James Hansen – a prophet on climate change, but a crank on nuclear power

James Hansen and the whale, a tragi-comedy in four chapters, The Reality Based Community, July 1, 2018 By James Wimberley

“………..[James Hansen] he said :
Nuclear, especially next-generation nuclear, has tremendous potential to be part of the solution to climate change. The dangers of fossil fuels are staring us in the face. So for us to say we won’t use all the tools [such as nuclear energy] to solve the problem is crazy.

At this stage, the position is harmless crankiness. Nuclear reactors, with their negative learning curve, regular delays, uncertainty, and long-tail risks drove off almost all private investors decades ago. There is no good reason to think new nuclear is essential or even useful to the energy transition. “Next-generation nuclear” doesn’t exist. The economics of the nuclear reactors that can be built, poor as they are, depend on use as “baseload”, a concept that cheap but variable wind and solar as primary generators have rendered obsolete. What these need is flexible despatchable backup, which can be supplied far more cheaply by storage, gas turbines, more trade (eg with Quebec or Norway), or paid-for demand response. On energy blogs like MIT Technology Review or GTM you can find a vociferous band of loyal pro-nuclear commentators, but they do not represent anybody with power or money. …..

Another group of prophets deserves to be honoured. ……… I cited earlier the fall in the cost of renewables as one key element in making possible the Paris Agreement and the energy transition it requires. This did not happen by accident or the magic of the free market. The slope of the learning curves of technologies like wind and solar power and batteries may be exogenous. But it’s a relationship between cost and volume, and depends on growth in volume and an appropriate level of R&D. Until wind and solar broke through cost parity with coal, oil and gas a few years ago, progress down the leaning curve depended on subsidised deployment and research. Car batteries are not quite there yet.

These crucial policy and technical developments were the fruit of a fairly small number of enterprising, determined and lucky individuals. They included:

Researchers on solar: Becquerel, Willoughby Smith, Fritts, Einstein, Czochralski, the Bell Labs team of Chapin, Fuller, and Pearson. On wind: Poul La Cour and Johannes Juul in Denmark. On batteries: John Goodenough, who coming up to his 96th birthday still unprized in Stockholm, has just announced a research breakthrough on a high-density solid-state lithium battery.
Politicians and bureaucrats: NASA in the 1960s, MITI in the 1970s; Hans-Josef Fell and Hermann Scheer, leaders of the Energiewende in Germany and instigators of the 2000 Renewable Energy Act (EEG); Jerry Brown of California; Barack Obama (through targeted ARRA funding and the bilateral deal with China that made Paris possible).
Businessmen: Tokuji Hayakawa of Sharp in Japan; Elon Musk of Tesla; Wang Chuanfu of BYD.

This is an incomplete list, and no doubt unfair from my lack of knowledge. But it is near-certain that without these 18, and the then leaders of MITI and NASA, renewable energy and electric transport would not be where they are today.

The challenge also induced a lot of effort on enhanced geothermal, wave energy, OTEC, power kites, fuel cell cars, and other ideas that have not so far panned out. Nobody knows in advance which ideas will work out, and the failures also deserve their share of praise….. http://www.samefacts.com/2018/07/everything-else/james-hansen-and-the-whale-a-tragi-comedy-in-four-chapters/

1.This Month

This page has a very useful “SEARCH” function. If you scroll down the right side panel you can use either the categories listed, or the “Search” slot. Type in a name or a place or topic on this slot, and it’s easy to find a related post.

On behalf of the blogger Shaun McGee aka arclight aka Sean Arclight on FB and @Arclight2011 on Twitter, my co-blogger, one of us 3 bloggers of Nuclear news blog (https://wordpress.com/post/nuclear-news.net):

Shaun needs badly to replace his computer, which is kaputt. During the past 8 years he has been unceasingly researching and blogging about worldwide nuclear and about Fukushima, producing quality articles.

Please let’s help him to get a new computer, tip in whatever you can spare him. His paypal connected email is arclight2011@riseup.net for donations.

Advanced thanks, Herve Courtois aka Dun Renard

A good news story: Jay Inslee Is Betting He Can Win the Presidency on Climate Change
The Washington governor believes his focus on the environment will resonate with voters. But can he persuade enough Americans to pay attention to him? EDWARD-ISAAC DOVERE, The Atlantic JAN 2, 2019 “………When you’ve been working on something for over a decade, and now seeing people awakening to that, it’s just really gratifying and heartening,” the Washington governor recently told me, sitting in his private study on the top floor of the governor’s mansion. When it comes to climate change, there now appears to be “an appetite for someone who has credibility and a long track record and, most importantly, a vision statement. It’s changed to show an opening in a Democratic primary, I believe.”…..

As he did in Washington State, Inslee would propose a mix of government investments and incentives to spur other investment, restrictions on power plants and emissions, and programs to promote R&D and job growth. An endless number of jobs can be created in the climate arena, Inslee says. It’s the way to make a real dent in income inequality and have the Democratic Party bring tangible solutions to communities in rural America that have been left behind……… https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/01/washington-governor-jay-inslee-running-president/579217/

Sizewell Hero

Greta & Svante Thunberg – Straight Talk

Longtime Reporter Leaves NBC Saying Media Is “Trump Circus” That Encourages Perpetual War

EVENT

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists will host a live international news conference at 10 a.m. EST/1500 GMT on Thursday, January 24, 2019, to announce the 2019 time of the Doomsday Clock. The news conference will take place at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C. Watch the announcement live on our website, on our Facebook page, or on Twitter. more https://nuclear-news.net/2019/01/10/the-doomsday-statement-2019-bulletin-of-the-atomic-scientists/

The Nuclear Resister – Nonviolent Resistance for a Peaceful and Nuclear-Free Future

Accidents Can Happen. Voices of Women from Three Mile Island https://www.accidentscanhappenthefilm.com/

A Good News Story: A Surge of Climate Lawsuits Targets Human Rights, Damage from Fossil Fuels Cities, states and the fishing industry want courts to hold fossil fuel companies accountable for global warming. Others argue government inaction violates rights.BY NICHOLAS KUSNETZ “….The past year saw a surge in new lawsuits filed against fossil fuel companies, and major developments in cases pressing governments for action in the United States and abroad.”

“Lawsuits, even if unsuccessful, can help shape public opinion,”

“Mr. Scopes lost the monkey trial, but it led to a lot more awareness about the issue of teaching evolution.”

In Colombia and the Netherlands, citizens won rulings in 2018 ordering their governments to cut emissions and protect forests. By framing climate change in terms of human rights, those cases and similar ones filed in the U.S. and other countries are transforming how the courts address the issue………. https://insideclimatenews.org/news/04012019/climate-change-lawsuits-2018-year-review-exxon-fossil-fuel-companies-human-rights-children-government

Why it’s time to think about human extinction | Dr David Suzuki

No Arctic Sea-Ice; Greenland Exposed; Coast is Toast; Jet Streams Kaput

Arctic Summer Temperatures to Skyrocket like a “Bat out of Hell”: Part 3

nuclear-news

The News That Matters about the Nuclear Industry Fukushima Chernobyl Mayak Three Mile Island Atomic Testing Radiation Isotope