Drone swarms: coming (sometime) to a war near you. Just not today
Drone swarms: coming (sometime) to a war near you. Just not today. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, By Maaike Verbruggen | February 3, 2021 The world got a sneak peek at the future of war last fall when two former Soviet republics in the Caucasus Mountains launched a high-tech barrage of loitering munitions as well as Turkish-, Israeli-, and locally-made drones at each other during a six-week fight over a region disputed by Azerbaijan and Armenia. Media and think-tank writers covering the battle frequently conveyed an eye-popping assessment: Warring factions had used futuristic swarms of drones in the skies over Nagorno-Karabakh. But does this apparent technological leap in warfare mean that such swarms will be a mainstay in conflict?
To spoil the surprise: No, don’t expect a swarm buzzing over your head any time soon.
While militaries are developing the technology, we shouldn’t call the drone formations on the contemporary battlefield swarms. Unlike true swarms, which use artificial intelligence (AI) to operate autonomously, today’s swarms are pre-programmed or remotely controlled. The individual drones neither communicate within the swarm nor do they adapt to their environment. However, at a time of fast-paced drone proliferation, militaries around the world are actively pursuing research and development in swarms.
Even though no one has developed true, autonomous drone swarms yet, we should still be concerned about their humanitarian implications. Just as militaries are preparing for the future of war by developing counter-swarm technologies, the arms control community should start thinking about where to draw the boundaries around their use.
The swarm is coming. In 2017, the US Department of Defense launched a swarm of micro-drones over California where more than 100 vehicles made decisions without human help. The year before, a Chinese academic and corporate partnership reportedly pulled off a similar feat with 67 drones. There is no doubt that the people behind the US Strategic Capabilities Office’s swarm of Perdix drones or the Chinese partnership’s aerial drones do hope to develop fully-fledged swarms—but they are not there yet. We can say the same about the United Kingdom’s drone swarm squadron, Russia’s Flock 93, Chinese naval swarms, and a Turkish “swarm concept,” as well.
According to the swarm robotics literature, swarms are a group of systems that operate as a collective. In a swarm, the individual units interact with each other and have common goals. They execute them as a collective while responding to their environment. “They are going to do their own thing,” a US Air Force official who oversaw the Perdix program told reporters, according to Air Force Magazine. …………….
Swarms and arms control. Swarms pose several potential humanitarian problems. First there is the issue of whether people will have meaningful control over the multiple units in a swarm. Commanding a swarm will be cognitively complex for the operator……….
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Swarms don’t exist yet, despite frequent claims in the media. But militaries are clearly making advances. It’s time for the arms control community to deal with the potential problems that swarms might pose. Most arms control treaties aim at controlling individual weapons, but the harm of swarms does not stem from the units themselves, but rather from their indirect and collective nature. Arms controllers will need a new conceptual toolkit to think about and deal with the risks. Militaries have long moved away from valuing only military assets that are individual, physical, and weaponized and toward a network-based frame. Maybe the arms control community should follow suit. |
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1.This Month
NOT MY TAXONOMY: FINAL MOBILISATION’ You can find the call to action and the groups supporting the mobilisation here.
https://www.themovementhub.org/stories/not-my-taxonomy-final-mobilisation/
http://www.chainehumaine.fr/actualite-2/fr/pas-taxonomie
Join the mobilisations to Strasbourg, where the European Parliament will vote on the new taxonomy, in the week of the 4th of July.
Where? A base camp is planned in GUNDERSHOFFEN (exact address: 1 chemin de la Scierie, 67110 GUNDERSHOFFEN) from Saturday the 2nd until Thursday the 7th of July in the region.
It is a meadow on which commodities will be set up and with a barn, so make sure to bring camping gear, sleeping bags and mats, as well as toiletries and other camping gear you may need. There will be possibilities for public transport as well as shuttle buses between the camp and Strasbourg.
If you are coming in a larger group, let the coalition know by emailing mobi-strasbourg@riseup.net so that they have an overview of how many people will be coming. This will help the logistics team make sure to provide enough facilities, such as tent space, food, etc.
When? Action days will take place between July 4th and 6th, depending on when the vote and debate about the taxonomy will take place; this will be announced the week before. It is advised to arrive at the very latest on Sunday the 3rd of July afternoon, and plan your travel back for Thursday, July 7th after noon or in the evening ideally.
How to get there?
There will be buses coming to Strasbourg and the base camp from different parts of Europe. Otherwise, the GUNDERSHOFFEN local train station is situated a mere 5 minutes by foot from the campsite.
Are you and your groups interested in organising a bus? Please get in touch with the mobilisation team via mobi-strasbourg@riseup.net.
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