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400,000 Ukrainians Killed In Action Explains A Whole Lot

U.S. intelligence contacts have expressed shock as to just how far from reality the narrative being pushed by the Biden administration is from what’s happening in Ukraine and its real war losses.

BY TYLER DURDEN, FRIDAY, DEC 15, 2023 

Authored by Mike Fredenburg via The Epoch Times,

How many casualties has Ukraine suffered?

How many causalities has Russia suffered?

Answering these questions is critical to determining the best and most moral path forward for Ukraine and the United States.

Estimates of Ukrainians killed in action (KIA) range from a low of just over 30,000 to a high of over 400,000.

Obviously, these two estimates can’t be reconciled. And it really, really matters to the people of Ukraine which one is closer to the truth. While 30,000 deaths is tragic, anything approaching 400,000 KIA and the accompanying hundreds of thousands of causalities is a humanitarian catastrophe that makes talks of continuing offensive operations next year, or even believing in a stalemate, wishful thinking that will result in even more fruitless Ukrainian deaths.

Unsurprisingly, since the war began, the United States and its allies have unswervingly pushed the narrative that Russia is incurring far more casualties than Ukraine. This casualty narrative was critical to maintaining any plausibility that Ukraine could defeat a country that has four to five times more men of military age and that was recently rated as having the world’s most powerful military. Hence, given the need to maintain the plausibility of a Ukrainian victory, it isn’t surprising that NATO intelligence asserted that the battle of Bakhmut saw Russia losing at least five soldiers KIA for every one of Ukraine’s.

However, since the fall of Bakhmut to Russia, the failure of the much-hyped Ukrainian counteroffensive, and signs that Ukraine’s military is nearing collapse, we’re no longer hearing about five-to-one casualty rates. Still, the most recent estimates from United States and British officials claim that Russia has suffered 120,000 KIA while Ukraine has suffered “only” 70,000 KIA (more than the United States suffered in over 10 years of the Vietnam War).

But not everyone agrees with U.S./British casualty estimates for an army that started the war by mobilizing early 1 million men in arms and, over the course of the war, mobilized another estimated 1 million. Among the growing number of those who don’t agree is the former director of the Joint Operations Center at Supreme Headquarters Europe and one of the key leaders in achieving the legendary victory in the mass tank battle of 73 Easting, retired U.S. Army Col. Douglas Macgregor.

In a recent interview with myself, Col. Macgregor agreed that while estimates putting Russian KIA at as high as 50,000 to 60,000 are defensible, most estimates for Ukrainian KIAs are not.

In what many will undoubtedly find shocking given the countless stories disparaging Russia’s military skills and capabilities while uncritically fawning over Ukraine’s military prowess, Col. Macgregor puts Ukrainian KIA at over 400,000 out of the 2 million Ukraine has mobilized.

Col. Macgregor arrived at this shocking number using a wide variety of sources, including contacts within U.S. intelligence and contacts on the ground in Ukraine and Poland who have intimate knowledge of what’s really happening in Ukraine.

In particular, he noted that his U.S. intelligence contacts have expressed shock as to just how far from reality the narrative being pushed by the Biden administration is from what’s happening in Ukraine and its real war losses.

Likewise, Col. Macgregor’s Ukraine contacts relayed to him accounts of thousands of wounded Ukrainians being left to die on the battlefield, growing numbers of Ukrainian commanders and troops refusing orders to conduct suicide attacks against heavily fortified Russian positions, Ukrainian soldiers surrendering en masse to Russia, hospitals overflowing with Ukrainian wounded, and many other accounts that testify to horrendous casualty rates that contradict the narrative pushed by Western media.

Additionally, Col. Macgregor’s contacts have analyzed satellite imagery showing a massive expansion of Ukrainian cemeteries and countless tens of thousands of fresh graves. Other open-source intelligence analysis has also documented in detail Ukraine’s massive expansion of cemeteries that will soon allow Ukraine to reportedly bury 1.5 million more people. And a Russian analyst using death notices and other open-source intelligence has come up with Ukrainian KIA estimates of over 300,000.

But for Col. Macgregor, it’s the totality of the reports he has seen, his understanding of historical casualty rates, his personal military experience, and information from his sources that has brought him to the conclusion that Ukraine’s KIA is a magnitude greater than what’s commonly being reported.

These numbers, coupled with the fact the war could have been avoided had President Volodymyr Zelenskyy been knowledgeable and wise enough to understand that U.S./NATO promises of victory were completely unrealistic and couldn’t be relied upon, have led Col. Macgregor, who has fond memories of growing up in a Ukrainian immigrant neighborhood, to believe that the war is an absolute disaster for Ukraine that could have and should have been avoided.

“In humanitarian terms, this tragedy has resulted in the Ukrainian nation being destroyed in a war that never needed to be fought,” Col. Macgregor said…………………………………………………………………………………………………

Given the strong evidence that Ukraine is suffering country-destroying casualties, talk of a stalemate, much less of successful offensive territory-gaining operations, is more about face-saving than any realistic chance of Ukraine avoiding losing.

Hence, the only moral path forward for the United States is to tell President Zelenskyy it’s well past the time to sue for peace and that he must accept neutrality and the loss of the regions that seceded from Ukraine in 2014.

This is a bitter pill to swallow for Ukrainian nationalists and those in the United States who hoped Ukraine would do far more damage to Russia, but the alternative is accelerating Ukraine’s diminishing chances of remaining a viable nation-state, a whole lot more fruitless Ukrainian deaths, and peace terms substantially worse than those that can be negotiated today.  https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/400000-ukrainians-killed-action-explains-whole-lot

December 17, 2023 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Ukraine, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Why Zelensky’s ‘Fantasy’ of Building Military-Industrial Hub in Ukraine is Doomed

 Sputnik,  12.12.2023

While in Washington DC, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with executives of US defense companies and outlined his plan to create an industrial defense hub in Ukraine. Will the plan fly?

Volodymyr Zelensky met top executives of BAE Systems, Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics, AeroVironment, and other companies of the US military-industrial complex at Ukraine House on his on-going visit to the US.

He told them that Ukraine is ready to jointly produce ammunition and weapons on its soil but needed their support. “We are ready to act quickly, and we have already started to do so, since we have no other way to change the system as we are at war,” the Ukrainian president said, offering US companies a stake in Ukrainian defense firms.

However, it’s unlikely that US defense contractors will rush to jump at the opportunity, said retired Colonel Anatoliy Matviychuk, a Russian military expert, who has experience in combat operations in Afghanistan and Syria.

“I think that everything that Zelensky told them was his fantasies and his attempt to come up with something,” Matviychuk told Sputnik. “Who in their right mind would now invest money in a country that is practically non-existent? It’s gone. It lives as a subsidy fund of the budget of the United States of America.”

“Can Ukraine produce anything? I doubt it very much, because the production facilities are completely in tatters. I suppose there may be something there in Western Ukraine, but Western Ukraine has always been subsidized, there has never been heavy industry there. There are no industrial areas [in Western Ukraine], like there once were in Donetsk, Donbass, or like Yuzhmash [in Dnepropetrovsk]. I think Zelensky is simply detached from reality,” the expert continued.

It’s not the first time that Zelensky has lauded Ukraine’s non-existent industrial capacity: in August, the Ukrainian president announced that Kiev had increased its weapons and ammunition production. Commenting on the statement, military expert Alexei Leonkov explained to Sputnik that Ukraine’s production sites, which are largely focused on assembling drones, are routinely detected and destroyed by the Russian military. Leonkov added that most of Ukraine’s production prowess was destroyed soon after the collapse of the USSR due to the endemic corruption and power struggle in the Eastern European nations.

To complicate matters further, lots of Ukrainian engineers and rocket scientists fled the country after the beginning of the Russian special military operation in February 2022, noted Matviychuk, while many others have been mobilized and thrown into battle………………………………………………….

US and Poland Don’t Need Industrial Hub in Ukraine

The development of Ukraine’s industrial sector fits into a new strategy considered by American and Ukrainian officials. American decision-makers want Kiev to go on the defensive, dig in and replenish its weapon storages.

According to Matviychuk, Zelensky’s attempts to go in line with the proposed strategy stem from his fear to lose both the Ukrainian presidency and the West’s support………………………………………………. https://sputnikglobe.com/20231212/why-zelenskys-fantasy-of-building-military-industrial-hub-in-ukraine-is-doomed-1115539804.html

December 16, 2023 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Ukraine, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Ukraine asking US for military aid that doesn’t exist – New York Times

 https://www.rt.com/russia/588944-ukraine-us-military-aide/ 13 Dec 23

Kiev has “unrealistic expectations” about what Washington can provide, American officials told the outlet

Ukrainian commanders and civilian officials overestimate the ability of the US to supply the country with weapons and ammo amid the conflict with Russia and are asking for things that simply don’t exist, American officials have told the New York Times.

The administration of US President Joe Biden has provided Kiev with $111 billion in military and economic assistance since Moscow launched its military operation in Ukraine in February 2022. However, the White House recently warned that funds for the government of Vladimir Zelensky had almost run out, with hardline Republican lawmakers blocking the approval of another $106 billion ‘national security package’ for Ukraine and Israel.

Many in Kiev still “do not realize how precarious continued US funding for the war is,” the NYT said in an article on Monday. The unnamed US officials, who talked to the paper, insisted that “Ukraine will have to fight on a tighter budget.”

Some Ukrainian decision-makers have “unrealistic expectations about what the US will supply,” the sources said. “They are asking for millions of rounds of artillery, for example, from Western stockpiles that do not exist.”

After the failure of Kiev’s counteroffensive, the US and Ukraine are currently trying to work out “a new strategy,” the implementation of which is expected to begin in early 2024 in order to “revive Kiev’s fortunes,” the officials said.

According to the report, they are unable to find common ground so far. Washington wants Kiev to just focus on holding onto the territory it still controls, while building up forces and supplies over the course of the next year.

However, the Ukrainian military appears eager to continue to attack the Russian army on the ground or through airstrikes in order to “score symbolic victories” that they believe would attract more attention to the conflict around the globe, the sources explained.

“The stakes are huge” because “without both a new strategy and additional funding … Ukraine could lose the war,” the officials warned.

Amid discussions on the new strategy, the Pentagon has decided that Lieutenant General Antonio A. Aguto Jr, who oversees aid to Ukraine from a base in Germany, is going to spend lengthy periods of time on the ground in Kiev, they added.

Moscow has repeatedly warned that deliveries of weapons to Ukraine by the West will only prolong the fighting and increase the risk of a direct military confrontation between Russia and NATO. Russian officials have also argued that the provision of arms, intelligence-sharing, and training Ukrainian troops means that the US and its allies have already become de facto parties to the conflict.

Speaking about the dependence of Kiev on Western aid, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Sunday that Ukrainian troops were “running out of [everything]” because “they don’t have their own base.”

“When you don’t have your own base, don’t have your own ideology, don’t have your own industry, don’t have your own money, don’t have anything of your own, then there is no future,” Putin stated.

December 14, 2023 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Ukraine, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Ukraine’s 200 Fighter Jet Demand Could Lead To Nuclear Catastrophe.

The current state of Ukraine is in total ruins. Beautiful cities have been reduced to rubble. What an exorbitant cost to pay for NATO membership!

Russia Could End The War By Nuking Kyiv

Eurasian Times, OPED By Gp Cpt TP Srivastava 12 Dec 23

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is in its 22^nd month. On February 24, 2024, the unwanted and highly undesirable Russia-Ukraine war will be two years old. Putin’s declaration of suspending START signed in 2010 (due to expire in 2026) by Obama and Medvedev heightens the risk of a nuclear war.

The most pertinent question is, ‘Whose war is it anyway’? Few military strategists believe that there is no specific answer. Few believe that it is due to Russia’s hostile attitude towards Ukraine.

That is surprising because the simple answer to this supposedly complex question is the US’s desire to expand NATO eastward. Finally, the USA and its NATO cronies found a puppet in the form of Ukrainian president Vladimir Zelensky, who was/is willing to dance to their tune even though, in the process, he has single-handedly destroyed a beautiful nation.

He has brought the world to the brink of a nuclear war. The President of Belarus has been categorical in his assertion that the USA and other NATO members forced this war on Russia (during an interview with BBC).

The near destruction of a nation’s infrastructure and death of hundreds of thousands of soldiers/civilians (exact figures will/may be known after the war ends, if and when it does) has achieved nothing. What was the crying need for the USA to push for Ukraine to join NATO?

Until this insane desire of the USA altered the Russia-Ukraine relations, things between the two nations were stable. Instead of treading into the past regarding the expansion of NATO eastwards, the most recent event of German reunification merits a mention.

After Russia was convinced of the need for German reunification, the then Secretary of State of the USA, James Baker, stated, “NATO would not expand an inch eastward” or words to that effect.

Non-Expansion Of NATO Eastward

Russia reminded NATO and the USA about the verbal commitment of the USA regarding ‘no eastward expansion of NATO’ on quite a few occasions. The annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation in 2014 merely caused a minor whimper from G-7 nations when they decided to boycott the summit to be held at Sochi.

On February 14, 2022, the Russian Foreign Minister clearly and unambiguously stated that the continued efforts of the USA to bring in Ukraine as a NATO member will have serious repercussions. Russia demanded a legal ban on Ukraine joining NATO based on a commitment made by the USA as one of the conditions for German reunification. But Russian demand was rejected, both by NATO and Ukraine.

Russia was forced into a corner, which led to Russia openly justifying the breach of the Budapest Memorandum. As if Ukraine’s impending entry into the NATO fold was not enough for Russia to retaliate, Sweden and Finland joined the queue.

It would be pertinent to mention that Finland and Sweden decided to remain neutral during the height of the Cold War. But for the objection raised by Turkey and Hungary, Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO membership was delayed as the 32^nd and 33^rd members of NATO. Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel had called NATO a ‘BRAIN DEAD’ alliance.

Despite repeated statements by Russia, Ukraine declined to join Russia for talks; the last offer made was on February 19, 2022. Russia attacked (read Special Military Operations Commenced) on February 24, 2022. The USA and NATO countries did not expect Russia to launch the offensive. But Putin is famous for doing the unexpected, which is what he did.

Russia Vs. Ukraine Or Russia Vs. NATO

Except for the first six weeks of the war, when it could be called the Russia-Ukraine war, the nature of the war started altering rapidly to the Russia–NATO war. Military strategists of the world opine that Ukraine has fought Russia on equal terms. Nothing could be further from the truth. Russia has given a befitting reply to NATO and the USA combined.

The current state of Ukraine is in total ruins. Beautiful cities have been reduced to rubble. What an exorbitant cost to pay for NATO membership! Whatever chances there were for Ukraine to join NATO have evaporated in thin air. In the prevailing scenario, Russia will adopt all possible measures, including nuclear options, to ensure that Ukraine is not admitted to NATO.

USA & NATO Want War To End?

Instead of addressing the issue of whether Ukraine and Russia want to end the war, the above question is more pertinent. US hypocrisy is evident. The USA has already given more than US$30 billion in military aid and nearly US$40 billion in humanitarian assistance.

However, the US Secretary of State announced a grant of an ‘astronomical’ sum of US$100 million to help Turkey recover from one of the most disastrous natural calamities the world has witnessed.

POTUS decided to travel to Kyiv on February 19, 2023, albeit by a ten-hour-long train journey. It is only the third time that POTUS has visited a war zone but with a difference. Obama visited Afghanistan, and Bush went to Iraq. But their trips were done secretly. Biden visited Kyiv after giving prior information to Russia lest an errant SSM find its way close to where Biden was in Kyiv.

NATO members faithfully follow their ‘political master,’ the USA. UK, Germany, France, and Poland have offered Ukraine military aid. Are their actions meant to end the unwanted war?

This is even though Germany’s bill for energy for the current fiscal would/might exceed by nearly US$160 billion. Germany thrived and prospered due to Russian gas. The ‘international policeman’ probably sabotaged NORD STREAM 1 and 2, who did not hesitate to carry out the most disastrous ecological catastrophe in recent times.

A mature and responsible head of state should have announced from the war zone that the war must end to avoid further disaster and eliminate any chances of a nuclear war. Instead, Biden said that the USA stands with Ukraine………………………………………………………………………………………………..

Imminent Nuclear War?

The United Nations Secretary-General had this to say in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war: “Geopolitical crises with grave nuclear undertones are spreading fast from the Middle East to the Korean Peninsula to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”

He made this statement in Hiroshima. Putin’s doctrine enunciates that Russia reserves the right to exercise nuclear options even against a formidable conventional weapon attack, which might threaten Russia’s territorial integrity.

Failure Of Kyiv Offensive

Pseudo-military strategists will take longer to declare that the Kyiv offensive has failed. Zelensky’s militarily insane option is not only disastrous for Ukraine but also for European nations adjoining Russia. Finland must regret its decision to join NATO and convert an otherwise dormant and safe border with Russia into a highly active one.

In all likelihood, whether Russia is close to victory or Ukraine is deliberating on a ‘smoking’ peace pipe will be known shortly. Ukraine cannot sustain the war effort without active support from USA and EU nations, which appears to be dwindling.

Future

Russia has been able to achieve its military aim of destroying Ukrainian infrastructure, which will take decades to rebuild at a cost of hundreds of billions of dollars. Has Ukraine gained anything except the destruction of its cities and making lakhs homeless? Exact casualty figures may never be known. That NATO is ‘tired’ of this war is evident from recent statements of the German Chancellor and French President.

‘White Man’s War’ will end, if it ends, without any firm conclusion. Impending NATO membership in Ukraine might remain an unfulfilled dream.

With the US presidential elections due in November 2024 and Taiwan in January 2024, the US administration may not have enough time for ‘TV Actor’ Zelensky. The unforeseen war between HAMAS and Israel has resulted in the shift of US focus, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict has become just another skirmish.

Republicans have vehemently opposed Biden’s proposal for aid to Ukraine. If they successfully block further assistance to Ukraine, Zelensky might realize the reality and be ‘forced’ to seek peace with Russia. NATO membership is no guarantee for security. In addition, differences are emerging between Zelensky and his top military advisors.

Therefore, sustaining the war through the winters might be a difficult option. Putin’s recent visits to Saudi Arabia and UAE also sent a strong signal to the West, highlighting that Russia is not as isolated as was predicted by the West.

The announcement of Vladimir Putin seeking yet another tenure as President sends a clear, crisp, and candid message to the West: stop the eastward expansion of NATO, or else — Zelensky’s military hierarchy may not support his continued effort to make Ukraine a NATO member and in the process destroy Ukraine. Conditions are ideal for Zelensky’s removal and possible military takeover in Ukraine.

• Gp Cpt TP Srivastava (Retd) is an ex-NDA who flew MiG-21 and 29. He is a qualified flying instructor. He commanded the MiG-21 squadron. He is a directing staff at DSSC Wellington and chief instructor at the College of Air Warfare. VIEWS PERSONAL OF THE AUTHOR  https://www.eurasiantimes.com/ukraines-nato-dream-shattered-if-war-with-russia/

December 13, 2023 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Ukraine, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Ukraine builds reverse wall in losing war against Russia

Walt Zlotow, West Suburban Peace Coalition, Glen Ellyn IL    11 Dec 23

Since the Russian invasion nearly 2 years ago, Ukraine has beefed up its border defenses, even building a wall in some areas. But it’s not to keep the Russkies out. It’s to keep thousands of draft dodging Ukrainian men aged 18 to 60 safely inside Ukraine so they can be flung into the slaughterhouse near the Donbas.

Besides 50 ways to leave you lover, there’s 50 ways to leave Ukraine. All the recruitment center heads have been fired for taking bribes by draft dodgers.  Truckers are selling fake driver jobs to men who then exit the trucks near or over the border. Many simply flee on foot thru mountainous areas. Some dress as women, priests or doctors. Daring ones squeeze themselves into secret vehicle compartments to be driven over the border by compatriots. 

Why so many doing this? They know the war a lost cause that should never have occurred. They understand it was totally avoidable had President Zelensky and his predecessors chosen not to join NATO and destroy the Russian culture of Ukrainians living in Donbas. Besides Zelensky, they blame US President Biden for sabotaging the peace deal Zelensky and Putin were ready to sign in the war’s first month.  

During the Vietnam War, US draft dodgers were pretty much limited to Canada for escape from a senseless war. Their Ukrainian counterparts have at least 3: Poland, Moldova and Romania.  

This week President Zelensky comes to Washington to beg for passage of the $67 billion in weapons Biden wants in his $111 billion weapons boondoggle for Israel and Taiwan besides Ukraine. Biden could give Zelensky $1 trillion in weapons and it would not snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. What Zelensky needs in more cannon fodder. If he asks for one American to fight in what is truly a US proxy war against Russia shedding only Ukrainian blood, he’ll be whisked back to Kyiv faster than you can say…’This war is OVAAAH.’  

December 12, 2023 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Ukraine, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Nuclear plants and the war in Ukraine

A nightmare scenario

,ADI ROCHE,  https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/letters/2023/12/11/nuclear-plants-and-the-war-in-ukraine/

This month, two nuclear power plants in Ukraine faced the frightening consequences of war. As the illegally occupied Zaporizhiza nuclear power plant lost power for the eighth time, the Khmelnytskyi nuclear power plant in western Ukraine faced a near-miss as Russian forces bombarded the surrounding areas with deadly missiles.

This is part of a worrying trend emanating from this war, where nuclear facilities have been brought into the increasingly volatile and unpredictable combat zones. This signifies to the world that the nature of modern warfare has changed forever, and brings with it a sense of foreboding for wars of the future.

Nuclear nightmares have no end. We cannot stress enough the risk that Zaporizhzhia and now Khmelnytskyi pose. Any use of nuclear weapons, or targeting of power plants, needs to be stopped immediately.

Since the outbreak of the war, we have been urging that all nuclear facilities be deemed a “no war zone”. We must invoke the Hague Convention which defines any attack on a nuclear facility to be a war crime.

Let us call for the focus to shift to one of de-escalation, dialogue and diplomacy. The immediate dispatch of a UN Observer Core, to defuse and monitor this perilous situation, is a vital first step. – Yours, etc,

December 12, 2023 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Ukraine, weapons and war | Leave a comment

‘Hopium and Defense’ All Ukraine Has to Sustain Itself as NATO Weapons Dry Up

04.12.2023 Sputnik International

With its supply of Western weapons dwindling and little sign of change from the NATO powers, Ukraine will be incapable of launching another counteroffensive like last summer, an analyst told Sputnik. However, barring a mutiny or political crisis, a collapse of the Ukrainian war effort isn’t necessarily imminent.

White House Office of Management and Budget Director Shalanda Young told federal lawmakers on Monday that the US was “out of money to support Ukraine in this fight.”

According to Pentagon statistics, the US has sent Ukraine some $44 billion in military aid since February 2022, as well as $76 billion in other types of support, including budget financing and humanitarian aid. US President Joe Biden has asked for billions more to be approved, but the Republican majority in the House, now led by Ukraine skeptic House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), has remained cool to the idea without improvements in oversight.

The news also comes as the Pentagon failed its audit for the sixth year in a row.

Moscow-based international relations security analyst Mark Sleboda told Radio Sputnik’s The Final Countdown on Monday that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was correct in a way: Ukraine is indeed entering a new phase of the conflict – a defensive phase, as it waits and hopes that time will bring favorable changes to the situation.

“But it is definitely having an effect on the battlefield in Ukraine. There was already a trend because of the US and collectively NATO’s inability to ramp up their own industrial production to provide their Kiev Regime proxy with enough of the war basics like artillery shells, air defense missiles, and many other things that it needed. And now, that is coupled with the fact that Kiev is competing with Israel for many of the same things, which have been on the demand list … for Israel for what it needs for its conflict. And Zelensky is finding himself second-fiddle, vying not only for attention and supplies and funding” from the US and European Union, which he said had hit a “speed bump” in attempting to support both Kiev and Jerusalem at once…………………..

Over the weekend, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the alliance “should also be prepared for bad news” from Ukraine, noting that wars “develop in phases” and that the West should continue to support Kiev “in both good and bad times.”

“For Zelensky, this is really a case of ‘the emperor has no clothes,’” Sleboda said, noting that other figures had turned against him, too, including anti-Russian journalist Simon Shuster, who quoted Ukrainian officials calling Zelensky “delusional” and claiming he won’t hear talk of Ukraine losing the conflict, and Kiev Major Vitaly Klitschko had called Zelensky “authoritarian.”

“I guess the Western propaganda is failing, and when the mainstream media is already out in front of him, even Jens Stoltenberg has to turn it around and admit certain things, although it must be said that these admissions are not coming in front of the media, they’re coming behind it, he simply no longer has any propaganda spin for maneuver.”

Sleboda said he agreed with Zelensky that Ukraine had entered a new phase of the conflict.

“Their offensive days are over, there is no large new offensive package from the West anywhere within sight, there’s not even enough maintenance aid to continue basic supplies of anything at this point. So the next year is solidly about desperate defense, building defensive lines, and a much-talked-about new total mobilization, meaning mass, forced conscription, that could possibly include 17- to 70-year-olds now and possibly women being conscripted for combat roles. And, evidently, it is going to be privatized, the last months of conscription having failed miserably, they are now evidently going to turn to private companies, which literally means Westerners coming in and help press-gang Ukrainians off the streets and putting them in the trenches.”

However, he cautioned that modern battlefield technology makes defense much less costly than offense, so “it does not necessarily mean a collapse of the Kiev Regime military,” adding that the bigger danger to the government was a mutiny or a political crisis.  https://sputnikglobe.com/20231204/hopium-and-defense-all-ukraine-has-to-sustain-itself-as-nato-weapons-dry-up-1115381340.html

December 10, 2023 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Ukraine, weapons and war | Leave a comment

High risk’ of defeat – Zelensky’s top aide

 https://www.rt.com/russia/588597-ukraine-at-risk-of-losing/ 6 Dec 23

Andrey Yermak has called for more funds for Kiev as Congress remains at loggerheads

President Vladimir Zelensky’s chief of staff has admitted that there is a “big risk” that Ukraine will lose its conflict with Russia unless the US Congress approves more funding to support Kiev. Andrey Yermak was among a number of Ukrainian officials who “swarmed Washington” ahead of a Senate vote on a White House request for over $100 billion in aid for Kiev, Israel and Taiwan, according to the New York Times.

Republican lawmakers are adamant that they will not approve the spending, unless the Democrats compromise on the issue of southern border security. President Joe Biden called their resistance “crazy” and “totally wrong.”

Yermak made the case for more funding during an appearance at the US Institute of Peace, a Washington-based government-funded think tank. He claimed that his country had inflicted casualties on Russian forces at a ratio of 1:10, and was capable of defeating it on the battlefield in the long run. However, he admitted that even a delay in the provision of American aid could pose a challenge for Kiev. Such an outcome would “give the big risk that we can be in [the] same position [where] we are located now,” he said, speaking in English, presumably meaning a lack of progress in retaking land from Russia. “Of course, it make with very high possibility impossible to continue liberate and give the big risk to lose this war,” Yermak added.

Zelensky’s chief-of-staff was ostensibly promoting the so-called “peace formula” that was first floated by the Ukrainian president last year. It would involve full control over pre-2014 territories for Kiev, while Russia would pay war reparations and face a tribunal. Moscow has dismissed these demands as detached from reality.

Yermak claimed that helping Ukraine to beat Russia was of strategic importance to the US and its allies. Zelensky himself was scheduled to make a virtual appearance at a closed Senate hearing, during which senior White House officials gave lawmakers a briefing on the importance of appropriations. He canceled at the last moment.

The Republican-controlled House has previously declined to include Ukraine aid in stopgap spending bills on two previous occasions, which kept the US government from shutting down this year.

Speaker Mike Johnson has demanded a “full accounting of how prior US military and humanitarian aid” to Ukraine was spent and a plan for “an accelerated path to victory” from the White House. Lawmakers opposed to bankrolling Ukraine have cited concerns over corruption in Kiev and the cost to American taxpayers as key objections.

December 10, 2023 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Ukraine, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Washington Post whitewashes the Ukraine debacle: ‘Miscalculations, divisions marked offensive planning by U.S., Ukraine’

U.S. intelligence officials, skeptical of the Pentagon’s enthusiasm, assessed the likelihood of success at no better than 50-50

Comment: Once more for those in the back:

• People Power! 95.7% of Crimeans vote to join Russia in preliminary results
• 95% of Crimea has no regrets reuniting with Russia – poll

 In all, Ukraine has retaken only about 200 square miles of territory, at a cost of thousands of dead and wounded and billions in Western military aid in 2023 alone.

SOTT, Washington Post, Mon, 04 Dec 2023 

Comment: The WaPo has put an enormous amount of resources into lipsticking this pig (2 parts!) and absolving the U.S., as best it could, of any blame. “It was all Ukraine’s fault!”

A slog to be sure, but if you want to see a shining example of high-end weasel masquerading as historical record, go for it. If that thought is too exhausting, here’s a tl:dr of Part 1, courtesy of Moon of Alabama:

Key elements that shaped the counteroffensive and the initial outcome include:

• Ukrainian, U.S. and British military officers held eight major tabletop war games to build a campaign plan. But Washington miscalculated the extent to which Ukraine’s forces could be transformed into a Western-style fighting force in a short period — especially without giving Kyiv air power integral to modern militaries.
• U.S. and Ukrainian officials sharply disagreed at times over strategy, tactics and timing. The Pentagon wanted the assault to begin in mid-April to prevent Russia from continuing to strengthen its lines. The Ukrainians hesitated, insisting they weren’t ready without additional weapons and training.
• U.S. military officials were confident that a mechanized frontal attack on Russian lines was feasible with the troops and weapons that Ukraine had. The simulations concluded that Kyiv’s forces, in the best case, could reach the Sea of Azov and cut off Russian troops in the south in 60 to 90 days.
• The United States advocated a focused assault along that southern axis, but Ukraine’s leadership believed its forces had to attack at three distinct points along the 600-mile front, southward toward both Melitopol and Berdyansk on the Sea of Azov and east toward the embattled city of Bakhmut.
• The U.S. intelligence community had a more downbeat view than the U.S. military, assessing that the offensive had only a 50-50 chance of success given the stout, multilayered defenses Russia had built up over the winter and spring.
• Many in Ukraine and the West underestimated Russia’s ability to rebound from battlefield disasters and exploit its perennial strengths: manpower, mines and a willingness to sacrifice lives on a scale that few other countries can countenance.
• As the expected launch of the offensive approached, Ukrainian military officials feared they would suffer catastrophic losses — while American officials believed the toll would ultimately be higher without a decisive assault.

His summary of Part 2 is further below.

On June 15, in a conference room at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, flanked by top U.S. commanders, sat around a table with his Ukrainian counterpart, who was joined by aides from Kyiv. The room was heavy with an air of frustration.

Austin, in his deliberate baritone, asked Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov about Ukraine’s decision-making in the opening days of its long-awaited counteroffensive, pressing him on why his forces weren’t using Western-supplied mine-clearing equipment to enable a larger, mechanized assault, or using smoke to conceal their advances. Despite Russia’s thick defensive lines, Austin said, the Kremlin’s troops weren’t invincible. Reznikov, a bald, bespectacled lawyer, said Ukraine’s military commanders were the ones making those decisions. But he noted that Ukraine’s armored vehicles were being destroyed by Russian helicopters, drones and artillery with every attempt to advance. Without air support, he said, the only option was to use artillery to shell Russian lines, dismount from the targeted vehicles and proceed on foot.

“We can’t maneuver because of the land-mine density and tank ambushes,” Reznikov said, according to an official who was present.

2023.The meeting in Brussels, less than two weeks into the campaign, illustrates how a counteroffensive born in optimism has failed to deliver its expected punch, generating friction and second-guessing between Washington and Kyiv and raising deeper questions about Ukraine’s ability to retake decisive amounts of territory.

As winter approaches, and the front lines freeze into place, Ukraine’s most senior military officials acknowledge that the war has reached a stalemate.

This examination of the lead-up to Ukraine’s counteroffensive is based on interviews with more than 30 senior officials from Ukraine, the United States and European nations. It provides new insights and previously unreported details about America’s deep involvement in the military planning behind the counteroffensive and the factors that contributed to its disappointments. The second part of this two-part account examines how the battle unfolded on the ground over the summer and fall, and the widening fissures between Washington and Kyiv. Some of the officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive deliberations.

Key elements that shaped the counteroffensive and the initial outcome include:

● Ukrainian, U.S. and British military officers held eight major tabletop war games to build a campaign plan. But Washington miscalculated the extent to which Ukraine’s forces could be transformed into a Western-style fighting force in a short period — especially without giving Kyiv air power integral to modern militaries.

● U.S. and Ukrainian officials sharply disagreed at times over strategy, tactics and timing. The Pentagon wanted the assault to begin in mid-April to prevent Russia from continuing to strengthen its lines. The Ukrainians hesitated, insisting they weren’t ready without additional weapons and training.

● U.S. military officials were confident that a mechanized frontal attack on Russian lines was feasible with the troops and weapons that Ukraine had. The simulations concluded that Kyiv’s forces, in the best case, could reach the Sea of Azov and cut off Russian troops in the south in 60 to 90 days.

● The United States advocated a focused assault along that southern axis, but Ukraine’s leadership believed its forces had to attack at three distinct points along the 600-mile front, southward toward both Melitopol and Berdyansk on the Sea of Azov and east toward the embattled city of Bakhmut.

● The U.S. intelligence community had a more downbeat view than the U.S. military, assessing that the offensive had only a 50-50 chance of success given the stout, multilayered defenses Russia had built up over the winter and spring.

● Many in Ukraine and the West underestimated Russia’s ability to rebound from battlefield disasters and exploit its perennial strengths: manpower, mines and a willingness to sacrifice lives on a scale that few other countries can countenance.

● As the expected launch of the offensive approached, Ukrainian military officials feared they would suffer catastrophic losses — while American officials believed the toll would ultimately be higher without a decisive assault…………………………………………………………………………………………

…………………………………………………. Can Ukraine win?

With the group agreeing that the United States and allies could provide what they believed were the supplies and training Ukraine needed, Sullivan faced the second part of the equation: Could Ukraine do it?

Zelensky, on the war’s first anniversary in February, had boasted that 2023 would be a “year of victory.”His intelligence chief had decreed that Ukrainians would soon be vacationing in Crimea, the peninsula that Russia had illegally annexed in 2014. But some in the U.S. government were less than confident.

U.S. intelligence officials, skeptical of the Pentagon’s enthusiasm, assessed the likelihood of success at no better than 50-50. The estimate frustrated their Defense Department counterparts…………

Two weeks after Sullivan and others briefed the president, a top-secret, updated intelligence report assessed that the challenges of massing troops, ammunition and equipment meant that Ukraine would probably fall “well short” of its counteroffensive goals……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

………………………………………………………………………………………………….. More troops, more weapons

Biden finally yielded in May and granted the required permission for European nations to donate their U.S.-made F-16s to Ukraine. But pilot training and delivery of the jets would take a year or more, far too long to make a difference in the coming fight.

Comment: The potential pilots had to be taught English before they could even begin any flight training . . . . .

Kyiv hesitates

………………………………………………………………………… Promised equipment was delivered late or arrived unfit for combat, the Ukrainians said. “A lot of weapons that are coming in now, they were relevant last year,” the senior Ukrainian military official said, not for the high-tech battles ahead. Crucially, he said, they had received only 15 percent of items — like the Mine Clearing Line Charge launchers (MCLCs) — needed to execute their plan to remotely cut passages through the minefields.

And yet, the senior Ukrainian military official recalled, the Americans were nagging about a delayed start and still complaining about how many troops Ukraine was devoting to Bakhmut……………………………………………………………………………………..

The counteroffensive finally lurched into motion in early June. Some Ukrainian units quickly notched small gains, recapturing Zaporizhzhia-region villages south of Velyka Novosilka, 80 miles from the Azov coast. But elsewhere, not even Western arms and training could fully shield Ukrainian forces from the punishing Russian firepower.

Part 2: In Ukraine, a war of incremental gains as counteroffensive stalls…………………………………….

……………………………………………… This account of how the counteroffensive unfolded is the second in a two-part series and illuminates the brutal and often futile attempts to breach Russian lines, as well as the widening rift between Ukrainian and U.S. commanders over tactics and strategy. The first article examined the Ukrainian and U.S. planning that went into the operation.

This second part is based on interviews with more than 30 senior Ukrainian and U.S. military officials, as well as over two dozen officers and troops on the front line. Some officials and soldiers spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe military operations…………………………………..

…………………….  In all, Ukraine has retaken only about 200 square miles of territory, at a cost of thousands of dead and wounded and billions in Western military aid in 2023 alone.

Comment: Moon of Alabama then sums up the counteroffensive debacle:

Key findings from reporting on the campaign include:

• Seventy percent of troops in one of the brigades leading the counteroffensive, and equipped with the newest Western weapons, entered battle with no combat experience.
• Ukraine’s setbacks on the battlefield led to rifts with the United States over how best to cut through deep Russian defenses.
• The commander of U.S. forces in Europe couldn’t get in touch with Ukraine’s top commander for weeks in the early part of the campaign amid tension over the American’s second-guessing of battlefield decisions.
• Each side blamed the other for mistakes or miscalculations. U.S. military officials concluded that Ukraine had fallen short in basic military tactics, including the use of ground reconnaissance to understand the density of minefields. Ukrainian officials said the Americans didn’t seem to comprehend how attack drones and other technology had transformed the battlefield.
• In all, Ukraine has retaken only about 200 square miles of territory, at a cost of thousands of dead and wounded and billions in Western military aid in 2023 alone.

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………… By day four, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s top commander, had seen enough. Incinerated Western military hardware — American Bradleys, German Leopard tanks, mine-sweeping vehicles — littered the battlefield. The numbers of dead and wounded sapped morale.

……………………………………………………. Months of planning with the United States was tossed aside on that fourth day, and the already delayed counteroffensive, designed to reach the Sea of Azov within two to three months, ground to a near-halt. Rather than making a nine-mile breakthrough on their first day, the Ukrainians in the nearly six months since June have advanced about 12 miles and liberated a handful of villages. Melitopol is still far out of reach.

This account of how the counteroffensive unfolded is the second in a two-part series and illuminates the brutal and often futile attempts to breach Russian lines, as well as the widening rift between Ukrainian and U.S. commanders over tactics and strategy. The first article examined the Ukrainian and U.S. planning that went into the operation.

This second part is based on interviews with more than 30 senior Ukrainian and U.S. military officials, as well as over two dozen officers and troops on the front line. Some officials and soldiers spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe military operations.

Key findings from reporting on the campaign include:

…………………………………………………………………..  In all, Ukraine has retaken only about 200 square miles of territory, at a cost of thousands of dead and wounded and billions in Western military aid in 2023 alone.

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. Chaotic battlefield conditions

The 47th claimed the liberation of Robotyne on Aug. 28. Air assault units in Ukraine’s 10th Corps then moved in, but have been unable to liberate any other villages.

The front line has also grown static along the parallel drive in the south, where Ukrainian marines led the push toward the Azov Sea city of Berdyansk. After retaking the villages of Staromaiorske and Urozhaine in July and August, there have been no further gains, leaving Ukrainian forces far from both Berdyansk and Melitopol.

………………………………………………………………..The Ukrainians were insistent that the West simply wasn’t giving them the air power and other weapons needed for a combined arms strategy to succeed. 

…………………………………………………………………………………… Reported by Michael Birnbaum, Karen DeYoung, Alex Horton, John Hudson, Isabelle Khurshudyan, Mary Ilyushina, Dan Lamothe, Greg Miller, Siobhan O’Grady, Kostiantyn Khudov, Serhii Korolchuk, Ellen Nakashima, Emily Rauhala, Missy Ryan and David L. Stern. https://www.sott.net/article/486691-WaPo-whitewashes-the-Ukraine-debacle-Miscalculations-divisions-marked-offensive-planning-by-U-S-Ukraine

December 9, 2023 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Ukraine, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Seymour Hersh: Russia, Ukraine peace underway, 4 new region additions

By Al Mayadeen English, Source: Agencies, 1 Dec 2023  https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/seymour-hersh–russia–ukraine-peace-underway–4-new-region

Included in the potential deal would also be Russia’s agreement to Ukraine’s accession to NATO provided that NATO troops are not stationed on its territory and only defensive weaponry is located there.

In his newly released article, renowned US journalist Seymour Hersh assured that peace negotiations between top Russian and Ukrainian generals Valery Gerasimov and Valerii Zaluzhnyi respectively are currently underway which include a potential security of Crimea and another four former regions of Ukraine as part of Russia.

Included in the potential deal would also be Russia’s agreement to Ukraine’s accession to NATO provided that NATO troops are not stationed on its territory and only defensive weaponry is located there.

According to Hersh, both Russia and Ukraine agree that the persistence of war is illogical and that Russian President Vladimir Putin would be with an agreement that fixates borders according to where the troops are stationed after the end of peace negotiations.

Hersh cited a US official involved in the top negotiations as saying: “This was not a spur-of-the-moment event,” adding: “This was carefully orchestrated by Zaluzhny. The message was the war was over and we want out. To continue it would destroy the next generation of the citizens of Ukraine.”  

On the other hand, the Biden administration is strongly opposing the peace deal while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky remains the “wild card” but has been allegedly told that “this is a military-to-military problem to solve and the talks will go on with or without you”. 

“The White House is totally against the proposed agreement,” the US official said, noting: “But it will happen. Putin has not disagreed.”

December 5, 2023 Posted by Christina Macpherson | Ukraine, weapons and war | Leave a comment