New UN study assesses radiation exposure from electricity generation technologies with no bias LOL
The fox is looking after the chickens here!
Extract
http://www.unis.unvienna.org/unis/en/pressrels/2017/unisous366.html
8 February 2017
The 2016 Report includes the results of an assessment of the levels of radiation exposure due to different methods of electricity generation (Annex B) using an updated methodology (Annex A). The last such study was published by UNSCEAR in 1993. The Report, which has four scientific annexes (Annex A, B, C, and D) was published today and is available for free download at http://www.unscear.org/unscear/en/publications/2016.html
People also want to compare exposures from generating the same amount of electricity. Thus, the Committee also evaluated radiation exposure per unit of electricity generated, using 2010 as a reference year for comparison. It concluded that the values for the two main electricity generation technologies (coal and nuclear) are about the same in the short term. “Over longer times, such as hundreds of years, an accumulation of very small doses from long-lived radionuclides result in larger collective doses from the nuclear fuel cycle,” said Vanmarcke.
The Committee for the first time also assessed the occupational exposure during the plant construction phase for the various electricity generating technologies. Although this component is smaller than those incurred by miners for coal and uranium as fuel, the highest occupational exposure associated with plant construction for the same amount of installed power is for construction of solar energy plants, followed by wind energy plants. This is because these technologies require larger quantities of rare earth metals and the extraction of the very low-grade minerals needed exposes workers to radiation during the extensive mining operations.
The Committee also recalled the exposures from radiation accidents. “It is difficult to directly compare exposure from accidents (such as those that occurred at Chernobyl, and more recently at the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power station) to those resulting from routine discharges,” said Vanmarcke, “Nevertheless, the Committee reconfirmed that the collective dose to the global population from serious accidents was many orders of magnitude higher than one year’s normal operation of the nuclear cycle.”
While the 2016 Report examines the level of radiation exposure caused by various electricity-generating technologies, its findings cannot alone indicate that any one technology is preferable to another. Countries choose an appropriate mix of technologies based upon a number of factors, which may include radiation exposure.
The 2016 Report (Annexes C and D) also assesses the biological effects of radiation from two internal emitters – tritium and isotopes of uranium, respectively. Internal emitters can be described as radionuclides that have been deposited in body organs and tissues, either via inhalation or by eating. Once in the body, they continue to deliver doses of radiation internally. Doses to organs from these emitters are generally estimated using models that use either environmental or human measurements.
Tritium is a radioactive isotope of hydrogen that occurs both naturally and artificially. It is found mainly as tritiated water in either liquid or vapour form. Exposure of workers results mainly from nuclear reactor operations and other industrial installations. Uranium is a naturally occurring radioactive element that the general public is exposed to due to its widespread presence. Workers are exposed to uranium mainly from mining and from its use as a nuclear fuel. Another area of concern has been the exposure resulting from the use of depleted uranium in munitions.
The 2016 Report concludes that the accumulation of tritium in the organic component of foodstuffs warrants further investigation. It also states that no firm conclusions may be drawn with regard to the carcinogenic effects of tritium. Occupational exposure to various physical and chemical forms of tritium since the middle of the last century varied, from very low to lethal doses. This is why clarification of doses and biological effects of tritium remains topical, especially in the face of the potential dawn of a fusion era. Vanmarcke said: “Tritium exposure in the environment is generally very low, and any effect of such exposure against the background radiation is very small.”
With regard to uranium exposure, the 2016 Report concluded that uranium effects on the kidneys observed in animals and humans are clearly related to the chemical properties of uranium itself. There is no clear demonstration of a causal association between cancer risks and radiological exposure to uranium. It also states that at the present time, no observed health effects in humans can be linked with radiological exposure to depleted uranium.
Fukushima Blues – Is Thyroid Cancer good for you and does it help if you smile?
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Energy Reform in Mexico takes another step forward
Wednesday, February 8, 2017
http://www.energyfuturelatam.net/2017/02/08/energy-reform-in-mexico-takes-another-step-forward/
Despite the heightened tensions between Mexico and the U.S. on account of President Trump’s threats to shut down the movement of goods, people, and investment between the two countries and the effect that the resulting uncertainty has already had on Mexico’s economy, there is good news to report from the energy front. The projects awarded in the two renewable energy auctions carried out in 2016 are moving forward, with one generator signing a PPA with a private consumer, the first under the new rules set forth by the energy reform. It is an indication that the electric energy market is beginning to function outside the sphere of the CFE (Federal Electricity Commission), with long-term contracts that help set reference prices, and more importantly, that provide a predictable payment stream on which projects can be financed. It is worth noting too, that renewable energy is taking the lead and making long-term commitments to increase its share of the market.
Largest solar plant in Mexico
The PPA signed with an unnamed major Mexican industrial group will add 112MW to the 250 MW of solar power already in the works. The group composed of Acciona Energy, who will carry out the EPC, and Tuto Energy, a subsidiary of Biofields Group, was adjudicated the first phase of the project in the second energy auction held by the CFE last September. The plant is located in the State of Sonora and is expected to come online in 2019.
The role of PPAs
The PPA signed by Tuto Energy Trading with private industrial consumers comes at an interesting juncture. CFE has announced yet another electricity price increases for February in the 6.4-8.4% range on top of the 22-35% increase doled out during 2016, and the government recently removed gas subsidies which resulted in a 20% prices hike at the pump. In addition to that, the rapidly falling peso and the lingering uncertainty caused by the Trump administration make pricing difficult, with some costs being priced in dollars while revenues are received in pesos.
It is fair to assume that the PPA recently signed was in the works for some time and is not a direct reaction to recent events, such as the removal of gas subsidies. But it is reasonable to think that industrial users are resorting to long-term contracts to reduce uncertainty in the pricing of their inputs and that renewable energy producers, such as Acciona-Tuto Energy, are offering competitive prices. They are also offering the seal of approval that comes with clean energy, and which many companies are looking to add to their corporate profiles.
Up until now, large consumers had been reluctant to enter long-term PPAs in Mexico. Immediately after the reform the international price of oil collapsed and system prices went down, and given that Mexico has a large reserve margin in the hands of CFE, the advantages of signing on with new generators were not obvious. The circumstances have changed and the promises of the energy reform may be starting to materialize, at least in the electricity sector, in the form of cheaper, cleaner energy for industrial users.
Nuclear Hotseat #294: NO Radiation Spike at Fukushima – Nancy Foust of Simply Info (It’s still bad, but it’s not suddenly worse)
Podcast: Download
This Week’s Featured Interview:
- Nancy Foust of Simply Info sorts out truth from confusion regarding last week’s major media echo chamber on Fukushima radiation levels. Like a pebble can start an avalanche, a mis-translation can and did get blown up into a catastrophe. Step away from the hysteria…
LINKS to the Simply Info articles referenced:
Numnutz of the Week (for Outstanding Nuclear Boneheadeness):
- Leaking radwaste barrels in a van — SO many things wrong with this story, it’s both Numnutz AND DUCK!-and-Cover — a Nuclear Hotseat first!
EASY URGENT ACTIONS:
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JOIN THE WORLDWIDE THUNDERCLAP FOR BANNING NUCLEAR WEAPONS – CLICK HERE. You can sign up to AUTOMATICALLY have the following Tweet sent out on
FEBRUARY 10th @1pm “Nuclear weapons are an urgent threat – now states are starting historic negotiations to ban them in March 2017. Join us! http://thndr.me/jFF5Cw” sponsored by the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN)
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Join your voice with those of the Hibakusha to say “Never Again.”
To sign the petition for a new treaty to ban nuclear weapons, CLICK HERE.
The Missing Links
- European Report links:
- Algonquin Pipeline still planned to be Indian Point-adjacent
- Nuclear Regulatory Commission Kills Study on Cancer Risks to Residents Near Reactors
Featured Image by thierry ehrmann, photographer.
$4M South Carolina nuclear fuel scam case heads to court
- By Meg Kinnard Associated Press
- Feb 7, 2017
COLUMBIA — Two men accused of scamming millions of dollars from a project to turn warheads into nuclear reactor fuel are due in South Carolina federal court later this month.
A pretrial conference is scheduled for Feb. 27 in the wire fraud and conspiracy case against Phillip Thompson and Aaron Vennefron, according to court records.
Prosecutors say the men created more than $4 million in fraudulent invoices for work they claimed to have done on the mixed-oxide fuel facility at the Savannah River Site. The multibillion-dollar project is intended to turn weapons-grade plutonium into commercial nuclear reactor fuel.
Thompson ran a construction labor business that contracted with the company building the facility at the sprawling federal complex along the South Carolina-Georgia border. Vennefron worked for an Ohio hardware store and, in 2009, allegedly created fake invoices, which he then submitted to Thompson’s company.
Government records don’t detail what items were included but said the invoices “appeared to be for legitimate goods needed” for the project that were never actually provided.
A year later, according to prosecutors, Vennefron created a security company “for the sole purpose of submitting false invoices, for non-existent goods,” to Thompson’s company.
The government says the scheme went on for more than five years, until the men were indicted in December 2015. Over the course of that time, the men received more than $4 million in payments from the government, according to prosecutors.
Thompson and Vennefron have pleaded not guilty. They have not filed an official response in court, and their lawyers didn’t immediately return emails seeking comment.
The plant’s mission has been to help the U.S. hold up its end of a disarmament deal with Russia under which each country would dispose of 34 metric tons of weapons-grade plutonium, the equivalent of about 17,000 nuclear warheads.
In October, amid increasingly strained relations between Moscow and Washington, Russian President Vladimir Putin suspended his end of the agreement, citing the “emerging threat to strategic stability as a result of U.S. unfriendly actions” but saying the deal could be restored if the U.S. pulls back forces deployed near Russia’s borders and revokes anti-Russian sanctions.
The alleged fraud scheme is just one of several legal challenges facing the project, which is years behind schedule and billions over budget.
South Carolina has sued the U.S. Energy Department, which is overseeing the project, over fines the state says it is owed because the plant isn’t completed and 1 metric ton of plutonium hasn’t been removed from South Carolina.
In a separate case, the federal government has joined a whistleblower suing a contractor she alleges failed to make sure steel rebar being used for the project met certain standards, then lied to the government about it.
Nuclear waste to travel through Ontario to the U.S.
Environmentalists say they are disappointed with a U.S. court’s decision to ship radioactive waste from Northern Ontario into the United States. The nuclear waste would travel along the QEW and through Niagara. The Niagara region says it is not prepared or equipped to a handle a nuclear spill.
It would travel from the Canadian nuclear laboratories in Chalk River, Ontario, along the 401 and QEW, across the Peace Bridge to a disposal site in Savannah river, South Carolina.
About 23 000 litres of material are to be shipped back to the U.S. as part of an international agreement signed back in 2010. The nuclear material would be shipped in trucks in liquid form, which the U.S. department of energy says poses the same dangers if it were in solid form.
“We are worried about the fruit lands and the people living nearby and who is supposed to come and make sure that if there is an accident that it doesn’t go into our ground water. Can they do that?” Gracia Janes
According to Niagara region, the answer is no.
“We have never talked about a spill of radio active material and we are not prepared to deal with that in an appropriate manner to keep people safe. That is for sure.” Alan Caslin, Niagara region.
The Niagara region filed a motion in 2015 to stop the material but had no success. The regional chair says he couldn’t get a response from governments on either side of the border to his call for a risk assessment and part of his concern is that no information has been provided about the escort or what measures will be put in place to protect the shipment as it makes its way through Ontario’s communities.
The Russian Foreign Ministry commented on the U.S. decision to revise nuclear doctrine
A very worried looking Russian ex politician
A very large nuclear bomb
Moscow hopes that new US nuclear doctrine provides an opportunity dimensionless using this type of weapon. On Tuesday, February 7, reported RIA Novosti source in the Russian foreign Ministry.
According to him, the change of doctrinal settings — it is perfectly normal. “The question is in which direction the current doctrine will be revised,” — said the source.
He reminded that the current concept “envisages the possibility of using nuclear weapons in all cases, when it affects the vital interests of the United States.” “What is it? Nobody knows. It will determine for itself the US administration, no clarity on this point,” said the source.
The absence of criteria, he said, distinguishes the American from the Russian doctrine, which “clearly defines the circumstances in which it is theoretically possible to use nuclear weapons.”
Earlier, on 7 February, the chief of staff of the us air force (USAF), General David Goldfin announced that the United States intends in the spring to revise his doctrine of use of nuclear weapons. “It is time, as with any new administration, to take a fresh look at the nuclear complex, which would have led to the development of strategic policy guidance to the Ministry of defence about where we want to direct the administration”, — quotes its TASS.
The previous version of the doctrine was prepared by the government of President Democrat Barack Obama. Unclassified version of this document Washington released in April 2010. Before that, fragments of the materials were published only twice: when Democrat bill Clinton (he held the presidency from 1993 to 2001 ) and when Republican George W. Bush (2001-2009).
The foreign Ministry commented on the U.S. decision to revise nuclear doctrine
Atomic bomb survivor Dr.Shuntaro Hida speaks on Fukushima and Hiroshima health effects 2016
Atomic bomb survivor Dr.Shuntaro Hida speaks on Fukushima and Hiroshima (Narration by Tatsu Kaneko ). He discusses the largely unreported illness that could be attributed to the nuclear accident
A health survey in Fukushima covered up by the Japanese Media?
Expert urges Japan to act responsibly over Fukishima and recommends strict testing for China imports
China on Monday urged the Japanese government to clarify how they plan to deal with the impact of the deadly levels of radioactivity that have been detected inside the damaged Fukushima nuclear plant.
A Chinese expert also warned not to eat seafood caught from waters near the site due to possible organ failure.
Foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang told a press briefing on Monday that China had been watching closely the repercussions of the Fukushima nuclear leakage accident and the ministry had issued relevant safety alerts.
“[The Chinese side] has been asking the Japanese government to properly handle the accident and follow-up matters in a timely fashion,” Lu said, adding that “any responsible government will pay continuous and high attention to the impact of the nuclear leakage on the marine environment, food safety and people’s health.”
Lu added that it is Japanese government’s obligation to not only the Japanese people, but also to people from the rest of the world, its neighbors included.
Gui Liming, a professor at the Department of Engineering Physics with Tsinghua University, warned that seafood which was caught from the radiated waters and illegally imported still pose a threat to Chinese people’s health.
Customs authorities in Qingdao, East China’s Shandong Province, detained 14 people in August 2016 for smuggling frozen seafood from Japan, including irradiated high-end seafood from waters near Fukushima prefecture, China Central Television reported.
“We need to closely inspect every product to single out the radiated ones, which was not part of the usual routine of customs before,” Gui said.
Radiation levels from melted fuel inside the containment vessel of reactor No.2 at the crippled Fukushima No.1 power plant have reached a maximum of 530 sieverts per hour, the highest since the triple core meltdown in March 2011, The Japan Times reported Friday, citing Tokyo Electric Power Co. Holdings Inc. (Tepco).
At 530 sieverts, a person could die from even brief exposure.
The Japan Times said Monday that Tepco will place a robot inside the reactor to further investigate the radiation levels. No radiation has leaked outside, Tepco said.
However, Gui pointed out that the high radiation level will affect the optical system of the robot, making it difficult for it to observe and collect data. It is also very difficult to control the robot in such an environment, Gui added.
http://english.sina.com/china/d/2017-02-08/detail-ifyafenm3023857.shtml
Gallucci says he advised N. Korea not to greet new US president with nuclear, missile tests
A former chief US nuclear negotiator with North Korea said he advised diplomats from Pyongyang to refrain from greeting a new US administration with nuclear or missile tests when he met with them in Malaysia in October.
Robert Gallucci, who negotiated a now-defunct 1994 nuclear freeze deal with the North, held meetings in Kuala Lumpur on October 21-22 with senior diplomats from North Korea, including vice Foreign minister Han Song-ryol and deputy UN Ambassador Jang Il-hun.
“When I met North Korean representatives for Track II discussions in Kuala Lumpur, I took the opportunity to advise them that they should avoid greeting a new American administration with new nuclear or ballistic missile tests, or any aggressive moves towards the US or its allies,” Gallucci said.
“I suggested that whomever the next president turned out to be, they would not appreciate such a greeting and would undoubtedly respond with appropriate vigor and certainly not with an inclination to negotiate any time soon,” he said in a statement prepared for a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing set for Tuesday.
In response, the North Korean diplomats said the communist nation “would have a similar reaction if a new American administration immediately launched new sanctions or made provocative moves in the context of joint military exercises,” Gallucci said.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said in his New Year’s Day address that the country has entered the final stage of preparations to test-fire an intercontinental ballistic missile, an apparent threat that the North is close to developing a nuclear-tipped missile capable of striking the continental US
The North then placed two ICBMs on mobile launchers for apparent test-firing, but later put those missiles back into hiding, a sign that the regime might have opted to wait out until the administration of President Donald Trump puts together its North Korea policy.
Trump, in response to the North Korean leader’s threat, vowed to stop the North from mastering such ICBM capabilities, saying that the North’s development of a nuclear missile capable of striking the US “won’t happen,” though he didn’t elaborate on how he would stop it.
Gallucci said that the US should not seek anything short of North Korea’s complete denuclearisation, voicing concern that too many analysts are now arguing that all the US needs is to stop the North Korean nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programmes from growing.
Seeking such a freeze is “unrealistic and dangerous,” he said.
Entering into negotiations with the North without the US declaring its goal of a non-nuclear North Korea would “appear to have the United States legitimise the North’s nuclear weapons status, and thus increase the likelihood that before too long South Korea and then Japan would follow suit,” Gallucci said.
He also called for making improvement in the North’s human rights record a key element of negotiations.
“It may be counterintuitive to see adding human rights to the agenda as increasing the likelihood of accomplishing our security objectives, but things have changed since we did the deal with the DPRK a quarter century ago,” he said, stressing that improvement in the North’s human rights situation is crucial in improving relations between Washington and Pyongyang.
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2017/02/07/52/0401000000AEN20170207000400315F.html
UK Construction industry ‘heavily dependent on nuclear plants and HS2 rail project’ Another tax bailout imminent?
The sector is set to grow over the next five years, creating 179,000 jobs, as long as the Hinkley Point C and Wylfa Newydd nuclear power stations and High Speed 2 rail project go ahead, said the Construction Industry Training Board (CITB).
Its forecast for growth and jobs is “significantly” down on a year ago, although the group predicted many job opportunities for electricians, carpenters and technical workers.
Steve Radley, of the CITB, said: “We expect construction to keep defying the economic headwinds, with almost half of its growth coming from Hinkley, HS2 and Wylfa and other infrastructure projects.
“These huge projects give our industry a great chance to seize the initiative on skills and start investing in the next generation and upskilling the current one.
“So it’s vital that we don’t throw this opportunity away by allowing these projects to slip or get squeezed together and worsen the pressure on key skills.”
Trident whistleblower calls out MoD’s ‘lame attempt’ to excuse nuke malfunctions
McNeilly was thrown out of the navy in 2015 after publishing a dossier of potentially catastrophic security and safety issues relating to Britain’s nuclear deterrent.
After reports in January this year of a failed 2016 missile test, which saw senior government figures accused of lying, McNeilly told RT that he himself had been witness to a number of serious mishaps during a Trident patrol a year earlier.
The 2016 test saw a missile which was supposed to be aimed in the direction of Africa veer toward Florida due to an internal systems failure.
The MoD responded to the former weapons engineer’s comments to RT by telling the Independent newspaper: “McNeilly’s claims, from his brief serving time before being discharged, have proved to be factually incorrect, demonstrate a lack of understanding or drew on historic, previously known, events.
“We have absolute confidence in the nuclear deterrent,” they insisted.
The Independent specifically referred to McNeilly’s “claims that there were four unreported Trident missile test failures in 2015…”
McNeilly responded Monday, telling RT: “I have never stated that there were four failed missile launches.
“The Trident report and the information I gave RT made it clear that I was talking about missile tests.”
McNeilly pointed out he had served on a nuclear missile patrol, including on watches in the command center.
“There are multiple missile tests conducted every patrol,” he said.
“The MoD has tried to downplay the information in the Trident report by claiming that I said things that I have never said.”
The truth of the matter, he insisted, was that “I have never said I witnessed four failed missile launches… that is a lame attempt to discredit me and the Trident report by fabricating nonsense.”
Smog chokes coal-addicted Poland
The soupy grey smog shrouding Polish cities this winter is one of the most visible symptoms of the EU member’s addiction to coal, a deadly habit forcing many to stay indoors or don masks before venturing out.
Professor Anna Doboszynska, a respected specialist with more than two decades of experience treating lung disease, doesn’t minces her words when talking about the health risks it poses.
“During periods of smog, more people with respiratory and circulatory illnesses actually die,” she told AFP after examining an asthma patient wheezing heavily amid a spike in pollution in Warsaw.
“Children, pregnant women and the elderly are most at risk from smog, which damages the respiratory tract much in the same way smoking does.
“A child playing outside in the smog is smoking cigarettes, it’s the same thing,” she told AFP.
Poland’s coal addiction exacts heavy health, economic tollThe thick, grey layer of smog blanketing Poland’s southern city of Krakow is one of the most visible symptoms of the EU member’s addiction to coal, a habit experts warn is both economically risky and deadly. |
One Warsaw hospital reported a 50% spike in patients over several days of intense smog during a windless cold snap in January.
As anti-smog masks sold out across Poland this week, Warsaw issued them to police officers on duty across the capital.
A study published last year by the European Environmental Agency (EEA) blamed air pollution – caused in large part by the burning of coal – for an estimated 50,000 premature deaths per year in the country of 38 million people.
Seventy percent of Polish households burn low-quality coal or rubbish in old stoves for heat and antiquated coal-fired power plants generate nearly all of Poland’s electricity, giving it some of the dirtiest air in the EU.
The EEA also blames so-called “low-stack” emissions from old household stoves for countless cases of respiratory illness.
The AirVisuals website regularly lists Warsaw, Katowice or Krakow among the world’s top ten most polluted cities alongside Beijing or New Delhi.
The true cost of coal in PolandPoland appears to be the only country that wants the UN Climate Change Conference aimed at putting a legally binding cap on global warming to end in failure, writes Anna Dubowik. |
‘Government inaction’
Karolina, a Warsaw mother of three who did not wish to reveal her surname, says checking mobile phone apps for smog levels and wearing masks have become part of her family’s daily routine.
“My son’s had pneumonia twice within the last 10 months and my daughter was sick all October and November. But, of course, nobody’s blaming smog, even though we live in an area of Warsaw where there’s chronic air pollution,” she told AFP.
“What scares me the most is the total lack of information and government inaction.
“There are days on end when the smog is so bad that school and kindergarten should be closed, but nothing is being done.”
Polish pollution akin to smoking 4,000 cigarettes a yearAir pollution made headlines in Poland this week but the issue was not the only thing to worry Poles, as lack of transparency and corruption in government once again reared their heads. EurActiv Poland reports. |
Authorities in Poland only alert the public when air pollution exceeds the EU-wide norm by a whopping 600%, according to Piotr Siergiej, an activist with anti-smog NGO Alarm Smogowy.
The EU limit for exposure to fine air pollutants known as PM 10 particles is 50 microgrammes per cubic metre per day.
“In Paris, authorities announce smog alerts and take action when pollution exceeds 80 microgrammes per cubic metre per day,” Siergiej told AFP.
“In Poland, the alert level is 300 microgrammes,” he added, slamming the measure as a “health hazard”.
Poland’s environment ministry recently rejected a request by his group for smog alerts – when children, the ill and the elderly are advised to stay indoors – to be issued automatically when pollution levels spike to twice the EU-wide norm.
Instead, the government, led by the rightwing Law and Justice (PiS) party, has vowed to ban low-quality coal and limit sales of the worst-polluting home furnaces over the next three months.
Poland to seek EU approval for state aid to coal minesPoland is to notify the European Commission this month of plans to give state aid to some loss-making coal mines, Polish news agency PAP said, quoting the country’s minister in charge of restructuring the industry. |
Renewable energy?
A report issued last month by the International Energy Agency identified air pollution as “one of the largest environmental health risks” facing Poles.
It also urged Warsaw to rethink its dependence on coal and focus instead on developing cleaner energy sources.
According to the IEA, coal accounted for 81% of Poland’s electricity generation in 2015 and the heavily indebted coal-mining sector – one of Europe’s largest – provided more than 100,000 politically sensitive jobs.
The rightwing government of Beata Szydło, the daughter of a coalminer, has long insisted that plentiful domestic coal is key to Poland’s energy security.
Her administration has also set tough regulations on the installation of wind turbines, in effect blocking competition from the renewables sector, which in 2014 covered about 10% of national energy needs.
The IEA concluded that “the future of renewable energy in Poland looks uncertain”, dimming hope for cleaner air anytime soon.
[Robert Park ] Amnesty for NK officials Kim’s strategic nightmare
My Jan. 9 article addressed the anti-human inanity a preventive (aka preemptive) strike on northern nuclear facilities would represent. Synopsis: the scheme should be deemed a nonstarter as intelligence on the North’s weapons isn’t authoritative, qualifying nuclear retaliation via unexposed arsenals as a credible outcome. Such a move may breach international law, and wouldn’t be considered valid by China — thus setting the stage for another war.
Former US Secretary of Defense William Perry warned against the preemptive strike idea in a Jan. 6 op-ed, writing “Today a war would be no less than catastrophic, possibly destroying the societies of both Koreas.” He stressed Kim doesn’t possess the “objective of achieving martyrdom” and is “not suicidal,” reminding he’d never “launch an unprovoked attack on the United States.”
Perry declined undertaking a preemptive strike as defense secretary, and realized quickly that “Such a strike could still destroy the facilities at Yongbyon but probably would not destroy their nuclear weapons, likely not located there.”
Ominously, he put forth that “a second Korean War, far more devastating than the first” could be on the horizon unless North Korea’s “quest for a nuclear ICBM” is halted. However, I would caution against the use of aforesaid rhetoric; Korea’s small population lost some 5 million — primarily noncombatants — in the 1950-53 war, to allow for them to sacrifice a greater number of their people under any circumstances or by any stretch of the imagination is unacceptable.
Moreover, there’s a potentiality the “preemptive” attack would fortify Kim Jong-un’s grip on power rather than undermine him. After millions died, Kim could easily exploit the bloodbath to fuel inflammatory propaganda, as “proof” of an external threat against “the survival of the North Korean people.” Conforming to this scenario, he’d muster domestic support on such scale impossible before the strike — ensuring regime durability for generations.
All the more, PRC authorities would adopt a renewed policy undergirding Kim’s rule in the wake of such attack, thereafter guarding the regime’s continuity for their national security interests at all costs — vastly more unequivocally than previously.
Hence, the “preemptive strike” can bestow upon Kim a degree of “legitimacy” heretofore inaccessible, while undoing hard-won gains in the protracted struggle to uncloak — within the perception of the people — an altogether illegitimate, criminal and genocidal despotism.
A far more rational method — indeed, Kim Jong-un’s worst nightmare scenario — would be a vigorously-implemented policy of conditional South Korean amnesty toward senior North Korean officials and the northern military.
As reported by the Chosun Ilbo on Dec. 20 respecting the post-defection remarks of Thae Yong-ho:
“… The absence of a second-in-command in the North opens up the chance of reunification ‘if something happens to’ leader Kim Jong-un. … What scares the regime most is that the elite could defect en masse … Seoul should … find ways of reassuring them that they can come to South Korea.”
Since escaping, Thae has admonished repeatedly that “Kim Jong-un will never give up nuclear weapons” under any terms, as have many others. Yet he also has said that internal dissatisfaction with Kim Jong-un is sweeping and, consequently, his dominance has reached its limit.
On a South Korean program on Jan. 3, Thae proclaimed, “We should collapse the Kim Jong-un regime by causing an internal revolt. … I am 100 percent sure we can do it. … The South Korean government and people should enlighten North Korean citizens to make them stand against Kim Jong-un’s reign of terror.”
Nevertheless, if South Korea does not take heed of the situation, continues in limbo and renders itself powerless to respond, we could end up with a “bloodbath,” perennial division and the consolidation of Kim’s totalitarianism for his entire lifespan; with those who remain living in the long shadow of war — in which a people can never truly be free.
Twenty-five million leaflets extending provisory amnesty disseminated throughout the north forthwith could spell the end of Kim’s oppression. It would be imperative for the operation to be backed up by significant covert humanitarian gestures — such as aiding defections and assisting persons and communities in obtaining subsistence through non-official avenues — and corresponding surreptitious consultations to form alliances with as many officials in and from the north as achievable. Likewise, all modes of communication into the north such as clandestine radio broadcasts should be strategically employed.
Only recently, Thae was held to be among Kim’s staunchest adherents, so trusted he was a personal escort for Kim Jong-chul — Jong-un’s brother — to a London concert. Nearly overnight, he metamorphosed into one of the most vocal and uncompromising opponents of Kim’s tyranny — and parallel sheer reversals are wholly conceivable for other North Korean elites including those who, just as the late Jang Song-thaek did, surround Kim today.
South Korean amnesty should be contingent upon two factors: 1) The cessation of all human rights violations — most explicitly those in the prison camps — as a core, overarching objective and 2) opposing the person of Kim Jong-un.
Several amnesty recipients might have committed — upon the Kim dynasty’s decrees — the most heinous atrocities; howbeit there are numerous cases where former camp guards and North Korean military elites who participated in aforementioned crimes have been comprehensively reformed and integrated into South Korean society, even befriending one-time captives and speaking alongside them at international human rights conferences. Dismantling the genocidal system necessitates this — amnesty is unmistakably integral to disarming Kim Jong-un, freeing the North’s brutally mistreated people and reunifying the Korean Peninsula.
In view of geopolitical actualities, unification by virtue of this framework must take place solely between Koreans themselves. After Kim’s capture, it is critical that those who staged the deed have a direct channel of communication to South Korean authorities — as allies. Akin to the global intelligence vacuum which prevailed in the immediate aftermath of Kim Jong-il’s death, outside countries and media shouldn’t be informed of the shift until officially proclaimed — this time, of course, by South Korea as a unified, single and advisably independent country.
A universally acknowledged principle among North Koreans is that money reliably “answers everything.” With a relatively marginal amount of cash (or cigarettes and other commonplace items) a tremendous deal can be achieved — including the release of prisoners. No one is beyond bribes — counting those who operate prison camps or oversee nuclear development. At this juncture, virtually all want out and none feel unthreatened. A chance at life, mended families, freedom and long-term basic security is what the populace yearns for, much more than any fleeting hand-out — provisory amnesty would assuage fears of retribution and thereupon inspire mass cooperation with South Korea all through the north, stopping Kim’s killing spree and nuclear blackmail determinately.
By Robert Park
Robert Park is a founding member of the nonpartisan Worldwide Coalition to Stop Genocide in North Korea, minister, musician and former prisoner of conscience. — Ed.
Inspectors Find Safety Flaws Remain a Concern at French Nuclear Supplier
Letter says Areva hasn’t analyzed why a coverup went undetected and can’t guarantee it won’t happen again
Updated Feb. 6, 2017 2:45 p.m. ET
PARIS—A team of international inspectors described extensive management weaknesses at a key supplier for the global nuclear power industry, finding that safety failings are still a worry months after investigators revealed a decades long coverup of manufacturing problems at a French factory owned by the supplier.
In a letter sent to the supplier, Areva SA, late last month, the inspectors noted that the French company had neither analyzed why the coverup had gone undetected for years, nor could guarantee that similar… [Paywall]
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