Dutch engineer spread Stuxnet in Iran nuclear plant in 2008: report
IT Wire, By Sam Varghese, 9 Jan 24
A Dutchman was responsible for infecting equipment at Iran’s Natanz nuclear plant in 2008 with the Stuxnet virus, leading to years of delay in the country’s nuclear program, a Dutch publication, Volkskrant, claims.
Erik van Sabben, who was 36 at the time, is claimed to have carried out the task after having been recruited in 2005 by the AIVD, a Dutch intelligence outfit.
A few years ago, Volksrant claimed Van Sabben had been recruited by AIVD and also another Dutch intelligence outfit, MIVD.
Stuxnet was discovered by researcher Sergey Ulasen in 2010; he joined Russian security firm Kaspersky a year later. At that time, the virus was believed to have been infiltrated into the Natanz plant through an USB drive as the lab was not connected to any external network………………………………..
Another new claim by Volksrant was that Stuxnet, which is believed to have been developed jointly by the NSA and Israel’s Unit 8200, cost more than US$1 billion to create.
Reacting to the story, Costin Raiu, long-time head of Kaspersky’s Global Research & Analysis Team who left the company last year, said: “Some interesting points from the article: Stuxnet cost more than US$1 billion to build (!).
“If true, it was brought into Natanz in a ‘water pump’, that later spread it to the network.
“The guy who did this died in 2009, so very important detail, the Stuxnet variant he brought in 2007 would be a really early one, like Stuxnet 0.5.
“IMHO, the really impactful variants were the later ones, that were seeded through five different organisations in Iran, in 2009 and 2010.”
Mikko Hypponen, chief research officer at security firm WithSecure, said he did not buy the claim of the US$1 billion price tag. “Millions, certainly, dozens of millions, sure. A billion? I don’t think so,” he said. https://itwire.com/business-it-news/security/dutch-engineer-spread-stuxnet-in-iran-nuclear-plant-report.html
US eyes reports Iran has accelerated uranium enrichment
Aljazeera, 27 Dec 23
Tension has risen between Washington and Tehran amid the Israel-Gaza war.
The United States has expressed deep concern over reports that Iran has accelerated its production of weapons-grade uranium.
The comments from a White House National Security Council spokesperson came late on Tuesday in response to a report issued by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that warned that Tehran has accelerated production of the high-grade material……………………………
The United Nations atomic watchdog’s report to member states said that Iran has increased the rate at which it is producing near weapons-grade uranium in recent weeks, reversing a previous slowdown that started in in mid-2023.
Iran had previously slowed the rate at which it was enriching uranium – the process of raising the level of uranium-235, the isotope used in nuclear fission – to 60 percent purity. Uranium enriched at 60 percent is just a step away from weapons-grade levels of 90 percent. Nuclear power stations require 3.67 percent.
The IAEA said its inspectors had verified the increased rate of production since the end of November at facilities in Natanz and Fordow to about 9kg (20lb) per month, the same level of production that Iran was maintaining in the first half of 2023 before a drop to 3kg (6.6lb) per month in June.
Raised tension
Iran appeared to have slowed its enrichment programme earlier this year as a gesture as informal talks with the US over a nuclear treaty resumed. But the Israel-Gaza war has raised tensions between Washington and Tehran………………………………….more https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/27/us-frets-over-irans-accelerated-uranium-enrichment-programme—
Iran undoes slowdown in enrichment of uranium to near weapons-grade -IAEA
Russia has completed its delivery of nuclear weapons to Belarus, according
to its president, Alexander Lukashenko. Lukashenko was in St. Petersburg,
Russia, for the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council on Monday when he told
reporters that the last delivery of tactical nuclear weapons from the
Kremlin occurred in early October.
UPI 26th Dec 2023
Is Biden taking the Iran nuclear deal off life support?
If the JCPOA really is dead, as a top State Department appointee declared last week, that’s an own goal for the US and a huge risk for regional security
ELDAR MAMEDOV, DEC 12, 2023, Responsible Statecraft
When Joe Biden was running for U.S. president, he promised to reverse many of his predecessor’s decisions on foreign policy, generally hewing towards more restraint and diplomacy, and less bluster, militarism, and unilateralism. That included restoring the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) from which Donald Trump withdrew in 2018 — despite evidence, shared even by his own officials, that the deal was delivering on its core objective to block Iran’s pathways to a nuclear weapon. On December 7, 2023, Biden’s nominee for deputy secretary of state, the current National Security Council Coordinator for Indo-Pacific Affairs, Kurt Campbell, effectively declared the JCPOA dead………………………………..
Although the prospects for a revived JCPOA have been dim since at least 2022 — for which Iran carries a fair share of blame — officials from the Biden administration until now have largely refrained from using such threatening language against Iran. Conclusively abandoning any effort to revive the JCPOA does not serve U.S. interests and is in fact counterproductive.
Addressing students at Tehran University a few days after Campbell’s Senate testimony, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian downplayed the relevance of the JCPOA by reportedly saying that the “more we move forward, the more JCPOA becomes pointless. We will not force ourselves to remain in the narrow tunnel of the JCPOA forever.”
So, the Biden administration finds itself in the rather awkward position of effectively agreeing with Tehran, but this was a self-inflicted problem: by refusing, for three years now, to engage with its critics and the broader public on the agreement’s benefits to the U.S. and global security, it has allowed the notion that the JCPOA was some kind of reward for Iran, rather than a deal that strictly curbed Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, to become conventional wisdom. As is evident in Abdollahian’s remarks, Iranians today certainly do see the JCPOA as a “narrow tunnel” that limits their options………………………………………….
If ever there was a mechanism that would prove effective in preventing Iran from acquiring a bomb, it was the JCPOA. In light of Abdollahian’s remarks (which clearly reflect a growing skepticism about the JCPOA in Iran), the Biden administration, by publicly disowning the deal, is in fact removing obstacles to further Iranian nuclear escalation.
Unless Biden is prepared to accept the advice of the late international relations scholar Kenneth Waltz, who, in an influential 2012 Foreign Affairs article, argued that an Iranian bomb would stabilize the Middle East, it is not clear what his administration would do in place of a revived JCPOA to check additional Iranian nuclear advances.
Campbell emphasized the “current environment” as an additional factor rendering a JCPOA revival infeasible. In fact, if he was referring to the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, then it is precisely such a conflict that makes some sort of a direct dialogue between Washington and Tehran — on nuclear, but also regional security issues — all the more urgent if a wider war is to be avoided. Substituting such a dialogue with military threats at a moment when the U.S. is providing Israel virtually unconditional support, including the lavish replenishment of its arms stocks, the deployment of marines and two aircraft carrier task forces to the region, and the veto of a U.N. Security Council Resolution calling for a ceasefire, could do more to incentivize Iranians to seek a nuclear deterrent than anything else.
Vows to isolate Iran “internationally and diplomatically” are also unwarranted as Iran, despite its rhetorical support for Hamas, has so far demonstrated considerable restraint. While hardline ideological hostility to Israel is wired into the Islamic Republic’s identity, the actual position Tehran adopted towards the Israel-Palestine conflict is much more nuanced, more in line with the Arab and Islamic (and indeed broad international) mainstream consensus that insists on a viable two-state solution. Instead of building on these shifts, however modest and tentative, Washington seems to prefer to double down on confrontation.
The sad irony is that this explosive situation could have been avoided had Joe Biden had the courage and wisdom to deliver on his own election campaign promise to restore the nuclear agreement with Iran. ………. https://responsiblestatecraft.org/biden-iran-nuclear-deal/
Iran Dismisses Fears Over Its Nuclear Program
Iran has dismissed global concern over its “peaceful nuclear program, claiming it poses “no threat” and does not require a new treaty deal.
Iran International 12 Dec23
Foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani spoke of Iran’s “commitment to peaceful endeavors within international frameworks” in response to rising international concern over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear activities.
He told a press briefing in Tehran: “This has been recognized and confirmed in fifteen reports by the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency], highlighting Iran’s missile activities as part of its deterrent capabilities. Our activities in this regard are transparent and pose no threat to anyone.”
Kanaani rejected suggestions that the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear treaty should be revived, saying: “Iran no longer considers the JCPOA necessary.”
Addressing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s “robust disapproval” over Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s recent unannounced visit to Moscow, Kanaani said: “We do not pay attention to the statements of specific parties in bilateral relations between Iran and friendly countries. Such statements will not affect our efforts to deepen relations with partners in various fields.”………………………. https://www.iranintl.com/en/202312114383
Iran warning: Israel provoking ‘inevitable expansion’ of war after IDF conducts flag-raising ceremony in Gaza
Tyler Durden, ZeroHedge, Fri, 10 Nov 2023
On Friday Israeli media produced this headline hailing that “Israeli flags wave proudly along the shores of Gaza”. Starting on Thursday footage began widely circulating online showing IDF troops holding an Israeli flag raising ceremony, laying stake to conquered areas of the Strip. In a short speech during the ceremony on a Gaza beach, just prior to leading troops in the national anthem, an IDF soldier said “this is our land” and told his forces they are leading the way for Jews “to return to our lands.”
Israeli military official says Gaza is theirs:
“We returned, we were expelled from here almost 20 years ago. We started this battle divided & ended it united. We are fighting for the Land of Israel. this is our land! And that is the victory, to return to our lands” pic.twitter.com/IG3nB3zFAW— Younis Tirawi | يونس (@ytirawi) November 9, 2023Following this highly provocative scene, on Friday Iran issued a new warning, saying that Israel’s expansion of its operations and attacks on Gaza hospitals and other provocative acts make an expansion of the scope of the war “inevitable”.
Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian conveyed the statement in a phone call with Qatar’s prime minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, according to state media.
“Due to the expansion of the intensity of the war against Gaza’s civilian residents, expansion of the scope of the war has become inevitable,” Amirabdollahian said. He separately posted to X that “time is running out” for Israel, and stated, “The only benefit of Netanyahu was that he made the foundations of the fake Israeli regime more shaky and showed the criminal, violent, and aggressive face of the Zionist regime in the massacre of women and children in Gaza.”
* * *
After reports emerged starting Wednesday and Thursday that Israeli tanks had pushed to the center of Gaza City, Palestinian officials have said tanks have drawn close to and have surrounded key hospitals where thousands of Palestinians are taking shelter as wounded patients are receiving treatment. They said Friday that air strikes have hit the Strip’s biggest hospital, Al Shifa, killing at least one and wounding several others.
Other hospitals were were also reportedly struck at dawn, including strikes on the grounds of the Indonesian Hospital and the Rantissi cancer hospital, according to eyewitnesses cited in Reuters. Sprawling tent encampments of the internally displaced can be seen on the hospital campuses, but Israel claims that Hamas has ‘terror tunnels’ underneath, and further that the group has a base of operations in Rantissi hospital. Civilians waiving white flags have been trapped, in at least one instance coming under fire while trying to escape. Gazan authorities say the Israel’s military is firing on them, while Israel claims Hamas is shooting its own people to keep them as “human shields”.
………………………………………………………………………………..”People have sent appeals from inside al-Rantisi Hospital and Nasser Hospital, asking to be allowed to flee,” Al Jazeera writes.
And yet the situation is growing more dangerous for civilians as the bombs fall. Gaza health ministry has alleged that Israeli jets struck al-Shifa Hospital buildings five times since Thursday night. This sent some of the civilians leaving for more potentially safe areas.
“They shelled the maternity department and the outpatient clinics building. One Palestinian was killed and several were wounded in the early morning attack,” the health ministry said
……………………………………….. Meanwhile the UN and aid organizations have had new issues getting trucks into the Strip and to the necessary locations amid “hell on Earth” – as the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) described.
…………………………. “We cannot drive to the north at the current point, which is of course deeply frustrating because we know there are several hundred thousand people who remain in the north,” said OCHA spokesperson Jens Laerke.
“If there is a hell on Earth today, its name is northern Gaza,” he said. “It is a life of fear by day and darkness at night and what do you tell your children in such a situation, it’s almost unimaginable – that the fire they see in the sky is out to kill them?”
There have been reports that top US and Israeli officials are in Doha seeking potential hostage deals via Qatar government mediation. But Israeli President Isaac Herzog has said “there is no real proposal” currently on the table, NBC News reports. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israeli-tanks-have-gaza-hospitals-surrounded-un-decries-hell-earth #Israel #Palestine
UN nuclear agency slams Iran for barring inspectors from monitoring program
The UN nuclear watchdog has criticised Iran for effectively barring several of its most experienced inspectors from monitoring the country’s program.
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi on Saturday condemned Iran’s “disproportionate and unprecedented” move to bar multiple inspectors assigned to the country, hindering its oversight of Tehran’s atomic activities.
Iran’s move is a response to a call led by the United States, Britain, France and Germany at the IAEA’s Board of Governors this week for Tehran to cooperate immediately with the agency on issues including explaining uranium traces found at undeclared sites.
Grossi made clear, however, that he believed Iran had overreacted.
“I strongly condemn this disproportionate and unprecedented unilateral measure which affects the normal planning and conduct of agency verification activities in Iran and openly contradicts the cooperation that should exist between the agency and Iran,” he said in a statement.
The strongly worded statement came amid longstanding tensions between Iran and the agency, which is tasked with monitoring a nuclear program that Western nations have long suspected is aimed at eventually developing a nuclear weapon. Iran insists the program is peaceful.
Iran’s move, known as “de-designation” of inspectors, is allowed; member states can generally veto inspectors assigned to visit their nuclear facilities under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and each country’s safeguards agreement with the agency governing inspections.
But the IAEA said Tehran’s decision went beyond normal practice. It said Iran had told it that it would bar “several” inspectors, without giving a number.
“These inspectors are among the most experienced agency experts with unique knowledge in enrichment technology,” the agency said. “With today’s decision, Iran has effectively removed about one third of the core group of the agency’s most experienced inspectors designated for Iran.”
Iran’s foreign ministry linked the move to what it said was an attempt by the US and three European countries to misuse the body “for their own political purposes”. He appeared to be referring to Britain, France and Germany, which said on Thursday they would maintain sanctions on Iran related to its nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
“Of course, Iran will continue its positive cooperation within the framework of the agreements that have been made, and emphasise the necessity of the agency’s neutrality,” he added.
A Vienna-based diplomat said Iran had de-designated all the French and German members of the IAEA inspection team. There were already no US or British members.
The Vienna-based IAEA reported earlier this month that Iran had slowed the pace at which it is enriching uranium to nearly weapons-grade levels. That was seen as a sign that Tehran was trying to ease tensions after years of strain between it and the US.
Iran and the US are negotiating a prisoner swap and the release of billions of dollars in Iranian assets frozen in South Korea.
Then-President Donald Trump unilaterally pulled the US out of the accord in 2018, restoring crippling sanctions. Iran began breaking the terms a year later. Formal talks in Vienna to try to restart the deal collapsed in August 2022.
Iran says ready to settle remaining dispute with IAEA over nuclear program
IXinhua https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202307/27/WS64c15113a31035260b818ab4.html 2023-07-27
TEHRAN – Iran’s nuclear chief said on Wednesday the country is determined to close a remaining case of outstanding differences with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) regarding its nuclear program, according to the Iranian Students’ News Agency.
Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of a cabinet meeting in the Iranian capital Tehran on Wednesday, President of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) Mohammad Eslami said the country has sent a “comprehensive and written” response to the IAEA regarding the two remaining “undeclared sites,” in which the agency claims to have found “traces of uranium.”
If the agency does not accept the response and has any uncertainty or doubt regarding the issue, Iran will provide further explanation and review the documents, he added.
The AEOI chief said his organization is enriching uranium according to the level stipulated in a 2020 law passed by the Iranian parliament to counter the U.S. sanctions.
He added Iran’s “relations with the agency are based on the agreement reached with IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi during his visit to Tehran in March as well as the safeguards agreements and the Non-Proliferation Treaty and we are implementing what we have agreed to do.”
He noted that Iran and the IAEA are in “constant and sustainable” interactions with each other.
Faced with international sanctions, the country signed a nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), with world powers in July 2015, agreeing to put some curbs on its nuclear program in return for the removal of the sanctions on the country. The United States, however, pulled out of the deal in May 2018 and reimposed its unilateral sanctions on Iran, prompting the latter to drop some of its nuclear commitments according to the law passed by its parliament in December 2020.
The Iranian parliament’s law mandated the government to restrict inspections of Iran’s nuclear facilities by the IAEA and accelerate the development of the country’s nuclear program beyond the limits set under the JCPOA.
The talks on the JCPOA’s revival began in April 2021 in Vienna. No breakthrough has been achieved after the latest round of talks in August 2022.
Iranian Supreme Leader Says ‘Nothing Wrong’ With A Nuclear Deal With West
https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-khamenei-nuclear-deal-approval/32454257.html 12 June 23
Iran’s supreme leader said on June 11 that a deal with the West over Tehran’s nuclear work was possible if the country’s atomic infrastructure remained intact, amid a stalemate between Tehran and Washington to revive a 2015 nuclear pact.
Months of indirect talks between Tehran and Washington to salvage the nuclear accord with six major powers have stalled since September, with each side accusing the other of making unreasonable demands. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s guarded approval comes days after both Tehran and Washington denied a report that they were nearing an interim deal. To read the original story by Reuters, click here.
Oman facilitating Iran-US talks to replace 2015 nuclear accord
MUSCAT DAILY, 12 JUN 2023
Tehran, Iran – Iran on Monday said it has continued indirect negotiations with the Unites States through the Sultanate of Oman over its nuclear deal and a possible prisoner swap.
Iran’s nuclear programme has long been the subject of scrutiny from Western powers, resulting in sanctions that have crippled the country’s economy.
A 2015 deal granted Tehran much-needed relief from sanctions in exchange for curbs on its nuclear programme before it was torpedoed by the United States’ unilateral pullout in 2018.
In recent days, the two capitals have denied media reports that they were close to reaching an interim deal to replace the 2015 accord.
“We welcome the efforts of Omani officials and we exchanged messages with the other party through this mediator” over the lifting of US sanctions, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said on Monday.
“We have never stopped the diplomatic processes,” he added during his weekly press conference, emphasising that the talks “were not secret”.
Diplomatic ties between Tehran and Washington soured following the 1979 revolution led by Iran’s first supreme leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.
Efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal have so far failed to yield results.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Sunday reiterated the denial of moves towards acquiring a nuclear weapon. He also said deals could be reached, provided they do not change “the existing infrastructure of the nuclear industry”……………………………………………..more https://www.muscatdaily.com/2023/06/12/oman-facilitating-iran-us-talks-to-replace-2015-nuclear-accord/
Major Progress Made in Nuclear Talks Between U.S. and Iran in Preparation for a New Agreement
Amos Harel Haaretz 7 June 23
Israel expects an agreement to be reached within a few weeks, with the understandings expected to include an Iranian agreement to stop uranium enrichment at high levels in return for easing sanctions.
In an effort to reach an agreement on a nuclear deal, the contacts between the United States and Iran have made major progress in the past few days. Israeli defense officials say the talks are moving forward more rapidly than expected, with the possibility that the two sides will reach an agreement within weeks………. (Subscribers only) https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-06-07/ty-article/.premium/major-progress-made-in-nuclear-talks-between-u-s-and-iran/00000188-94bd-df21-a1b8-b7bd413d0000
Iran increasing enriched uranium stocks, holding 23 times the limit, says nuclear watchdog
ABC News 1 June 23
Iran has significantly increased its stockpile of enriched uranium in recent months, continuing its nuclear escalation, a confidential report by the UN nuclear watchdog said.
Key points:
- Iran has enough uranium enriched to up to 60 per cent for two bombs
- The IAEA estimates Iran’s stockpile is now 23 times the 202.8-kg limit imposed by the 2015 deal
- The reports said Iran had given a satisfactory answer explaining the presence of uranium particles at one site
The agency, however, noted progress in its cooperation with Iran in a separate report saying it has decided to close the file on nuclear material at an undeclared site, an issue which has long exacerbated relations between the two parties.
The two confidential reports come days before the board of governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is due to meet to review progress in addressing the watchdog’s remaining concerns…………………………………………………………….. more https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-01/iran-nuclear-monitoring-equipment-iaea/102418980
West considers renewed engagement on Iran nuclear crisis
Diplomatic shift comes amid fears Tehran’s expansive programme risks regional war
Ft.com Andrew England in London, Felicia Schwartz in Washington and Najmeh Bozorgmehr in Tehran 2 June 23
US and European powers have resumed discussions on how to engage with Iran over its nuclear activity as fears mount that the Islamic republic’s aggressive expansion of its programme risks triggering a regional war.
The move marks a shift in western thinking and underscores concerns about an escalating crisis, as Tehran has enriched uranium to such levels that US officials have warned in recent months that it could produce sufficient material for a nuclear weapon in less than two weeks.
“There is recognition that we need an active diplomatic plan to tackle Iran’s nuclear programme, rather than allowing it to drift,” said a western diplomat. “The thing that worries me is that Iran’s decision-making is quite chaotic and it could stumble its way into war with Israel.”
……………………………………………………………..there has been contact with Iranian officials in recent months, including a meeting in Oslo in March between officials from the so-called E3 — France, Germany and the UK — and Ali Bagheri Kani, Iran’s nuclear negotiator.
……………………… Diplomats and analysts say potential options include some form of interim deal, or a de-escalatory move by both sides under which Iran reduces its enrichment levels in return for some sanctions relief.
…………………….Israel’s officials have warned the Jewish state would do whatever it needs to prevent Iran developing a nuclear weapon…………………………. https://www.ft.com/content/9139fda2-ad65-4713-847e-58ec62a05bde
After AP report, Iran’s nuclear chief says Tehran to cooperate with inspectors on ‘new activities’
The head of Iran’s nuclear program is insisting that his nation will cooperate with international inspectors on any “new activities” regarding its nuclear sector
abc news, ByJON GAMBRELL Associated Press, May 24, 2023
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — The head of Iran’s nuclear program insisted Wednesday that his government would cooperate with international inspectors on any “new activities.” His statement followed an exclusive Associated Press report about Tehran’s new underground tunnel system near a nuclear enrichment facility.
The AP outlined this week how deep inside a mountain, the new tunnels near the Natanz facility are likely beyond the range of a last-ditch U.S. weapon designed to destroy such sites…………………. more https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/after-ap-report-irans-nuclear-chief-tehran-cooperate-99562281
Five years after Trump’s exit, no return to the Iran nuclear deal
Trump’s slew of sanctions and a changing political climate have contributed to JCPOA remaining in limbo.
Aljjazeera On 8 May 20238 May 2023
Tehran, Iran – Five years ago today, President Donald Trump held up a signed executive order for the cameras at the White House, announcing a unilateral withdrawal from a nuclear deal the United States had signed in 2015 with Iran and world powers.
Despite years of efforts, and after many ups and downs, the landmark accord known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), has not been restored, contributing to rising tensions across the region.
The Trump administration’s many designations of Iranian entities and institutions, specifically aimed at making it difficult for his successor Joe Biden to undo his damage, worked in tandem with a changing political climate to prevent a restored JCPOA.
The then-US president had argued that the deal was not doing enough to permanently keep Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, and Trump rejoiced as he undid one of the most important foreign policy achievements of his predecessor Barack Obama.
His administration set out a dozen conditions to renegotiate a deal more favourable to Washington with Tehran, which would effectively amount to a total political capitulation by Iran…………………………
Iranian leaders, however, have not surrendered their doctrine of defying the US, and attacks by pro-Iran groups on US interests across the region have only multiplied in recent years, according to Washington.
The US assassination of Iran’s top general Qassem Soleimani in Iraq in early 2020 took tensions to new heights, with Tehran and Washington teetering on the edge of war…………………………………………………………..
JCPOA in the region
Since its inception, Israel has been the JCPOA’s biggest foe, incessantly lobbying Washington to declare the deal dead.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised Trump after his reneging on the deal, and Tel Aviv has repeatedly pushed against efforts by other signatories – namely China, Russia, France, Germany and the United Kingdom – to restore the accord through now-stalled talks that began in 2021.
Israel has also warned it will attack Iran to stop it from acquiring a bomb, and Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, last week said the US president is willing to recognise “Israel’s freedom of action” if necessary.
The comment drew ire in Tehran, prompting security chief Ali Shamkhani to deem it a US admission of responsibility for Israeli attacks on Iranian facilities and nuclear scientists.
Elsewhere in the Middle East, many Arab states, led by Saudi Arabia, also cheered for Trump as they expressed concern over Tehran’s nuclear programme – which it maintains is strictly peaceful – and its support for proxies across the region.
But as Tehran also ramped up the pressure, and the US gradually saw its role in the region diminished, Arab leaders recognised a need for change.
The 2019 attack on Saudi oil facilities by the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen, and the subsequent non-response from Washington, appeared to be a turning point for Arab nations.
After two years of direct talks, Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed in March to restore diplomatic relations in a deal mediated by China, and embassies are expected to be reopened this week.
More challenges ahead
At least for now, JCPOA stakeholders appear to be content with maintaining the status quo while managing tensions.
The passing of two Western-introduced resolutions last year at the board of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that censured Iran – and Tehran’s response – and a deadlock in talks since September have not prompted any side to declare the JCPOA dead in the absence of a better alternative for the accord.
The deal’s fate, however, promises to produce more confrontations between Tehran and the West in the coming months.
The Western parties have already reportedly warned Iran that if it further increases its enrichment of uranium to levels that could be potentially used to produce a bomb, it will prompt them to activate the deal’s so-called “snapback” mechanism that will automatically reinstate the United Nations sanctions on Iran.
Iran and the IAEA reached an agreement in Tehran in March to increase cooperation, which could potentially prevent another resolution at the upcoming board meeting of the nuclear watchdog in June.
Another major deadline arrives in October when the JCPOA is set to lift a number of restrictions on Iran’s research, development and production of long-range missiles and drones.
With Israel also pushing for snapback and the West accusing Tehran of selling armed drones to Russia for the war in Ukraine, stakeholders will have their work cut out for them in managing tensions during the coming months. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/8/five-years-after-trumps-exit-no-return-to-the-iran-nuclear-deal
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