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BRITAIN HAS DISINCENTIVISED ZELENSKY FROM SUING FOR PEACE

Ukraine wants to stop and re-stock before resuming war with western help.

UK STATE VISIT INVITATION TO ZELENSKY A CONSIDERED ATTEMPT TO SCUPPER US-BROKERED DJPLOMACY

Ian Proud, 12 Nov 26, https://thepeacemonger.substack.com/p/britain-has-disincentivised-zelensky?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=3221990&post_id=224572014&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1ise1&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

With impeccable timing, on the eve of US-brokered peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi, the United Kingdom has invited President Volodymyr Zelensky to the UK in 2027 for a full State Visit. This will undoubtedly disincentivise Zelensky from suing for peace. Little surprise that the Abu Dhabi talks delivered nothing concrete beyond agreement on another prisoner swap. In Dublin, Zelensky has doubled down on not making any concessions in the negotiations.

It’s clear to me that the British state has priced in Zelensky still being President of Ukraine for the next year and, therefore, there being no peace deal with Russia.

Why do I take this view? We do not know when a State Visit to Britain might take place but the media reports suggest that it could be as late as November 2027 when Britain will host the G20 Summit in Manchester. Ukraine isn’t a G20 member, but, again, it is understood that Zelensky has been invited to attend in any case.

While the peace process for Ukraine has been stop-start, it’s not inconceivable that the latest initiative delivers a draft peace treaty within a matter of a few short months. The draft Istanbul Peace deal in April 2022 was initialled after a mere five weeks of intensive talks. Boris Johnson famously discouraged Zelensky from taking that deal at the time Had the peace process not fallen apart, Presidents Putin and Zelensky might have met to sign the draft and implement the peace.

The idea of Zelensky and Putin meeting to sign any peace deal has cropped up increasingly in recent weeks as the prospects of renewed peace talks loomed larger. From the Russian perspective, a meeting won’t happen until such time as there is a worked up draft peace treaty is ready to discuss. But the point is that any possible future meeting will serve the purpose of hammering through any outstanding issues in the peace Treaty that cannot be resolved by officials leading, possibly, to signature and a cessation of the fighting.

Let’s imagine for a moment that a peace deal is inked in early 2027, that would happen right in the middle of planning for Zelensky’s State Visit. Having organised the visit to Britain in 2002 of the President of Indonesia at that time – I know that planning for a State Visit would not happen if there was any doubt about whether Zelensky would still be in office.

And yet, if the latest round of talks in Abu Dhabi did, ultimately deliver a substantive peace deal and an end to the fighting, Presidential elections in Ukraine would soon follow. We cannot know now who will win a future plebiscite but the polling suggests that Zelensky will not win. Indeed, half of Ukrainians say that he should not even run in a future contest.

And here, I fear, the cunning Brits have announced a Zelensky State Visit on the eve of peace talks; because they don’t see those elections happening any time soon. Neither do they see the war ending on terms imposed by Washington. This appears, at least to me, to be a blatant and cynical move by Britain to derail Trump’s peace efforts.

The Brits have acted as major spoilers of US efforts to end the Ukraine war from the start. Against the backdrop of a generally troubled relationship between the Labour government and President Trump, Keir Starmer’s ‘coalition of the willing idea’ in which Britain and France would send troops to Ukraine – was seen by many as an attempt to stall US peace overtures. It’s obvious today that European leaders are not enthused by Trump’s ‘big beautiful’ plan to overhaul Europe’s security architecture as part of a peace deal. Zelensky has been adept at playing the US Administration off against the Brits and Europeans who has vastly different views on the prosecution of the war.

Just last week the former Prime Minister of Ukraine, Arseniy Yatseniuk – made famous by Victoria Nuland’s leaked ‘Yats the guy’ phone call in February 2014 – was at Chatham House in London talking about conditions for Ukraine to sign a peace deal. Those conditions included no cap on Ukraine’s military, western support in helping Ukraine built up its long-range missile capabilities and produce ‘much more ammo’. All this so that, in his works, Ukraine could ‘liberate an entire territory’ occupied by Russia in the future. I am afraid to say that these are terms of a peace settlement that Russia will never agree to, on the basis that they are an explicit admission that Ukraine wants to stop and re-stock before resuming war with western help. As I have said before, a genuine peace for Ukraine requires several interlocking deals to avoid pressing the pause button.

The enthusiastic reception Yatseniuk received at Chatham House is a reminder that the default UK setting remains in defeat Russia mode. To paraphrase Victoria Nuland, officials in the Foreign Office see Zelensky as ‘the guy’, irrespective of the various corruption scandals swirling around his team.

So the red carpet is royally being laid out for President Zelensky to pay a State Visit to the UK. Let’s not forget the massive importance Britain attached to the unprecedented second State Visit of Donald Trump in September 2025 at a time of strain in the bilateral relationship. While State Visits are upon the invitation of the King, they are proposed by the Foreign Office. I fear the current UK Ambassador to Kyiv – Neil Crompton – who solidified the current UK strategy of non-engagement with Russia when he was the Eastern Europe Director for a brief while starting in late 2014, is the brains behind this cunning plan.

State Visits are by far the biggest honour Britain can extend a foreign Head of State and his Majesty the King hosts a maximum of two state visits in any year because of the enormous preparation that is required. Zelensky will be processed along the Mall in a State Carraige with mounted Horseguards in their gleaming armour, before staying at Buckingham Palace with the King and being treated to a White Tie banquet (big question over what he would wear).

Just ask yourself, if you were in Zelensky’s shoes, would you go for a peace deal with Russia and a significant chance of losing political office at elections, or revelling in the pomp, pageantry and crowd adoration of a State Visit to London? Call me weak, but I know what I’d do.

November 14, 2026 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | politics international, UK, Ukraine