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Biden, Netanyahu Closer to Consensus on Attacking Iran

Netanyahu convened his war cabinet on Thursday to approve plans

by Dave DeCamp October 10, 2024  https://news.antiwar.com/2024/10/10/biden-netanyahu-closer-to-consensus-on-attacking-iran/#gsc.tab=0

President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu moved closer to an understanding on Israel’s plans to attack Iran during their phone call on Wednesday, Axios reported on Thursday.

The report, which cited US and Israeli officials, said that the US had accepted Israel is going to launch a major attack on Iran soon and is only concerned that striking certain types of targets could dramatically escalate things. However, Iran has vowed it will respond to any type of Israeli attack, and the situation could easily turn into a full-blown war that would involve the US.

An Israeli official told Axios that the Israeli plans are still a bit more aggressive than the US would like. The US has been warning against striking nuclear facilities or oil infrastructure, and recent media reports have said Israel will likely target military infrastructure.

Netanyahu convened his security cabinet on Thursday to brief them on the situation with the US and is expected to get approval for him and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to set a timeline for the Israeli attack. The Times of Israel reported that the US and Israel will continue conversations on the plans in the coming days, signaling the attack is not imminent.

NBC News reported on Tuesday that the US was considering supporting Israel’s attack with direct airstrikes of its own, although US officials said intelligence support was more likely.

The Jerusalem Post reported that the US was offering Israel a “compensation package” of military aid and full diplomatic support if it only hits US-approved targets in Iran. The US has also committed to defending Israel from any Iranian response.

Iran fired nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel last week in response to a string of Israeli escalations, including the assassination of Hamas’s political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran. Immediately after the attack, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said the US would work with Israel to ensure Iran suffers “severe consequences.”

October 14, 2024 Posted by | Iran, Israel, USA, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Report: US Considers Launching Airstrikes Against Iran To Support Israeli Attack

US officials say Israel hasn’t briefed the US on its specific plans to attack Iran,

by Dave DeCamp October 8, 2024,  https://news.antiwar.com/2024/10/08/report-us-considers-launching-airstrikes-against-iran-to-support-israeli-attack/#gsc.tab=0


The US has discussed the idea of supporting Israel’s expected attack on Iran with intelligence or with airstrikes of its own, NBC News reported on Tuesday, citing two unnamed US officials.

The report said senior US military officials have discussed launching “very limited” airstrikes against Iranian targets inside Iran or outside of the country, though the US officials said intelligence support for Israel was more likely.

So far, no final decision on US action has been made, according to the report, and the US officials said Israel has not briefed the US on its specific plans to strike Iran in response to the Iranian missile barrage that hit Israel last week.

Iran launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles into Israel in response to multiple Israeli escalations in the region, including the July 31 assassination of Hamas’s political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran. In the aftermath, the US said it would work with Israel to ensure Iran faces “severe consequences” for the attack.

The NBC report said US officials were worried that Israel could launch its attack while Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant is meeting with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin at the Pentagon on Wednesday. However, after the report was published, Gallant’s trip to the US has been canceled.

Israeli media said the trip was postponed because Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to speak with President Biden and wants the Israeli security cabinet to agree on a plan to attack Iran before Gallant heads to Washington.

The Israelis are considering several types of targets to hit in Iran: military and intelligence infrastructure, air defenses, and energy facilities. Based on media reports, Israel does not plan to strike Iranian nuclear facilities in its first attack, but could if Iran hits back and the situation turns into a full-blown war, which Israeli officials think is likely to happen.

October 13, 2024 Posted by | Iran, USA, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Israeli retaliation threat sparks call in Iran for nuclear weapons

any decision to change Iran’s nuclear policy would rest with the supreme leader

“We want a world free of nuclear weapons and the region of Middle East free of WMDs (Weapons of Mass Destruction) without any preconditions!” Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said at last month’s gathering of world leaders at the UN General Assembly.

By Afp, 11 October 2024 ,
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/afp/article-13946359/Israeli-retaliation-threat-sparks-call-Iran-nuclear-weapons.html

With the prospect of Israeli retaliation for Iran’s missile attack looming, some Iranian hardliners want their government to revise its nuclear doctrine to pursue atomic weapons.

Israel has vowed to launch a “deadly, precise, and surprising” attack on Iran in retaliation for its second-ever direct strike on Israeli territory.

On October 1, Iran launched 200 missiles on Israel, in what it said was retaliation for the killing of Tehran-backed militant leaders and a general from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.

More than three dozen hardline lawmakers have submitted a letter to Iran’s top security body, the Supreme National Security Council, urging it to revisit the Islamic republic’s nuclear doctrine, local media said on Wednesday.

The parliamentarians also called on supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who wields ultimate authority in Iran, to reconsider his long-standing religious edict or fatwa banning nuclear weapons.

“Today, neither the international organisations nor… European countries or America can control the Zionist regime which commits crimes at will,” lawmaker Hassan Ali Akhalghi Amiri said, citing this as his reason for supporting the call.

Another lawmaker, Mohammad Reza Sabaghian, said “building nuclear weapons is Iran’s option to create deterrence”, according to the Ham Mihan daily.

On Tuesday, state media reported that parliament had received a bill on “the expansion of the country’s nuclear industry”, without elaborating.

The Islamic republic has maintained its policy against acquiring nuclear weapons, insisting its nuclear activities were entirely peaceful.

– ‘Red line’ –

Iran has been drawn into the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, with Tehran-backed Hamas and Hezbollah militants on the front lines of two wars with Israel………………………………………………….

US President Joe Biden has cautioned Israel against attempting to target Iran’s nuclear facilities, which would risk major retaliation, and opposed striking oil installations.

Iran has warned that any attack on its “infrastructure” would provoke an “even stronger response”, while Revolutionary Guards General Rassul Sanairad has said an attack on nuclear or energy sites would cross a “red line”.

– Message to the West –

Iranian political commentator Maziar Khosravi said the lawmakers’ letter is “rather a strong message addressed to Western supporters” of Israel “so that they try to control” it.

Ultimately, he said, any decision to change Iran’s nuclear policy would rest with the supreme leader, and “is not linked to the will of the MPs”.

It is far from the first time that Iran has seen debate over whether it should revisit its nuclear doctrine.

Shortly after Iran’s first-ever direct attack on Israel in April, Kamal Kharazi, an adviser to Khamenei, said the Islamic republic was not pursuing nuclear weapons.

But “if Israel dares to threaten Iran with a nuclear weapon, we may reconsider our nuclear doctrine”, he said in an interview with Al Jazeera at the time.

For Khosravi, it remains unlikely for Iran to change its doctrine in the meantime.

But “if Israel attacks the nuclear facilities, what seems likely to me at this stage is the withdrawal of Iran from the NPT”, he said, referring to the United Nations treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear weapons.

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian who took office in July has sought to revive a landmark 2015 nuclear deal to ease the country’s isolation and offset the economic impact of US sanctions.

The deal granted Iran sanctions relief in return for accepting curbs and monitoring that were designed to ensure it could not develop an atomic weapon covertly — a goal Iran has always denied having.

The accord has been hanging by a thread since the United States, under then-president Donald Trump, unilaterally withdrew from it in 2018.

Since the collapse of the deal, Iran has suspended its compliance with caps on nuclear activities.

“We want to tell the world that we are not after a nuclear bomb,” said Pezeshkian in an interview with CNN in New York last month.

“We want a world free of nuclear weapons and the region of Middle East free of WMDs (Weapons of Mass Destruction) without any preconditions!” he said at last month’s gathering of world leaders at the UN General Assembly.

October 12, 2024 Posted by | Iran, weapons and war | Leave a comment

IAEA Missing in action, on Israeli nuclear strike threats, Iranian outlet argues

Oct 9, 2024, https://www.iranintl.com/en/202410096802

As anticipation mounts over a potential counterstrike by Israel on Iran which could target nuclear sites, an Iranian media outlet has faulted the UN nuclear watchdog’s silence on the issue.

The relatively moderate Iranian news site Rouydad24 wrote in an editorial on Wednesday that despite the possibility of attacks on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) silence was perplexing.

“Should this silence be interpreted as tacit approval for such an attack, or does it imply the IAEA sees no reason for concern on this issue?” the editorial asked, suggesting that the agency’s silence could be interpreted as either passive endorsement or indifference to the potential threat.

The website characterized Western and Israeli discussions about the possibility Israel will destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities as a warning sign that the IAEA should intervene.

Publication of such articles in the tightly controlled Iranian media may indicate that the government’s top policy bodies have agreed or prompted a particular point of view to be made public.

The article may be an attempt by Iran to raise the issue of an IAEA intervention to stop a possible Israeli attack on its nuclear sites, especially since the US government has also voiced opposition to such a move.

Historically, the IAEA has remained neutral on political matters while stressing the importance of nuclear facility safety. Its statements generally focus on the consequences of strikes such as a potential radioactive release rather than on endorsing or opposing any party in a conflict.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine the IAEA took an unusually vocal stance on nuclear safety, especially around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Director-General Rafael Grossi has repeatedly warned of the severe risks from military actions near nuclear reactors and has called for a protective zone around ZNPP to prevent a potential radioactive disaster.

The outlet went on to posit that the IAEA’s silence on a possible Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear sites could be seen as an indication that the agency perceives Israel’s threats not as imminent actions but as strategic moves aimed at influencing Iran’s stance and pressuring the US to meet certain demands.

Last year, Grossi condemned what he called Iran’s “disproportionate and unprecedented” move to bar multiple inspectors assigned to the country, hindering the UN nuclear watchdog’s oversight of Tehran’s atomic activities.

The editorial may highlight a catch-22: by barring inspectors, Iran itself has limited the IAEA’s influence and capacity to respond effectively to the looming threat of a possible strike by Israel on nuclear targets.

Tehran’s removal of inspectors not only limits the IAEA’s influence but also isolates Iran further from the international system, complicating any calls for international intervention to prevent Israeli strikes.

As a threshold nuclear state, Iran has accumulated highly enriched fissile material for producing a nuclear weapon, though it has not yet taken the final step toward weaponization.

Although Tehran has consistently argued that its nuclear program is meant for peaceful purposes, the current state of its nuclear program, experts say, could act as a deterrent against Israeli aggression.

Some military analysts argue that Israel would require US assistance to effectively strike Iran’s nuclear targets. Despite this, the Biden administration has not received any assurance from Israel that targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities is off the table, according to a senior US State Department official who spoke to CNN last week.

October 12, 2024 Posted by | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

Biden Officials Say Ceasefire Talks Are Suspended as Harris Names Iran Top Enemy

The U.S. has reportedly all but given up on a ceasefire proposal it put forth just two weeks ago.

By Sharon Zhang , Truthout, October 8, 2024,  https://truthout.org/articles/biden-officials-say-ceasefire-talks-are-suspended-as-harris-names-iran-top-enemy/

iden officials have reportedly admitted that ceasefire negotiations amid Israel’s war on Lebanon and genocide in Gaza have been suspended, despite public insistence by high-powered figures within the administration that they are working around the clock for a ceasefire.

The Biden administration has given up on ceasefire talks after first proposing a deal for a 21-day ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel just two weeks ago, CNN reports, citing U.S. officials. The U.S. is “not actively trying to revive the deal,” the outlet wrote.

Two weeks ago, CNN reported that senior U.S. officials have also suspended efforts for ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas amid Israel’s genocide in Gaza. Officials said the effort isn’t totally canceled but admitted there is no political will for a ceasefire to happen; though officials blamed Hamas and Israel, Israeli officials have been openly sabotaging ceasefire negotiations, while Hamas officials have voiced support for numerous ceasefire proposals.

Though officials are admitting to the suspension of ceasefire talks in private, however, in public, officials are still claiming that the administration is pushing for a ceasefire. Just on Monday, in a statement recognizing the anniversary of the October 7, 2023, attack, President Joe Biden insinuated that talks are ongoing.

“We will not stop working to achieve a ceasefire deal in Gaza that brings the hostages home,” the president said. “We also continue to believe that a diplomatic solution across the Israel-Lebanon border region is the only path to restore lasting calm and allow residents on both sides to return safely to their homes.”

Vice President Kamala Harris also gestured toward the ceasefire talks in a statement Monday, saying, “It is far past time for a hostage and ceasefire deal to end the suffering of innocent people.”

However, as many experts have said, it has long been clear that the priority for the administration is not to secure a ceasefire, but rather to give Israel all of the tools it needs to carry out its genocide and, potentially, escalate tensions into a wider war in the Middle East. Indeed, in the same statement, Harris said: “I will always ensure Israel has what it needs to defend itself against Iran and Iran-backed terrorists like Hamas.”

Just last week, State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller seemed to openly admit that the goal of ceasefire negotiations has never been to actually achieve a ceasefire.

“We’ve never wanted to see a diplomatic resolution with Hamas,” Miller said in a press briefing, despite the administration having blamed Hamas officials for negotiation failures even as Israel has assassinated multiple top officials in Hamas and Hezbollah responsible for ceasefire negotiations.

Meanwhile, as Israel escalated tensions across the Middle East, including threatening to bomb key sites in Iran, Harris has named Iran as the U.S.’s current top enemy — rather than a country like Russia, a country that the U.S. is actively helping to fight amid its invasion of Ukraine.

When asked in her interview with “60 Minutes” that aired Sunday about the U.S.’s “greatest adversary” on the world stage, Harris said: “I think there’s an obvious one in mind which is Iran. Iran has American blood on their hands.” She raised Iran’s recent missile attack on Israel, and said one of her “highest priorities” is to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear capabilities.

This statement appears aimed at stoking tensions with Iran, gesturing toward a war with the country — a seeming goal of Israeli leaders, some analysts have said. It also ignores that, while it’s unclear what Harris is referring to when she suggests that Iran has killed Americans, Israel has killed many Americans just amid the genocide. Just last week, in fact, Israeli forces killed an American citizen, Hajj Kamel Ahmad Jawad, in a bombing on Lebanon.

October 10, 2024 Posted by | Iran, politics international, USA | Leave a comment

Carnegie nuclear expert James Acton explains why it would be counterproductive for Israel to attack Iran’s nuclear program

Bulletin, By John Mecklin | October 5, 2024

In the aftermath of Iran’s massive missile attack on Israel this week, it has become clear that Israeli missile defenses are robust. Of the estimated 180 ballistic missiles that Iran launched, only a small percentage evaded Israel’s anti-missile defenses, causing limited damage at or near some Israeli intelligence and military sites and apparently having little impact on Israeli military operations. But the attack marks a major escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict and has led to widespread speculation about when and where Israel will respond. Much of that speculation has centered on the question of whether Israel will attack facilities related to Iran’s nuclear program.

Late this week, I asked James Acton, a physicist and wide-ranging nuclear policy expert who co-directs the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, for his assessment of the Israel-Iran situation, especially as regards the possibility of an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. His answers follow in a lightly edited and condensed Q&A format.

John Mecklin: I gather you think it would be a bad idea for Israel to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. Can you explain why for our readers?

James Acton: Sure. If Israel or the United States tries to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, my belief is that that will harden Iranian resolve to acquire nuclear weapons without eliminating Iran’s capability to do so. Israel would be motivated, in part, to punish Iran for its recent attack on Israel, using that as an opportunity to try and destroy Iran’s nuclear program, so the Israelis didn’t have to worry about it in the future. I think if they decide to attack Iran’s nuclear program, they will find themselves worrying much more about Iran’s nuclear program in the future. We’ll elaborate on this, but an attack would, I believe, simultaneously harden Iranian resolve to acquire nuclear weapons while also not destroying permanently their capability to achieve that goal…………………….

…………..If the Iranian program today comprised a single reactor that had not been turned on, I think you could make a fair argument that it could be in Israel’s interests to attack it. But that’s nothing like what the Iranian program actually looks like…..

……………..But the Iranian program today is based around centrifuges, which are very small and can be manufactured quickly and placed almost anywhere. So even if an Israeli attack destroys Iran’s current centrifuge plants at Fordow and Natanz—and it’s not obvious to me that Iran has the capability to destroy Fordow, which is buried inside a mountain—but even if Israel can destroy Iran’s existing centrifuge plants, Iran is almost certainly going to reconstruct centrifuge facilities………………………………………………………………….

So people tend to say the Israelis can destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Even if that is true in the short term, the question they have to answer is: Then what?

Mecklin: Okay, the second question is: How likely do you think it is that Israel is actually contemplating attacking the nuclear facilities?

Acton: Let me distinguish between two ideas. Are they contemplating doing so? And will they do so?

I think there is an extremely high probability that there is a serious discussion going on right now in the Israeli Security Cabinet about whether to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. Many Israeli leaders have openly called for that at this juncture. And you know, Netanyahu has been publicly mentioning this possibility on and off for many years now. So I would be staggered if there was not a serious discussion within Israel right now about attacking Iranian nuclear facilities.

Would Israel actually go ahead and do that? I think it would be tough without a lot of US support. And Biden has come out and said unequivocally, no. And doing it without US support would do enormous damage to the US Israeli relationship. And I think the Israelis understand that.

I think the Israelis fully understand that if they attack Iran’s nuclear program, Iran then attacks Israel in a much larger way than we’ve seen before. The Israelis are going to want America’s help in defending against those attacks, and there must be at least some uncertainty in their mind, if they just point blank defy an American president, whether that help would be forthcoming. So for all of those reasons, if the US is being as clear in private as it is in public, I do think it’s substantially less than 50/50 that the Israelis are going to attack Iranian nuclear facilities. I think it’s higher than 10 percent, but it’s not, I think, 50/50. Which I find somewhat reassuring.

………………………..one thing that I feel pretty confident in saying is that if Iran has not yet made a decision to build a nuclear weapon, an Israeli strike makes it much, much more likely that It will make that decision to do so—both for reasons of defending the state and for reasons of domestic politics…….. more https://thebulletin.org/2024/10/carnegie-nuclear-expert-james-acton-explains-why-it-would-be-counterproductive-for-israel-to-attack-irans-nuclear-program/?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=MondayNewsletter10072024&utm_content=NuclearRisk_NuclearExpert_10062024#post-heading

October 8, 2024 Posted by | Iran, Israel, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Israel may launch symbolic attack on Iran nuclear-related facilities, says Ehud Barak

Israeli former prime minister says in interview it is too late to significantly set back Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, and that a ‘massive’ attack on Iran’s oil facilities is likely.

Julian Borger, Fri 4 Oct 2024 , https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/04/israel-may-launch-symbolic-attack-on-iran-nuclear-facilities-says-ehud-barak
Israel is likely to mount a large-scale airstrike against Iran’s oil industry and possibly a symbolic attack on a military target related to its nuclear programme, former Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak has predicted.

Barak said there was no doubt there would be an Israeli military response to Iran’s assault on Tuesday with over 180 ballistic missiles, most of which were intercepted, but some landed on and around densely populated areas and Israeli military bases.

“Israel has a compelling need, even an imperative, to respond. I think that no sovereign nation on Earth could fail to respond,” Barak said in an interview.

The former prime minister, who also served as defence minister, foreign minister and army chief of staff, said the model for the Israeli response could be seen in Sunday’s reprisal airstrikes against Houthi-controlled oil facilities, power plants and docks in the Yemeni port of Hodeidah, a day after Houthi fired missiles aimed at Israel’s international airport outside Tel Aviv.

“I think we might see something like that. It might be a massive attack, and it could be repeated more than once,” he told the Guardian. Joe Biden said on Thursday there had been discussions in Washington about a possible Israeli attack on Iran’s oil sector, but it not give any details or make clear whether the US would support such an assault.

Barak, now aged 82, said there had also been suggestions in Israel that it should make use of this opportunity, in reprisal for the Iranian attack, to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities, but he argued it would not significantly set back the Iranian programme.

When Barak served as defence minister from 2007 to 2013, under both Ehud Olmert and Benjamin Netanyahu, he was among Israel’s most vociferous advocates for bombing the Iranian nuclear facilities, trying and failing to convince presidents George Bush and then Barack Obama, to contribute US military might to the campaign.

On Wednesday, Biden followed Obama in voicing his opposition to any Israeli strikes against Iranian nuclear sites. And Barak himself now accepts the Iran nuclear programme is too far advanced for any bombing campaign to set it back significantly.

“There are some commentators and even some people within the defence establishment who raised the question: Why the hell not hit the nuclear military programme?” Barak said. “A little bit more than a decade ago, I was probably the most hawkish person in Israeli leadership arguing that it was worth considering very seriously, because there was an actual capability to delay them by several years.

“That’s not the case right now, because Iran is a de facto threshold country,” he argued. “They do not have yet a weapon – it may take them a year to have one, and even half a decade to have a small arsenal. Practically speaking, you cannot easily delay them in any significant manner.”

Under a 2015 multilateral nuclear agreement, Tehran accepted tight restrictions on its uranium enrichment and other elements of its programme in exchange for sanctions relief, but that agreement has steadily fallen apart since the US withdrawal under Donald Trump in 2018.

Iran now has a stockpile of enriched uranium that is 30 times higher than the agreed 2015 limit, and it is enriching uranium to up to 60% purity, which in terms of the additional processing required, is very close to 90% weapons grade fissile material. Under the 2015 agreement, Iran’s “breakout time” – the period it would need to produce a nuclear bomb – was at least a year. Now it is a few weeks.

Barak believes there is pressure within the Netanyahu government for at least some symbolic strike against the Iranian programme, even though the former prime minister sees such a gesture as futile.

“You can cause certain damage, but even this might be perceived by some of the planners as worth the risk because the alternative is to sit idly by and do nothing,” Barak said. “So probably there will be even an attempt to hit certain nuclear-related targets.”

While Barak believes that a significant Israeli military response to Tuesday night’s Iranian military attack is now unavoidable and justifiable, he argues the drift to a regional war could have been averted much earlier, if Netanyahu had been open to a US-promoted plan to rally Arab support for a postwar Palestinian government in Gaza to replace Hamas. Instead, Israel’s incumbent prime minister opposed any political “day after” solution that recognised Palestinian sovereignty.

“I think that a strong response is inevitable. That doesn’t mean it was written in heaven a year ago that it’s going to happen,” Barak said. “There were probably several opportunities to limit this conflict before it turned into something like a full-scale Middle East clash. For reasons that cannot be explained under any strategic thought, Netanyahu rejected any kind of discussion of what we call ‘the day after’.

“I do not put the blame for the whole event on Netanyahu. This is basically the fault of Hamas and Hezbollah and Iran behind them,” Barak said. “But having said that, we have a responsibility to take action under a certain innate logic that understands the situation, the opportunity, and the constraints. There is an old Roman saying: ‘If you don’t know which port you want to reach, no wind will take you there.

October 5, 2024 Posted by | Iran, Israel, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Sullivan: US Will Ensure Iran Faces ‘Severe Consequences’ for Attacking Israel

 October 2, 2024 , By Dave DeCamp / Antiwar.com

US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on Tuesday that the US would work with Israel to ensure Iran faces “severe consequences” for launching a missile attack on Israel, which came in response to recent Israeli escalations.

“There will be severe consequences for this attack, and we will work with Israel to make that the case,” Sullivan told reporters at the White House.

President Biden said the US was in “active discussions” with Israel on what the response would be. “The United States is fully, fully, fully supportive of Israel,” he said.

Media reports say Iran fired at least 180 missiles at Israel. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said the attack was launched in retaliation for the Israeli assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, the killing of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, and Abbas Nilforoushan, an IRGC commander who was killed alongside Nasrallah.

The IRCG has claimed that 90% of the missiles hit their targets, while Israel claimed most were intercepted. Videos have surfaced that show Iranian missiles making an impact on Israeli military sites. So far, there’s been no word on Israeli deaths, but a Palestinian in the Israeli-occupied West Bank was killed when shrapnel from an intercepted missile fell on Jericho.

The US said that it helped Israel intercept some of the Iranian missiles and portrayed the defense as a success. Sullivan said the Iranian attack “appears to have been defeated and ineffective.”

…………………………………………Iran has signaled that it’s done attacking Israel but warned there would be a “crushing response” if Israel hits back. Israeli officials have made clear that they plan to respond.

“There will be consequences,” said Israeli military spokesman Daniel Hagari. “Our defensive and offensive capabilities are at the highest levels of readiness. Our operational plans are ready. We will respond wherever, whenever, and however we choose, in accordance with the directive of the government of Israel.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran will “pay” for the attack. “This evening, Iran made a big mistake — and it will pay for it,” he said at a security cabinet meeting. “The regime in Tehran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and to exact a price from our enemies.”  https://scheerpost.com/2024/10/02/sullivan-us-will-ensure-iran-faces-severe-consequences-for-attacking-israel/

October 3, 2024 Posted by | Iran, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Iran ready for nuclear talks at UN ‘if other parties willing’, foreign minister says

By Reuters, September 23, 2024,
Reporting by Dubai Newsroom; editing by Alex Richardson, Christina Fincher and Mark Heinrich https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-ready-nuclear-talks-new-york-if-other-parties-are-willing-foreign-minister-2024-09-23/

DUBAI, Sept 23 (Reuters) – Iran is ready to start nuclear negotiations on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York if “other parties are willing”, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Monday in a video published on his Telegram channel.

The U.S., under then-President Donald Trump, withdrew in 2018 from a nuclear accord signed in 2015 by Iran and six world powers under which Tehran curbed its disputed nuclear programme in return for a lifting of international sanctions.

Indirect talks between Washington and Tehran to revive the deal have stalled. Iran is still formally part of the deal but has scaled back commitments to honour it due to U.S. sanctions reimposed on the Islamic Republic.

“I will stay in New York for a few more days than the [Iranian] president and will have more meetings with various foreign ministers. We will focus our efforts on starting a new round of talks regarding the nuclear pact,” Araqchi said.

He added that messages have been exchanged via Switzerland and a “general declaration of readiness” issued, but cautioned that “current international conditions make the resumption of talks more complicated and difficult than before”.

Araqchi said he would not meet with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken: “I do not believe it would be expedient to hold such a dialogue. There were such meetings before but there is currently no suitable ground for that. We are still a long way from holding direct talks.”

Since the renewal of U.S. sanctions during the Trump administration, Tehran has refused to directly negotiate with Washington and worked mainly through European or Arab intermediaries.

Iranian leaders want to see an easing of U.S. sanctions that have significantly harmed its economy. But Iran’s relations with the West have worsened since the Iranian-backed Palestinian Hamas militant group attacked southern Israel on Oct. 7, and as Tehran has increased its support for Russia’s war in Ukraine.

U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration has said the United States is not ready to resume nuclear talks with Iran.

September 25, 2024 Posted by | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

Iran desperately needs a nuclear deal to save its battered economy

The Islamic Republic has few good options – a nuclear accord 2.0 may be its best hope

By Michael Day, iNews 4th Sept 2024

Iran appears increasingly willing to scale back its nuclear weapons programme in return for sanctions relief to rescue its stricken economy. This might explain Tehran’s reluctance to retaliate hard against Israel’s alleged assassination of a senior Hamas figure.

The delay in Iran’s threatened retribution for the provocative killing of Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on 31 July has been explained in part by Tehran’s willingness to allow negotiators to pursue peace talks between Hamas and Israel.

America’s increased naval presence in the region with aircraft carriers and a guided missile-capable submarine might also have made the regime in Tehran think long and hard about how it should respond to Haniyeh’s killing……………………

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, allowed the election of a moderate president, Masoud Pezeshkian, in July, after deciding that a degree of rapprochement and thereby sanctions relief with the West was badly needed to tackled Iran’s dire economic situation and the social unrest that it – along with the regime’s brutality – has created.

………………………now Azizi thinks: “Iran is seriously interested in pursuing agreements with the West that could help it lift sanctions and this is indeed a priority for it. The return of the JCPOA [2015 nuclear deal] triumvirate (Iran’s nuclear negotiators Mohammad Javad Zarif, Abbas Araghchi, Majid Takht-Ravanchi) indeed speaks to that”.

The nuclear deal was concluded with world powers in 2015 under Iran’s former president Hassan Rouhani – an accord ripped up by the Trump administration in 2018.

Underlining the regime’s desire to use a freeze in its nuclear programme as a bargaining chip, Pezeshkian is, according to reports in state media, about to appoint the nuclear negotiations specialist Takht-Ravanchi to a senior role in the foreign affairs department.

The news comes a week after Iran’s supreme leader suggested that his country might resume nuclear negotiations with the US.

…………………………………………………………………………………………….there is of course the seismic matter of the US election result, which is likely to have a huge bearing on America’s willingness to deal with Tehran. Nothing concrete will be agreed on before then. https://inews.co.uk/news/world/iran-nuclear-deal-sanctions-relief-economy-3258961

September 5, 2024 Posted by | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

IAEA chief on reviving Iran nuclear deal, preventing Russia-Ukraine nuclear disaster

ALARABIYA NEWS, 1 Sept 24,

In a special interview on Al Arabiya, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi discussed several pressing global nuclear issues. He highlighted the ongoing concerns related to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, particularly the risks posed to nuclear power plants situated near active combat zones. Grossi emphasized the IAEA’s commitment to ensuring the safety of these facilities, despite the challenges and uncertainties. He stressed the importance of the agency’s impartiality, noting that their assessments are based solely on independently verified information to avoid politicization.

The IAEA chief also addressed the Iranian nuclear program, expressing concerns over the country’s continued accumulation of highly enriched uranium. He revealed that he had received a response from Iran’s new president, signaling a potential for renewed dialogue aimed at ensuring the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear activities. Grossi underscored the need for increased transparency and cooperation from Iran, especially in light of advancements in their nuclear capabilities……………………………………………… https://english.alarabiya.net/webtv/programs/special-interview/2024/09/01/iaea-chief-on-reviving-iran-nuclear-deal-preventing-russia-ukraine-nuclear-disaster—

September 4, 2024 Posted by | Iran, politics international, Ukraine | Leave a comment

Iran urges elimination of atomic weapons, end to nuclear tests

Friday, 30 August 2024,  https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2024/08/30/732332/Iran–elimination-of-atomic-weapons

Iran’s ambassador and permanent representative to the United Nations Office in Geneva has called on the international community to work towards ending nuclear tests and eliminating atomic weapons.

Ali Bahreini made the remarks in an X post on Thursday, on the occasion of the International Day against Nuclear Tests.

“Nuclear testing is a threat to our planet and future generations,” he said.

“On the International Day against Nuclear Tests, let’s pledge to protect our world by advocating for a complete end to nuclear tests and total elimination of NWs,” he added, referring to nuclear weapons.

“Each nuclear explosion is a step backward in the journey towards a world free of nuclear weapons. Today, more than ever, we need a global commitment to the complete elimination of nuclear weapons,” Bahreini wrote in a separate post on X in Persian. 

In 2009, the UN General Assembly declared August 29 the International Day against Nuclear Tests by unanimously adopting Resolution 64/35.

The document calls for increasing awareness and education “about the effects of nuclear weapon test explosions or any other nuclear explosions and the need for their cessation as one of the means of achieving the goal of a nuclear-weapon-free world.” 

The United States is the only country on Earth that has used nuclear weapons in wartime.

On August 6, 1945, the US dropped the world’s first atomic bomb on the Japanese city of Hiroshima, killing thousands instantly and about 140,000 by the end of the year. Three days later, it dropped a second bomb on Nagasaki, killing another 70,000.

September 1, 2024 Posted by | Iran, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Iran’s future FM says nuclear deal broken, favors military-diplomatic path

Niloufar Goudarzi, Iran International, 14 Aug 24

Iran’s foreign minister-designate has dismissed the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal as irreparable, advocating instead for a strategy that blends military force with diplomacy, according to an Iranian MP.

Abbas Araghchi, who has openly aligned himself with IRGC values, firmly rooted in anti-Western and anti-Israel stances, is currently defending his proposed action plan in parliament, where he seeks approval as the nominated minister.

Speaking after Araghchi’s parliamentary session, MP Mohsen Fathi quoted him as stating, “The JCPOA is beyond revival. In the new government, our focus is not on restoring the nuclear deal but on lifting the sanctions. We are dedicated to a strategy integrating diplomatic efforts with military strength.”

It is not clear how Tehran wants to have the sanctions lifted without a nuclear agreement, unless Araghchi was referring to using diplomatic-military pressure on the United States.

In 2015, Iran and global powers signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to limit Iran’s nuclear activities for sanctions relief. In 2018, then-president Donald Trump withdrew, claiming it failed to address Iran’s missile program. Since then, efforts to revive the JCPOA have involved indirect talks, with European diplomats mediating between US and Iranian officials.

Araghchi’s remarks mirrored those of the outgoing Acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri-Kani who asserted in July that the primary objective of the JCPOA was lifting sanctions………………………………https://www.iranintl.com/en/202408142991

August 16, 2024 Posted by | Iran, politics international | Leave a comment

Iran planning to resume testing nuclear bomb detonators

Wednesday, 08/14/2024 Mojtaba Pourmohsen, Journalist at Iran International

Iran is intensifying efforts on its secretive nuclear weapons program, bringing the country closer than ever to developing a nuclear bomb—a threat that has loomed for over two decades, according to exclusive information obtained by Iran International.

According to three independent sources in Iran, who have chosen to remain anonymous due to the sensitive nature of the topic, the Islamic Republic is advancing its secret nuclear weapons program by restructuring the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND), retaining Mohammad Eslami as the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, and resuming tests to produce nuclear bomb detonators.

For years, US intelligence agencies consistently stated in their annual reports that Iran “isn’t currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device”. However, in the Director of National Intelligence’s 2024 report, released in July, that phrase was omitted. Instead, the report stated that Iran has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so.”

The newly obtained information shows the Islamic Republic has intensified its efforts to complete the nuclear weapons production cycle, including high-level uranium enrichment, the production of nuclear detonation devices, and the development of missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
Restructuring SPND.

Less than a month before Ebrahim Raisi’s death, the Iranian Parliament passed a bill to formalize the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND) as an independent entity. Originally established in 2010 as a subsidiary of the Ministry of Defense, SPND was restructured under this new legislation, enacted just a week before Raisi’s passing.
Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a prominent figure in Iran’s military nuclear program, previously led SPND.

Fakhrizadeh was assassinated in November 2020 near Tehran, an act attributed to Mossad. The new law has granted SPND financial independence, exempting it from the oversight of the National Audit Office, essentially allowing it to operate without accountability for its budget.

The law also states that SPND will be governed according to a statute issued by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This restructuring of SPND is significant as it provides the organization with unique autonomy, allowing it to continue the legacy of Fakhrizadeh’s work, particularly in producing nuclear detonation devices

SPND’s role in Iran’s nuclear program……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Shifting to nuclear weapons for deterrence
A Western diplomat told Iran International that Iran’s suspicious nuclear activities have raised concerns among the United States, Israel, and European countries. Following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas’ political bureau in Tehran said the Islamic Republic’s deterrence policy, which relied heavily on proxy forces, has lost its effectiveness, something Khamenei and other government officials are fully aware of.

This reality might have driven the Islamic Republic to consider pursuing another form of deterrence. On the day Pezeshkian presented his ministerial picks to the Parliament, Iranian lawmaker Mohammad-Reza Sabbaghian told the open session, “What logic or law dictates that arrogant powers should have nuclear weapons, but Iran should not?”

He added, “We call on the Supreme National Security Council to review the new circumstances and recommend to the Supreme Leader that, considering dynamic Islamic jurisprudence, the path be cleared for the development of nuclear weapons.”

This could be the final, and perhaps most dangerous, arrow in Khamenei’s quiver. https://www.iranintl.com/en/202408148823

August 15, 2024 Posted by | Iran, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Iran to Israel: Ceasefire in Gaza war, or retaliation for Haniyh murder will proceed

SOTT, Parisa Hafezi and Laila Bassam, Reuters, Tue, 13 Aug 2024 

Only a ceasefire deal in Gaza stemming from hoped-for talks this week would hold Iran back from direct retaliation against Israel for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on its soil, three senior Iranian officials said.

Iran has vowed a severe response to Haniyeh’s killing, which took place as he visited Tehran late last month and which it blamed on Israel. Israel has neither confirmed or denied its involvement. The U.S. Navy has deployed warships and a submarine to the Middle East to bolster Israeli defenses.

One of the sources, a senior Iranian security official, said Iran, along with allies such as Hezbollah, would launch a direct attack if the Gaza talks fail or it perceives Israel is dragging out negotiations. The sources did not say how long Iran would allow for talks to progress before responding.

With an increased risk of a broader Middle East war after the killings of Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, Iran has been involved in intense dialogue with Western countries and the United States in recent days on ways to calibrate retaliation, said the sources, who all spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.

In comments published on Tuesday, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey confirmed Washington was asking allies to help convince Iran to de-escalate tensions. Three regional government sources described conversations with Tehran to avoid escalation ahead of the Gaza ceasefire talks, due to begin on Thursday in either Egypt or Qatar.

“We hope our response will be timed and executed in a way that does not harm a potential ceasefire,” Iran’s mission to the U.N. said on Friday in a statement. Iran’s foreign ministry on Tuesday said calls to exercise restraint “contradict principles of international law.”

Iran’s foreign ministry and its Revolutionary Guards Corps did not immediately respond to questions for this story. The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office and the U.S. State Department did not respond to questions.

“Something could happen as soon as this week by Iran and its proxies… That is a U.S. assessment as well as an Israel assessment,” White House spokesperson John Kirby told reporters on Monday.

“If something does happen this week, the timing of it could certainly well have an impact on these talks we want to do on Thursday,” he added.

At the weekend, Hamas cast doubt on whether talks would go ahead. Israel and Hamas have held several rounds of talks in recent months without agreeing a final ceasefire.

In Israel, many observers believe a response is imminent after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Iran would “harshly punish” Israel for the strike in Tehran……………………………………….. more https://www.sott.net/article/493939-Iran-to-Israel-Ceasefire-in-Gaza-war-or-retaliation-for-Haniyh-murder-will-proceed

August 15, 2024 Posted by | Iran, Israel, politics international | Leave a comment

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