Oh goody! It’s a rosy time coming for investors, (such as Donald Trump) in nuclear weapons!
What It Would Cost to Modernize the U.S. Nuclear Arsenal — and Who Would Benefit, Yahoo Finance Lou Whiteman, The Motley Fool, Motley Fool, January 28, 2019 The United States would have to spend $494 billion over the next decade to enact its plan to modernize its nuclear arsenal, a figure that highlights the opportunity before contractors as the Pentagon seeks ways to pay for one of its top priorities. The total, which comes from a biannual report put out by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), is 23% higher than the $400 billion price tag in the 2017 estimate. It comes at a delicate time for the Pentagon, which, after enjoying two years of steady budget increases, is facing a much less certain fiscal 2020 allocation.
……..Here’s who stands to benefit from the push to renew the nuclear triad.
Next-generation bombers
Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) in late 2015 beat a team including Boeing (NYSE: BA) and Lockheed Martin to design and build a new long-range bomber. The Pentagon is expected to purchase at least 100 aircraft, with deliveries expected to begin in the mid-2020s and extend for a decade.
The plane, now known as the B-21, has been a near-casualty of Congressional budget battles in recent years, but the Pentagon continues to spend upwards of $2 billion per year on development. Overall, the CBO expects the Pentagon to spend $49 billion on bomber acquisition between now and 2028, which would easily make the B-21 Northrop’s most important platform……….
America’s most important deterrent
The Columbia-class submarine, designed to take over for the Ohio-class ballistic missile sub and house the nation’s stockpile of Trident sub-launched ballistic missiles, features a stealth electric drive propulsion system and improved maneuverability. The sub, to be built by General Dynamics’ (NYSE: GD) Electric Boat subsidiary with support from Huntington Ingalls (NYSE: HII), is due to be operational by 2028 to ensure second-strike capability should the U.S. be hit by a catastrophic attack………
A new rocket competition
The only major piece of the triad renewal still up for grabs is the task of replacing the nation’s arsenal of intercontinental ballistic missiles. …….In August 2017, the Air Force awarded Boeing and Northrop Grumman $349 million and $329 million, respectively, to develop competing new designs, with a goal of selecting a winner next year. The government is expected to spend more than $60 billion on ICBMs over the next decade, meaning the award would be a needle-mover for the eventual winner.
The stakes are also high for the two potential manufacturers of the solid-propellant rocket engines that will be used to power the missiles. Northrop brought one of the two contenders in-house last year with its $9.2 billion deal for Orbital ATK. The other, Aerojet Rocketdyne (NYSE: AJRD), has warned the Air Force and lawmakers it needs to win at least part of this procurement to remain a viable supplier.
Given the Pentagon’s priority to nurture a healthy and competitive supply base, it would not be a surprise to see both Aerojet and the former Orbital business split the ICBM engine award.
How to invest
France’s government snidely changes law to avoid paying compensation to Polynesian victims of atomic bomb testing
Dismay in Tahiti over changed nuclear compensation law https://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/381065/dismay-in-tahiti-over-changed-nuclear-compensation-law French Polynesia’s nuclear test veterans organisations are dismayed to find out that a planned change to the compensation law for test victims was quietly altered last year.
It emerged that in the finance act passed in France in the week before Christmas, a provision of negligible exposure for compensation claimants was included.
This was against the recommendation of a commission set up in 2017 which advised for the reference to negligible risk to be removed as a way to improve the 2010 compensation law.
There had been widespread clamour to change the law because most applications had been thrown out.
The head of the Moruroa e tatou organisation Roland Oldham told the public broadcaster that the situation was simple.
He said the French state refused to compensate the test victims by playing for time.
Father Auguste Uebe-Carlson of the Association 193 also condemned this change, saying the fight was continuing.
The 12-member commission which advised the French legislature was headed by a French Polynesian Senator Lana Tetuanui, who is yet to comment.
France tested 193 nuclear weapons in the South Pacific over a 30-year period, with some of the atmospheric blasts irradiating most islands.
Scotland kow tows to UK and Australian govts – rejects courageous Aboriginal appeal against nuclear waste transport
Last ditch aborigine appeal to Scotland to stop nuclear waste transfers to Australia, https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17391290.last-ditch-aborigine-appeal-to-scotland-to-stop-nuclear-waste-transfers-to-australia/?ref=fbshr&fbclid=IwAR3r2Lqdv0V66rc7I8PrKJme4mkAsIx2Wtd5bv-Vy_XeT1i3GOgi_Mr By Martin Williams @MWilliamsHT 29 Jan 19, SOME of the Aborigines who live in and around a sacred burial place in South Australia can still remember the clouds of poison that were the result of Britain’s nuclear bomb tests in the 1950s.
A bit of good news – Radioactive Cesium-137 diminishing in 2 Fukushima rivers, after close to 8 years
 Survey finds concentration of radioactive cesium-137 rapidly decreasing in 2 Fukushima rivers,
http://www.the-japan-news.com/news/article/0005504609 January 26, 2019
The Yomiuri ShimbunThe concentration of radioactive cesium-137, which was spread about following the accident at Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings Inc.’s Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant, has been rapidly decreasing in river waters in municipalities near the facility in Fukushima Prefecture, according to a survey by the Japan Atomic Energy Agency. Compared to the speed at which the radiation of cesium-137 naturally decreases, the concentration in the rivers is decreasing at a speed tantamount to 10 times that, said the JAEA, a national agency for research and development. The JAEA assesses that cesium on top of the ground is carried into rivers by rain but as the radioactive substance seeps underground, among other possible factors, the volume flowing into rivers might have decreased. Following the March 2011 nuclear accident, radioactive materials were dispersed and fell onto the earth. Among these materials was cesium-137, which has a relatively long half-life of about 30 years and is releasing radiation even now. From April 2015 to March 2018, the agency examined two rivers in the prefecture — the Ukedogawa river in Namie and the Otagawa river in Minamisoma. It sampled the waters in a 20-kilometer area around the nuclear power plant and precisely measured the concentration of cesium-137 in them. Results showed the concentration in the Ukedogawa river was around 0.2 becquerels per liter at the start of the study, but had dropped to around 0.1 becquerels in March 2018, indicating the concentration was decreasing 10 times faster than normal. The Otagawa river also showed a similar trend, according to the agency. Takahiro Nakanishi, a senior researcher at the JAEA, said, “If the concentration in river waters relied on for agricultural purpose decreases, the result could help local people resume their agricultural activities.” |
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Genetic effects of radiation, and other pollutants, in children of Gulf War veterans
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Veterans with debilitating Gulf War Syndrome may have passed it on to children
EXCLUSIVE: Stricken families say they want the Ministry of Defence to recognise the condition as the British Legion says it believes 30,000 may be suffering, Grace Macaskill, Mirror UK 27 JAN 2019 British forces veterans suffering Gulf War Syndrome may have given it to their children. New medical research has revealed troops who served in Iraq are more likely to have damage to DNA that could be passed on during reproduction. Almost 75 per cent of the 53,000 UK soldiers there were given an anthrax vaccine. Many were also exposed to depleted uranium in some weapons. Thousands reported a raft of disorders on their return home, including extreme fatigue, dizziness, strange rashes, nerve pain and memory loss – and the British Legion believes 30,000 may be suffering from the syndrome. And more and more affected families are reporting that their children have developed terrifying symptoms of conditions that can be passed on genetically . Now they are demanding the Ministry of Defence acts on the latest research and recognises Gulf War Syndrome. One devastated ex-serviceman, Roger Needham, told us: “Gulf War Syndrome is being passed to our kids and I have to watch my daughter struggle every day.” The daughter of another sick Iraq veteran – diagnosed with arthritis at 11 – said: “My immune system is on the floor and I’ve had a life of bad health. There’s no one in the wider family with this.” And the wife of an ill soldier whose son and daughter have battled chronic illnesses told us: “We want answers.” An ex-Government advisor on Gulf War illnesses, Prof Malcolm Hooper, backed the US findings. “Our soldiers were poisoned,” he said. Their immune systems suffered a massive assault, along with the endocrine system which controls reproduction. “Many of the immune-type symptoms they suffer now can be passed to children through germ cells. The Government must take this seriously.” The American study, funded by the US Veterans Affairs department, will step up the pressure. Dr Michael Falvo, lead researcher at the War Related Illness and Injury Study Center, said the findings were the “first direct biological evidence” Gulf War illness causes harm to the body. “If DNA that is damaged or mutated comes from the sperm or eggs then it is possible for it to be passed on to children,” he said. “We found veterans with Gulf War illness had greater mitochondrial DNA damage than those without. Mitochondria are the ‘power generators’ of cells, passed to offspring primarily via a fertilised egg.” Roger, 51 – an ex-lance corporal with the Royal Army Ordnance Corps who developed chronic fatigue shortly after the conflict – said he welcomed the US findings and wants research done to force the Government to recognise the syndrome. “Every day I have extreme fatigue and unexplained aches and pains,” said Roger, of Doncaster, who worked in ammo dumps. “But seeing my daughter Emma sick with it is awful. Nothing like this has run in my family.” Emma, 26, also suffers from chronic fatigue and struggles in her retail job. Her mum Sue, 51, said: “She was conceived shortly after the war. She was always tired as she grew up. We took her to a paediatrician at 15. ……..“But seeing my daughter Emma sick with it is awful. Nothing like this has run in my family.” Emma, 26, also suffers from chronic fatigue and struggles in her retail job. Her mum Sue, 51, said: “She was conceived shortly after the war. She was always tired as she grew up. We took her to a paediatrician at 15. When I said her dad served in the Gulf and had chronic fatigue he said it made sense to him. That’s when we started to think about the connection to Gulf War Syndrome.” Roger added: “The Americans have recognised Gulf War illness so why can’t the MoD? I don’t think they will because of what it might cost them in payouts.”……. Charities and ex- Army top brass are joining hundreds of families to demand a probe into the health of the 30,000 troops thought to be suffering. Col Richard Kemp, an ex-chair of the COBRA Intelligence Group, said: “If soldiers feel children have developed signs of illness due to their service, it is the Government’s duty to investigate.” Maria Rusling, of the National Gulf Veterans and Families Association, said: “Veterans are worried what legacy they are leaving their children. We need a full investigation.” A King’s College London study in 1999 found Gulf troops two to three times more likely to report 53 different symptoms compared to soldiers sent to Bosnia. But the MoD has never officially recognised the condition. An MoD spokesman said: “We have already sponsored significant research into the effects of this conflict on veterans and have no plans to conduct further studies.” https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/veterans-debilitating-gulf-war-syndrome-13911872 |
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Aldermaston – Britain’s bomb factory – it’s a slow motion train crash
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-awe-bomb-factory-starts-to-implode-lg6vlc55b
Nuclear disarmament, non proliferation, “peaceful use” on the agenda as France, Russia, Britain and the United States meet in China
World’s nuclear weapons club to meet in China as trade talks and Meng Wanzhou extradition deadline loom
Eyes will be on Beijing, Washington and Vancouver in week of high-stakes diplomatic meetings, SCMP, Lee Jeong-ho Liu Zhen, 26 January, 2019 China will host a key nuclear weapons meeting in Beijing next week, the outcome of which could affect efforts to stop the spread of nuclear arms around the globe.
The meeting on Wednesday of five major nuclear powers – China, France, Russia, Britain and the United States – will coincide with the start of a new round of high-stakes trade talks between China and the US in Washington.
In Beijing on Thursday, Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying confirmed “nuclear disarmament, nuclear non-proliferation and peaceful uses of nuclear energy” would be on the agenda of the nuclear club known as the “P5”.
“The theme will be strengthening coordination of the five nuclear-weapon states and safeguarding the Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons mechanism,” Hua said.
……..Zhao Tong, from the Carnegie-Tsinghua Centre for Global Policy’s nuclear policy programme, said the Beijing gathering would also lay the groundwork for a five-yearly conference in 2020 to review the non-proliferation treaty.
At the last review conference in New York in 2015, member countries failed to reach agreement on how to advance the treaty. …….
Zhao said Hua’s remarks suggested that next week’s meeting would also be a crucial chance for the US and Russia to discuss their differences over the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), which US President Donald Trump said the US would withdraw from.
“The US and Russia should take this important opportunity to discuss ways to ease the INF dispute. If INF is abandoned, the New START that remains between them will also suffer … which will be a very dangerous trend,” Zhao said.
New START is a nuclear arms reduction treaty Moscow and Washington signed in 2010. The INF Treaty was signed by the US and the then Soviet Union to eliminate short and intermediate-range missiles.
Meanwhile in Washington, all eyes will be watching to see whether US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin can reach a trade deal with the Chinese delegation led by Vice-Premier Liu He. …….. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2183726/worlds-nuclear-weapons-club-meet-china-trade-talks-and-meng
North Korea’s Nukes and the ‘Forgotten War’
Hampton Sides, author of a new book about a turning point in the Korea war, explores the state of the Koreas and Trump’s forthcoming visit. Interview, Bloomberg, By Tobin Harshaw, January 28, 2019,
“……It is a cliche that the so-called police action in Korea from 1950 to 1952 is America’s “forgotten war.” But, like most cliches, there is a lot of truth to it. American ignorance about the Korean War is a shame, and not only because it devalues the sacrifices of those who fought in it. With North Korea’s nuclear arsenal now threatening the U.S. mainland (not to mention Hawaii, Japan and the folks on the southern end of the peninsula), and President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un set to meet again next month, a little historical perspective might be helpful.
………. HS: Be mindful of the fact that North Korea’s fear and loathing of the U.S., however warped it seems, does have legitimate historical roots. During the Korean War, the U.S. bombed that country back to the Stone Age: Every building, every bridge, every village. The stated goal was to not leave a single brick standing upon another brick. That air campaign was gratuitous and cruel. We killed hundreds of thousands of civilians. We’re a country that has a habit of bombing people and then wondering why those people hate us. As we parse the madness that is the Kim regime, we should always keep in mind that this underlying history of “terror from above” figures into that madness.
Kim strikes many as a lunatic, but his nuclear strategy has actually been quite rational and effective in achieving his goals. So coaxing him to give up his nukes will take some extremely creative and forceful negotiating. The Hermit Kingdom desperately needs many, many things from the outside world — food, medicines, capital, technology, expertise and so on, and Kim knows this. A big question is whether he would really allow his own people to benefit in any meaningful way from the flow of goods and amenities that a removal of sanctions would usher in. Another question is whether he’d actually allow outside experts to come in and closely monitor his regime’s nuclear compliance. Caveats aside, we can only hope the talks continue. I’m highly skeptical of Trump’s much-avowed skills as a deal-maker, but a deal is certainly in the interest of the whole wide world.
……….. HS: It was repeatedly said during the 2016 campaign that Douglas MacArthur is Trump’s “favorite general.” I don’t get the sense that Trump reads history — or anything else, for that matter — but it’s a telling detail. Because with Douglas MacArthur you had a grandiose and vainglorious autocrat who had surrounded himself with sycophants and yes-men. He was a colorful and interesting character — in narrative terms, a gift that keeps on giving. But he was a thoroughgoing narcissist. It was said that he didn’t have a staff; he had a court. He didn’t want to hear inconvenient information. He didn’t like experts — he was the expert. He was in love with the vertical pronoun. It was all about him.This sounds extremely familiar to me.
………. Of course, Korea should never have been divided in the first place — drawing that line created one of the great geopolitical tragedies of modern times. Many thousands of families were torn apart and never allowed to see each other again. Historically speaking, there’s no difference between northern and southern Korea. It’s one country, one language, one culture, one people.
Or at least it was. After more than 70 years of living apart, a reunification, if by some miracle it ever happened, would be a wrenching and doubtless violent process. It’s not clear how a brainwashed and traumatized people from an impoverished police state integrates into the dynamic capitalist society that is modern South Korea. Still, I believe it’s destined to happen one day.https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-01-27/korean-war-in-current-events-from-the-1950s-to-a-nuclear-north
Germany phasing out coal, but will not import nuclear power as replacement
“We want energy security to be provided at all times,” the minister told broadcaster ZDF, but added: “We do not want to import cheap nuclear power from other countries.”
Germany‘s coal commission on Jan. 26 said the country should shut down all of its coal-fired power plants by 2038 at the latest, proposing at least 40 billion euros ($45.7 billion) in aid to regions affected by the phase-out.
USA hoping to profit from nuclear power, by exporting waste clean-up technology
Dov Schwartz is the spokesman for the National Nuclear Security Administration. He confirmed the group is thinking about how to help other countries reduce nuclear waste. However, Schwartz did not give details.
The NNSA also declined a Reuters request for an interview with Brent Park, who is leading the effort.
What would the technology do?
The unnamed sources say the technology could involve crushing, heating or sending an electric current through nuclear waste to reduce its size.
The machinery to do so would be put in a “black box” the size of a shipping container. It would be sent to other countries with nuclear energy programs; however, it would remain owned and operated by the United States, the sources said.
The sources did not name countries to which the service would be offered. They also did not say where the waste would be stored after it is run through the equipment. But they said they were worried the processes could increase the risk of dangerous materials reaching militant groups or nations unfriendly to the United States.
Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter banned nuclear waste reprocessing in 1977. The reprocessing opens pure amounts of uranium and plutonium, both of which could be used to make nuclear bombs.
NNSA spokesperson Dov Schwartz said the plans under consideration do not involve reprocessing. But he did not say what technologies could be used.
Concerns
The government of U.S. President Donald Trump has made promoting nuclear technology abroad a high priority. The U.S. Energy Secretary, Rick Perry, visited Saudi Arabia this month for talks on a nuclear energy deal with the kingdom. And the American business Westinghouse hopes to sell nuclear power technology to countries from Saudi Arabia to India.
But a top arms control officer during the Obama administration questions the direction of the Trump government. Thomas Countryman said the U.S. should improve its ability to get rid of its own nuclear waste before helping other countries.
A nuclear expert at the Union of Concerned Scientists also expressed some doubt about the NNSA plan. Edwin Lyman said NNSA should not be focused so much on reducing the size of nuclear waste. Instead, it should be concerned about the dangers of nuclear waste that make it hard to store.
Lyman said even a small amount of nuclear waste gives off radioactivity and heat. It “remains dangerous for hundreds of thousands of years,” he said.
Rapid Arctic Warming Linked To Mid-Latitude Weather Extremes — Mining Awareness +
“The polar vortex is a large area of low pressure and cold air surrounding both of the Earth’s poles. It ALWAYS exists near the poles, but weakens in summer and strengthens in winter. The term “vortex” refers to the counter-clockwise flow of air that helps keep the colder air near the Poles. Many times during […]
via Rapid Arctic Warming Linked To Mid-Latitude Weather Extremes — Mining Awareness +
January 28 Energy News — geoharvey
Opinion: ¶ “What Would Australia Look Like Powered By 100% Renewable Energy?” • At least nine studies conducted during the decade show how Australia can move from an electricity system based on polluting coal and gas to one powered by the sun, wind, and waves. Each has a different pathway towards 100% renewable energy. [The Guardian] […]
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Nuclear power: Surviving on secrecy and misinformation
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