Nuclear – not the way ahead

12 Oct 24 https://renewextraweekly.blogspot.com/2024/10/nuclear-not-way-ahead.html

Renewable energies consistently outperform nuclear power in terms of cost and deployment speed and are therefore chosen over nuclear power in most countries’ – so says this years independent World Nuclear Industry status report (WNISR). It notes that in 2023, 5 new nuclear reactors (5 GW) started up and 5 were closed (6 GW), capacity thus declining by 1 GW. So overall it says that nuclear energy’s share of global commercial gross electricity generation declined from 9.2 % to 9.1%, little more than half of its peak of 17.5 % in 1996. In 2023, total investment in non-hydro renewable electricity capacity reached a record US$623 billion, 27 times the reported global investment decisions for the construction of nuclear power plants, with solar and wind power capacities growing by 73% and 51%, respectively.

Nevertheless, some countries are still pushing on with new nuclear, despite its poor economics, including the UK and Sweden. Sweden has mooted a new financing model but its critics say support for nuclear ‘is like throwing money down the drain’ since ‘the expansion of solar energy will make nuclear power obsolete and push it out of the electricity market by the 2030s’. In the UK, and also in France,  it has been argued that part of the reason for the political commitment to new nuclear is link between civil and military nuclear, with cross-funding and technical collaboration seen as beneficial.

However, be that as it may, Emeritus Profs. Stephen Thomas (University of Greenwich) and Andrew Blowers (OU) do not see nuclear civil power prospering in the UK, indeed they say that ‘it is time to expose the Great British nuclear fantasy once and for all.’ They claim that ‘no amount of political commitment can overcome the lack of investors, the absence of credible builders and operators or available technologies let alone secure regulatory assessment and approval. Moreover, in an era of climate change there will be few potentially suitable sites to host new nuclear power stations for indefinite, indeed unknowable, operating, decommissioning and waste management lifetimes. And there are the anxieties and fears that nuclear foments, the danger of accidents and proliferation and the environmental and public health issues arising from the legacy of radioactive waste scattered on sites around the country’.   

They go on to suggest backing off new nuclear projects. They do recognise that ‘abandoning Sizewell C and the SMR competition will lead to howls of anguish from interest groups such as the nuclear industry and trade unions with a strong presence in the sector. It will also require compensation payments to be made to organisations affected. However, the scale of these payments will be tiny in comparison with the cost of not abandoning them’. 

Certainly the cost of construction is vast- and expanding. The EPR being built by EDF  at Hinkley Point may in the event cost £35bn, with there’s still being a way to go- 2030 for unit 1 start up, maybe 2031 for Unit 2. And as industry commentators have noted ‘as the cost of Hinkley Point has increased, the backers have had to provide more funding. The souring of relations between Britain & China saw CGN stop providing any more money, leaving EDF to fund the shortfall. EDF has called upon the UK government to help out with the escalating cost but it has refused. EDF was fully nationalised in 2023, leaving the French taxpayer to pick up the tab for the cost overruns’. 

UK consumers will of course pay the high cost of the power when it comes on the grid. They will also be expected to shell out for the next EPR that is planned in the UK, at Sizewell, but this time in advanced of completion, under the RAB financing system. However, although the government has provided £5.5bn to move things along, the final (private) investment decision on Sizewell C keeps being delayed. EDF aimed to secure funding by the end 2024, but that may now be extended to 2025 – and EDF is still looking for £4bn to finish Hinkley Point!

All in all, with EDF’s finances in a mess, and few other companies keen to take risks with this technology, it looks a bit uncertain. Even the UK government seems to be having doubts, with plans for a new large project on Wylfa in Wales may be subject to a review.  Proposals are currently being considered for small modular reactors under a UK SMR competition, but the US NuScale PWR has just been eliminated from the race. It was once seen as the leader, but it had lost a US order. EDF had earlier dropped out. So that leaves Rolls-Royce, GE-Hitachi, Westinghouse, and Holtec Britain, with the newly formed agency, Great British Nuclear, expected to announce 2 winners later this year or early next year. Up to £20bn is at stake. However few see any power being available anywhere from SMRs until the early or mid 2030s. Despite a lot of hype, in reality it has been slow going. And there are risks. 

Overall then, the prospects for new nuclear in the UK, or indeed elsewhere, do not look too good. Even in China, renewables are expanding very much faster, with according to the WNISR/IRENA, at the end of 2023, there being over 1000GW of wind and solar and around 421GW of hydro in place, compared to just 53GW of nuclear. Given the scale and rate of deployment, and the costs, it’s pretty clear which should be the way forward in terms of energy supply there and everywhere else. 

Nuclear fission may have a small role to play in some isolated locations and in some applications, and fusion may be viable at commercial scale at some stage, but we have to be aware of hype and overselling in this area, and also in the wider nuclear debate, with nuclear sometimes being sold as the answer to climate change.  It’s not. As I have indicated in earlier posts, there is no shortage of studies from around the world confirming the view that nuclear is a costly and risky distraction from renewables, which are the main energy supply solutions to climate change. And Germany has shown how the exit from nuclear can be done, led by renewables. Although they do have some issues in terms of balancing, renewables, along with energy efficiency, demand management and storage, are the way ahead to an economically viable and sustainable energy future.

October 16, 2024 Posted by Christina Macpherson | renewable, UK | Leave a comment

Renewable Energy Surge Lowers UK Blackout Risk

The risk of blackouts in the winter months in the U.K. has fallen to its lowest in four years thanks to the rise of the country’s renewable energy capacity.

To ensure a steady supply of electricity to households, Neso will encourage consumers to reduce their energy use during peak times by offering financial incentives through its demand flexibility scheme.  

By Felicity Bradstock – Oct 12, 2024
https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/Renewable-Energy-Surge-Lowers-UK-Blackout-Risk.html

• The UK has significantly reduced its blackout risk by increasing renewable energy capacity and diversifying its energy sources.
• The closure of the UK’s last coal-fired power plant marks a major milestone in the country’s transition to clean energy.
• The government is actively encouraging energy conservation during peak times to further enhance grid stability.

The U.K. has been gradually boosting its energy security by increasing its renewable energy capacity while continuing to produce natural gas. It has done this while also moving away from the ‘dirtiest’ fossil fuel, coal. The diversification of the U.K.’s energy mix is helping the island country to develop its resilience and help it accelerate the green transition. Now, the government must ensure that the country’s transmission infrastructure is prepared for an influx of new clean energy projects in the coming years, and can reliably deliver clean energy to tens of millions of households across the U.K. 

The risk of blackouts in the winter months in the U.K. has fallen to its lowest in four years thanks to the rise of the country’s renewable energy capacity. The National Energy System Operator predicts that the U.K.’s winter power supplies will outpace demand by nearly 9 percent this year. Neso is the new company in charge of keeping the lights on, which was bought by the government in September from National Grid for $825.5 million. The boost in the power supply margin is supported by the recent deployment of large-scale battery storage projects, small-scale renewables and imported electricity, according to Neso. 

As well as producing greater quantities of clean energy at home, the U.K. has also begun importing renewable energy from Denmark through the world’s longest high-voltage power cable – the Viking power link. This cable now provides clean electricity for around 2.5 million U.K. homes, showing the significant potential for clean power sharing across countries. 

The optimistic forecast comes in spite of the closure last month of the U.K.’s last coal­-fired power plant. At the beginning of the year, the Ratcliffe-on-Soar coal plant was used to provide 2.3 percent of the country’s electricity supply during a period of cold weather. Britain kept its coal facilities on standby following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions on Russian energy, mainly natural gas, to ensure there would be power even in the face of severe gas shortages. However, there will be no such backup this year, and, according to Neso, no such need for a backup. 

Gas reserves across Europe have been restored to around 95 percent full. The U.K. is no longer dependent on Russia for its gas, having doubled down on its long-standing relationship with Norway for its LNG supply. Britain will now import gas via Norwegian pipelines and tanker from the U.S. and Qatar during the winter months to use in its power plants, factories and residential buildings. To ensure a steady supply of electricity to households, Neso will encourage consumers to reduce their energy use during peak times by offering financial incentives through its demand flexibility scheme. 

The U.K. was finally able to close its last coal-fired power plant in September, a target which was stated during the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow in 2021, after 142 years of reliance on coal. The U.K. was the birthplace of coal power, and it is the first G7 country to end coal production. The rapid transition away from a dependence on coal is impressive given that coal contributed 39 percent of the U.K.’s power in 2012. The U.K. established its first legally binding climate targets in 2008, which supported the phasing out of coal. In 2015, the then-energy and climate change secretary, Amber Rudd, stated that the country would stop using coal within the next decade. This has been made possible by the rapid expansion of the U.K.’s renewable energy capacity, with green energy rising to contribute over half of the country’s power in the first half of 2024, from just 7 percent in 2010. 

Most of the U.K.’s electricity came from renewable energy sources for the first time in 2020, at around 43 percent. The green energy mix consists mainly of wind, solar, bioenergy and hydroelectric sources. In 2023, wind power contributed 29.4 percent of the U.K.’s total electricity generation, biomass contributed 5 percent, solar power accounted for 4.9 percent and hydropower added 1.8 percent of the mix. While the U.K. is currently depending on a mix of homegrown green and fossil fuel energy, as well as imports of energy from renewables and natural gas, the government plans to dramatically increase its renewable energy capacity by the end of the decade to solidify the country’s energy security. This includes increasing offshore wind output to 50 GW and solar capacity to 70 GW, as well as developing new nuclear plants.

Investing in the diversification of the U.K.’s energy mix has helped the country boost its energy security, as well as move away from a heavy reliance on fossil fuels. As the U.K. undergoes a green transition, the government is working in collaboration with utilities and regulators to ensure that the country does not face shortages, particularly in the winter months. This is further supported by strong energy agreements with other countries in Europe, North America and the Middle East, which will help to alleviate the burden of instability associated with renewable energy sources.  

October 15, 2024 Posted by Christina Macpherson | renewable, UK | Leave a comment