Xi in Washington: A Test of Strategic Stability

The reciprocal visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Washington is a logical topic for analysis following their historic meeting in May. Many assess its importance as historic, more because of the dramatic moment in which it took place than because of its concrete results. Nevertheless, following the scandalous address by US President Donald Trump from the podium of the UN General Assembly, every analyst also faces a moral and principled dilemma: can this leader be trusted? The speech contained at least four flagrant violations of the UN Charter, but who knows how many more in the context of human rights. One way to overcome the shock, and then the enormous difference between the two leaders, is to say that “Trump has his own style” (and nobody can stop him from that, however much it may create a feeling of revulsion). The second observation would be that, from that podium, leaders most often address their domestic audience rather than the world. Trump is a president with enormous domestic problems: low public support, economic pressures and military ventures that show more the weakness of the military giant than its superiority. He is also facing a very important electoral test at the beginning of November, when support in Congress will be measured.

On the other hand, the guest arrived without the need to address his own public from some distant country, nor to show his muscles or successes. China’s achievements speak for themselves. And day by day, the gap between the two economies, their technological, industrial, energy and other development, is only deepening.

Some analysts wondered why Xi did not address the UN in New York, but instead chose to visit only the White House (at the UN, his vice-president spoke). But the message is clear: first, the two countries have many things to discuss, and it is no exaggeration to say that world peace and security depend on their mutual relationship and understanding. Just as a person cannot choose their parents or the place where they are born, states are also forced to coexist, even when some members of the community break all the rules of morality, decency and honour. As ordinary people, we can choose our company and our friends, but statesmen (especially wise ones) do not have that luxury. Their greatest attention is directed precisely towards points of escalation and growing differences. Therefore, although it sounds paradoxical, coexistence and communication are most important when the world is facing a deep crisis and needs to find a way out. This is particularly true when the (until recently) hegemon is falling apart both internally and externally; then it is at its most dangerous and unpredictable (which does not necessarily have anything to do with the personality of the current president, who is a story in himself).

The formula on which the leaders of the two largest economies extended their hands to each other in Beijing, let us recall, is: constructive strategic stability. Although I have written about this on several occasions, it is necessary to stress again that this formula contains the wisdom of not allowing the boat to rock more than is inevitable, of managing crises step by step, issue by issue, or at least maintaining communication — because the alternative is apocalyptic. This is precisely the message from Xi about avoiding the Thucydides Trap (mentioned both in Beijing and Washington), that is, finding a way for the two sides to respect their differences, to be aware of potential clashes, but to work continuously (and constructively) to avoid an outcome that for one side would amount to a major defeat. He defined it masterfully as relations of “healthy competition, proper management of differences through seeking common ground while respecting differences, and building peace by nurturing mutual trust, so that constructive China-US relations of strategic stability can be of greater benefit to both peoples, as well as to peoples around the world”. Stability (in this formula) does not mean permanence and immutability of the present state of affairs, but careful resolution of problems through the building of relations in which there are neither winners nor humiliated losers………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. https://biljanavankovska.substack.com/p/xi-in-washington-a-test-of-strategic?r=4ds0bd&utm_medium=ios