To acknowledge our interconnectedness is to acknowledge the need for caution, restraint, and, yes, rules. Almost a hundred days into Trump’s Presidency, it’s obvious that he has no agenda or coherent ideology. But two qualities that clearly have no place in his muddled, deconstructive Administration are caution and restraint. As a result, the planet, and everything on it, will suffer.
Trump’s unpopularity: is it spurring him on to make missile strikes?
Is Trump Turning to Missile Strikes to Salvage His Failing Presidency? Truth Out, , April 14, 2017 By Michael Meurer, Truthout | News Analysis Donald Trump’s April 6 missile strike against a Syrian airfield, purportedly in response to photos of injured children from President Bashar al-Assad’s April 3 sarin nerve gas attack against his own people in Idlib province, was not only a dizzying reversal of policy in only three days, but also a possible harbinger of things to come, most likely in Iran.
The missile strike came just two days after the release of a Quinnipiac University poll showing Trump’s approval rating at a historically unprecedented 35 percent for a presidency less than 90 days old. His 3 to 1 negative rating was mirrored in a March 29 Gallup poll. In response, his aides cooked up something they billed as “leadership week” to introduce Trump as Commander-in-Chief as he was also meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Iran is Assad’s strongest backer next to Russia. Any military engagement in Syria increases the chance of direct conflict with Iran. And under Trump, the US is already engaged in a series of aggressive actions against Iran that may be designed to trigger a war.
The Danger of Trump’s Failing Presidency As Trump’s knee-jerk decision to strike “the pose he needs in the narrative du jour” by attacking Syria clearly demonstrates, there is palpable danger that the precedent of provoking war for purely political reasons that was established under the presidency of George W. Bush could be reproduced under Trump in a much more condensed timeframe.
Fearing a descent into unelectability as Bush’s approval ratings plummeted in 2002-2003, Karl Rove, Dick Cheney and the White House Iraq Group manufactured the political strategy of making Iraq a nuclear weapons threat and declaring war in early 2003 to improve Bush’s chance of election in 2004. It took Bush two years of declining polls before he resorted to war as a political remedy.
Trump’s approval ratings have collapsed to historically unprecedented levels after less than three months in office. His disapproval ratings are already approaching 60 percent.
Having surrounded himself with hawkish generals, there is a risk that Trump will use war as a political remedy much more quickly than Bush did if current public opinion trends continue. The Syria attack may be the first in what could quickly become an escalating series of foreign policy aggressions………..
If this sounds alarmist, it is because it needs to be. The Iraq War that was started in order to salvage the failing presidency of George W. Bush has now destabilized half the planet half the planet. It was created with the same kind of bombast and threat inflation that is already coming out of the Trump administration. This is not a lesson that the US and the rest of the world can afford to learn anew.
Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Nebraska) has correctly observed that the Trump presidency has created “a civilization-warping crisis of public trust.” This crisis will continue to deepen even among his core supporters as Trump leaves a trail of abandoned campaign promises and investigations widen into his financial conflicts of interest and Russian connections. Trump’s false allegations of treasonous wiretapping by a former president may also spur an investigation, with legal scholars saying they constitute an impeachable offense.
Some polls show nearly 50 percent public approval for Trump’s impeachment.
Impeachment would only be a start in the long and difficult process of rebuilding a republican civic society driven by citizens, not ideologically deranged billionaires. But without it, there may be nothing left to rebuild. http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/40201-is-trump-turning-to-missile-strikes-to-salvage-his-failing-presidency
EARTH DAY IN THE AGE OF TRUMP
New Yorker, By Elizabeth Kolbert April 12, 2017 Next week, millions of Americans will celebrate Earth Day, even though, three months into Donald Trump’s Presidency, there sure isn’t much to celebrate. A White House characterized by flaming incompetence has nevertheless managed to do one thing effectively: it has trashed years’ worth of work to protect the planet. As David Horsey put it recently, in the Los Angeles Times, “Donald Trump’s foreign policy and legislative agenda may be a confused mess,” but “his administration’s attack on the environment is operating with the focus and zeal of the Spanish Inquisition.”
The list of steps that the Trump Administration has already taken to make America polluted again is so long that fully cataloguing them in this space would be impossible. Here’s a sample:
In March, the Environmental Protection Agency and the Transportation Department announced their intention to roll back fuel-economy standards for cars that were set to go into effect in 2022.
Earlier this month, the E.P.A. announced its plans to review—and presumably revoke—President Obama’s Clean Power Plan, a set of regulations aimed at reducing pollution from power plants. The Clean Power Plan would not only have cut carbon emissions by almost nine hundred million tons a year but also, according to E.P.A. figures, prevented more than thirty-five hundred premature deaths and ninety thousand asthma attacks annually. The plan is central to the commitments that the United States made under the Paris climate accord, which the Administration may or may not formally abrogate, but which it has apparently already informally abandoned.
Meanwhile, the Administration has proposed slashing the E.P.A.’s budget by thirty-one per cent, which is even more than it has proposed chopping the State Department’s budget (twenty-nine per cent) or the Labor Department’s (twenty-one per cent). The proposed cuts would entail firing a quarter of the agency’s workforce and eliminating many programs entirely, including the radiation-protection program, which does what its name suggests, and the Energy Star program, which establishes voluntary efficiency standards for electronics and appliances…….
How is it that a group as disorganized as the Trump Administration has been so methodical when it comes to the (anti) environment? The simplest answer is that money focusses the mind. Lots of corporations stand to profit from Trump’s regulatory rollback, even as American consumers suffer. Auto manufacturers, for example, had argued that the 2022 fuel-efficiency standards were too expensive to meet. (This is the case even though, when they accepted a federal bailout, during the Obama Administration, the car companies said that the standards were achievable.) Similarly, utilities have argued that the power-plant rules are too costly to comply with. Coal companies will probably benefit from the rollbacks. So, too, will oil companies, and perhaps also ceiling-fan manufacturers, though, in the case of the appliance standards, the affected manufacturers were at the table when the proposed regulations were drafted.
But, while money is clearly key, it doesn’t seem entirely sufficient as an explanation. There’s arguably more money, in the long run, to be made from imposing the regulations—from investing in solar and wind power, for example, and updating the country’s electrical grid. Writing recently in the Washington Post, Amanda Erickson proposed an alternative, or at least complementary, explanation. Combatting a global environmental problem like climate change would seem to require global coöperation. If you don’t believe in global coöperation because “America comes first,” then you’re faced with a dilemma. You can either come up with an alternative approach—tough to do—or simply pretend that the problem doesn’t exist.
“Climate change denial is not incidental to a nationalist, populist agenda,” Erickson argues. “It’s central to it.” She quotes Andrew Norton, the director of the International Institute for Environment and Development, in London, who observes, “Climate change is a highly inconvenient truth for nationalism,” as it “requires collective action between states.” This argument can, and probably should, be taken one step further. The fundamental idea behind the environmental movement—the movement that gave us Earth Day in the first place—is that everything, and therefore everyone, is connected……
For the first time, USA drops largest Non-Nuclear Bomb, in Afghanistan
US Forces Just Dropped Their Largest Non-Nuclear Bomb For The First Time, Gizmodo, Adam Clark Estes Apr 14, 2017,Citing military sources, CNN reports the United States just dropped a 9.14m-long bomb with a blast yield equivalent to 11 tons of TNT on suspected ISIS targets in Afghanistan. Nicknamed MOAB (short for “Mother of All Bombs”), the weapon is the largest non-nuclear bomb in America’s arsenal. This is the first time a MOAB has been used in combat.
Nuclear contractors not turning up for work amid Westinghouse woes
https://www.energyvoice.com/other-news/136569/nuclear-contractors-not-turning-work-amid-westinghouse-woes/ by Bloomberg – 14/04/2017The company contracted to build Scana Corp.’s two nuclear reactors in South Carolina went bankrupt. Scana’s credits ratings are, as a result, at risk of downgrades. Its shares have plunged.
And now some of the people hired to help finish the reactors aren’t showing up for work.
In a meeting Wednesday, Scana executives assured South Carolina regulators that work continues on the two reactors being installed at its V.C. Summer plant, despite Toshiba Corp.’s Westinghouse Electric unit filing for Chapter 11 last month. But the Cayce, South Carolina-based utility owner also said Westinghouse is cutting weekend and overtime work and that contractor Fluor Corp. has seen a “high incidence” of new hires failing to show up for training since Westinghouse went bankrupt.
“We’re monitoring this aspect of the project to see if that trend continues,” Stephen Byrne, a senior vice president at Scana, said, based on a transcript released by the state Public Service Commission Thursday. “Work continues on-site without substantial disruption,” he said, adding that about $120 million a month is being paid to keep up construction.
Westinghouse’s bankruptcy has thrown the fate of both Scana’s reactors and Southern’s Vogtle nuclear project in Georgia into question. Westinghouse has estimated that finishing the plants may cost another $4 billion that it can’t collect from Southern and Scana. The projects are already years behind schedule and billions of dollars over budget. Byrne identified Fluor and Bechtel as two companies capable of finishing Scana’s project should Westinghouse drop out as lead contractor.
Fluor didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Scana Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Addison said during Wednesday’s meeting that the company was recently told by Westinghouse that its V.C. Summer project accounts for $1.5 billion of those estimated cost overruns. Should Westinghouse walk away from its obligations, the utility may collect about $1.7 billion worth of damages from it and could seek compensation directly from Toshiba.
“Toshiba has a number of very valuable businesses, the most prominent of which is its flash memory business — in fact, they invented the flash memory and are Apple’s principal flash memory supplier,” Addison said. “Our assessment is that there is substantial at Toshiba to support our claim for damages if Westinghouse fails to pay.”
Scana is in the middle of a 30-day evaluation period during which it’s reviewing its options for the V.C. Summer project. The company’s considering continuing construction, abandoning plans for one of the two reactors or dropping the project altogether and seeking recovery under state law.
The entire project is about one-third complete, Byrne said.
California could get catastrophic sea level rise
Sea-level rise in California could be catastrophic, study says http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Sea-level-rise-in-California-will-be-bad-to-11069686.php By Kurtis Alexander, April 12, 2017 A state-commissioned report on climate change released Wednesday raises the stakes for fighting global warming, offering a clearer and, in some cases, more catastrophic picture of how much sea levels will rise in California.
The Bay Area will see the ocean swell as much as 3.4 feet by 2100 if significant action isn’t taken, the report says. The scientists who produced the study pegged the prospect of that outcome at 67 percent. Tougher action on greenhouse gases would mean a lesser rise of up to 2.4 feet, the study says.
The scope of the likely rise is largely in line with earlier estimates, but not completely. One worst-case scenario says ocean levels could rise 10 feet by century’s end, which would swamp countless homes, roads, harbors and even airports along the coast.
“We have learned that the potential for a higher sea level is greater than we thought,” said Gary Griggs, a professor of Earth sciences at UC Santa Cruz and one of seven climate experts who prepared the report.
The 71-page document was requested by the California Natural Resources Agency and the California Ocean Protection Council, in collaboration with the governor’s office, to help state and local officials plan for rising seas.
The report, an update of a 2013 state analysis, lays out expected ocean levels through 2150 for a number of locations and scenarios varying with the amount of greenhouse gas emissions globally.
Last year, nearly 200 nations committed in Paris to curb greenhouse gases enough so that the Earth’s temperature wouldn’t rise more than 2 degrees Celsius. The emission targets are not binding, however, and many scientists predict that President Trump’s executive order aimed at repealing Obama administration limits on coal-fired power plant pollution will prevent the U.S. from reaching its target.
The new analysis for California is based largely on recent, better information on ice melt at the Earth’s poles.
The main drivers of rising seas to date have been melting glaciers and the expansion of water that naturally occurs as temperatures warm. However, thawing ice sheets will soon become the primary contributor, according to the state-commissioned study.
The report indicates that Greenland has enough ice to raise global sea level by 24 feet while Antarctica has enough to lift oceans 187 feet. Glaciers, meanwhile, contain only enough ice to raise seas 1.5 feet.
While these continent-size masses of ice are not expected to completely melt, even a small amount of liquefaction could have big effects, particularly for California.
Because the ocean at the poles is lifted by strong gravitational forces, when that ice thaws and water is released toward the tropics, the liquid relaxes and spreads out, according to Griggs.
“It turns out for Antarctica, the biggest impact is along the California coast,” he said. For every foot of global sea-level rise caused by melting ice in the western Antarctic, California will see the the ocean rise about 1.25 feet, according to the report.
The report emphasizes the importance of preparing for the spike.
“California leads the way in both addressing climate change and protecting our coastal and ocean communities and resources,” Jenn Eckerle, deputy director of the Ocean Protection Council, said in a statement. “Our statewide policy on sea-level rise is another example of that leadership. We provide guidance to state agencies and local governments for incorporating sea-level rise projections into planning, permitting, investment, and other decisions.”
Kurtis Alexander is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. Email: kalexander@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @kurtisalexander
Rising Reality series
Read Chronicle urban design critic John King’s stories on the challenges posed by sea-level rise in the Bay Area: http://projects.sfchronicle.com/2016/sea-level-rise/
Scott Pruitt, Anti Environment Chief, states that USA should exit Paris climate deal
EPA chief Scott Pruitt tells ‘Fox & Friends’ U.S. should exit Paris climate deal, Think Progress, 14 Apr 17
He then left the interview to give the coal industry a boost. Environmental Protection Agency chief Scott Pruitt said Thursday during an appearance on Fox and Friends that the United States should exit the Paris climate agreement because the accord only serves the interests of Europe, China and India.
“Paris is something that we need to really look at closely because it is something we need to exit, in my opinion,” Pruitt told the Fox News show hosts. “It’s a bad deal for America”
Pruitt, a former Oklahoma attorney general with close ties to the state’s oil and gas industry, has labeled the agreement a “bad deal” in the past but had not previously called for the United States to withdraw from the accord……
President Donald Trump reportedly is expected to meet with his senior advisers to decide whether the Unites States should stay in the Paris climate agreement. It remains to be seen whether Trump’s daughter, Ivanka, will attend the meeting. Ivanka Trump reportedly favors the country meeting its Paris climate agreement obligations. https://thinkprogress.org/scott-pruitt-calls-for-exit-of-paris-agreement-cd3d04a5f780
American nuclear power industry prospects down the drain, after Westinghouse bankruptcy
A Bankruptcy That Wrecked Global Prospects Of American Nuclear Energy, Forbes, Kenneth Rapoza The bankruptcy of Westinghouse Electric Company (WEC) has ruined its global ambitions. While the Pennsylvania-based company asserts that its March 29 filing for creditor protection doesn’t impact its businesses globally, very few seem to believe it as its Japanese parent company Toshiba Corp. warned on Tuesday that WEC may have nuked its future…….
On Tuesday, Toshiba dimmed hopes when it reported third quarter earnings losses of $5.2 billion for the 9 months ending Dec. 31. They still cannot get their earnings properly audited, prompting rumors of a delisting on the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE). Bloomberg reported that Toshiba’s continued write-down of Westinghouse nuclear power plants, all of them delayed by years and some of them being suspended outright, could hurt the company’s balance sheet so severely that it gets sentenced to second-class status on the TSE. That would trigger a deeper sell off of index funds mandated to hold the stock. If you have to point fingers, WEC’s nuclear power plant is where to aim……..
At this point, building new AP1000 nuclear power plants seems like wishful thinking.
“I see enormous difficulties ahead for Westinghouse,” says Simon Taylor, director of the Judge Business School at the University of Cambridge. Westinghouse was working on an over $20-billion Toshiba-controlled project in the north of England called Moorside, intending to build three of its pressurized water reactors known as the AP1000. Following the bankruptcy announcement, Engie, a French utility, exercised its option to sell its 40% interest to Toshiba, and quit the project. Now Toshiba is desperate to sell the fully-owned site to competitors as it doesn’t stand a single chance to raise money needed to build the plant.
Taylor thinks Westinghouse, one of the oldest names in U.S. electric power, will now have a harder time. China was their biggest hope.
“The Chinese, so far as I can tell, will never buy another AP1000 again,” Taylor says…….
[In India] . Experts doubt that any commercial contract could be signed until there is a clarity about Toshiba’s exit and Westinghouse’s own future while the calls to scrap the project altogether are gaining momentum…..
In Eastern Europe, Westinghouse prospects look even bleaker. Westinghouse has always relied in the U.S. geopolitical clout to get business there. In order to weaken Russia’s influence in the region Washington would all but force former communist countries into choosing WEC’s often untested offering or even scrapping competitors’ projects. But with all that political support the problem has always been in Westinghouse’s inability to finance its projects.
Westinghouse signed a contract in Bulgaria in 2014 for the construction of an AP1000 power plant at the Kozloduy site. There has been little progress since then as neither the client nor the vendor are capable of finding money for the project.
Back home, both of the two nuclear power plants being built in the U.S are AP1000s. Both are a combined $17 billion over budget.
Over the next 12 years, the U.S. has around 15 nuclear power plants on paper. Of those 12, five have been suspended, including Westinghouse’s planned 2029 project with Duke Energy in Florida to build two reactors. Their other Duke project, in South Carolina, is now delayed by at least three years and with this bankruptcy, will probably never get built. WEC’s two new AP1000 projects are licensed by Duke. “We’ve been monitoring Westinghouse and their other projects here and across the world…but we are not making any decisions to build and not going to speculate on that right now,” says Rita Sipe, a spokesperson for Duke Energy.
The Economist magazine speculated on April 1 that there would be ugly lawsuits in South Carolina and Georgia, adding that the future of the AP1000 “looks bleak”. Sadly, it was not an April Fool’s joke.
While it is certainly common in nuclear power plant construction to witness delays and cost over-runs, WEC seems to have carved out a niche of notoriety here. It’s finally bankrupted them.
“It’s hard to see who would be able, willing and permitted to buy WEC,” says Taylor. The Trump Administration says it is seeking a non-Chinese owner of Westinghouse. WEC is not yet talking about selling assets……https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2017/04/13/a-bankruptcy-that-wrecked-global-prospects-of-american-nuclear-energy/#608e8b7e17a1
Pentagon’s new killing systems for space
Why is America Sending an Aircraft Carrier Near North Korea?, National Interest, Kris Osborn, 12 Apr 17 “……….The Pentagon is also substantially increasing its arsenal of Ground Based Interceptors, or GBIs, currently stationed at Vandenberg AFB, Calif., and Ft. Greeley, Ala. The plan, first announced by former Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel several years ago, aims to increase the number of GBIs to 44 by 2017. GBIs are interceptor missiles designed to shoot up into space and destroy approaching enemy ICBMs.
Mann praised the Army soldiers who work on GBI preparation, maintenance and operation at Ft. Greely, explaining how they endure difficult weather conditions to serve America better protect the U.S. homeland.
Multi-Object Kill Vehicle:
The Pentagon’s Missile Defense Agency is in the early phases of engineering a next-generation “Star Wars”-type technology able to knock multiple incoming enemy targets out of space with a single interceptor, officials said.
The new system, called Multi-Object Kill Vehicle, or MOKV, is designed to release from a Ground Based Interceptor and destroy approaching Inter Continental Ballistic Missiles, or ICBMs — and also take out decoys traveling alongside the incoming missile threat.
“We will develop and test, by 2017, MOKV command and control strategies in both digital and hardware-in-the-Loop venues that will prove we can manage the engagements of many kill vehicles on many targets from a single interceptor. We will also invest in the communication architectures and guidance technology that support this game changing approach,” a Missile Defense Agency spokesman, told Scout Warrior last year.
Decoys or countermeasures are missile-like structures, objects or technologies designed to throw off or confuse the targeting and guidance systems of an approaching interceptor in order to increase the probability that the actual missile can travel through to its target.
If the seeker or guidance systems of a “kill vehicle” technology on a GBI cannot discern an actual nuclear-armed ICBM from a decoy – the dangerous missile is more likely to pass through and avoid being destroyed. MOKV is being developed to address this threat scenario.
The Missile Defense Agency has awarded MOKV development deals to Boeing, Lockheed and Raytheon as part of a risk-reduction phase able to move the technology forward, MDA officials said.
Steve Nicholls, Director of Advanced Air & Missile Defense Systems for Raytheon, told Scout Warrior last year that the MOKV is being developed to provide the MDA with “a key capability for its Ballistic Missile Defense System. The idea is to discriminate lethal objects from countermeasures and debris. The kill vehicle, launched from the ground-based interceptor extends the ground-based discrimination capability with onboard sensors and processing to ensure the real threat is eliminated.”
MOKV could well be described as a new technological step in the ongoing maturation of what was originally conceived of in the Reagan era as “Star Wars” – the idea of using an interceptor missile to knock out or destroy an incoming enemy nuclear missile in space. This concept was originally greeted with skepticism and hesitation as something that was not technologically feasible.
Not only has this technology come to fruition in many respects, but the capability continues to evolve with systems like MOKV. MOKV, to begin formal product development by 2022, is being engineered with a host of innovations to include new sensors, signal processors, communications technologies and robotic manufacturing automation for high-rate tactical weapons systems, Nicholls explained.
The trajectory of an enemy ICBM includes an initial “boost” phase where it launches from the surface up into space, a “midcourse” phase where it travels in space above the earth’s atmosphere and a “terminal” phase wherein it re-enters the earth’s atmosphere and descends to its target. MOKV is engineered to destroy threats in the “midcourse” phase while the missile is traveling through space.
An ability to destroy decoys as well as actual ICBMs is increasingly vital in today’s fast-changing technological landscape because potential adversaries continue to develop more sophisticated missiles, countermeasures and decoy systems designed to make it much harder for interceptor missile to distinguish a decoy from an actual missile.
As a result, a single intercept able to destroy multiple targets massively increases the likelihood that the incoming ICBM threat will actually be destroyed more quickly without needing to fire another Ground Based Interceptor.
Raytheon describes is developmental approach as one that hinges upon what’s called “open-architecture,” a strategy designed to engineer systems with the ability to easily embrace and integrate new technologies as they emerge. This strategy will allow the MOKV platform to better adjust to fast-changing threats, Nicholls said.
The MDA development plan includes the current concept definition phase, followed by risk reduction and proof of concept phases leading to a full development program, notionally beginning in fiscal year 2022, Raytheon officials explained.
MDA officials have told Scout Warrior that the MOKV program shows great promise for the future of missile defense technology.
While the initial development of MOKV is aimed at configuring the “kill vehicle” for a GBI, there is early thinking about integrating the technology onto a Standard Missile-3, or SM-3, an interceptor missile also able to knock incoming ICBMs out of space. The SM-3 is also an exo-atmopheric “kill vehicle,” meaning it can destroy short and intermediate range incoming targets; its “kill vehilce” has no explosives but rather uses kinetic energy to collide with and obliterate its target. The resulting impact is the equivalent to a 10-ton truck traveling at 600 mph, Raytheon statements said. http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/why-america-sending-aircraft-carrier-near-north-korea-20136?page=2
Hans M. Kristensen on New START 2017: Russia Decreasing, US Increasing Deployed Warheads
New START 2017: Russia Decreasing, US Increasing Deployed Warheads https://fas.org/blogs/security/2017/04/newstart2017/ Apr.03, 2017 By Hans M. Kristensen
The latest set of New START aggregate data released by the US State Department shows that Russia is decreasing its number of deployed strategic warheads while the United States is increasing the number of warheads it deploys on its strategic forces.
The Russian reduction, which was counted as of March 1, 2017, is a welcoming development following its near-continuous increase of deployed strategic warheads compared with 2013. Bus as I previously concluded, the increase was a fluctuation caused by introduction of new launchers, particularly the Borei-class SSBN.
The US increase, similarly, does not represent a buildup – a mischaracterization used by some to describe the earlier Russian increase – but a fluctuation caused by the force loading on the Ohio-class SSBNs.
Strategic Warheads
The data shows that Russia as of March 1, 2017 deployed 1,765 strategic warheads, down by 31 warheads compared with October 2016. That means Russia is counted as deploying 228 strategic warheads more than when New START went into force in February 2011. It will have to offload an additional 215 warheads before February 2018 to meet the treaty limit. That will not be a problem.
The number of Russian warheads counted by the New START treaty is only a small portion of its total inventory of warheads. We estimate that Russia has a military stockpile of 4,300 warheads with more retired warheads in reserve for a total inventory of 7,000 warheads.
The United States was counted as deploying 1,411 strategic warheads as of March 1, 2017, an increase of 44 warheads compared with the 1,367 strategic deployed warheads counted in October 2016. The United States is currently below the treaty limit and can add another 139 warheads before the treaty enters into effect in February 2018.
The number of US warheads counted by the New START treaty is only a small portion of its total inventory of warheads. We estimate that the United States has a military stockpile of 4,000 warheads with more retired warheads in reserve for a total inventory of 6,800 warheads.
Strategic Launchers
The New START data shows that Russia as of March 1, 2017 deployed 523 strategic launchers, an increase of 15 launchers compared with October 2016. That means Russia has two (2) more launched deployed today than when New START entered into force in February 2011.
Russia could hypothetically increase its force structure by another 177 launchers over the next ten months and still be in compliance with New START. But its current nuclear modernization program is not capable of doing so.
Under the treaty, Russia is allowed to have a total of 800 deployed and non-deployed strategic launchers. The data shows that it currently has 816, only 16 above the treaty limit. That means Russia overall has scrapped 49 total launchers (deployed and non-deployed) since New START was signed in February 2011.
The United States is counted as deploying 673 strategic launchers as of March 1, 2017, a decrease of eight (8) launchers compared with October 2016. That means the United States has reduced its force structure by 209 deployed strategic launchers since February 2011.
The US reduction has been achieved by stripping essentially all excess bombers of nuclear equipment, reducing the ICBM force to roughly 400, and making significant progress on reducing the number of launch tubes on each SSBN from 24 to 20.
The United States is below the limit for strategic launchers and could hypothetically add another 27 launchers, a capability it currently has. Overall, the United States has scrapped 304 total launchers (deployed and non-deployed) since the treaty entered into force in February 2011, most of which were so-called phantom launchers that were retired but still contained equipment that made them accountable under the treaty.
The United States currently is counted as having 820 deployed and non-deployed strategic launchers. It will need to destroy another 20 to be in compliance with New START by February 2018.
Conclusions and Outlook
Both Russia and the United States are on track to meet the limits of the New START treaty by February 2018. The latest aggregate data shows that Russia is again reducing its deployed strategic warheads and both countries are already below the treaty’s limit for deployed strategic launchers.
In a notorious phone call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump, the Russian president reportedly raised the possibility of extending the New START treaty by another five years beyond 2021. But Trump apparently brushed aside the offer saying New START was a bad deal. After the call, Trump said the United States had “fallen behind on nuclear weapons capacity.”
In reality, the United States has not fallen behind but has 150 strategic launchers more than Russia. The New START treaty is not a “bad deal” but an essential tool to provide transparency of strategic nuclear forces and keeping a lid on the size of the arsenals. Russia and the United States should move forward without hesitation to extend the treaty by another five years.
Additional resources:
- New START Aggregate Data (as of March 1, 2017)
- Status of World Nuclear Forces
US reaffirms Iran nuclear agreement
http://www.argusmedia.com/news/article/?id=1440687 11 Apr 2017, Washington, 11 April (Argus) — The US administration’s new focus on crises in Syria and North Korea is highlighting a full retreat from President Donald Trump’s pledge to rescind the nuclear agreement his predecessor signed with Iran.
US secretary of state Rex Tillerson today reaffirmed support for the multilateral agreement — the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action — that lifted restrictions on crude exports from Iran in January 2016. The EU, Russia and China also are parties to the agreement.
The G7 foreign ministers, meeting in Lucca, Italy, in a statement hailed the agreement’s “important contribution to the non-proliferation regime.” Implementation of the agreement will “build confidence that Iran’s nuclear program is exclusively peaceful in nature,” the ministers said.
The US’ approach to Iran so far has not departed greatly from the path former president Barack Obama’s administration paved following the lifting of the nuclear-related sanctions, even though Trump still denounces the deal. Trump imposed new sanctions on Iran following tests of ballistic missiles, just like his predecessor did. And the Pentagon continues to view Iran as a threat to US interests in the Middle East, including the freedom of navigation in the straits of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb.
Iran since the lifting of the nuclear-related sanctions increased production by more than 900,000 b/d to 3.8mn b/d in February.
Senior White House officials contend that Iran’s missile tests are evidence of a covert nuclear weapons program. Iran says its program is defensive in nature.
The US administration promised to push for a stronger international response to the missile tests than Obama did. But today’s G7 statement only expresses “deep regret” over the tests.
The need to coordinate sanctions programs with the EU is likely a key driver in the new administration’s approach. EU officials also persuaded US senators to delay advancing a widely supported bill to expand the scope of sanctions on Iran over the missile tests. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee will wait until after the Iranian presidential election on 19 May to schedule a vote on the bill, committee chairman Bob Corker (R-Tennessee) said.
The G7 statement calls on Russia and Iran, as allies of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s regime, to ensure Syria’s compliance with the UN convention banning the use of chemical weapons. But the US is directing the bulk of its criticism over Assad’s alleged use of chemical weapons against civilians at Russia.
New radiation detection system begins operations at Port of Los Angeles
https://homelandprepnews.com/stories/21961-new-radiation-detection-system-begins-operations-port-los-angeles/ The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) recently announced that a new radiation detection system recently began operations at the Trans Pacific Container Service Corporation (TraPac) terminal at the Port of Los Angeles.
While all incoming cargo into the port is scanned by radiation detecting equipment, the new system automates the process to expedite trade and provide a needed layer of nuclear protection. Approximately two million containers pass through the TraPac terminal every single year.
The new process begins as rail-bound cargo is placed on conveyers by automated carriers. The system then transports the cargo through a radiation portal monitor for detection. If all cargo passes the security check, the cargo is then transported to rail carriers for transportation to its final destination.
TraPac originally envisioned the system as part of a move to automate scanning processes. At the same time, U.S. Customs and Border Protection needed a new means to scan ship-to-rail containers for radioactive materials. DHS then worked with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to test, evaluate, and approve the new system for live rail operations.
DHS said the new system offers a more efficient approach to preventing illicit radioactive materials from entering the country.
US: Nuclear waste mislabeled at Washington state site
Skagit Valley Herald, Apr 13, 2017 RICHLAND, Wash. (AP) — A shipment of nuclear waste from a commercial power plant located on the Hanford Nuclear Reservation in Washington state was improperly labeled when it was trucked to a commercial disposal site, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission said.
As a result, Energy Northwest, the consortium that operates the Columbia Generating Station nuclear plant, has been temporarily barred by state regulators from sending waste to the US Ecology disposal site located on leased Hanford land, the Tri-City Herald (http://bit.ly/2pyWwWi ) reported Thursday.
The Energy Northwest plant makes electricity and is located on the sprawling Hanford site, which is half the size of Rhode Island. Energy Northwest is separate from Hanford’s past mission of creating plutonium for the nation’s nuclear weapons, which ended in the 1980s. Plutonium production left Hanford with the nation’s largest collection of radioactive waste.
The incident occurred when a Nov. 9 shipment from the power plant to the disposal site turned out to be more radioactive than claimed on the shipping manifest, the newspaper said…….http://www.goskagit.com/news/state/us-nuclear-waste-mislabeled-at-washington-state-site/article_77794de4-a84d-5bcf-9acb-cadc1146f9b3.html
USA asks China “to take additional steps” to rein in the Kim Jong-Un regime.
As N. Korea threatens nuclear attacks, U.S. calls on China ‘to take additional steps’ by WorldTribune Staff, April 11, 2017
As North Korea warned it has its “nuclear sight focused” on the United States, the Trump administration said it has called on China “to take additional steps” to rein in the Kim Jong-Un regime.
President Donald Trump tweeted on April 11: “I explained to the President of China that a trade deal with the U.S. will be far better for them if they solve the North Korean problem!”
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, in an interview with ABC News on April 10, said: “I think we need to allow them (China) time to take actions and we will continue to be in very close discussions with them,” adding that the conversations between the two countries have been “very candid.”
North Korea’s official Rodong Sinmun newspaper said the country was prepared to respond to any aggression by the United States.
“Our revolutionary strong army is keenly watching every move by enemy elements with our nuclear sight focused on the U.S. invasionary bases not only in South Korea and the Pacific operation theatre but also in the U.S. mainland,” it said.
Pyongyang issued the warning as a U.S. Navy aircraft carrier strike group sailed towards the western Pacific……http://www.worldtribune.com/as-n-korea-threatens-nuclear-attacks-u-s-calling-on-china-to-take-additional-steps/
As Navy warships approach, North Korea threatens nuclear strike on USA
North Korea threatens U.S. with #nuclear strike as Navy warships approach https://www.dailydot.com/layer8/north-korea-threatens-nuclear-attack/ David Gilmour—\Apr 11 2017, North Korea this week threatened to launch a nuclear attack on the United States at the first sign of aggression from the U.S. Navy strike group that President Donald Trump ordered to the Korean peninsula.
It was always a mistake, trying to turn nuclear bomb project into (costly) nuclear power
Nuclear Power’s Original Mistake: Trying to Domesticate the Bomb, Bloomberg View, APRIL 8, 2017
1 This Month
25 June- THE PUKE ON NUKES
Thursday, June 25, 2026
7pm Central Time (8pm ET, 6pm MT, 5pm PT) UTC – 5
From NRC & DOE Deregulation to Techno-Fascist Billionaires Going Nuclear, Plus a Few Songs from Atomic Cabaret REGISTER
26 June – Radiation Trainwreck at the NRC / Join the Protect Better Campaign – https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/4ZlZ5_qLSHGiLSCg8FF6Bg#/registration
1st July – Webinar Waste of Space: The Environmental Harm of Military and Civil Space Activity st July, 7 pm
Report Launch Online: We are seeing an increasing exploitation of space for military and commercial purposes. This must change.
Protect Sazan Island from the Trump family! https://secure.avaaz.org/campaign/en/protect_sazan_island_from_the_trump_family_loc/?bqFCVab&v=174511&cl=22707147157&_checksum=5e9dde668860e8231c33699735e16a1fbf22ab2cb01da50c999fe8732b9775ef&utm_source=email&utm_medium=blast_email&utm_campaign=174511
Cuba Is Not a Failed State – It Is a Besieged State
PETITION: “Global Appeal to Endorse Palestinian Right of Return of Refugees”
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