On April 2, UNSCEAR published its long-awaited Report on Fukushima. Of prime importance are its estimates of collective doses to the Japanese population.
Page 60 of Annex A of the UNSCEAR report contains the following table 8 on estimated collective effective doses and collective absorbed doses to the thyroid for the population of Japan (approximately 128 million in 2010).
| Exposure duration | Over first year | Over ten years | Up to age 80 years |
| Collective effective dose | 18,000 man-Sv | 36,000 man-Sv | 48,000 man-Sv |
| Collective absorbed dose to thyroid | 82,000 man-Gy | 100,000 man-Gy | 112,000 man-Gy |
These estimates are slightly higher than in the draft UNSCEAR report in November 2013. For example, the 80 yr whole body dose was 41,000 man Sv and thyroid dose was 110,000 man Sv in last year’s draft.
In an early preliminary view, these are realistic collective doses, as they are relatively consistent with some independent estimates in Europe. For example, the most detailed model used by the Report published by IPPNW Germany in late March 2013 estimated 95,000 man Sv: ie the UNSCEAR 48,000 man Sv estimate is within a factor of 2 of this, which is good agreement given the uncertainties in the IPPNW’s methodology and in this area generally.
My own estimate in early March 2013 for Fukushima Prefecture (the most contaminated region) alone was 34,000 man Sv. If I were to add an estimate for the rest of Japan of ~13,000[1] man Sv, this would total 47,000 man Sv – very close to UNSCEAR’s estimate of 48,000 man Sv. In fact, the agreement is slightly unnerving! 
In terms of the fatal cancers these doses would cause, the new UNSCEAR estimates imply (via the LNT theory) that in future ~5,000 people in Japan will die from Fukushima’s fallout, if we applied a fatal cancer risk of 10% per Sv. (This is because the UNSCEAR report like the previous WHO reports no longer applies a DREFF of 2 to risk estimates.)
However a more detailed scrutiny will be required of the methodologies and assumptions used in the new UNSCEAR report before a final view can be given.
PS. The UNSCEAR report on page 60 adds that “The collective effective dose to the population of Japan due to a lifetime exposure following the FDNPS accident is approximately 10-15% of the corresponding value for European populations exposed to radiation following the Chernobyl accident. Correspondingly, the collective absorbed dose to the thyroid was approximately 5% of that due to the Chernobyl accident.”
From this, one can work out what UNSCEAR now thinks the whole body collective dose to Europe was from Chernobyl: ie 320,000 to 480,000 man Sv, leading to ~32,000 to ~48,000 fatal cancers. This has never been stated before by UNSCEAR. These estimates are close to the 2006 independent TORCH report’s estimates of 30,000 to 60,000 fatal cancers.
[1] UNSCEAR estimates the average whole body dose to the rest of Japan outside Fukushima Prefecture was ~0.1 mSv. Multiplied by 126,000,000 people outside Fukushima gives a collective dose of 12,600 or 13,000 to 2 sig figs.
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Reblogged this on jkmhoffman.
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But the UNSCEAR does not apply the defunct LNT for predicting actual damage response. They use the LT model. And all that Collective dose is below the threshold.
hi kitemansa
Ian Fairlie thinks the LNT model should be retained and others think that the “dose” measuring system does not take into account hot spots and ingestion of hot particles.. There is much room for debate here.. the main thing is that the WHO report lied to the media and the media are not correcting their version of the story.. I think that is a good starting point for discussion for now.. the other arguments may follow once the initial lies of Richard Wakefords UNSCEAR/ICRP model are known.. I find it interesting that Richard Wakeford et al needs to change the model to LT to make his version of the truth pallatable, however the UNSCEAR meeting in moscow in 2013 (you are aware of this meeting i suspect? if not please google) said that there would be no changes to the way the model would be ascertained even though the Belgium contingent wanted hot particles and other factors to be taken into account and that would increase the collective dose even further ..
Also, the collected dose throughout japan does not narrow down on the more effected areas and the two and a half million people most affected .. It does not take into account health effects like Thyroid damage and future heart disease and damage from gamma energies either .. A link for your comment here https://nuclear-news.net/2014/04/25/1500-children-likely-to-develop-heart-problems-on-a-yearly-basis-effects-of-the-fukushima-nuclear-disaster-banned-by-face-book/
Peace
here did the WHO report “lie to the media”? The WHO report suggested a potential high value death toll of about 1800, IIRC; but they had much higher dosage estimates based on early “fence-sitter” approximations. The UNSCEAR report had more data to work with so has more accurate dosage data. Their estimate is effectively zero except in the few most highly dosed workers, and fairly low among them.
The UNSCEAR model uses LNT for all dosage values above what can be seen in natural background radiation levels. But what that does is put the kaibosh on your 10%/Sv of collective dose. The RATE of collective dose and the value of the dose-rate become significant factors.
LNT: an idea which should be retired? No, it should be retained
Posted on January 14, 2014
http://www.ianfairlie.org/news/lnt-an-idea-which-should-be-retired-no-it-should-be-retained/
Last year I wrote a post expressing regret that ill-informed journalists and others often wrote nonsense articles about radiation risks.
Sadly, it’s happened again.
Stewart Brand, founder of the Whole Earth Catalogue, has recently stated that the Linear No Threshold theory of radiation’s effects should be retired because it “.. is based on no knowledge whatever.” In fact, much powerful evidence backs the LNT. Some of this is discussed here.
Brand also states ” Below 100 millisieverts per year, however, no increased cancer incidence has been detected…” Well again he’s plain wrong. At least ten studies show effects below 100 mSv: they are listed here.
Mr Brand is an American so he should be aware of the US government’s premier body on radiation risks – the US National Academy of Sciences’s BEIR committee. Its 2005 report, BEIR VII, strongly supported LNT with a great deal of scientific evidence. (BEIR stands for Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation). It gave a very clear account of why LNT should be used down to very low doses: Mr Brand would be able to understand it.
The problem for Mr Brand and others like him is that radiation’s cancer and genetic risks are anonymous and remote in time so can be difficult to grasp. Here’s a good way to understand them. If 100,000 US adults were each exposed to one mSv of radiation, 10 to 15 would die of radiation-induced cancer several years even decades later. Such exposures act like a reverse lottery: each exposed person would get a reverse ticket and some unlucky people would later die. For example, after the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in 1986, tens of millions of Europeans were exposed to low levels of radioactive fallout. They received reverse lottery tickets and many will ultimately die from cancers from the fallout’s radiation. The same occurred to Japanese people after Fukushima.
By the way, credit for the reverse lottery analogy goes to Jan Beyea in the US.
hi kitemansa
“But the UNSCEAR does not apply the defunct LNT for predicting actual damage response. They use the LT model. And all that Collective dose is below the threshold.””
that was your first comment..
your second comment seems to forget the “defunct” LT theory 🙂
so the “fence sitter estimates” nor the new and improved estimates 🙂 do not take into account the fact that the 2,500 000 residents that were heavily hit (minus those in chiba, Iwake and possibly Tokyo (to a certain extent) ) had their dose spread over 125, 000 000 (approx) people. Nor does the dose take into account pregnant women and children as the dose is based on a 33 year old male..
statistics are a bad way of finding out the truth.. if the nuclear industry had invested in enough radiation monitoring stations as is found in germany and you had let equipped Bellona staff out of Tokyo so they could have made measurements in the fukushima prefecture the need for guess work on the actual dose would not be necessary. It makes you wonder if tepco and the government were not hiding things? However the Chinese and Russians did actually measure things as did the USA bases. We have not seen any realistic measurements made public from them unless you want to discuss the health effects of the Sailors that responded to the disaster that are presently suing Tepco.
On the other hand we could ask the Russians but they are trying to not get sued by the marshalise Islanders according to the recent reuters article..
We could ask the Chinese who have extremely detailed isotopic evidence but the IAEA and the Japanese government did a quick deal concerning the chinese doing all the large metal fabrication for Japans export nuclear program.. 3 reactors in cumbria UK?? home of Richard wakeford (ex British Nuclear Fools) icrp, Unscear etc (blind and biased statisticians are hard to find Eh?)
It is very schill like btw not to answer the other points i posted as i responded to your points? You have a nice shiny new wordpress account (unused) .. please respond!
the WHO report did not cover all aspects of health did they? H stands for health not just deaths from cancer.. so they lied, deceived and generally prevaricated because of the IAEA/ICRP/UNSCEAR/Richard wacky wakeford 🙂 thats my view..
peace
Can’t read, hunh? My second post said LNT “above what can be seen”, so in fact that is a LT model. It just uses the slopes and equations fom the LNT. This is the modern conservative model. It is conservative because the slopes and equations seem to be showing as too high also.
The LNT model which was used with a threshold, has all the gender and age factors in it.
Re: ignoring other points… Your reply to me started out that somebody thinks something. Thats nice. I don’t care. Your first statement of purported fact was that the WHO lied. To that I responded.
A new study conducted by Japanese researchers revealed that cumulative amount of radioactive cesium at the disaster-hit Fukushima nuclear power plant is nearly 1,5 times higher than previous estimates of the Tokyo Electric Power Co. (TEPCO), RIA Novosti reports. According to the research, between 17.500 and 20.500 terabecquerels of radioactive cesium-137 was released into the atmosphere from the Fukushima reactors against less than 13.600 terabecquerels declared by the plant operator TEPCO.
Read more: http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_05_09/Radioactive-cesium-levels-at-Fukushima-higher-than-TEPCO-claims-0913/
Concerning the WHO`s estimate on workers, without mentioning Yakyza contractors, homeless people and disabled people .. mishaps caused by not employing trained engineers etc etc
There is this.. Any comment Kitemansa????????
Japanese government covers up TEPCO workers deaths and intimidates journalists who speak out! – Mako Oshidori
http://nsnbc.me/2014/03/21/exposed-death-of-fukushima-workers-covered-up-by-tepco-and-government/
Fri, Mar 21st, 2014
nsnbc : The death of many Fukushima workers who die from radiation exposure is covered-up by Fukushima Daiichi power plant operator TEPCO and the Japanese government, said a Japanese journalist who investigated the unreported deaths, adding that she found a TEPCO memo instructing officials to “cut her questions short appropriately”, and that police is following her around in an intimidating manner.
TEPCO -Workers deaths are not reported 報道されない原発作業員の死亡について
…“She said that there have been so many workers dead without being reported. Some died during the 2 days break, some didn’t turn up the next morning and were found dead…. Those who died haven’t been measured for how much exposure they got. Tepco doesn’t count and report the dead unless they die during their work hours.” …
Posted by Mia
21 November 2013
(Source)
http://www.asyura2.com/12/genpatu20/msg/137.html
http://blogs.yahoo.co.jp/chikako_5155/7006995.html
(Editor’s comment: According to Mrs. Mako Oshidori of NPJ and of Yoshimoto Kogyo Co., Ltd., Tepco doesn’t keep a record of the worker’s radiation exposure and number of deaths (See the video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Pu5iLj7toE There has been some information in the Japanese blogs concerning Tepco worker’s deaths. I picked a few of them for this post.
＜福島県川内村村議会議員 西山千嘉子氏からの情報＞ 7/11/2011 原発作業員の死亡はこれまで3名と発表されているが、あくまでも、作業中に体調不良で亡くなった方の数。契約を終えて家に帰ってから亡くなる方が多いが、それはまったくカウントされていない。これまでフクイチ原発作業に携わった作業員は、のべ約10万人、そのうち約４％にあたる4300人が亡くなっているという。直接の死因は心筋梗塞が多いよう だ。そのようにして亡くなくなった場合には、億単位の多額の口止料が支払われており、口外すると没収されてしまうため、家族も一切口をつぐんでいるよう だ。
According to Ms. Chikako Nishiyama, a former member of the Kawauchi village Assembly, the official announcement that 3 Tepco workers being the number who died during their work at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant. Ms. Nishiyama commented that Tepco doesn’t count the workers if they died after their contracts ended. She also said that there were 100,000shifts shared between the work force that have worked at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant so far, also, 4% of 100,000 (4300) workers have reportedly died. Most of them have died of heart attacks. If they died suddenly then Tepco paid a huge amount of money (about 3 million yen )to their families, to keep them silent about the deaths. If they talk about the deaths then the money that would be taken back. Therefore, nobody has said anything about it in the public domain.
原発作業員以外にも、自衛隊員が64名、警官が300名近く、亡くなっているようだ。警官は、警戒区域の検問などに常時携わっているが、防護服なしなので、被曝量は相当なものになっているはずだ
Apart from Tepco workers, 64 members of the Self Defence Force and about 300 policemen have also died. They said that those policemen who work at the security check points of the no go zones in Fukushima prefecture are not wearing any protection, therefore, they have been exposed to huge amounts of ionizing radiation.
瀬戸教授は、「災害対策実行本部本部統括監・東北大学瀬戸翼教授」です。 この告発でアカウントを剥奪された模様
The above information came from a whistle blower, Prof. Seto at professor at Tohoku University and was also a Disaster control headquarters inspector general (in 2011). After releasing the information, his blog account was suspiciously closed. 。http://bit.ly/sEGL7d (this account was closed.)
以上、西山さんの情報で精度の高そうなものは、瀬戸教授の内部告発による、行方不明者のうち数名が県立医大に検体として持ち込まれていた。 One other thing Prof Seto said that seemed close to the truthwas that several missing bodies that were found in the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant were taken into Fukushima Medical University and kept as specimen materials.
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
*University of Tohoku Hospital has been imposing a gag order to stop information on 800 Tepco worker deaths. (1/5/2012)
http://www.asyura2.com/12/genpatu23/msg/427.html
福島原発の作業員８００人死去の情報を東北大学医学部附属病院が緘口令を敷いて、外部に洩れなくしているのだが、惨状に堪えられない医師や看護師らから、次第に洩れ始めている
University of Tohoku Hospital has been imposing a gag order to stop information concerning 800 Tepco worker deaths. This information is coming from some doctors and nurses who have been it finding hard to keep quite about it.
http://blog.kuruten.jp/itagakieiken/205490
2012年5月1日 3時3分の記事
◆〔特別情報�〕
東北大学医学部附属病院が、福島第１原発について「極秘情報」が外部に洩れないように緘口令を敷いている。
それは、福島第１原発の大事故現場に送り込まれた作業員（約３０００人）のうち、すでに８００人が放射能により死亡しているのに、東北大学医学部附属病 院が緘口令を敷いて、外部に洩れないようにしているということだ。患者たちは、一旦、東北大学医学部附属病院で診察を受けた後、新潟県内にある分院に移送 されて、静かに死期を迎えるまで過ごす。放射線治療を受けても、手の施しようがないからである。
University of Tohoku Hospital has been imposing a gag order to stop the top secret information on the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident from leaking outside. One of top secret information is about 800 out of 3000 Tepco clean-up workers died because of high exposure to ionizing radiation at the site. Those patients received some examination at the University of Tohoku Hospital, then had been taken into one of their branch hospital in Niigata prefecture and stayed till they die quietly. Because there was nothing the doctors could do to save their lives.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mXy1GH7Jqsgヤブロコフ博士講演会 「調査報告 チェルノブイリ被害の全貌」 Dr. Alexey Yablokokv ‘s lecture in Tokyo on 18/5/13
(1h5m-) The Japanese comedian Makorine of Oshidori interviewed a chief nurse of the medical department for the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant sometime back in 2011 and got the facts on mortality stories of the clean-up workers. However, she wasn’t able to publish the information at that time. She got a chance to mention it in front of the big audience when she worked as a master of the ceremony at the lecture by Dr. Yablokokv in Tokyo on 18th of May, 2013.
“She said that there have been so many workers dead without being reported. Some died during the 2 days break, some didn’t turn up the next morning and were found dead…. Those who died haven’t been measured for how much exposure they got. Tepco doesn’t count and report the dead unless they die during their work hours.”
(Editor’s note: I would like to pray for those workers who died without being recognized.)
Fukushima workers angry after the death of one of their own
March 29, 2014 at 14:40
Translated by Google
http://www.scoop.it/t/environnement-par-la-cftc-hus/p/4018640779/2014/03/30/fukushima-des-travailleurs-en-colere-apres-la-mort-d-un-des-leurs
What’s going on with unreported worker deaths among Fukushima’s clean-up force?
Japanese Journalist: Fukushima workers die suddenly but it’s not reported, says nurse at plant — Gov’t agents following me for surveillance(VIDEO) http://enenews.com/japanese-journalist-fukushima-workers-die-suddenly-but-its-not-reported-says-nurse-at-plant-govt-agents-following-me-for-surveillance-video?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campai
Fukushima Voice, Mar. 21, 2014: On March 4-7, 2014 […] international conference was held, 25 minutes outside of Frankfurt, on “Effects of Nuclear Disasters on Natural Environment and Human Health,” co-organized by the German chapter of the International Physicians for Prevention of Nuclear War (IPPNW) and the Protestant Church in Hesse and Nassau. Mako Oshidori, a Japanese comedienne and a freelance journalist, was part of the press conference on March 6, 2014. The Ustream video in Japanese can be found here […] Mako Oshidori was enrolled in the School of Life Sciences at Tottori University Faculty of Medicine for three years […] Mako Oshidori herself discovered a TEPCO memo telling officials to “cut Mako-chan(‘s question) short appropriately.”
Transcript of Oshidori’s presentation by Fukushima Voice, Transcription by Takashi Mizuno/Translation by @YuriHiranuma, Mar. 21, 2014: […] government agents began following me for surveillance. I heard about it from researchers who were my friends as well as some government officials. I will show you a photo I secretly took of the agent, so you know what sort of surveillance I mean. When I would talk to someone, a surveillance agent from the central government’s public police force would come very close, trying to eavesdrop on the conversation. […] I would like to talk a little about my interview of a nurse who used to work at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP) after the accident. […] He was a nurse at Fukushima Daiichi NPP in 2012. He quit his job with TEPCO in 2013, and that’s when I interviewed him. As of now, there are multiple NPP workers who have died, but only the ones who died on the job are reported publicly. Some of them have died suddenly while off work, for instance, during the weekend or in their sleep, but none of their deaths are reported. Not only that, they are not included in the worker death count. For example, there are some workers who quit the job after a lot of radiation exposure, such as 50, 60 to 70 mSv, and end up dying a month later, but none of these deaths are either reported, or included in the death toll. This is the reality of the NPP workers.
Watch Oshidori’s presentation here (Japanese only)
See also: KPFA: I’ve learned over 800 people have disappeared from Fukushima plant — “May have been killed or died during work” — “Gov’t actually in business with the Yakuza” (AUDIO)