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Muddled maths on the supposed costs of storing nuclear waste at Yucca Mt

Uncertain Costs for Renewed Nuclear Waste Push in Nevada, Roll Call ,The controversial Yucca Mountain plan would spur a $260 million spending increase, but the math is muddled Oct 10, 2017 

 Jeremy Dillon, A House bill to restart the process of making Nevada’s Yucca Mountain a permanent repository for nuclear waste would increase spending by $260 million over the next 10 years, the Congressional Budget Office said Friday in a report that acknowledges some uncertain numbers.

The CBO’s score could be a hurdle for the Yucca bill by forcing its backers to offset the cost by cutting other federal spending under pay-as-you-go budget mandates. The bill moved out of the Energy and Commerce Committee with surprisingly bipartisan support considering how the issue had divided Capitol Hill while Sen. Harry Reid of Nevada was majority leader. Reid didn’t seek reelection in 2016.

Among its key provisions, the bill would provide incentives in the form of federal dollars for infrastructure improvements to states and communities willing to host the nuclear waste at temporary storage sites and the long-term disposal facility at Yucca Mountain.

According to the CBO, those benefit payments account for the bill’s 10-year, $260-million direct-spending increase. The agency also noted that the 10-year increase would have little effect on the long-term costs of the nation’s existing waste disposal responsibilities under the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982, which are likely to stretch through much of the 21st century and cost nearly $100 billion…….

DOE estimated in 2016 that its legal liabilities resulting from its failure to move the waste would total $25 billion……

Rep. Dina Titus, a Democrat who represents much of Las Vegas, said in a statement Friday that the CBO report “is seriously flawed.”

“It does not take into account the cost of building the Yucca Mountain repository — a figure that’s estimated at more than $95 billion,” Titus said. “It ignores the fact that the Nuclear Waste Fund, which is to pay for the project, will diminish in the coming years as older nuclear power plants shut down. It also projects costs for only 10 years without accounting for the lifetime of the project which is supposedly designed to safely contain nuclear waste for 10,000 years.”

Titus, instead, pitched her own bill, which would advance a nuclear waste disposal site only with the signoff from the state and local government. https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/97434-2

October 14, 2017 Posted by | USA, wastes | Leave a comment

South Carolina’s failed nuclear project – SCANA accuses Santee Cooper of misleading leaders for years

SCANA accuses Santee Cooper of misleading leaders for years in failed nuclear project, South Strand News, By Andy Shain Post and Courier, Oct 11, 2017 

As they fend off lawsuits from workers, ratepayers, contractors and investors, the partners in South Carolina’s failed nuclear project have turned on each other.

South Carolina’s largest company, SCANA, is accusing its utility partner Santee Cooper of misleading state leaders for years about its role in the failed $9 billion project to build two nuclear reactors north of Columbia. SCANA’s top lawyer, Jim Stuckey, made that allegation in a recent letter obtained by The Post and Courier.

Stuckey accused state-owned Santee Cooper of painting an inaccurate picture that minimized its input and oversight on the V.C. Summer plant expansion in an attempt to shift blame for the expensive debacle onto SCANA. Stuckey sent the letter, dated Oct. 4, to Michael Baxley, his counterpart at Santee Cooper.

SCANA, the parent of South Carolina Electric & Gas, also accused Santee Cooper of failing to share a key document ahead of a legislative hearing last month, leaving SCANA officials blindsided and unprepared for lawmakers’ questions…….http://www.southstrandnews.com/state-news/scana-accuses-santee-cooper-of-misleading-leaders-for-years-in/article_82b4465c-ae89-11e7-924a-933263c56c1b.html

October 14, 2017 Posted by | secrets,lies and civil liberties, USA | Leave a comment

Radioactive waste is to be removed from a contaminated section of Ridgewood

EPA targets radioactive site in Ridgewood, Times Ledger, 13 Oct 17, Radioactive waste is to be removed from a contaminated section of Ridgewood which was once the location of a chemical plant that harvested raw materials from sand and dumped the refuse into the sewer.

The state Department of Environmental Conservation is backing the $39.9 million effort by the EPA to clean up the site in Ridgewood, which was placed on the National Priorities List in 2013 and is part of the agency’s Superfund program.

The parcel of land — which became contaminated while under use by the Wolff-Alport Chemical Company from 1920 to 1954 — will see all business tenants relocated, buildings demolished, soil removed and sewers replaced, according to the EPA. The three-quarter-acre patch of contaminated land is located at 1125 to 1139 Irving Ave. and 1514 Cooper Ave. It used to be home to Jarabacoa Deli Grocery, as well as office space, residential apartments, several auto repair shops and warehousing space…….https://www.timesledger.com/stories/2017/41/radioactive_2017_10_13_q.html

October 14, 2017 Posted by | USA, wastes | Leave a comment

Donald Trump versus the freedom of the press

Trump finds the First Amendment ‘frankly disgusting’ https://www.deathandtaxesmag.com/348184/trump-finds-the-first-amendment-frankly-disgusting/In News by Jordan Freiman / October 11, 2017 Donald Trump on Wednesday continued his ongoing feud with NBC over a report that Secretary of State Rex Tillerson called the president a “fucking moron” during a meeting at the Pentagon back in July. That comment was reportedly in response to Trump demanding that the U.S. increase its nuclear stockpile 10-fold, an absurd request considering we have plenty of nukes to wipe out every single person on the planet many times over.

Trump, as he did with the initial “fucking moron” report (which has been corroborated by multiple sources), called the nuke story “Fake News.” Defense Secretary James Mattis chimed in to call the latest report “absolutely false” as well, but Trump took things a step further during a press conference on Wednesday.

“That was just fake news by NBC, which gives a lot of fake news lately,” Trump told reporters, claiming he just wanted to make sure the U.S.’s nuclear arsenal was in good shape. For what it’s worth, Trump previously boastedabout how the nuclear arsenal has in fact been “modernized,” despite it not being possible to complete such an undertaking in just six months.

“It’s frankly disgusting the way the press is able to write whatever they want to write,” the president of the United States said, “and people should look into it.”

Well, people have looked into it. Turns out we’ve got this whole First Amendment thing which includes freedom of the press.There are obviously limits on that freedom, and those are typically hashed out in court. Under normal circumstances, the president is supposed to uphold the constitution. It’s in the oath of office, after all. Instead, Trump continues to threaten to pull NBC’s broadcasting license.

October 13, 2017 Posted by | civil liberties, politics, USA | Leave a comment

Donald Trump wanted 8 fold increase in nuclear weapons: that’s when Secretary of State Rex Tillerson called Trump a “moron”

Donald Trump’s nuclear demand led to Rex Tillerson’s moron jibe THE AUSTRALIAN, RHYS BLAKELY,RICHARD LLOYD PARRY 11 Oct 17 A call by Donald Trump for an eightfold increase in the number of US nuclear warheads led to his secretary of state calling him a moron, according to new reports of a meeting at the Pentagon.

Mr Trump made the request in July during a wide-ranging review of America’s military position and after being shown a slide depicting the size of the US nuclear arsenal, three officials who were in the room told NBC News.

He is said to have pointed out the highest number on the chart — about 32,000 nuclear warheads in the late 1960s — and told his advisers that he wanted to have a similar number once more. The US is estimated to have about 4,000 warheads.

Senior advisers explained that the request would break an array of weapons treaties and risk triggering a new global arms race. The meeting included Joseph Dunford, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, Jim Mattis, the defence secretary, and Rex Tillerson, the secretary of state.

After Mr Trump had left, Mr Tillerson allegedly called the president a moron.

Mr Trump yesterday dismissed the story as inaccurate, tweeting: “Fake @NBCNews made up a story that I wanted a ‘tenfold’ increase in our US nuclear arsenal. Pure fiction, made up to demean.”

He added on Twitter: “With all of the Fake News coming out of NBC and the Networks, at what point is it appropriate to challenge their Licence? Bad for country!”

Broadcast licenses are administered by the Federal Communications Commission and are not usually revoked unless a holder commits serious illegal conduct.

Mr Trump had described the alleged “moron” comment as fake news on Tuesday but added that he and Mr Tillerson should perhaps compare IQ scores…….. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/the-times/donald-trumps-nuclear-demand-led-to-rex-tillersons-moron-jibe/news-story/bf43b88334e0e0e63579f9a60b3b7d6b

October 13, 2017 Posted by | politics, USA, weapons and war | Leave a comment

The role of climate change in California’s wildfires

Scientists See Climate Change in California’s Wildfires
Strong winds and months of record-high temperatures have fueled the destructive fires, Scientific American, By Debra Kahn, Anne C. Mulkern, E&E News on October 12, 2017 

SANTA ROSA, Calif. — As wildfires engulf nearly 170,000 acres of Northern California wine country, questions are swirling about the role of climate change in causing damage of historic proportions.

The fires, which started late Sunday night in the hills of Napa and Sonoma counties, quickly ballooned to 22 separate conflagrations in eight counties, killing at least 21 people by Tuesday evening. The Tubbs Fire, in Sonoma County, has been responsible for at least 11 deaths so far, making it the sixth-deadliest fire in state history. Nearly 300 people are still reported missing and 25,000 have been evacuated in Sonoma County alone, with more than 3,500 homes and businesses destroyed.

Strong winds were responsible for the fires’ quick incursion into urban areas, but months of record-high temperatures, preceded by heavy rainfall last winter, also fueled the destructive power of the fire that burned through the region, climate experts said.

Residents of inland Northern California are now experiencing the confluence of these trends. The fires are expected to persist for weeks, until the rainy season begins next month. Strong winds are predicted to return as soon as tomorrow, giving firefighters a narrow window to get the blazes under control…….

Temperatures soared in the San Francisco Bay Area in early September, hitting 106 degrees Fahrenheit in San Francisco, a new record, and 108 in San Rafael, north of the city. It was the warmest summer in more than 100 years of record keeping, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with UCLA: “It beat the previous record by a pretty wide margin.”

Those high temperatures dried out vegetation throughout the area, he said. While fires are a part of life in California, this one became more destructive because it had so much dry brush and grassland — fed by last winter’s rains — to burn.

Powerful winds pushed the flames farther, Swain said. Known locally as the Diablo wind, they’re similar to the Santa Ana wind in Southern California, and they reached an unusually high speed of 79 mph Sunday night. Coupled with relatively low humidity, the wind patterns quickly created havoc.

“This is very much a weather-driven fire, but there is definitely a climate component to the overall story, too,” Swain said.

The dead brush and trees were the result not just of this year’s hot temperatures, but also of the state’s historic drought, which officially ended with the rainfall last winter, said LeRoy Westerling, a management professor at the University of California, Merced’s School of Engineering.

Scientists typically hesitate to say any specific event happened because of climate change, Westerling said. Yet, he said, “we know that these events are affected by the weather and the climate and how dry it is. The climate system has been altered by people … all the weather we’re experiencing and what’s driving these wildfire events is climate change.”…… https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/scientists-see-climate-change-in-californias-wildfires/

October 13, 2017 Posted by | climate change, USA | Leave a comment

Donald Trump threatens NBC TV Network over its negative coverage of himself

Donald Trump threatens NBC’s broadcast licence over nuclear story he says was ‘pure fiction’  http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-12/donald-trump-threatens-nbc-broadcast-licence/9041652 United States President Donald Trump has threatened NBC’s broadcast licences because he is not happy with how its news division has covered him.

But experts say his threats are not likely to lead to any action.

The NBC network itself does not need a licence to operate, but individual stations do.

NBC owns several stations in major cities.

Stations owned by other companies such as Tribune and Cox carry NBC’s news shows and other programs elsewhere.

Licences come from the Federal Communications Commission, an independent government agency whose chairman is a Trump appointee.

Mr Trump said NBC “made up” a story about the President’s plans for the country’s nuclear arsenal.

He tweeted that the broadcaster “made up a story that I wanted a ‘tenfold’ increase in our US nuclear arsenal. Pure fiction, made up to demean. NBC = CNN!”

October 13, 2017 Posted by | civil liberties, politics, USA | Leave a comment

Donald Trump will ignore allies, and his own defense secretary, and withdraw from Iran nuclear accord

Trump breaks with allies as US goes it alone on Iran, Channel News Asia, 13 Oct 17  WASHINGTON: President Donald Trump will unveil a new US Iran strategy on Friday (Oct 13) and is expected to withdraw backing from the Iran nuclear accord, undermining a landmark victory of multilateral diplomacy.White House spokeswoman Sarah Huckabee Sanders said Trump would unveil a broad plan to counter Iran at 12.45pm (1645 GMT).

She did not elaborate, but Trump is expected to declare to Congress that retaining the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement is no longer in the US national interest.

This in itself does not mean the deal will collapse. US lawmakers will have 60 days to decide whether they want to “snap back” the sanctions Washington has suspended.

But it will mark a clear break with America’s allies, who have pleaded with Trump to respect the accord, and a fierce blow to the multilateral international order.

The agreement was signed between Iran and six world powers – Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the US – at talks coordinated by the European Union.

 UN nuclear inspectors say Iran is meeting the technical requirements of its side of the bargain, dramatically curtailing its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.

So, while US officials still insist that “America First” does not mean “America Alone,” on this issue they are starkly isolated. The other signatories all back the deal.

……… On Tuesday, British Prime Minister Theresa May called the White House to impress upon it her government’s “strong commitment to the deal alongside our European partners.”

In parallel, her foreign minister, Boris Johnson, told his US counterpart Secretary of State Rex Tillerson “that the nuclear deal was an historic achievement.”

“It was the culmination of 13 years of painstaking diplomacy and has increased security, both in the region and in the UK,” he argued.

But the US administration barely acknowledged the calls, and European diplomats in Washington privately complain that their message is not getting through.

………Last week, Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis was asked whether he believes the Iran deal remains in the US national interest.

“Yes, senator, I do,” he replied. “I believe at this point in time, absent indication to the contrary, it is something that the president should consider staying with.”……… http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/trump-breaks-with-allies-as-us-goes-it-alone-on-iran-9306184

October 13, 2017 Posted by | politics international, USA | Leave a comment

Senator Bob Corker says  President Donald Trump Could Bring About World War III

 President Donald Trump Could Bring About World War III, Senator Bob Corker Charges |

TODAY‘Reckless’ Trump threatens World War III, says US Senator The New Daily, 10 Oct 17, Donald Trump is treating the US presidency like “a reality show” and making reckless threats that could put the world “on the path to World War III”, according to the chairman of the US foreign relations committee.

In an extraordinary condemnation of Mr Trump, Republican Senator Bob Corker said the President acts “like he’s doing The Apprentice or something.”

“He concerns me … he would have to concern anyone who cares about our nation,” Mr Corker told The New York Times in a 25-minute phone interview following a day-long Twitter spat between the two former friends.

At the height of that spat, Mr Corker said Mr Trump had turned the White House into “an adult day care centre”.

But he went much further in the Times interview, alleging senior White House officials spend most of their days trying to rein in Mr Trump’s worst instincts.

“I know for a fact that every single day at the White House, it’s a situation of trying to contain him,” the Times quoted the Senator as saying.

He accused the president of undercutting Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, and his attempts at finding a diplomatic solution to the North Korea crisis.

“A lot of people think that there is some kind of ‘good cop, bad cop’ act underway, but that’s just not true,” Mr Corker said of the relationship between the president and Mr Tillerson.

The president had undermined diplomatic efforts with his heavy-handed use of Twitter too.

“I know he has hurt, in several instances, he’s hurt us as it relates to negotiations that were underway by tweeting things out,” Mr Corker said.

The Times reported that while Mr Corker wouldn’t directly answer when asked whether he thought Mr. Trump was fit for the presidency, he did say the commander in chief was not fully aware of the power of his office.

“I don’t think he appreciates that when the president of the United States speaks and says the things that he does, the impact that it has around the world, especially in the region that he’s addressing,” he said. “And so, yeah, it’s concerning to me.”

The White House refused to comment on Senator Corker’s attack. Mr Trump had made no direct response on Twitter by Monday morning, but did reiterate an earlier position on North Korea…..http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2017/10/10/donald-trump-work-war-iii-bob-corker/

October 11, 2017 Posted by | politics, politics international, USA | Leave a comment

Donald Trump’s complicated plan to address the Iran nuclear agreement

Trump’s plan for the Iran nuclear deal runs straight through a diplomatic minefield

  • President Donald Trump is expected to tell Congress that the Iran nuclear deal is not in the country’s national security interest.
  • The Trump administration will try to coerce Iranians and Europeans back to the negotiating table to secure a tougher deal and address other issues.
  • Some say American financial might will allow Trump to prevail, while others say he has slim odds of getting what he wants and risks inadvertently blowing up the deal.

CNBC  11 Oct 17 Tom DiChristopher | 

President Donald Trump has made up his mind about how he will seek to toughen an historic international accord to limit Iran’s nuclear program, according to the White House.

“The president’s reached a decision on an overall Iran strategy. He wants to make sure that we have a broad policy to deal with that, not just one part of it,” White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders told reporters on Tuesday.

Trump will elaborate on details of the plan later this week, Sanders added. The Washington Post previously reported the president will deliver his decision on Thursday.

 According to multiple reports, Trump will refuse to certify to Congressthat the landmark 2015 Iran nuclear deal remains in the U.S. national security interest. Yet he is expected to stop short of encouraging lawmakers to immediately reimpose sanctions, and instead try to coerce Europeans and Iranians back to the negotiating table……. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/10/trumps-iran-nuclear-deal-strategy-runs-through-a-diplomatic-minefield.html

October 11, 2017 Posted by | politics international, USA | 1 Comment

Email to Hawaii University – ‘In the event of a nuclear attack’ 

Ominous email: ‘In the event of a nuclear attack’ http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/36557009/ominous-email-in-the-event-of-a-nuclear-attack  October 11th 2017,  By HNN Staff MANOA, OAHU (HawaiiNewsNow) –

University of Hawaii students and staff probably did a double take at the subject line of an email that arrived in their email inboxes Monday.”In the event of a nuclear attack,” it said.

The email is part of a broad state campaign to better prepare residents and visitors for the unlikely but not impossible threat of a nuclear missile attack that North Korea poses to the islands.

“In light of concerns about North Korea missile tests, state and federal agencies are providing information about nuclear threats and what to do in the unlikely event of a nuclear attack and radiation emergency,” the UH email said.

The email also told students and faculty to be aware of emergency sirens and to follow instructions on “sheltering in place.”

The informational message comes amid rising tensions with North Korea, and as the president indicates that diplomatic efforts may have stalled.

October 11, 2017 Posted by | USA, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Trump’s presidency a ” reality television show” – leading to World War 3 ?

Bob Corker Gives Trump A Taste Of His Own Medicine: A Twitter Insult

Republican Bob Corker: President Trump Could Start ‘World War III’  http://theantimedia.org/world-war-iii-alarm-sounded-bob-corker-trump/  Leading Republican Senator says Trump is treating the presidency like a reality television show. (ANTIWAR.COM) 10 Oct 17, — Top ranking Republican Senator Bob Corker (R-TN), the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, expressed concerns Sunday that President Trump’s reckless threats toward other countries “could set the nation on the path to World War III.”

Trump spent the better part of the weekend on Twitter angrily condemning Corker, accusing him of being behind the P5+1 nuclear deal with Iran, and saying he’s not running for another term in office because “he doesn’t have the guts.”

Corker said that top administration officials are constantly trying to protect Trump from his own interests, and much of the work of today’s White House is “a situation of trying to contain him.”

Corker went on to say Trump’s irresponsible outbursts should be concerning to all Americans, and that he’s treating the presidency like it’s a reality television show. He also said Trump’s Twitter outbursts have in several instances harmed diplomatic efforts of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.

While Trump has yet to respond to Corker’s latest comments, the last thing he’d said earlier in the day was that he expects Corker to “be a negative voice and stand in the way of our great agenda.”

Sen. Corker’s comments are an unprecedentedly public rebuke of Trump from his own party, but are seen as reflective of some other Republican leaders who are uncomfortable with Trump’s volatile behavior. It may also be a bigger problem than Trump expects if he’s totally alienated Corker, as the Republican majority in the Senate is small, and losing a top leader’s public loyalty could easily cost him some close votes.

October 11, 2017 Posted by | politics, USA | Leave a comment

Donald Trump says ‘Only one thing will work’ to rein in North Korea

 North Korean leader Kim Jong Un says his nuclear weapons are a “powerful deterrent” which guarantee North Korea’s sovereignty, hours after US President Donald Trump said “only one thing will work” in dealing with the isolated country…..

The president and his chief diplomat have sent differing signals about the US approach to North Korea in recent weeks. Last weekend, Mr. Trump tweeted that Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was “wasting his time” trying to negotiate with North Korea. “Save your energy Rex, we’ll do what has to be done!” Mr. Trump wrote. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/donald-trump-says-only-one-thing-will-work-to-rein-in-north-korea/news-story/8d62aff66eb4a5190f50260d4bd23ae3

October 9, 2017 Posted by | politics international, USA | Leave a comment

Donald Trump and the very disturbing “mad man” strategy

Among serious strategists, “madmen” are not afraid to fail, or blow up the world and themselves. That is not their preferred outcome, but they are prepared to take massive risks for specific purposes.
President Donald Trump seems not to know this history, nor do most of his advisers. He appears, however, drawn to the same strategy as Nixon. Trump has many incentives to try and convince foreign adversaries that he is “mad,” in hopes that they will back down from long-standing defiant behaviors without heavy costs to the United States. He wants big victories with small sacrifices—a good “deal”—and nuclear threats call out as the obvious instrument.
Kim will continue to defy Trump and make the president look like a “dotard”—a wise word choice. A failed bluff is indeed worse than no bluff at all. Trump will not be willing or able to follow through on his nuclear threats, but he will divert attention with new threats in other places, perhaps in Iran. That is his standard mode of behavior. The president will continue to make empty promises, fail to deliver, and then start again. That is his true madness
DONALD TRUMP AND THE ‘MADMAN’ PLAYBOOK ,  WIRED 9 Oct 17,  JEREMI SURI, 
AS THE THREATS exchanged between the leaders of the United States and North Korea escalate, President Donald Trump’s rhetoric seems to draw from the “madman” playbook employed by President Richard Nixon during the Vietnam War. Trump should not expect the results to be any better, and they might be much worse. American leaders should be extremely wary of the risks of flagrant nuclear brinksmanship.

The paradox of American nuclear power is that the nation’s overwhelming arsenal is almost unusable. The damage created by a single nuclear strike would be so great, it would undermine most American strategic purposes. The public revulsion, even from Washington’s closest allies, would make the United States a global outcast. And American nuclear action would justify others contemplating the same, tearing apart 50 years of global non-proliferation efforts.

These are the circumstances that motivated Chinese leader Mao Zedong to call the United States a “paper tiger” during the Cold War. Mao never took American nuclear threats against his country seriously, as he proved when he attacked US soldiers on the Korean Peninsula, in Indochina, and in other settings. Mao believed that nuclear weapons constrained the United States more than its adversaries. President John F. Kennedy agreed, and began a process of broadening American conventional capabilities (“flexible response”) to create non-nuclear options for combatting aggressors, like Mao.

President Richard Nixon inherited the unwinnable conventional war in Vietnam that Kennedy’s flexible capabilities facilitated. Nixon recognized that military options below the nuclear level enabled self-destructive quagmires, as the country sent thousands of soldiers to fight communists in distant, inhospitable lands. The “Nixon Doctrine” promised to reduce the use of American conventional forces. The president looked for a way to rely more heavily on nuclear weapons, converting their overwhelming firepower into diplomatic and military leverage, without actually irradiating foreign territories.

 The destructive power of nuclear weapons remained out of proportion with American political aims, and foreign leaders continued to doubt American will to use them, but Nixon was determined to make his biggest bombs into better bullying tools. As he told Henry Kissinger and other advisers on numerous occasions, he would convince American adversaries that he had strong “guts,” and personal “will in spades” to get tough where predecessors had backed down

Nixon had to show that the limits on how his predecessors thought about nuclear weapons did not apply to him. He was prepared to think about the unthinkable. He would be less predictable and more experimental. He would act a little “mad,” or at least create uncertainty about whether he still followed the accepted rules of behavior for the leader of the free world.

Among serious strategists, “madmen” are not afraid to fail, or blow up the world and themselves. That is not their preferred outcome, but they are prepared to take massive risks for specific purposes. To be mad is not to be irrational. There is a steely rationality in the willingness to combine extreme force with potential suicide. The madman strategist is ready to press the nuclear button if the adversary doesn’t back down. The adversary will give in, according to the logic, because the potential damage is just too devastating, and he thinks the madman might be serious.

During the Cold War, leading American game theorists modeled this behavior. Noble Prize-winning economist Thomas Schelling called it the “threat that leaves something to chance.” Daniel Ellsberg of Pentagon Papers fame spoke of the “political uses of madness.” Henry Kissinger worked closely with Schelling and Ellsberg during his two decades at Harvard University, and he brought this thinking to the White House.

In the first year of the Nixon administration, Kissinger and the president implemented a madman strategy to scare the Soviets into helping the United States extricate itself victoriously from Vietnam. …..

The Nixon-Kissinger madman strategy failed because Soviet and North Vietnamese leaders, like Mao Zedong in China, recognized that the United States had much more to lose than gain from turning the Vietnam War into a nuclear conflict. Nixon could make Indochina unlivable, but he could not save the South Vietnamese government, or America’s reputation as a bulwark of freedom, by feigning madness. All the major actors saw through Nixon’s bluff.

President Donald Trump seems not to know this history, nor do most of his advisers. He appears, however, drawn to the same strategy as Nixon. Trump has many incentives to try and convince foreign adversaries that he is “mad,” in hopes that they will back down from long-standing defiant behaviors without heavy costs to the United States. He wants big victories with small sacrifices—a good “deal”—and nuclear threats call out as the obvious instrument……..

Like Nixon, Trump wants his adversary to fear he might be mad. He hopes that will prompt Kim to back down. As in the past, however, there is no reason to believe that will happen. …….

Kim will continue to defy Trump and make the president look like a “dotard”—a wise word choice. A failed bluff is indeed worse than no bluff at all. Trump will not be willing or able to follow through on his nuclear threats, but he will divert attention with new threats in other places, perhaps in Iran. That is his standard mode of behavior. The president will continue to make empty promises, fail to deliver, and then start again. That is his true madness. https://www.wired.com/story/donald-trump-madman-strategy-north-korea-nuclear-weapons/

October 9, 2017 Posted by | politics international, USA | Leave a comment

The message for nuclear disarmament- from determined Catholic nuns

Anti-war nuns to bring message of nuclear disarmament  https://www.stripes.com/news/us/anti-war-nuns-to-bring-message-of-nuclear-disarmament-1.491495#.WdqS44-CzGg By DEBBIE KELLEY | The Gazette | Associated Press October 7, 2017 COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo. — As political tensions mount over North Korea’s ballistic missile testing, two elderly Roman Catholic nuns who have spent decades sounding the plea for peace say they are more hopeful than ever that nuclear weapons — not the world — will be annihilated.

“We trust, we believe, we know that we are well on the way to a nuclear-free world and future,” said Sister Ardeth Platte, a Dominican nun.

Platte, 81, and Sister Carol Gilbert, 69, live at the Catholic Worker-affiliated Jonah House in Baltimore. They gained attention in Colorado in the past for pouring blood on a nuclear missile silo in Weld County and anti-war civil disobedience at Colorado Springs military bases.

Fifteen years later, they are returning to deliver the message that nuclear disarmament is at hand.

“We’re in an extremely dangerous time,” Platte said. “A strike could be launched from Colorado within 15 minutes and go 7,000 miles to its target within half an hour. It would be total devastation.”

At 3:30 p.m. on Oct. 9, they’ll present to Peterson Air Force Base personnel a copy of the new United Nations’ Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.

They’ll repeat the action at 2:45 p.m. Oct. 10 at Schriever Air Force Base.

“We want the citizens of Colorado to know about this treaty,” Gilbert said. “The treaty would make nuclear weapons illegal.”

“We’re coming as peacemakers and peace advocates, to teach and show our concern,” Platte said. “Our politicians could be heroes of these times, if they start working with nations rather than against nations.”

Leading up to the Colorado Springs events, Platte and Gilbert will conduct a vigil at the N-8 missile silo in Weld County, where in October 2002 they poured blood on a Minuteman III missile loaded with a 20 kiloton nuclear bomb, one of 49 high-trigger nuclear weapons stored in Colorado. Their action symbolized taking it offline.

They were convicted of sabotage and received harsh sentences: 41 months for Platte and 33 for Gilbert.

In September 2000, Platte, Gilbert and three other Catholic nuns were arrested for civil disobedience at Peterson Air Force Base and jailed. The charges were subsequently dropped. They’ve also served time in other states for nonviolent acts of civil disobedience.

Prison provided the opportunity to do their best Christian ministry, Gilbert said. “We feel it is the closest that we can be with the poor of this country because jails and prisons are warehouses for the poor,” she said. “You learn people who have nothing are so generous in sharing, you learn what a waste the prison industrial complex is.”

The work of Platte and Gilbert has been “very significant,” said Bill Sulzman, founder of Colorado Springs-based Citizens for Peace in Space, an activist group that opposes the use of space for war-related activities.

“It’s unique in the sense that it’s primarily a moral argument against nuclear weapons and the phenomenon of modern-day war,” he said. “Not supporting it is one thing, actively opposing it is another.”

As part of a non-governmental organization, the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, the nuns attended a United Nations conference in New York, when on July 7, 122 countries — two-thirds of the 193-member states — adopted the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons Treaty. It’s the first legally binding multilateral agreement for nuclear disarmament in 20 years.

The treaty came after months of negotiations, which the United States, Russia, Great Britain, France, North Korea and other nations did not attend.

To date, 53 countries have signed the treaty, and three ratified the document, which prohibits developing, testing, producing, manufacturing, acquiring, possessing and stockpiling nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices, as well as the use or threat of use of such weapons.

The treaty opened for signatures at U.N. headquarters in New York on Sept. 20; the Vatican was the first to sign and ratify the treaty. The agreement would become law 90 days after at least 50 countries ratify it.

The sisters are optimistic that the treaty is the weapon needed to abolish nuclear capability.

“I’ve been working on this issue for 50 years, and this is the greatest hope I’ve had,” Platte said. “We finally have a tool, a treaty that declares criminality to the possession and threat of using nuclear weapons.”

Even if the United States, Russia and other countries with nuclear warheads never get on board, “it won’t matter because there will be great pressure by other nations,” Platte said. “People are much wiser as we come closer and closer to nuclear holocaust.”

The tactic has worked in the past, she said. At one time there were 70,000 weapons of mass destruction worldwide, now there are 15,000-16,000, due to disarmament.

“This is just the beginning of the implementation — we have gained real momentum,” Platte said.

The atomic bombs the United States dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan, in August 1945 were small compared to today’s weapons of mass destruction, the sisters said.

If a nuclear war were to happen now, “that is the elimination of the planet,” Platte said.

Nuclear weapons are the only weapons of mass destruction not universally prohibited. Biological weapons, chemical weapons, land mines and cluster munitions are banned under international law.

“We believe that the way to solve nations not having nuclear weapons is the total elimination,” Platte said. “It’s time to get rid of them.”

October 9, 2017 Posted by | Religion and ethics, USA, weapons and war | Leave a comment

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