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Sizewell C nuclear: Uncertainty surrounds final investment decision as parliamentary session shortened

New Civil Engineer 24 MAY, 2024 BY TOM PASHBY

The final investment decision (FID) for Sizewell C has been thrown into limbo by the early dissolution of parliament, with prime minister Rishi Sunak having called an election for 4 July.

Conservative politicians were caught off guard by the announcement, made at around 5pm on 22 May. This means Parliament will dissolve on Thursday 30 May.

Earlier in the day of the General Election announcement, the energy secretary Claire Coutinho issued a written statement about the proposed nuclear power station at Wylfa in north Wales where she also commented on the in-development Suffolk nuclear station, saying: “We intend to take a final investment decision on Sizewell C before the end of this Parliament.”

It can be assumed that Coutinho was unaware that the end date of the current parliament was due to be brought forward by the calling of the general election.

Nuclear minister Andrew Bowie also said earlier this month that an FID would be announced by end of this Parliament.

With Parliament now to dissolve next Thursday, the period known as ‘wash-up’ is underway where the government tries to pass a selection of remaining pieces of legislation.

The government has to date invested £2.5bn in the project in numerous tranches but intends to find private investors to cover the majority.

The government commenced the search for investment partners in the circa £20bn project last September. It said it is seeking companies with “substantial experience in the delivery of major infrastructure projects” and added “ministers will be looking for private investors who can add value to the project and will only accept private investment if it provides value for money, while bolstering energy security”.

Potential investors were required to register their interest by early October 2023 but there has been little news in the more than half a year since.

The shortening of the current parliamentary period means there is now uncertainty about whether the government will have time to make an FID.

A government source confirmed to NCE that progress continues towards FID.

The source said the government would continue to fund the project in the pre-election period using investment funds which had already been made available and said operations at the site would be business as usual in the lead-up to polling day.

If the current government does not make an FID for Sizewell C, it will fall to the next government due to be elected on 4 July to do so. If there is a hung Parliament, there may be a further delay to the formation of a new government.

A Sizewell C spokesperson said: “We are continuing to engage with investors and prepare for FID and we are moving ahead as planned on our construction site.”

However, campaign group Stop Sizewell C believes it is now impossible for a FID to be made before the General Election.


A spokesperson for the group said that this “lets the Conservatives off the hook for signing away another HS2”.

They continued: “It also presents a likely Labour government, looking to drive down bills and reach net zero by 2030, an opportunity to focus on more cost effective renewable projects.

“We are going to do everything in our power to ensure that this election signals the death knell for slow, expensive, risky Sizewell C.”

The money invested in the Sizewell C project will look to be recouped through a regulated asset base (RAB) model for funding, which would see the investors money returned through a surcharge on consumer energy bills…………………….  https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/sizewell-c-uncertainty-surrounds-final-investment-decision-as-parliamentary-session-shortened-24-05-2024/

May 25, 2024 Posted by | business and costs, politics, UK | Leave a comment

Hinkley C – don’t say I didn’t warn you!

It is worth remembering that while construction costs are in the £42 to £48 billion range, the 35 years of electricity at £87.50 or £92.50/MW in 2012 money, adjusted for inflation will cost UK energy users a gargantuan £111 or £116 billion over the next 35 years. Could we use that money better? You bet.

2016 was a missed opportunity, most likely the last opportunity to scrap the benighted project, one of the worst blunders in the history of public procurement and of the UK’s energy industry

In 2016, I called for Hinkley C to be scrapped. Now its commissioning has been pushed back to the end of the decade and its costs have ballooned to as much as £48 billion in 2024 money. I was right.

Thoughts of Chairman Michael , MICHAEL LIEBREICH, JAN 25, 2024

by EDF in 2017), announced a “Nuclear Renaissance” and was lobbying for a new build programme in the UK to replace aging plants set for retirement. In the absence of evidence, they claimed new plants would produce power for £24 per MWh (£39/MWh in 2024 money, or $50/MWh).

The Labour Party, long dead set against nuclear power, were convinced. In January 2008, Prime Minister Gordon Brown declared, in the preface to a White Paper on nuclear power entitled “Meeting the Energy Challenge” that “nuclear should have a role to play in the generation of electricity, alongside other low carbon technologies.” The White Paper estimated the total cost of building a 1.6GW nuclear plant at £2.8 billion – which would translate into £5.6 billion for Hinkley C’s 3.2GW (£9.0 billion or $11.5 billion in 2024 money).

EDF’s UK CEO Vincent de Rivaz was cock-a-hoop, predicting that Brits would be cooking their turkeys with power from Hinkley C by Christmas 2017. But remember that figure – £9.0 billion for 3.2GW.

By October 2013, Osborne and Davey had agreed a Contract for Difference with EDF for electricity production at a strike price of £92.50/MWh in 2012 money (£132/MWh in today’s money or $169/MWh) – rising with inflation for 35 years, but dropping to £87.50 (£125/MWh in today’s money or $173/MWh) if a second EPR were to be built. That EPR is Sizewell C – of which more later.

At that point, Hinkley C was expected to cost £16 billion in 2015 money (£22 billion in 2024 money or $28 billion). It was due to come online in 2023 and continue cooking Christmas turkeys for 60 years.

Since then, on five separate occasions EDF has announced that costs have increased, and the commissioning date pushed back. The only delay which was not fully in the control of EDF and it suppliers in the nuclear and construction industries was Covid – which can be blamed for around a year of delay and a couple of billion of cost increase, but not more.

Last week – yet another delay and cost increase

So then last week, we learned that the plant would be lucky to open much before 2030 – that’s 13 years after de Rivaz’s 2017 promise – and costs would be between £31 and £35 billion in 2015 terms (2015 is used because the CfD figures were set in 2015 money). That is £42 to £48 billion in 2024 money, or up to $61.4 billion).

Remember, we were first promised it would cost £9 billion in today’s money, so that’s an increase of between 4.6 and 5.4 times.

Now, I know that supporters of the project and hard-core nuclear fans will be bursting blood vessels at this point, desperate to jump in an explain that most of the difference between £9 billion and nearly £50 billion is down to financing cost resulting from the use of the CfD mechanism, regulatory cost, delay in government decision-making and so on. But I’m going to say it: I don’t care.

If the nuclear industry says it can build something for £9 billion, it needs to build it for £9 billion. That’s what happens in other industries. If the right number, including finance costs was £22 billion, it should have said so all along. And if it knows that there is a good chance of cost over-runs more than doubling the cost, it should include an appropriate contingency when it promotes and negotiates projects.

How big things (don’t) get done

It is not like cost over-runs in nuclear projects are a big secret. The world’s leading academic expert on project management is Danish Professor Bent Flyvbjerg, author of How Big Things Get Done, who joined me on Cleaning Up last year. Having build a huge database of projects of different sources, he can definitively show that nuclear plants are worse only than Olympic Games in terms of cost over-runs. On average they go 120% over the budget, with 58% of them going a whopping 204% over budget.

The common trope among nuclear fans is that it is only in the western world that nuclear new build is either problematic or exorbitantly expensive, and this is driven by excessive regulation.

While excessive delays in emerging nuclear powers are certainly less common, there is no transparency over how this is achieved. There are ample examples of problems: the use of fake certification documents, the sealing of deals for reactor sales by military inducements, cutting corners on safety, failure to maintain control of the fuel supply chain, failure to disclose problems and accidents; unexplained accidents on aging plants.

There is also no transparency over the real cost of their plants. Put simply, these are are whatever their leaders say they are: it is they who decide the cost of capital, state guarantees, whether safety standards meet or exceed international standards, whether safety standards are enforced, the environmental standards applied to the supply chain, the speed projects proceed through licencing, the need or not to provision for decommissioning costs, the diversion of costs to military, energy or industrial budgets, and so on.

Back to 2016

Now let’s get back to Hinkley C, and 2016. One of the first things Theresa May did when she took over from David Cameron was to ask her security advisors to review the wisdom of allowing state-owned China General Nuclear to invest £6 billion in the project. In the end May backed down and allowed the investment to go ahead, but that is the background to my piece: the project’s future was in doubt, and it was the last realistic chance to kill it before tens of billions of pounds had been invested. And this is what I wrote: The case for Hinkley Point C has collapsed: It’s time to scrap it.

Perhaps of most interest, given the recent breathless announcements by French ministers of their desire to build a lot more new nuclear power stations, and the money being thrown by the UK government at Sizewell C before it has reached a final investment decision, is this section:

There are at least three ways in which [Greg Clark, the freshly-appointed Minister at BEIS] could potentially replace its supply contribution more cheaply, more quickly, and with more impact on UK industry and exports.

He could mandate more renewable generating capacity, paired with interconnections and a range of technologies to manage intermittency. He could push through a fleet of new gas power stations and get serious about carbon capture and storage. Or he could spend a lot less than £37bn on energy efficiency, simply removing the demand for 3.2 GW of base-load power.

Alternatively, if the government still has a nuclear itch, Clark needs to ask why Hinkley C is the right way to scratch it. After decades of technological stagnation, new nuclear technologies are approaching commercialisation, offering passive safety, so they can’t melt down in the event of a power failure, and smaller scale, so they shouldn’t take 15 years to see the light of day.

It is worth remembering that while construction costs are in the £42 to £48 billion range, the 35 years of electricity at £87.50 or £92.50/MW in 2012 money, adjusted for inflation will cost UK energy users a gargantuan £111 or £116 billion over the next 35 years. Could we use that money better? You bet.

Summary

So there you have it. 2016 was a missed opportunity, most likely the last opportunity to scrap the benighted project, one of the worst blunders in the history of public procurement and of the UK’s energy industry………………  https://mliebreich.substack.com/p/hinkley-c-dont-say-i-didnt-warn-you

May 25, 2024 Posted by | business and costs, spinbuster, UK | Leave a comment

Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant’s main power line down for hours, no safety threat

 https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-main-power-line-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-goes-down-no-safety-2024-05-23/

MOSCOW, May 23 (Reuters) – Russia said the main power line supplying the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP) in Ukraine was down for more than three hours on Thursday, though there was no threat to safety.

The six reactors at the Zaporizhzhia plant, held by Russia and located close to the front line of the conflict in Ukraine, are not in operation but it relies on external power to keep its nuclear material cool and prevent a catastrophic accident.

The Russian management said on their official channel on the Telegram app that the reasons for the outage, which had not caused any change in radiation levels, were being investigated.

It had initially said the main 750 kilovolt (kV) “Dniprovska” power line went down at 1:31 p.m. local time (1031 GMT), while the 330 kV “Ferosplavnaya” line was supplying power to the plant now.

It later reported that the Dniprovska line was restored at 4:49 p.m. local. Power supply to ZNPP is possible via both lines, it added.

The Dniprovska power line also went down for almost five hours on March 22, highlighting what the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said were “ever present dangers to nuclear safety and security” from the Russia-Ukraine war.

Russia and Ukraine have each accused the other at various times of shelling the Zaporizhzhia plant, which is Europe’s largest. Both deny such accusations.

The IAEA has said that the ZNPP has been experiencing major off-site power problems since the conflict began in early 2022, exacerbating the nuclear safety and security risks confronting the site.

May 25, 2024 Posted by | safety, Ukraine | Leave a comment

US military aid to Ukraine is ‘grift’ – Blackwater founder to Tucker Carlson

The equipment Washington sends to Kiev will never change the tide of battle, Eric Prince has said

 https://www.rt.com/news/598015-us-military-aid-ukraine-blackwater/ 22 May 24

US weapons shipments to Ukraine are senseless since they are not capable of changing the course of the conflict, Eric Prince, the founder of private American military contractor Blackwater, told journalist Tucker Carlson in an interview published on Tuesday.

The military aid to Ukraine is nothing but a “massive grift paid by the Pentagon,” Prince stated, adding that the latest major aid package worth $61 billion approved by Congress and signed by President Joe Biden in April will end up lining the coffers of US defense industry giants. Prince, himself a former Navy SEAL officer, resigned and divested from his company after the 2007 Iraqi massacre scandal.

“Most of that money goes to five major defense contractors to replace at five times the cost the weapons that we have already sent the Ukrainians,” the Blackwater founder said, adding that “it does not change the outcome of the battle.” 

“The Biden administration believed that all this American weaponry would have saved the day. It has not,” Prince said.

The Russian military has published photos and videos of damaged and destroyed Western-made military equipment in Ukraine, including US-supplied Abrams tanks. One of them ended up at a trophy exhibition in Moscow, alongside a German-made Leopard main battle tank and dozens of other pieces.

Kiev’s forces are already spread “very thin” and are about to face an “ugly summer,” according to Prince. “All the defenses that were supposed to be built by Ukrainians are much smaller or non-existent,” he said, mostly due to “corruption issues.” 

Moscow’s forces are “going to have a very good summer” and will seek to “absolutely humiliate the West and make sure they never have a problem with Ukraine again,” the Blackwater founder believes.

The interview comes amid Russian offensives in Donbass and Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkov Region, where Moscow’s forces have been steadily gaining ground. Last month, Russia’s former defense minister, Sergey Shoigu, said Moscow’s forces had seized the initiative and “dispelled the myth of the superiority of Western weapons.”

Prince went on to say that he never believed Ukraine could push Russia out of Donbass and Crimea. “The war should never have [been] started.” 

The only thing Washington and its allies will achieve in Ukraine is “facilitating the demise of the Ukrainian men” and “destroying” this nation “for future generations,” the Blackwater founder said.

Moscow has warned that Western arms shipments to Ukraine will only prolong the conflict without changing the outcome. It has also accused the West of forcing Kiev to “fight to the last Ukrainian.” In early May, Shoigu said that Kiev has lost more than 111,000 troops this year alone.

May 24, 2024 Posted by | business and costs, Ukraine, USA, weapons and war | Leave a comment

Soaring costs are likely for planned Wylfa nuclear station, but EDF, Westinghouse, Kepco clamour to build it

An EDF spokesman described Wylfa as a “fantastic site” and said it
wanted to bid to build the new plant. However, it is expected to face
competition from Westinghouse, an American company, and Kepco, South
Korea’s largest electrical utility firm.

The costs of the new plant are uncertain. Hinkley Point C was originally costed at £18bn but overruns have already pushed that up to at least £46bn. With several more years of
construction needed, final costs are expected to exceed £50bn –
equivalent to about £1,800 per UK home. Hinkley developer EDF is liable
for the extra costs.

The Wylfa B plant is also likely to be financed under
the RAB system which means consumers will see bill increases for Wylfa B
and Sizewell C before either generates any power. Alison Downes, of Stop
Sizewell C, said: “The Government seems determined to double down on
gigawatt nuclear, the slowest most expensive energy source to build, which
the British public – in the form of taxpayers and consumers – will be
forced to pay for.

“We send our empathy to the people of Anglesey who
will be forced to fight yet another inappropriate development. Our advice
is to take very little of what is promised in the form of ‘community
benefits’ at face value.”

Andrew Bowie, the minister for nuclear
energy, was on Wednesday scheduled to meet with the Nuclear
Non-Governmental Organisation Forum to hear various groups’ concerns over
the expansion of nuclear energy. However, he cancelled the meeting at short
notice as news of the Wylfa plan emerged.

 Telegraph 21st May 2024
 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/05/21/anglesey-host-britain-third-new-nuclear-power-station/

May 23, 2024 Posted by | politics, UK | Leave a comment

Julian Assange’s five-year battle against extradition to the US continues as he WINS last-ditch legal battle to lodge appeal

‘Today is a victory, but part of the victory only.’

‘Today marks a turning point. We went into court and we sat and heard the United States fumbling through their arguments, trying to paint lipstick on a pig.

‘We are relieved as a family that the courts took the right decision today but how long can this go on for?

Daily Mail, By GEORGE ODLING and ELIZABETH HAIGH, 21 May 24

WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange‘s five-year battle against extradition to the US for espionage charges continues after he won a last-ditch legal battle to appeal.

‘Well, the judges were not convinced. Everyone can see what is going on here. The United States’ case is offensive.

‘It offends our democratic principles, it offends our right to know, it’s an attack on journalists everywhere.

‘We are relieved as a family that the courts took the right decision today but how long can this go on for? Our eldest son just turned seven.

‘All their memories of their father are in the visiting hall of Belmarsh prison, and as the case goes along, it becomes clearer and clearer to everyone that Julian is in prison for doing good journalism, for exposing corruption, for exposing the violations on innocent people in abusive wars for which there is impunity.

There were gasps of relief from the Australian’s wife and other supporters in the High Court as Dame Victoria Sharp said she and Mr Justice Johnson had decided they were not satisfied with assurances given by US prosecutors.

The judges had last month dismissed most of Assange’s legal arguments but said he would be able to bring an appeal on three grounds unless the US provided ‘satisfactory assurances.’

These were that Assange would be protected by and allowed to rely on the First Amendment, that his trial would not be prejudiced by his nationality and that the death penalty would not be imposed.

Dame Victoria told the court they were not satisfied Assange was guaranteed protection under the First Amendment.

Speaking outside court, Assange’s wife Stella said the judges had made the ‘right decision’, adding: ‘He should be given the Nobel prize and he should walk freely with the sand beneath his feet. He should be able to swim in the sea again. Free Assange.’

Delivering the ruling, Dame Victoria told the court: ‘We have carefully considered the submissions made in writing and orally.

‘First, in respect of the appeal under section 103 of the Extradition Act, we have decided to give leave to appeal on grounds four and five.’

Assange’s lawyer, Edward Fitzgerald KC, said he was satisfied with assurances that if the WikiLeaks founder was extradited and convicted he would not face the death penalty.

But lawyers for the US said that the fact that Assange is accused of illegally obtaining and disseminating confidential defence information means he was not guaranteed protection by the First Amendment regardless of nationality.

In written submissions, he said: ‘The position of the US prosecutor is that no-one, neither US citizens nor foreign citizens, are entitled to rely on the First Amendment in relation to publication of illegally obtained national defence information giving the names of innocent sources to their grave and imminent risk of harm.’

This principle applies to both US and non-US citizens irrespective of their nationality, he added.

The US has provided an assurance that if extradited, Assange ‘will be entitled to the full panoply of due process trial rights, including the right to raise, and seek to rely upon, the first amendment as a defence.’

Assange’s wife, Stella, has previously dismissed this pledge as ‘weasel words.’

The ruling will no doubt increase calls in Assange’s native Australia for the government to intervene on his behalf. 

More than a hundred supporters gathered outside the Royal Courts of Justice to wave banners emblazoned with logos including ‘If Assange goes, free speech goes with him.’

Assange declined to attend the hearing but Mrs Assange sat next to his father John Shipton in the well of court 4.

Supporters of Julian Assange cheered as news of the decision to allow his appeal against extradition to the United States filtered out of the courtroom.

Hundreds of people gathered outside the Royal Courts of Justice in London, with many holding signs, flags and banners, while a band is also playing music.

Several speakers addressed crowds on a stage erected adjacent to the court building, with one telling supporters: ‘Today is a victory, but part of the victory only.’

Following the decision, one man with a megaphone said to Assange supporters: ‘We have to do more.’

Among the supporters chanting ‘Free Julian Assange’ were former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and Labour MP Apsana Begum. 

Kaylaa Sandwell travelled from east London to attend the rally and said: ‘It was obvious from the beginning that they want to silence him and I think he’s a very honest man, and he’s spoken up for us, so we need to really support that.

‘He needs to be freed because he hasn’t done anything wrong. 

‘If he doesn’t get freed, we won’t have a free press anymore.’

Speaking outside the Royal Courts of Justice after Julian Assange won a bid to bring an appeal against his extradition to the United States, his wife, Stella Assange, said that judges ‘reached the right decision’ and called on the US to drop the ‘shameful’ case.

She said: ‘Today marks a turning point. We went into court and we sat and heard the United States fumbling through their arguments, trying to paint lipstick on a pig.

‘Well, the judges were not convinced. Everyone can see what is going on here. The United States’ case is offensive.

‘It offends our democratic principles, it offends our right to know, it’s an attack on journalists everywhere.

‘We are relieved as a family that the courts took the right decision today but how long can this go on for? Our eldest son just turned seven.

‘All their memories of their father are in the visiting hall of Belmarsh prison, and as the case goes along, it becomes clearer and clearer to everyone that Julian is in prison for doing good journalism, for exposing corruption, for exposing the violations on innocent people in abusive wars for which there is impunity.

On top of that impunity they have gone after the man who put that impunity onto the public record.

‘The Biden administration should distance itself from this shameful prosecution, it should have done so from day one, but it may be running out of time to do the right thing.

‘Everyone can see what should be done here. Julian must be freed. The case should be abandoned. He should be compensated.

‘He should be given the Nobel prize and he should walk freely with the sand beneath his feet. He should be able to swim in the sea again. Free Assange.’

She continued: ‘The judges reached the right decision. We spent a long time hearing the United States putting lipstick on a pig, but the judges did not buy it.

‘As a family we are relieved, but how long can this go on? The United States should read the situation and drop this case now.’

The 52-year-old was indicted by a US grand jury in 2018 on 17 espionage charges and a charge of unlawful use of a computer, which Assange’s lawyers claim could see him sentenced to 175 years in jail.

American prosecutors allege that the Australian encouraged and helped former US army intelligence analyst Chelsea Manning to steal the cables, which they claim put the lives of covert sources around the globe at risk.

President Joe Biden has faced persistent pressure to drop the case filed by his predecessor Donald Trump.

Assange had previously lived inside the Ecuadorian Embassy in Knightsbridge, west London, for almost seven years until he was eventually dragged out in 2019 when the Ecuadorian government withdrew his asylum.

He entered as a fugitive in 2012 to avoid extradition to Sweden on sexual assault charges, which he denied and which Sweden dropped in 2019………………………………………………………………………. more https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13438235/julian-assange-wikileaks-death-penalty-high-court.html

May 23, 2024 Posted by | Legal, UK | Leave a comment

Nuclear-free councils hit out at ‘mad delusion’ of new reactor

“Instead of wasting cash and time on nuclear, the Scottish NFLAs believe the money and effort would first be far better spent insulating all domestic properties and public buildings to the highest standard to improve energy efficiency, reduce energy consumption and minimise or eliminate fuel poverty, as well as investing in more renewable energy generating capacity and battery storage.”

“

 By Alan Hendry  alan.hendry@hnmedia.co.uk, 21 May 2024,   https://www.northern-times.co.uk/news/nuclear-free-councils-hit-out-at-mad-delusion-of-new-react-351234/

Calls for a nuclear revival in Scotland – including the possibility of a new Dounreay reactor – have been dismissed as “folly” and a “mad delusion”.

Scottish Nuclear Free Local Authorities (NFLAs), a grouping of councils opposed to civil nuclear power, insisted that renewables “represent the only way forward to achieve a sustainable, net-zero future”.

The secretary of state for Scotland, Alister Jack, confirmed last week that he had asked the UK energy minister to plan for a new nuclear site north of the border as part of a nationwide strategy.

Dounreay had been put forward among the possible locations for a small modular reactor (SMR), a series of 10 power stations that engineering giant Rolls-Royce was planning to build by 2035.

Jamie Stone, the Liberal Democrat MP for Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross, was quick to press the case for Dounreay to be considered. After a conversation with the Scottish secretary, Mr Stone claimed there was “all to play for”.

Dounreay is being decommissioned, with the end date for the nuclear clean-up now extended to the 2070s.

A proposal that Highland Council should sign up to NFLAs came to nothing in 2019 after some Caithness councillors condemned the idea. Scottish councils that are part of NFLAs are Dundee, East Ayrshire, Edinburgh, Fife, Glasgow, Midlothian, North Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire, Shetland Islands, West Dunbartonshire and Western Isles.

In a statement, Scottish NFLAs said a new focus on nuclear generation would put the UK government at odds with the Scottish Government as the SNP remains “implacably opposed” to the construction of any new nuclear fission plants in Scotland.

“To the NFLAs, an investment in any nuclear would not only be folly, but a lamentable diversion of effort from achieving the credible goal of supplying 100 per cent of Scotland’s electricity from renewables,” the group said.

“Nuclear power plants are enormously expensive to build and notorious for their cost and delivery overruns.”

Scottish NFLAs maintained that “none of the competing SMR designs has yet received the required approvals from the nuclear regulator to even be deployed in the UK” and “the necessary finance has yet to be put in place”.

It went on: “SMRs are estimated to cost £3 billion each, but cost overruns are notorious in the nuclear industry, and the earliest any approved and financed SMR would come onstream would be in the early 2030s.

“Nuclear plants are also incredibly expensive to decommission, and the resultant radioactive waste must be managed at vast expense for millennia.

“Instead of wasting cash and time on nuclear, the Scottish NFLAs believe the money and effort would first be far better spent insulating all domestic properties and public buildings to the highest standard to improve energy efficiency, reduce energy consumption and minimise or eliminate fuel poverty, as well as investing in more renewable energy generating capacity and battery storage.”

Scottish NFLAs said Scotland could become “a powerhouse” with surplus renewable energy being exported to England and continental Europe via interconnectors.

It added: “To realise this, the Scottish NFLAs would like to see the Scottish Government recommit to establishing a state-owned renewable energy company to invest in this potential and to generate an income for the nation.

“The Scottish NFLAs believe that if the secretary of state for Scotland genuinely wants to see a sustainable, net-zero future for Scotland he should call for the British government to get behind the Scottish Government in backing this strategy, instead of maintaining his mad delusion for nuclear.”

May 23, 2024 Posted by | opposition to nuclear, politics, UK | Leave a comment

Yet another university co-opted by the nuclear industry

Teesside University to set out benefits of X-energy site at Hartlepool

Teesside University is to help set out the huge regional economic benefits of a multi-billion pound nuclear power station project in Hartlepool.

Northern Echo, Mike Hughes, 22nd May 24

X-energy and Cavendish Nuclear have commissioned the university to look at the opportunities – including jobs, skills, supply chain contracts, and investment – led by Professor Matthew Cotton, Professor of Public Policy.

The work is part funded by the UK Government which awarded the firms £3.34m in April this year from the Department of Energy Security and Net Zero’s Future Nuclear Enabling Fund.

This was matched by X-energy which aims to build its Xe-100 advanced modular reactor plant, by the early 2030s, next to Hartlepool’s existing Nuclear Power Station which is scheduled to close this decade.

The assessment is part of a £6.68m programme of work the companies are jointly undertaking to prepare for the proposed roll out of around 40 Xe-100 power stations across the UK……………………………….  https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/24333214.teesside-university-set-benefits-x-energy-site-hartlepool/

May 23, 2024 Posted by | Education, UK | Leave a comment

UKRAINE DARKNESS: Zelensky’s Mandate Expires Today – Streets Are Empty as Men Hide From New Conscription Law

Paul Serran, The Gateway Pundit, 2024-05-22 

And so we’ve come to the point of the war in Ukraine in which the west’s ‘Knight in Shining armor’, the ‘defender of democracy’ Volodymyr Zelensky has outrun his Constitutional Presidential mandate, and is now in power only by virtue of the martial law he enacted.

That is just the most dramatic of the absolutely disheartening (for Kiev) series of developments.

To begin with, a series of videos have surfaced showing how the streets of Ukraine now are deserted, with men hiding from conscription into the army – and somehow, everyone else seemed to have stayed at home, too.

Deserted streets as the new mobilization law came into force on May 18th.

In the context of the rapidly progressing Russian Federation forces, even deep-state aligned papers like WaPo feel compelled to report on the shitshow.

They are catching up to TGP’s report on the abnormal powers held by Zelensky’s top aide Andrey Yermak. So now, they’ve come as far as writing:

“If actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelensky’s top credential when he was elected in 2019 was that he’d played a president on TV, the top qualification of his all-powerful chief of staff, Andrey Yermak, was being Zelensky’s friend.”

Ouch. WaPo discusses how martial law, has concentrated extraordinary authority in the presidential administration, ‘making Yermak perhaps the most powerful chief of staff in the country’s history — virtually indistinguishable from his boss’.

Washington Post reported:

“Yermak’s closeness to the president — and evident influence over him — has drawn a barrage of accusations: that he has undemocratically consolidated power in the president’s office; overseen an unneeded purge of top officials, including commander in chief Gen. Valery Zaluzhny; restricted access to Zelensky; and sought personal control over nearly every big wartime decision.

Now, however, the legitimacy of the president and his top adviser are about to face even bigger challenges as Zelensky’s five-year term officially expires on May 20. Ukraine’s constitution prohibits elections under martial law. But as Zelensky stays in office, he will be vulnerable to charges that he has used the war to erode democracy — seizing control over media, sidelining critics and rivals, and elevating Yermak, his unelected friend, above career civil servants and diplomats.”

Eminence grise Yermak controls which officials can travel abroad and when; has sidelined the Foreign Ministry; interfered in military decisions – and brokered key deals with the United States.

His brother Denys was caught on video using his family ties to sell positions in Zelensky’s administration.

WaPo woke up to the fact that the Defender of Democracy put all six major Ukrainian television stations to broadcast the same news content 24 hours a day, called ‘the United News Telemarathon’.

And, of course, as we spoke at the beginning, there’s the ‘small detail’: Zelensky’s mandate expires today.

“’The Russians will use this’, one longtime Ukrainian official said of Zelensky’s expiring term. To maintain legitimacy, Zelensky ‘must have trust’, this official said, speaking, as many others did for this article, on the condition of anonymity to preserve political relations and to avoid retribution.”

Zelensky’s legitimacy is a question to Moscow as well, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared.

Putin explained that Zelensky’s status has a bearing on any potential agreement between the countries.

RT reported:

“Speaking at a press conference while on a state visit in China on Friday, President Putin said the issue of Zelensky’s legitimacy is something that ‘Ukraine’s own political and legal system’ must address, ‘first of all the Constitutional Court’. He noted that the country’s constitution foresees ‘different variants’.…………………………………..https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/05/ukraine-darkness-zelenskys-mandate-expires-today-streets-are/

May 23, 2024 Posted by | politics, Ukraine | Leave a comment

University of Sheffield gets into the nuclear debt web, partnering with Rolls Royce to make “small” nuclear reactors

New facility will help de-risk and underpin the Rolls-Royce SMR programme

( De-Risking, is a strategy that companies apply when they cannot manage the money laundering risks that they have obligations to. )

Mirage News, 21 May 24

  • The University of Sheffield and Rolls-Royce SMR are setting up a multi-million pound manufacturing and testing facility in South Yorkshire
  • Based in the University of Sheffield AMRC’s Factory 2050, the new facility will produce prototype modules for small modular reactors (SMRs)
  • New facility will help de-risk and underpin the Rolls-Royce SMR programme that aims to deploy a fleet of factory-built nuclear power plants in the UK and across the world

…………………… The first phase, announced today, is worth £2.7 million and will be part of a wider £15+ million package of work that will further de-risk and underpin the Rolls-Royce SMR programme.

The new facility at the University of Sheffield AMRC will produce working prototypes of individual modules that will be assembled into Rolls-Royce SMR power plants.

The Rolls-Royce SMR programme is UK’s first home-grown nuclear technology for over a generation and today’s announcement is another vital step towards deploying a fleet of factory-built nuclear power plants in the UK and around the globe.

Victoria Scott, Rolls-Royce SMR’s Chief Manufacturing Engineer, said: “Our investment in setting up this facility and building prototype modules is another significant milestone for our business.

“Our factories will produce hundreds of prefabricated and pre-tested modules ready for assembly on site. This facility will allow us to refine our production, testing and digital approach to manufacturing – helping de-risk our programme and ensure we increase our delivery certainty.  https://www.miragenews.com/rolls-royce-smr-sheffield-uni-launch-new-1238675/

May 22, 2024 Posted by | business and costs, Education, UK | Leave a comment

Assange Wins Right to Appeal on 1st Amendment Issue

The High Court in London ruled Monday that Julian Assange can appeal his extradition to the U.S. on the grounds that he is being denied his First Amendment rights. 

May 20, 2024, By Joe Lauria in London Consortium News,  https://consortiumnews.com/2024/05/20/assange-wins-right-to-appeal-on-1a-issue/—

The High Court in London on Monday granted Julian Assange the right to appeal the order to extradite him to the United States on the grounds that the U.S. did not satisfy the court that it would allow Assange a First Amendment defense in a U.S. court. 

“We spent a lot of time listening to the United States putting lipstick on a pig, but the judges didn’t buy it,” Stella Assange told reporters outside the court building. “As a family we are relieved but how long can this go on? The United States should read the situation and drop the case now.”   

Assange has been imprisoned in London’s notorious Belmarsh Prison for more than five years on remand pending the outcome of his extradition.  He must now spend an untold number of more months in the maximum security prison awaiting the start of his appeal.

In that sense it was a bitter victory for Assange. He gets to stay in prison another year or more, Joe Biden doesn’t have to worry about a journalist showing up in chains in Alexandria, VA during a presidential campaign and of course Assange could lose his appeal and arrive in the U.S. at a more opportune time for Biden. 

In another sense, it was a victory for the supremacy of European law when it comes to free speech,

Background to Monday’s Action

The High Court in London on March 26 had ruled that Assange had three grounds to appeal, because 1). his extradition was incompatible with his free speech rights enshrined in the European Convention on Human Rights; 2.) that he might be prejudiced because of his nationality (not being given 1st Amendment protection as a non-American) and 3). because he had inadequate protection against the death penalty. (Without such protection Britain cannot extradite him.).

Rather than proceed with the appeal on those three grounds, the High Court gave the U.S. the chance, fours years after the extradition process began, to promise it would not use the death penalty, and to guarantee his free speech rights. 

Because it is an executive branch decision, the U.S. was able to assure the British government that it would not seek the death penalty, and Assange’s lawyers on Monday said they did not contest that.  Left unexplained, however, was why the British home office waited four years to seek what is normally a routine assurance in an extradition case. 

The free speech issue was more complicated because a decision about Assange asserting a First Amendment defense at trial will be up to a U.S. federal court and not the Department of Justice. Therefore the DOJ could not issue such an assurance on the free speech issue.

That ultimately led the two judges, Justice Jeremy Johnson and Victoria Sharp, to allow Assange to launch a formal appeal of his extradition because of an apparent violation of British extradition law, based on the European Convention on Human Rights, that requires the receiving country to allow an extradited person the right to free speech. 

Johnson and Sharp did not buy the convoluted argument of James Lewis KC for the United States, on why the U.S. should get their hands on Assange despite being unable to guarantee his freedom of expression.

Edward Fitzgerald KC, and Mark Summers KC, barristers for Assange, easily picked apart three pieces of Lewis’ somewhat desperate presentation:

  • pointing out how Lewis had misled the court by saying the U.S. assurance would allow Assange to rely on the First Amendment, when in fact it says he can “seek to rely” on it;
  • how none of a slew of case law Lewis cited to supposedly bolster his argument actually dealt with a trial, which of course Assange will, if he goes to the U.S.;
  • that saying Chelsea Manning was not able to invoke First Amendment rights in defense of leaking classified defense information meant Assange shouldn’t either was “nonsense” because Manning was a government whistleblower who had signed non-disclosure agreements and Assange is a publisher. 

The judges apparently also rejected a drawn-out, arcane and overly lawyered argument from Lewis about the difference between citizenship and nationality that to most laymen was nearly incomprehensible. 

A Watershed Moment

“This was a watershed moment in this very long battle,” said WikiLeaks Editor-in-Chief Kristinn at an event following the hearing. “Today marked the beginning of the end of the persecution.  The signaling from the courts here in London was clear to the U.S. government: We don’t believe your guarantees, we don’t believe in your assurances.”

1st Amendment & Espionage Act

The First Amendment is at the core of the unconstitutionality of the Espionage Act, which makes no exception for a journalist to possess and disseminate defense information. 

The Assange case could lead to a constitutional challenge of it, said Marjorie Cohn, former president of the National Lawyers’ Guild. That may be one reason the Department of Justice does not want Assange to invoke the First Amendment in court. 

The U.S.-U.K. Extradition Act “bars extradition if an individual might be prejudiced due to his nationality and due to the centrality of the First Amendment to his defense,” Cohn told CN Live! last month.  “If he’s not permitted to rely on the First Amendment because of his status as a foreign national, he’ll thereby be prejudiced, potentially very greatly prejudiced by reason of his nationality.”

Assange contends that if he’s given First Amendment rights, “the prosecution will be stopped,” Cohn said. “The First Amendment is therefore of central importance to his defense.”

Cohn added: ‘If he has the right to free expression and freedom of speech, then what he did, what he’s accused of doing, would not violate the law.”

[See: 1st Amendment Authorized Assange’s Possession of Classified Data]

Though allowing First Amendment rights at trial would be ultimately a judge’s decision, and not the executive branch’s, Assistant U.S. Attorney Gordon Kromberg, who is prosecuting Assange, has not only not indicated that he wouldn’t file a motion against it in court, but has said explicitly that non-U.S. citizens do not have First Amendment rights in the U.S. for acts committed abroad. 

A date has not yet been set for Assange’s appeal to begin.

May 21, 2024 Posted by | Legal, UK | Leave a comment

UK plans new nuclear plant in Scotland despite Scottish government opposition

the Scottish Parliament has the ability to block projects it opposes as planning powers are devolved.

17 MAY, 2024 BY THOMAS JOHNSON,  https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/uk-plans-new-nuclear-plant-in-scotland-despite-scottish-government-opposition-17-05-2024/

Recent parliamentary discussions have revealed the UK is exploring the possibility of constructing a new nuclear power plant in Scotland despite fierce opposition from the Scottish government.

The UK government secretary of state for Scotland Alister Jack revealed in a House of Lords committee meeting that discussions were taking place on siting a small modular reactor (SMR) north of the border and that it is part of UK-wide plan.

He said: “On the small nuclear reactors, I have asked the energy minister to plan for one in Scotland.

“I believe that in 2026 we’ll see a unionist regime again in Holyrood and they will move forward with that.”

He also made reference to the shortness of the “timescales in front of us”, which could either be regarding the breadth and speed required for the energy transition or to the looming General Election.

The subject was then brought up in Scottish Parliament’s first minister’s questions (FMQs) on Thursday 16 May.

During FMQs, Member of Scottish Parliament Rona Mackay asked: “Despite opposition from the democratically elected Scottish government, where Scotland does not need expensive nuclear power; we already have abundant natural energy resources, can the first minister advise whether the United Kingdom government has approached Scottish ministers about those apparent plans?

“Can he confirm that the Scottish government will oppose those plans and, instead, focus on Scotland’s substantial renewable energy potential?”

First minister John Swinney responded to say how he was appalled no mention of the discussions had been made to the Scottish government by the secretary of state for Scotland.

Swinney said: “I am often lectured in parliament about the importance of good intergovernmental relations. The secretary of state for Scotland has made no mention of the proposal to the Scottish government.

“That is utterly and completely incompatible with good intergovernmental working and is illustrative of the damaging and menacing behaviour of the secretary of state for Scotland.”

He continued: “The Scottish government will not support new nuclear power stations in Scotland.

“I was in Ardersier on Monday and the cabinet secretary for net zero and energy was in Nigg on Tuesday to support the announcements of formidable investments in Scotland’s renewable energy potential.

Those are massive investments that will bring jobs and opportunities to the Highlands and Islands and deliver green, clean energy for the people of Scotland. That is the government’s policy agenda, and we will have nothing to do with nuclear power.”

Nuclear in Scotland

Scotland already has a nuclear power plant, Torness in East Lothian, which is scheduled to be shut down by 2028, two years earlier than was planned when it was constructed.

Another nuclear power station located within the country, the Hunterston B plant in North Ayrshire, ceased operation in January 2022.

The UK has an ambition of generating a quarter of its electricity from nuclear power by 2050, which is to be delivered by new public body Great British Nuclear.

Currently, energy policy is run by the UK government but the Scottish Parliament has the ability to block projects it opposes as planning powers are devolved.

Department for energy security and net zero under secretary Andrew Bowie, said: “We can’t go beyond preliminary discussions because of the current Scottish government hampering us but if the planning block was lifted then we could make a site north of the border; one of the eight across the UK.”

A Scottish government spokesperson said: “The Scottish government is absolutely clear in defence of the devolution settlement, and in our opposition to the building of new traditional nuclear fission energy plants in Scotland under current technologies.

“Small modular reactors, while innovative in construction and size, still generate electricity using nuclear fission and therefore the process presents the same environmental concerns as traditional nuclear power plants.

“We believe that significant growth in renewables, storage, hydrogen and carbon capture provides the best pathway to net zero by 2045 and will deliver secure, affordable and clean energy supplies for Scotland’s households, business and communities.”

May 21, 2024 Posted by | politics, UK | Leave a comment

Julian Assange faces judgment day over US extradition

May 19, 2024,  https://michaelwest.com.au/julian-assange-faces-judgment-day-over-us-extradition/

A British court could give a final decision on whether WikiLeaks’ founder Julian Assange should be extradited to the United States over the mass leak of secret US documents – the culmination of 13 years of legal battles and detentions.

Two judges at the High Court in London are set to rule on Monday on whether the court is satisfied by US assurances that Assange, 52, would not face the death penalty and could rely on the First Amendment right to free speech if he faced a US trial for spying.

Assange’s legal team say he could be on a plane across the Atlantic within 24 hours of the decision, could be released from jail, or his case could yet again be bogged down in months of legal battles.

“I have the sense that anything could happen at this stage,” his wife Stella said during the week.

“Julian could be extradited or he could be freed.”

She said her husband hoped to be in court for the crucial hearing.

WikiLeaks released hundreds of thousands of classified US military documents on Washington’s wars in Afghanistan and Iraq – the largest security breaches of their kind in US military history – along with swathes of diplomatic cables.

In April 2010 it published a classified video showing a 2007 US helicopter attack that killed a dozen people in the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, including two Reuters news staff.

The US authorities want to put the Australian-born Assange on trial over 18 charges, almost all under the Espionage Act, saying his actions with WikiLeaks were reckless, damaged national security and endangered the lives of agents.

His many global supporters call the prosecution a travesty, an assault on journalism and free speech, and revenge for causing embarrassment. 

Calls for the case to be dropped have ranged from human rights groups and some media bodies to Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and other political leaders.

Assange was first arrested in Britain in 2010 on a Swedish warrant over sex crime allegations that were later dropped. 

Since then he has been variously under house arrest, holed up in Ecuador’s embassy in London for seven years, and held since 2019 in the top-security Belmarsh jail while he waited for a ruling on his extradition.

“Every day since the seventh of December 2010 he has been in one form of detention or another,” said Stella Assange, who was originally part of his legal team and married him in Belmarsh in 2022.

If the High Court rules the extradition can go ahead, Assange’s legal avenues in Britain are exhausted, and his lawyers will immediately turn to the European Court of Human Rights to seek an emergency injunction blocking deportation pending a full hearing by that court into his case at a later date.

On the other hand, if the judges reject the US submissions, Assange will have permission to appeal his extradition case on three grounds, and that might not be heard until 2025.

It is also possible the judges could decide that Monday’s hearing should consider not just whether he can appeal but also the substance of that appeal.

If they find in his favour in those circumstances, he could be released.

Stella Assange said whatever the outcome, she would continue to fight for his liberty.

She plans to follow him to Australia or wherever he is safe if he is freed. 

If he is extradited, she said all the psychiatric evidence presented at court had concluded he was at serious risk of suicide.

“We live from day to day, from week to week, from decision to decision,” she told Reuters.

“This is a way that we’ve been living for years and years.

“This is just not a way to live – it’s so cruel. 

“And I can’t prepare for his extradition – how could I? 

“But if he’s extradited, then I’ll do whatever I can, and our family is going to fight for him until he’s free.”

May 21, 2024 Posted by | Legal, UK | Leave a comment

Greenpeace Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) condemn Russian government plans to restart nuclear reactors at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant

 https://www.greenreconstruction.com/news/russian-government-publishes-first-detailed-plans-for-restart-of-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant—greenpeace-condemns-nuclear-blackmail 18 May 24

Russian government publishes first detailed plans for restart of Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant – Greenpeace condemns nuclear blackmail.

Kyiv, May 17, 2024 – Greenpeace Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) condemns in the strongest possible terms the plans of Rosatom, the Russian State Nuclear Corporation, and the Russian government to proceed with the restart of nuclear reactors at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. The first details of Rosatom’s plans are contained in an official document submitted to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) by the Russian government on 14 May, 2024 [1]. The submission reveals plans for the construction of a large pumping station, designed to supply water for the nuclear plant. Following the demolition of the Nova Kakhovka dam on 6 June 2023, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant no longer was able to access water from the Kakhovka reservoir. The six reactors at Zaporizhzhia have been shut down since 2022. In an analysis published in February 2024, Greenpeace CEE warned that the nuclear plant site would require a new pumping system to extract water from the Dnipro river channels near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. [2]

“Since Russia attacked, damaged and occupied the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant on March 4, 2022, the risk of a nuclear disaster has been high. But if plans proceed to restart reactors at the plant the level of risk and the consequences will be much more severe. This submission to the IAEA is outrageous, with Russia claiming that its, “main task is to prevent threats to the safety and security of the plant created by the Kyiv regime.”  No – the threat of a nuclear disaster is entirely due to Russia’s war and occupation of the plant – and this is another case of Russian nuclear blackmail which has the potential to explode across Ukraine and Europe,” said Shaun Burnie, nuclear specialist at Greenpeace Central and Eastern Europe.

The Russian submission to the IAEA discloses for the first time that a pumping station is to be constructed. The station would have capacity to supply up to 18,000 cubic meters of water per hour to the cooling pond. Greenpeace analysis has indicated two potential locations for the new pumping station.

In February 2024, Greenpeace CEE in its analysis of the many obstacles to restart, focused on the water problem, and urged the IAEA Director General to take a strong position against any Russian plans for restarting the Zaporizhzhia reactors. In March 2024, Greenpeace issued a warning that restart of one or more reactors at the nuclear plant site could lead to a disaster greater than Fukushima or even Chornobyl.[3] Last month, Greenpeace International wrote wrote to the IAEA Director General, Rafael Mariano Grossi, seeking assurances that the IAEA will not in any way facilitate Rosatom in the restart the reactors at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.(4)

“Rosatom has no legal authority to operate the Zaporizhzhia plant – that lies entirely with the Ukrainian regulator and owner. It also lacks a sufficient number of skilled and qualified workers familiar with the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. For more than two years maintenance of critical installations has been wholly inadequate and on eight occasions the plant has lost all off site electrical power due to the war. The electricity supply is essential for the water cooling pumps to the reactors and spent nuclear fuel as well as other safety systems and remains highly unstable. The water supply to the cooling pond has been significantly compromised since the destruction of Nova Kakhovka dam by the Russian armed forces. Restarting one or more reactors in such a situation is not only outrageous it shows a blatant disregard for nuclear safety protocols. Urgent efforts by the international community, including the IAEA, must be made to stop these plans from being implemented,” said Jan Vande Putte, nuclear specialist at Greenpeace Belgium.

Greenpeace CEE is campaigning for comprehensive European Union sanctions against Rosatom and their nuclear partners in Europe and worldwide and actively supporting the development of renewable energy in Ukraine. 

For further information:

Daryna Rogachuk, communication officer
daryna.rogachuk@greenpeace.org

1 – Communication from the Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to the Agency, INFCIRC/1208, 15 May 2024, see www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/publications/documents/infcircs/2024/infcirc1208.pdf

2  – Greenpeace CEE, Is Rosatom Planning The Restart Of Zaporozhzhia Reactor(s)?, 3 February 2024, see https://drive.google.com/file/d/1mipUyMmnA0XXlD57UOQfduYkvj6LcANb/view

3 – Greenpeace Germany, Second anniversary of Russia’s nuclear plant attack in Ukraine, 5 March 2024, see https://www.greenreconstruction.com/news/second-anniversary-of-russias-nuclear-plant-attack-in-ukraine

4 – Greenpeace CEE, Grim anniversary: Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant must not become the next Chornobyl, 26 April 2024, see https://greenpeace.at/cee-press-hub/chornobyl-38-anniversary/

May 21, 2024 Posted by | Ukraine | Leave a comment

A New Russian Offensive Stretches Ukrainian Forces. Possibly To The Breaking Point.

Just as important an explanation for Ukraine’s struggles is the lack of men. Ukrainian troops are outmanned and exhausted, and casualty rates are soaring.

Radio Free Europe, By Mike Eckel , May 17, 2024

Ukrainian civilians evacuated from border regions with Russia. An important east-west highway in the eastern Donetsk region threatened by encroaching Russian forces. A village captured by Ukraine during last year’s counteroffensive about to return to Russian control. Ukraine’s president cancels all foreign trips.

The news from Ukraine’s battlefield these days is grim: Russia is advancing. Ukraine is struggling to hold its positions, if not outright retreating.

Still, there’s little doubt that Ukraine’s exhausted, outmanned, and possibly still-outgunned forces are struggling in a way not seen possibly since the opening days of the invasion.

“By stretching Ukrainian forces along a wide front, Russia is overcoming the limitations of its undertrained army,” Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said in a report released this week. “Russia has now started the early phases of its anticipated summer offensive with renewed attacks on Kharkiv.”

Here’s where things stand at present on Ukraine’s battlefield.

Ukrainian forces were already under severe pressure in several locations along the 1,100-kilometer front line even before Russia launched a localized offensive north of Ukraine’s second largest city, Kharkiv, last week. Troops moved into a “gray zone” — Ukrainian territory that’s not fully controlled by either Ukrainian or Russian forces. On May 16, Russian units appeared to have entered the town of Vovchansk, about 5 kilometers from the border, and the site of the fiercest fighting in the north.

By some estimates, the amount of territory Ukrainian troops have ceded in recent months is greater than the earliest months after the full Russian invasion in February 2022.

Western military officials, however, downplay Russian chances for a wider breakthrough.

“They don’t have the skill and the capability to do it, to operate at the scale necessary to exploit any breakthrough to strategic advantage,” U.S. Army General Christopher Cavoli said on May 17. “They do have the ability to make local advances and they have done some of that.”

Still, there’s little doubt that Ukraine’s exhausted, outmanned, and possibly still-outgunned forces are struggling in a way not seen possibly since the opening days of the invasion.

“By stretching Ukrainian forces along a wide front, Russia is overcoming the limitations of its undertrained army,” Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said in a report released this week. “Russia has now started the early phases of its anticipated summer offensive with renewed attacks on Kharkiv.”

Here’s where things stand at present on Ukraine’s battlefield.

What’s Happening On The Ground?

After Ukraine’s much-hyped counteroffensive fizzled late last year both sides began retooling and resupply, girding for the next major clashes. Russia, however, seized the initiative to push into the industrial city of Avdiyivka, where Ukraine was able to threaten the Russian-controlled regional administrative center of Donetsk to the southeast. The city fell to Russian forces in February.

Last month, Russian troops took advantage of a Ukrainian troop rotation — some reports say botched — and pushed northwest of Avdiyivka to take control of the village of Ocheretyne. Creeping north and northwest, Russian forces have moved closer to threatening the N32 highway, which runs from Pokrovsk, northeast to the railway town of Kostyantynivka.

Just east of Kostyantynivka is Chasiv Yar, a village on high ground that Russia is hellbent on capturing.

Ukrainian forces have repelled the effort so far, in part by using a water canal that runs through its eastern district as a holding line. Captain Oleh Kalashnikov, a spokesman for the 26th Separate Mechanized Brigade, told Current Time that Russia had fielded as many as 25,000 troops, including elite paratroop units, in their push to take the city.

Seizing Chasiv Yar would allow Russia to threaten Kostyantynivka and its rail and roadway used by Ukraine to resupply its forces. It would crack the door toward Kramatorsk to the north, and Slovyansk, both large population centers and redoubts of Ukrainian troops and supplies.

On May 10, meanwhile, Russian infantry crossed the border north and northeast of Kharkiv, attacking in two different locations, seizing a handful of small settlements, and opening a new front The village of Vovchansk came under some of the worst shelling, forcing rescuers to rush to evacuate civilians………………………………………………

Hundreds of kilometers to the southwest, in the Zaporizhzhya region, Russian forces claimed to have retaken Robotyne, one of a handful of villages that Ukraine succeeded in capturing in its counteroffensive — their biggest to date. Ukrainian officials denied the claim, but if the village does fall, its loss would be a symbolic blow.

“It’s a challenging situation on the battlefield right now in Ukraine,” U.S. Major General Pat Ryder, a Pentagon spokesman, said this week.

“The Russians have exploited the situation on the battlefield, and are attempting to make advances,” he said. “Incremental as they may be, it’s certainly concerning.”

Why Is It Happening?

Continue reading →

May 21, 2024 Posted by | Russia, Ukraine, weapons and war | Leave a comment

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