1JO2AV, Malini Menon– 29 June 18 

NEW DELHI (Reuters) – Changes in temperature and rainfall will impact almost half of South Asia in the coming decades, reducing economic growth in one of the world’s poorest regions, the World Bank said.

A World Bank report released on Thursday analyses two scenarios – “climate sensitive”, based on collective action by nations to limit greenhouse gas emissions, and “carbon intensive”, which assumes no action on climate change.

The report combines future changes in temperature and rainfall with household survey data linking living standards to weather conditions for the first time.

More than 800 million people now live in areas predicted to become moderate-to-severe “hotspots”, or affected areas, by 2050 under the carbon intensive scenario, with India accounting for almost three quarters of them, the report said.

Moderate hotspots are areas where projected consumption spending declines by 4-8 percent and severe ones are where the drop exceeds 8 percent.

“There seems to be some kind of correlation between climate hotspots and water stressed areas,” Muthukumara Mani, a World Bank economist, said.

The World Bank’s expectation of about half of India living in moderately or severely-affected areas by 2050 tallies with a federal think tank’s report two weeks ago. This warned that 600 million Indians could suffer high to extreme water stress as the country faces the worst long-term water crisis in its history.

Rising temperature and changing monsoon rainfall patterns from climate change could cost India 2.8 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) and depress the living standards of one in every two Indians by 2050, the World Bank report said.

June 29, 2018 Posted by | ASIA, climate change | Leave a comment

What happened last time it was as warm as it’s going to get later this century?

Kids today will be grandparents when most climate projections end—does the past have more hints? Ars Technica  HOWARD LEE – 

“What’s past is prologue”- Shakespeare’s The Tempest.

The year 2100 stands like a line of checkered flags at the climate change finish line, as if all our goals expire then. But like the warning etched on a car mirror: it’s closer than it appears. Kids born today will be grandparents when most climate projections end.

And yet, the climate won’t stop changing in 2100. Even if we succeed in limiting warming this century to 2ºC, we’ll have CO2 at around 500 parts per million. That’s a level not seen on this planet since the Middle Miocene, 16 million years ago, when our ancestors were apes. Temperatures then were about 5 to 8ºC warmer not 2º, and sea levels were some 40 meters (130 feet) or more higher, not the 1.5 feet (half a meter) anticipated at the end of this century by the 2013 IPCC report.

Why is there a yawning gap between end-century projections and what happened in Earth’s past? Are past climates telling us we’re missing something?

Time

One big reason for the gap is simple: time.

Earth takes time to respond to changes in greenhouse gases. Some changes happen within years, while others take generations to reach a new equilibrium. Ice sheets melting, permafrost thawing, deep ocean warming, peat formation, and reorganizations of vegetation take centuries to millennia.

These slow responses are typically not included in climate models. That’s partly because of the computing time they would take to calculate, partly because we’re naturally focused on what we can expect over the next few decades, and partly because those processes are uncertain. And even though climate models have been successful at predicting climate change observed so far, uncertainties remain for even some fast responses, like clouds or the amplification of warming at the poles.

Earth’s past, on the other hand, shows us how its climate actually changed, integrating the full spectrum of our planet’s fast and slow responses. During past climate changes when Earth had ice sheets (like today) it typically warmed by around 5ºC to 6ºC for each doubling of CO2 levels, with the process taking about a millennium. That’s roughly double the “Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity” (ECS) values used in climate model projections for 2100, which are calculated mainly from historical observations…….https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/06/are-past-climates-telling-us-were-missing-something/

June 29, 2018 Posted by | 2 WORLD, climate change | Leave a comment

Wildfire danger s are increasing, due to climate change

How climate change is increasing the risk of wildfires, The Conversation,  Fabrizio Manco, Senior Lecturer in GIS and Ecology, Anglia Ruskin University, 

The army has been called in to help firefighters deal with a huge wildfire on Saddleworth Moor, Greater Manchester, where residents have been forced to evacuate. Wildfires are also blazing across Northern Californiawhile the issue of bushfires in Australia calls for constant vigilance from the emergency services there. These fires are becoming more common and one of the reasons for this is climate change.

Warmer temperatures in the summer and associated drier conditions desiccate plant materials and create more vegetation litter, providing more fuel for these fires. Several studies have linked the increase of wildfires with climate change in various parts of the world, such as North America and Southern Europe.

For example, a study in California from 2004 found that the warmer and windier weather (brought about by an atmosphere with higher levels of CO2) produced fires that burned more intensely and spread faster in most locations. Despite enhanced firefighting efforts, the number of escaped fires (those exceeding initial containment limits) increased by 51% in the south San Francisco Bay area, 125% in the Sierra Nevada.

It has also been demonstrated that increases in rainfall during winter and spring – which are also known consequences of climate change – provide more favourable conditions for plant growth and therefore more potential fuel for the fires later in the summer.

Even though climate change increases the vulnerability of dry environments to wildfires, a source of ignition is still required. In the UK, it can be natural (such as bolts of lightning) or caused by man either deliberately or accidentally. Various studies have shown that the number of recreational visits to “risky” sites, such as the English Peak District, increase the occurrence of wildfire.

Despite its destructive power, fire is an important ecological process that can benefit several endangered species by maintaining their habitat. It is an important tool in the management and preservation of heathlands and moorlands in the UK when used appropriately and in a controlled way.

But climate change and human activities increase the vulnerability of those habitats to uncontrolled wildfires and higher population densities near these areas will potentially put more people and houses at risk. In addition to the global battle against climate change, appropriate management procedures are necessary to maintain those habitats and ensure the risks of uncontrolled fires are minimised and the potential spread of them reduced. https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-is-increasing-the-risk-of-wildfires-99056

 

June 29, 2018 Posted by | 2 WORLD, climate change | Leave a comment

Climate change linked to potential population decline in bees

Study finds that warmer temperatures push bees to their physiological limits, may drive local extinction, Science daily 

Date:
June 28, 2018
Source:
Northwestern University
Summary:
A new study has found that climate change may drive local extinction of mason bees in Arizona and other naturally warm climates.

A new study from Northwestern University and the Chicago Botanic Garden has found that climate change may drive local extinction of mason bees in Arizona and other naturally warm climates.

In a two-year, in situ field experiment that altered the temperature of the bees’ nests to simulate a warmer, future climate, 35 percent of bees died in the first year and 70 percent died in the second year. This is compared to a 1-2 percent mortality rate in the control group.

“The projected temperatures appear to be pushing this species up against its physiological limits,” said Northwestern’s Paul CaraDonna, who led the research. “This is evidence that we might see local extinction in the warmer parts of this species’ range, which is pretty sobering.”

The study will publish online on Thursday, June 28 in the British Ecological Society’s journal Functional Ecology. CaraDonna is an assistant professor of instruction in the Program in Plant Biology and Conservation in Northwestern’s Weinberg College of Arts and Sciences and a research scientist at the Chicago Botanic Gardens…….https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/06/180628105009.htm

June 29, 2018 Posted by | 2 WORLD, climate change | Leave a comment

With climate change, it’s unwise for UK to build Hinkley Point C, as sea levels are rising

Weatherwatch: the nuclear option and rising levels of anxiety   Danger of coastal flooding might make sensible people think twice about building houses in vulnerable places, let alone nuclear power stations, Guardian,  https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/jun/22/weatherwatch-the-nuclear-option-and-rising-levels-of-anxiety  Paul Brown,

Back in 2012 a document obtained under the Freedom of Information Act showed that the Environment Agency was warning that 12 out of the UK’s 19 nuclear sites were in danger of coastal flooding and erosion because of climate change. Among them was Hinkley Point in Somerset, one of the eight proposed sites for new nuclear power stations around the coasts.That was before the increasing volume of melting of the Greenland ice capwas properly understood and when most experts thought there was no net melting in the Antarctic.

Melting ice sheets are hastening sea level rise, satellite data confirms
Satellite measurements released earlier this month and other recent observations of how warmer seas are eroding ice shelves and glaciers have removed uncertainty.

Estimates of sea level rise in the next 50 years have gone up from less than 30cm to more than a metre, well within the lifespan of the nuclear stations the UK government has planned.

The extra coastal erosion and threat of storm surges that this increase in sea level will bring to our shores might make sensible people think twice about siting any buildings in vulnerable places, let alone nuclear power stations.

So far, however, the government has yet to respond and is pressing ahead with its plans.

June 25, 2018 Posted by | climate change, politics, UK | 1 Comment

The world needs now to recognise climate refugees

TIM MCDONNELL , This month, diplomats from around the world met in New York and Geneva to hash out a pair of new global agreements that aim to lay out new guidelines for how countries should deal with an unprecedented surge in the number of displaced people, which has now reached 65.6 million worldwide.

But there’s one emerging category that seems to be getting short shrift in the conversation: so-called “climate refugees,” who currently lack any formal definition, recognition or protection under international law even as the scope of their predicament becomes more clear.

Since 2008, an average of 24 million people have been displaced by catastrophic weather disasters each year. As climate change worsens storms and droughts, climate scientists and migration experts expect that number to rise.

Meanwhile, climate impacts that unravel over time, like desert expansion and sea level rise, are also forcing people from their homes: A World Bank report in March projects that within three of the most vulnerable regions — sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Latin America — 143 million people could be displaced by these impacts by 2050.

In Bangladesh, hundreds of thousands of people are routinely uprooted by coastal flooding, many making a treacherous journey to the slums of the capital, Dhaka. In West Africa, the almost total disappearance of Lake Chad because of desertification has empowered terrorists and forced more than four million people into camps.

It’s a problem in the United States as well. An estimated 2,300 Puerto Rican familiesdisplaced by Hurricane Maria are still looking for permanent housing, while government officials have spent years working to preemptively relocate more than a dozen small coastal communities in Alaska and Louisiana that are disappearing into the rising sea.

A December study by Columbia University climate researchers in the peer-reviewed journal Science projected that if global temperatures continue their upward march, applications for asylum to the European Union could increase 28 percent to nearly 450,000 per year by 2100.

June 23, 2018 Posted by | 2 WORLD, climate change | Leave a comment

Leaked UN draft report – world is on track to exceed 1.5C of warming

Guardian 15th June 2018 The world is on track to exceed 1.5C of warming unless countries rapidly implement “far-reaching” actions to reduce carbon emissions, according to a draft UN report leaked to Reuters. The final draft report from the UN’s intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) was due for publication in
October. It is the guiding scientific document for what countries must do to combat climate change.

Human-induced warming would exceed 1.5C by about 2040 if emissions continued at their present rate, the report found, but countries could keep warming below that level if they made “rapid and far reaching” changes.

Under the 2015 Paris climate agreement, almost 200 countries signed up to limit global temperature rises to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5C. Climate scientist and Climate Analytics director Bill Hare said the draft report showed with greater clarity how much faster countries needed to move towards decarbonisation under various temperature situations and that the impacts of climate change greatly increased between 1.5C and 2C of warming.

Necessary actions include making the transition to renewable energy, powering the transport sector with zero carbon electricity, improving agricultural management and stopping deforestation.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/15/leaked-un-draft-report-warns-of-urgent-need-to-cut-global-warming

June 15, 2018 Posted by | 2 WORLD, climate change | 2 Comments

Scientists predict millions of climate refugees – but where will they go?

Universal migration predicts human movements under climate change, Physics World, 12 Jun 2018 

Climate change is expected to displace millions of people through impacts like sea level rise, crop failures, and more frequent extreme weather. Yet scientists still cannot predict where these expected climate-induced migrants are likely to go in the coming decades.

A new study, published today in Environmental Research Letters, seeks to address this need by incorporating climate impacts into a universal model of human mobility.

To demonstrate the efficacy of the new approach, the study focused on the case of sea level rise (SLR) and human migration in Bangladesh, where the authors estimate that more than two million Bangladeshis may be displaced from their homes by 2100 because of rising sea levels alone.

The study, led by Columbia University, New York, used a probabilistic model combined with population, geographic, and climatic data to predict the sources, destinations, and flux of potential migrants caused by sea level rise.

Lead author Dr Kyle Davis, from Columbia University, explained: “More than 40 per cent of Bangladesh’s population is especially vulnerable to future sea level rise, as they live in low-lying areas that are often exposed to extreme natural events.

“However, SLR is a very different type of migration driver from short-lived natural hazards, in that it will make certain areas permanently uninhabitable.”

The team’s results using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios showed that mean SLR will cause population displacements in 33 per cent of Bangladesh’s districts, and 53 per cent under more intensive conditions. By mid-century, they estimated nearly 900,000 people are likely to migrate because of direct inundation from mean SLR alone.

Under the most extreme scenario, of up to 2 metre mean SLR, the number of migrants driven by direct inundation could rise to as many as 2.1 million people by the year 2100. For all RCP scenarios, five districts – Barisal, Chandpur, Munshiganj, Narayanganj, and Shariatpur – are the source for 59 per cent of all migrants.

Their analysis considered mean SLR without normal high tides, so the results – both in terms of inundated area and displaced population – are conservative.

The researchers also estimated the extra jobs, housing and food needed to accommodate these migrants at their destinations. They found that to cope with the numbers likely to be displaced by 2050, 600,000 additional jobs, 200,000 residences and 784 billion food calories will be needed.

These results have clear implications for the places that are likely to receive incoming migrants…….https://physicsworld.com/a/universal-migration-predicts-human-movements-under-climate-change/

June 13, 2018 Posted by | ASIA, climate change | Leave a comment

Faster global warming predicted, with new Antarctic study

Climate Central   By Mikayla Mace, Arizona Daily Star  10 June 18

A group of scientists, including one from the University of Arizona, has new findings suggesting Antarctica’s Southern Ocean — long known to play an integral role in climate change — may not be absorbing as much pollution as previously thought.

To reach their contradictory conclusion, the team used state-of-the-art sensors to collect more data on the Southern Ocean than ever before, including during the perilous winter months that previously made the research difficult if not impossible.The old belief was the ocean pulled about 13 percent of the world’s carbon dioxide — a greenhouse gas that contributes to climate change — out of the atmosphere, helping put the brakes on rising global temperatures.

Some oceanographers suspect that less CO2 is being absorbed because the westerlies — the winds that ring the southernmost continent — are tightening like a noose. As these powerful winds get more concentrated, they dig at the water, pushing it out and away.

Water from below rises to take its place, dragging up decaying muck made of carbon from deep in the ocean that can then either be released into the atmosphere in the form of CO2 or slow the rate that CO2 is absorbed by the water. Either way, it’s not good.

The Southern Ocean is far away, but “for Arizona, this is what matters,” said Joellen Russell, the University of Arizona oceanographer and co-author on the paper revealing these findings. “We don’t see the Southern Ocean, and yet it has reached out the icy hand.”

Oceans, rivers, lakes and vegetation can moderate extreme changes in temperature. Southern Arizona has no such buffers, leaving us vulnerable as average global temperatures march upward.

“Everybody asks, ‘Why are you at the UA?’” Russell said about studying the Southern Ocean from the desert at the University of Arizona. She said the research is important to Arizona and the university supports her work.

…….. scientists know less about the Southern Ocean than the rest of the world’s oceans. What they do know is mostly limited to surface CO2 levels in the summer, when it’s safer to take measurements by ships with researchers aboard. Shipboard sensors that directly measure CO2 are the accepted scientific standard in these types of studies.

Understanding CO2 levels within the air, land and sea and how it is exchanged between the three is necessary for making more accurate future climate predictions.

To fill the gap in knowledge, Russell and her team have deployed an array of cylindrical tanks, called floats, that collect data on carbon and more in the Southern Ocean year-round. Russell leads the modeling component of this project called Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling, or SOCCOM.

The floats drift 1,000 meters below the surface. Every 10 days, they plunge a thousand meters deeper, then bob up to the surface before returning to their original depth.

For three years, 35 floats equipped with state-of-the-art sensors the size of a coffee cup have been collecting data along the way and beaming it back to the researchers, like Russell in Tucson. Within hours, the data is freely available online.

They measure ocean acidity, or pH, and other metrics to understand the biogeochemistry of the elusive ocean, but not without controversy.

Making a splash

Alison Gray, an oceanographer at the University of Washington, is the lead author on the study. She said there are two reasons the study may contradict what has previously been thought of about the Southern Ocean: The lack of winter-time observations at the ocean by other researchers and the fact that ocean carbon levels might vary throughout the year.

So while SOCCOM is making it possible to get more data than ever before, others question her nontraditional methods. ………http://www.climatecentral.org/news/antarctic-ocean-discovery-warns-of-faster-global-warming-21865

June 13, 2018 Posted by | ANTARCTICA, climate change, oceans | Leave a comment

President Trump’s conference wrecking strategy on climate action, at G7 meeting in Canada

“CANADA, FRANCE, GERMANY, ITALY, JAPAN THE UK AND THE EUROPEAN UNIONREAFFIRM THEIR STRONG COMMITMENT TO IMPLEMENT THE PARIS AGREEMENT, THROUGH AMBITIOUS CLIMATE ACTION”

“PRESIDENT TRUMP’S WRECKING BALL APPROACH TO INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMACY LEFT HIM UTTERLY ISOLATED AT THE G7 SUMMIT,”

Six of the G7 Commit to Climate Action. Trump Wouldn’t Even Join Conversation.  https://insideclimatenews.org/news/10062018/g7-summit-climate-change-communique-trump-allies-estranged-germany-france-canada

Trump skipped the formal climate discussions, had the U.S. negotiators promote fossil fuels instead, and then renounced the group’s official communique. BY STAFF, INSIDECLIMATE NEWS JUN 10, 2018  

President Donald Trump’s disdain for action on climate change, along with his other demands and behavior, left the United States estranged from its closest allies following the weekend summit of the Group of Seven major industrial democracies.

Trump skipped the G7’s formal discussions on the global warming crisis. And in the summit’s communique, the United States refused to join in common statements by the other six nations reaffirming their commitment to the Paris climate agreement, which he wants to abandon. In turn, none of them signed onto unilateral U.S. language pushing development of fossil fuels. And in the end, Trump renounced the whole communique in a Twitter tirade.

The governments of France and Germany said afterward that they and the European Union stood by the communique.

“Let’s be serious and worthy of our people,” the French presidency said in a statement quoted by AFP. “International co-operation cannot be dictated by fits of anger and throwaway remarks.”

“WE HAVE SEEN THIS WITH THE CLIMATE AGREEMENT OR THE IRAN DEAL,” DEUTSCHE WELLE REPORTED GERMAN FOREIGN MINISTER HEIKO MAAS SAYING ON SUNDAY. “IN A MATTER OF SECONDS, YOU CAN DESTROY TRUST WITH 280 TWITTER CHARACTERS.”

THE RUPTURE ON CLIMATE CHANGE, WHICH HAS BEEN BUILDING EVER SINCE TRUMP DECLARED THAT THE UNITED STATES WOULD PULL OUT OF PARIS, WAS OVERSHADOWED IN THE MAINSTREAM PRESS BY CONFLICTS OVER INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND RELATED ISSUES, AND BY PERSONAL CLASHES, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN HIM AND PRIME MINISTER JUSTIN TRUDEAU, THE HOST OF THE GATHERING. 

COMMITTED TO PARIS, CARBON-NEUTRAL ECONOMY

IN THE COMMUNIQUE’S SECTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE, EVERY MEMBER EXCEPT THE UNITED STATES STOOD TOGETHER IN SUPPORTING THE PARIS CLIMATE AGREEMENT AND PROMISING TO WORK WITH ONE ANOTHER, LOCAL GOVERNMENTS, BUSINESSES AND THE PUBLIC TO DEAL WITH GLOBAL WARMING.

“CANADA, FRANCE, GERMANY, ITALY, JAPAN THE UK AND THE EUROPEAN UNIONREAFFIRM THEIR STRONG COMMITMENT TO IMPLEMENT THE PARIS AGREEMENT, THROUGH AMBITIOUS CLIMATE ACTION; IN PARTICULAR THROUGH REDUCING EMISSIONS WHILE STIMULATING INNOVATION, ENHANCING ADAPTIVE CAPACITY, STRENGTHENING AND FINANCING RESILIENCE AND REDUCING VULNERABILITY; AS WELL AS ENSURING A JUST TRANSITION, INCLUDING INCREASING EFFORTS TO MOBILIZE CLIMATE FINANCE FROM A WIDE VARIETY OF SOURCES,” THE COMMUNIQUE STATES.

THE LEADERS, MINUS THE U.S., ALSO COMMITTED TO REDUCE AIR AND WATER POLLUTION AND GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS TO REACH A GLOBAL CARBON-NEUTRAL ECONOMY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE CENTURY. 

THE COMMUNIQUE SAYS THEY ALSO FOCUSED ON, AMONG OTHER THINGS:

  • ENERGY TRANSITIONS THROUGH MARKET-BASED CLEAN ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES;
  • “THE IMPORTANCE OF CARBON PRICING, TECHNOLOGY COLLABORATION AND INNOVATION TO CONTINUE ADVANCING ECONOMIC GROWTH AND PROTECT THE ENVIRONMENT AS PART OF SUSTAINABLE, RESILIENT AND LOW-CARBON ENERGY SYSTEMS”;
  • FINANCING TO IMPROVE ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE; AND
  • CONCRETE ACTIONS TO PROTECT THE HEALTH OF THE WORLD’S OCEANS. THE SIX ENDORSED THE CHARLEVOIX BLUEPRINT FOR HEALTH OCEANS, SEAS AND RESILIENT COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JAPAN) THE G7 OCEAN PLASTICS CHARTER.

U.S. GOES ITS OWN WAY: PROMOTING FOSSIL FUELS

U.S. NEGOTIATORS WROTE THEIR OWN PARAGRAPH FOR THE CLIMATE SECTION THAT FOCUSED ON PROMOTING THE BURNING OF FOSSIL FUELS.

“THE UNITED STATES WILL ENDEAVOUR TO WORK CLOSELY WITH OTHER COUNTRIES TO HELP THEM ACCESS AND USE FOSSIL FUELS MORE CLEANLY AND EFFICIENTLY,” IT SAID. “THE UNITED STATES BELIEVES IN THE KEY ROLE OF ENERGY TRANSITIONS THROUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARKET-BASED CLEAN ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES AND THE IMPORTANCE OF TECHNOLOGY COLLABORATION AND INNOVATION TO CONTINUE ADVANCING ECONOMIC GROWTH AND PROTECT THE ENVIRONMENT AS PART OF SUSTAINABLE, RESILIENT AND CLEAN ENERGY SYSTEMS.”

THIS RESEMBLES LANGUAGE THAT THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION HAS OFFERED BEFORE, BUT THAT OTHER PARTIES TO THE PARIS AGREEMENT DON’T EMBRACE, AND NONE OF THE OTHER SIX NATIONS SIGNED ON TO IT.

IT’S MORE COMMON FOR OTHER NATIONS, WHETHER RICH OR POOR, TO CALL FOR ACHIEVING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT ON PATHWAYS THAT SIMULTANEOUSLY BRING DOWN CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS RAPIDLY ENOUGH TO STAVE OFF THE WORST RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, WHICH WILL HURT THE POOREST NATIONS THE MOST.

‘WRECKING BALL APPROACH TO DIPLOMACY’

PRESIDENT TRUMP’S WRECKING BALL APPROACH TO INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMACY LEFT HIM UTTERLY ISOLATED AT THE G7 SUMMIT,” WROTE ALDEN MEYER, DIRECTOR OF STRATEGY AND POLICY AT THE UNION OF CONCERNED SCIENTISTS. “LEADERS FROM THE OTHER SIX COUNTRIES DIDN’T EVEN TRY TO PAPER OVER THEIR STRONG DISAGREEMENTS WITH TRUMP ON TRADE, CLIMATE CHANGE AND OTHER IMPORTANT ISSUES.

THEY ARE JOINED BY THOUSANDS OF MAYORS, GOVERNORS, BUSINESS LEADERS AND OTHERS WHO ARE MOVING FORWARD WITH AMBITIOUS CLIMATE ACTION AND PURSUING THE TREMENDOUS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND JOB CREATION BENEFITS THAT CLEAN ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES PROVIDE. AS COMMUNITIES ACROSS THE U.S. CONFRONT THE COSTLY AND HARMFUL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, IT’S THESE LEADERS—NOT PRESIDENT TRUMP—WHO ARE ACTING IN THE TRUE ECONOMIC, ENVIRONMENTAL AND NATIONAL SECURITY INTERESTS OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE.”

THIS YEAR’S G7 STATEMENT ON CLIMATE CHANGE WAS MORE EXTENSIVE THAN THE2017 COMMUNIQUE‘S. LAST YEAR, A SINGLE PARAGRAPH STATED THAT THE U.S. WAS REVIEWING ITS POLICIES AND WAS “NOT IN A POSITION TO JOIN THE CONSENSUS.” THE OTHER LEADERS SAID ONLY THAT THEY RECOGNIZED THE PROCESS UNDERWAY IN THE U.S. AND THAT THEY REAFFIRMED THEIR COMMITMENT TO THE PARIS AGREEMENT.

“AMERICA—UNTIL NOW—HAD LED ON CLIMATE,” EDF PRESIDENT FRED KRUPP WROTE AFTER THIS WEEK’S G7 MEETING. “TODAY OUR PRESIDENT DOESN’T EVEN CARE ENOUGH TO BE PRESENT. WE ALL MUST WORK TO RESTORE THE USA TO A LEADERSHIP POSITION.”

GREENPEACE, MEANWHILE, PUT PRESSURE ON THE OTHER NATIONS: “THE JOINT COMMITMENT TO CLIMATE ACTION FORGED IN PARIS REMAINS AT THE TOP OF THE GEOPOLITICAL AGENDA DESPITE THE U.S. ADMINISTRATION’S REPEATED ATTEMPTS TO DEMOLISH IT,” EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR JENNIFER MORGAN WROTE. “G6 LEADERS NOW HAVE TO DEMONSTRATE THEIR COMMITMENT IN PRACTICE.”

June 11, 2018 Posted by | climate change, politics international, USA | Leave a comment

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