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The world needs now to recognise climate refugees

TIM MCDONNELL , This month, diplomats from around the world met in New York and Geneva to hash out a pair of new global agreements that aim to lay out new guidelines for how countries should deal with an unprecedented surge in the number of displaced people, which has now reached 65.6 million worldwide.

But there’s one emerging category that seems to be getting short shrift in the conversation: so-called “climate refugees,” who currently lack any formal definition, recognition or protection under international law even as the scope of their predicament becomes more clear.

Since 2008, an average of 24 million people have been displaced by catastrophic weather disasters each year. As climate change worsens storms and droughts, climate scientists and migration experts expect that number to rise.

Meanwhile, climate impacts that unravel over time, like desert expansion and sea level rise, are also forcing people from their homes: A World Bank report in March projects that within three of the most vulnerable regions — sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Latin America — 143 million people could be displaced by these impacts by 2050.

In Bangladesh, hundreds of thousands of people are routinely uprooted by coastal flooding, many making a treacherous journey to the slums of the capital, Dhaka. In West Africa, the almost total disappearance of Lake Chad because of desertification has empowered terrorists and forced more than four million people into camps.

It’s a problem in the United States as well. An estimated 2,300 Puerto Rican familiesdisplaced by Hurricane Maria are still looking for permanent housing, while government officials have spent years working to preemptively relocate more than a dozen small coastal communities in Alaska and Louisiana that are disappearing into the rising sea.

A December study by Columbia University climate researchers in the peer-reviewed journal Science projected that if global temperatures continue their upward march, applications for asylum to the European Union could increase 28 percent to nearly 450,000 per year by 2100.

June 23, 2018 Posted by | 2 WORLD, climate change | Leave a comment

Leaked UN draft report – world is on track to exceed 1.5C of warming

Guardian 15th June 2018 The world is on track to exceed 1.5C of warming unless countries rapidly implement “far-reaching” actions to reduce carbon emissions, according to a draft UN report leaked to Reuters. The final draft report from the UN’s intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) was due for publication in
October. It is the guiding scientific document for what countries must do to combat climate change.

Human-induced warming would exceed 1.5C by about 2040 if emissions continued at their present rate, the report found, but countries could keep warming below that level if they made “rapid and far reaching” changes.

Under the 2015 Paris climate agreement, almost 200 countries signed up to limit global temperature rises to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5C. Climate scientist and Climate Analytics director Bill Hare said the draft report showed with greater clarity how much faster countries needed to move towards decarbonisation under various temperature situations and that the impacts of climate change greatly increased between 1.5C and 2C of warming.

Necessary actions include making the transition to renewable energy, powering the transport sector with zero carbon electricity, improving agricultural management and stopping deforestation.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/15/leaked-un-draft-report-warns-of-urgent-need-to-cut-global-warming

June 15, 2018 Posted by | 2 WORLD, climate change | 2 Comments

Scientists predict millions of climate refugees – but where will they go?

Universal migration predicts human movements under climate change, Physics World, 12 Jun 2018 

Climate change is expected to displace millions of people through impacts like sea level rise, crop failures, and more frequent extreme weather. Yet scientists still cannot predict where these expected climate-induced migrants are likely to go in the coming decades.

A new study, published today in Environmental Research Letters, seeks to address this need by incorporating climate impacts into a universal model of human mobility.

To demonstrate the efficacy of the new approach, the study focused on the case of sea level rise (SLR) and human migration in Bangladesh, where the authors estimate that more than two million Bangladeshis may be displaced from their homes by 2100 because of rising sea levels alone.

The study, led by Columbia University, New York, used a probabilistic model combined with population, geographic, and climatic data to predict the sources, destinations, and flux of potential migrants caused by sea level rise.

Lead author Dr Kyle Davis, from Columbia University, explained: “More than 40 per cent of Bangladesh’s population is especially vulnerable to future sea level rise, as they live in low-lying areas that are often exposed to extreme natural events.

“However, SLR is a very different type of migration driver from short-lived natural hazards, in that it will make certain areas permanently uninhabitable.”

The team’s results using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios showed that mean SLR will cause population displacements in 33 per cent of Bangladesh’s districts, and 53 per cent under more intensive conditions. By mid-century, they estimated nearly 900,000 people are likely to migrate because of direct inundation from mean SLR alone.

Under the most extreme scenario, of up to 2 metre mean SLR, the number of migrants driven by direct inundation could rise to as many as 2.1 million people by the year 2100. For all RCP scenarios, five districts – Barisal, Chandpur, Munshiganj, Narayanganj, and Shariatpur – are the source for 59 per cent of all migrants.

Their analysis considered mean SLR without normal high tides, so the results – both in terms of inundated area and displaced population – are conservative.

The researchers also estimated the extra jobs, housing and food needed to accommodate these migrants at their destinations. They found that to cope with the numbers likely to be displaced by 2050, 600,000 additional jobs, 200,000 residences and 784 billion food calories will be needed.

These results have clear implications for the places that are likely to receive incoming migrants…….https://physicsworld.com/a/universal-migration-predicts-human-movements-under-climate-change/

June 13, 2018 Posted by | ASIA, climate change | Leave a comment

Faster global warming predicted, with new Antarctic study

Climate Central   By Mikayla Mace, Arizona Daily Star  10 June 18

A group of scientists, including one from the University of Arizona, has new findings suggesting Antarctica’s Southern Ocean — long known to play an integral role in climate change — may not be absorbing as much pollution as previously thought.

To reach their contradictory conclusion, the team used state-of-the-art sensors to collect more data on the Southern Ocean than ever before, including during the perilous winter months that previously made the research difficult if not impossible.The old belief was the ocean pulled about 13 percent of the world’s carbon dioxide — a greenhouse gas that contributes to climate change — out of the atmosphere, helping put the brakes on rising global temperatures.

Some oceanographers suspect that less CO2 is being absorbed because the westerlies — the winds that ring the southernmost continent — are tightening like a noose. As these powerful winds get more concentrated, they dig at the water, pushing it out and away.

Water from below rises to take its place, dragging up decaying muck made of carbon from deep in the ocean that can then either be released into the atmosphere in the form of CO2 or slow the rate that CO2 is absorbed by the water. Either way, it’s not good.

The Southern Ocean is far away, but “for Arizona, this is what matters,” said Joellen Russell, the University of Arizona oceanographer and co-author on the paper revealing these findings. “We don’t see the Southern Ocean, and yet it has reached out the icy hand.”

Oceans, rivers, lakes and vegetation can moderate extreme changes in temperature. Southern Arizona has no such buffers, leaving us vulnerable as average global temperatures march upward.

“Everybody asks, ‘Why are you at the UA?’” Russell said about studying the Southern Ocean from the desert at the University of Arizona. She said the research is important to Arizona and the university supports her work.

…….. scientists know less about the Southern Ocean than the rest of the world’s oceans. What they do know is mostly limited to surface CO2 levels in the summer, when it’s safer to take measurements by ships with researchers aboard. Shipboard sensors that directly measure CO2 are the accepted scientific standard in these types of studies.

Understanding CO2 levels within the air, land and sea and how it is exchanged between the three is necessary for making more accurate future climate predictions.

To fill the gap in knowledge, Russell and her team have deployed an array of cylindrical tanks, called floats, that collect data on carbon and more in the Southern Ocean year-round. Russell leads the modeling component of this project called Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling, or SOCCOM.

The floats drift 1,000 meters below the surface. Every 10 days, they plunge a thousand meters deeper, then bob up to the surface before returning to their original depth.

For three years, 35 floats equipped with state-of-the-art sensors the size of a coffee cup have been collecting data along the way and beaming it back to the researchers, like Russell in Tucson. Within hours, the data is freely available online.

They measure ocean acidity, or pH, and other metrics to understand the biogeochemistry of the elusive ocean, but not without controversy.

Making a splash

Alison Gray, an oceanographer at the University of Washington, is the lead author on the study. She said there are two reasons the study may contradict what has previously been thought of about the Southern Ocean: The lack of winter-time observations at the ocean by other researchers and the fact that ocean carbon levels might vary throughout the year.

So while SOCCOM is making it possible to get more data than ever before, others question her nontraditional methods. ………http://www.climatecentral.org/news/antarctic-ocean-discovery-warns-of-faster-global-warming-21865

June 13, 2018 Posted by | ANTARCTICA, climate change, oceans | Leave a comment

President Trump’s conference wrecking strategy on climate action, at G7 meeting in Canada

“CANADA, FRANCE, GERMANY, ITALY, JAPAN THE UK AND THE EUROPEAN UNIONREAFFIRM THEIR STRONG COMMITMENT TO IMPLEMENT THE PARIS AGREEMENT, THROUGH AMBITIOUS CLIMATE ACTION”

“PRESIDENT TRUMP’S WRECKING BALL APPROACH TO INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMACY LEFT HIM UTTERLY ISOLATED AT THE G7 SUMMIT,”

Six of the G7 Commit to Climate Action. Trump Wouldn’t Even Join Conversation.  https://insideclimatenews.org/news/10062018/g7-summit-climate-change-communique-trump-allies-estranged-germany-france-canada

Trump skipped the formal climate discussions, had the U.S. negotiators promote fossil fuels instead, and then renounced the group’s official communique. BY STAFF, INSIDECLIMATE NEWS JUN 10, 2018  

President Donald Trump’s disdain for action on climate change, along with his other demands and behavior, left the United States estranged from its closest allies following the weekend summit of the Group of Seven major industrial democracies.

Trump skipped the G7’s formal discussions on the global warming crisis. And in the summit’s communique, the United States refused to join in common statements by the other six nations reaffirming their commitment to the Paris climate agreement, which he wants to abandon. In turn, none of them signed onto unilateral U.S. language pushing development of fossil fuels. And in the end, Trump renounced the whole communique in a Twitter tirade.

The governments of France and Germany said afterward that they and the European Union stood by the communique.

“Let’s be serious and worthy of our people,” the French presidency said in a statement quoted by AFP. “International co-operation cannot be dictated by fits of anger and throwaway remarks.”

“WE HAVE SEEN THIS WITH THE CLIMATE AGREEMENT OR THE IRAN DEAL,” DEUTSCHE WELLE REPORTED GERMAN FOREIGN MINISTER HEIKO MAAS SAYING ON SUNDAY. “IN A MATTER OF SECONDS, YOU CAN DESTROY TRUST WITH 280 TWITTER CHARACTERS.”

THE RUPTURE ON CLIMATE CHANGE, WHICH HAS BEEN BUILDING EVER SINCE TRUMP DECLARED THAT THE UNITED STATES WOULD PULL OUT OF PARIS, WAS OVERSHADOWED IN THE MAINSTREAM PRESS BY CONFLICTS OVER INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND RELATED ISSUES, AND BY PERSONAL CLASHES, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN HIM AND PRIME MINISTER JUSTIN TRUDEAU, THE HOST OF THE GATHERING. 

COMMITTED TO PARIS, CARBON-NEUTRAL ECONOMY

IN THE COMMUNIQUE’S SECTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE, EVERY MEMBER EXCEPT THE UNITED STATES STOOD TOGETHER IN SUPPORTING THE PARIS CLIMATE AGREEMENT AND PROMISING TO WORK WITH ONE ANOTHER, LOCAL GOVERNMENTS, BUSINESSES AND THE PUBLIC TO DEAL WITH GLOBAL WARMING.

“CANADA, FRANCE, GERMANY, ITALY, JAPAN THE UK AND THE EUROPEAN UNIONREAFFIRM THEIR STRONG COMMITMENT TO IMPLEMENT THE PARIS AGREEMENT, THROUGH AMBITIOUS CLIMATE ACTION; IN PARTICULAR THROUGH REDUCING EMISSIONS WHILE STIMULATING INNOVATION, ENHANCING ADAPTIVE CAPACITY, STRENGTHENING AND FINANCING RESILIENCE AND REDUCING VULNERABILITY; AS WELL AS ENSURING A JUST TRANSITION, INCLUDING INCREASING EFFORTS TO MOBILIZE CLIMATE FINANCE FROM A WIDE VARIETY OF SOURCES,” THE COMMUNIQUE STATES.

THE LEADERS, MINUS THE U.S., ALSO COMMITTED TO REDUCE AIR AND WATER POLLUTION AND GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS TO REACH A GLOBAL CARBON-NEUTRAL ECONOMY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE CENTURY. 

THE COMMUNIQUE SAYS THEY ALSO FOCUSED ON, AMONG OTHER THINGS:

  • ENERGY TRANSITIONS THROUGH MARKET-BASED CLEAN ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES;
  • “THE IMPORTANCE OF CARBON PRICING, TECHNOLOGY COLLABORATION AND INNOVATION TO CONTINUE ADVANCING ECONOMIC GROWTH AND PROTECT THE ENVIRONMENT AS PART OF SUSTAINABLE, RESILIENT AND LOW-CARBON ENERGY SYSTEMS”;
  • FINANCING TO IMPROVE ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE; AND
  • CONCRETE ACTIONS TO PROTECT THE HEALTH OF THE WORLD’S OCEANS. THE SIX ENDORSED THE CHARLEVOIX BLUEPRINT FOR HEALTH OCEANS, SEAS AND RESILIENT COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JAPAN) THE G7 OCEAN PLASTICS CHARTER.

U.S. GOES ITS OWN WAY: PROMOTING FOSSIL FUELS

U.S. NEGOTIATORS WROTE THEIR OWN PARAGRAPH FOR THE CLIMATE SECTION THAT FOCUSED ON PROMOTING THE BURNING OF FOSSIL FUELS.

“THE UNITED STATES WILL ENDEAVOUR TO WORK CLOSELY WITH OTHER COUNTRIES TO HELP THEM ACCESS AND USE FOSSIL FUELS MORE CLEANLY AND EFFICIENTLY,” IT SAID. “THE UNITED STATES BELIEVES IN THE KEY ROLE OF ENERGY TRANSITIONS THROUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARKET-BASED CLEAN ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES AND THE IMPORTANCE OF TECHNOLOGY COLLABORATION AND INNOVATION TO CONTINUE ADVANCING ECONOMIC GROWTH AND PROTECT THE ENVIRONMENT AS PART OF SUSTAINABLE, RESILIENT AND CLEAN ENERGY SYSTEMS.”

THIS RESEMBLES LANGUAGE THAT THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION HAS OFFERED BEFORE, BUT THAT OTHER PARTIES TO THE PARIS AGREEMENT DON’T EMBRACE, AND NONE OF THE OTHER SIX NATIONS SIGNED ON TO IT.

IT’S MORE COMMON FOR OTHER NATIONS, WHETHER RICH OR POOR, TO CALL FOR ACHIEVING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT ON PATHWAYS THAT SIMULTANEOUSLY BRING DOWN CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS RAPIDLY ENOUGH TO STAVE OFF THE WORST RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, WHICH WILL HURT THE POOREST NATIONS THE MOST.

‘WRECKING BALL APPROACH TO DIPLOMACY’

PRESIDENT TRUMP’S WRECKING BALL APPROACH TO INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMACY LEFT HIM UTTERLY ISOLATED AT THE G7 SUMMIT,” WROTE ALDEN MEYER, DIRECTOR OF STRATEGY AND POLICY AT THE UNION OF CONCERNED SCIENTISTS. “LEADERS FROM THE OTHER SIX COUNTRIES DIDN’T EVEN TRY TO PAPER OVER THEIR STRONG DISAGREEMENTS WITH TRUMP ON TRADE, CLIMATE CHANGE AND OTHER IMPORTANT ISSUES.

THEY ARE JOINED BY THOUSANDS OF MAYORS, GOVERNORS, BUSINESS LEADERS AND OTHERS WHO ARE MOVING FORWARD WITH AMBITIOUS CLIMATE ACTION AND PURSUING THE TREMENDOUS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND JOB CREATION BENEFITS THAT CLEAN ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES PROVIDE. AS COMMUNITIES ACROSS THE U.S. CONFRONT THE COSTLY AND HARMFUL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, IT’S THESE LEADERS—NOT PRESIDENT TRUMP—WHO ARE ACTING IN THE TRUE ECONOMIC, ENVIRONMENTAL AND NATIONAL SECURITY INTERESTS OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE.”

THIS YEAR’S G7 STATEMENT ON CLIMATE CHANGE WAS MORE EXTENSIVE THAN THE2017 COMMUNIQUE‘S. LAST YEAR, A SINGLE PARAGRAPH STATED THAT THE U.S. WAS REVIEWING ITS POLICIES AND WAS “NOT IN A POSITION TO JOIN THE CONSENSUS.” THE OTHER LEADERS SAID ONLY THAT THEY RECOGNIZED THE PROCESS UNDERWAY IN THE U.S. AND THAT THEY REAFFIRMED THEIR COMMITMENT TO THE PARIS AGREEMENT.

“AMERICA—UNTIL NOW—HAD LED ON CLIMATE,” EDF PRESIDENT FRED KRUPP WROTE AFTER THIS WEEK’S G7 MEETING. “TODAY OUR PRESIDENT DOESN’T EVEN CARE ENOUGH TO BE PRESENT. WE ALL MUST WORK TO RESTORE THE USA TO A LEADERSHIP POSITION.”

GREENPEACE, MEANWHILE, PUT PRESSURE ON THE OTHER NATIONS: “THE JOINT COMMITMENT TO CLIMATE ACTION FORGED IN PARIS REMAINS AT THE TOP OF THE GEOPOLITICAL AGENDA DESPITE THE U.S. ADMINISTRATION’S REPEATED ATTEMPTS TO DEMOLISH IT,” EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR JENNIFER MORGAN WROTE. “G6 LEADERS NOW HAVE TO DEMONSTRATE THEIR COMMITMENT IN PRACTICE.”

June 11, 2018 Posted by | climate change, politics international, USA | Leave a comment

Tons of water poured in by planes, to major wildfire inside the Chernobyl ‘dead zone’

Large fire ravages Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, tons of water poured in by planes https://www.rt.com/news/428807-chernobyl-exclusion-zone-fire/ 

A major wildfire is sweeping through the Chernobyl nuclear disaster area. The authorities have deployed dozens of fire trucks as firefighting aircraft bombard the radioactive exclusion zone with massive amounts of water.

The fire inside the Chernobyl ‘dead zone,’ which is now part of Ukraine, started on Tuesday morning, when dry grass was ignited, local emergency services said in a statement. The wildfire subsequently reached a forest, where up to 10 hectares (24 acres) are now in flames.

Some 29 vehicles and 126 personnel have been dispatched at the scene, with several planes and helicopters dropping water from the sky on the area engulfed by wildfire.

The zone saw another large blaze last year, which scorched 25 hectares (60 acres) of land.

Chernobyl became the site of one of the biggest nuclear disasters in history, when a local power reactor blew up in 1986, leading to massive contamination of the surrounding area. The severely damaged reactor was sealed off by a protective ‘sarcophagus’ of steel and concrete, while the nearby town of Pripyat had its 50,000 population evacuated. Today, Pripayt is a ghost town. The so-called ‘exclusion zone’ was imposed around the site of the disaster, banning visitors.

Current winds are not blowing residual pollution towards the country’s capital Kiev, local authorities said, noting that radiation levels remain normal.

June 11, 2018 Posted by | climate change, Ukraine | Leave a comment

No surprise that Donald Trump is a no-show at G7 climate meeting

Donald Trump Is Reportedly Skipping The G7 Climate Meeting & It’s No Surprise, Elite Daily By Hannah Golden 9 June 18,  The annual Group of 7 (G7) summit of world leaders was just kicking off on Friday afternoon, but for the U.S. president, the conference will be cut short. President Donald Trump is reportedly skipping the G7 climate meetings, the White House announced, per CNN. The announcement came Thursday amid a contentious series of exchanges on trade with his foreign counterparts on Twitter.

The summit — this year held in Canada — begins June 8 and continues through the weekend. This year’s program includes working sessions on oceans, climate change, and clean energy.

The G7 summits began in the 1970s as an informal meeting of the world’s most advanced economies to discuss issues facing them. The U.S. has always been a central fixture in the event, making the president’s decision to forego the meetings a notable one.

Trump reportedly pulled out of the climate meeting following a day of salty Twitter exchanges with French President Emmanuel Macron and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. “The American President may not mind being isolated, but neither do we mind signing a 6 country agreement if need be,” tweeted Macron on June 7, referring to recent international policy moves by Trump. “Because these 6 countries represent values, they represent an economic market which has the weight of history behind it and which is now a true international force.”

That Trump decided to leave his international counterparts high and dry on the meeting is no surprise. Just over a year ago, the president pulled out of the international Paris climate accord, setting off a wave of criticism and straining diplomatic leverage. Trump also formally left the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also called the Iran nuclear deal, in May.

Washington Post economic policy reporter Damian Paletta summed up Trump’s drama with world leaders in advance of the summit, showing that it was already making out to be a tense affair……..

……..Trump will be leaving early Saturday prior to the climate portion, CNN reports, and an aide is said to be filling in for him at the meetings.https://www.elitedaily.com/p/donald-trump-is-reportedly-skipping-the-g7-climate-meeting-its-no-surprise-9343750

June 9, 2018 Posted by | climate change, politics international, USA | 1 Comment

Despite Ukrainian Prime Minister’s reassurances, Wildfires near Chernobyl are potentially catastrophic

Radio Free Europe 6th June 2018 , Scientists have been concerned for decades about potentially catastrophic wildfires inside the exclusion zone around the defunct Chernobyl nuclear power plant in Ukraine — the site in 1986 of the world’s worst nuclear accident.

That’s because trees and brush in the zone have absorbed radioactive particles that can be released into the air by the smoke of a wildfire.

Not surprisingly, some experts are skeptical about Ukrainian Prime Minister Volodymyr Hroysman’s claim on Facebook that “there’s no need to worry” about a June 5 blaze that raced through the so-called Red Forest — one of the most contaminated patches of forest near Chernobyl.
https://www.rferl.org/a/prime-minister-says-don-t-worry-but-scientists-concerned-about-chernobyl-wildfires/29276072.html

June 9, 2018 Posted by | climate change, safety, Ukraine | 1 Comment

“Aspiration” rather than a genuine plan now for limiting global warming to 2 degrees

Limiting global warming to 2 degrees now ‘aspirational’: scientists, https://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/limiting-global-warming-to-2-degrees-now-aspirational-scientists-20180604-p4zjeb.htmlThe Age, By Peter Hannam, The chance of limiting human-induced global warming to less than 2 degrees is rapidly disappearing as carbon emissions again ramp up in China while reductions in the US and elsewhere stall, scientists say.

Data from the CSIRO’s Global Carbon Project indicates greenhouse gas emissions in China accelerated to 1.5 per cent growth last year. China is now responsible for about a third of the world’s carbon emissions.

“That was quite significant growth for China because we had seen almost three years of little or no increase,” the project’s director, Pep Canadell, told Fairfax Media.

Early indications are that 2018 could see an even larger rise, with China’s carbon emissions in the first quarter jumping 4 per cent alone, according to a Greenpeace analysis.

2017’s increase was partly caused by a revival of China’s reliance on heavy industrial growth to prop up the economy, and a drop in hydro electric generation amid poor rainfall, Dr Canadell said.  This year’s growth, though, is also being spurred by a pick-up in the global economy.

Given China’s emissions are roughly double the next largest polluter – the US – and triple the European Union’s, its acceleration means there is a fast-diminishing chance that the rise in global average temperatures can be restricted to the range of 1.5 to 2 degrees, as agreed at the 2015 Paris climate conference.

“Most climate scientists think 2 degrees [compared with pre-industrial levels] to be aspirational,” said Andy Pitman, director of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes.

Even if emissions ceased globally, it is probable warming would still reach at least 1.5 degrees given the longevity of carbon-dioxide and other heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere, he said.

With increasing evidence of extreme weather events even at the roughly 1 degree of warming so far – including compounding risks of bushfires, heatwaves and droughts – societies can expect impacts to worsen, Professor Pitman said: “The notion that 1.5 degrees is somehow safe is totally incompatible with the evidence.”

‘Not a pretty picture’

News in recent days that the Trump administration plans to bolster the ailing US coal-fired power industry by intervening in markets would worsen the global emissions picture.

The CSIRO’s Dr Canadell said while US carbon emissions had fallen for a decade, last year’s decline will likely be much smaller because of quickening economic growth at home and abroad.

The European Union, too, was likely to register a slower emissions drop. Australia, meanwhile, is on course to increase its carbon pollution for a fourth year in a row, a “remarkable” result for a rich nation, he said.

Bruce Nilles, a former head of the Sierra Club’s “Beyond Coal” campaign, who is visiting Australia, said President Trump’s “brazen efforts” to help coal in US would likely be stymied by a flurry of lawsuits from other energy suppliers.

The US had seen 266 coal-fired power plants shut or set closure dates since 2010, and these “were continuing at the same rate as during the last few years of the Obama administration”, he said.

Filling the gap were more than 10,000 megawatts of new wind and solar capacity each year, a process likely to continue as their technology becomes even cheaper, Mr Nilles said.

June 6, 2018 Posted by | 2 WORLD, climate change | Leave a comment

Wildfire season has already begun close to Hanford nuclear reservation

Wildfire Season Starts Off With A Bang At Hanford https://www.opb.org/news/article/northwest-wildfire-season-2018-hanford-nuclear-reservation/  by Anna King June 5, 2018  Firefighters scrambled Sunday night at the Hanford nuclear reservation to corral a 2,800-acre wildfire. Hanford officials said the wildfire started Sunday evening. 

The fire, which was put out by midnight, was likely started by lightning and driven by blustery winds. It didn’t burn any buildings at Hanford or any areas where radioactive waste is stored.

Still, Hanford spokespeople said the fire is a good wakeup that the fire season has started in earnest. They’re concerned about tall dried grasses and brush from last year’s wet conditions — and this year’s drier conditions.

Hanford workers have been clearing firebreaks along highways that run through the 586-square-mile reservation.

Last summer, there were two large fires that burned across the Hanford Reach National Monument, BLM, state and private ground near the desert nuclear reservation. The East Saddle Mountain Fire was 17,465 acres and the Silver Dollar Fire burned 30,909 acres.

June 6, 2018 Posted by | climate change, USA | Leave a comment

Stopping coal and nuclear retirements is a priority for President Trump

NRDC 1st June 2018 The Trump Administration has made no secret of its desire to prop up coal
and nuclear plants for political purposes and today the White House made it abundantly clear. At the same time, a leaked draft memo unveiled last night repackages a previously rejected idea to bail out coal and nuclear plants, this time arguing that they are needed to protect national security.

The memo proposes that the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) issue an order requiring electricity grid operators to purchase, for two years, electricity from expensive and uncompetitive coal and nuclear facilities that would otherwise retire. Neither the White House nor DOE have owned up to the memo or its contents.

But White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders stated today that stopping coal and nuclear retirements remains a priority for President Trump, and that he has directed DOE Secretary Rick Perry “to prepare immediate steps to stop the loss of these resources, and looks forward to his recommendations.”
https://www.nrdc.org/experts/john-moore/coal-and-nuclear-bailout-memo-recycled-idea-new-hat

June 4, 2018 Posted by | climate change, politics, USA | Leave a comment

USA government to use Emergency Measures to prop up coal and nuclear industries

Trump orders Energy Secretary Perry to halt shutdown of coal and nuclear plants, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/trump-officials-preparing-to-use-cold-war-emergency-powers-to-protect-coal-and-nuclear-plants/2018/06/01/230f0778-65a9-11e8-a69c-b944de66d9e7_story.html?utm_term=.5abb572447d6, By Steven Mufson  Email the author  1 June 18, President Trump on Friday ordered Energy Secretary Rick Perry to halt the shutdown of ailing coal and nuclear power plants that he said were needed to maintain the nation’s energy mix, grid resilience and national security.

“Unfortunately, impending retirements of fuel-secure power facilities are leading to a rapid depletion of a critical part of our nation’s energy mix, and impacting the resilience of our power grid,” the White House said in a statement.

The Trump administration has been preparing to invoke emergency powers granted under Cold War-era legislation to order regional grid operators to buy electricity from ailing coal and nuclear power plants. There have been meetings this week at the Cabinet deputies’ level and at the National Security Council.

One likely plan, laid out in a 41-page draft memorandum posted online by Bloomberg News and Utility Dive, would favor certain power plants in the name of national security. Those plants are owned by some of the president’s political allies in the coal industry.

According to the draft memo, the Energy Department would exercise its emergency authority to order grid operators to give preference to plants “that have a secure on-site fuel supply” and that “are essential to support the Nation’s defense facilities, critical energy infrastructure, and other critical infrastructure.” Only coal and nuclear plants regularly keep fuel on site.

The Energy Department would also establish a “Strategic Electric Generation Reserve.” The memo added that “federal action is necessary to stop the further premature retirements of fuel-secure generation capacity.” The emergency rules would be a “prudent stopgap measure” that would last two years while the Energy Department did further study.

“President Trump believes in total energy independence and dominance, and that keeping America’s energy grid and infrastructure strong and secure protects our national security, public safety and economy from intentional attacks and natural disasters,” the White House said.

The idea of declaring an emergency under the Defense Production Act of 1950 (used by President Harry S. Truman for the steel industry) and Section 202 of the Federal Power Act has been promoted by the chief executives of the coal-mining firm Murray Energy and the Ohio utility FirstEnergy, both of whom have contributed heavily to Trump’s political activities.

Robert Murray presented a proposal to Energy Secretary Rick Perry in March 2017, the month Perry took office. And on April 2 of this year, FirstEnergy appealed for emergency help after a subsidiary operating ailing power plants filed for bankruptcy protection.

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, an independent agency, unanimously rejected an earlier proposal by the Energy Department that would have favored coal and nuclear plants.

In a recent appearance at a Washington Post Live event, FERC Chairman Kevin McIntyre said that using the emergency powers was “perhaps not the most obvious fit.”

He said using that section of the Federal Power Act “tees off the concept of continuance of a war in which the United States is involved as being kind of the baseline circumstance that would justify a DOE order to certain types of facilities to either begin operating or continue operation.”

Environmental groups, natural-gas producers, and Republicans and Democrats who have pushed for greater competition in electricity markets all condemned the latest signal that the administration might be moving closer to imposing the Energy Department’s plan.

They noted that the coal and nuclear power plants that would benefit have failed to compete against natural gas, solar and wind. Many of the plants have operated far longer than anticipated when they were built.

“Uneconomic, dirty coal plants retiring does not represent a national security risk,” Michael Panfil, director of federal energy policy and senior attorney with the Environmental Defense Fund, wrote on his blog. “If Trump chooses to bail out these failing coal plants, he’ll be forcing Americans to pay for dirty energy that pollutes our environment and makes people sick.”

Katie Bays of Height Capital Markets, an investment research firm, wrote in a commentary: “If DOE proceeds as the memo suggests, a selection of coal and nuclear plants, ostensibly those at risk of retirement, would receive subsidized payments . . . under a stitched-together ‘Frankenstein’s monster’ of federal authorities. Above all, the subsidy would be a major victory for FirstEnergy as it negotiates with bondholders over the value of coal and nuclear plants owned by its bankrupt FirstEnergy Solutions subsidiary.”

FirstEnergy’s top lobbyist last year was Jeff Miller, who was campaign manager for the presidential campaign of Perry, now energy secretary. Trump attended a private dinner with Miller and a handful of political advisers in early April.

June 2, 2018 Posted by | climate change, politics, USA | Leave a comment

The unequal impacts of climate change on regions and peoples

Climate change won’t heat the planet equally, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, By Thomas Gaulkin, 1 June 18

“…..In places closer to the equator that usually see only slight variations in temperature, the consequences of global warming are likely to be far more extreme. The outsize vulnerability of the world’s poorest people to damaging effects of climate change like droughts and floods is well established. It’s harder for people to overcome disasters in regions without the resources and infrastructure that are plentiful in wealthier parts of the world.

Now, a new study published in Geophysical Research Letters adds insult to injury. By mapping economic and social development to  climate models’ “signal-to-noise ratio”—which compares normal local temperature fluctuation (noise) to overall increases to average local temperatures (signal)—the authors determined that the poorest populations on the planet will experience more perceptible climate change than the richest. In other words, in places with already fragile social and ecological systems, climate change won’t just be harder to deal with, it will actually be more noticeable, and worse.

Not to be outdone, climate researchers at Oxford University offered their own insults this week. Analyzing vehicle use in Scotland, they concluded that top-down efforts to transition society to electric vehicles and phase out vehicle emissions aren’t enough. Without radical changes to lifestyles and increased demand for less harmful transportation systems, the authors say, there’s no chance of hitting the targets set in the Paris climate agreement. …https://thebulletin.org/climate-change-wont-heat-planet-equally11865

June 1, 2018 Posted by | 2 WORLD, climate change | Leave a comment

Japanese Buddhist priest joins movement to divest from fossil fuels and nuclear power

 Lions Roar, BY HALEIGH ATWOOD| 


“Right now the greenery that we have, the earth, the soil — everything is a product of the things that people who have come before us have left behind,” Narita told NBC News. “We can’t just treat those things carelessly.”

June 1, 2018 Posted by | business and costs, climate change, Japan, Religion and ethics | Leave a comment

International governments now realising that waves of climate refugees will be happening

The Coming Wave of Climate Displacement https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/climate-change-global-compacts-migration-refugees-by-kumi-naidoo-2018-05, KUMI NAIDOO

Not since 1951 has the international community produced a treaty to protect the legal status of the world’s refugees. Now, two agreements are currently under discussion at the United Nations, and each offers a rare opportunity to protect global migrants from the biggest source of displacement today.

JOHANNESBURG – Governments around the world are engaged in a series of talks that could fundamentally alter how the movement of people across borders is managed. One dialogue is focused on the protection of refugees; the other on migration.

These discussions, which are being led by the United Nations, will not re sult in legally binding agreements. But the talks themselves are a rare chance to forge consensus on contemporary migration challenges. And, most importantly, they will offer the international community an opportunity to plan for the impact of climate change, which will soon become a key driver of global displacement and migration

At last count, there were some 258 million migrants worldwide, with 22.5 million people registered as refugees by the UN Refugee Agency. These numbers will be dwarfed if even the most modest climate-related predictions are borne out. According to the International Organization for Migration, climate change could displace as many as one billion people by 2050. And yet no international treaty covers climate-induced migration – a gap that must be addressed now.

Not since 1951 have international standards for refugee protection received so much attention. That year, with more than 80 million people displaced after World War II, UN member countries ratified a comprehensive framework to standardize their treatment of refugees. The Global Compact on Refugees that is currently under discussion builds on this framework with strategies to empower refugees and assist host governments. Most significantly, it would commit signatories to protecting “those displaced by natural disasters and climate change.”

The second agreement is even more consequential for the management of climate-induced displacement. There has never been a global treaty governing migration, and past bilateral efforts have focused almost exclusively on violence and conflict as root causes of displacement. The proposed Global Compact for Migration goes beyond these factors, and notes that climate change is among the “adverse drivers and structural factors that compel people to leave their country of origin.”

This type of regulatory language reaffirms what at-risk populations around the world already know: droughts, natural disasters, desertification, crop failure, and many other environmental changes are upending livelihoods and rendering entire communities uninhabitable. In my country, South Africa, a record drought is forcing major cities to consider water rationing. If water shortages persist, migration is certain to follow.

Resource scarcity is particularly dangerous in politically unstable states, where climate change has already been linked to violent conflict and communal upheaval. For example, disputes over fertile land and fresh water fueled the war in Darfur, and even the current crisis in Syria – one of the greatest sources of human displacement today – began after successive droughtspushed Syrians from rural areas into cities. It is not a stretch to predict that climate change will produce more bloodshed in the coming years.

The two UN frameworks could serve as a basis for planning how to manage the coming climate-induced migrations. With scientific modeling to guide decision-making, states could draft orderly, dignified, and equitable relocation strategies. This is certainly a smarter approach than the ad hoc responses to date.

But history tells us that governments are reluctant to seek out collective solutions to forced migration. This failure is visible today in the haunting and inexcusable plight of refugees around the world.

As we enter the final months of the Compact talks, what should we expect of those negotiating the global plan for managing unprecedented movements of people? The causes and consequences of climate change demand close attention. Displaced people must be able to get on with their lives in dignity. The test of world leaders will be whether the global compacts on refugees and migrants can achieve this.

May 28, 2018 Posted by | 2 WORLD, climate change | Leave a comment

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