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President Hassan Rouhani has urged U.S. President Joe Biden to return America to the nuclear deal

January 21, 2021 Posted by | Iran, politics international, USA | Leave a comment

Biden works a weakened U.S. hand to negotiate way back into Iran nuclear deal

Biden works a weakened U.S. hand to negotiate way back into Iran nuclear deal, Global News, By Ellen Knickmeyer  The Associated Press,  January 18, 2021 A lot of the characters are the same for President-elect Joe Biden but the scene is far starker as he reassembles a team of veteran negotiators to get back into the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran.

President Donald Trump worked to blow up the multinational deal to contain Iran’s nuclear program during his four years in office, gutting the diplomatic achievement of predecessor Barack Obama in favour of what Trump called a maximum pressure campaign against Iran.

Down to Trump’s last days in office, accusations, threats and still more sanctions by Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and Iran’s decision to spur uranium enrichment and seize a South Korean tanker, are helping to keep alive worries that regional conflict will erupt. Iran on Friday staged drills, hurling volleys of ballistic missiles and smashing drones into targets, further raising pressure on the incoming American president over a nuclear accord.

Even before the Capitol riot this month, upheaval at home threatened to weaken the U.S. hand internationally, including in the Middle East’s nuclear standoff. Political divisions are fierce, thousands are dying in the pandemic and unemployment remains high.

Biden and his team will face allies and adversaries wondering how much attention and resolution the U.S. can bring to bear on the Iran nuclear issue or any other foreign concern, and whether any commitment by Biden will be reversed by his successor.

“His ability to move the needle is … I think hampered by the doubt about America’s capacity and by the skepticism and worry about what comes after Biden,” said Vali Nasr, a professor at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. Nasr was an adviser on Afghanistan during the first Obama administration.

Biden’s pick for deputy secretary of state, Wendy Sherman, acknowledged the difficulties in an interview with a Boston news show last month before her nomination.

“We’re going to work hard at this, because we have lost credibility, we are seen as weaker” after Trump, said Sherman, who was Barack Obama’s lead U.S. negotiator for the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement. She was speaking of U.S. foreign objectives overall, including the Iran deal.

Biden’s first priority for renewed talks is getting both Iran and the United States back in compliance with the nuclear deal, which offered Iran relief from sanctions in exchange for Iran accepting limits on its nuclear material and gear…………….https://globalnews.ca/news/7583615/biden-us-iran-nuclear-deal/

January 19, 2021 Posted by | Iran, politics international, USA | Leave a comment

France says Iran is building nuclear weapons capacity, urgent to revive 2015 deal

January 18, 2021 Posted by | France, Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

A clean return to the Iran nuclear deal should be Biden’s first option

A clean return to the Iran nuclear deal should be Biden’s first option Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist By Eric Brewer | January 11, 2021  Of all the international agreements President-elect Joe Biden has pledged to rejoin upon taking office, perhaps none is more controversial than the Iran nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Although the deal was containing Iran’s program until Trump withdrew in mid-2018—a move that led Iran to ramp up its nuclear activities—some are now arguing that returning to the deal isn’t a good idea or is too difficult given developments over the last four years.

This is unfortunate. Returning to the deal is not only viable but also presents the best chance of preventing an Iranian bomb. It is the best path toward building on the agreement and addressing some of the shortfalls that critics deride. Moreover, with a bit of planning, the Biden team could address several key concerns about the US return.

Arguments against rejoining the deal: Sorting the good from the bad. Some of the arguments and policy prescriptions offered by skeptics of returning to the deal are not realistic and should be dismissed. For example, some favor increasing pressure on Iran until that country’s leaders make more concessions on nuclear and non-nuclear activities. But no amount of pressure alone will cause Iran to abandon its ballistic missile program entirely or cease its support to terrorist groups, militias, and other malign non-state actors. Those policies are central to Iran’s concepts of national security and defense and ending them would require dramatic changes to the region and Iran’s threat perceptions, at a minimum.

The past four years has demonstrated that extreme pressure and unrealistic demands only cause Iran to increase its nuclear program and regional aggression. 

But other critiques of returning to the deal have some merit and deserve consideration. A well-planned attempt at a “clean return”—in which the United States and Iran follow a series of agreed steps that bring them back into compliance to the deal’s original terms—would address many of them.

These objections can be broken down into three categories—strategy, process, and politics. 

Objections to strategy. Some argue that it makes little sense to rejoin the deal because restrictions on Iran have already expired or would expire in the next few years, and that giving Iran significant sanctions relief would yield important leverage that could help secure a follow-on deal.

In fact, rejoining the agreement would put the United States in a stronger position to address both of these concerns. By returning, Washington would immediately cease to be the problematic actor—global attention would shift back toward Iran. This would make it easier for the United States to work with the international community to limit the fallout from the expired conventional arms embargo and to plan for the lifting of restrictions on Iran’s missile program, slated to occur in October 2023. A Biden team would then have the remainder of its first term to make progress toward a new deal (or deals) that addresses Iran’s nuclear and non-nuclear activities—long before the most important sunsets kick in. (The limits on enrichment levels and Iran’s stockpile of uranium, which are key to maintaining longer breakout timelines, don’t expire until 2031 and many of the monitoring provisions last even longer).

The United States still has ample incentives it can offer Iran in negotiations for a follow-on deal. These range from further assistance for Iran’s civil nuclear program, to relaxing the US trade embargo, to taking steps to help Iran actually reap the economic benefits of sanctions relief. (Recall that Iranian officials were quite dissatisfied that the removal of sanctions under the deal did not translate into the economic gains they expected or advertised.) And if and when talks expand to include missile and other regional issues, this will likely involve other players in the region that can put additional incentives on the table .

Concerns about process. Another set of concerns focuses on the process of returning to the agreement. Skeptics claim there simply just isn’t enough time. Biden will be inaugurated January 20, and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani will be out of office less than six months later, likely replaced by a more hardline successor. Potentially further complicating a swift return by both sides, Iran has hinted that it may insist on  US compensation for its withdrawal from the deal; and it will expect Washington to remove sanctions first before dialing back its program.

 True, the United States and Iran would have to act quickly to agree on the process by which both come back into compliance, but there are reasons to believe it might work. Both sides want to get it done. Iranian officials have been fairly consistent that they would be willing to return to compliance if the United States does the same………… https://thebulletin.org/2021/01/a-clean-return-to-the-iran-nuclear-deal-should-be-bidens-first-option/?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=MondayNewsletter01112021&utm_content=NuclearRisk_IranReturn_01112021 

 

January 16, 2021 Posted by | Iran, politics international, USA | Leave a comment

Iran tests missiles under apparent watch of US nuclear sub

Iran tests missiles under apparent watch of US nuclear sub
State media says Iran has fired cruise missiles as part of a naval drill in the Gulf of Oman, abc news,  ByThe Associated Press 15 January 2021   DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Iran fired cruise missiles Thursday as part of a naval drill in the Gulf of Oman, state media reported, under surveillance of what appeared to be a U.S. nuclear submarine dispatched to the region amid heightened tensions between the countries.

Helicopter footage of the exercise released by Iran’s navy showed what resembled an Ohio-class guided-missile submarine, the USS Georgia, which the U.S. Navy last month said had been sent to the Persian Gulf — a rare announcement aimed at underscoring American military might in the region.

Iran’s navy did not identify the submarine, but warned the boat to steer clear of the area, where missiles were being launched from land units and ships in the gulf and the northern part of the Indian Ocean. When asked for comment on the reported submarine sighting, Cmdr. Rebecca Rebarich, a spokeswoman for the U.S. Navy’s Bahrain-based 5th Fleet, responded: “We don’t talk about submarine operations.”

Later Thursday, Iran‘s state-run media claimed that a “foreign” vessel had “intended to approach the naval drill” and departed soon after the Iranian Navy’s warning, without elaborating……..https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/iran-tests-missiles-apparent-watch-us-nuclear-75251087

January 16, 2021 Posted by | Iran, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Iran will expel U.N. nuclear inspectors unless sanctions are lifted

Iran will expel U.N. nuclear inspectors unless sanctions are lifted: lawmaker

By Reuters Staff DUBAI (Reuters) 10 Jan 21, – Iran will expel United Nations nuclear watchdog inspectors unless U.S. sanctions are lifted by a Feb. 21 deadline set by the hardline-dominated parliament, a lawmaker said on Saturday.

Parliament passed a law in November that obliges the government to halt inspections of its nuclear sites by the International Atomic Energy Agency and step up uranium enrichment beyond the limit set under Tehran’s 2015 nuclear deal if sanctions are not eased.

Iran’s Guardian Council watchdog body approved the law on Dec. 2 and the government has said it will implement it….

 

January 10, 2021 Posted by | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

The risk of USA – Iran military showdown before Trump leaves office

Are the US and Iran headed for a military showdown before Trump leaves office?  The Conversation Clive Williams
Campus visitor, ANU Centre for Military and Security Law, Australian National University,  January 4, 2021   Tensions are running high in the Middle East in the waning days of the Trump administration.

Over the weekend, Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, claimed Israeli agents were planning to attack US forces in Iraq to provide US President Donald Trump with a pretext for striking Iran.

Just ahead of the one-year anniversary of the US assassination of Iran’s charismatic General Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards also warned his country would respond forcefully to any provocations.

Today, we have no problem, concern or apprehension toward encountering any powers. We will give our final words to our enemies on the battlefield.

Israeli military leaders are likewise preparing for potential Iranian retaliation over the November assassination of senior Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh — an act Tehran blames on the Jewish state.

Both the US and Israel have reportedly deployed submarines to the Persian Gulf in recent days, while the US has flown nuclear-capable B-52 bombers to the region in a show of force.

And in another worrying sign, the acting US defence secretary, Christopher Miller, announced over the weekend the US would not withdraw the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz and its strike group from the Middle East — a swift reversal from the Pentagon’s earlier decision to send the ship home.

Israel’s priorities under a new US administration

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would like nothing more than action by Iran that would draw in US forces before Trump leaves office this month and President-elect Joe Biden takes over. It would not only give him the opportunity to become a tough wartime leader, but also help to distract the media from his corruption charges.

Any American military response against Iran would also make it much more difficult for Biden to establish a working relationship with Iran and potentially resurrect the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.

It’s likely in any case the Biden administration will have less interest in getting much involved in the Middle East — this is not high on the list of priorities for the incoming administration. However, a restoration of the Iranian nuclear agreement in return for the lifting of US sanctions would be welcomed by Washington’s European allies.

This suggests Israel could be left to run its own agenda in the Middle East during the Biden administration.

Israel sees Iran as its major ongoing security threat because of its support for Hezbollah in Lebanon and Palestinian militants in Gaza.

One of Israel’s key strategic policies is also to prevent Iran from ever becoming a nuclear weapon state. Israel is the only nuclear weapon power in the Middle East and is determined to keep it that way.

While Iran claims its nuclear program is only intended for peaceful purposes, Tehran probably believes realistically (like North Korea) that its national security can only be safeguarded by possession of a nuclear weapon.

In recent days, Tehran announced it would begin enriching uranium to 20% as quickly as possible, exceeding the limits agreed to in the 2015 nuclear deal.

This is a significant step and could prompt an Israeli strike on Iran’s underground Fordo nuclear facility. Jerusalem contemplated doing so nearly a decade ago when Iran previously began enriching uranium to 20%.

How the Iran nuclear deal fell apart……….. https://theconversation.com/are-the-us-and-iran-headed-for-a-military-showdown-before-trump-leaves-office-152606

 

January 7, 2021 Posted by | Iran, politics international, USA, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Restoring Iran nuclear deal is good for Israel

Restoring Iran nuclear deal is good for Israel – opinion,  Economic pressure is of no value if it is not accompanied by a diplomatic route that will allow Iranian leaders to justify a policy change. Jerusalem Post By NADAV TAMIR   JANUARY 6, 2021 

The Biden administration, to be sworn in on January 20, will have to deal with many urgent issues at home and abroad and to repair the rubble left behind by the Trump administration. For Israel, despite the existential importance of reaching a two-state solution with the Palestinians and preventing a binational catastrophe, there is no more urgent priority at the moment than a return to the 2015 nuclear agreement known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between the world powers (P5 +1) and Iran. This will immediately stop the prospect of Iranian nuclear breakout, which has become a very real possibility since the Trump administration’s abandonment of the agreement……..
Contrary to what the detractors say, the Biden administration has no intention of allowing Iran to reach military nuclear capabilities. The Biden approach is that in order to prevent Iran from achieving military nuclear capabilities, diplomacy is needed alongside economic pressure. To this end, it is necessary to renew the international coalition vis-à-vis Iran and its expansion, and it is necessary to strengthen the pragmatic side in Iranian regime that favor the good of the Iranian economy over efforts to achieve Shiite hegemony in the Middle East.  ……
The Israeli government needs to learn from the mistakes of its policies vis-à-vis the Obama administration. We must be a player that contributes to the international effort to stop Iran and refrain from pursuing a unilateral and confrontational policy toward the US and other powers. The Israeli confrontation with the Obama administration meant we were not part of the process of building the agreement, turning Israel into a divisive issue in American politics and tearing up the Jewish community, which largely supported Obama’s approach.

In order to stop Iran and to restore Israeli relations with the US and with the American Jewish community, the Israeli government must cooperate with the Biden government in its efforts to return to diplomacy with Iran from its first day in office, on January 20, not a moment too soon.

The writer is a former diplomat and foreign policy adviser to president Shimon Peres, a current senior adviser for international affairs at the Peres Center for Peace and Innovation, and a member of the board of the Mitvim regional foreign policy think tank and the steering committee of the Geneva Initiative. He served at the Israeli Embassy in Washington and as consul general to New England. https://www.jpost.com/opinion/restoring-iran-nuclear-deal-is-good-for-israel-opinion-654501

January 7, 2021 Posted by | Iran, Israel, politics international | Leave a comment

Biden Wants US Back in Iran Nuclear Deal (Video) 

Biden Wants US Back in Iran Nuclear Deal (Video)   https://www.voanews.com/episode/biden-wants-us-back-iran-nuclear-deal-4531861
January 03, 2021,   President-elect Joe Biden says he wants the United States to return to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal — if Tehran also resumes compliance. VOA’s Diplomatic Correspondent Cindy Saine reports from Washington that experts say they expect a shift away from the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign of crippling economic sanctions on Iran, but a U.S. return to the nuclear deal will not be easy.

January 4, 2021 Posted by | Iran, politics international, USA | Leave a comment

USA show of force -flying nuclear bombers over Iran

US flying nuclear bombers over Iran to deter NYE attack, 9 news, By CNN Dec 31, 2020  The US have flown nuclear-capable B-52 bombers to the Middle East in the latest show of force meant to deter Iran, as defense officials remain divided over the risk posed by the regime and the Iraq-based militias it supports.

Pentagon officials say the military muscle-flexing is meant to warn Tehran off attacking American interests or personnel in the days surrounding the January 3 anniversary of the Trump administration’s assassination of the powerful Iranian leader General Qasem Soleimani.
At the same time, acting Secretary of Defence Christopher Miller decided yesterday against a push to extend the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz’s deployment to the Persian Gulf, sending it out of the region in an explicit de-escalation signal to Iran, according to a senior defense official.
The conflicting messages could reflect divisions within the Pentagon, where a second senior defence official tells CNN that the current threat level from Iran is the most concerning they have seen since Soleimani’s death.

Officials cite new intelligence that Iran and allied militias in Iraq may be plotting attacks against US forces in the Middle East.
For example, Iran has been moving short range ballistic missiles into Iraq, prompting the US to deploy additional military assets to the region.
Yet others in the Pentagon contend that the threat is being exaggerated, with the first senior defence official – who is directly involved in discussions – telling CNN that there is “not a single piece of corroborating intel” suggesting an attack by Iran may be imminent.
US President Donald Trump has fuelled some of the uncertainty, reportedly asking in a mid-November meeting for military options he could use against Iran.
He then threatened Iran after a December 21 attack on the US embassy in Baghdad that senior US officials, including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, attributed to Iraqi militias affiliated with Tehran.
“Our embassy in Baghdad got hit Sunday by several rockets,” Mr Trump tweeted from aboard Air Force One after a December 23 White House meeting on Iranian threats.
“Three rockets failed to launch. Guess where they were from: IRAN.”
Mr Trump then offered “some friendly health advice to Iran: If one American is killed, I will hold Iran responsible. Think it over.”

……… The B-52 flight was the second time this month the Pentagon has sent the nuclear-capable bombers to the region. It follows the Navy’s rare December 21 announcement that it had sent a nuclear-powered submarine through the Persian Gulf, accompanied by guided-missile cruisers.  ,,,,,,,https://www.9news.com.au/world/donald-trump-us-flying-nuclear-bombers-over-iran-to-deter-nye-attack/f02018ea-2b8f-4d07-9941-e1df3a0a0f4c

January 2, 2021 Posted by | Iran, USA, weapons and war | 1 Comment

Iran nuclear deal: ‘Heated rhetoric and the heightened risk of miscalculation’ widen differences

Iran nuclear deal: ‘Heated rhetoric and the heightened risk of miscalculation’ widen differences,  UN News  23 Dec 20, Although the landmark Iran nuclear deal could improve regional stability if fully implemented, increased tensions have highlighted the risks posed by escalation, the UN’s Political and Peacebuilding Affairs chief told the Security Council on Tuesday.

Under-Secretary-General Rosemary DiCarlo was speaking during a virtual meeting on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the July 2015 accord that set out rules for monitoring Iran’s nuclear programme and a pathway to easing sanctions.

The JCPOA was signed by Iran alongside the European Union and five permanent members of the Security Council: China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. However, Washington withdrew in May 2018.

Ms. DiCarlo noted that recent years have been characterized by “attacks on critical infrastructure, heated rhetoric and heightened risk of miscalculation.

“Such actions deepen the differences related to the Plan and render efforts to address other regional conflicts more difficult”, she said. “We call on all concerned to avoid any actions that may result in further escalation of tensions.”

Withdrawal and reduced commitments

Last August, the US announced it would reinstate sanctions lifted following the deal.

Ms. DiCarlo described the move as contrary to the goals of the JCPOA and Security Council Resolution 2231 on its implementation.

“We regret the steps taken by the United States when it withdrew from the Plan, as well as the steps taken by Iran to reduce some of its nuclear-related commitments under the Plan”, she told ambassadors.

The JCPOA guarantees that the UN-backed international nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), will have regular access to sites in Iran and information about its nuclear programme.

While the country had complied with some provisions, the IAEA reported it had surpassed stipulated limits for enriched uranium, a critical component in nuclear power generation.

“Iran has stated its intention to remain in the Plan, and that the steps that they have taken are reversible. It is essential that Iran refrains from further steps to reduce its commitments and returns to full implementation of the Plan”, she said. …………..

Iran nuclear deal: a summary

  • What is the Iran nuclear deal? The 2015 “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action” (JCPOA), sets out rules for monitoring Iran’s nuclear programme, and paves the way for the lifting of UN sanctions.
  • Which countries are involved? Iran, the five members of the Security Council (China, France, Russia, UK, US), plus Germany, together with the European Union.
  • What is the UN’s involvement? A UN Security Council resolution to ensure the enforcement of the JCPOA, and guarantee that the UN’s atomic energy agency, the IAEA, continues to have regular access to and more information on Iran’s nuclear programme, was adopted in 2015.
  • Why is the deal at risk? The current US Administration pulled out of the deal in 2018 and re-imposed sanctions. In July 2019, Iran reportedly breached its uranium stockpile limit, and announced its intention to continue enriching uranium, posing a more serious proliferation risk.   https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/12/1080592

December 24, 2020 Posted by | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

US Navy nuclear-powered guided-missile submarine and 2 warships sail through Strait of Hormuz, (Persian Gulf-Gulf of Oman)

December 22, 2020 Posted by | Iran, USA, weapons and war | Leave a comment

World powers renew commitment to preserve Iran nuclear deal

World powers renew commitment to preserve Iran nuclear deal
Remaining parties to landmark 2015 deal reaffirm commitment as Iran’s nuclear programme’s chief slams a Parliament bill.   Aljazeera, Maziar Motamedi, 21 Dec 2020, Tehran, Iran – The remaining parties to a landmark nuclear deal they signed with Iran in 2015 have renewed their commitment to preserving the accord in an online meeting.

The foreign ministers of Iran, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, China and Russia participated in a two-hour meeting chaired by the European Union’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, on Monday.

In a tweet before the meeting, Borrell said the aim is to “re-emphasise our commitment to preserve” the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as the nuclear deal is formally known.

A joint statement following the meeting said the ministers “discussed that full and effective implementation of the JCPOA by all remains crucial and discussed the need to address ongoing implementation challenges, including on nuclear non-proliferation and sanctions lifting commitments”.

The foreign ministers recognised the deal, enshrined in Resolution 2231 of the United Nations Security Council, as a “key element” in the global non-proliferation regime and a diplomatic achievement contributing to regional and international peace……..

US President-elect Joe Biden has promised to bring his country back into the deal and lift sanctions but has hinted that more negotiations are needed on Iran’s missiles programme and regional influence.

The European signatories of the nuclear deal have also made similar remarks, but Iran has categorically rejected any further negotiations, saying the nuclear deal must be implemented as negotiated and signed in 2015…………….. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/21/world-powers-renew-commitment-to-preserve-iran-nuclear-deal

December 22, 2020 Posted by | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

Iran builds at underground nuclear plant

December 20, 2020 Posted by | Iran, politics | Leave a comment

West yet to condemn Iranian nuclear scientist’s assassination

December 20, 2020 Posted by | Iran, politics international, USA | Leave a comment

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