European countries split on Macron’s nuclear deterrence offer

Questions remain over how it would complement the US nuclear umbrella

Defence Charles Cohen/Pietro Guastamacchia , Euractiv, 5 June26, https://www.euractiv.com/news/macrons-advanced-nuclear-deterrence-gains-supporters-but-questions-remains/

France’s offer to extend its nuclear deterrence has so far seduced nine European countries, but the benefits the scheme would provide on top of the US nuclear umbrella remain unclear to others.

Last week, Norway, which has long believed its security was best ensured through ⁠close alignment with Washington, announced it would join France’s ‘forward deterrence’ initiative, joining eight other countries: Germany, the Netherlands, Greece, Belgium, Poland, Sweden, Denmark and the United Kingdom.

This shift sends a very strong signal to both European allies and Washington, Etienne Marcuz, a senior analyst on strategic armaments at the Foundation for Strategic Research, told Euractiv, adding that it could encourage other countries in the region to follow suit.

Eastern flank

Neighbouring Finland, which shares a 1,340-km border with Russia, is also assessing whether to take part in the initiative, Defence Minister Antti Häkkänen said last week.

“The 2022 invasion (of Ukraine by Russia) generated a sense of vulnerability, particularly in terms of being potentially susceptible to nuclear coercion. Now Finland considers nuclear deterrence legitimate,” Matti Pesu, a senior research fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, said.

The Baltic countries have been particularly exposed to Russia’s hybrid attacks, with Ukrainian drones veering off course by electronic warfare crashing into their territory. Such incidents have prompted the collapse of the Latvian government. So far, the three countries have not publicly expressed interest in taking up France’s offer.

According to Marcuz, if all Nordic countries joined, this would provide new corridors from which to hit Russia, especially through the Arctic.

“An entire part of the Russian flank would be vulnerable,” he said.

But such decisions could take time, amid reports that Washington is debating extending its deployment of nuclear weapons in Europe to Poland and the Baltic states.

“The US is putting pressure on Europeans, so they don’t distance themselves from their nuclear dependency,” Marcuz noted. “The fundamental lever of US influence in Europe is the nuclear weapon,” he added.

Macron’s deterrence is not a nuclear umbrella

Emmanuel Macron unveiled the concept of ‘forward deterrence’ last March during a long-awaited revision of France’s nuclear doctrine.

“It enables French nuclear deterrence to deploy French forces abroad, either in peacetime for strategic signalling or in wartime to disperse and to be able to spread out across the European space,” Marcuz said.

“There is no explicit security guarantee,” he added, one of the key differences with American deterrence in Europe.

Instead, the French president said in his Ile Longue speech that the territories of partner countries would have an “affirmed bond” with France’s deterrence.

For Marcuz, the term is strategically ambiguous so as to avoid clearly laying out France’s ambitions to adversaries, in this case, Russia.

Macron said he would open deterrence exercises to European allies and deploy the country’s strategic forces, including the air force, across Europe. France runs quarterly nuclear exercises involving its air-based nuclear deterrence, carried by a fleet of Rafale fighter jets. The last such exercise was held on Monday.

Partner countries could take part in the drills, playing the role of an adversary, Marcuz noted.

Italy’s doubts

Rome, which has the EU’s third-biggest army, is notably absent from the list. Italian bases host US tactical nuclear bombs – the B61 models.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has long enjoyed a privileged relationship with US President Donald Trump. But Rome’s refusal to authorise the use of its bases for the war in Iran has drawn Washington’s ire.

Still, Italy is so far standing strongly behind the American deterrent.

“This government, like others in the past, will do everything it can to maintain the best possible relations with its US ally,” Alessandro Politi, director of the NATO Defence College Foundation, said.

Additionally, the French doctrine could expose partner countries to security risks, Politi argued, if French nuclear-armed Rafales were to fly through their airspace.

“Such planes are easily vulnerable, and the last guarantee of France’s response capability is four nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines, which means, on average, about one or two on patrol during the year. Frankly, that’s a bit meagre.”

Several countries currently host American nuclear weapons, Politi said, adding these are framed within the context of the NATO alliance.

But Paris and Rome have already collaborated in the field of nuclear deterrence. Italy was the first foreign country to participate in a French nuclear exercise by providing refuelling assets in 2022.

This sets a precedent and so “Italy’s non-participation therefore seems to be more closely tied to political reasons related to the less-than-idyllic relations between Macron and Meloni,” Antonio Missiroli, former NATO assistant secretary general, said.

Both the French programme and any future Italian cooperation will depend on the outcome of national elections in the two countries, both scheduled for 2027, he added.