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“Everybody Hates Merz”: Why Germany’s Ukraine Obsession Is Making Germans Poorer

A conversation with Dr Tarik Cyril Amar

Ian Proud, Nov 10, 20261 https://thepeacemonger.substack.com/p/everybody-hates-merz-why-germanys?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=3221990&post_id=224275043&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1ise1&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

In a wide-ranging conversation on The Peacemonger, historian and political commentator Tarik Cyril Amar offered a stark assessment of Germany under Chancellor Friedrich Merz. According to Amar, Merz has managed to unite the country in one respect: near-universal dislike. The discussion explored how Merz’s leadership, the German elite’s deep commitment to the war in Ukraine, and the resulting economic pressures are reshaping German politics.

The Most Unpopular Chancellor in Years

Amar argued that Merz has become unusually unpopular, even by the standards of recent German leaders. He described Merz as a mediocrity who once benefited from a reputation for intelligence that has since collapsed in office. Unlike figures who polarise opinion, Merz appears to be disliked across large parts of the political spectrum. Amar compared the situation to the later stages of Keir Starmer’s premiership in Britain and Emmanuel Macron’s in France — leaders who clung to power long after their political capital had evaporated.

One reason Merz remains in office, Amar suggested, is institutional dysfunction. He pointed to widespread claims of significant miscounts in the last federal election that prevented the BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht) from entering parliament. Had the BSW crossed the threshold, the current coalition would have lost its majority. Amar argued that the Constitutional Court’s reluctance to order a recount has allowed a government based on a contested result to continue. At the same time, internal rebellion within the CDU has been held back by the absence of anyone willing to take over in the current political climate.

The Ukraine Obsession and Its Domestic Cost

A central theme of the conversation was Germany’s substantial financial commitment to Ukraine. Amar noted that Germany has transferred well over €100 billion, a figure that continues to rise. He criticised the claim — made by Merz himself — that money spent on Ukraine is not lost to domestic priorities, arguing that money is fungible and that the economic consequences are already visible in higher energy costs, industrial strain, and declining living standards. Amar described the German establishment (across the CDU, SPD, and Greens) as psychologically invested in the Ukraine policy, making a strategic reversal difficult even as the costs mount.

Nuclear Risks and Strategic Blindness

The discussion also touched on nuclear dangers. Amar warned against proposals for “European” nuclear weapons, suggesting that in German political tradition such ideas have often served as a way to regain greater strategic agency under a European label. He referenced comments by Russian analyst Sergey Karaganov about potential nuclear strikes on German cities, while emphasising that Russian leadership has so far shown notable restraint. Amar argued that the refusal in much of Western Europe to engage seriously with Russian security concerns has increased the risk of miscalculation.

Gaza, Historical Guilt, and Elite Detachment

Turning to the Middle East, Amar examined Germany’s strong support for Israel. While acknowledging the historical weight of the Holocaust, he argued that current policy is driven less by genuine atonement than by a combination of alliance politics, arms industry interests, and institutional inertia. He noted that public opinion in Germany is somewhat more critical than elite opinion, but that dissent is often marginalised or suppressed. The broader picture, he concluded, is one of growing distance between the German establishment and large sections of the population.

A Bleak Outlook

Amar’s overall assessment was sombre. He sees the current trajectory as unsustainable and expects further political realignment, including the possibility of the AfD becoming the dominant force on the right. Whether that produces better policy remains an open question. What is clear, in his view, is that the combination of elite detachment, economic pressure, and strategic overcommitment is eroding public trust.

The full conversation covers these issues in greater depth, along with Amar’s views on specific German ministers, the role of the media, and the prospects for political change.

November 12, 2026 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | Germany, politics