Global energy demand could peak in 2030s, meanwhile renrewables grid costs offset by other cost reductions
Energy Post 10th Sept 2018 , The global energy transition will lead to a massive expansion of power
lines at all voltage levels as well as a steep growth in the number of
transformers and substations in the electricity system. This is one of the
major new findings of the second edition of the Energy Transition Outlook,
the annual flagship publication of global technical consultancy DNV GL.
As a result, grid costs will triple, yet this cost explosion is offset by cost
reductions in other areas, such as lower costs in the fossil fuels sector.
“The world can afford the transition”, say project leader Sverre Alvik
and lead author Paul Gardner of DNV GL in an interview with Energy Post.
“That’s the good news. But it’s not clear yet how we will make the
necessary investments. How fast we go may depend more on political will
than technology or economics.” Last year, when DNV GL for the first time
presented its Energy Transition Outlook (ETO), it had a surprising story to
tell.
The report came to the unique conclusion that somewhere in the
mid-2030s, for the first time in recorded history, global energy demand
would reach a peak and even decline thereafter. What is important about
this projection is that it comes from an independent source: DNV GL is a
global, “technology-neutral” consultancy who are active across the
entire energy value chain, both in electricity and renewables and in oil
and gas. http://energypost.eu/dnv-gls-energy-transition-outlook-shows-massive-shift-of-investment-from-oil-and-gas-into-power-lines/
Hundreds of world’s leading investors back initiatives to combat climate change
Independent 14th Sept 2018 A group of almost 400 of the world’s leading investors, controlling over $30tn (£23tn) in assets, have agreed to work together to back initiatives to combat climate change and help meet the objectives of the Paris agreement. The group aims to lobby and put pressure on governments around the world to accelerate action to tackle global greenhouse gas emissions.
Investors including the BBC Pensions Trust, Transport for London pensions fund, Aviva, the Environment Agency pension fund, Legal and General, and
the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust are calling on the companies in their portfolios to reduce their carbon footprint, support clean energy, and
strengthen climate-related financial disclosures. The list of organisations who are part of the newly launched “Investor Agenda” includes 279
investors controlling $31tn who had already signed up to the aims of the Climate Action 100+ in agreement with this statement:
“We, the institutional investors that are signatories to this statement, are aware of the risks climate change presents to our portfolios and asset values in
the short, medium and long term. We therefore support the Paris Agreement and the need for the world to transition to a lower carbon economy
consistent with a goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2° Celsius above pre-industrial levels.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change-funding-global-warming-investment-company-investor-agenda-a8536286.html
Massive flow of money into Japanese coal and nuclear power
Among the 151 Japanese financial institutions analyzed in the Energy Finance in Japan 2018study, only 38 of them were not involved with coal or nuclear energy projects. A similar 350.org study from last year shows that Japanese insurance companies represent a large proportion of investors in domestic and international coal industries. Japan’s single biggest investor in coal for the five-year period studied was Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), followed by Nippon Life Insurance (NLI) and Nomura Holdings………..
In the wake of the Fukushima disaster, the government responded swiftly and strongly to public outcry and shut down all 54 of Japan’s nuclear reactors as they awaited new, significantly more rigorous safety standards. Now, more than 7 years later, just a fraction of these nuclear power plants have reopened for business. It was at this point that Japanese officials started looking for new avenues to power the country, and they found what they were looking for in coal.
It’s difficult to say, however, how long-lived the Japanese coal renaissance will be. There is a large amount of opposition to the extremely dirty fossil fuel, with critics urging Japan to reverse its course and return to “greener” pastures. Encapsulating the nation’s ambivalence, at the same time that Japanese financial institutions were still funneling money into coal power development and bonds earlier this year, Japanese banks were also creating stricter financing guidelines to include advanced air-pollution technologies.
In fact even MUFG, mentioned above as Japan’s single biggest investor in coal, has significantly tightened their coal-financing policies this year, along with Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. and Mizuho Financial Group Inc. At the same time NLI, Japan’s biggest insurer in terms of revenue, announced in July that it would no longer grant loans to new coal projects or invest in coal-fired plants, citing environmental reasons, and Dai-Ichi Life Insurance Company announced that it would stop financing overseas coal plants in May.
Some critics, including 350.org, say that these changes, while meaningful, are not nearly significant enough to stem the massive flow of Japanese money into coal, and thereby Japanese pollutants into our atmosphere. It’s still unclear whether these first steps away from coal will have any impact on the many coal projects already underway, and while investment may be now limited to some extent, it’s a far cry from divestment. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/Why-Cant-Japan-Kick-Coal-And-Nuclear.html
Frazer-Nash, engineering consultants, going for new nuclear power in a big way
World Nuclear News 14th Sept 2018 , Consultants Frazer-Nash, in collaboration with Rolls-Royce, the National
Nuclear Laboratory (NNL), EDF Energy, Jacobsen Analytics, Lancaster
University, University of Bristol and University of York are set to deliver
a nuclear safety and security research contract. Frazer-Nash said yesterday
that, working on behalf of the Department of Business, Energy and
Industrial Strategy (BEIS), the GBP3.6 million (USD4.7 million), two-year
project, aims to deliver a “step change in the UK’s capability as the
country moves toward an era of new nuclear build and new technologies”.
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/UK-companies-to-deliver-safety-and-security-resear
Hinkley nuclear deal with union – work will continue in the event of a worker death accident
killed during construction of the Hinkley Point nuclear power plant. The
Enquirer understands that construction workers were encouraged to agree to
the deal last month to protect payouts to the family of any worker who dies
on the project. It goes against standard practice to down tools on site in
the event of a fatality.
http://www.constructionenquirer.com/2018/09/13/hinkley-workers-sign-no-death-stoppage-deal/
New Jersey’s nuclear subsidy means a loss to electricity consumers
Consumers lose in nuclear subsidy plan, New Jersey’s nuclear subsidy idea was a loser from the start. Legislators earlier this year bowed to Public Service Enterprise Group’s insistence on financial help from consumers to keep South Jersey nuclear plants afloat — meaning to make them more profitable — and signed off on a $300 million plan.
Of course, lawmakers told us that the money merely represented a maximum, and that a Board of Public Utilities review would determine how much assistance — if any — the plants would receive. That process began last week, and officials have been tossing around a lot of political-sounding comments about extensive scrutiny of the nuclear applications — as if awards weren’t already essentially a done deal.
In a press release, BPU President Joseph Fiordaliso said the board and its staff take their responsibilities seriously, and will determine whether subsidies are warranted. Yet legislators and the governor have already decided they are; that was the whole argument in favor of the subsidies bill, that the plants wouldn’t stay open without help, that New Jersey needs nuclear power, and that the $300 million figure was an appropriate number to put in place. The final subsidies may not hit that number on the nose, but we can certainly assume they won’t be far off.
It’s also no secret New Jersey consumers will be forced to foot the profitability bill not only for PSEG’s South Jersey plants, but also for nuclear plants in other states that contribute to the PJM Interconnection regional energy grid.
What will those states be doing to benefit us? Nothing, basically…………https://www.northjersey.com/story/opinion/editorials/2018/09/12/editorial-nj-consumers-lose-nuclear-subsidy-plan/1270890002/
environmentalists have maintained that the subsidy bill will prop up an outdated source of power at the expense of wind and solar energy, one more part of the governor’s often confusing, hopscotch approach to satisfying the state’s energy needs. Rival power companies have called the nuclear subsidy unfair to a company that reported $558 million in net income for the first three months of this year. And large power users said the subsidy would drive up costs and discourage innovation.
All of this, however, begs the question: Why couldn’t the amount of the subsidies have been determined before legislators created the pot of cash from which they will be taken? The plants aren’t losing money; they’re just not generating enough profit. PSEG won’t open its books to the public. Yet lawmakers felt compelled to announce to one and all upfront that as much as $300 million might be needed to get the job done. That taints everything moving forward………https://www.northjersey.com/story/opinion/editorials/2018/09/12/editorial-nj-consumers-lose-nuclear-subsidy-plan/1270890002/
Cumbria business chief in a stew over possible abandonment of £15bn Moorside nuclear project
Carlisle News & Star 12th Sept 2018 , Business chief blames Government policy for “frightening off” Moorside
investors. Cumbria Chamber of Commerce boss urges ministers to change tack
to save £15bn project. Rob Johnston, chief executive of Cumbria Chamber of
Commerce, told in-Cumbria that the Government’s use of a regulated asset
base (RAB) model to finance Moorside was a risk of killing the
transformation project. Repeating previous calls for the Government to
invest directly in Moorside to ensure it happens, he placed the blame for
the delays squarely at the door of its Nuclear Sector Deal published back
in June.
http://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/business/Business-chief-blames-Government-policy-for-frightening-off-Moorside-investors-47c201f1-f162-4f96-b702-629bb2ff41a3-ds
Building 12th Sept 2018 , The company behind the £10bn Moorside nuclear power station in Cumbria is
cutting more than 60 of its 100 staff as its parent Toshiba continues its
struggle to sell the company. NuGen was originally a joint venture between
Toshiba and French multinational Engie but ran into trouble last year when
Toshiba’s US subsidiary Westinghouse – which had been due to supply the
nuclear reactor for Moorside – filed for bankruptcy.
Nuclear power uneconomic, investments driven by needs of nuclear weapons industry
Nuclear power is being left behind, industry experts say https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/09/10/nuclear-power-is-being-left-behind-nuclear-industry-experts-say/
This statement, though it sounds like a press release from a renewable energy trade body, or a campaign from an environmental group, is one of the main conclusions of the 2018 edition of the Nuclear Industry Status Report (WNISR), which is published each year by French independent consultant specializing in nuclear energy, Mycle Schneider.
It is said to be based on a third-party-perspective, aimed to open discussion on the sustainable development of nuclear energy and a rational approach to thinking of the nuclear industry at large.
According to the authors, nuclear power will have few chances to compete in the future, if it does not prove to be able to develop commercially available, smaller, factory-assembled, modular reactors, at lower cost, with reliable, passive safety features and, above all, if it is not able to attract private investors; “the prospects of which seem remote,” according to the report.
The share of nuclear in global power production has dropped significantly, from 17.5% in 1996 to 10.3% in 2017. “It is instructive to note that the construction of new nuclear power plants is mostly driven and backed by states, and not by the private sector,” the report further notes. On top of this, most state proponents of nuclear power programs are nuclear weapon states.
Support for nuclear power projects, the document says, is being given by countries that are prepared to offer public support, and often this is facilitated by rent-seeking and corruption. Especially due to their large size (between 1 GW and 1.6 GW), nuclear power facilities are said to be an unviable solution for many African developing countries, the power systems of which are usually small and not equipped to integrate big capacities.
Furthermore, the report highlights that solar and wind saw its share in the global power mix increase by 35% and 17% in 2017, while the growth of nuclear power was of only 1% last year. Only four reactors became operational in 2017, of which three were in China and one in Pakistan, while construction started on another five plants worldwide.
Moreover, the number of facilities under construction has decreased from 68 reactors at the end of 2013, to 50 in 15 countries by mid-2018, of which 16 are in China and 33 are behind schedule, mostly by several years. In China, however, nuclear power generation grew by 18% in 2017, and its share in the country’s power mix climbed from 3.6% in 2016, to 3.9% last year.
Yet, as of mid-2018, 115 units were undergoing decommissioning, although so far, only 19 units have been fully decommissioned: 13 in the U.S., five in Germany, and one in Japan.
But what is really hurting nuclear power, the experts say, is economics. “Auctions resulted in record low prices for onshore wind (<US$20/MWh) offshore wind (<US$45/MWh) and solar (<US$25/MWh), which compares with the “strike price” for the Hinkley Point C Project in the U.K. (US$120/MWh),” the authors of the report wrote.
Total investments in nuclear power for 2017, relating to 4 GW of capacity, totaled just $16 billion, while global investments in wind and solar equaled $100 billion and $160 billion, respectively.
The report also stresses how nuclear power may also be impacted by global warming, as the cooling of the reactors requires large amounts of water, and governments, especially in Europe, are introducing operational restrictions to avoid the excessive heating of rivers. “While in most cases, regulations required to lower the output of the reactors by 10 percent or so, some reactors were shut down, including at least four reactors in France, to deal with the problem,” the report notes.
Although this heating issue is considered secondary, the experts warn that the “malaise” about the uncertain future of the industry remains “deep and disconcerting.”
It is also interesting to note that, writing about France’s nuclear plans, the authors of the document highlight the ambiguity of its state-owned utility, EDF, which “seems to live in a different world,” as its envisages “certain closures” of nuclear reactors only starting 2029, while the French government has clearly said it will reduce the share of nuclear power from around 71% currently, to 50% in 2025. The same EDF, on the other hand, has announced a 30 GW solar planthat is aimed at partly offsetting the loss of this capacity.
As for the Hinkley Point nuclear plant in the U.K., which is also being developed by EDF (although its construction has not started yet) and is expected to sell power at $115–120/MWh under a Contract for Difference (CfD) deal, the report stresses that UK National Audit Office (NAO) has already defined it as “risky and expensive project with uncertain strategic and economic benefit.”
In order to raise funds for the project, EDF announced its intention to sell non-core assets worth $11.4 billion, with the project being finally approved in September 2016. “The constant decline in energy and electricity consumption in the U.K. do not favor the economic case for nuclear new-build,” the report suggests.
Now even the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports a dim view of nuclear energy’s future
New IAEA Energy Projections See Possible Shrinking Role for Nuclear Power, IAEA, 11 Sept 18 Nuclear power’s electricity generating capacity risks shrinking in the coming decades as ageing reactors are retired and the industry struggles with reduced competitiveness, according to a new IAEA report……
Overall, the new projections suggest that nuclear power may struggle to maintain its current place in the world’s energy mix. In the low case to 2030, the projections show nuclear electricity generating capacity falling by more than 10% from a net installed capacity of 392 gigawatts (electrical) (GW(e)) at the end of 2017. In the high case, generating capacity increases 30% to 511 GW(e), a drop of 45 GW(e) from last year’s projection. Longer term, generating capacity declines to 2040 in the low case before rebounding to 2030 levels by mid-century, when nuclear is seen providing 2.8% of global generating capacity compared with 5.7% today……..
The wide range in the projections is also due to the considerable number of reactors scheduled to be retired around 2030 and beyond, particularly in North America and Europe, and whether they will be replaced by new nuclear capacity. ……
Over the short term, the low price of natural gas, the impact of renewable energy sources on electricity prices, and national nuclear policies in several countries following the accident at Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in 2011 are expected to continue weighing on nuclear power’s growth prospects, according to the report. In addition, the nuclear power industry faces increased construction times and costs due to heightened safety requirements, challenges in deploying advanced technologies and other factors……….
Commitments agreed to at the 21st session of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) could also produce a positive impact on nuclear energy development in the future, according to the publication.
Regional Trends……….https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/new-iaea-energy-projections-see-possible-shrinking-role-for-nuclear-power
UK’s Moorside nuclear power project now teeters on the edge of collapse
Plans for new Cumbria nuclear power station on verge of collapse,Toshiba’s plan to sell plant in disarray over government’s ‘risky’ financing plan, Guardian, Adam Vaughan, 11 Sept 18 Plans for a new nuclear power station in Cumbria are on the verge of collapsing after the Toshiba-owned company behind it laid off 60% of its workforce and embarked on a final effort to sell the project.Toshiba was due to sell the NuGen consortium to South Korea state-owned firm Kecpo in early 2018, as the Japanese firm exits international nuclear projects and looks to recoup some of the £400m it has spent on the Moorside plant.
However, Kepco has been delaying a final decision, due in part to the UK government signalling a new approach to financing nuclear power stations.
That forced NuGen to cut 60 of 100 jobs on Tuesday, following a six-week consultation with staff.
Unions said the the project’s problems showed the need for the government to take a stake in Moorside. Justin Bowden, the GMB national secretary, said: “The looming collapse of this vital energy project has been depressingly predictable for months.”
The skeleton NuGen team is now focused on clinching a deal with Kepco by the end of the year before Toshiba writes the unit off entirely at the end of March 2019………..
A team of about 30 government officials is being assembled to work on new nuclear financing, the Guardian understands. The government’s feasibility study on using RAB for new nuclear is expected in January. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/sep/11/toshiba-plans-for-new-cumbria-nuclear-power-station-on-verge-of-collapse
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French government to scrutinise nuclear costs: current European pressurized reactor (EPR) project not economic
Reuters 10th Sept 2018 , France’s state-controlled EDF power utility needs to show a new
generation nuclear reactors work well, which is not for now the case, new
environment minister Francois de Rugy said in remarks published on Monday.
De Rugy signaled that any decision on whether to build more plants using
the European pressurized reactor (EPR) design would be based on economic
factors. The French government is expected to outline in late October a
plan to cut the share of nuclear energy in its electricity production to 50
percent from the current 75 percent, the highest level in the world. It has
already said it could take a decade more to get there than an initial
target of 2025.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-nuclear-edf/edf-must-prove-nuclear-reactors-viable-french-minister-says-idUSKCN1LQ1HB
Despite glut of uranium fuel AREVA – now called Orano, to start a huge new uranium conversion plant
Reuters 11th Sept 2018 , French nuclear group Orano on Monday inaugurated a 1.15 billion euro (1.02
billion pounds)uranium conversion plant despite huge global overcapacity
for nuclear reactor fuel. State-owned Orano’s new plant in Tricastin,
southern France, will account for a quarter of the world’s 60,000-tonne
annual uranium hexafluoride (UF6) production capacity when it fully ramps
up in 2021 and is set to have the industry’s lowest costs, the company
said. UF6, produced by combining “yellowcake” uranium ore concentrate
with fluorine, is a precursor of enriched uranium, which fuels the
world’s nuclear plants. Following the 2011 Fukushima disaster in Japan,
uranium prices are near decade lows as several countries reduced their
reliance on nuclear energy.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-nuclearpower-enrichment/french-orano-opens-uranium-conversion-plant-despite-glut-idUKKCN1LQ2O9
Hinkley Point C and Sea-Level Rise
NuClear News, Sept 18 The Stop Hinkley Campaign wrote to the Office for Nuclear Regulation at the end of July to express increasing concern about the number of reports from climate researchers who believe sea levels could rise by as much as 6 metres as a result of substantial melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets caused by climate change.
Some researchers say sea levels could rise by six metres or more even if the 2 degree target of the Paris accord is met. Sustained warming of one to two degrees in the past has been accompanied by substantial reductions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and sea level rises of at least six metres – several metres higher than what current climate models predict could occur by 2100. (1)
In the light of these recent higher estimates of sea level rise the group wanted to know whether ONR has revisited and perhaps revised its view on the future safety of the Hinkley Point C site. Stop Hinkley was particularly interested to know whether ONR is confident that the site will be suitable for the interim storage of spent fuel until at least the year 2140.
ONR responded by saying that “the primary protection against coastal flooding for HPC is the height of the site platform (14m above sea level). The site characterisation has demonstrated that the platform is not vulnerable to a design basis coastal flood, including reasonably foreseeable climate change. The HPC site licensee (NNB GenCo) will monitor this hazard via Periodic Safety Reviews (including the interim spent fuel store) and if the assumptions in the safety case regarding climate change are shown to no longer be valid; they will be reconsidered. If necessaryy, further preplanned flood protection measures will be put in place through a managed approach.”
The 14m above sea-level makes it sound like quite a large margin. But the Hinkley Point C Stress Test report shows an extreme flooding level of 9.52m (with no waves). Taking into consideration “wave effects” of 2m this gives a margin of 2.48m. (2)
Latest study suggests that rapid melting in Antarctica could begin within the next century, before HPC is decommissioned and before spent fuel is removed. (3) The Antarctic ice sheet contains enough ice to raise sea level by approximately 57 metres (187 feet), about half the length of a soccer pitch. (4) While it is unlikely that enough ice would melt to raise sea-levels by 57 metres, Antarctica is so massive that just a small fraction of this ice melting would be enough to cause huge problems for people and infrastructure on the coast.
ONR says it “maintains a constant review of scientific thinking on climate change, and is guided by relevant good practice. This includes UK and international guidance, UK Climate Projections 09 (UKCP09) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To support efficient and effective regulation, ONR has established an independent expert panel on meteorological hazards to provide advice. ONR’s expert panel is a collection of competent consultants with expertise in this technical area. This panel has provided advice on the HPC external flooding safety case and will continue to provide advice on the potential impacts of climate change.”
“ONR is content that a suitable managed adaptive approach can be adopted, in the event that sea level rise is more than predicted.”
Perhaps the next question to ONR is how long will it take to move 60 years’ worth of spent fuel if the thinking on flood risk and the likelihood of a tsunami were suddenly to become out-dated? http://www.no2nuclearpower.org.uk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/NuClearNewsNo110.pdf
UK’s Moorside nuclear power project on the brink of being abandonment?
Times 8th Sept 2018 , Plans for a new nuclear power station in Cumbria are set to move closer tocollapse next week, with the company developing the Moorside project
expected to confirm that it is laying off the majority of its staff.
throughout August on job cuts among its 100 employees after failing to
secure a buyer. It is understood that it is preparing to sign off on cuts
resulting in the loss of at least 50 jobs.
before the end this year then the venture is likely to be abandoned
altogether. Nugen’s Moorside scheme, neighbouring the Sellafield atomic
waste site on the Cumbrian coast, has been in doubt since early last year,
when financial problems engulfed Toshiba. A sale to Kepco, the South Korean
utility, has stalled amid political change in South Korea and a British
government rethink of the financial support on offer for nuclear plants,
after widespread criticism of the high costs of Hinkley Point.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/staff-layoffs-leave-cumbria-nuclear-plans-on-the-brink-5mfgkcz3j
India’s hopes to become a nuclear export hub
India Can Export Nuclear Power Plants, Economic Times, September 7, 2018
But Westinghouse has had billions of dollars of cost overruns in its nuclear reactors in the US, and stands to gain from joining hands with Nuclear Power Corporation of India (NPCIL) to better manage its project implementation.
The fact is that NPCIL has been able to streamline project implementation with standardised designs and equipment, and is implementing at least 10 new pressurised heavy water reactors (PHWRs) nationally.
In sharp contrast, the US, which is building nuclear plants after a long hiatus, seems to have rather rusty expertise when it comes to construction of nuclear power plants.
There is much potential for export of India’s indigenous PHWRs, and the Joint Statement rightly calls for India’s “immediate accession” to the Nuclear Suppliers Group. …….https://blogs.economictimes.indiatimes.com/et-editorials/india-can-export-nuclear-power-plants/
1 This Month
of the week- – THE ONENESS of HUMANITY
We the Nuclear Free North
1st July – Webinar Waste of Space: The Environmental Harm of Military and Civil Space Activity st July, 7 pm
Report Launch Online: We are seeing an increasing exploitation of space for military and commercial purposes. This must change.
Protect Sazan Island from the Trump family! https://secure.avaaz.org/campaign/en/protect_sazan_island_from_the_trump_family_loc/?bqFCVab&v=174511&cl=22707147157&_checksum=5e9dde668860e8231c33699735e16a1fbf22ab2cb01da50c999fe8732b9775ef&utm_source=email&utm_medium=blast_email&utm_campaign=174511
Cuba Is Not a Failed State – It Is a Besieged State
PETITION: “Global Appeal to Endorse Palestinian Right of Return of Refugees”
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