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Ukraine and Russia trade accusations over fire at occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant

By Reuters, August 12, 2024

  • Summary
  • Cause of fire unclear
  • Both sides trade blame
  • Main fire since extinguished
  • IAEA head says attacks endanger nuclear safety, must stop

Aug 11 (Reuters) – Moscow and Kyiv accused each other of starting a fire on the grounds of Europe’s largest and now Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine on Sunday, with both sides reporting no sign of elevated radiation.

The U.N.’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) nuclear watchdog, which has a presence at the vast six-reactor facility, said its experts had seen strong, dark smoke coming from the northern area of the plant in southern Ukraine following multiple explosions.

“These reckless attacks endanger nuclear safety at the plant and increase the risk of a nuclear accident. They must stop now,” IAEA chief Rafael Grossi warned in a separate statement, without attributing blame for the attack.

The fire comes less than a week after Ukraine’s forces launched their largest incursion into Russian territory since the war-start in 2022, a surprise move that has brought conflict into a new phase, after weeks of Moscow’s battlefield gains.

Russian state news agencies, TASS and RIA, cited the country’s nuclear energy company Rosatom as saying the main fire was extinguished shortly before midnight on Sunday.

RIA, citing Rosatom, said a drone attack started the fire at the cooling tower, without providing evidence.

Ukraine’s nuclear power company Energoatom said in a statement on the Telegram messaging app that one of the cooling towers and other equipment were damaged………………………….Ukraine’s Energoatom said Russia’s “negligence” or arson could have sparked the fire. 

Russia’s officials in turn, including Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, accused Kyiv of deliberately trying to destroy the plant and sow “nuclear terror………………………
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-russia-trade-accusations-over-fire-occupied-nuclear-plant-2024-08-11/

August 13, 2024 Posted by | Russia, safety, Ukraine | Leave a comment

Nuclear disaster warning for two countries as Putin orders urgent mass evacuation

Ukrainian forces have made a surprise incursion into Russian territory sparking fears fighting could develop around the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant.

By Richard Ashmore, Senior News Reporter Aug 10, 2024  https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1934579/nuclear-disaster-warning-ukraine-russia

The head of the international atomic monitoring body has issued a stark warning to Russia and Ukraine to avoid fighting getting close to huge nuclear power plant.

Rafael Grossi, the chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), urged both militaries to “exercise maximum restraint” if combat erupts near the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant.

In a bold move Ukraine has stunned President Putin and the Kremlin with a military incursion on Tuesday into the Russian provinces of Kursk, and most recently the neighbouring Belgorod region.

A humiliated Vladimir Putin has now been forced to issue a massive evacuation order for more than 76,000 civilians from the Kursk region. The measures, which also apply to the neighbouring Belgorod and Bryansk provinces that border Ukraine, allow the government to relocate residents, control phone communications and requisition vehicles.

The Russian Defence Ministry said today (Saturday) that fighting was continuing in the Kursk and that the army has conducted airstrikes against Ukrainian forces.

In an urgent statement issued last night, IAEA boss Rafael Grossi said: “The IAEA has been monitoring the situation on the reported military activities taking place in the vicinity of the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant.

“In view of the reportedly significant military activity, I wish to remind all parties of the seven indispensable pillars for ensuring nuclear safety and security during an armed conflict.”

Mr Grossi urged Russia and Ukraine to respect principles adhered to so far in the conflict which have been used to protect the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine.

He added: “These include, among others, the imperative to ensure the physical integrity of a nuclear power plant. This is valid irrespective of where an NPP is situated.

“At this juncture, I would like to appeal to all sides to exercise maximum restraint in order to avoid a nuclear accident with the potential for serious radiological consequences.”

August 13, 2024 Posted by | Russia, safety | Leave a comment

Will Ukraine’s attack on Russian territory lead to the seizure of the Kursk Nuclear Plant?

Bellona, BY Dmitry Gorchakov, 9 Aug 24

As the Ukrainian army’s cross-border incursion into Russia’s Kursk Region rages into its fourth day, the objectives of the surprise attack have been grist for media speculation. Some have suggested the Ukrainians might target the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant as payback for Russia’s long-running seizure of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.

It’s difficult to say how likely such a scenario is, but should it come to pass, it makes sense to briefly analyze the problems, risks, and dilemmas that would come of such an attack.

The specifics of the Kursk NPP

The Kursk Nuclear Power Plant is the closest Russian nuclear power plant to the Ukrainian border—just 60 km away. The idea that it could be at risk of attacks during a full-scale war became evident in the early months of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The Russia seizure of the Zaporizhzhia plant and territory of Chernobyl, followed by vigorous Ukrainian counterattacks, made clear that this would be a full-scale and potentially prolonged war with consequences for Russian territories.

As the war has dragged on, we have seen the Kursk NPP and its satellite city, Kurchatov, fall under attack by Ukrainian drones. No other Russian nuclear plants, which are much farther from the border and the front line, have been subjected to such attacks.

Currently, only two units are operating at the Kursk NPP, Units 3 and 4, each with a capacity of 1,000 MW. The first two units were shut down in 2021 and early 2024, respectively, after 45 years of operation. Fuel has been unloaded from Unit 1. All of the Kursk NPP’s units are RBMK-1000 reactors, similar to those used at Chernobyl. It’s worth noting that RBMK reactors — unlike the VVER-1000 reactors installed at the Zaporizhzhia NPP — are less protected against external threats. Much of our risk analysis for the Zaporizhzhia NPP during its seizure, presented in our 2023 report “The Radiation Risks of Seizing the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant,” was based on a comparison of the characteristics of these reactor types.

Let’s examine some of the technical points and key vulnerabilities of the RBMK design. First, the lack of concrete containment structures (domes) over the reactor compartments makes RBMK reactors more vulnerable to damage from accidental or deliberate attacks by missiles, bombs, and artillery. Small arms or even light drones pose less danger.

Second, RBMK’s are single-circuit, boiling water reactors. This means that the same water and steam that pass through the reactor core go directly to the turbine, without intermediate circuits and heat exchangers. Therefore, depressurization and damage to the machine hall could lead to a radiation release………………………………

The seizure of nuclear facilities during war

Any armed seizure of a nuclear facility is unacceptable and extremely dangerous. Formally, this can be considered nuclear terrorism according to the International Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism. Unfortunately, the reality of recent years in Europe has shown that many of the formulas embedded in international agreements, as well as many international organizations in general, are incapable of addressing, much less preventing, the modern challenges we are facing……………………………………………….   https://bellona.org/news/nuclear-issues/2024-08-will-ukraine-attacks-on-russian-territory-lead-to-the-seizure-of-the-kursk-nuclear-plant

August 11, 2024 Posted by | Russia, safety, Ukraine | Leave a comment

IAEA chief calls for restraint as fighting remains ongoing ‘in the vicinity’ of Russia’s Kursk Nuclear Power Plant

by Dmytro Basmat, Kyiv Independent 10th Aug 2024

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi called on both Kyiv and Moscow to “exercise maximum restraint” in order to avoid a nuclear accident as fighting is reportedly ongoing in the region around the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (KNPP).

In a statement issued by the IAEA on Aug. 9, Grossi said that a nuclear accident at the KNPP would have “the potential for serious radiological consequences.”

Grossi noted that two of the six nuclear reactors at the KNPP are in shutdown, while another two are fully operational. The remaining two reactors are under construction.

The statement comes as Ukraine’s continues its surprise incursion across the border into Kursk Oblast, with Ukraine reportedly making gains deeper into Russian territory.

Earlier in the day on Aug. 9, a fire caused by an alleged drone attack on a power substation led to power outages in several areas of Kurchatov which houses the KNPP, regional Governor Alexei Smirnov claimed.

On Aug. 8, Kurchatov’s mayor, Igor Korpunkov, claimed that battles are ongoing “a few dozen kilometers” from the town.

Independent Russian news outlet IStories reported on Aug. 9 that Russia is currently preparing to defend the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant as Ukrainian troops are approaching it.

The entrances to the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant were blocked as of the afternoon of Aug. 9, the pro-government regional newspaper network Bloknot claimed, citing its undisclosed sources.

Everything at the nuclear power plant’s units under construction has been de-energized, and construction workers have left the site, Bloknot claimed………………………………………..

Russia’s Emergency Situations Ministry also said on Aug. 9 that the situation in Kursk Oblast had been declared a “federal emergency,” and began sending additional military equipment into the region.  https://kyivindependent.com/iaea-chief-calls-for-restraint-to-ensure-nuclear-safety-at-kursk-nuclear-power-plant/

August 10, 2024 Posted by | Russia, safety, Ukraine, weapons and war | Leave a comment

EU member warns West not to ‘burn bridges’ with Russia

“Ghosting” doesn’t work in international relations, Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg has said

30 Jul 2024  https://www.rt.com/news/601844-austria-west-burn-bridges-russia/

Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg has warned against “ghosting” Russia when it comes to peace efforts to resolve the Ukraine conflict, insisting that all channels of communication should be used. 

The diplomat’s comments come after condemnation from EU officials over Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s visit to Russia earlier this month as part of his Ukraine “peace mission.” 
“One cannot burn all bridges… Ghosting doesn’t work in foreign policy. I’m a realist and I have to deal with the world as it is, and Russia is part of it,” Schallenberg told Austrian broadcaster ORF on Sunday.

Last month, Switzerland hosted a ‘Peace in Ukraine’ summit to which Russia was not invited. The event focused on Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky’s ‘peace plan’ to end the conflict, which calls on Russia to withdraw from all territories that Kiev claims as its own. The plan has been dismissed by Moscow as being detached from reality.

Schallenberg added that there are “channels of communication” with Russia and insisted that they must be used.

Austria is an EU member but is not part of NATO. Like Hungary, Vienna announced last year that it would not send weapons to Ukraine, countering the trend among the EU. Schallenberg last week also ruled out sending Austrian military instructors to Ukraine.

In March, Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer spoke against the idea of using the profits from Russian assets frozen in the EU to provide weapons for Kiev.

In his interview on Sunday, Schallenberg also claimed Russia was not showing willingness to engage in “serious dialogue,” which he said makes it important to involve countries such as India, Brazil, and China in talks, “because they may have more influence on Moscow than others.” 

During his controversial peace mission, Orban also visited China, which has long insisted on a diplomatic resolution to the Ukraine conflict. Beijing did not send a delegation to the conference in Switzerland in June, despite being invited.

Russia has repeatedly stated that it is open to dialogue on Ukraine. It has pointed out, however, that any talk of negotiations is pointless unless Zelensky rescinds a law banning Kiev from negotiating with the current leadership in Moscow.

August 9, 2024 Posted by | EUROPE, politics international, Russia | Leave a comment

Russia strengthens security at Kursk nuclear power plant amid Ukraine’s assault in region

Russian Guard Corps says additional forces deployed in vicinity of plant to protect it from Ukraine’s attack

Elena Teslova  |07.08.202, MOSCOW , https://www.aa.com.tr/en/russia-ukraine-war/russia-strengthens-security-at-kursk-nuclear-power-plant-amid-ukraines-assault-in-region/3298072

Russia said Wednesday that it strengthened security at the Kursk nuclear power plant amid Ukraine’s assault in the region. 

The Russian Guard Corps said it took additional measures to ensure the safety of the plant, including the deployment of additional units in the area.

“As part of ensuring the safety of a particularly important facility, the Russian Guard Corps units took additional measures to protect the Kursk nuclear power plant,” it said.

It added that the security services increased their forces to combat the Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups in the Kursk and Belgorod regions.

The office of Kursk’s Acting Gov. Alexey Smirnov announced that emergency situation forces were introduced in the region because of ongoing combat operations and the situation on the border “remains tense.”

Additional forces have also been allocated to the operational headquarters under the leadership of the governor of the Kursk region to handle the incursion, it said.

The Russian chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, said Wednesday that up to 1,000 Ukrainian troops attacked Russia’s military positions near two border settlements adjacent to Ukraine’s Sumy region on Tuesday.

At least five civilians were killed and 24 injured in the attack, including six children, according to statements from regional authorities.

Ukraine has not yet commented on the claims and independent verification is difficult because of the war.​​​​​​​

August 8, 2024 Posted by | Russia, safety | Leave a comment

Putin often cites Russia’s ‘nuclear doctrine’ governing the use of atomic weapons. But what is it?

9 News, By Associated Press, 1 August 24

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, President Vladimir Putin and other Kremlin voices have frequently threatened the West with its nuclear arsenal.

On Day 1 of the war, Putin said “whoever tries to impede us, let alone create threats for our country and its people, must know that the Russian response will be immediate and lead to consequences you have never seen in history”.

Over nearly two and a half years of fighting, the West has given Ukraine billions of dollars of advanced weapons, some of which have struck Russian soil.

And while there have been more Kremlin threats – and even the deployment of battlefield nuclear weapons in Belarus, just over the border from Ukraine – so far it has remained only a blunt message.

What could finally trigger a nuclear response?

Asked that in June by international news agencies, Putin pointed to Russia’s so-called nuclear doctrine.

“Look what is written there,” he said at the St Petersburg session.

“If somebody’s actions threaten our sovereignty and territorial integrity, we consider it possible to use all means at our disposal.”

Now Russian hawks are urging him to change the doctrine to lower the threshold for using nuclear weapons, and Putin says the document could be modified to take into account the evolving global situation.

What is Russia’s nuclear doctrine?

Formally known as the “Basic Principles of State Policy on Nuclear Deterrence”, it was signed by Putin in 2020 and outlines when Russia could dip into its atomic arsenal, the world’s largest.

It describes nuclear weapons as “a means of deterrence”, noting that their use is an “extreme and compelled measure”.

It declares that Russia “takes all necessary efforts to reduce the nuclear threat and prevent aggravation of interstate relations that could trigger military conflicts, including nuclear ones”.

The document states that “nuclear deterrence is aimed to provide comprehension by a potential adversary of the inevitability of retaliation in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation and/or its allies.”

What does it say will trigger using nuclear weapons?

Russia could use them, the doctrine says, “in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies, as well as in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy”.

It says nuclear weapons could be used under the following specific situations:

  • If reliable information is received about the launch of ballistic missiles targeting the territory of Russia or its allies.
  • If nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction are used against Russia or its allies.
  • If an enemy attack with conventional weapons threatens Russia’s existence.
  • If there are attacks on critically important Russian government or military facilities that could undermine the country’s retaliatory nuclear strike capability.

Has any attack so far come close to crossing this threshold?

As Russia attacked parts of northeastern Ukraine near the city of Kharkiv, Washington has allowed Kyiv to use longer-range US-supplied weapons for strikes in Russian territory in the border region.

But these attacks have been limited in scope and would not seem to pose an existential threat that would fall under the nuclear doctrine.

However, the hawks in Moscow have pointed to a series of Ukrainian attacks on Russian air bases that host long-range nuclear capable bombers earlier in the conflict, as well as recent raids on early warning radars.

They say these circumstances would seem to warrant the use of nuclear weapons as laid out in the doctrine…………………………………………………………………………. more https://www.9news.com.au/world/russia-nuclear-weapons-vladimir-putin/c2c4b211-658d-4b11-b6bc-656b56c5bd39

August 2, 2024 Posted by | Russia, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Tit for tat? Putin warns Russia may resume production of intermediate-range nuclear weapons

Edited By: Vikrant Singh Jul 28, 2024 https://www.wionews.com/world/tit-for-tat-putin-declares-russia-to-resume-production-of-intermediate-range-nuclear-weapons-744964

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday (Jul 28) declared his nation won’t shy away from resuming production of intermediate-range nuclear weapons if the US goes ahead with plans of deploying such missiles to Germany or elsewhere in Europe. These missiles can travel between 500 and 5,500 kilometres.

“If the United States carries out such plans, we will consider ourselves liberated from the unilateral moratorium previously adopted on the deployment of medium- and short-range strike capabilities,” Putin threatened during a naval parade in Saint Petersburg.

Notably, intermediate-range nuclear weapons were subject to an arms control treaty that the US and Soviet Union signed in 1987. However, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty collapsed in 2019 after both sides accused each other of violations.

Following the withdrawal from the treaty, Russia announced it wouldn’t start production of the weapons until the US started deploying these missiles abroad.

Earlier this month, the US announced it will start “episodic deployments” of long-range US missiles, including Tomahawk cruise missiles, in Germany beginning 2026.

Now, Russia sees it as a direct threat to its national security. After the deployment by the US, Putin said that “important Russian administrative and military sites” would fall within the range of such missiles that “could in the future be equipped with nuclear warheads, such that our territories would be within around 10 minutes” of a strike being launched.

“This situation reminds us of the events of the Cold War linked to the deployment of American Pershing medium-range missiles in Europe,” the Russian leader added.

Earlier in March, Putin had said Russia was “technically ready” for a nuclear war if the US sent troops to Ukraine.

“From a military-technical point of view, we are, of course, ready,” Putin had said.

“I don’t think that here everything is rushing to it (nuclear confrontation), but we are ready for this,” the Russian leader further said.

July 30, 2024 Posted by | Russia, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Putin warns the US of Cold War-style missile crisis

Reuters By Guy Faulconbridge and Dmitry Antonov, July 28, 2024

  • Summary
  • Russia warns United States over missiles in Germany
  • Putin says Russia will deploy if plans are implemented
  • Putin: United States risks Cold War-style crisis
  • U.S. plans to deploy longer range missiles in Germany

MOSCOW, July 28 (Reuters) – Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday warned the United States that if Washington deployed long-range missiles in Germany then Russia would station similar missiles in striking distance of the West.

The United States said on July 10 that it would start deploying long-range missiles, opens new tab in Germany from 2026 in preparation for a longer-term deployment that will include SM-6, Tomahawk cruise missiles and developmental hypersonic weapons.

n a speech to sailors from Russia, China, Algeria and India to mark Russian navy day in the former imperial capital of St Petersburg, Putin warned the United States that it risked triggering a Cold War-style missile crisis with the move.

“The flight time to targets on our territory of such missiles, which in the future may be equipped with nuclear warheads, will be about 10 minutes,” Putin said.

“We will take mirror measures to deploy, taking into account the actions of the United States, its satellites in Europe and in other regions of the world.”……………………………………….  Https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-warns-united-states-cold-war-style-missile-crisis-2024-07-28/

July 30, 2024 Posted by | politics international, Russia, USA | Leave a comment

Russia Says It May Deploy Nuclear Missiles in Response to New US Missile Deployment to Germany

 by Dave DeCamp July 18, 2024,  https://news.antiwar.com/2024/07/18/russia-says-it-may-deploy-nuclear-missiles-in-response-to-new-us-missile-deployment-to-germany/

The US is deploying missiles previously banned by the INF, a treaty between the US and Russia the Trump administration left in 2019

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said Thursday that Moscow won’t rule out deploying nuclear missiles in response to the US planning to deploy missile systems to Germany in 2026 that were previously banned by the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty.

“I don’t rule anything out,” Ryabkov said when asked about the possibility of a nuclear deployment.

Ryabkov went on to reference Kaliningrad, the Russian Oblast on the Baltic Sea that’s wedged between Lithuania and Poland and separated from the rest of Russia. He said the territory “has long attracted the unhealthy attention of our opponents.”

Hinting Russia could respond to the US deployment by sending weapons to Kaliningrad, Ryabkov said, “Kaliningrad is no exception in terms of our 100 percent determination to do everything necessary to push back those who may harbor aggressive plans and who try to provoke us to take certain steps that are undesirable for anyone and are fraught with further complications.”

The INF, which the US withdrew from in 2019, prohibited land-based missile systems with a range between 310 and 3,400 miles. The planned US deployment to Germany includes a land-based version of nuclear-capable Tomahawk missiles, which have a range of about 1,000 miles and are primarily used by US Navy ships and submarines.

The US announced the deployment during last week’s NATO summit in Washington and said it would also include SM-6 missiles and “developmental hypersonic weapons.” Based on the statement, the US likely plans to deploy a Typhon launcher, a covert system concealed in a 40-foot shipping container that can fire Tomahawks and SM-6 missiles. The SM-6 can hit targets up to 290 miles away, below the levels previously banned by the INF.

When the US withdrew from the INF treaty, it claimed Russia was violating the agreement by developing the ground-launched 9M729 cruise missile. Russian officials denied the missile was a violation, saying it had a maximum range of 298 miles.

Russia also said the US was violating the INF by establishing Aegis Ashore missile defense systems in Romania and Poland. The systems use Mk-41 vertical launchers, which can fit Tomahawk missiles. During the NATO summit, the US also announced that its Aegis system in Poland is now operational.

The US refused to negotiate with Russia on the INF issues, and the Trump administration tore up the treaty in August 2019 and began testing previously banned missile systems almost immediately after. It was clear the US exited the treaty so it could deploy intermediate-range missiles near China, leading Russia to propose a moratorium on the deployment of INF missiles in Europe. But the US never accepted the offer.

July 23, 2024 Posted by | Russia, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Russian Officials Vow Response to US Missile Deployment to Germany

There’s no indication yet that the missiles will be armed with nuclear weapons, but the statement leaves open the possibility. The US already has nuclear bombs stationed in Germany as part of NATO’s nuclear sharing, but they are B61 gravity bombs that need to be dropped from aircraft.

Officials across the government reacted strongly to the news that the US is deploying previously banned missiles that could hit Russian territory

by Dave DeCamp July 11, 2024 , https://news.antiwar.com/2024/07/11/russian-officials-vow-response-to-us-missile-deployment-to-germany/

On Thursday, Russian officials reacted strongly and vowed to respond to the US announcing that it will deploy missile systems to Germany starting in 2026 that were previously banned by the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty.

“Without nerves, without emotions, we will develop a military response, first of all, to this new game,” said Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov. He called the US decision “destructive to regional safety and strategic stability.”

Anatoly Antonov, Russia’s ambassador in Washington, said the deployment could lead to confrontation. “The Americans are increasing the risk of a missile arms race. Here, they forget that going the way of confrontation may set off an uncontrollable escalation amid the dangerous aggravation of tensions along the Russia-NATO track,” he said.

Valentina Matviyenko, speaker of the Federation Council, Russia’s upper house of parliament, warned of a strong response if the US goes through with the deployment. “I hope that it will not happen, because Russia’s response will be harsh and adequate. This is simply unacceptable,” she said.

The INF prohibited land-based missile systems with a range between 310 and 3,400 miles. The US and Germany said in a joint statement that the planned deployment includes a land-based version of nuclear-capable Tomahawk missiles, which have a range of about 1,000 miles and are primarily used by US Navy ships and submarines.

The US and Germany also said that the deployment will include SM-6 missiles, which have a range of about 290 miles, and “developmental hypersonic weapons.” The statement said the missiles have “significantly longer range than current land-based fires in Europe.”

There’s no indication yet that the missiles will be armed with nuclear weapons, but the statement leaves open the possibility. The US already has nuclear bombs stationed in Germany as part of NATO’s nuclear sharing, but they are B61 gravity bombs that need to be dropped from aircraft.

Before the INF was signed in 1987, the Soviet Union had land-based nuclear-armed missiles deployed in its western territory that could hit western Europe, and the US had similar systems deployed that could hit Soviet territory.

When the US withdrew from the INF treaty, it claimed Russia was violating the agreement by developing the ground-launched 9M729 cruise missile. Russian officials denied the missile was a violation, saying it had a maximum range of 298 miles.

Russia also said the US was violating the INF by establishing Aegis Ashore missile defense systems in Romania and Poland. The systems use Mk-41 vertical launchers, which can fit Tomahawk missiles. During the NATO summit, the US also announced that its Aegis system in Poland is now operational.

The US refused to negotiate with Russia on the INF issues, and the Trump administration tore up the treaty in August 2019 and began testing previously banned missile systems almost immediately after. It was clear the US exited the treaty so it could deploy intermediate-range missiles near China, leading Russia to propose a moratorium on the deployment of INF missiles in Europe. But the US never accepted the offer.

July 14, 2024 Posted by | Russia, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Russia might restart the Zaporizhzhia Ukrainian nuclear plant it seized, our new report shows

 Charles Digges, Bellona, 2 July 24

“……………………………………………….. Russia has taken over the plant with its own technicians while coercing the Ukrainian workers who remain to sign contracts with Rosenergoatom, the branch of Rosatom, responsible for day-to-day operations at the 11 nuclear plants within Russia. The Kremlin has also spun off another commercial tendril from Rosatom to oversee the management of the captive plant.  

But should a potential restart continue to unfold, the principal nuclear threat of Putin’s war on Ukraine could soon be an atomic energy station operating on the front lines of a protracted war.

Since early in the invasion, all of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant’s reactors have been placed in various states of shutdown. This was a critical safety measure, urged by the IAEA and agreed to by both Moscow and Kyiv, which would dampen the impact of a radiological disaster should any of the reactors suffer a catastrophic strike.  

In this setting, the content of short-lived and highly dangerous radionuclides like iodine-131 in uranium fuel is much lower than if the plant was active because they have partially, or even completely decayed since September 2022. But once the reactors are restarted, these radionuclides will once again begin to form — making their spread into the environment a possibility should reactor containments be ruptured. 

Despite the obvious risks, recent statements from Russian officials and, more concretely, the activities of Russia’s technical oversight agency within Ukraine, indicate that the plant’s Russian occupiers could move to restart at least one of the reactor units sometime this year — thus removing this important assurance against disaster.  

To restart a reactor, Russian technicians would first have to guarantee an ample and stable supply of cooling water. This task was made more difficult by the destruction of the nearby Khakovka Dam in June 2023, which compromised several reservoirs used for precisely that purpose.   

But over the past year, the Russian side has announced plans to replenish the plant’s damaged cooling ponds, which would then be capable of supplying up to three reactors. 

Further, Russian technicians have begun to rewire the power grid to divert the electricity produced by the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant toward Russia and the occupied territories of Ukraine. Satellite images of the Rosatom-controlled Zaporizhzhia Terminal Power Plant, which connects the nuclear plant to the Ukrainian grid, show evidence of efforts to shift powerlines away from Ukraine and into the occupied regions. 

The plant has also recently played host to high-profile guests from Moscow. In April, Alexander Trembitsky, the head of Russia’s Federal Service for Environmental, Technological and Nuclear Supervision, Rostekhnadzor) visited the plant to review personnel certifications and work toward extending the lifespan of the reactors. Rostekhnadzor officials have also been codifying licensing requirements for the plant to operate under Russian purview and reviewing various plant systems since the start of the year.  

That same month Sergei Kiriyenko, a former CEO of Rosatom and one of Putin’s first deputies, visited Enerhodar, where many plant workers live.  

This flurry of activity followed a March meeting in Sochi between Putin, current Rosatom CEO Alexei Likhachev, and IAEA director general Rafael Grossi, during which, according to media reports, Putin stated his intentions to restart Zaporizhzhia’s reactors. This remains diplomatically unconfirmed by other sources, but recent events seem to bear those intentions out.  

Kyiv vociferously protested Russia’s efforts to disconnect a nuclear plant that once supplied 5700 megawatts, or about 10%, of Ukraine’s entire electricity needs. There is little doubt that the military could fight back against any efforts to redirect this energy.

Still, efforts to relaunch the reactors may prove to be more effort than they are worth.  

Fresh nuclear fuel and spare parts would have to be transported across war zones. The pump station enhancing cooling water supplies is being constructed under conditions of military conflict. Powerlines will have to be rerouted under fire. All of this will cost billions of rubles, which, in our analysis, will hardly be recouped by tariffs on the power one or two Zaporizhzhia reactors would produce.  ………. https://bellona.org/news/nuclear-issues/2024-07-russia-might-restart-the-ukrainian-nuclear-plant-it-seized

July 4, 2024 Posted by | Russia, safety, Ukraine | Leave a comment

G7 Leaders Agree To Provide Ukraine With $50 Billion Using Frozen Russian Assets

The step will mark a significant escalation in the economic war against Russia

by Dave DeCamp June 13, 2024

Group of Seven leaders agreed at a summit in Italy on Thursday to give Ukraine $50 billion using frozen Russian Central Bank assets, a step that marks a significant escalation in the economic war against Russia.

The plan is to provide the $50 billion to Ukraine by the end of the year in the form of a loan, which will be paid back using profits from the approximately $280 billion in frozen Russian assets held by the US and its allies.

The idea is seen as a compromise between the US and Europe, as President Biden wanted to steal all of the frozen Russian funds to give to Ukraine. But the vast majority of the money is held in Europe, and EU leaders were hesitant to do that.

Instead, the EU devised a separate plan to provide Ukraine with about $3 billion per year using the interest made by the Russian assets. Ukraine said that amount wasn’t enough, and the US proposed the $50 billion loan.

“This has been something that the United States has put a lot of energy and effort into,” National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters. “We see proceeds from these assets as a valuable source of resources for Ukraine at a moment when Russia continues to brutalize the country, not just through military action on the front but through the attempted destruction of its energy grid and its economic vitality.”

Russia has made clear it would view either plan as the theft of its sovereign funds and is preparing to retaliate. Stealing the money makes reconciliation between Russia and the West even less likely since lifting sanctions would mean having to give assets back to Moscow that have already been spent. The move will also reduce faith in the Western banking system and speed up global de-dollarization.

June 16, 2024 Posted by | business and costs, Russia, Ukraine, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Putin details Ukraine peace proposal


Theo Burman, Newsweek, Fri, 14 Jun 2024 https://www.sott.net/article/492265-Putin-details-Ukraine-peace-proposal

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday promised a ceasefire in Ukraine, provided that several conditions are met by Kyiv.

During a wide-ranging speech to foreign ministry officials, Putin stated that Russia would be ready to enter talks as soon as “tomorrow” to negotiate an end to conflict in Ukraine, provided that Ukrainian troops are withdrawn from several key regions. He also demanded that Ukraine give up all plans to join NATO, saying that the “moral responsibility for the continuation of bloodshed” would be on the West if the proposal was rejected.

Putin said: “I want to emphasize, it must be from the entire territory of these regions within their administrative borders as they existed at the time of their incorporation into Ukraine.

“As soon as Kyiv says they’re ready for such a decision and start the real withdrawal of forces from these regions and officially declare rejection of plans to join NATO, from our side, immediately, literally the same minute, will come an order to stop the fire and start negotiations.

“We will do it immediately. Obviously, we will guarantee the uninterrupted and safe withdrawal of Ukrainian forces.”

In order for the ceasefire to go through, Kyiv would need to withdraw troops from the Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk and Luhansk regions, effectively giving Moscow control.

Comment: Footage of the announcement: The essence of our proposal is not some kind of temporary truce or stop of fire, as the West wants, in order to restore losses, rearm the Kiev regime, and prepare it for a new offensive.

I repeat: we are not talking about freezing the conflict, but about its final but about its final completion. And I will say again: as soon as #Kiev agrees to a similar course of events proposed today, agrees to the complete withdrawal of its troops from the DPR and LPR, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions and really begins this process, we are ready to to begin negotiations w/out delaying them.

I repeat, our principled position is the following: the neutral, non-aligned, non-nuclear status of #Ukraine, its demilitarization and denazification. Moreover, everyone generally agreed with these parameters during the Istanbul negotiations.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly said that he will continue to fight until all disputed regions of Ukraine have been liberated.

Ukraine has repeatedly lobbied to join NATO since before the escalation of the conflict. Putin has consistently branded the expansion of NATO, which admitted Finland into the organization in 2023, as a threat to Russian security and an escalation of tensions in the region.

Newsweek contacted Zelensky’s office for comment via email.

Putin also claimed that there was never an intention of Russian forces attacking Kiev directly, and that the original motive for the advance in 2022 was to force Ukraine to agree to a peace deal.

Russian media outlet Meduza reported that Putin was seeking a ceasefire beyond a “temporary truce”, and that peace negotiations would also require the lifting of Western sanctions on Russia, which have continued to damage the economy since the conflict began.

Putin said: “We would like such decisions — regarding the withdrawal of troops, non-aligned status, and starting a dialogue with Russia, on which the future existence of Ukraine depends — to be made independently in Kyiv, guided by the genuine national interests of the Ukrainian people. Not at the behest of the West. Although there are significant doubts about this.

“If Kyiv and Western capitals reject it, that is their choice, their political and moral responsibility for the continuation of bloodshed.”

Notably this occurs just a day or so after NATO announced its ‘readiness’ of 300,000 troops and their potential takeover of Europe, as well as Zelensky’s widely ridiculed ‘peace’ summit.

It also occurs amidst an unscheduled, ‘secret’ meeting of Prince William with MI6, the UK’s intelligence service for foreign operations; allegedly the last time he met with them was just prior to Russia’s SMO in Ukraine.

Rather than this being some kind of appeasement from Russia to NATO, one might suppose Putin is making one last ditch attempt to propose a resolution with the agreement-incapable West, before it is, yet again, forced to take extraordinary measures:

June 16, 2024 Posted by | Russia, Ukraine, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Why the West should take Russia’s nuclear threats more seriously.

Russian nuclear threats have returned to the forefront of the war in Ukraine, but
this time with a new feature: exercises involving tactical nuclear weapons.
These exercises come in response to Western powers signaling broader
support for Ukraine.

On April 29, for instance, French President Emmanuel
Macron reaffirmed his position that France remains open to sending ground
troops to Ukraine to bolster European security against Russian aggression.
Shortly after, the United Kingdom’s Foreign Secretary, David Cameron,
announced that the UK government would support Ukraine using UK-supplied
weapons against Russian territory.

In response, Russia characterized these
statements as a “completely new round of escalation of tension” and
announced on May 6 that it would conduct drills simulating the use of
tactical nuclear weapons, or—as Russia describes
them—“non-strategic” nuclear weapons. Although these drills
constitute a new kind of nuclear threat, they have been dismissed as not
credible by a growing number of European countries. But the fine line
between skepticism and complacency could pose significant risks for crisis
stability in Europe.

Bulletin of Atomic Scientists 12th June 2024

https://thebulletin.org/2024/06/why-the-west-should-take-russias-nuclear-threats-more-seriously/

June 16, 2024 Posted by | Russia, weapons and war | Leave a comment

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