nuclear-news

Iran nuclear talks to resume ‘soon’ after modest gains in Vienna

Iran nuclear talks to resume ‘soon’ after modest gains in Vienna

Negotiators trying to agree on a joint text that would act as the basis for a potential agreement. Aljazeera  By Maziar Motamedi 17 Dec 202117 Dec 2021

The seventh round of talks in Vienna to restore Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal has ended and while it appears progress was made, the negotiating world powers are not close to an agreement.

A Joint Commission meeting of the remaining signatories of the deal the United States abandoned in 2018 was held in Palais Coburg on Friday…………………….. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/17/iran-nuclear-talks-to-resume-soon-after-modest-gains-in-vienna

December 18, 2021 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

Because Trump left the nuclear deal, we might have to learn to live with a nuclear Iran 

Because Trump left the nuclear deal, we might have to learn to live with a nuclear Iran  https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/12/13/because-trump-left-nuclear-deal-we-might-have-learn-live-with-nuclear-iran/  By Max Boot

President Donald Trump’s 2018 decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal might have been the most disastrous foreign policy miscalculation since the invasion of Iraq in 2003. (The only competitor for that dubious honor is the one-sided agreement that Trump concluded with the Taliban and that President Biden implemented.)

Under the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran got rid of 97 percent of its nuclear fuel and limited its uranium enrichment to just 3.67 percent purity. Its “breakout” time to produce enough material to make a nuclear bomb was estimated to be more than a year.

Trump’s withdrawal allowed Iran to rev up its nuclear program. The International Atomic Energy Agency reported last year that Iran had 12 times the amount of enriched uranium allowed under the deal. It is also enriching uranium to 60 percent purity, just short of the 90 percent needed to make nuclear weapons. Its breakout time has shrunk to as little as three weeks. It will take longer to manufacture the warheads needed to create nuclear weapons, but Iran is far closer to that dreaded milestone than it was in 2018.

Even former Israeli security officials, most of whom opposed President Barack Obama’s nuclear deal, now admit that pulling out of it has backfired. Benjamin Netanyahu’s former defense minister, Moshe Yaalon, said last month: “Looking at the policy on Iran in the last decade, the main mistake was the withdrawal of the U.S. administration from the agreement.” Former Mossad director Tamir Pardo described the pullout as a “tragedy.” Retired general Isaac Ben Israel, chairman of the Israeli Space Agency, called “Netanyahu’s efforts to persuade the Trump administration to quit the nuclear agreement … the worst strategic mistake in Israel’s history.”

Now they tell us.

The Biden administration has been trying to revive the nuclear deal. Talks are going on in Vienna. But Iran feels burned by Trump’s pullout, and its new hard-line president, Ebrahim Raisi, hasn’t shown much interest in compromise. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said this month that “Iran right now does not seem to be serious about doing what’s necessary to return to compliance.”

That means the United States and Israel might be drawing closer to the decision they have long dreaded: Do they bomb Iran or allow Iran to get The Bomb? In the past, I would have said that bombing was the least-bad option, but I no longer believe that.

A nation of 85 million people, Iran is much larger and much stronger than the adversaries that America couldn’t defeat in Iraq and Afghanistan. And its nuclear program is far more advanced than those of Iraq or Syria when Israel bombed suspected nuclear facilities in those countries in 1981 and 2007, respectively.

The Iranian nuclear program is dispersed across dozens of hardened, hidden sites, all protected by a sophisticated air-defense system. The Fordow fuel enrichment plant is buried deep inside a mountain. Taking down Fordow, if it can be done at all, would probably require the 30,000-pound Massive Ordnance Penetrator. Israel does not have this bomb or the bomber — either a B-2 or B-52— needed to drop it.

The United States could, of course, provide Israel with these munitions, or it could bomb Iranian installations itself. But even successful strikes would only delay Iran’s nuclear program: You can eliminate nuclear facilities but not nuclear know-how.

Moreover, there is a real risk that any attack could trigger a larger Middle Eastern war. Iran would likely retaliate against U.S. forces in the region and against U.S. allies. Lebanese Hezbollah, for example, could rain down more than 100,000 missiles and rockets on Israel, enough to overwhelm its missile defenses. (In the 2006 Lebanon war, Hezbollah fired only 4,000 short-range rockets at Israel.) There’s a good reason no Israeli or American leader — not even hawks such as Netanyahu, George W. Bush and Trump — has been willing to bomb Iran. As I wrote in 2019, war with Iran could be “the mother of all quagmires.”

Letting Iran go nuclear, if that proves unavoidable, might actually be the less dangerous option. The Iranian regime has employed suicide bombers in the past, but it isn’t suicidal itself. Its leaders know that Israel has a large nuclear arsenal — including nuclear missiles reportedly deployed on submarines that could survive any attack on Israel. The United States could further deter Iran by explicitly extending its nuclear umbrella not only to Israel but also to Saudi Arabia, Turkey and other neighboring states. Nuclear weapons would allow Iran to avert a U.S. invasion that isn’t going to happen anyway but would do nothing to protect the regime against the biggest danger it faces: an uprising from its own people.

The Biden administration should keep trying to peacefully stop the Iranian nuclear program, but that might no longer be possible because of Trump’s catastrophic decision to leave the accord. And if those efforts fail? Well, we have lived with nukes in the hands of other vile and abhorrent regimes, such as the Soviet Union/Russia, North Korea and China. If we have to, we could learn to live with a nuclear Iran, too.

December 14, 2021 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

Iran slams Europeans over nuclear deal stance

Iran slams Europeans over nuclear deal stance – Press TV  https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-slams-europeans-over-nuclear-deal-stance-press-tv-2021-12-12/Reuters  DUBAI, Dec 12 (Reuters) – European countries have failed to offer any constructive proposal or initiative amid efforts to revive a 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, Tehran’s top nuclear negotiator told Press TV on Sunday.

“European parties fail to come up with any initiatives to resolve differences over the removal of sanctions (on Iran),” Ali Bagheri said, referring to Britain, France and Germany, which are among the big powers trying to salvage the deal.

December 13, 2021 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

Iran nuclear talks pulled back from the brink as Tehran shifts stance

Iran nuclear talks pulled back from brink as Tehran shifts stance, Cautious optimism as Tehran revises its position after pressure from Russia and China   Guardian,  Patrick Wintour Diplomatic editor, Fri 10 Dec 2021 Efforts to revive the Iran nuclear deal have been hauled back from the brink of collapse as Tehran revised its stance after pressure from Russia and China and clear warnings that the EU and the US were preparing to walk away.

The cautiously optimistic assessment came at the start of the seventh round of talks on the future of the nuclear deal in Vienna. It follows what was seen as a disastrous set of talks last week in which the US and the EU claimed Iran had walked back on compromises reached in previous rounds.

The Russian ambassador to the talks, Mikhail Ulyanov, said: “We managed to eliminate a number of misunderstandings that created some tension. Everyone confirmed their commitment to productive work [to restore the nuclear agreement].”

Nevertheless, Joe Biden warned that the United States was preparing “additional measures” against Iran, amid lingering fears that the talks could still fail…………..  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/iran-nuclear-deal-pulled-back-from-brink-of-collapse-as-talks-resume-in-vienna

December 11, 2021 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

Guarded optimism among Western diplomats, as Iran nuclear talks progress in Vienna.

Progress in Iran nuclear talks as Tehran agrees to discuss compliance

Western diplomats express guarded optimism after first day of negotiations in Vienna, Guardian,   Patrick Wintour Diplomatic editorTue 30 Nov 21,  Western diplomats have expressed guarded optimism and relief after the first day of resumed Iran nuclear talks in Vienna made unexpected progress when Tehran formally agreed to discuss steps to come back into compliance with the 2015 agreement.

The EU’s chief negotiator, Enrique Mora, said Iran had agreed that the talks could resume largely where they had ended in June, rather than with an entirely new agenda.

There had been fears that Iran’s new harder-line administration, elected in June, would rip up the progress made in the first round of talks and insist the sole legitimate issue for discussion was the list of economic sanctions that the US must lift.

Mora said: “There was a sense of urgency to bring an end to the sanctions and the suffering of the Iranian people … “The Iranian delegation recognises the work we have done in the past six rounds and the fact that we will build on this work going ahead.”

The Russian ambassador to the talks, Mikhail Ulyanov, also described the opening of the talks as successful.

Ali Bagheri, the new Iranian chief negotiator, said he was optimistic, but that he was looking for a US guarantee that it would not only lift a swath of economic sanctions but also promise not to reimpose them in the future.

The talks are due to last at least two further days, with Tuesday dedicated to negotiating the sanctions that will be lifted on the basis that they are linked to the nuclear agreement, and were not imposed due to continuing Iranian human rights abuses or terrorist activity. There are still differences between the two sides on how to classify sanctions.

Iran has also agreed that on Wednesday it will discuss the steps it would need to take to come back into compliance with the agreement. Iran regarded the sequencing of the discussion as significant.

After Donald Trump took the US out of the deal in 2018, Iran responded by taking a series of reversible but escalating steps that breached the agreement’s terms, including stockpiling enriched uranium and stepping up use of advanced centrifuges at sites to which UN nuclear inspectors say they do not have full access.

The talks are between Iran, Russia, China, Germany, France and the UK. The US is excluded from direct negotiations by Iran, but its delegation in Vienna is being consulted on each Iranian offer.

Although there is a mood of optimism, at least in contrast to the gloom leading up to the talks, many hurdles remain to an agreement and there is still a suspicion in some western capitals that Iran is playing for time as it develops its nuclear technology…………….

Israel is isolated in the Middle East to the extent that the Gulf states now follow the US lead in accepting that a revival of the nuclear deal would be good for stability in the region. But that isolation may prove temporary if the talks do not manage to make any progress.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/29/iran-hopes-to-covertly-advance-its-nuclear-programme-says-israel

November 30, 2021 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

UN nuclear watchdog fails to reach access deal with Iran.

UN nuclear watchdog fails to reach access deal with Iran

IAEA head says failure to gain renewed access to sites casts doubt over chances of restoring 2015 deal, Guardian,  Patrick Wintour Diplomatic editor  24 Nov 21,  The head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog has said he has failed to reach a deal with Iran over renewed access to key nuclear sites after talks in Tehran.

Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said the failure was seriously affecting the agency’s ability to do its work and the chances of a restoration of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.

He told a press conference he was “close to the point when I will not be able to guarantee continuity of knowledge”, adding: “We must reach an agreement. We must do it.” No date has been set for a further meeting, although Grossi said he would continue to contact Iran.

The failure may endanger the wider talks due to start next Monday in Vienna about restoring the deal that inspectors are supposed to police…………………..

The failure to reach agreement came when Grossi visited Tehran on Monday and Tuesday to discuss access to the sites with Mohammad Eslami, the head of Iran’s atomic energy organisation, and the Iranian foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. It was the first time Grossi had met the minister since a new hardline government was elected in June.

Iran feels the west and the IAEA have not been willing to condemn what it alleges are repeated covert Israeli attacks on its nuclear installations, or the assassination of its top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, in November 2020.

Grossi acknowledged there was pressure on the IAEA not to declare the entire inspection regime defunct since it would provide a difficult backdrop for the broader talks in Vienna, starting on 29 November. The talks, in abeyance since June, could conclude with the US rejoining the nuclear deal, the lifting of most economic sanctions on Iran and an end to Iran’s non-compliance with its non-proliferation obligations under the deal.

In a report last week, the IAEA said Iran’s high-concentration uranium levels had reached new records, and well beyond the stockpile limits set in the nuclear deal. The IAEA said Iran possessed 17.7kg of enriched uranium at a concentration of 60%, compared with 10kg in September.  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/24/un-nuclear-watchdog-fails-reach-access-deal-iran

November 25, 2021 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

Austria Backs Result-Oriented Nuclear Talk, re Iran

Austria Backs Result-Oriented Nuclear Talks, Financial Tribune , 7 Nov 21,

ustrian Foreign Minister Michael Linhart said that as an active host to negotiations on the revival of the 2015 nuclear deal, Vienna would do its utmost to support a successful outcome of the talks.

“We strongly hope that all sides return to full and effective implementation of the agreement,” he told IRNA ahead of the resumption of the talks that have been at pause for nearly five months.

The Vienna negotiations started in April to work out how the United States and Iran can return to full compliance with the nuclear deal, formally called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action……………….

Iran’s position is that all US sanctions must be removed before it reverses its countermeasures.

US State Department spokesperson Ned Price said Washington believes it remains possible to reach and implement an understanding in relatively short order if the Iranians are serious, but this window of opportunity will not be open forever.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raeisi stressed that the negotiations that Tehran is considering are result-oriented ones.

“We will not leave the negotiating table … but we will not retreat from the interests of our nation in any way,” he said.

Iran also demands a guarantee that the US would not abandon the deal once again, saying the talks would fail otherwise.  https://financialtribune.com/articles/national/111022/austria-backs-result-oriented-nuclear-talks

November 8, 2021 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

Iran: Nuclear talks with world powers to resume on November 29

Iran: Nuclear talks with world powers to resume on November 29

Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator says the resumption of negotiations is aimed at removing US-imposed sanctions. Iran has said it will resume multilateral talks on November 29 in Austria’s capital, Vienna, aimed at reviving the country’s nuclear deal with world powers.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani, who became Tehran’s chief negotiator in mid-September, said on Wednesday the date was set in a phone call with European Union mediator Enrique Mora……

The European Union also confirmed the news about the resumption of talks and said the negotiations would be chaired by Mora on behalf of EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell.

“Participants will continue the discussions on the prospect of a possible return of the United States to the JCPOA and how to ensure the full and effective implementation of the agreement by all sides,” said the EU’s European External Action Service in a statement, which added that the remaining JCPOA signatories would be represented.

……..The European Union also confirmed the news about the resumption of talks and said the negotiations would be chaired by Mora on behalf of EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell…………https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/3/iran-nuclear-talks-with-world-powers-to-resume-on-november-29

November 4, 2021 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

USA in talks with allies on getting Iran to agree to nuclear deal- Blinken

U.S. in talks with allies on getting Iran to agree to nuclear deal -Blinken, By Kanishka Singh and Jonathan Landay  Oct 31 (Reuters) – U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Sunday that the United States was “absolutely in lock step” with Britain, Germany and France on getting Iran back into a nuclear deal, but added it was unclear if Tehran was willing to rejoin the talks in a “meaningful way.”

Blinken’s remarks in an interview with CNN on Sunday come a day after the United States, Germany, France and Britain urged Iran to resume compliance with a 2015 nuclear deal in order to “avoid a dangerous escalation.”……….

ran’s foreign minister said separately on Sunday that if the United States was serious about rejoining Tehran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, President Joe Biden could just issue an “executive order,” the state-owned Iran newspaper reported.

“It is enough for Biden to issue an executive order tomorrow and they (U.S.) announce they are rejoining the pact from the point where his predecessor left the deal,” Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said…….

Talks between Iran and world powers aimed at salvaging the deal, which started in April, are slated to resume at the end of November, the Islamic Republic’s top nuclear negotiator said on Wednesday.Reporting by Kanishka Singh in Bengaluru and Jonanthan Landay in Washington; Editing by Matthew Lewis and Bill Berkrot   https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/blinken-says-us-talks-with-allies-getting-iran-agree-nuclear-deal-2021-10-31/

November 1, 2021 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

U.S. imposes new sanctions on Iran, sanctions that are unrelated to nuclear activities

U.S. hits Iran with sanctions ahead of key nuclear talks,  PBS NewsHour 29 Oct 21, WASHINGTON (AP) — The United States on Friday hit Iran with a fresh set of sanctions as President Joe Biden prepares for a key weekend meeting with European leaders to discuss the possible resumption of nuclear talks with the Islamic Republic.

The Treasury Department announced the new penalties against two senior members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps and two affiliated companies for supplying lethal drones and related material to insurgent groups in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen and to Ethiopia, which has been fighting rival Tigray forces for almost a year.

Although the sanctions are unrelated to Iran’s atomic program, the Biden administration has said it wants to build on a potential agreement to revive the languishing 2015 nuclear deal to include Iranian support for such groups and curtail its ballistic missile development………… https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/u-s-hits-iran-with-sanctions-ahead-of-key-nuclear-talks

October 30, 2021 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

Iran says nuclear talks with six powers to resume by end November

Iran says nuclear talks with six powers to resume by end November, By Parisa Hafezi,   DUBAI, Oct 27 (Reuters) – Iran’s talks with six world powers aimed at reviving a 2015 nuclear deal will resume by the end of November, its top nuclear negotiator said on Wednesday, as Western concerns over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear advances grow.

“Had a very serious & constructive dialogue with @enriquemora_ on the essential elements for successful negotiations. We agree to start negotiations before the end of November,” Ali Bagheri Kani wrote on Twitter after meeting EU officials in Brussels……….

the talks have been on hold since the election of Iran’s hardline President Ebrahim Raisi in June, who is expected to take a tough approach if the talks resume in Vienna.

Raisi, like Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, wants results-oriented talks aimed at bringing Tehran and Washington back into full compliance with the pact……….

Iran has been unable to access tens of billions of dollars of its assets in foreign banks, mainly from exports of oil and gas, due to U.S. sanctions on its banking and energy sectors.Reporting by Dubai Newsroom, Parisa Hafezi; Editing by Alison Williams, Timothy Heritage and Hugh Lawson  https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-ready-direct-talks-with-european-parties-2015-nuclear-deal-press-tv-2021-10-27/

October 29, 2021 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

Preventing an accidental nuclear crisis in Iran and beyond

Preventing an accidental nuclear crisis in Iran and beyond, Bulletin, By Samuel M. Hickey | October 11, 2021 There has been no sign as to when nuclear talks with Iran may recommence. But after weeks of consultations, Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have reached a deal on “the way and the timing” for UN nuclear inspectors to service cameras installed at Iran’s nuclear facilities. This patchwork agreement has kept alive the possibility of recovering a complete picture of Iran’s nuclear program and of reviving the Iran nuclear deal since Iran cut inspector access in February. It is also the first real sign of cooperative engagement by Iran since President Ebrahim Raisi came to power in August.

The Iran nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, is the latest experiment in how much UN nuclear inspector access states will tolerate. However, it is under exceptional stress from those who believe military coercion is more effective than systems of denial in stemming proliferation. Days after the least competitive presidential election in the Islamic Republic’s history, a drone attack at a centrifuge production facility on June 23 damaged the IAEA’s monitoring and surveillance equipment. While the Israeli government did not comment on the attack, the Iran Centrifuge Technology Company, located in the city of Karaj, was reportedly “on a list of targets that Israel presented to the Trump administration early last year.” Now, Iran has allowed the IAEA to service cameras in every location but the Karaj site.

Acts of sabotage are diametrically opposed to the global nuclear verification regime because states need to believe that punishment will cease if they comply with the agreed-to framework. Further, failure to revive the nuclear deal could remove the possibility of applying the verification tools gained to other proliferation challenges like North Korea or the next nuclear threshold state. The loss of these techniques would undermine efforts to improve the global nonproliferation regime. As the United States’ experiences in leaving Afghanistan make clear, accurate intelligence is critical to making informed decisions and avoiding a crisis. The wrong assumptions can have dire consequences.

Verification evolution: Iraq and the old gold standard. The current nuclear verification protocols are the strongest in history and prioritize the non-diversion of nuclear materials over sovereign jurisdiction; however, many of these legal instruments were born out of crisis and remain voluntary, not mandatory……………………..

Specifically, the Iran nuclear deal caps the quantity and level of enrichment of uranium as well as the number and sophistication of the centrifuges that are operating and limits heavy water production. It also provides continuous monitoring of centrifuges and centrifuge rotor tubes, continuous access to Natanz, the monitoring of the production or acquisition of any uranium ore concentrate and enhanced managed access, meaning the IAEA can inspect a suspected violation.

The deal also instilled two key principles that should be universalized. First, a civilian nuclear program should be commensurate to its energy or related needs. Second, the IAEA has the right to monitor a ban on “weaponization” activities, which are activities related to developing or procuring equipment for developing nuclear weapons. …………

These measures, at least until the deal expires, will provide a high degree of confidence that weapons-related activity is not occurring. They could also be promoted as a model for other countries wanting to give confidence in the peaceful nature of their own nuclear facilities………

If the politics of the Iranian nuclear program are too challenging, then the new verification tools will not be useful to solve a real crisis if one crops up in Iran or elsewhere. The great arms control theorist and developer of game theory Thomas Schelling opened his book Arms and Influence with the reflection: “One of the lamentable principles of human productivity is that it is easier to destroy than to create.” Let’s hope the groundbreaking verification and monitoring tools of the Iran nuclear deal are not a casualty of human initiative. https://thebulletin.org/2021/10/preventing-an-accidental-nuclear-crisis-in-iran-and-beyond/

October 12, 2021 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

US calls for ‘imminent’ return to nuclear talks with Iran

US calls for ‘imminent’ return to nuclear talks with Iran, Aljazeera, 9 Oct 21,
State Department spokesperson says US is ‘willing and able’ to resume negotiations as soon as Iran agrees.
Indirect US-Iran talks in Vienna to revive the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal have been on ice since June [Handout via Reuters]7 Oct 2021

The Biden administration has called for an “imminent” return to talks in Vienna to revive the Iran nuclear deal, but said a resumption of the negotiations is “hinging on the Iranians”.

State Department spokesperson Ned Price told reporters on Thursday that Washington is willing to continue the talks as soon as Tehran agrees to re-engage in the negotiations, stressing that the path to diplomacy is still open.

Pakistan and Iran discuss border security, AfghanistanIran ‘concerned’ by Israeli ‘presence’ in the CaucasusIranian foreign minister meets top Lebanese officials

Negotiations have been on ice since June, shortly after the election of Iran’s conservative President Ebrahim Raisi.

“We have made very clear that we are prepared, willing and able to return to Vienna as soon as we have a partner to negotiate with,” Price said.

The 2015 multilateral nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), saw Iran scale back its nuclear programme in exchange for lifting international sanctions against its economy………….  https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/7/us-calls-for-imminent-return-to-nuclear-talks-with-iran

October 9, 2021 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment