nuclear-news

The International Energy Agency puts the case for falling use of nuclear energy!

The Low Nuclear Case is not a forecast but “is intended to illustrate what a pessimistic view of the prospects for the nuclear power industry might entail,” the report said.

IEA draft: Nuclear to fall as power demand  Reuters 5 Nov 11 – The Fukushima disaster could lead to a 15 percent fall in world nuclear power generation by 2035, while power demand at the same time could rise by 3.1 percent a year, according to a draft copy of the International Energy Agency’s 2011 World Energy Outlook.

Following the Japanese crisis, many countries put their nuclear power plans on hold or under review, and some, including Germany and Switzerland, opted out of the technology entirely.
The draft, obtained by Reuters ahead of its release next week, sai the IEA had developed a “Low Nuclear Case” that assesses possible implications for global energy balances of a much smaller role for nuclear power. The draft was dated July 2011, and the IEA is scheduled to release the report in London next Wednesday.

“In the Low Nuclear Case, the total amount of nuclear power capacity falls from 393 gigawatt (GW) at the start of 2011 to 339 GW in 2035, compared with an increase to 638 GW in the New Policies Scenario,” the report said, a drop of around 15 percent.

The report’s main scenario is the “New Policies” scenario.

The Low Nuclear Case is not a forecast but “is intended to illustrate
what a pessimistic view of the prospects for the nuclear power
industry might entail,” the report said.

“The share of nuclear power in total generation drops from 13 percent
today to just 7 percent in 2035, with implications for energy
security, fuel-mix diversity, spending on energy imports and
energy-related CO2 emissions.”

The report said “the prospects for nuclear power are now much more
uncertain than before the Fukushima nuclear accident” and that it had
“greatly increased the uncertainty about the future role of nuclear
power in meeting the world’s energy needs.”

The IEA report said the drop in nuclear generation caused a rise in
oil- and gas-fired power generation equivalent to about 0.2 percent of
global oil supplies and 0.4 percent of natural gas supplies.

In its New Policies Scenario, the report said it expected world
electricity demand to rise from 17,200 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2009 to
almost 31,500 TWh in 2035, an annual growth rate of 3.1 percent.

It estimated total investment in the power sector between 2011 and
2035 at $16.8 trillion.

“Renewable energy technologies, led by hydropower and wind, account
for half of this additional capacity and 60 percent of the investment
in power generation,” the report said.

The report said it expected non-hydro renewables to generate 16
percent of global electricity in 2035, up from 3 percent in 2009.

“The IEA has adjusted the World Energy Outlook over the past decade in
‘mini steps’ toward more and more renewable energy deployment,” said
Sven Teske, a senior energy expert at Greenpeace International.

“We are still missing a real change away from false solutions such as
nuclear power and carbon capture and storage toward a mix of renewable
energy and energy efficiency,” he added…..

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/04/us-energy-iea-nuclear-newspro-idUSTRE7A36OP20111104

November 5, 2011 - Posted by Christina Macpherson | 2 WORLD, business and costs