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Trump’s North Korea talks not likely to succeed

Expect Trump’s North Korea talks to be fruitless, Chicago Tribune, Steve Chapman, Contact Reporter

“…….. Why isn’t Trump likely to succeed? The first reason is that nuclear weapons are the ultimate security guarantee. 

……….If Saddam Hussein had been able to acquire nuclear weapons, he would still be in power, not dead from a hangman’s noose.Kim has generously agreed not to rule out the complete denuclearization that the administration demands. But that’s a long way from signing up for it. He may be willing to place some limits on his nuclear arsenal or his missile tests, but such a modest outcome would be hard for Trump to accept.

The second reason to expect failure is that Trump has indicated we can’t be trusted. Under the Obama administration, Iran agreed to dismantle much of its nuclear infrastructure and submit to a strict inspections regime. U.N. inspectors have repeatedly affirmed that Iran is complying with the terms.

Yet Trump, his national security adviser, John Bolton, and his nominee for secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, all detest the accord. The president said in January that if the Iranian agreement isn’t amended to his satisfaction — which is unlikely — he’ll abandon it.

He has until May 12 to decide whether to continue waiving U.S. sanctions on Iran, and Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker predicted last month that he won’t. The lesson for North Korea is that even if one president agrees to certain obligations, the next one may renege.

In any case, Trump will have to confront an unpleasant prospect in the talks with North Korea. Kim is not about to trade a cow for a bag of magic beans. Getting him to surrender something the North Koreans value so highly and have invested so much to achieve would require comparable concessions on our part.

……. Whatever we get from North Korea, we can expect to pay for in full. Trump may not be willing to bear that cost — or be able to persuade Republicans in Congress to go along. In negotiations such as this, nothing big comes without painful compromises…….http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/chapman/ct-perspec-chapman-north-korea-talks-trump-0422-20180420-story.html

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April 21, 2018 - Posted by | politics international

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